Author Archives: The Chancellor of Football

Von Miller Facing A Four Game Suspension – The New LT

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The AFC's best linebacker will see more double teams unless someone can emerge to replace Elvis Dumervil.

The AFC’s best linebacker will see more double teams unless someone can emerge to replace Elvis Dumervil.

The NFL has had it’s worse off-season in it’s history and the hits just keep on coming. Think back to prior years where there have been headlines off the field, they rarely happened to teams at the top. Now here comes the latest in Von Miller appealing a violation of an NFL policy that may be drug related. We know that he is a star and this will not hurt him overall but what does this do to his team??

When we last talked about the Denver Broncos, we gauged how effective Miller was going to be now that his bookend counterpart is now in Baltimore. In our season preview: https://taylorblitztimes.com/2013/05/08/2013-denver-broncos-preview-one-more-moment-for-manning/ we wondered if they had adequately replaced Dumervil and here we are headed to camp when this bombshell hits.  If his appeal goes down in flames, the Broncos will be without the services of their best player against the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, and the Philadelphia Eagles. Which gives game 2 some added significance.

One of the bigger stories for us is how Raven Tackles Michael Oher and Bryant McKinnie totally neutralized him in last year’s playoffs. He only mustered 1/2 a sack in that 38-35 overtime loss. That performance was the impetus to the collapse of the Bronco defense in that game. Flacco went deep often and scorched the secondary with no pass rush in sight. After stealing Dumervil in free agency, how does the Denver defense stop Baltimore when they come to town September 5th??

If the Broncos go down in week one they have to go to New York and face Eli Manning in what should be the final Manning Bowl. With the chance to play the Super Bowl in their own home stadium as a backdrop to Denver facing one of the league’s best QBs with no pass rush, an 0-2 record is a distinct possibility. The Giants have shown the ability to clamp down on offenses that struggle to throw past 15 yards. Everyone watched the film of that playoff loss and there have been grumblings that he’s having some physical discomfort during the OTAs. This would be a game where they desperately need a pass rush.

After a four game suspension, the Broncos can ill afford his coming back rusty. In upcoming weeks he’ll have to chase Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, and RG III before we get to the second half of the season. If this suspension holds up this could have a domino affect on the season. Not as great as what Aaron Hernandez will have on the Patriots, but it will take it’s toll. To lose 29.5 sacks in Dumervil and Miller is a lot of QB pressure. If the Broncos have to manufacture a rush with the blitz, Peyton and company had better be ready for some high scoring affairs.

The only player to come back from a four game suspension and  have a monster year was Lawrence Taylor in 1988, when he gained 15.5 sacks in just 12 games. Although they finished 10-6, it was their 2-2 start that kept the Giants from entering the postseason. What will the Broncos record be after 4 games without Miller?? To who would the losses come against and how would that structure AFC playoff proceedings?? Don’t forget that Lawrence Taylor’s Giants in 1988, lost the fourth game to the Los Angeles Rams 45-31. Take a wild guess who finished with an identical record and went to the playoffs on a head to head tiebreaker. Something to think about… Von Miller, your mission, should you choose to accept it….

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Whither Johnny Manziel – Kicked out of Manning Passing Academy

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Returning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel.

Returning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel.

Early last December we had the first redshirt freshman win the Heisman Trophy. Everyone marveled at “Johnny Football’s” mobility in and out of the pocket. His touch once he threw the football during games, and a slew of YouTube tricks to marvel at. Yet no one thought of the light that would be shown on a 20 year old kid. The scrutiny that would follow him off the football field has led to an off-season of setbacks. All of which culminated with his removal from the Manning passing camp.

In the ever-changing world of social media, there is light where there has never been before. Any anonymous person, can take a picture of you while in the middle of devouring a cheeseburger, and link it to the rest of the world via Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, etc… Caught in this lurch are the first generation of athletes who can’t escape the limelight of the media, now that the American populace has become a part of it. Athletes are having to mature faster and think quicker on their feet in regards to what their actions can possibly cause.

Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram had just cooled from the Pouncey twins sporting “Free Hernandez” ball caps. This of course in reference to former Florida Gator teammate Aaron Hernandez, who has been accused of murder. Now comes the story of Manziel being released from the camp run by the Mannings. He’s been blown up on social media for a series of transgressions this off-season. Pictures of him in drinking establishments although he’s not 21. The rest of us football fans have taken to social media, to express ourselves about Johnny Manziel and his celebrity.

First and foremost, let’s not forget this is a 20 year old who was at a football camp. The camp is there to mentor and train hundreds of prep school and college signal callers about the nuances of playing the position. Of course they were covering 3, 5, 7 step drops, Pistol shotgun mechanics, and footwork. Here is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner attending a football camp to help the next generation.

Although he has a lot of light on him for various reasons, he was kicked out of the camp and now has to deal with the embarrassment on ESPN and social media all alone. The Chancellor of Football’s take?? I would think higher of the Mannings had they sat Johnny Manziel down and mentored him about professionalism and kept things in-house. Between Archie, Peyton, and Eli, there is nearly 40 years of NFL experience between them. Just like Johnny, Peyton and Eli grew up affluent also so they could identify with his position. This isn’t a poor college student who can only afford to go home and train out of the spotlight only. To boot him out and say”Oh we’d invite him back” while he now has to be a 20 year old in damage control mode. Understand he doesn’t have an agent to coach him and he could always say the wrong thing in front of one of these cameras.

Yet lets ask ourselves a question: What were all of us doing at 20 years of age?? Are you kidding?? I went to parties at schools in four different states let alone be a real high profile college KID. Don’t let social media warp your level of perspective. Does he need to calm down some?? Yes…why not have some compassion for his situation and sit Johnny down?? The Mannings missed a golden opportunity to mentor him in something more important than football…life.

To get him to slow down and understand how living in the fast lane has derailed many careers, or worse. To know how his life is being scrutinized by future employers. To understand the 15 minutes of fame young girls, and other fans who want to befriend him will do with this instant media, can paint him in a negative light. Naturally someone may say it’s not their responsibility to tell him that. The reason they had him there in the first place was they had the platform to teach young quarterbacks about playing football. Why not take it a step further with him instead of let him twist in the wind from a P.R. standpoint?? He has no one around him to tell him NO. He’s hanging around other 20 year old kids who are more popular because they hang out with “Johnny Football.’ Don’t forget there are limited hours his college coaches can talk to him in the off-season due to NCAA regulations. Not one of them could have sat him down for a 15 minute heart to heart conversation??

We do have to keep in perspective that he’s only 20 yet let’s empathize with what he’s dealing with also. If I tapped you on the shoulder and told you I have pics and vids of your behavior to upload to facebook from you at 20, how wide would your eyes get?? Exactly. For what we’ve heard this off-season give this kid a break, he’ll learn from this. The number one thing for him is he’s just a few weeks away from where he needs to be… back in school and in the safe haven of practice at Texas A & M. I hope he’s learned a couple lessons.

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2013 Pittsburgh Steelers Preview – A New Generation

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Of the new stadiums, Heinz Field is more intimidating than Three Rivers Stadium. Fans are closer to the field without the huge walls. makes for great theater.

Of the new stadiums, Heinz Field is more intimidating than Three Rivers Stadium. Fans are closer to the field without the huge walls. makes for great theater.

Was it just our CEO or did the NFL playoffs just seem strange last year without the Pittsburgh Steelers involved?? Since the hiring of Bill Cowher in 1992, the Steelers have only missed the playoffs 6 times. The 3-4 defense he installed is still there and regime change was seamless when Mike Tomlin succeeded him. They may be the best team in football when it comes to drafting specific talents to fit their schemes, especially on defense. When was the last time this team blew it with a defensive player taken in the draft??

Over the next few seasons this team will have to replace the most successful group of defenders since the original Steel Curtain. Former NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison and James Farrior have already moved on. The day will soon come to replace Ryan Clark, Troy Polamalu, and Casey Hampton as well. Sounds daunting until you realize Greg Lloyd, Jason Gildon, Joey Porter, Kevin Greene, Carnell Lake, and Rod Woodson once played here and were adequately replaced.

The most remarkable aspect of all these transitions is the fact the defense hasn’t had a drop off in production during all this time. In a season where defensive leader Farrior was let go, Palamalu missed 9 games, and Harrison 3, this team still finished #1 in defense overall. Only allowing 275.8 yards per game. So when you see 1st round selection LB Jarvis Jones, or 4th round pick S Shamarko Thomas, you get the feeling these guys will stick and define a new era in Pittsburgh Steeler defensive football.

Is there another Super Bowl trip in Big Ben's future??

Is there another Super Bowl trip in Big Ben’s future??

Quarterback: One thing that was reported this summer was the comment that Ben Roethlisberger wants to finish with more championships than Terry Bradshaw. It looks like that will be the only way he’ll get the respect from a historical standpoint that his play alone hasn’t fostered. Has there been a more under celebrated 3 time Super Bowl starter?? Last year while learning a new offense he finished with 3,265 yards while completing 63.3% (284 of 449) of his passes. He also finished with 26TDs thrown to only 8 interceptions for a career low 1.8% interception rate. What would he have done with a better rushing attack??

Will Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley adjust his offense to take better advantage of Roethlisberger in the vertical game as well?? In some instances, the Steeler passing game was too controlled.  With such a big mobile quarterback, the Steelers should run more waggles and half roll-outs to take advantage of his size. The more they can pass from run formations the better off this passing offense will be. So they definitely need a return effort from their running game. Roethlisberger is entering his 10th year and can take the hits throwing vertically. He’s a team leader and once Haley starts trusting him more to go downfield this offense can push the envelope. Last year the Steelers played it too close to the vest on offense. They need this to return to championship form. Especially with a Super Bowl quarterback in his prime at the helm.

A physical back with quick feet. Bell should be a hit in Pittsburgh.

A physical back with quick feet. Bell should be a hit in Pittsburgh.

Offensive Backfield: Management made a statement in not re-signing Rashard Mendenhall and drafting Le’Veon Bell in the 2nd round. He will be given every opportunity to start and his style of play suits what the Steelers want to do. Isaac Redman (410 yards / 3.7 yd avg) and Jonathan Dwyer (623 yards / 4.0 avg) are still in house but are thought of more as reserve talent more than starters.

Another player brought in that could provide dividends on 3rd downs is the signing of LaRod Stephens -Howling, formerly of the Arizona Cardinals. He can also contribute on special teams. However Bell, out of Michigan State, fits the physical profile of a Steeler running back. He has patient but quick feet. A lot like Emmitt Smith, he can make moves in space but it’s his timing that sets up his blocks. His inclusion with Stephens-Howling gives this position an upgrade to playoff quality.

This is the season Antonio Brown comes of age.

This is the season Antonio Brown comes of age.

Receivers: Why did the Steelers bring back Plaxico Burress?? Teams aren’t going to be fooled by an old, tall, bad route runner near the goal line. Everyone knows he’s in there for a post corner or fade route only. In the middle of the field he’s not effective and telegraphs an offenses true intentions when they are down close. What they need is a bookend to Antonio Brown who should have his best season in 2013.

The other reason will be the return to more two tight end alignments with the signing of Matt Spaeth.   Pro Bowl Tight End Heath Miller (71 rec. /816 yds / 8 TDs) will combine to be one of the league’s best TE tandems. Miller can be moved away from the line and allow for multiple receiver looks without opponents platooning nickel packages. More room for Brown and himself to operate underneath. This group is average going into camp and if Brown breaks out like we think, they can be a playoff caliber group.

Offensive Line: Curiously this team didn’t draft any linemen yet signed 6 to bring in to camp. Only Mike Golic Jr. was an offensive tackle with the rest being Guards or Centers. They have to commit to the run after allowing 37 sacks last year and had Steeler quarterbacks hit an additional 67 times. We say quarterbacks because they got Ben knocked out of 3 games. Either run the ball more effectively or protect the passer better, the Steelers look to go with the first option. They do look to get younger with the release of G Willie Colon.

This feast or famine approach could come back to haunt them if they fall behind in games or if they don’t get the push to improve in the running game. Last year the Steelers were 26th in rushing with 1,537 yards with a 3.7 yard average. That is not Steelers football! Only 9 teams had more than the 16 negative rushing plays to the strong side in 2012. A detriment to a power rushing team and you can only fool opposing teams passing on 3rd and short so much. Steeler football is sic ’em not slick ’em. They have to get back to pounding on the line of scrimmage and drafted the back to help. Until we see this take fold this group is below average. They should have drafted a blue chip prospect here last April.

Defensive Line: This is an unsung group when it comes to a defensive line in the NFL. The reason the Steelers finished #1 in defense starts with Casey Hampton eating double teams. You cannot move him off the point of attack and behind him linebackers are scraping, gaming, and blitzing. The number one rule to a 3 man line is the Nose Guard has to be able to eat double teams, triple teams and no one has done it better in the last 20 years. Fellow line-mate ends Brett Keisel (46 tackles / 4.5 sacks) and Ziggy Hood (42 tackles /3 sacks) are passing knowledge to third year player Cameron Heyward, Keisel’s heir apparent. They have signed several linemen to come to camp but these four guys are the main reason this line and defense is Super Bowl quality.

Steeler coaches will teach him a little more body lean coming off the corner.

Steeler coaches will teach him a little more body lean coming off the corner.

Linebackers: The heart and soul of the Steelers as an organization are the linebackers. Enter Jarvis Jones. His inclusion provides a two fold plus for Dick Lebeau’s charges. He should be NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year for the freedom he’ll have playiing next to Larry Foote and Lawrence Timmons. Foote led the team with 113 tackles while gathering 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. However Timmons had 106 tackles, 6 sacks, 3 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles along with 2 defensive touchdowns. These numbers could be higher but this group plays downhill on the offenses side of the ball forcing teams to punt. No one is better stocked at Inside Linebacker.

There is far too much for teams to focus on once we talk about LaMarr Woodley than to turn their attention to Jones. In the early portion of the season, watch for teams to slide the line or back to chip on Woodley. The Chancellor thinks Jones will burst out of the blocks and have a strong September. At 6’2 245 lbs, he’ll play taller than James Harrison and can redirect passes with those long arms. Another plus that Harrison couldn’t do. Don’t think we’re downplaying the loss of Harrison, but with five to six inches of reach he can knock down passes when he doesn’t get to the quarterback. Lets ask a question: When hasn’t the Steelers linebacking corps been Super Bowl quality?? This should be the AFC’s best group and Woodley repeats 2012, he will be replaced in 2014.

Get ready for another hitter to clobber folks in Heinz Field.

Get ready for another hitter to clobber folks in Heinz Field.

Secondary: The final phase of introducing the next generation of Steeler defenders will come with the development of Shamarko Thomas. At 5’9 217 lbs, running a 4.3 40?? Two things are going to happen.One he is going to be decking receivers left and right or he’ll swoop in for interceptions by the bushel. The only reason he slipped to the 4th round is the belief by many teams the position has been minimized by teams favoring the short passing game. This guy was an All Big East performer and should fit right in with a rough defense. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark are back and will be great mentors for him. Everywhere you look on this defense, there is a blue chip player that doesn’t have to produce right away. In future years this will benefit the Steelers greatly.

One issue is the advanced age of Polamalu and Clark at 31 and 34 respectively, they have already missed a combined 13 games in the last 3 seasons. Now that Thomas is on the scene they can get him some valuable playing time if either are lost for a significant amount of time this season. At cornerback, this team has been able to get away with marginal talent. Thanks to the overall front seven’s ability to stop the run, blitz and force quick passes from their opponents, these guys just need to tackle. They rarely have to cover for long or once receivers go inside, the active linebackers clog most of those lanes. However one interception between Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis combined is terrible. They did defense 36 combined passes but now it’s time to take a look at getting younger. They signed DeMarcus Van Dyke and will give a look to 5th round selection Terry Hawthorne out of Illinois. They did bring back William Gay but if you see him, one of these two didn’t develop fully. Because of the cornerbacks, this group is just average. They need to start the transition on the corners as they have everywhere else on this defense.

Crazy Steeler fan's alternate helmet.

Crazy Steeler fan’s alternate helmet.

Overall: The Steelers offensive line has to perform to return this team to the playoffs. Their biggest nemesis in the division this year is the Cincinnati Bengals and their heavy pass rush. Now throw in James Harrison’s assisting with Steeler personnel strengths and weaknesses in their camp and there is more to worry about. Last year the Bengals were 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 52 to begin with. The Ravens improved their rush with the signing of Elvis Dumervil and the Browns brought in hard working Paul Kruger to get after the passer. This team needs to run the ball and maintain leads.

This will be the last season for Polamalu and Ryan Clark as the season will take it’s toll on these two. Expect the team to find out what they have in Shamarko Thomas as the lumps mount up on the aging safety duo. Last year alone they missed 8 games combined and they’re not getting any younger. Jarvis Jones should battle for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year as teams gear themselves to stop Lawrence Timmons and Lamarr Woodley. Two of the new generation Steelers are in place on defense and Bell provides spark on offense. It won’t come to fruition until a little more help arrives in 2014. This year’s Steeler team will go 9-7 in a transition year.

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2013 New England Patriots Preview – Bill Belichick’s Greatest Challenge

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How tortured was Bill Belichick when he watched a less talented team in the Baltimore Ravens finally get past his New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game?? He would have had a different game plan had he made the Super Bowl and faced Colin Kaepernick a second time. It’s been his history. He’s in the midst of rebuilding the Patriots defense with many young defensive players maturing. Here at Taylor Blitz Times, our CEO had this team picked to win last year’s Super Bowl. With a solid quiet off-season, who could possibly get in the Patriot’s way?? Uhhh…. did we say quiet??

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

For once the Patriots have had a tumultuous off-season and we have to see how this affects the team. In the past there were surprising cuts like Lawyer Milloy’s release just before the 2003 season opener. Yet that’s just it. That move was right before the season, where preparing for a regular season opponent kept players from dealing with it too much. Now TE Aaron Hernandez, who may have to step up if Rob Gronkowski is slow to recover from surgery, has been arrested for first degree murder. What will happen to his two TE offense now?? No Wes Welker to turn to as Belichick did last year when injuries hit the tight end position.

Do we know if there is lingering fallout from Welker’s departure?? How could one who produced so much for this organization be so disregarded at the negotiating table?? Now Danny Amendola is the big ticket receiver and he comes in with marginal credentials. Teammates are definitely looking at that. By the way, Gronkowski is laying on the table after surgery on his forearm and now another on his back. When will he come back?? Will we have the old Gronk when he does come back??

With this latest situation with Hernandez, it throws the offense for a complete loop personnel and practice wise. When Ray Lewis went through his arrest and trial it started in January and was over with by May. All of this after Belichick diffused the media situation when he signed Tim Tebow, now questions arise about where will he play. The Patriots completely cut ties and released a disgraced Hernandez. Now does this slow the decision to trade backup QB Ryan Mallett as many Patriot insiders believe??

Keep in mind, this isn’t 2003 where the Patriot locker room was a veteran laden group with Tedi Bruschi, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, and an in-coming Rodney Harrison. This is a young group and this will have some affect on the team overall. Sure they have Tom Brady, but we’re talking leaders within the rank and file of the Patriots. A soon to be 36 year old quarterback isn’t the same as a 36 year old Ray Lewis inspiring the rank and file of the Ravens. Not raising the physicality of his football team. Once you think about it, maybe the Patriots can learn something from those Ravens that beat them last year. This could be Belichick’s greatest coaching challenge.

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

Quarterback: Think back to the early part of this off-season. Tom Brady renegotiated his contract to offer the cap relief he believed would keep Wes Welker in the fold. At best they would be able to acquire a top notch receiver to go with the continuity they had at tight end. Now Hernandez is released, Welker is in Denver, Brandon Lloyd released, and Gronk still recovering. ESPN’s Numbers Never Lie put out a stat last week: Of the 346 receptions made by Patriots WR/TE, 91% were by players currently injured or no longer on the roster. Welcome to the summer of Tom Brady’s discontent.

To underscore the enormity of the situation, Brady is coming off back to back seasons of 5,235 yards with 39 touchdowns in 2011, and 4,827 yards and 34 touchdowns last year. The Patriots scored 513 points in 2011 then 557 last year. After a 3rd straight 500 point season, they equaled the 3 straight years of 500 point seasons of the St Louis Ram’s Greatest Show on Turf.

Now he has a short off-season to get to know a new bunch of receivers. With his place in history already secured, this could prove to be his greatest challenge as well. The key to getting to Brady has been to clog his underneath patterns and allow the rush to get to him. Once he’s hit in the legs he does look down at the rush. He’s going to need players making the right sight adjustments with him this year and there will be more breakdowns or playcalling will limit the offense. The Patriots are still Super Bowl caliber at quarterback but will his new personnel keep him from reaching that game itself??

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Offensive Backfield:  One position that is solid on this side of the ball is running back. Third year back Stevan Ridley proved to be an effective runner after a 293 attempts for 1,263 yards and 12 TD performance in 2012. The one thing he will have to do is pick up the receptions out of the backfield (40) that left with the release of Danny Woodhead. Yet let’s face facts, when Woodhead was in the game the Patriots were going to pass the football.

Going into 2013, most fans outside of the North east remember Ridley from that crushing hit taken in the AFC Championship Game from the Ravens Bernard Pollard. To that avail, Belichick traded for LeGarrette Blount formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the heavy carries.  At 6’0 247 lbs, Blount is a heavy hitter between the tackles. Once you throw in a Shane Vereen and you can see the Patriots will be solid at running back. Or in our eyes playoff quality.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Receivers: Now with Wes Welker running routes for Peyton Manning 2000 miles away, Aaron Hernandez getting used to life on cell block B, Brandon Lloyd released, and Rob Gronkowski recovering who is Brady to throw to?? Well “The Hoodie” has brought in a few receivers in the draft in Aaron Dobson (2nd round) and Josh Boyce (4th round) to accompany Amendola to camp. These guys absolutely have to get in camp and develop their timing with Brady. Everything from audibles to sight adjustments to non-verbal communication to keep from slowing this offense down.

Amendola will play the slot in 3 receiver sets and will be the “Z” in traditional formations. Dobson and his 6’3 frame is thought to be the “X” and has decent speed (4.4/40). Boyce has great speed (4.38 / 40) and looks to play in multiple receiver sets unless he unseats Dobson as a starter.  He presents the deep threat that hasn’t been in Foxboro since Randy Moss departure. This has been an obvious weakness in recent years as teams sat on all the underneath routes in every one of their postseason defeats. If Dobson is slow to develop, Donald Jones should figure prominently or Michael Jenkins formerly of the Falcons. These would be steps back however.

To team with Gronkowski at TE will be Michael Hoomanawanui, Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard or possibly a move here with Tim Tebow. Or at least the competition will include these men. When in reality, Hernandez’s skill set can’t be matched by any of these players. None have even been long time starters and are all mediocre journeymen. Expect a slow descent on the use of the 2 TE offense or a huge drop in production if they try to stay with it. Receiver has dropped to below average in Foxboro.

Offensive Line:  This group won the John Madden award for the best set of protectors a few seasons ago and wasn’t too far off that performance in 2012. Last year they were 6th in sacks allowed with 27 and tied for 11th in quarterback hits allowed with 67. However if the receivers don’t develop outside, these numbers will go up. Brady isn’t that mobile and at 35 years of age, this would be the wrong time to take more hits. These numbers were made better by the ability to 1…2…3 quick pass to Welker, or Hernandez that may no longer be there.

Where this group is tremendous is their run blocking from passing formations. They paved the way for 2,184 yards and 25 touchdowns. Most of which came from running out of the shotgun and multiple receiver sets. However in power rushing situations on 3rd/4th and 2 or less, this group only converted on 56% of the time to the strong side. That isn’t enough. Although they re-signed RT Sebastian Vollmer, there are rumblings he is in for a battle with Marcus Cannon in this year’s camp. This is still a playoff level group.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can't afford a sophomore slump.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can’t afford a sophomore slump.

Defensive Line: For the last several years, Belichick has been getting by on schemes and situational juggling of personnel.  Vince Wilfork (the [[_]]) has been a mainstay (49 tackles/3 sacks) but aside from Rob Ninkovich (8 sacks), only rookie Chandler Jones (45 tackles /6 sacks) distinguished himself. Is Ninkovich a linebacker or a defensive end?? In the nickle, Dont’a Hightower produced 4 sacks yet should be unseated by 7th round draft selection Michael Buchanan out of Illinois. A long armed athletic pass rusher that should give Belichick more to tinker with.

One of the best things about the Patriots is they keep their opponents from keying in on their personnel on the line. At the same time it works against them in terms of becoming a top shelf defense. No one has been able to work to become dominant as they still haven’t found the replacement for Richard Seymour. Without a second strong lineman, this group has been in the bottom half of the league as they were 25th in defense in 2012, and 31st the year before that. This group gets by on using linebackers for much of it’s production for sack totals and has trouble stopping the run. Below average is the best we can give this group.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don't know where he'll be coming from next in Belichick's schemes.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don’t know where he’ll be coming from next in Belichick’s schemes.

Linebackers: How about the bounce back season of Jerod Mayo?? He made the Pro Bowl after registering 147 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 3 sacks, an interception, and 3 passes defensed. Not quite his 175 tackle masterpiece of a few years ago but he was more of a factor against the pass. Only 26, he’s going to be Belichick’s defensive anchor for many years to come. Brandon Spikes was right with him with another 4 forced fumbles to go with 91 tackles, 7 passes defensed and a sack. These two accounted for 10 total turnovers. That’s getting the job done. Now throw in Hightower’s rookie performance (60 tackles / 4 sacks) and this is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Secondary: A full offseason with a re-signed Aquib Talib and bringing in SS Adrian Wilson should greatly benefit this defense. Kyle Arrington needs a bounce back year where he didn’t intercept a pass. Devin McCourty had a solid year with 79 tackles, 5 interceptions, 13 passes defensed and 2 forced fumbles. Was it us, or did he look comfortable at Safety??  He gives them a Charles Woodson type ability to face 3 and 4 receiver sets if he has to lock onto a receiver. If he stays there now that Patrick Chung is healthy.

We’ve said for a few years this group is set to mature into something special. With the addition of Wilson and Talib, expect this to be one of the top secondaries in football. Going into his 13th season, Wilson keeps himself in tip top shape and has been a Pro Bowl player 4 of the last 5 seasons. Over the last 5 years he’s collected 9.5 sacks playing so close to the line of scrimmage. A frequent blitzer. He automatically makes this group better. A playoff caliber group.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Overall: You have to realize we’re coming down to the end of Tom Brady’s career. At 35 years of age how much longer will he do this?? What type of toll will this season have on him if his receivers are slow to develop?? This will be a unique study as we make our way through this season. It could be the last with the Patriots being the clear cut best in the AFC East.

They will see trouble early on in weeks 3-6 when they host Tampa, go to Atlanta, to Cincinnati, then host the potent New Orleans Saints. A 3-3 record could be the situation  before ironing out issues and playing to a rocky 10-6 finish. Payback will be on the minds of  the Texans when they host New England in week 13. Back to back road trips to Miami and Baltimore in weeks 15 & 16, figure to be difficult as well. Last year being 100% healthy they lost 31-30 to the Ravens so expect a dogfight in that one. With their #1 offense, they barely escaped in Miami 23-16 and the Dolphins have improved their defense.

This is the case if Gronkowski comes back early and is 100% for the season. If he doesn’t this team could slip to 9-7 or 8-8. Don’t forget last year they had 3 games against division opponents where games were decided by 7 points or less. Bill Belichick may have to will this team down the stretch to another division title. It will not be the same as it’s been though. Depending on Brady’s frame of mind, the Patriots could be in a mode of complete transition in 2014.

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Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

The Soul Of The Game: Pat Fischer

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In the long history of the NFL there have been players who defined their positions because of their physicality. Men like Dick Butkus, Dick “Night Train” Lane, and Lawrence Taylor were freaks at their position. They were bigger than what other teams were geared to deal with normally. Yet there are those that stand out as hitters first although their size would suggest something different. Enter Pat Fischer.

Standing only 5’9, and 170 lbs (that can’t be right) Smith played in an era where the NFL was a running league. Unlike today’s game where he could play out in space chasing an X, Z, or slot receiver, Fischer had to come up and tackle in an era where everyone was emulating Green Bay’s power sweep. He had to take on pulling guards,  some fullbacks along with his coverage responsibilities. Yet he only missed 10 games in his first 16 years.

Pat Fisher played cornerback for 17 NFL seasons.

Pat Fisher played cornerback for 17 NFL seasons.

His physical play belied his diminutive size as he played as a pint sized intimidator. Lionel “Train” James loves to say “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” Never was this more true than of Pat Fisher. Even in the Super Bowl VII highlight, NFL Films had John Facenda narrate how much a nemesis he was against the run and the pass. Let’s face it, a cornerback his size now is primarily a special team guy who is platooned only against multiple receiver sets. They rarely tackle players other than small slot receivers. Take a look at how Fisher played…

In the NFL of the 1960’s there was a concentration of talent that stayed with the same teams and systems for many years. Fischer was caught in this vice where Hall of Fame cornerbacks Dick “Night Train” Lane, Herb Adderley, Jimmy Johnson, and Lem Barney were playing. He was an overlooked player for awhile and some of it could have been other players not leaving behind on-field animosity when voting for fellow players.

There has to be some truth to it or Fischer wouldn’t have had one of his 3 Pro Bowl seasons in 1969 when he had just 2 interceptions. Now his first, in 1964, where he picked off 10 returning them for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns couldn’t be ignored. That was 1 TD short of the all time record. Yet other years he was overshadowed by these other players.

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Pat Fischer played well into the 70’s and here he is going against Mel Gray in the mid ’70s.

One could also make the argument Fischer’s 1969 Pro Bowl and All Pro season came because of the higher visibility Vince Lombardi brought to the team in his only year coaching there.

Whatever the reason, Fischer played from 1961-1977 and retired having played in more games at cornerback in NFL history. If you think about that time frame, he came in 9 years before the AFL / NFL merger and played through the 12th Super Bowl. This is before the modern athlete could have arthroscopic surgery between seasons to prolong their careers. Does he belong in the Hall of Fame??

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2013 Indianapolis Colts – Skill or Luck In First Season Under Andrew??

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Lucas Oil Stadium with championship banners hanging.

Lucas Oil Stadium with championship banners hanging.

Not a bad first season in Indianapolis without Peyton Manning playing the lead at Lucas Oil Stadium. The light and sound stage that Andrew Luck commanded saw the most unlikely of scenarios that played out in the 2012 season. The Indianapolis Colts charged to an 11-5 record despite a Hall of Fame quarterback exiting stage left, first year Head Coach Chuck Pagano having to leave the team to battle Leukemia, which left interim coach Bruce Arians and top draft choice Andrew Luck to fend for themselves. Now a full year later we have to ask if the Colts will build on that success or take a step back.

Normally we shouldn’t have to until you realize former Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians is now the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. His development of Luck along with astute play calling, was part of the reason they had 7 game winning drives. There was no head coach to interject or suggest a few things that could have disrupted the flow Arians and Luck developed. Although they brought in Pep Hamilton, his former offensive coordinator from Stanford, will it be as successful a relationship on the professional ranks?? We have to get through his growing pains as a first time NFL offensive coordinator.

Andrew Luck avoids Mario Williams and gets off a past vs. Buffalo.

Andrew Luck avoids the rush to get off a pass against Buffalo.

Quarterback: Has there ever been a quarterback who answered so many questions about being the number one selection?? Only a few The Chancellor can think of and many shared the spotlight during their 2012 rookie campaigns. For the season Luck connected on 339 of 627 passes for 4,374 yards, 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Yet there is a growing feeling that a sophomore slump is imminent.

The pendulum started to swing as the 2012 season was concluding. Over the second half of the season, defensive co-ordinators were drawing a bead on his tendencies and forcing him to pull the ball down more. He was sacked 41 times in 2012. Far too many…however they did sign Matt Hasselbeck if Luck was lost to injury.Without Arians, how will the in game adjustments be affected?? Especially those in the fourth quarter??

One theme that shows up is how he fared when he faced teams twice. When the Titans and Texans went against him a second time, his completion percentages were 47% and 50%. His maturation has to stay ahead of what he will see of opponents adjustments upcoming.  Don’t forget this is a quarterback who is mobile. People overlook that. He did escape the pocket 62 times for 255 yards and 5 touchdowns. With the pressure the Colts took last year, roll-outs could be utilized to great effect although it shuts off half the field for a young signal caller. Luck will have a setback year that will leave him relegated to a rank of average as a quarterback. Year 3 or 4 will see him regain some of his top shelf play from a good rookie season.

Offensive Backfield: Last year the Colts running by committee was to keep opposing defenses honest. Yet the inability to run the football may have been filled with the signing of former Giant Ahmad Bradshaw, just one week ago. Although in his sixth year, he has run for 1,000 yards in 2010 and 2012 while rushing for 4,232 yards during his career. More important is his 4.6 yards per carry where no Colt back had an average better than 3.9 yards. Bradshaw was a cap casualty in New York and should be the starter and upgrade this position to average.

TY Hilton along with Ahmad Bradshaw will be Luck's receivers to move the chains along with Wayne.

TY Hilton along with Ahmad Bradshaw will be Luck’s receivers to move the chains along with Wayne.

Receivers: Last year’s biggest coup was to talk Reggie Wayne (The [[_]]) in returning to Indianapolis instead of venturing out as a free agent. He was the go to guy, gathering in 106 receptions for 1,355 yards and 5 touchdowns. A spectacular season, yet at 35 (in midyear) can we expect another season at such a torrid pace?? He keeps himself in good shape and now has 968 receptions for 13,063 yards, 78 TDs for his career. Questions arise on his Hall of Fame candidacy yet there should be a slight drop off in production for 2013. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-2012-elite-performers/0ap2000000122013/2012-Best-of-Reggie-Wayne

Last year the Colts had success developing TY Hilton in the slot (50 rec./861 yds /7 TDs) alongside a veteran Donald Avery (60 rec / 781 yds /3TDs). Luck may have to lean on Hilton and his underneath receivers more this season. Hilton will see his reception total go up to 80-85 receptions this year. We don’t know if  Hamilton will utilize the spread as Arians once did. Receivers will be average in 2013 based upon use and ability to score.

An All Pac 12 performer that lasted until the 4th round. Khaled Thornton from USC.

An All Pac 12 performer that lasted until the 4th round. Khaled Holmes from USC.

Offensive Line: This is the group Colts brass worried the most about. This line will have a new look now they drafted G Hugh Thornton of Illinois in the 3rd round and G Kahled Holmes from USC in the 4th. Holmes did play center for the Trojans for two of those years and offers some flexibility. He was an All Pac 12 performer and started 37 games for the Trojans. Both these guys will stick.

Why?? They made some changes in the off-season but will it be enough to keep Andrew Luck upright. We already mentioned they were 23rd in sacks allowed with 41, but they were second to last in hits allowed on the quarterback with 116. If they do that again, Luck will miss some time in 2013. Thank goodness for Luck’s scrambling ability or he could have missed time last year.

However this team needs a bit of a push in the running game as they were below league average with only 3.8 yards per carry. Toward the strong side the Colts were an anemic 38% in converting from the goal line or 3rd /4th and 2 or less. They had to revert to several quarterback draws to outfox defenses and they ran into a buzzsaw when they faced Baltimore in the playoffs. They couldn’t play heads up with such a physical defense and couldn’t score a touchdown. This will be a year of growth for this group and we have to wait into the summer to give them a grade as high as average up from bad.

Defensive Line: When making a transition to the 3-4 from the 4-3 as this team did in 2012, you are going to experience some growing pains. One new assignment that will transition is the right defensive end. Where Dwight Freeney was the speed rusher from the blind-side, to a space eating combination DT/DE that holds ground and power rushes. Freeney, with 5 sacks last season, didn’t fit this new model and along with cap considerations has been released.

Notice  Fili Moala, Ricky Jean Francois, Aubrayo Franklin, and 5th round draft selection Montori Hughes are all defensive tackles acquired this off-season to fit this new team need. They need to be more stout up front as this team was 26th in yardage allowed and 31st in average yards per play given up at 6 yards per pop. This defense couldn’t get itself off the field in the playoff loss to Baltimore. They allowed a whopping 7.8 yards per play, 439 yards of offense, and 6 of 10 times the Ravens were able to convert 3rd downs. This was against a Raven offense that had yet to hit it’s stride. This group has to make more plays and rates as bad and we need to see more before we improve this ranking.

Werner has to prove he wasn't a reach in the 1st round after a disappointing combine.

Werner has to prove he wasn’t a reach in the 1st round after a disappointing combine.

Linebackers: This is another group looking to make the leap from utilizing left over players to bonafide 3-4 linebackers. Former Packer OLB Eric Walden and Lawrence Sidbury were signed early on in free agency. The long armed Walden is versatile enough to rush the passer or clog intermediate lanes against the pass. Then the Colts landed Bjoern Werner of Florida St in the 1st round of the draft. When you draft an All American who finished with 23.5 sacks for his career and voted ACC Player of the Year, you expect him to be on the field. He’ll probably rush from a down lineman position in this first year. There are some questions about him coming out of the combine but we’ll see.

Incumbent OLB Jerrell Freeman (145 tackles / 2 sacks) may have to take an ILB position with all this competition and Robert Mathis (8 sacks) still in the fold. If the newcomers can provide the desired pass rush, Mathis can return to the strong side DE position as well. To improve on competition inside, the Colts traded for former Buffalo Bill Kelvin Sheppard. The Colts should see drastic improvements with all this reinforcement at linebacker. Taylor Blitz Times believes Werner will compete for AFC Rookie of the Year honors. The Colts have upgraded to playoff caliber with the assortment of talent brought in.

Vontae Davis is a member of a secondary in transition.

Vontae Davis is a member of a secondary in transition.

Secondary: One area the Colts wanted to improve was in the secondary. They signed free agent LaRon Landry to come in at safety and released Tom Zbikowski. Landry is a better pass defender and the Colts should move the sure tackling Antoine Bethea (100 tackles /0 ints/ 7passes defensed) to strong safety. However the Colts also selected S John Moyett in the 6th round.

At corner they re-signed Darius Butler and Vontae Davis to return as an up and coming set of cornerbacks.  In 2012, Butler returned 2 of his 4 interceptions for touchdowns and defensed nearly the same amount of passes (8) as Cassius Vaughn (9). Even though Vaughn started 10 games last year.

Davis, the younger brother of 49er TE Vernon Davis, is a superior athlete with the tools to become a legitimate NFL star. A little focus and a pass rush can help get him there. Last year he had 51 total tackles, 3 interceptions, 8 passes defensed and one sack.  He should be better with an improved pass rush and the secondary has a better center fielder in Landry. This group right now is average with a chance to upgrade this position this summer.

 

Overall: One saving grace for the Colts is they play in a relatively weak AFC South. The Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars have yet to find themselves and have no identity. They are in a two team race between themselves and the Houston Texans. However they got by on spirit and having teams off kilter facing a team that was unknown from a personnel perspective. Arians could just let loose with his play calling since he wasn’t the head coach. The fact they were playing for a higher cause (coach Pagano battling Leukemia) allowed the 2012 Colts to soar to that 11-5 record. Now it’s about their X’s and O’s and ability to professionally be better than their opponent.

Now with Pagano at the helm, expect a few more possessions to be called conservatively especially at the end of halves. Seven times they scored at the end of halves last year, where with a Head Coach thinking for the team overall won’t always be so aggressive with play calling.

Last year they went 3-1 against the NFC North, where now they face the NFC West with defensive powers in Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona. Now if you throw in the Rams, they are facing last year’s 4th, 3rd, 12th and 14th best defenses. All of those figure to be prominent with the Seahawks and 49ers having Super Bowl aspirations. There is a four game stretch where we’ll learn where they’re going in weeks 11-14. They travel to the Titans, then go to the Cardinals, host the Titans, then travel to Cincinnati. Last year they swept the Titans but they were blood baths with one of them an overtime win.

Before they take on Houston who is the bully on the block. This team is going to be 8-8 this year if Luck is healthy the whole season. Things are worse if he goes down. When you have 9 games decided by 7 or less, a fickle bounce of the ball is the difference between being 8-8 or 12-4. Last year with Luck, pun intended, they were 11-5. With a first time NFL offensive coordinator, a second year quarterback who develped his play with a departed coach, and a look at this overall roster, this is a 6-10 team. However Andrew Luck is worth at least two more wins. Expect growing pains in Indianapolis for the 2013 season.

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