Super Bowl XLVII Preview:….And The Winner Is??

Super Bowl XLVII

Super Bowl XLVII

Three nights from now, the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens will try to get some sleep knowing their lives will be different by the end of Sunday night. The boy-hood dream of becoming a Super Bowl champion will be realized by one group where the other will be roped off as the trophy presentation begins.  What color will the confetti be as the league assembles the champion’s podium??

For the most part the sporting world wants to know why Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers is not nervous. Its relatively easy, he’s playing the same offense he did in college. Under normal circumstances a young quarterback is spending his time learning a new offense along with learning the pro game. This game will be decided by the read option and the execution of it. Can the Baltimore defense squeeze this play down and minimize it’s effectiveness??

As we told you in the Ray Lewis Super Bowl preview article….this is the key to this game: In the Ravens defense, when they see this play, Lewis needs to stay on Frank Gore and the outside guys in Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, and Bernard Pollard have to be there to hit Kaepernick early to get his attention. Lewis out in space would definitely be a liability at this time. He, Haloti Ngata, and Terrence Cody have to take care of Frank Gore at the point of this play.

Dannell Ellerbe, Haloti Ngata, and Paul Kruger are as key as Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XLVII

Dannell Ellerbe, Haloti Ngata, and Paul Kruger are as key as Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XLVII

If the Ravens can prove to use the front 3 to eat up the blockers and limit Gore’s effectiveness on the read option, Lewis will be able to scrape from inside out if Ellerbe and Kruger can keep containment. This will have to be later in the game once the read option has been neutralized up front. This game may be won or lost on this premise. Lewis needs to flow from his Inside Linebacker position to the cut back point of this play with containment. If the 49ers can stretch the outside, Lewis will not be able to make it to that point to stop Kaepernick.

One wild card the 49er offense can play is RB LeMichael James, he lends a cutback ability and a bounce in or out of a running play that might be harder for Lewis to track. However will he be in enough plays to be that effective a decoy and make that much of an impact on this game. One of the 49er’s strengths is their offensive line. The movement they got on BJ Raji of the Packers in the divisional round was embarrassing. They moved him from left to right where RT Anthony Davis, and Guards Mike Iupati, and Alex Boone rooted him out of there playing too high. This group can move and they can block. If ever there was a game where Terrence “Mount” Cody needs to hold ground next to Haloti Ngata, this is it. Our CEO has often said Ngata is the best defensive lineman in the NFL for his ability to take on double team blocks low, defeat them and make the tackle in the backfield, while keeping blockers off Ray Lewis. Even if he doesn’t make the tackle, occupies the double team allowing Lewis to make the tackle, he’s done his job. Anything more is extra. Understand that Ngata had 50 tackles and 5 sacks from the interior. That is down from 2011′s 64 tackle performance but still enough to make his presence felt this Sunday.

The best linebacker on the field for Super Bowl XLVII won't be Patrick Willis or Ray Lewis. It's Navorro Bowman.

The best linebacker on the field for Super Bowl XLVII won’t be Patrick Willis or Ray Lewis. It’s Navorro Bowman.

The San Francisco 49ers front seven is as good as the Super Bowl has seen in the last ten years. Their linebackers are better than that Tampa unit that won Super Bowl XXXVII. Navorro Bowman just may be the best linebacker in the NFL although Patrick Willis gets most of the ink. If you’re not a Taylor Blitz Times regular it may come as a shock to you that Bowman has been  an All Pro now for back to back seasons even though he just made the Pro Bowl for the first time. Coaches and those that know like The Chancellor of football know this tackling machine can play the run (144 tackles) or the pass. It was Bowman that knocked down the 4th and 4 attempted pass to Roddy White at the end of the NFC Championship Game. He is going to be all over Ray Rice in this football game, whether its a flare pass or run. Willis will be there along with DT Justin Smith (64 tackles) to keep Raven rushing attempts to minimal gains. Watch for RB Bernard Pierce #30 to get a series or two as the lead back if Rice is ineffective early. The 49ers front seven is hard to crack.

Which brings us to the passing attack and the way that Super Bowl XLVII will be won. Coming into this game we have two front sevens playing heads up football but what about the back seven?? The 49ers passing game saved the day with the re-emergence of TE Vernon Davis in the NFC Championship Game. The question was was it a new wrinkle in the offense or an aberration. On a whole is the passing game enough to carry the 49ers to victory on a team that just made Peyton Manning and Tom Brady look pedestrian in back to back playoff games on the road?? The Ravens picked off those two Hall of Famers 5 times combined while on the road. Now they face a quarterback in his 10th start with Hall of Fame S Ed Reed lurking back there disguising his coverages. We don’t see it.

Ed Reed's crafty play at safety is a wildcard in Super Bowl XLVII. He will force Kaepernick into one mis-read interception in this game.

Ed Reed’s crafty play at safety is a wildcard in Super Bowl XLVII. He will force Kaepernick into one mis-read interception in this game.

The other hot hand in these playoffs is Joe Flacco. He’s passed for over 800 yards and 8 touchdowns in the three playoff games leading to this one. He has found the most success in the three receiver sets which have simplified his reads. One of the changes to the Ravens offense that no one is talking about is the firing of Cam Cameron and the play calling of former Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Caldwell. He used to shape the game plan for the Colts also so he knows what to call having participated in Super Bowl XLI & XLIV. Through this play selection, Flacco has been confident and delivered the football to TE Denni Pitta, WR Anquan Boldin, and WR Torrey Smith. Boldin provides a power mismatch on the outside with his experience but it’s his muscle in the slot that showed in the playoffs. He just bullied Patriot DBs when the ball was in the air.

In the end, the Ravens will force Kaepernick to win this game passing, unfortunately the Ravens should have the lead from being successful passing the football first, winning the game 31-27. The Baltimore Ravens will be the winners of Super Bowl XLVII

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Look for the Taylor Blitz Times new website in the near future and this logo.

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Super Bowl XLVII Preview: Joe Flacco – Transformation Into An Alpha Quarterback

Joe Flacco has come of age in the 2012 playoffs.

Joe Flacco has come of age in the 2012 playoffs.

Contrary to LaMarr Woodley’s opinion, the Baltimore Ravens have made it to the Super Bowl with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Even here, our CEO has had his issues with Joe Flacco who used to shrink a the enormity of the event. But something happened out in Denver that separated the Raven quarterback we once knew, to the confident play maker that has emerged.

For the whole of his career, Flacco plays well enough but always left you wondering. Every now and again he’d have a flash, like the last second touchdown pass to TJ Houshmandzadeh in week 4 of 2010 to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Yet when the season was on the line some 14 weeks later in the divisional round of the playoffs, Flacco played nervously and wouldn’t pass downfield. In this playoff loss he only completed 3 downfield passes in a 31-24 loss that seamed to seal his fate as a quarterback who couldn’t lead his team to a championship.

He appeared to be afraid to pull the trigger and kept checking the ball down to Ray Rice in that game. Its been the knock our CEO has had on him for years and we’ve talked about ad nauseum when covering the Ravens. http://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/07/13/2012-baltimore-ravens-preview/  He wasn’t going through his  progressions and getting the ball down the field when the plays were there. We spoke of a damaged fight or flight mechanism that had his nervous feet count 1, then 2 seconds then throw it to Ray Rice. There were games when a receiver would break open and the ball would be overthrown. He wouldn’t capitalize on these moments and would always keep the Ravens opponents in games by not putting them away. It happened in last year’s AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots as well.

Even when you look at his performance over this season, he only completed 59.7% of his passes for 22 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.  Rookie quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck out performed that throwing for 26 and 23 touchdowns respectively. He performed well in the wild card win over Indy with a 282 yards passing, 2 touchdown performance, but would he continue those ways against an AFC heavyweight. For his career he would beat the lessor teams and struggle against the better teams in the AFC playoffs. Why would the divisional tilt against the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning be any different?? The Broncos were on an 11 game winning streak and he had under-performed and lost to the elite quarterbacks in playoff games. He had said he was elite and now was going into the lion’s den at Invesco Field. It didn’t look good.

Flacco's coming out party in the AFC Divisional 38-35 defeat of the Denver Broncos.

Flacco’s coming out party in the AFC Divisional 38-35 defeat of the Denver Broncos.

In the game that will forever define him going forward, Flacco played a magnificent game. He was decisive and made every read while going through his progressions completing 18 of 34 for 331 yards and 3TDs. Where Ray Rice was 2nd on the team with 61 receptions, he didn’t catch a single pass in the 38-35 overtime thriller. When the play was there, he was on time and perfect like when he feathered a 59 yard bomb to Torrey Smith to tie the game at 7. However the clarion moment for him took place when he took the field with 1:09 left in the game and down 35-28. His team needed a touchdown and they had to cover 77 yards. On a 3rd and 3 Flacco dropped back and instead of his usual scared check down throw he launched a game tying bomb to Jacoby Jones for 70 yards and the tying touchdown with :41 left in regulation. Everyone of the 78,000 in the stadium were stunned along with the millions watching the game and Broncos S Rahim Moore. No one believed he would go deep.

SuperBowl47_SOR01a_2012_SCC_SRGBIt was the confidence in how he dropped back and delivered the football that was the most telling point of the play. He was sure of himself and the throw he executed will go down in NFL history. He carried that confidence into the AFC Championship Game in New England. Where for a second year he out-dueled Tom Brady throwing for 240 yards and 3 more touchdowns leading his team to Super Bowl XLVII. If you’re keeping count, Flacco’s thrown for over 800 yards, 8 touchdowns and no interceptions during this postseason. He’s buried the memories of losing in the playoffs to two of the most storied quarterbacks of his era in Manning and Brady.

So now he gets to wrap up this great postseason run in Super Bowl XLVII. Why would he get nervous now?? Everyone is talking about Colin Kaepernick, Ray Lewis, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore when the man poised to win the most valuable player award and possibly this game is wearing #5 for the Ravens. He now has the most road wins in playoff history with 6. On Sunday he’s going to try and join Eli Manning as the only quarterbacks with 7 or more postseason wins away from home. He’s flown under the radar this whole week and seems poised to do it again.

NEXT UP: SUPER BOWL XLVII GAME PREDICTIONS

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2012 NFC Championship Preview: San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The George Halas Trophy that is awarded to the NFC Champion.

The George Halas Trophy that is awarded to the NFC Champion.

Well we only have a few days left to see who will punch their ticket to New Orleans and Super Bowl XLVII. San Francisco comes in riding the emotional high of having vanquished the Green Bay Packers, behind Colin Kaepernick’s record-setting performance. Where the Falcons are starting to understand who they are in winning their first playoff game under the current coaching regime. This is the most intriguing match-up of the conference finals weekend.

In the divisional round we learned what Atlanta has grown accustomed to do, will carry over into the playoffs. Including last week, they had gone 8-2 in games decided by 7 points or less. That lass loss was a meaningless game to conclude the regular season. If you go back to the 4th game of the season, it matched what took place in last week’s game with Seattle. They were behind 28-27 with less than 1:00 to go when Matt Ryan led them to a last second field goal and a 30-28 come from behind victory.

The banter and hard hitting between Seattle and Atlanta could spawn a bitter playoff rivalry.

The banter and hard hitting between Seattle and Atlanta could spawn a bitter playoff rivalry.

Sure the first victory came against the Carolina Panthers but now the Falcons performed the encore in  the playoffs. Many fans didn’t care what they did until they made it to the playoffs. Many were  sure they were going to lose their first game before the playoffs even began. http://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/12/13/nfl-week-14-atlanta-falcons-v-houston-texans-a-matter-of-perception/ The Taylor Blitz Times believed in the Atlanta Falcons yet felt the Seahawks were playing better heading into last week’s game. However this was the game where “Matty Ice” and Coach Mike Smith came of age and won their first playoff game. Will they go into this conference championship brimming with the confidence of the team that left the field, or the tentative nervous bunch that watched a 20 point lead vanish in the fourth quarter??

One thing about the NFL playoffs, when the national media focuses on one aspect of a football team they normally overlook another. This is happening as we speak with all attention on Kaepernick, no one is covering the fact the 49ers are allowing 30 points per game on average in their last 4 games. In fact if you take out the win against the hapless Arizona Cardinals, that average jumps to 35.6!! What is happening to the great San Francisco defense??

Colin's 181 yard rushing performance was a transcendent performance.

Colin’s 181 yard rushing performance was a transcendent performance.

Remember the style of offense the Niners were running that kept their defense rested at the beginning of the season?? That isn’t the case any longer. For a team that finished 4th overall allowing 294.4 yards per game, it’s now allowing 406 to go with the 35.6 points given up in those 3!! Are you paying attention?? They are wearing out their own defense and now they have to go on the road for the NFC Championship Game. If you take out the 3 games we’re talking about, the 49ers gave up an average of just 256.6 yards per game in the other 14.

Now while everyone is giddy over the record-setting performance of the quarterback, let’s remember that happened at home. How did he fare in his last road game?? He was chased out of Seattle. Do we get that Kaepernick, or the one that torched the Patriots on Sunday night football?? Sandwiched between those two performances was a very forgettable road loss that is being ignored largely.

We said in our NFC South Preview http://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/08/27/2012-nfc-south-previews-predictions/ this was the time for Coach Smith’s 4 year plan to mature. Michael Turner is about to turn 30 and one of history’s finest tight ends in Tony Gonzalez is set to retire after the season. Now with the emergence of Jacquizz Rodgers as the change of pace back that can spell Michael Turner, the Falcons have more explosiveness on the field than with RB Jason Snelling. One of the unsung acquisitions that should pay off in this football game is CB Asante Samuel. He stepped in when Brent Grimes went down on IR and has been a key contributor. Do you realize that Samuel is the leading interceptor and yardage leader in NFL playoff history?? One lazy sideline pass can be disastrous against this group. They were the 5th most larcenist defense in the NFL with 20 interceptions and the Georgia Dome will be loud this Sunday.

Samuel is the NFL's all time post season interceptor, yardage, and touchdown leader.

Samuel is the NFL’s all time post season interceptor, yardage, and touchdown leader.

What was interesting was how slow the Packers were in adjusting in last week’s divisional playoff. This is the NFL and we have seen this type of quarterback before. Whether we’re talking 2002 Michael Vick, 1987 Steve Young, a 1987 John Elway, or a 1989 Randall Cunningham. The number one way to get after them were to clog their escape routes sending 5 to 6 rushers after them. After all, this defense has to chase Cam Newton twice a year so they’r equipped to do it. In Randall Cunningham’s case http://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/04/11/fritz-shurmurs-eagle-defense-the-birthplace-of-the-zone-blitz/ the Los Angeles Rams confused him with everyone up on the line of scrimmage. By the time he knew who was rushing and who was dropping, his team fell behind and the game was out of reach.

The one thing going for the 49ers last week was the fact that it was quiet and Packer pass rushers couldn’t get the jump on their offensive tackles. Expect more delayed blitzes and zone blitzes this week to accompany John Abraham off the corner with all the Georgia Dome crowd noise. Instead of defenders with their backs to Kaepernick in man to man, they will be facing him and should keep scrambles at a minimum gain. The Falcons will look to get Colin to look down at running lanes and his vision off the downfield receivers. That is a big no-no in the NFL.

One other axiom of the NFL as Nick Buoniconti once said about the NFL playoffs circa 1987 “What happens the week before, doesn’t necessarily happen the next week.” Eric Dickerson ran for a playoff record 248 yards in a divisional playoff in 1985, then lost in the NFC Championship Game. Anthony Carter caught a playoff record 227 yards passing in a divisional playoff in 1987, only to lose in the NFC Championship Game. Peyton Manning through for a record 457 yards (most ever in a regulation playoff game) in 2004 only to fall  in the divisional round against New England. You have the 1995 Buffalo Bills who rushed for a modern playoff record (post modern 1950 NFL) 341 yards in a Wild Card win over Miami, only to collapse in the AFC Divisional in Three Rivers. Then finally the 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars who scored the most points (post modern 1950 NFL) with 62 in the AFC Dvisional playoff only to lose in the AFC Championship Game.

The 49ers are going to depend on that type of performance by Kaepernick again and won’t get it early as they fall behind. Just like the other teams that had record setting performances in year’s past. The Falcons have two unheralded linebackers in Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas that can flat out run. Not only will the Atlanta Falcons get the early lead after forcing a few 3 and outs early….they should win the game 30-21. Atlanta will be making the trip to New Orleans.

By the way….look at what arrived in Atlanta today…

This year's George Halas NFC Championship Trophy  just arrived today in Atlanta.

This year’s George Halas NFC Championship Trophy just arrived today in Atlanta.

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NFC Divisional Playoff: Seattle Seahawks v Atlanta Falcons

Marshawn Lynch is the key to Seattle playing well today.

Marshawn Lynch is the key to Seattle playing well today.

The NFL playoffs this year have provided some great theater and with last night’s performance by the 49ers, one team went to bed with the knowledge they have beaten that opponent, making Super Bowl aspirations more real. If you thought the Seattle Seahawks were brimming with confidence heading into this playoff tilt in Atlanta, now they have to guard against looking past Matt Ryan and crew.

The one thing the Falcons have done is gone 7-2 in games decided by 7 points or less. This Achille’s heal could come back and haunt Atlanta if they play too close to the vest with the Seahawks today. The one thing the Falcons have not been accused of, is being a physical ball club.  They have to dominate with Michael Turner rushing the football.

Russell Wilson gets to face the 24th best defense in the NFL. Last week the Seahawks fell behind by 14, and roared back to win. Everyone has looked at their road record over the season and it’s misleading. They now have won 3 straight on the road. Won 8 of their last 9 games with their signature win coming against the 49ers. A team that they only lost 13-6 to when they were learning how to play on the road in Candlestick. To know that’s their opponents in the NFC Championship team with a win??

The Chancellor of Football picks the Seattle Seahawks in this playoff game. This is supposed to be the fifth year and the time for the Falcon Super Bowl plan to take effect but they weren’t prepared for such a physical team with big corners ready to take on Roddy White and Julio Jones. However Browner and Sherman will be up to the task. We tried to alert you to this team in week 14: http://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/12/15/nfl-week-14-nfc-west-not-the-sole-province-of-the-49ers/ and then further back in week 3: http://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/09/21/nfl-week-3-nfc-west-not-just-the-province-of-the-49ers/. This team has grown over the season and is at it’s zenith now. Seattle will win this game.

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AFC Divisional Playoff: Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

Peyton's Broncos face the Ravens defense in today's divisional match-up.

Peyton’s Broncos face the Ravens defense in today’s divisional match-up.

This is a very intriguing playoff match-up. The Denver Broncos have enjoyed a dream of a season in 2012 as Peyton Manning has delivered. Not since John Elway have they finished with a record as well as 13-3. Their defense finished ranked #2 in all of football yet The Chancellor is still not convinced. While it’s true they beat Baltimore in week 15, keep in mind Ray Lewis wasn’t there and neither was SS Bernard Pollard.

If you go back and look at that football game, Denver held a 10-0 lead when seconds before halftime, Flacco threw a lazy sideline pass. It was intercepted and returned for a touchdown and boom…17-0, the game was over.

One intriguing fact that no one thought of with Peyton going to Denver was his play in the cold throughout his career. He did have one great playoff game in 2003 on the road in Kansas City when the Colts won 38-31. He threw for 304 yards and 3TDs in that game yet had Edgerrin James with him who rushed for 125 yards. It was 40* at kickoff and he did lean on his running game in that one. Others in New England didn’t go so well. Remember 2003 & 2004?? The temperature will be in the 30s for this one…can he lean on his running game?

At 5’9, 200 lbs, we’re not sure Ronnie Hillman has enough rocks in his pockets to run hard in a playoff against Baltimore. Moreno should get the bulk of the carries in this one since he’s 215. Each of which have rushed under the league average of 4.0 at 3.8 and 3.9 respectively and they have fumbled 3 times. They’ll have to handle the football 30 times or more to keep control of the game. Yet neither has been a playoff starter before… how will nerves and the Baltimore defense make them respond??

Although our CEO has had his problems with Joe Flacco, he did play well in the second half of the wildcard game against the Colts. Do you realize he has 4 road playoff wins under his belt?? For the Ravens to win he needs to throw downfield and not play like a scared rookie and keep dumping the ball to Rice. He has to go through his progressions. This is the make or break game of Flacco’s career. He could be heading to free agency and he needs a signature win to solidify his status as a starter in the National Football League.

We don’t know if you noticed but RB Bernard Pierce #30 has been running the football with some muscle for the Ravens lately. Last week he ran for 103 yards on 13 carries, the week before ran for 89 in the finale against the Bengals, and 123 against the Giants. Ray Rice is still in the picture but their change of pace back is a bruiser built more for a cold grind it out day like today.

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Playing with emotion trying to get Ray back to the Super Bowl.

The fact of the matter is the Ravens are coming in with more playoff experience at key positions. The team has banded together to get Ray Lewis back to the Super Bowl and we know how emotion can play in high intensity football. When Denver ran out to the AFC West crown, the rest of their division was in the middle of losing 17 straight games and now the Chiefs and Chargers fired their coaches.

Between a team that has had to fight and claw to get to this point versus one that coasted playing weak teams.  The Chancellor has to take the Ravens because they are the most battle hardened. How will Denver players react to being roped into a street fight??

Don’t forget that when Peyton asks the Denver crowd for quiet, it will allow the Ravens to get their defensive adjustments also. Peyton Manning has known nothing but close games with the Ravens.

In a mild upset… Baltimore Ravens

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NFL Wild Card Week: Indianapolis Colts @ Balitmore Ravens

ImageWith Ray Lewis announcing his retirement. We have to go on record and say we pick the Ravens over the Colts. Andrew Luck has been able to play well but this will be a bit much in the NFL playoffs.

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