2016 NFC Championship Preview: Green Bay Packers v. Atlanta Falcons

Well if there are two tickets to paradise, one of them will get punched down in Atlanta today after the Packers take on the Falcons. We will know who will make it to Super Bowl LI from the NFC side of the ledger. Who will win??

This year's George Halas NFC Championship Trophy  just arrived today in Atlanta.

This year’s George Halas NFC Championship Trophy just arrived today in Atlanta.

When it comes to championship football you always start with who will control the line of scrimmage?? Who is coming in with the best defense?? However with the Packers ranked 22nd and the Falcons 26th..what defense??

The Falcons are 28th against the pass and the Packers are 31st… well let the scoring begin.

Julio JonesAaron Rodgers has been the toast of the town since his last second throw to beat the Cowboys last week. Upon further review it’s the Falcons that are coming in with the league’s #2 ranked offense and their 540 points is the 6th highest in NFL history. Did you know when the Falcons and Packers faced each other in 2014, Julio Jones caught 11 passes for 259 yards and 1 score?? Yes that is the most yards by a Falcon receiver in their history.

When the two teams played earlier this season, Jones was held to 3 rec for 29 yards in a 33-32 win. Mohamad Sanu caught 9 for 84 yards and the game winner. Which shows Matt Ryan can score even when Dom Capers takes Jones away schematically. However lost in the euphoria of last week’s win in Dallas is Dez Bryant went off for 9 receptions 132 yards and 2 scores. If Julio goes off today…it could be a long day for Green Bay.

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA;  Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) hands off the ball to wide receiver Ty Montgomery (88) in the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers/The Post-Crescent via USA TODAY SportsThe Packers have won 8 in a row and they have scored over 30 in the last 6 straight. Rodgers has covered team deficiencies and led them to victory in more ways than any QB in football. Right here is where a Ty Montgomery and Aaron Ripkowski can help by sustaining a running game and keep the ball out of Ryan’s hands.

Green Bay is 6-2 this season when they can generate 100 yards in the running game. One of those losses was in Atlanta but they forced Matty Ice to win with a TD throw to Sanu with :31 left in the game. If they can sustain the run at the proper time and rob Atlanta of a couple possessions they can steal this game.

However the game will be decided by the OLine and running game that can impose their will on their opponent. In their matchup earlier this season Tevin Coleman (520 yds 8TDs) missed the game and Davonta Freeman (1,079 yds 11TDs) was held to 35 yards. They are both healthy and this team is 8-2 in games they rushed for over 100 yards.

The team that commits to the run will win this game…and that will be the Atlanta Falcons 38-30. One wildcard no one is talking about is the NFL’s sack leader Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks) and Dwight Freeney will be chasing Aaron Rodgers today. The Falcons need to establish the run and lean on it in the middle of the game where Matt Ryan falls into lulls which necessitate he scramble to win it in the end.

Establish the run and the Atlanta Falcons will be going to Houston to play for this trophy.

The Chancellor & Super Bowl LI Trophy at the Hall of Fame.

The Chancellor & Super Bowl LI Trophy at the Hall of Fame.

2016 NFC Divisional Playoff: Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

One of the biggest misnomers NFL brass has told the public is the phrase “It’s a quarterback driven league.” To that avail The Chancellor of Football has always countered “the game is won on the line of scrimmage.” Well today those axioms collide when the streaking Packers take a trip to Jerry World for today’s divisional match-up.

mccarthy-rodgersTruth be told one of the best things to happen for Aaron Rodgers in this year’s playoffs is to get away from Lambeau Field and into these temperature controlled domes where his play can flourish.  Close your eyes and think of Rodgers greatest playoff games…they’ve all come in domes.

In 2009 he threw for 423 yards and 4 TDs in a 51-45 overtime loss in the desert of Arizona. He followed that up on the march to Super Bowl XLV when he torched Atlanta in the Georgia Dome 48-21. In that one he was 31 of 36 for 366 yards throwing for 3 scores. Two weeks later he lit up the Steelers for 304 yards and 3 TDs in Jerry World to bring home the Lombardi. Rodgers game is never going to go 3 straight cold weather playoff games to the Super Bowl and he has to get out of Lambeau Field in January to get the Packers there.

Before last week, even all his Hail Mary’s had taken place in domes on the road and make no mistake he is the only way Green Bay wins this football game.

elliottWhen it comes to winning the game on the line of scrimmage, no one has illustrated this better than the Cowboys offensive line. In October 2014 The Chancellor of Football christened this group The Great Wall II as they have now paved the way for a 2nd rushing champion in Ezekiel Elliott. His 1,631 yards were buoyed by a 28 carry 157 yard performance at Lambeau that shapes the heart of this game.

Back in October C Travis Frederick, G Zack Martin, Ronald Leary, T Doug Free & Tyron Smith paved the way for 33 attempts and 191 yards rushing. This was also the game where Dak Prescott (18 of 27 for 247 yds 3TDs & 1 ints) proved he was no fluke out playing Rodgers (31 of 42 294 yds 1 TD & 1 ints) while only being sacked twice. When they line up with 2 backs and especially 2 TEs, Dallas wins on early downs. They wear out the defense and keep Prescott in manageable 2nd and 3rd down situations.

matthewsThis is where the game boils down to is Aaron Rodgers has to start hot and establish an early lead and force Prescott to throw. If they can do this and effectively take the ball out of Elliott’s hands they can control the tempo and make the Cowboys press on offense. Then Dom Capers can unleash Clay Matthews and show the exotic packages that have doomed young quarterbacks at this juncture of the playoffs.

This is where the rubber meets the road.

Not only is Green Bay 20th against the rush but they are 0-2 this season when facing a top 10 rushing attack. Who are those two teams?? Dallas ranked 2nd and Atlanta ranked 5th. In the NFL its hard to repeat an earlier performance however when you can knock your opponent back, that gameplan can travel.

Much like Emmitt Smith and the first Great Wall, we’ll have to go with Ezekiel Elliott and this one in this matchup. Dallas will win 37-24.

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Wildcard Weekend: New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

It wouldn’t be the NFL playoffs without a playoff game on the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field. Tonight we’re going to dip a couple degrees below zero wind chill. With both of these teams allergic to running the football this game is tricky to pick.

eli-frozenHowever the Packers have committed to running the football in recent weeks with #88 Ty Montgomery in the backfield. How will he hold onto the football with playoff intensity hitting?? He led the team in rushing this year with 457 yards but McCarthy may use #22 Aaron Ripkowski more. He’s more 3 yards and a cloud of dust but he is conditioned to the hitting from close proximity more. Fumbles are critical in cold weather playoff games.

Over the last 6 years of his career, this has been the hardest season to watch him. He just hasn’t looked comfortable all season. His play has been sporadic even though he threw for 4,027 yards 26 TDs and 16 interceptions. Much of this has to do with Odell Beckham’s ability to break big plays for him. He has to keep from turning the ball over on his side of the 50.

Which Eli Manning is going to show up?

Aaron Rodgers has had another great season and many think he should receive MVP consideration. He finished the season with 4,427 yards 40 TDs with just 7 interceptions. He led the Packers to a 5 game winning streak to finish the season as he predicted they would run the table. However none of this happened in below zero weather. For the last 5 years our CEO has questioned if this is the best approach to winning in Lambeau in January. It hasn’t panned out.

Ripkowski could be the unknown factor.

Ripkowski could be the unknown factor.

The penchant for Mike McCarthy to pass, pass, pass could play in the Giants hands as their defense is leading their charge. He has to fight that urge and stay on the ground. Although the Packers have scored over 30 in their last 4 games, the Giants have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 10 points or less.

New York comes into this game with the NFL’s 10th best defense giving up 339 yards per game. However a closer look and the Giants have only given up 288.5 yards per game in the last 4. That would have the Giants ranked #1 and this is how they are coming into Lambeau Field. Early in the season Green Bay receivers were having a hard time getting open. Now they face CBs Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who have jelled into the best secondary in football. At least from the corner position. They will smother the slow Packers receivers.

Jenkins and the CBs for New York are the key to New York winning this game.

Jenkins and the CBs for New York are the key to New York winning this game.

On the strength of this defensive matchup and the cold, the defense will keep Eli and the offense in it. They will need 1 or 2 explosive plays from Odell Beckham and the Giants will win a close game 23-16. Eli Manning has always risen to the occasion when he needs to make that one play.

 

2016 NFC Predictions

As the nation mourns the 15th anniversary of 9/11, we’re kicking off another NFL season. The memorials have made today more sobering than the open giddiness of last week’s kickoff with college football. Yet we move on and remember those lost.

Winston is growing as a signal caller.

Winston is growing as a signal caller.

Here in Phoenix, all the radio shows have been abuzz with a Super Bowl or bust season for the Arizona Cardinals. Of course their flagship station is all pro Cardinals with only one on air personality, John Gambadoro, remembering his awful finish. This echoes The Chancellor of Football’s view that their season begins and ends with the psyche of a 37 yr old quarterback who has never had NFL postseason success. Our NFC West preview still has Seattle as the class of the division.

In Dallas, the Cowboys feel they have found their quarterback for the future in Dak Prescott. With 1st round pick Ezekiel Elliott the offense will benefit from an offensive line that paved the way for 2014 rushing champion DeMarco Murray. The question is how will Prescott perform when he is faced with real exotic NFL regular season defenses?? Will it be enough for the Dallas Cowboys to win the east??

rs_news_photoNFC West Champs: Seattle Seahawks 12-4**

NFC North Champs: Green Bay Packers 12-4

NFC South Champs: Carolina Panthers 10-6

NFC East Champs: New York Giants 9-7

Wildcards – Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The team to reach Super Bowl LI in Houston will be the Seattle Seahawks. Once there they will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 33-26 to win their 2nd title in a 4 year period.

Russell Wilson will have an MVP season as he matured into a total quarterback last year in Marshawn Lynch’s absence. Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael will be able to maintain a solid rushing attack. Wilson can still take off on runs to supplement his growing prowess as a passer. Keep in mind he has already been to 2 Super Bowls and down the stretch he threw for 24 TDs to only 1 interception in the last 7 games.

The Legion of Boom defense is still formidable and finished 2nd only to the World Champion Denver Broncos. They are still the best team in football and if they force teams to make that long trek to the Pacific Northwest, this team is hoisting the trophy.

In the East, the New York Giants with their offensive weapons will lean on their defense for the first part of this season. Yes you heard that correctly. Eli Manning and the offensive woes of the preseason will take until midseason before they gel late. Coach Jason Garrett’s defense is way too porous for the Cowboys to win this division or even make a playoff push.

The roof will cave in on the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles for different reasons. Kirk Cousins will have it all on his shoulders as the Redskins let Alfred Morris go. NFL Defensive Coordinators now have a year of film on Cousins and he will have a sophomore slump and no proven runner to lean on.

The Eagles are a mess and are about to start a rookie QB in Carson Wentz who missed most of the preseason with a rib injury. Are you serious?? Philadelphia may win less than 4 games this season.

The Chancellor & Super Bowl LI Trophy at the Hall of Fame.

The Chancellor & Super Bowl LI Trophy at the Hall of Fame.

However the Seattle Seahawks are the class of the NFC and the NFL and will win Super Bowl LI.

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2016 NFC North Previews & Predictions

When news of Teddy Bridgewater’s injury surfaced on social media, you knew it was bad. To cancel practice and there were Vikings players visibly getting ill the question arose: Will Teddy Bridgewater ever suit up again for the Minnesota Vikings?? For once there was no video and our collective imaginations ran with what we pictured based upon eye witness accounts like a long begone era. How bad was this knee / leg injury??

Clay buries Cutler

Clay buries Cutler

Speaking of knee injuries, a one Jordy Nelson comes back to the Green Bay Packers to give Aaron Rodgers his full arsenal of receivers. However he hasn’t cut on that reconstructed knee in a meaningful NFL game in nearly 2 years. Will he have his full range of motion and agility?? Before his injury this was one of the best overall receivers in the NFL based on quickness in and out of his cuts. He can also get deep. Will he have the full confidence to run on that knee with the reckless abandon as before??

Statues of Vince Lombardi & Curly Lambeau

Statues of Vince Lombardi & Curly Lambeau

2016 NFC North Predictions

Green Bay Packers 12-4**

Minnesota Vikings  9-7

Detroit Lions 6-10

Chicago Bears 3-13

The regular season is just a dress rehearsal for Green Bay to exercise dominance over this division. Last year Aaron Rodgers needed miracle Hail Mary’s to pull off victories in Detroit than again against the Cardinals in the wildcard round. This was important in his evolution since he rarely brought the Packers back from behind in the past. Now they are never out of a ballgame. His 347 of 572 for 3,821 yards for 31 TDs was solid considering he was missing his #1 weapon all year. He learned to trust all of his receivers as evidenced with TE Richard Rodgers (58 rec. 510 yds 8 TDs) and Devante Adams (50 rec. 483 yds 1TD) having career years and these are the and 5th options with Jordy back.

The Packers should lean more on the short pass and their rushing by committee a little more. Last year he was sacked 46 times and Green Bay just released 3 time Pro Bowl G Josh Sitton. Rodgers has to get James Starks (601 yds 2 TDs) and Eddie Lacy (758 yds 3 TDs) running forward to keep defenses honest. By midseason Starks should emerge as the man with Lacy’s up and down weight and performance taking it’s toll on the staff. Eddie will start to break down with the accumulative hits as well without being able to avoid contact. Keep your eye on this going into the 2nd half of the season.

Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer watches his team during an NFL mini camp in Eden Prairie, Minn., Tuesday, June 17, 2014. (AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

(AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

With :22 to go in last year’s NFC Wildcard Tilt with Seattle, the Vikings were readying themselves for a trip to Arizona. Head Coach Mike Zimmer’s squad had improved from 7-9 to 11-5 with an improving QB in Bridgewater and they were about to vanquish Seattle for the 1st playoff win of the Zimmer/Bridgewater era. Alas Blair Walsh misses a 27 yard kick sending the Vikings home for the season.

Fast forward through Bridgewater’s injury and you have a team teetering on 36 yr old Shaun Hill or journeyman Sam Bradford to quarterback this team back to the postseason. They’ll have to lean on improvement from last year’s 13th ranked defense and an aging but still effective Adrian Peterson ( 1,485 yds / 11 TDs). Pro Bowlers SS Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr, and DE Anderson Griffen need to duplicate last year’s success for this team to even think of making the playoffs.

The problem is having an unsettled QB situation when starting 2 of 3 on the road in Tennessee and defending NFC Champion Carolina. Sandwiched between these two games has Zimmer’s crew hosting the Green Bay Packers and an 0-3 start is very possible.

The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions are both totally rudderless ships. Both teams are incomplete and need to focus on discovering where they aregoing with current personnel. Matthew Stafford should lead the Lions to a few more wins this season than Cutler in Chicago.

Just not enough to offset this year’s Green Bay squad. Thanks for reading and please share the article.

 

 

 

 

 

The Chancellor’s Take: Green Bay Packers & Brett Favre’s Broken Relationship – HOF Edition

Originally published 24 July, 2012 w/ Postscript 13, August 2016

Coach Mike Holmgren being carried off after winning Super Bowl XXXI.

Coach Mike Holmgren being carried off after winning Super Bowl XXXI.

Former Packers coach Mike Holmgren was inducted into the Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame last week and didn’t have his two marquee players there with him. Of course the deceased Reggie White couldn’t attend but Brett Favre’s absence was glaring. It would have been in Favre’s best interest to have taken the high road and gone but the lingering hard feelings are evident. It’s time to mend this broken relationship.

What is disturbing is how fast Packers fans turned on him. How hard would it be to leave a job you loved to do?? Many of us can’t answer that because our professions were something we chose to do for financial reasons not one of passion. For every “cheesehead” Packer fan: Can you tell me anything about John Brockington or Terdell Middleton?? You remember those guys right?? How about Vince Ferragamo?? He was the quarterback that took the Los Angeles Rams to Super Bowl XIV against the Steelers. You do remember he played for the Packers right?? What number did he wear since #15 was obviously retired for Bart Starr?? For those of us that are 40-45, when we were kids, none of us living outside of Wisconsin could tell you we had met a Packer fan.

After Lombardi, it was 29 years before the Packers played for another NFL title. Green Bay was the place no one wanted to play for. In fact one of the famous quips on NFL Films by Buccaneers former coach John McKay, ” If these guys won’t get back I’ll run ’em to Green Bay.” This was during Tampa’s horrid 0-26 start as a franchise!! The only Green Bay games of distinction during that 3 decade drought that anyone can remember was the 1982 NFL Divisional Playoff loss to Dallas 38-27 and the 1983 Monday Night win over the World Champion Redskins 48-47. The latter was the highest scoring Monday Night Game in NFL history. The Packers returned to national prominence when WR John Jefferson was traded from the San Diego Chargers for those early 80’s seasons.

Brett Favre made it fashionable to be a Green Bay Packer fan.

The real reason why folks can’t remember the aforementioned names and the two games I stated were many of you weren’t Green Bay Packer fans. It didn’t become fashionable until the era of Brett Favre and Mike Holmgren. You may have been cheering for the Los Angeles Rams, St Louis Cardinals, Dallas, or Oakland, but this nationwide surge of Packer fans is new. You can recall the rich Packers history from the 1960’s but the other years lie somewhere in the abyss.

Well in 1992 all of that changed. Brett Favre was on the bench when Don Majowski fell to injury and an umproven player had to come off the bench. We remember him winning the game with a pass to Kittrick Taylor with :23 left in the game. He ran around like a child after winning his first NFL game. He did it again when he did it with less than :40 to go to win his first playoff game when he hit Sterling Sharpe in 1993. He played with passion and from the hip. He broke Ron Jaworski’s record of consecutive games played at QB (114) the week of Walter Payton’s death in 1999. He was still playing in 2009??

During his 16 years he gave everything he could on the field for the Packers. Other quarterbacks are more revered as “West Coast” quarterbacks yet none of them had better seasons than he did. Do you realize the most TDs Joe Montana threw for in a season was 31 during the strike shortened season of 1987?? Brett threw for 38,39, and 33 in 1995-1997 alone in that same offense.  He won those 3 MVPs in those same years. He gave real Packer fans and NFL fans everywhere more thrills than any other player. The “go for it” mentality is what endeared him to most fans not his stats. Although he has plenty now that he is the NFL’s all time winningest quarterback and yardage leader with 71,838 yards and 508 TDs. The question The Chancellor has if he didn’t do enough to decide on when he wanted to retire, who did??

The Packers organization decided to go with Aaron Rodgers after the 2007 season when Favre didn’t want to retire. His decision and indecision was well chronicled over the next few seasons yet it was his play that led the Packers to relevancy. Just like last year it was pointed out that the Super Bowl in Indianapolis, and Lucas Oil Stadium itself, wouldn’t be in existence had it not been for Peyton Manning. Lambeau Field has been renovated twice and had a Hall of Fame built inside of it based on the relative wealth this team saw during Favre’s years. The estimated wealth of the Packers rose from less than $200 million to $1.09 Billion last year according to Forbes.

This is good enough for being the 9th richest franchise where they were in the teens in relative worth a decade ago. In fact when you google the relative worth of the Packers organization by year, every time Favre’s name is in the description.  You were able to rebuild your team for Aaron Rodgers because of Favre continuing to win for you while the young players developed. You owe your relative wealth and the development of the new Packers to him.

This is the reason I believe the Packers should reach out to him, retire his jersey on a Monday Night, and have a ceremony for him.  Do it before long-standing resentment settles in. It would be terrible to see this fractured relationship go on for decades like it did for Terry Bradshaw. By the time he and the Steelers came together, Art Rooney Sr, Mike Webster, and Steeler announcer Myron Cope had all passed on. In fact Three Rivers Stadium was even gone. It was bittersweet. In a few years he is eligible for the Hall  of Fame and the league is going to celebrate him and its in the Packers interest to do it first. If you wait until its within a year of his induction, it will look like an afterthought or at worst a knee jerk reaction to his being brought up nationally. This way the healing can start.

Every player that leaves via free agency has wanted to show their old team they could still do it. Its nothing new. Do you remember the round robin of former Chiefs signing with the Raiders and vice versa in the mid 90s?? There were 10 players that left one team and went to the other. RB Harvey Williams, RB Marcus Allen, CB Albert Lewis to name a few. Even Buffalo Bill great Thurman Thomas even signed with the hated Dolphins. Yet he, just like LaDainian Tomlinson this year all came back and signed a 1 day contract so they could retire with their original team. You’ve lost that chance but now you need to make sure he attends the next ceremony. Honor him before the rest of football does or you’ll come off as looking petty. After all you showed him the door…now open a new one and honor him in Packer lore. Time to get over it… now when he walks up to the podium and you see the wear and tear he gave on Lambeau’s surface, the memories will come flooding back to you.

Try this one out: This is the moment The Chancellor believes he left his contemporaries behind and made the Hall of Fame.

After the departure of Packer Hall of Fame coach Mike Holmgrenand Reggie White’s retirement, the Packers weren’t thought of as an elite team. This was 1999 and Ray Rhodes was the coach and being the only marquee player, the team started off 1-1 and in that lone victory Favre took the Packers to the winning score beginning with 1:51 on the clock. Their 3rd game was against the Minnesota Vikings who had unseated the Packers the season before as the bully on the NFC Central block. Randy Moss and the Vikings had scorched the Packers a season before and this was a big game. A defensive struggle that saw Moss score the apparent winning touchdown and gave the Packers the football with 1:51 (ironically) to go. Favre drove his team down and this was the finish…on the move with no time outs on 4th down and the clock running with :20 seconds to go. No way he could do it for a second straight week…. could he??

Only two times during John Madden’s career did he make his way down to the locker room to congratulate a player. The first was Emmitt Smith in 1993 when he and the Cowboys beat the Giants 13-10 when he played with a separated shoulder. This was the second. Great players respect great players and you saw Moss come across and greet Favre after the game.  A game for the ages that saw him pull off miracle after miracle and had the Rams and Kurt Warner not emerged, could have had his 4th straight MVP.

Again, as an organization step up and bring Favre in for a retirement ceremony of #4. He deserves it and it would be best for Packer fans and NFL fans everywhere.  Its time.

Postscript August 13, 2016: We fast forward 4 years and last year his return to Lambeau Field was an incredible event. Over 60,000 in Lambeau just for Farve to come on the field and offer a few words before the Packers Hall of Fame celebration. Then the jersey retirement during the season where Bart Starr made it to the game was cathartic for all NFL fans not just those of the Packers. Which brings us to last weekend and his enshrinement into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

VanAcker@hallPacker fans traveled far and wide to attend the enshrinement festivities last weekend. Met them from North Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, all of Wisconsin and like my new fellow fanatics Ryan VanAcker (from Arizona) and his brother Ronald from Michigan, Favre fans were out in force.

You could feel the excitement emanating from Packer fans as the induction ceremony neared. The pressure building as Packer jerseys outnumbered all other teams represented 20 to 1 easily. Even on the day I toured “The Hall” for the first time I wore an autographed Jerry Kramer jersey I had received from the family a couple weeks before. Finally the emotion and love for Favre exploded in a crescendo of “Go Pack! Go!” right before Chris Berman introduced him:

Although time heals all wounds, there was still the subtle jab of the Favre Viking jersey in the locker display at the Hall of Fame. He said all the right things about “always being remembered as a Green Bay Packer” but you think about it… you can almost see him having a mischievous grin when it came time to decide what to showcase.  But that’s Favre… the fun but flawed, every man who happened to become one of the best quarterbacks in history.

Where Brett wasn’t there for Mike Holmgren’s enshrinement into the Green Bay Packers’s Hall of Fame, coach was in Canton for this one. I had the chance to meet him right after the ceremony and it was a great experience to be there.favre.bust

Congratulations Brett Favre… Pro Football Hall of Famer!

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