Category Archives: 2012 Regular Season

NFL Week 14: Atlanta Falcons v. Houston Texans – A Matter Of Perception

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Jonathon Stewart and the Panthers took the Falcons to school on Sunday.

Jonathon Stewart and the Panthers took the Falcons to school on Sunday.

As the NFL playoffs near, we see teams jockeying for playoff positioning,  and pundits making arguments for which teams will do well in the postseason. The Taylor Blitz Times is no different in that regard. The most interesting scenario that has occurred this season is no one believes in the teams with the best records. The Atlanta Falcons along with the Houston Texans were handed big losses and the chant of “over-rated” reverberated throughout the NFL fan-base via twitter &  facebook. Even NFL.com ran a story to this degree, however appearances can be deceiving.

If you look at the two teams and each loss, they’re very dissimilar. The Houston Texans took to a big stage to show the defending AFC Champion Patriots and the rest of the conference that they were to be taken serious. Homefield advantage throughout the playoffs is at stake and everyone watched them get obliterated 42-14, on Monday Night Football in a game where everyone had this date on the calender circled for months. The Falcons /Panthers game was nothing like that. It wasn’t one where Atlanta needed to prove themselves. They have already been to the playoffs four straight years and for the first time may have homefield throughout. They were just caught off guard by a division opponent who knows them and matches up well against them.

houston-texans-v-england-patriots-20121210-192412-399In their earlier match-up this season, Carolina had the chance to run out the clock on the Falcons, but a Cam Newton fumble under 2 minutes to go kept them from a game clinching first down. After a punt that pinned Atlanta to their own 10, Matt Ryan launched a 60 yard bomb to Roddy White on the next play which helped set up the game winning kick by Matt Bryant.  That 30-28 win established two things: The first is the Falcons’ ability to come from behind and win close games as they have all year. Do you realize the Falcons are 8-1 in games decided by 7 or less this season?? That is the mark of a champion.

The second, it established the Panthers as a team that could give Atlanta’s defense fits running right at them. Try to the tune of 199 yards, then 195 last Sunday, which allowed Carolina control of the clock and the line of scrimmage.

As each team gathered in their second loss, the buzzards started to circle. For us the real measure of what took place on Sunday and Monday Night, showed the Texans on the short end of the stick. They lined up against the team that played in last year’s Super Bowl and were beaten soundly. Most of the talk after last year’s playoff run was “Well if we would have had Matt Schaub…” Last week, they had him and he turned in a lackluster 19 of 32 for 232 yards and 1 interception performance. It didn’t seem he was as big as the game they were playing, lacking leadership and fight throughout. Nevermind his earlier Pro Bowl status…this was the proving ground for him and his team. You had Arian Foster, who has led the NFL in rushing and all he could muster was a 15 carry 46 yard performance. Hell teammate Ben Tate ran for that much in garbage time. Once you include Andre Johnson, none of the vital signs for Houston were functioning when the clock struck zero.

In the game with the Patriots, the Texans had their manhood taken and the only way to get it back is to take it back. Coach Kubiak has to use that as motivation to get this team ready for the playoffs. Their confidence has to be shaken…

As for the Falcons, Coach Smith needs to keep the ship steady yet find out what has happened to their offensive rhythm. In the last two weeks they have averaged 322.5 yards per game when in the previous 4 weeks the average was 421.5. That translates into a time of possession difference that may make the Falcons more beatable than in the season’s first 10 weeks. Each has work to do but the psychological fallout from the loss in New England gives the Houston Texans the tougher hill to climb.

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NFL Week 13: AFC West – Both Ends Of The Spectrum

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Peyton Manning has had command of the Bronco huddle from the outset.

Peyton Manning has had command of the Bronco huddle from the outset.

At this time last year, the Denver Broncos won the AFC West on the last week of the season, although they staggered to an 8-8 finish. This year with Peyton Manning orchestrating the offense, they have actually scored 349 points in 12 games where last year they scored 309 in 16. Their 9-3 record is good enough to wrap up the AFC West with a month left in the season. Although pundits like Peter King hailed the Broncos from the outset, we here at Taylor Blitz like to see progressive growth during the season. Make no mistake the Broncos are an improved team…but are we witnessing a transcendent team or are they the beneficiary of a weak division??

Before we start…take a look at the standings:

West Division

W

L

T

PCT

PF

PA

Home

Road

DIV

CONF

Strk

Last5
Denver Broncos y-Broncos 9 3 0 .750 349 244 5-1 4-2 4-0 6-2 W7 5-0
San Diego Chargers Chargers 4 8 0 .333 258 257 2-4 2-4 3-2 4-5 L4 1-4
Oakland Raiders Raiders 3 9 0 .250 235 376 2-4 1-5 1-2 3-6 L5 0-5
Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs 2 10 0 .167 188 322 1-6 1-4 0-4 0-8 W1 1-4

Did you notice the Chargers are in the midst of a 4 game losing streak, the Raiders in a 5 game losing streak, and even though the Chiefs won Sunday, it broke an 8 game losing streak for them?? So what does the crown in the AFC West really mean?? Against a group that had lost 17 straight games…

We need a litmus test that can tell us who the Broncos are and how strong they are. Now that they’re division champs, we have to assess if the Broncos are able to make a Super Bowl run. In actuality there is much in the way of substance but even more in the way of a mirage. Do you realize that aside from Sunday’s game with Tampa, the last time they played a team with a winning record was October 15th?? Even that game was against the backsliding Chargers who have lost 7 of their last 8 games. In their 7 game winning streak, only 2 have come against winning teams. In fact, the Broncos are only 4-3 against teams with winning records. One of the wins came against the Steelers who didn’t have Troy Palamalu, James Harrison, and Ryan Clark. You have to put an asterisk next to that one when assessing strength.

The Broncos are clearly a better team with Manning at the helm.  Denver’s offense is #5 in total offense and #3 in total defense but are they battle-hardened?? That is The Chancellor’s point. You have a team that is feasting on a lot of patsies and padding their record like an old Big 8 Nebraska college football team. They have losses to the Patriots and the Texans who have tie breaker advantages over them and Denver would have to travel to either in the playoffs. They are -3 in the turnover margin and the defense has only forced 10 turnovers on the road. Six of those came against the hapless Chargers.

Peyton Manning should be runaway NFL Comeback Player of the Year and in the thick of NFL’s MVP talks as well. He’s completed 304 of 447 (68%) for 3,502 yards, 29TDs with only 9 interceptions. He’s done this with a moderately talented receiving staff and has been the steadying hand for this year. Especially with the loss of Willis McGahee until the playoffs, teams are still gearing toward Manning. Wideout DeMaryius (what kind of name is that) Thomas is having a career year. His 69 receptions, 1,114 yards, and 8 touchdowns pace Bronco receivers. Thomas has more than doubled his 2011 output and still has 4 games to go.

Von Miller has been everywhere this year.

Von Miller has been everywhere this year.

There are some points of substance at individual positions. Von Miller has catapulted himself into the Taylor Blitz Time’s NFL Defensive Player of The Year award conversation. With 53 total tackles, 15 1/2 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, and an interception for a touchdown, this is a force. Those are Lawrence Taylor type stats and his highlights over the last month, no one has been able to match his play.

The secondary hasn’t forced a lot of turnovers and only have 5 interceptions for the year amongst the starters. How will this team fare in the playoffs in a game where they can’t generate a pass rush?? Most of these questions are going to go unanswered until we get into the thick of the NFL playoffs. What Coach John Fox hopes is the team can ride the wonderful wave of confidence once the playoffs start.

One game that now looms important is that week 15 match-up in Baltimore. Now that the Ravens lost to the Steelers, Denver is within striking distance of taking the #3 seed away with a win. If they lose in Baltimore, the Broncos worst fears could surface right before the postseason begins.  They’d have to be on the road for both the divisional playoff and conference championship games if they lose in Baltimore. That could send them to New England and Houston barring any upsets. Don’t forget they lost to both teams already and the nightmare loss to New England in last year’s playoffs could flash in the minds of Bronco players along with this year’s regular season loss. That could sap the confidence of the team if they fall behind early.

In other words…  no game will shape the 2012 AFC playoffs like the week 15 Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens matchup. The winner should at least make the AFC C hampionship…the loser?? Maybe the divisional round. Don’t look now but the Ravens are averaging 34 points per game at home. Buckle your chinstraps boys…the playoffs are coming

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NFL Week 12: Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck??

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Robert Griffin IIIWhen you talk about sports there is always some team or someone being compared…Magic vs. Bird, Jim Brown vs. Walter Payton, Barry Sanders vs. Emmitt Smith, the 1985 Chicago Bears defense vs. the 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense, and without further adieu we bring you the newest in Andrew Luck vs. Robert Griffin III. For those that are fans fo the Colts or Redskins, we know you’re biased and this is more for the NFL fan who can stay objective.

So who is better??

From the Heisman Trophy presentation in New York, through the combines and the NFL Draft, these two have been compared extensively to one another. Right now, both the Washington Redskins and Indianapolis Colts feel they have their man. Although Washington has a 5-6 record at the present time, there is a new energy and excitement this team is building on this year. Do you realize that when the ‘Skins and RG III beat Minnesota 38-26 back in October, they broke an 8 game losing streak at home?? At home?? The final touchdown was a 76 yard touchdown run off of a scramble that iced the game. For many, this is the stark difference between the two quarterbacks.

RGIII has completed nearly 70% of his passes in his rookie season.

RGIII has completed nearly 70% of his passes in his rookie season.

However upon further review of Griffin III’s passing statistics (205 of 304 for 2,497 yards 13TDs and 4 ints), you notice that he’s completing 67.4% of his passes and has a 1.3% interception ratio. At the moment his passing percentage is higher than Tom Brady’s 65% and has a lower interception ratio than Aaron Rodgers at 1.7%. When he has gone back to pass, he’s made plays from the pocket  just like his first TD to Pierre Garcon against the Saints in week 1. Yet his detractors aren’t giving him credit for this. Sure he has made some spectacular plays on the run but his nerve with the clock winding down is something he displayed even back at Baylor.

In the aforementioned game with Minnesota, the Vikings had just scored to come within a touchdown and had the momentum. On second down, the pocket broke down and Griffin III scrambled for the first down before a downfield block opened it up for him to take it to the house. A very improptu play. The following week, his Redskins faced a fourth and 10 play with less than 4 minutes to go. After a scramble and throw for the first down, he calmly led the Redskins for what looked like a game winning drive. Once at the 30, RGIII perfectly read a Giants blitz and feathered a pass to Santana Moss who had adjusted and run a corner route. With less than 1:30 to go in the game it appeared to be the game winner. However Eli Manning’s 77 yarder to Victor Cruz won it for New York 27-23 on the next play, but Griffin had done his part.

Speaking of doing their part…

Luck runs for yardage against the Buffalo in last week's 20-13 over the Bills.

Luck runs for yardage against the Buffalo in last week’s 20-13 over the Bills.

Wasn’t the Indianapolis Colts supposed to struggle under the weight of a rookie coach and quarterback?? Now consider the fact that Head Coach Chuck Pagano has missed the last four games. How much leadership has Luck had to display as a rookie?? Might be the most in NFL history when you really give it some serious thought. The reality is with his being drafted to replace Peyton Manning, he has two quarterbacks to be compared to…so let’s start with the obvious: Luck v. Peyton Manning.

If you look at what Luck has had to endure as a rookie versus Peyton, keep in mind Manning had Jim Mora who was in his second stint as a successful NFL Head Coach, although was in his first year with Indianapolis. The steadying hand of a coach who had been there before along with future Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, kept Manning from feeling the weight of the franchise on him. He also had a young dynamic Marvin Harrison at wideout where now the top wideout is an elder version of Reggie Wayne.

Wayne has helped ease Luck into the mix like Marshall and Harrison did for Manning. Unfortrunately this year’s Colts are 17th in rushing which has put the onus back on Luck and the passing attack. This year’s statline isn’t that bad where Luck’s completed 56.8% of his passes, completing 255 of 449 for 3,205 yards 13 TDs along with 13 interceptions. Yet let’s ask the question: With this year’s mediocre running attack (Ballard 427 yds / Donald Brown 404 yds) how often has Luck had to throw into the teeth of defenses?? Seriously?? Do you realize Colt running backs have combined for just one touchdown this year??

Before we give you Luck’s rushing totals, remember Peyton Manning had Marshall Faulk come within 92 receiving yards of joining Roger Craig as the second 1000/1000 yard running back. Faulk ran for 1,319 yards 6TDs while catching 86 passes for 902 yards and another 6 scores. With that help Peyton Manning completed 56.7% of his passes, 3,739 yards, 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. So with less, Luck has done more than his predecessor’s rookie season. Especially when you factor the 2012 Colts record of 7-4 vs. the 1998 Colts going 3-13.

302853-andrew-luckSo where one school of thought doesn’t give RGIII his due as a passer, Luck’s detractors overlook the fact he’s rushed 41 times for 183 yards and a team leading 5 touchdowns. That only gives him one less rushing touchdown than the 6 RGIII has for the Redskins. However RGIII has run twice as often with 100 attempts for 642 yards and is just off pace from a 1,000 yard season. Yet Luck isn’t glued to the passing pocket and can run when he needs to.

In RGIII’s rookie year he’s had the benefit of a two time Super Bowl winning coach (Mike Shanahan) and a veteran laden squad as compared to the Colts, who are rebuilding on the run. The Washington Redskins are 5-6 and have a two game home winning streak. They are much better than they have been over the last decade or so and have a promising future thanks to their rookie quarterback. Yet when you look on the other side of the conference ledger at the 7-4 Colts, Luck has made that team relevant faster than our CEO originally thought, and it’s hard to believe how hope with his play and future has drowned out the despair over Manning’s departure.

Each have an edge over the other whether we’re talking stats or wins and playoff position. You thought we were going to conclude this argument?? We just want to pour gas on the fire. Much like Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney… their followers aren’t going to be swayed. The beauty of this one is that each has gone to the other conference and a possible Super Bowl matchup between the two could happen.

How do we know which veterans right now are looking at Washington and Indianapolis as future free agent destinations because of these two?? What happens if somehow the Colts draft Le’Veon Bell, RB from Michigan State or Kenjon Barner RB from Oregon?? Think that would pull up the defense and allow Luck some passing room?? What happens if the Redskins draft Baylor wideout Terrance Williams (1,693 yds/ 12TDs) to reunite with RGIII and this year’s draftee Leonard Hankerson?? How much more potent will the Redskins be??

Possible Super Bowl L matchup??Time will tell...

Possible Super Bowl L matchup?? Time will tell…

 In Washington and Indianapolis, the future is bright!! So the question is: Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck?? The choice is yours…

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NFL Week 13: Playoffs and Changing Quarterbacks

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Colin Kaepernick basking in the afterglow of Monday night’s win over Chicago.

The San Francisco 49ers are playing russian roulette with their current quarterback situation. Alex Smith has earned his starting role and with his recent injury, allowed 2nd QB Colin Kaepernick some much needed playing time. First he takes down Chicago on Monday night 32-7, and now he plays well in his first start when Smith has been healthy, winning 31-21 in New Orleans. Yet how great a chance does this team fare changing quarterbacks so late in the year?? The history of the NFL is littered with losing lottery tickets by teams rolling the dice with the quarterback position heading into the playoffs. Why should the 49ers be any different?? The Chancellor expects disaster… how did those other teams fare??

Once upon a time there was a team called the New York Jets. It was 1986 and the team started 10-1 and were the best team in the AFC. However there was a disturbing 45-3 loss to the Miami Dolphins on a Monday night, which sapped their confidence and sent them into a tail-spin. After losing their last five, Head Coach Joe Walton figured to make a coaching change at quarterback as they headed into the ’86 playoffs. They replaced Ken O’Brien with Pat Ryan…how did they fare?? Well they beat the Kansas City Chiefs in a wildcard game 35-15 but fell in double overtime to the Cleveland Browns 23-20.

In that game, the Jets quarterback was knocked out and Ken O’Brien had to come back in. Neither played well on the road and were sacked an NFL playoff record NINE times in that game. Are you sure you don’t want continuity going into the playoffs Jim Harbaugh?? Well the Jets fell on the road…had they played at home they would have been in better shape, right??

Then you had the defending champion Chicago Bears in 1986. Jim McMahon was slammed to the turf by Green Bay Packer Charles Martin and lost for the season. Now the Bears had Steve Fuller and Mike Tomczak who were there for the 1985 season and it was Fuller who brought Mike Ditka his first playoff win in 1984 over the Washington Redskins 23-19. As the 1986 season was dwindling down, Iron Mike decided to sign Doug Flutie, who hadn’t played NFL football yet. With a 14-2 team and a record setting defense (187 points allowed) the team had won close games yet Ditka decided to go with the “hot hand” and go into the playoffs with a quarterback with 2 prior NFL starts.

  • Nevermind the team was on a 7 game winning streak.
  • Nevermind Flutie was 4th on the team in completion percentage (50.1%)
  • Nevermind the Bears defense hadn’t given up 2TDs in a game in 10 weeks.
  • Nevermind the fact you had the #1 rushing offense in the league and Walter Payton still a 1,000 yard rusher (1,336)

The Bears were at home and had to face an inferior team in the 1986 Washington Redskins with first time playoff starter Jay Schroeder. One significant difference though is Jay was the starter for the entire season and had his first win in the wildcard over Los Angeles…19-7. In the divisional round Jay Schroeder in his 18th start in 1986 was pitted against Doug Flutie in his 3rd. So what happened?? Dexter Manley and 6ft 5 inch Charles Mann batted down 4 of his passes and chased him all over Soldier Field. Flutie went for 11 of 31 for 134 yards, 1TD but 2 big interceptions on his side of the 50. Just enough for the Redskins to pull off the upset 27-13 and end the Bears chance to go back to back. Thirty five percent was all Flutie could complete at home without crowd noise??

Keep in mind Redskin defensive co-ordinator Richie Petitbon had come up with a confusing set of alignments Flutie wasn’t prepared for. In a playoff game on the fly, an inexperienced quarterback can be unnerved in the NFL playoffs and there are hundreds of lessons where it’s been done. We, at Taylor Blitz Times showcased one in Fritz Shurmur’s Zone Blitz Eagle Defense that unnerved Randall Cunningham and confounded quarterbacks in the 1989 playoffs. Coach Harbaugh, are you sure you want to have Kaepernick in game 6 or 7 face a confusing Giants or Falcons defense?? It takes much more than a few games to get up to NFL game speed…then another to get to NFL playoff speed. What can a quarterback thrown off his game do in a playoff even if he has a strong defense to bail him out?? The defense should keep them in a close game… will he have enough time to bail his team out in a one and done scenario like the NFL playoffs??

Enter Doug Flutie again…

The year was 1999 and the Buffalo Bills fielded the #1 defense in all of pro football. Going into the last game of the season, Bills brass had been in Head Coach Wade Phillips ear about playing Rob Johnson. He had been an expensive free agent in the offseason, whom Flutie beat out during the year, yet brass wanted to see what they had in Johnson. So the finale would have the Bills at home against the Indianapolis Colts who were also resting their starters for the post season. Johnson had a good game as the Bills won 31-6, prompting the pressure to play Johnson in the upcoming playoffs.  For the second time in NFL history, a team replaced it’s starter going into the playoffs without injury forcing the decision. So what happened??

The 1999 AFC Wildcard tilt had the Bill travel to face the Tennessee Titans and super rookie Jevon Kearse. In a defensive struggle the momentum of the game turned when a punt put Buffalo near their own 10 yard line. Wouldn’t you know Jevon “The Freak” Kearse chased and sacked Rob Johnson for the first score of the game. The ensuing short kick put the Titans in Bills territory where they scored to take control 9-0. Forever leaving Bills fans wondering if Kearse would have caught the elusive Flutie, who by now had been a Bills starter for the better part of two years at this point.

Nevertheless Rob Johnson had a dismal day as he tried to adjust to a blitzing Titan defense and the speed of NFL playoff football. It took until the Bills final do-or-die drive where he completed 5 passes to get Buffalo in range to kick a field goal for a subsequent 16-15 lead with :12 to go. Then came the short kick that led to The Music City Miracle, Kevin Dyson’s return of a lateral from Frank Wycheck. Although the Bills #1 defense led by Bruce Smith’s 2.5 sacks in his last game as a Buffalo Bill had held the Titans in check, it was offset by the 6 sacks Tennessee engineered. Furthermore, Johnson was anemic in the game going 10 for 22 and 131 yards in the game. Yes that includes the five completions on the final drive.

Leading to the inevitable question: Had Flutie been able to elude Kearse and that first safety would the Bills have gained the upper hand with their playoff experience?? Tennessee was in it’s first playoff game. Then the other question was: Had the safety not taken place and Buffalo was up 16-13 instead of 16-15, would the Bills have kicked the ball deep instead of overcoaching with a short kick??

Nevertheless, in the past the defense did what they could to keep the score down. It almost worked for Rob Johnson that day, will it for Colin Kaepernick?? Everyone of Alex Smith’s detractors say he’s the beneficiary of a great defense. Well in a 31-21 win over the Saints which included 2 defensive touchdowns by Ahmad Brooks and Donte Whitner respectively, isn’t that what was provided for Kaepernick?? Wasn’t that the same in Monday night’s game against Chicago??

Do you realize for the season Alex Smith has a better completion percentage than Colin Kaepernick?? For the season including Sunday’s game with the Saints, Smith has connected on 70% of his passes for 13TDs and 5 interceptions versus Kaepernick’s 64% for 3TDs and 1 interception. Even the game Sunday, Colin was only 16 for 25 for 231 yards, 1TD and 1 pick and was bailed out by those two defensive touchdowns.

Sure he brings a missing element to the table with his mobility but you now give up the seasoning of a quarterback who went through last year’s playoffs. Take that back, he excelled in last year’s playoffs. First he came of age by outdueling Drew Brees in the divsional round… Remember his 24 of 42 for 299 yards, 3TDs and no interceptions which included a game winning rocket to Vernon Davis. Then in an NFC Championship overtime loss to the Giants, he never threw the ball up with pedestrian receivers covered tightly by New York. This kept them in the game and without the late game special teams disasters could have played in Super Bowl XLVI.

So now if you decide to go with Kaepernick, you’re replacing playoff experience for?? You tell me… If San Francisco goes with a late season quarterback switch, not to be a nay-sayer, but NFL history tells us this is a playoff disaster waiting to happen. Sure there was the Tom Brady year of 2001 but he started in week 3. Then you have the 1990 – Jeff Hostetler scenario replacing an injured Phil Simms in week 14, yet he’d been with the Giants for 7 years and had some experience.

Coach Harbaugh, it would be in your best interest to approach this in the offseason. No matter what pressure you’re getting from brass to put in the high draft pick. Once upon a time, Alex Smith  was a 1st rounder for you compared to Kaepernick’s 2nd round selection. A possible visit to Super Bowl XLVII could hinge on this decision. Don’t wake up in a 17-13 slugfest in the playoffs against the Giants and need a touchdown with a first time signal caller under center. With a possible Super Bowl win you can get up to 6-7 years extended on your contract. Another playoff loss, no one, not even the brass aiding in this decision will give you a mulligan for a playoff loss with a first time quarterback. Take heed…you can go with the flavor of the month but realize they don’t make history.

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