Super Bowl LX Prediction

This game begins and ends with the Seahawks #2 defense gettinf after Patriot QB Drake Maye.  He is the 1st in the 60 year history of the Super Bowl to be sacked 5 times in both playoff games before.

The Patriots have to start off with turnovers but the Seahawks defense will force 2 1st half turnovers that will put them on cruise control.

Sam Darnold vindicates his 2018 draft status by winning this game 34-15.

Overcoaching: Vol 3. Super Bowl XLIX Edition

Reissued Aritcle: 9, February 2014

“One of the dumbest calls in Super Bowl history that robbed the Seattle Seahawks from establishing a dynasty. Became the turning point in the way Russell Wilson was seen as a leader. He lost his PFHoF status on the goal line in Pheonix and his descent in stature began at that point. Its impossible to see the Seahawks v Patriots in the Super Bowl and not think back to the game and that stupid call at the goal line. Do you realize the play run was the exact same play concept the Tennessee Titans ran that didn’t work in Super Bowl XXXIV?? They just ran it with Kevin Dyson cutting behind TE Frank Wycheck. Gave you the link. Go look… but after you read this…”

Super Bowl XLIX was a great game but the end left a lot of fans empty as Seattle opted for a pass from the 1 with seconds left to play. Immediately I railed it was the worst play call in Super Bowl history on social media. Many former NFLers agreed. So after a small hiatus my thought hadn’t changed and now it was time to revisit another classic case of overcoaching in the NFL.

First off… if anyone thinks the Seattle  throwing that pass at the one yard line was the right play call, then they think Vince Lombardi called the wrong play on the final play of the Ice Bowl. Its that simple. One of his philosophies played out at the goal line during the final seconds of both the 1966 & 1967 NFL Championship Games.

Lombardi’s philosophy was in a pressure situation, players would make mistakes in Tom Landry’s complicated offense. The Cowboys had the ball at the 2 with less than 2 minutes to go down 34-27. They had momentum and had just scored on the drive previous. True to form T Jim Bokeim had a false start… remember they did a lot of shifting on the line. On the final play, which was a rollout, RG Leon Donohue ran past Packer LB Dave Robinson instead of blocking him. Robinson hurried Don Meredith into a game ending endzone interception.

The rubber match for the Ice  Bowl (1967 championship) saw the reverse as the Packers were down to the 2 yard line with less than 2 minutes to go. After two plays and a final timeout, Green Bay was at the 1 with :16 left down 17-14. Where Tom Landry was heard yelling “watch Starr on the rollout”, Lombardi’s Packers went with a QB sneak to win the game. A simplified play.  Years later in recalling Lombardi’s philosophy, G Jerry Kramer said “When the game or life is on the line, you don’t gamble and you put your faith in the defensive player’s chest.”

A philosophy the Seattle Seahawks had believed in until the 1 minute mark of Super Bowl XLIX. Some new age philosophies have made coaches overthink and overcoach situations lately. Ever since that Monday Night game where Brian Westbrook had that breakaway run at the end of the game against the Dallas Cowboys and slid down to run out the clock, people have been overcoaching end of game scenarios.

03_ball_grand_canyon_1_hi_nat1366However I said it right after…that was the same play call the Titans went with in Super Bowl XXXIV when Mike Jones tackled Kevin Dyson at the 1 yard line also. That stacked receiver slant is 0-2 in late Super Bowl moments. Truth is they should have run the ball twice with the read option and kept it on the ground. They should have immediately run a play after Lynch made it to the 1.

Fist lets take a look at the early stages of the game when Marshawn Lynch scored to tie the game at 7.

You’ll note the first run Lynch face initial contact at the 9 ans made it to the 6 1/2 yard line. Then on the touchdown he faced initial contact at the two and powered to more than a yard into the endzone. He’s the best contact runner since Corey Dillon and he was constantly falling forward during the game.

Now we get to the fateful last plays of Super Bowl XLIX.

Had Seattle rushed to the line of scrimmage with the 1:06 left (after Lynch made it to the 1) New England may have let them score (another bone head new age move) to ensure Brady would have a chance with the football and more clock. Don’t tell me Belichick doesn’t think that way because he was lauded for his taking a late game safety against Denver 10 years ago so the Patriots would get the ball back with time and field position… Had Seattle got up and rushed to the line, New England also wouldn’t have sent in their goal line 3 corners package where Seattle would have been better suited to block. Wasn’t that why Pete Carroll said they were wasting a play??

By not rushing back to the line the Seahawks overcoached the situation. There comes a time where coaches have to drop those silly play charts and coach on guts. Lynch had gained positive yards after contact on all of his runs. Even his last carry he broke a tackle at the 4 and made it to the 1. Had they hurried and faced the same defense the next play you don’t think he scores from the 1?? That same personnel he powered through for their first touchdown and 3 yards after contact.

Bill Belichick was saving all of his timeouts and let the clock run down to :32 seconds before Seattle snapped the football.

Yet alas Malcolm Butler ended the Seahawks bid for back to back Super Bowl championships. Coaches have to get back to owning each situation and score first and win the game. Don’t sit and speculate when you can or even if you will score on a later play. You just have to trust your defense. If you can think back to Super Bowl XLVI between the Patriots and the Giants, Ahmad Bradshaw tried not to score when he “accidently” fell in the endzone. Taking a 17-15 lead, the Giant defense held off Tom Brady in that one. You have to rely on your defense.

Another clear case of overcoaching and now Seattle has to let this fester as they ponder an opportunity lost. It could fuel their trip to Super Bowl L in San Francisco’s new stadium. Stay tuned…

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Super Bowl XLVI Preview:Bill Belichick & His Place In History

The best coach of the last 50 years and possibly in the history of the NFL

Reissue of Article: 31, January 2012

“With the disgraceful indignity of not being a 1st ballot Hall of Famer this week,I thought it a great time to rehash an article discussing his place some 14 Super Bowls ago. If I was telling you he would rank with Vince Lombardi had he triumphed, where does it leave him now he coached in another 4 Super Bowls after this game winning XLIX, LI, and LIII. He even lost another one to the Eagles in LII. Think about that a second…

For the idiots saying it was all Tom Brady. Who do you think taught him all that situational football to be that prepared? Don’t be a dummy. Anyway…”

When you talk of the great coaches in NFL history, even the ardent Patriot hater has to put Bill Belichick on the short list. If his team leaves Lucas Oil Stadium with the Vince Lombardi Trophy, it’s namesake will be the only coach he can be compared to. It would be his fourth championship as a head coach and sixth overall. All of this coming in the modern era with player movement in true free agency?? Yikes!! You’d have to look at it like this… Vince Lombardi was the greatest coach in the first 50 years of NFL history (1920-1969) and Belichick would be the greatest from 1970 to the present.

How can we say that?? First let’s dispel the “Spy Gate” situation. In a game of simulated war with blitzes and bombs and protecting zone areas on a field / map: wouldn’t you expect some sort of espionage?? Dont forget that in 1958 John Steadman of the Baltimore Sun Times reported that Baltimore Colts owner Carroll Rosenbloom had an assistant watch the New York Giants practice before the NFL Championship Game. Rosenbloom assured him that if he were caught, he’d have a job for life with the team. Watch the NFL Films production on the 1958 Championship and you can hear it first hand.

A long time I watched Bill’s work.

Then somewhere in the 60’s to put an end to this, Pete Rozell put in Tuesday film swap day. That way the teams could share intel on each other to put the spy thing to bed. Yet everyone is always trying to steal other team’s signals. Fast forward to Bill Walsh in 1979 who was the first to script his 15 plays and have an elaborate sheet with plays in front of him.  He was the first head coach to be completely under a headset all game long. Whenever he would call plays he would use his play sheet to cover his mouth to protect himself from lip readers. This practice is still in place today. Watch the playcaller on the sideline and where once teams had elaborate hand signals, now hold up a play sheet. Quarterbacks have transmitters in their helmets now.

So quit hawking Belichick about that already. Now back to what we were saying…

If you look at his tenure against other coaches from 1970 on, you can’t come up with a more successful coach. He just made his 5th Super Bowl to tie Tom Landry. If he wins he’ll have tied Chuck Noll with 4 Super Bowl titles. Yet what sets him apart is only Tom Brady remains from his 2001 championship where Noll won with primarily the same players.

Hell, only 1 defensive starter remains from the 2007 defense that went 16-0. That would be Vince Wilfork. Noll never returned to the Super Bowl and only made 1 AFC Championship after the 70’s run. Belichick has won with 3 incarnations of the Patriots since 2001. Tom Landry and Don Shula did that but neither could get past 2 championships with Belichick going for number 4. Which would put him ahead of Bill Walsh who has 3.

So it’s at this point, the New York Giants are the gatekeepers to history. With this win Belichick will ascend to the rank of the greatest coach in the last 50 years of the NFL. Ironically he won his first two as a defensive co-ordinator for the New York Giants. Another irony is he doesn’t seem to be close to retirement. If there are other championships in his future he would even have to best Lombardi and be thought of as the greatest ever coach.

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’25 AFC Championship Game: Patriots v. Broncos

We’ve made it to the precipice of Super Bowl LX now that we’re here at the AFC Championship Game. We haven’t had a championship where the 2nd string quarterback had to start the conference championship game after not taking a snap this season. The Broncos should be in good shape as there isn’t a tremendous dropoff between injured Bo Nix and Jarett Stidham. The truth is a closer look shows Nix has the clutch gene but his overall play…

Stidham has to be what Nick Foles was on the 2017 champion Philadelphia Eagles when he took over for Carson Wentz. Don’t get behind on the chains and get drives into scoring territory to get 3 field goals and play to their defense.

Last week we watched the Texans defense terrorize Drake Maye and the Patriots offense to the tune of 5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Now he has to face the Broncos who set a team record 68 sacks (4th in NFL history) on a silent snap count and their rested?? I don’t see it…

The Broncos should force 4+ turnovers and get 7 sacks creating a short field. Stidham needs the 3 FG drives to go with 2 short field TD drives to win 23-15.

Off to Super Bowl LX