2011 NFC Championship Preview; Eli Manning “The Silent Killer”

George Halas Trophy: Awarded to the NFC Champion

As the NFL train heads for the NFC Championship, one passenger looks strangely familiar to us. We’ve seen him before and haven’t really given him his due as how great he’s actually becoming. Do you realize thanks to last week; Eli Manning is the only quarterback in NFL history to defeat two different teams with 15 regular season wins?? He was the quarterback of the Super Bowl XLII upset of the 16-0 New England Patriots, and now conquered the 15-1 Packers last week in Lambeau. Is it time we consider him great?? We know…get up off the floor and consider this; he has more signature playoff wins than his celebrated brother Peyton. In fact he’s the tougher quarterback between the two.

Stop and think of the signature games Eli has in his back pocket. Everyone remembers the run to the Super Bowl in 2007 especially the Dallas Cowboys. Remember that group?? An emerging Tony Romo and Terrell Owens sparkled as they ran to an NFC best 13-3 record and the championship of the Eastern Division. Then in a frigid Lambeau Field took down the 13-3 Green Bay in Brett Favre’s last game as a Packer. The most startling fact were these two games and the Super Bowl that year were all of these teams beat Eli and the Giants in their first meeting. Something the 49ers should take solace in since they defeated Manning’s Giants 27-20 in November.

Last weekend propelled Alex Smith into a higher echelon of quarterbacks, yet where did the 37-20 defeat of the Packers propel Eli?? We have to remember he is already a Super Bowl winning quarterback although the sporting press doesn’t cover him like one. He isn’t coddled like his brother when it comes to his short comings. Think about it for a second…. Had Eli Manning thrown a 4th quarter interception to seal his team’s fate in a Super Bowl you would never hear the end of it. We hardly hear of his triumph in Super Bowl XLII, he’s treated like a supporting actor to the upset itself or even David Tyree’s helmet catch. Neither of which could have taken place without Eli’s heroics. If you can remember Eli had to break free of two linemen and scrambled before throwing that famous pass to Tyree.

The silent killer

With a win this week, Manning will have his 7th playoff win and second Super Bowl appearance. He has a 5-3 record in the playoffs and get this he’s 5-1 away from home in the playoffs including the Super Bowl, for his career. Contrast that against Peyton’s 3-6 record away from home in the playoffs, which includes a 41-0 devastating loss to the New York Jets. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200301040nyj.htm Understand Eli doesn’t have a lopsided postseason loss to that degree on his resume’. It also needs to be reiterated he just missed becoming the 4th quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards this year with 4,933, while throwing for 29TDs to just 16 interceptions. You’re starting to get the feeling that he will win this road game and advance to his second Super Bowl.

No one even comes close to his road post season record. He’s quiet and tremendously unassuming off the field. Yet it’s at this moment we have to anoint him to that of a great quarterback on the precipice of his second Super Bowl. You’d think that the coddling the media has given his brother would have rubbed off on him. That it hasn’t has given him a thicker skin and stronger resolve. The same as being a younger brother getting beat up by his older brother’s Peyton and Cooper.

If Aaron Rodgers ascended to greatness with last year’s postseason, where will that leave Eli if he’s able to pull it off for a second time??  An NFC showdown against the formidable (13-3) 49ers awaits. Yet nothing has rattled a quarterback who has bested 4 teams with that same record or better for his postseason career. Before this championship he ascended to becoming a great quarterback with the win over the Green Bay Packers. With a win in San Francisco he’ll cement it. Can he pull it off?? We’re not betting against the “silent killer”.

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NFC Championship Preview

Chicago Bears hosting the Green Bay Packers for the right to go to the Super Bowl.  If images of Vince Lombardi and George Halas aren’t coming to mind we may need to introduce you to table tennis as a favorite sport.  This is the essence of pro football with the backdrop of history, weather, most hated rival playing for the conference crown; how can this get any better?  It can’t, plain and simple.  One of the beautiful points to this championship for affecionados like me is to remind younger fans of the super rich heritage of the NFL.  No the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, nor San Francisco 49ers have the most championships in NFL history, that distinction belongs to these two teams.  The fact that fans have gone their entire lifetimes without seeing these two play with stakes this high makes this game special.  I know, I know…Jef get to the game at hand..

When we take a look at Aaron Rodgers what do you see?  Easily football’s finest young quarterback who is ascending to a place that was once reserved for only Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in most circles. Last weeks 31 of 36 for 366 yards and 3TDs in a 48-21 win over Atlanta was his calling card to greatness. He didn’t stand in the pocket and give a Joe Montana performance, he was flushed from the pocket on numerous occasions and completed passes while being chased from the pocket that realistically the defense should have been able to make a few stops.  There were throws that defied logic and its time to talk about Rodgers on the move as one of the best in the business.  His feet are always ready to deliver the football which is key to his game.  So in two playoff games Rodgers has led the Packers to 48 and 45 (last year’s loss to the Cardinals) point totals. Yikes, what will he look like in a year or two?

Over this season has there been a team that has evolved on offense more than the Chicago Bears?  Coming into the season I thought the marriage of Cutler and Mike Martz’s system would be able to get the most of Jay’s long ball arm.  They just had to rope the penchant for Martz to pass too often trying to show off his genius that nearly got Kurt Warner killed when he coached the Rams.  Evidenced by the dismal 9 sacks in the first half performance against the Giants and Cutler didn’t make it back for the second half.  Yet Lovie Smith and Martz have roped in the offense and over the second half of the season ran the ball more than they passed it.  Last week’s playoff game against Seattle, the running attack was supplemented with a variety of screens to further slow the pass rush.  Mike Martz can be a brilliant play caller.

Aaron Rodgers surveying the Bears defense

Jay Cutler has been the beneficiary of this more balanced play calling and has matured amidst detractors who refuse to notice. He’s never played a playoff game how will he perform? Hmm…play action down the middle for a 58 yard touchdown to Greg Olsen on his first pass attempt.  The last time the NFL saw that happen in a playoff game take a guess who was calling the plays?  Mike Martz when Kurt Warner hit Isaac Bruce for a 77 yarder td on the Rams first play in the ’99 divisonal tilt against Minnesota.  That withstanding, Cutler played under control threw for 2TDs in the game and ran for 2 more becoming the first QB since Otto Graham in 1955.  However a closer look and we saw a confident more determined quarterback, one who put his head down and smashed into the endzone on one run, and forcefully ran for a 4th and 1 near the goalline to set up the Bears 2nd TD.  This was not the same Cutler we saw on that fateful Monday Night against the Giants ducking for cover and unsure of himself.  He’s grown in stature as a pro quarterback over the second half of this season.    Advantage Packers in quarterbacking in this game…

The team that establishes the run best will take control of this football game.  The Packers have found a new workhorse in these playoffs with rookie James Starks.  However this is somewhat overblown.  He rushed 25 times for 66 yards for a paltry  2.6 yds avg.  against Atlanta in which the Packers put up 48 points. This is the issue when dealing with a rookie.  Do I believe in his performance against Philadelphia in the wildcard or this latest outting?  Enter Matt Forte for Chicago, he only rushed 25 times for 80 yards, a slightly better 3.2 yds avg. v. Seattle, yet he supplemented this with 3 receptions for 54 yards more.  Seeing that we have two highly ranked defenses in this game one of these offenses has to give.  Advantage Bears slightly…Martz needs to slip Forte on screens at the right time to slow down a certain Mr. Matthews to aid his passing attack.

Alright its cold out and we have football’s #5 and #9 ranked defenses in the Packers and Bears respectively.  Both stout against the run. Each with defensive stalwarts rushing the passer, the aforementioned Clay Matthews and a one Mr. Julius Peppers. The Packers have the better secondary in Charles Woodson and Tremond Williams, who just played his way onto the Pro Bowl roster with his performance last week.  Third cornerback, rookie Sam Shields from Miami, is coming on.  The Packers must get in front and make the Bears pass into their secondary.  The Bears have the better front seven and perhaps the best in football.  Julius Peppers tilts the field and this matchup in the Bears favor.  In their prior meeting at Soldier Field, the Packers had four penalties attributed to trying to slow down the athletic Peppers.  His presence takes attention away from a lethal Urlacher and Lance Briggs.  Add to that an awakening Tommie Harris and Idonijie #71 will be single blocked on the side away from Peppers.  Look for Idonijie and Peppers to corral Rodgers where Atlanta could not.  Advantage Chicago based on crowd noise and front seven strength across the board.

Which leads to special teams.  Sigh, do I really have to tell you about history’s finest ever kick returner Devin Hester from Miami? Of course its easy to say that he did return a punt for a touchdown in the Soldier Field meeting between these two teams, but its deeper, systemic if you will.  Thanks to Peppers and company, the Bears are the fifth best team in not allowing their opponent to convert on 3rd down at 35%. When opponents are stopped inside their own 40 yard line, teams can’t ask their punter to punt out of bounds in fear of a shanked kick, giving the Bears even better field position.  They are forced to kick it to Hester in that instance and here in late January amidst swirling winds he will get several shots in this game.  Advantage Bears.

For the Packers to win Aaron Rodgers and that superb receiving corps have to have a game like they did in Atlanta and Arizona last year to win.  The problem is those were heremetic, antiseptic dome games, not windy Soldier Field in late January.  The Bears want to put bruises on the body and the psyche of Rodgers.  The Bears should play to the strength of their defense and special teams while taking calculated shots with Cutler’s arm when they get near 50 yard line.

Prediction 2010 NFC Champion Chicago Bears  23-16