2012 Detroit Lions Preview

After more than a decade of futility, the Detroit Lions returned to the NFL playoffs. Yet they served notice in the season finale, a 44-41 loss to Green Bay, and their 45-28 loss to the Saints in the NFC Wild Card game, that they’re a team on the move. In those games they weren’t overwhelmed as much as just slightly outclassed by two teams that were NFL Champions in two of the last three years. Much like the Oklahoma City Thunder of the NBA, you’re watching a team grow right before you with a run against the best their sport has to offer which will allow them to mature into champions. Will it happen this year??? Do you realize they did it without their best offensive draft pick in RB Mikel LeShoure, who missed the season with an injured knee??

Quarterback: Now last year we told you a Lion turnaround was imminent yet couldn’t happen without a healthy season from Matthew Stafford. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2011/05/19/2011-detroit-lions-preview/ Yet who could foresee the type of record  setting season he turned in. For the season, his 421 of 663 for 5,038 yards for 41 touchdowns to just 16 interceptions shattered team records. He joined Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady as the only other quarterbacks who threw for more than  40 touchdowns in a season. Only three other quarterbacks in history had thrown for more than 5,000 yards either. Not bad for a QB completing his first healthy season.

One aspect of his value is how he improved as the season went on. In the Thanksgiving Day game where the Lions could make the leap to NFL elite status with a win over the Packers, Stafford turned in a subpar performance throwing for 276 yards & 3 interceptions in a 27-15 loss. Five weeks later he turned in a performance for the ages throwing for 520 yards and 5 TDs including a last minute touchdown drive in Lambeau Field. Although the Lions lost 44-41, he had come within 32 yards of breaking Norm Van Brocklin’s 62 year old record of 551 yards in a game. In this game he showed the go for broke moxie he displayed in bringing the Lions from behind as he had at Oakland two games prior. He grew as the season progressed and stands to come into 2012 as one of the NFL’s best. At quarterback the Lions are Super Bowl quality.

Versatile Jahvid Best

Offensive Backfield: Injuries forced this backfield to be in flux in 2011. When 2nd round draft pick Mikel Leshoure went down with an achille’s injury, Jahvid Best was forced to be a feature back when he’s more of a 3rd down guy. Best’s season was down production-wise in 2011 which saw him rush for only 390 yards and 2 scores, while catching 27 passes for 287 yards and another touchdown. He had 58 receptions in 2010 but a heavier workload saw him face time lost due to injury as well.

Although the team had to go running back by committee, each of the top three rushers on this team averaged 4 yards per carry or better. Kevin Smith #30 was the most productive back last year (72 car. 356 yds 4TDs) with a 4.9 yard average. Yet he also saw down time nicked with injuries. Lions’s brass must feel good about Mikel Leshoure’s recovery since they haven’t gone out to sign a more full time running back. http://prod.www.lions.clubs.nfl.com/news/lions-insider/article-1/RB-Mikel-Leshoure-participates-in-full-practice-for-first-time-since-Achilles-injury/ced9adaf-f263-4e05-a58d-66f0c3e3887d In fact he took several snaps in the June minicamp and came off looking like he was 100% healthy and ready for the new season. For those of you who can’t remember, he ran for over 300 yards in a game for the Illini and over 1,700 yards in his last collegiate season. He is 6’0 and 227 lbs, and an every down back. If he comes back 100% and takes the starting job, running back is average with a chance to be good. We have to wait and see… If he’s hurt and the backfield is thrown in flux again they drop back to below average…

Is a 2,000 yard season possible for Calvin Johnson?

Receivers: What else can be said of the electrifying talents of Calvin “Megatron” Johnson?? Going into last year, we felt he could possibly go for 90-100 receptions and 1,500 yards and he did not disappoint. Johnson’s 96 receptions for 1,681 yards  16 TDs made him a consensus All Pro. For the better part of the season he was on pace to break both Randy Moss’ touchdown record of 23 and Jerry Rice’s record of 1,808 receiving yards set in 1995. Do you realize he only needs 1,128 yards to hit the 7,000 yard mark for his career?? He’s the best weapon in the game today and his 11 catches for a team record 244 yards in the last game of the season put the Green Bay Packers and the rest of the league on notice. “Megatron” will flirt with a 2,000 yard season this year.

Last year this team received steady play from veteran Nate Burleson (73 rec / 757 yds) although he only caught 3 touchdowns. Will he be able to stay on the field with the Lions making Oklahoma wideout Ryan Broyles their 2nd round pick in the draft?? Keep in mind last year’s 2nd round pick Titus Young, from Boise St came on in the second half of the season. Of his 48 rec. for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns, 29 of those catches and 5 scores came in the second half of the season. All of this before we get to talented TE Brandon Pettigrew… No wonder this team couldn’t be stopped throwing the football. Even without a running game. This is already a Super Bowl caliber receiving corps. If Broyles can make the transition and come on late in the season…. dare we say it??

Offensive Line: This offensive line had mixed reviews last season as the team needs to protect Stafford better, they let him get hit 78 times last year along with 36 sacks. Too much for a quarterback who before last year had proven to be injury prone. To that avail the Lions made T Riley Reiff their #1 draft selection to help fortify the line. The question is will he fight for Left Tackle Jeff Backus’ job or Gosder Cherilus on the right?? Both tackles are  former #1 selections but Backus is going to be 34 years old when they go into camp. He will take over for Backus at Left Tackle later but he should unseat Cherilus as the starter on the right now. Why??

When you look at the statistics for this line everyone is expendable. On obvious rushing downs where it is 3rd or 4th and 2 or less, this team could only rush for the first down 57% of the time to the left, 54% of the time up the middle and 40% on the strong side. Are you serious?? Those rankings are 26th, 23rd, and 31st and have to improve. The strong side is your power rushing side and you need to have push. Have attitude about it. Yet how much can you attribute that to their not having their best running back out there for the season?? On second thought, it doesn’t matter we’re only talking 2 yards so the line has to take the blame for those short comings. This line had better play better or it could be the weak link that allows a promising team to fall to injury or short of it’s goal. Even with improvement this group still receives a below average grade.

Cliff Avril had a breakout year in 2011 and could hit the 15 sack plateau this year.

Defensive Line: This unit is one of the team’s strengths. Of the 41 sacks (10th in the NFL) last year, 19 came from Defensive Ends Cliff Avril with 11, and Kyle Vanden Bosch with 8. Avril has learned a tremendous amount from his counterpart and coming into his 5th season and 4th straight with improved sack totals, we see a Pro Bowl year for him with 15 sacks. The defensive ends did benefit from the attention DT Ndamukong Suh drew after his stellar rookie campaign. Suh suffered a sophomore slump though with 39 tackles and 4 sacks which was down from his 66 tackle 10 sack performance from a season before. The frustration for Suh boiled over with several personal foul calls when he lost his composure. The most visible was his ejection after kicking a Green Bay Packer lineman in a national televised game on Thanksgiving.

They need him to lead by example especially with fellow DT Nick Fairley coming into camp injury free and with the same temprament. Fairley needs to show up to back his high draft status and give Lions fans what they’ve been envisioning since his selection. If these two can channel that fire and brimstone energy into just going after running backs and quarterbacks, this group is good and can make the transition to Super Bowl quality if Fairley can start and make plays for the Lions. It’s critical to the team’s overall psyche and growth when players start to reach their potential

Former Tennessee Titan Stephen Tulloch fortified the middle of the Lions defense.

Linebackers: This is an uninspiring group at first glance and just like we said before last year they could use a free agent pick-up here. In space, The Chancellor doesn’t like the play of DeAndre Levy he seems stiff out in the open and a step slow reacting to plays. His great speed masks it to the layman football watcher but coaches can and do take advantage of that with intermediate passing routes to his flank. He moved back from the middle after playing inside for 2010. He did make a respectable 109 tackles but only forced 1 fumble and only defensed 1 pass. He needs to play more instinctive, especially behind this line. In Super Bowl XXXV, Ray Lewis playing in a 4-3, defensed 5 passes in that game himself!! So asking for more than 1 pass defensed over an entire season isn’t being difficult. Hopefully he can play more instinctive in his second season back outside.

Now one player who did play well last year was Middle Linebacker Stephen Tulloch #55. Of the Lions’ back 7 on defense, he was the most consistent performer with 127 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 7 passes defensed. He’s in his prime and for management’s sake should hope his improvement can be mirrored by Levy. The Lions are looking to shake things up at linebacker and selected two in the draft who seem to be paying dividends in OTAs already. Fifth round pick Tahir Whitehead out of Temple, and seventh round pick Travis Lewis from Sooner Nation. We think Travis Lewis will get on the field and replace Justin Durant by season’s end. If the Lions can get these young linebackers making plays this could be an above average group. As of right now we have to give them a below average grade and see how the position battles of summer camp pan out.

Houston had a big year in 2011. Pro Bowl in 2012??

Secondary: What is FS Louis Delmas back there reading?? Although he missed 5 games, he made 61 total tackles yet didn’t register 1 interception for a second straight season. This is one of the reasons the team finished with 21 interceptions while giving up 26 touchdowns and finished 22nd against the pass. With a pass rush this strong more plays needed to be made by the safeties. Delmas makes big hits but needs to arrive two steps before and make the interception. He has to show up this season. Amari Spivey improved in 2011 yet needs to step it up just a little bit more. In 2011 he made 75 tackles (up from 33 in 2010) intercepted 3 passes and had 1 sack. At cornerback Chris Houston (56 tackles / 5 ints) was solid although Houston missed 3 games. Chris proved to be the playmaker on this defense returning those 5 interceptions for a whopping 225 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Lions made a serious statement in the draft taking 3 secondary players: CB Dwight Bentley in round 3, CB Chris Greenwood in round 5, and Jonte Green in round 7. They were prepared to replace CB Eric Wright, who departed via free agency and penciled nickel back Aaron Berry as the starter. Competition should be fierce for this cornerback spot with the signing of former Indianapolis Colt Jacob Lacey. This team has a few “ifs” in the secondary yet if they can stay healthy and Delmas can begin to read quarterbacks this secondary can be good. We have to wait until after training camp to find that out so they get a slightly below average grade for now.

Stafford needs to be healthy to take the Lions deep in the playoffs.

Overall: This team grew up in a major way last season. However, Head Coach Jim Schwartz has to get his team’s head out of the clouds and clean up the off the field issues. He has to keep his players from thinking they have arrived because of a little success. This is where he has to prove his mettle this year. One thing the Lions have this year is a relatively easy schedule, http://www.detroitlions.com/assets/pdf/2012_Det_Schedule.pdf They don’t play the bulk of their division rivals until we get to the second half of the season. More important they play 5 of their last 7 at home and the team should have growing pains ironed out by then.  One game to circle is the week 6 matchup with Philadelphia. Each team wants to prove they are among the NFC elite and this game will have wildcard ramifications if either doesn’t finish strong. The winner of this game will have a championship building block level of confidence come playoff time.

The health of Mikel Leshoure and the running game, an explosive Nick Fairley to add nastiness to the defense and further bolster a strong pass rush, and an improved Delmas could pay huge dividends if all come to pass. How huge?? A trip to Super Bowl XLVII down in New Orleans awaits them if they do. Last year they went 10-6 and fought tooth and nail in their final games and playoff loss.  We shall see how the preseason shakes out but this season just like last year, should end in the Super Dome.

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NEXT: Baltimore Ravens

2011 Detroit Lions Preview

A look back at last football season for this team and the question that lingers is: What would have happened had Calvin Johnson’s 4th quarter touchdown stood in week 1 at Chicago? Would that early season win served as a launching pad for the 2010 Lions?  After a season in which the Lions made strides on both sides of the ball, they came through with the best draft in all of pro football.  The coup to land Auburn DT Nick Fairley to team with Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch sent shockwaves throughout the league. Fellow draft picks Titus Young, an explosive receiver from Boise St., and tough RB Mike Leshoure give the Lions three picks that should contribute immediately.  This is a spirited young team that learned it could be competitive and they are growing before our eyes.  Circled is the week 5 matchup where they host Chicago with their first Monday Night game in many years.  Will this matchup with Chicago serve as a launching pad?

Quarterback:  The key to the Lions playoff push is the health of Matthew Stafford. He’s shown improvement and earned a degree of respect from his team when he came in with a separated shoulder to throw for the winning score against Cleveland.  Yet he has shown a penchant for injury and this is the year he has to develop over a complete season to justify his #1 pick and fulfill expectations.  Last year Stafford only started 3 games, yet he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 int.  He was more relaxed in the pocket and looked like a solid leader. His team needs to grow with him during the season for the Lions to take that next step.

In Stafford’s absence, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton played solidly with Hill starting 10 games and Stanton 3. Hill actually had the highest completion percentage of the three QBs with 61.8% while throwing for 16TDs to 12 interceptions.  Yet at 30 yrs of age, this is the zenith of what we can expect from him.  He’s a serviceable backup who can step in. However it was when Drew Stanton (formerly of Michigan St) played that the team seemed to show real spirit.  His mobility was showcased when the pocket breaks down running for 118 yards and 1 TD. In fact of the 6 wins in 2010: 3 happened when Hill started, 1 with Stafford, and 2 with Stanton.  Stanton’s growth completing 58% of his passes for 4TDs to 3ints, while being 5 years younger, could make Hill trade bait. We saw how Lions players rallied around him when he played.  The quarterback position is average yet growing in Motown.

Offensive Backfield: Last year’s selection of Jahvid Best turned out to be a good one.  Not for last year’s rushing performance (555yds / 3.2 avg.) but for his receiving totals.  His 58 receptions for 487 yards out of the backfield included a 75 yard touchdown.  Thats a whopping 8.4 yards per reception.  He isn’t an every down back and his average shows he is best as a change of pace back.  Once he doesn’t take a starter’s pounding, he will be that much more explosive out of the backfield.  Maurice Morris is more solid between the tackles yet lacks homerun punch.  His rushing average of 3.7 was stronger than Best’s but again showcases he is a ball carrier, not a top shelf runner that can make things happen. Morris is better suited as a backup.

Enter draft pick Mikel Leshoure from Illinois, who may be the best fit for his team than any running back drafted this year. At 6’0, 227lbs, he offers the power between the tackles that the Lions have been missing, and should move Best to a 3rd down role. He is more explosive than Morris and with teams worried about the passing game; there should be openings for Leshoure to be a splash player this year.  He ran for nearly 1,700 yards in his final collegiate season and could be a 1,000 yard rusher as a rookie.  The Lions backfield projects to good

Receivers:  Entering his 5th year, Calvin “Megatron” Johnson is in his prime and was the Lions lone offensive pro bowl performer in 2011.  His 77 receptions for 1,120 yards for 12 TDs ranked him in the top 20 in all 3 categories.  His 12 TDs receiving was second in the league.  This was enough for his peers to vote him into the Pro Bowl with a top tier performance while working with multiple quarterbacks.  With a healthy Stafford all year, it would be easy to see his numbers grow to 90 -100 receptions for 1,500 yards, he’s that talented! At 6’6 and 235 lbs. while running a sub 4.4 / 40, he is as lethal a receiver that has come into the NFL since Randy Moss in 1998.  Up until now he has needed some help.

Even “Megatron” has to have a “Starscream.”  That help may have arrived with the Lions second pick in Boise St’s WR Titus Young.  A 5’11, 175 lbs. burner with 4.3 / 40 speed, he should add further vertical explosion to an offense to dependent on Johnson making the big play in the passing game.  Nate Burleson is a good intermediate receiver and has been serviceable; Young gives Detroit the home run threat on both sides.  This should be Detroit’s best 1-2 punch at receiver since Herman Moore and Brett Perriman (twin 100 reception receivers in 1995). This team could be the NFC’s most explosive offense fielding 3 weapons with 4.3 speed in Johnson, Best, and Young.  Look out! Titus also is an excellent kick returner.

Rounding out Detroit’s receiving corp. is the prize of the 2009 draft in Oklahoma St’s Brandon Pettigrew. (Tim Evans) Last year the big tight end made strides in his play, doubling his catch totals, receiving yards and touchdowns. Oh, you wanted numbers…well he caught 71 passes for 722 yards and caught 4 touchdowns. Pettigrew can stretch the middle and is a mismatch for linebackers and at 6’5, 257 lbs. is growing into too much man for most strong safeties.

With all this speed and the three main receivers having 5 years or less service, the NFC North had better draft some secondary speed.  Stafford stays healthy and develops over a season with this group, team passing records could fall.  At receiver this team could be frightening.  Receiver in Detroit is good with a chance to be beyond pro bowl caliber as a group.

Offensive Line:  This team needs more punch on the right side.  RG Stephen Peterman and RT Gosder Cherilus only led to 20 rushing first downs and had 23 negative running plays.  On the strong side with a right handed quarterback? Those need to be dramatically improved and this team ran a lot of draws and counters to offset that weakness. Now running to the weakside produced 46 1st downs, over 24 rushing plays that gained 10 or more yards and anchored the quarterback protection.  Those rushing totals need to be reversed as the team was 23rd in rushing with 1,613 yards and only had 11TDs. They need Leshoure to come through to aid here.

Although Matt Stafford has been knocked from action on several occasions, this OLine has actually given up the 6th fewest sacks last year with 27.  Detroit QBs were hit on 64 different drop backs which ranked 10th.  This may be where the move to a more mobile Drew Stanton to the second string position at QB could prove beneficial if Stafford is to go down for any significant time.  The offensive line is slightly above average but needs to improve driving teams off the ball.  They could use a free agent acquisition to provide some competition on the right side.

Defensive Line:  By far the surprise of the 2011 draft was landing Auburn DT Nick Fairley. You could feel the collective gasp of the NFL when the selection was announced in Radio City Music Hall. The realization that Fairley, who should have went #1 or at least top 5, fell to a team who fielded arguably the best rookie defensive lineman in NFL history in Ndamukong Suh. Wow!  All Suh did was amass 66 tackles, had 1 interception, and forced a fumble with his 10 sacks. At defensive tackle? Yikes! He was runaway NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowl starter.  His motor and attitude was just what the Lions need to make a turnaround and should rub off positively on Fairley.

When we last saw Fairley, he was busy wreaking havoc in the Oregon backfield during the Tostitos National Championship Game.  He was the most dominant player on the field in that game and next to Heisman winner Cam Newton was the best player in the SEC.  He plays with the perfect degree of nastiness in a defensive player, right on the edge.  While it has led to a few penalties, it’s also led to him completely taking over games.  His experience in playing at a high level in big games like the SEC Championship and National Championship Games will go a long way in the overall maturation of a Lions team trying to achieve the playoffs. Along with the added incentive of wanting to play hard against the teams that didn’t select him, his maturing, and having the perfect running mate in Suh, should terrorize the NFC North for the next 5-7 years easy barring injury.

Forgotten in this mix is the leadership and toughness of returning DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. He may turn into a double digit sack performer with so much attention on the twin DTs.  In 11 games last year he only had 33 tackles and 4 sacks.  Bosch is a work out fiend who should come into this season in terrific shape, thanks to the lockout extending time where his 32 yr old body won’t have to take hits through the summer. Other quarterback hunters on the team totaled 19.5 sacks with LDE Cliff Avril leading the way with 8.5 despite missing 3 games. The Lions amassed a mind boggling 44 sacks, which ranked 6th in the NFL, a tremendous amount for a team that rarely held leads. They should improve on their rankings of 21st on defense, 24th against the run starting with this young defensive line.  NFC North, watch out! With Suh in year 2, Fairley in year 1, and Avril in year 3, they will only improve. Defensive line is superior with the Lions.

Linebackers: This is where a free agent pick up could go a long way to make this a top ten defense. Play here is steady but not spectacular.  Julian Peterson last year was 2nd on the team with 57 tackles yet didn’t force a fumble or intercept a pass. That isn’t enough with that much pressure being generated up front. MLB DeAndre Levy, who missed 5 games, combined with his backup Ashley Palmer for 83 tackles. Levy did pick off 2 passes and Palmer forced 3 fumbles, so they have made some plays.  Sam linebacker Landon Johnson was 11th on the team in tackles behind ALL of Detroit’s secondary?  Terrible! At the strong side he has to shed blocks of the TE and make more plays than that. Olsen in Chicago, Shiancoe in Minnesota, and JerMichael Finley in Green Bay are more pass receiving tight ends than massive blockers and he has to play better. This group needs help on the outside and needs to make plays.  Maybe the addition of 5th round pick Douglas Hogue can help.  Linebacker is below average and this lockout could keep the Lions from getting that key free agent acquisition.

Secondary:  Louis Delmas at FS led the Lions in tackles with 62 tackles and 2 forced fumbles yet didn’t intercept a pass all year…all year! With that much pressure up front? Clearly his ball hawking skills have to improve. Going into his 3rd year he has to show improvement against the pass or they should move him to SS since he is willing to tackle. SS Amari Spivey should have made a higher amount of tackles than 33 yet we will attribute that to being a rookie.  He did have 2 interceptions on the season which ranked 2nd on the team.  First on the team was CB Alphonso Smith with 5, yet the other corners, Chris Houston, and Nathan Vasher, only had 1 a piece.

Part of this problem is the defense is playing too much cover 2 zone and need to mix their coverages more.  Although one of their better performances came in the late season upset of the Green Bay Packers in week 14.  They held the Super Bowl champions to only 3 points while smothering Aaron Rodgers targets. Youthful and with some improvement could get another 10 interceptions across the board. Secondary is slightly below average.

Overall: This team is coming in with a 4 game winning streak to end the season.  It started with the upset of the Packers and then the 10 win Buccaneers. They proved to themselves that they can play with anyone and with the new additions should win 10 games in the upcoming season.  With Minnesota in flux after the retirement of Brett Favre and the Bears not really improving their offense, this is the year the Lions should find their way to the postseason.  This roster is youthful and improvement should come from many positions.  First off they are playing with a tremendous chip on their shoulder where Titus Young’s underdog Boise St attitude, and Nick Fairley’s wanting to “show other teams what they passed on” attitude will further foster.  The excitement that this team finished with has only heightened with a great draft.

In the free agency era the formula for a team rising from the ashes starts with a good finish the year before. Notably the ’98 Falcons finishing 6-2 in ‘97 before a surprise Super Bowl run, ’99 Ravens finishing 6-2 before a Super Bowl run in ‘00, and the ’03 Bengals finishing 7-4 before a playoff run in ’04, and even the “99 Eagles winning their last two games includng a victory over the eventual champion St. Louis Rams.  (just to name a few)   . This team can see that type of turnaround with a little bit of luck.  That week 5 Monday Night Game hosting Chicago should be a coming out party. The league had better get ready.

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