Tag Archives: NFL Previews

2013 NFC North Predictions

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Welcome to the kickoff of the 2013 NFL season where we begin our prognostications for teams vying to get to Super Bowl XLVIII. Who will make it to New Jersey?? Well that comes in a couple articles but for now there are division races to settle first. We begin with the old black and blue division…

minnesota_vikings_wallpaper_5-normal2013 NFC North Predictions

Minnesota Vikings 11-5 *

Chicago Bears 10-6 #

Green Bay Packers 9-7

Detroit Lions 5-11

Now of course there are Christian Ponder detractors going into the season yet no one remembers how he improved as last season progressed. There isn’t a quarterback in the NFL who can lean on a Hall of Fame rusher as he can with Adrian Peterson. This season watch for the Vikings to learn the full range of what their front office put together on offense and defense. Jared Allen is in a contract year and Peterson will become the first runner in NFL history to have two 2,000 yard seasons.

The Chicago Bears are a year away from fully coming into their own as they transition into an offensive team. There will be some growing pains as Jay Cutler learns to spread the ball around to Jeffery and his other receivers more. The defense will be fine in Chicago as they still boast the best set of cornerbacks in the NFL in Jennings and Peanut Tillman.

Up in Green Bay there will be more pressure on Rodgers to keep outscoring the opposition. However his receiving corps is in a youth movement and neither the offensive or defensive lines look like they will hold up the entire season. Watch for the Packers to slip from playoff contention for the first time in several years as they struggle to incorporate the run in their pass happy offense.

The Chancellor hates to say it but expect more of the same from the Detroit Lions. Reggie Bush will provide some sizzle on plays out in space but they will telegraph what they will run with whoever is in the backfield.

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2013 Washington Redskins Preview – RGIII In Camp On Time

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All eyes on Robert Griffin III as he returns from off season knee surgery.

All eyes on Robert Griffin III as he returns from off season knee surgery.

Think back to that dark January evening, when Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III, fell awkwardly fumbling the football on his last play of the game. More than the Redskins faithful held their collective breath as he was helped to the sideline. It initially looked like the Redskins had lost more than a wild card playoff game to Seattle, for a period it lost faith and trust in head coach Mike Shanahan as well. Why would you risk your injured star quarterback and jeopardize his career??

Clearly RG III is one of the most electrifying talents the NFL has had in more than a decade. His jersey has been among the most popular sold during the 2012 NFL season. When it was learned that he would have to go through another knee reconstruction, the NFL fan base held their collective breath. After months of what sounded like wishful thinking, Griffin III made it to pre-season camp on time to run one play with a knee brace before coaches sent him in to get it. The sigh from Redskin fans could be heard nationwide, and now we have to assess this team moving forward. How will the Redskins fare defending their NFC East title?? For the first time since 2000, the Redskins are the team to beat in the NFC East, this time based from on-field performance.

Quarterback: We just covered the importance of Griffin III’s return.  Although he and Andrew Luck were compared throughout the 2012 season, it was RG III’s performance that gained momentum as the season progressed. Forgotten amid his off season recovery is the fact the Redskins ended the season on a 7 game winning streak after a 3-6 start. The NFL’s fifth best offense was powered by a QB who completed 65.6% of his passes (258 of 393) for 3,200 yards 20 TDs and only 5 interceptions. However it was the stretch plays using the read option that saw Griffin explode for 815 yards and another 7 touchdowns.

Yet there is more to talk about than meets the eye. He made his teammates believe they could win every game. The Redskins broke a 9 game losing streak at home when they topped the Vikings 38-26 in week 6. Now they come in with a 4 game winning streak at home and more important, come in with a 5 game winning streak within the division. In a winner take all game against the hated Dallas Cowboys in the finale, RGIII outperformed Tony Romo in a 28-18 win.

As long as he retains his ability to keep plays alive and stretch them with the “read opion” from The Pistol, right now defenses don’t have an answer. The beauty in the mechanics of the play are linebackers are slow to get in position to defend intermediate passes. Griffin showed the touch to make those throws as much as he deftly handed the ball off, or took advantage of a defensive end crashing down. He does need to slide more when the hit is inevitable or run out of bounds. As for defenses against him, expect teams to crash the front part of this play and delay blitz on the outside. They will have to take this play away and make him a pocket passer only. He’s showed the ability to be ahead of defenses at this point which keeps him a playoff level performer at this point.

Can Morris repeat his great rookie season??

Can Morris repeat his great rookie season??

Offensive Backfield: The biggest beneficiary of RGIII was obviously first year back Alfred Morris. His 1,613 yards and 13 touchdowns were among the NFL’s best. His patient feet are key to the read option. He sets up blocks well when he gets the ball and carries out his fake well when he doesn’t get the ball. However lets face it, this will be an interesting season for him if RG III misses some time.

He does break some arm tackles but can he stay so productive if he’s the focal point of the offense?? It didn’t go unnoticed the running game disappeared when Griffin III left the wild card tilt with Seattle. Morris keeps the running game Super Bowl level as long as the quarterback stayed healthy. Yet don’t be surprised if his rushing totals dip to 1,200 yards this season.

Hankerson needs to show improvement this year. He had a great one handed catch for a TD in preseason action last night.

Hankerson needs to show improvement this year. He had a great one handed catch for a TD in preseason action last night.

Receivers: Looking to improve at receiver, Mike Shanahan brought in 6 guys this off-season. The most notable are veteran free agents Donte Stallworth and former New Orleans Saint Devery Henderson. However when was the last time these two were top tier performers?? Returning is second year pro Leonard Hankerson who needs some more polishing after a 38 catch 543 yard 3 touchdown campaign. He’s still learning the pro game but lacks burst out of his cuts running routes.

Oops, the Redskins just released Henderson. They must have been proofreading this article and asked themselves the same question.

Pierre Garcon (44 rec/ 633 yds / 4TDs) and slot receiver Josh Morgan (48 rec / 510 yds / 2TDs) were solid but have limitations as well. The player that bonded with RGIII and was the most productive was grey-beard Santana Moss. He led the team with 8 touchdowns on his 41 receptions, However he will be 34 years of age and could slip due to age and the Redskins need to be prepared. Truth is the Redskins should have drafted another receiver. Shanahan must have doubts in Hankerson and Garcon or he wouldn’t have signed so many receivers this spring. They need to get better on the outside and ranks as a bad receiving group.

Offensive Line: Did we see a return of The Hogs?? The Redskins dominated upfront when it came to blowing open holes for the running game. Only the Minnesota Vikings had a better per rush average than Washington’s gaudy 5.2 yard team average. They were the #1 rushing team in football and showed no nonsense power in obvious rushing situations. When it came to 3rd or 4th and short/goal, they earned the first down or touchdown 65% of the time to the weakside and 75% up the middle. Couple this with posting NFL highs in 1st downs rushed for both weakside (67) and strongside (51), you can see why the focus was to stand pat and re-sign their guys.

The flip side of having a dynamic quarterback who can keep plays alive is in the times he gets hit and sacks allowed. This year Shanahan will emphasize throwing the ball away to keep from getting hit 80 times while back to pass. Far too many since that ranks 23rd in all of football. Yet the team only allowed 33 sacks which ranked 13th. A majority of these happened on impromptu scrambles which will improve in the latter stages of the season. When measuring a Super Bowl level line you have to take in consideration what the emphasis of the offense is. When you can run efficiently to both sides and power up the middle, you keep the defense off balance.

Defensive Line: When a team transitions to a 3-4 defense, that first year is a wash as the linemen adjust to eating up space where in most 4-3’s, they’re going after the quarterback first. Surprisingly this defense collapsed to 28th overall. This shouldn’t happen when your offense is one of the best at running the football and time of possession. The good news is the triumvirate of NT Barry Cofield, along with DEs Jarvis Jenkins and Stephen Bowen started 46 out of a possible 48 starts between them in 2012.  Right now Cofield is nursing a few injuries and leads an average line.

The defense is held together by the ageless London Fletcher.

The defense is held together by the ageless London Fletcher.

Linebackers: Holding down the middle is 16 year pro London Fletcher. Someone please get our CEO some of what he’s drinking. Are you serious?? Football is a young man’s game and at 37 years of age he had 141 tackles, 3 sacks, 5 interceptions, and 11 passes defensed. Again he looks in great shape but how long can he perform at this level?? Washington hopes at least another season.

Depth won’t be a problem now they have signed LB Nick Barnett.  He makes the team he will back up Fletcher and youngster Perry Riley. Last year, he garnered 125 tackles, 3 1/2 sacks, and 7 passes defensed. This team was active in the preseason match-up with the Steelers the other night. Experience and youth are serving in the middle.

The real need is to have Bryan Orakpo back to be the trigger man for the Redskins pass rush. In a perfect world he’d have a bounce back year with 12 or more sacks. He should be fresh after missing most of last season. If Fletcher and Orakpo can perform as they have in the past, this is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Rookie Baccari Rambo will get every opportunity to start for the Redskins.

Rookie Baccari Rambo will get every opportunity to start for the Redskins.

Secondary: There could be major wholesale change on the back side of this defense. Mike Shanahan had to face the fact that Reed Doughty and Madieu Williams are limited safeties. They combined for 1 interception and 7 passes defensed. In the 4th and 6th rounds the Redskins picked up Phillip Thomas from Fresno State and Bacarri Rambo from Georgia. Couple this with their top pick being cornerback David Amerson of North Carolina State, this team could field 3 rookies in the secondary.

Think not?? Why else would you re-sign DeAngelo Hall other than help mentor a young secondary. Did you notice they waived two safeties a couple weeks ago?? These rookies are going to stick and their development will dictate if they’ll start or not. Although they have SS Brandon Merriweather starting right now, keep your eye on them this preseason.

Hall turned in a decent year with 90 tackles, 1 sack, 4 interceptions and 14 passes defensed. However he is about to turn to the dark side (30 years of age) where a player can lose his prime in an individual year. When you come in 28th on defense, although you’re one of the best time of possession teams that leads the league in rushing?? You’re a bad secondary and have to take drastic measures.

Overall: This team didn’t win with smoke and mirrors last year. They had an equation no one really had an answer for offensively. Let’s not forget this team was up 14-3 early in their playoff loss to Seattle. However teams have studied RG III’s tendencies and should have a better grasp of what they have to do to slow him down. That is until he breaks the pocket, then all bets are off. In all probability we will get the same RG III when it comes to spontaneous play. He can’t change who he is. However the maturation has to come from his knowing when to slide to protect himself from the bigger hits that occur downfield.

What will be challenging for this team defending their NFC East Title is a much rougher schedule down the stretch. In weeks 10-15, Washington is on the road to Minnesota, to whom they nearly lost to last year. On the road to Philadelphia, home to San Francisco, the New York Giants, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Then they travel to Atlanta to play a Falcon team who will be vying for home field advantage. The Giants and 49ers are the last two NFC Champions who have Super Bowl aspirations as well. How they do in this stretch is how they’ll fare for the season.

Last year the Redskins swept the Cowboys and the Eagles and split with the Giants within the division. With Bryan Orakpo back to bolster the defense, they should stay with the Giants who will battle them for NFC East supremacy in 2013. This team isn’t ready to repeat the playoff run they had last year due to a much rougher schedule. The Chancellor sees the Redskins finishing at 9-7 or 8-8 this year.

 

2013 New England Patriots Preview – Bill Belichick’s Greatest Challenge

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How tortured was Bill Belichick when he watched a less talented team in the Baltimore Ravens finally get past his New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game?? He would have had a different game plan had he made the Super Bowl and faced Colin Kaepernick a second time. It’s been his history. He’s in the midst of rebuilding the Patriots defense with many young defensive players maturing. Here at Taylor Blitz Times, our CEO had this team picked to win last year’s Super Bowl. With a solid quiet off-season, who could possibly get in the Patriot’s way?? Uhhh…. did we say quiet??

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

For once the Patriots have had a tumultuous off-season and we have to see how this affects the team. In the past there were surprising cuts like Lawyer Milloy’s release just before the 2003 season opener. Yet that’s just it. That move was right before the season, where preparing for a regular season opponent kept players from dealing with it too much. Now TE Aaron Hernandez, who may have to step up if Rob Gronkowski is slow to recover from surgery, has been arrested for first degree murder. What will happen to his two TE offense now?? No Wes Welker to turn to as Belichick did last year when injuries hit the tight end position.

Do we know if there is lingering fallout from Welker’s departure?? How could one who produced so much for this organization be so disregarded at the negotiating table?? Now Danny Amendola is the big ticket receiver and he comes in with marginal credentials. Teammates are definitely looking at that. By the way, Gronkowski is laying on the table after surgery on his forearm and now another on his back. When will he come back?? Will we have the old Gronk when he does come back??

With this latest situation with Hernandez, it throws the offense for a complete loop personnel and practice wise. When Ray Lewis went through his arrest and trial it started in January and was over with by May. All of this after Belichick diffused the media situation when he signed Tim Tebow, now questions arise about where will he play. The Patriots completely cut ties and released a disgraced Hernandez. Now does this slow the decision to trade backup QB Ryan Mallett as many Patriot insiders believe??

Keep in mind, this isn’t 2003 where the Patriot locker room was a veteran laden group with Tedi Bruschi, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, and an in-coming Rodney Harrison. This is a young group and this will have some affect on the team overall. Sure they have Tom Brady, but we’re talking leaders within the rank and file of the Patriots. A soon to be 36 year old quarterback isn’t the same as a 36 year old Ray Lewis inspiring the rank and file of the Ravens. Not raising the physicality of his football team. Once you think about it, maybe the Patriots can learn something from those Ravens that beat them last year. This could be Belichick’s greatest coaching challenge.

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

Quarterback: Think back to the early part of this off-season. Tom Brady renegotiated his contract to offer the cap relief he believed would keep Wes Welker in the fold. At best they would be able to acquire a top notch receiver to go with the continuity they had at tight end. Now Hernandez is released, Welker is in Denver, Brandon Lloyd released, and Gronk still recovering. ESPN’s Numbers Never Lie put out a stat last week: Of the 346 receptions made by Patriots WR/TE, 91% were by players currently injured or no longer on the roster. Welcome to the summer of Tom Brady’s discontent.

To underscore the enormity of the situation, Brady is coming off back to back seasons of 5,235 yards with 39 touchdowns in 2011, and 4,827 yards and 34 touchdowns last year. The Patriots scored 513 points in 2011 then 557 last year. After a 3rd straight 500 point season, they equaled the 3 straight years of 500 point seasons of the St Louis Ram’s Greatest Show on Turf.

Now he has a short off-season to get to know a new bunch of receivers. With his place in history already secured, this could prove to be his greatest challenge as well. The key to getting to Brady has been to clog his underneath patterns and allow the rush to get to him. Once he’s hit in the legs he does look down at the rush. He’s going to need players making the right sight adjustments with him this year and there will be more breakdowns or playcalling will limit the offense. The Patriots are still Super Bowl caliber at quarterback but will his new personnel keep him from reaching that game itself??

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Offensive Backfield:  One position that is solid on this side of the ball is running back. Third year back Stevan Ridley proved to be an effective runner after a 293 attempts for 1,263 yards and 12 TD performance in 2012. The one thing he will have to do is pick up the receptions out of the backfield (40) that left with the release of Danny Woodhead. Yet let’s face facts, when Woodhead was in the game the Patriots were going to pass the football.

Going into 2013, most fans outside of the North east remember Ridley from that crushing hit taken in the AFC Championship Game from the Ravens Bernard Pollard. To that avail, Belichick traded for LeGarrette Blount formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the heavy carries.  At 6’0 247 lbs, Blount is a heavy hitter between the tackles. Once you throw in a Shane Vereen and you can see the Patriots will be solid at running back. Or in our eyes playoff quality.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Receivers: Now with Wes Welker running routes for Peyton Manning 2000 miles away, Aaron Hernandez getting used to life on cell block B, Brandon Lloyd released, and Rob Gronkowski recovering who is Brady to throw to?? Well “The Hoodie” has brought in a few receivers in the draft in Aaron Dobson (2nd round) and Josh Boyce (4th round) to accompany Amendola to camp. These guys absolutely have to get in camp and develop their timing with Brady. Everything from audibles to sight adjustments to non-verbal communication to keep from slowing this offense down.

Amendola will play the slot in 3 receiver sets and will be the “Z” in traditional formations. Dobson and his 6’3 frame is thought to be the “X” and has decent speed (4.4/40). Boyce has great speed (4.38 / 40) and looks to play in multiple receiver sets unless he unseats Dobson as a starter.  He presents the deep threat that hasn’t been in Foxboro since Randy Moss departure. This has been an obvious weakness in recent years as teams sat on all the underneath routes in every one of their postseason defeats. If Dobson is slow to develop, Donald Jones should figure prominently or Michael Jenkins formerly of the Falcons. These would be steps back however.

To team with Gronkowski at TE will be Michael Hoomanawanui, Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard or possibly a move here with Tim Tebow. Or at least the competition will include these men. When in reality, Hernandez’s skill set can’t be matched by any of these players. None have even been long time starters and are all mediocre journeymen. Expect a slow descent on the use of the 2 TE offense or a huge drop in production if they try to stay with it. Receiver has dropped to below average in Foxboro.

Offensive Line:  This group won the John Madden award for the best set of protectors a few seasons ago and wasn’t too far off that performance in 2012. Last year they were 6th in sacks allowed with 27 and tied for 11th in quarterback hits allowed with 67. However if the receivers don’t develop outside, these numbers will go up. Brady isn’t that mobile and at 35 years of age, this would be the wrong time to take more hits. These numbers were made better by the ability to 1…2…3 quick pass to Welker, or Hernandez that may no longer be there.

Where this group is tremendous is their run blocking from passing formations. They paved the way for 2,184 yards and 25 touchdowns. Most of which came from running out of the shotgun and multiple receiver sets. However in power rushing situations on 3rd/4th and 2 or less, this group only converted on 56% of the time to the strong side. That isn’t enough. Although they re-signed RT Sebastian Vollmer, there are rumblings he is in for a battle with Marcus Cannon in this year’s camp. This is still a playoff level group.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can't afford a sophomore slump.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can’t afford a sophomore slump.

Defensive Line: For the last several years, Belichick has been getting by on schemes and situational juggling of personnel.  Vince Wilfork (the [[_]]) has been a mainstay (49 tackles/3 sacks) but aside from Rob Ninkovich (8 sacks), only rookie Chandler Jones (45 tackles /6 sacks) distinguished himself. Is Ninkovich a linebacker or a defensive end?? In the nickle, Dont’a Hightower produced 4 sacks yet should be unseated by 7th round draft selection Michael Buchanan out of Illinois. A long armed athletic pass rusher that should give Belichick more to tinker with.

One of the best things about the Patriots is they keep their opponents from keying in on their personnel on the line. At the same time it works against them in terms of becoming a top shelf defense. No one has been able to work to become dominant as they still haven’t found the replacement for Richard Seymour. Without a second strong lineman, this group has been in the bottom half of the league as they were 25th in defense in 2012, and 31st the year before that. This group gets by on using linebackers for much of it’s production for sack totals and has trouble stopping the run. Below average is the best we can give this group.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don't know where he'll be coming from next in Belichick's schemes.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don’t know where he’ll be coming from next in Belichick’s schemes.

Linebackers: How about the bounce back season of Jerod Mayo?? He made the Pro Bowl after registering 147 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 3 sacks, an interception, and 3 passes defensed. Not quite his 175 tackle masterpiece of a few years ago but he was more of a factor against the pass. Only 26, he’s going to be Belichick’s defensive anchor for many years to come. Brandon Spikes was right with him with another 4 forced fumbles to go with 91 tackles, 7 passes defensed and a sack. These two accounted for 10 total turnovers. That’s getting the job done. Now throw in Hightower’s rookie performance (60 tackles / 4 sacks) and this is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Secondary: A full offseason with a re-signed Aquib Talib and bringing in SS Adrian Wilson should greatly benefit this defense. Kyle Arrington needs a bounce back year where he didn’t intercept a pass. Devin McCourty had a solid year with 79 tackles, 5 interceptions, 13 passes defensed and 2 forced fumbles. Was it us, or did he look comfortable at Safety??  He gives them a Charles Woodson type ability to face 3 and 4 receiver sets if he has to lock onto a receiver. If he stays there now that Patrick Chung is healthy.

We’ve said for a few years this group is set to mature into something special. With the addition of Wilson and Talib, expect this to be one of the top secondaries in football. Going into his 13th season, Wilson keeps himself in tip top shape and has been a Pro Bowl player 4 of the last 5 seasons. Over the last 5 years he’s collected 9.5 sacks playing so close to the line of scrimmage. A frequent blitzer. He automatically makes this group better. A playoff caliber group.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Overall: You have to realize we’re coming down to the end of Tom Brady’s career. At 35 years of age how much longer will he do this?? What type of toll will this season have on him if his receivers are slow to develop?? This will be a unique study as we make our way through this season. It could be the last with the Patriots being the clear cut best in the AFC East.

They will see trouble early on in weeks 3-6 when they host Tampa, go to Atlanta, to Cincinnati, then host the potent New Orleans Saints. A 3-3 record could be the situation  before ironing out issues and playing to a rocky 10-6 finish. Payback will be on the minds of  the Texans when they host New England in week 13. Back to back road trips to Miami and Baltimore in weeks 15 & 16, figure to be difficult as well. Last year being 100% healthy they lost 31-30 to the Ravens so expect a dogfight in that one. With their #1 offense, they barely escaped in Miami 23-16 and the Dolphins have improved their defense.

This is the case if Gronkowski comes back early and is 100% for the season. If he doesn’t this team could slip to 9-7 or 8-8. Don’t forget last year they had 3 games against division opponents where games were decided by 7 points or less. Bill Belichick may have to will this team down the stretch to another division title. It will not be the same as it’s been though. Depending on Brady’s frame of mind, the Patriots could be in a mode of complete transition in 2014.

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Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

2013 Indianapolis Colts – Skill or Luck In First Season Under Andrew??

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Lucas Oil Stadium with championship banners hanging.

Lucas Oil Stadium with championship banners hanging.

Not a bad first season in Indianapolis without Peyton Manning playing the lead at Lucas Oil Stadium. The light and sound stage that Andrew Luck commanded saw the most unlikely of scenarios that played out in the 2012 season. The Indianapolis Colts charged to an 11-5 record despite a Hall of Fame quarterback exiting stage left, first year Head Coach Chuck Pagano having to leave the team to battle Leukemia, which left interim coach Bruce Arians and top draft choice Andrew Luck to fend for themselves. Now a full year later we have to ask if the Colts will build on that success or take a step back.

Normally we shouldn’t have to until you realize former Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians is now the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. His development of Luck along with astute play calling, was part of the reason they had 7 game winning drives. There was no head coach to interject or suggest a few things that could have disrupted the flow Arians and Luck developed. Although they brought in Pep Hamilton, his former offensive coordinator from Stanford, will it be as successful a relationship on the professional ranks?? We have to get through his growing pains as a first time NFL offensive coordinator.

Andrew Luck avoids Mario Williams and gets off a past vs. Buffalo.

Andrew Luck avoids the rush to get off a pass against Buffalo.

Quarterback: Has there ever been a quarterback who answered so many questions about being the number one selection?? Only a few The Chancellor can think of and many shared the spotlight during their 2012 rookie campaigns. For the season Luck connected on 339 of 627 passes for 4,374 yards, 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Yet there is a growing feeling that a sophomore slump is imminent.

The pendulum started to swing as the 2012 season was concluding. Over the second half of the season, defensive co-ordinators were drawing a bead on his tendencies and forcing him to pull the ball down more. He was sacked 41 times in 2012. Far too many…however they did sign Matt Hasselbeck if Luck was lost to injury.Without Arians, how will the in game adjustments be affected?? Especially those in the fourth quarter??

One theme that shows up is how he fared when he faced teams twice. When the Titans and Texans went against him a second time, his completion percentages were 47% and 50%. His maturation has to stay ahead of what he will see of opponents adjustments upcoming.  Don’t forget this is a quarterback who is mobile. People overlook that. He did escape the pocket 62 times for 255 yards and 5 touchdowns. With the pressure the Colts took last year, roll-outs could be utilized to great effect although it shuts off half the field for a young signal caller. Luck will have a setback year that will leave him relegated to a rank of average as a quarterback. Year 3 or 4 will see him regain some of his top shelf play from a good rookie season.

Offensive Backfield: Last year the Colts running by committee was to keep opposing defenses honest. Yet the inability to run the football may have been filled with the signing of former Giant Ahmad Bradshaw, just one week ago. Although in his sixth year, he has run for 1,000 yards in 2010 and 2012 while rushing for 4,232 yards during his career. More important is his 4.6 yards per carry where no Colt back had an average better than 3.9 yards. Bradshaw was a cap casualty in New York and should be the starter and upgrade this position to average.

TY Hilton along with Ahmad Bradshaw will be Luck's receivers to move the chains along with Wayne.

TY Hilton along with Ahmad Bradshaw will be Luck’s receivers to move the chains along with Wayne.

Receivers: Last year’s biggest coup was to talk Reggie Wayne (The [[_]]) in returning to Indianapolis instead of venturing out as a free agent. He was the go to guy, gathering in 106 receptions for 1,355 yards and 5 touchdowns. A spectacular season, yet at 35 (in midyear) can we expect another season at such a torrid pace?? He keeps himself in good shape and now has 968 receptions for 13,063 yards, 78 TDs for his career. Questions arise on his Hall of Fame candidacy yet there should be a slight drop off in production for 2013. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-2012-elite-performers/0ap2000000122013/2012-Best-of-Reggie-Wayne

Last year the Colts had success developing TY Hilton in the slot (50 rec./861 yds /7 TDs) alongside a veteran Donald Avery (60 rec / 781 yds /3TDs). Luck may have to lean on Hilton and his underneath receivers more this season. Hilton will see his reception total go up to 80-85 receptions this year. We don’t know if  Hamilton will utilize the spread as Arians once did. Receivers will be average in 2013 based upon use and ability to score.

An All Pac 12 performer that lasted until the 4th round. Khaled Thornton from USC.

An All Pac 12 performer that lasted until the 4th round. Khaled Holmes from USC.

Offensive Line: This is the group Colts brass worried the most about. This line will have a new look now they drafted G Hugh Thornton of Illinois in the 3rd round and G Kahled Holmes from USC in the 4th. Holmes did play center for the Trojans for two of those years and offers some flexibility. He was an All Pac 12 performer and started 37 games for the Trojans. Both these guys will stick.

Why?? They made some changes in the off-season but will it be enough to keep Andrew Luck upright. We already mentioned they were 23rd in sacks allowed with 41, but they were second to last in hits allowed on the quarterback with 116. If they do that again, Luck will miss some time in 2013. Thank goodness for Luck’s scrambling ability or he could have missed time last year.

However this team needs a bit of a push in the running game as they were below league average with only 3.8 yards per carry. Toward the strong side the Colts were an anemic 38% in converting from the goal line or 3rd /4th and 2 or less. They had to revert to several quarterback draws to outfox defenses and they ran into a buzzsaw when they faced Baltimore in the playoffs. They couldn’t play heads up with such a physical defense and couldn’t score a touchdown. This will be a year of growth for this group and we have to wait into the summer to give them a grade as high as average up from bad.

Defensive Line: When making a transition to the 3-4 from the 4-3 as this team did in 2012, you are going to experience some growing pains. One new assignment that will transition is the right defensive end. Where Dwight Freeney was the speed rusher from the blind-side, to a space eating combination DT/DE that holds ground and power rushes. Freeney, with 5 sacks last season, didn’t fit this new model and along with cap considerations has been released.

Notice  Fili Moala, Ricky Jean Francois, Aubrayo Franklin, and 5th round draft selection Montori Hughes are all defensive tackles acquired this off-season to fit this new team need. They need to be more stout up front as this team was 26th in yardage allowed and 31st in average yards per play given up at 6 yards per pop. This defense couldn’t get itself off the field in the playoff loss to Baltimore. They allowed a whopping 7.8 yards per play, 439 yards of offense, and 6 of 10 times the Ravens were able to convert 3rd downs. This was against a Raven offense that had yet to hit it’s stride. This group has to make more plays and rates as bad and we need to see more before we improve this ranking.

Werner has to prove he wasn't a reach in the 1st round after a disappointing combine.

Werner has to prove he wasn’t a reach in the 1st round after a disappointing combine.

Linebackers: This is another group looking to make the leap from utilizing left over players to bonafide 3-4 linebackers. Former Packer OLB Eric Walden and Lawrence Sidbury were signed early on in free agency. The long armed Walden is versatile enough to rush the passer or clog intermediate lanes against the pass. Then the Colts landed Bjoern Werner of Florida St in the 1st round of the draft. When you draft an All American who finished with 23.5 sacks for his career and voted ACC Player of the Year, you expect him to be on the field. He’ll probably rush from a down lineman position in this first year. There are some questions about him coming out of the combine but we’ll see.

Incumbent OLB Jerrell Freeman (145 tackles / 2 sacks) may have to take an ILB position with all this competition and Robert Mathis (8 sacks) still in the fold. If the newcomers can provide the desired pass rush, Mathis can return to the strong side DE position as well. To improve on competition inside, the Colts traded for former Buffalo Bill Kelvin Sheppard. The Colts should see drastic improvements with all this reinforcement at linebacker. Taylor Blitz Times believes Werner will compete for AFC Rookie of the Year honors. The Colts have upgraded to playoff caliber with the assortment of talent brought in.

Vontae Davis is a member of a secondary in transition.

Vontae Davis is a member of a secondary in transition.

Secondary: One area the Colts wanted to improve was in the secondary. They signed free agent LaRon Landry to come in at safety and released Tom Zbikowski. Landry is a better pass defender and the Colts should move the sure tackling Antoine Bethea (100 tackles /0 ints/ 7passes defensed) to strong safety. However the Colts also selected S John Moyett in the 6th round.

At corner they re-signed Darius Butler and Vontae Davis to return as an up and coming set of cornerbacks.  In 2012, Butler returned 2 of his 4 interceptions for touchdowns and defensed nearly the same amount of passes (8) as Cassius Vaughn (9). Even though Vaughn started 10 games last year.

Davis, the younger brother of 49er TE Vernon Davis, is a superior athlete with the tools to become a legitimate NFL star. A little focus and a pass rush can help get him there. Last year he had 51 total tackles, 3 interceptions, 8 passes defensed and one sack.  He should be better with an improved pass rush and the secondary has a better center fielder in Landry. This group right now is average with a chance to upgrade this position this summer.

 

Overall: One saving grace for the Colts is they play in a relatively weak AFC South. The Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars have yet to find themselves and have no identity. They are in a two team race between themselves and the Houston Texans. However they got by on spirit and having teams off kilter facing a team that was unknown from a personnel perspective. Arians could just let loose with his play calling since he wasn’t the head coach. The fact they were playing for a higher cause (coach Pagano battling Leukemia) allowed the 2012 Colts to soar to that 11-5 record. Now it’s about their X’s and O’s and ability to professionally be better than their opponent.

Now with Pagano at the helm, expect a few more possessions to be called conservatively especially at the end of halves. Seven times they scored at the end of halves last year, where with a Head Coach thinking for the team overall won’t always be so aggressive with play calling.

Last year they went 3-1 against the NFC North, where now they face the NFC West with defensive powers in Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona. Now if you throw in the Rams, they are facing last year’s 4th, 3rd, 12th and 14th best defenses. All of those figure to be prominent with the Seahawks and 49ers having Super Bowl aspirations. There is a four game stretch where we’ll learn where they’re going in weeks 11-14. They travel to the Titans, then go to the Cardinals, host the Titans, then travel to Cincinnati. Last year they swept the Titans but they were blood baths with one of them an overtime win.

Before they take on Houston who is the bully on the block. This team is going to be 8-8 this year if Luck is healthy the whole season. Things are worse if he goes down. When you have 9 games decided by 7 or less, a fickle bounce of the ball is the difference between being 8-8 or 12-4. Last year with Luck, pun intended, they were 11-5. With a first time NFL offensive coordinator, a second year quarterback who develped his play with a departed coach, and a look at this overall roster, this is a 6-10 team. However Andrew Luck is worth at least two more wins. Expect growing pains in Indianapolis for the 2013 season.

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