2013 AFC North Predictions

Admittedly we are a tad late on our NFL divisional predictions. On the eve of the biggest AFC North game for the Cincinnati Bengals for quite sometime, we have to go on record for how we think the AFC North will go. If you have followed our previews up to this time, Taylor Blitz was the first of the national pundits that had the Cincinnati Bengals going to the AFC Championship Game in a few months. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2013/04/16/2013-cincinnati-bengals-team-preview-slowly-building-a-winner/ That article was produced on April 16th, so we are talking before the unfortunate events with the Patriots and Aaron Hernandez. Before the suspension of Von Miller out in Denver. Right now the Cincinnati Bengals have a tremendous amount going for them, including returning the NFL’s 6th ranked defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals should be the best of the AFC North in 2013.

The Cincinnati Bengals should be the best of the AFC North in 2013.

2013 AFC North Predictions

1. Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 ##

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

3. Baltimore Ravens 7-9

4. Cleveland Browns 6-10

The only team to make it to the playoffs from this division this year are the Bengals. What we do know is Cleveland has improved on offense, if we’re talking about the preseason. They struggled against a rebuilding Ravens team that gave up an NFL record 7 touchdown passes to Peyton Manning in week 1. The Browns actually had scouts at the Texas A&M / Alabama game to scout Johnny Manziel who threw 5 touchdowns and scored 42 against the number one team in the nation.  Current QB Brandon Weeden has 14 more games to prove he is the future or his job is gone next off-season.

The Steelers are in the middle of a rebuilding year and need to indoctrinate several young players in the Pittsburgh mold.  Understand this record was before they lost signal callers Maurkice Pouncey, Center, and inside linebacker Larry Foote to season ending injuries. They may fall further than 9-7 but the rest of the division might be too weak to take advantage.

Which brings us to tonight. Former NFL commissioner Bert Bell coined the phrase “On any given Sunday” back in the 1950’s. Meaning that at any time a lessor team can take down one of the NFL heavies.  It’s amazing how that has been through the years. Yet one of the items we say around here is every champion has building blocks to their championship mettle. One mission for the Cincinnati Bengals tonight is to prove to the Steelers, NFL fans, teams and most importantly to themselves that they are the team that rules the AFC North. Nevermind their loss in week 1 it starts tonight.  That psychological building block to this team’s psyche begins in a few hours.  Their mission, should they choose to accept it….

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2013 AFC North Predictions

Now the season is off to a rollicking start, it’s time to finish up on our predictions for the course of the 2013 NFL season. One division that is going to see turnover at the top is the AFC North. It was long thought the Baltimore Ravens wouldn’t be the defense we had come to know with Ray Lewis, but to allow 7 touchdowns to Peyton Mannning?? Uh oh… might take some time for that defense to jell this season if they do at all. So who will win the AFC North and interrupt the hold at the top dominated by Pittsburgh and Baltimore the last 13 years??

The Cincinnati Bengals should be the best of the AFC North in 2013.

The Cincinnati Bengals should be the best of the AFC North in 2013.

2013 AFC North Predictions

1. Cincinnati Bengals 12-4 ##

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

3. Cleveland Browns 7-9

4. Baltimore Ravens 6-10

The last two years have been a dress rehearsal for the Bengals in the NFL playoffs. This year they will do some serious damage as a division winner. They return the 6th best defense in the NFL before you factor in the addition of James Harrison. They were second in the NFL with 52 sacks, 4th in touchdown passes allowed with 16 and added players to bolster both those numbers. Andy Dalton, in year 3, knows his team and this division and will know his way around the NFL playoffs as well.

The Steelers are in a short rebuilding phase and will have a few growing pains. However when you return with the #1 defense in pro football, you will be in a lot of games. The only issue is they don’t force turnovers like they used to. We also have to see how Mike Wallace’s absence holds back the passing game. With that defense and LeVeon Bell they will sneak close to the playoffs but will have to wait until 2014 to showcase what they can do.

The Browns are a much improved team but still can’t compete at the top of this division. Trent Richardson will dominate this year where last year he showed some flashes. They really looked good in the preseason but we have to see how they respond when real bullets start flying.

As for the Baltimore Ravens….sigh. We attended their funeral last Thursday when Peyton Manning baptized them with 7 touchdown passes. They were just caught in a vice when the offense went flat early in the third quarter. Yet the lack of leadership showed up when they couldn’t stem the tide. A season of growing pains awaits the Super Bowl champs.

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2013 Cincinnati Bengals Team Preview – Slowly Building A Winner

Pau Brown Stadium

Pau Brown Stadium

Over the last two years the Cincinnati Bengals have charged into the NFL playoffs. It’s the first time they have gone in back to back years since 1982, the year after their appearance in Super Bowl XVI. In these recent years, they fell to the Houston Texans in the wildcard round of the playoffs. In 2011 they fell 31-10, however last year they lost a tightly contested contest 19-13. This year many pundits are calling the Houston Texans a Super Bowl favorite. If the Bengals have made strides to catch the Texans what does that make them??

If they were to meet the Texans for a third straight time in the playoffs, you do realize the odds are on the Bengals side…correct?? Over the course of NFL history, there are few teams that have won 3 in a row against an opponent in a five year period in the playoffs. Since 1950, only 4 times out of 11 had a team won all three times. Remember how the Indianapolis Colts vanquished playoff nemesis New England on their way to the Super Bowl XLI title?? How about when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers turned the tables on Philadelphia in the 2002 NFC Championship on their way to the Super Bowl XXXVIII title?? What are we getting at here?? Keep reading

Third year pro has led the Bengals to the playoffs in back to back years.

Third year pro has led the Bengals to the playoffs in back to back years.

Quarterback: Well coming off a sophomore slump is Andy Dal…wait…what sophomore slump?? Dalton is entering his third year where he improved on his rookie numbers in completion percentage (62.3% v. 58.1%), yards (3,669 v. 3,398) and touchdowns (28 v. 20). Now don’t forget he made the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2011. Now that the Bengals have opened up the playbook further for a growing quarterback, he did suffer a few more interceptions (16 v. 13) and sacks (46 v. 24) than the year before. However the arc is going up on this kid at the exact same time the division is losing Raven Safety Ed Reed, and he’ll face 32 year old Safeties in Troy Palamalu along with a 34 year old Ryan Clark when he faces the Steelers. If their healthy.

He has gained NFL playoff experience over these last two years and you have to ask yourself; Is this the year he can break through and win a playoff game?? He has to continue his maturation for this to happen. Last year he didn’t look good in the wild card loss to the Texans. He was 14 of 30 for only 127 yards and 1 interception. He was a little unnerved by the crowd noise in Houston. He was apprehensive in that game and had to live with that the whole off-season.

He hasn’t missed a game in his brief career. At 6-2 215lbs, he is a big strong quarterback. He isn’t a threat to run like some of his contemporaries who have dazzled in The Pistol, however he did run for 4TDs last year. He isn’t afflicted by the Bengals losing ways of the past and has helped the team improve from 9-7 in 2011 to 10-6 in 2012. Only an injury seems to be all that could derail further development. Dalton is no fluke and gives the Bengals a fighting chance and ranks as a playoff caliber quarterback.

Offensive Backfield: This is where the Bengals should use a draft pick in a couple of weeks. Last year the Bengals let go of Cedric Benson and former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 1,097 yards and 6TDs. He is a steady but not spectacular player. Yet just like Benson, they keep grabbing running backs off the scrap heap. To take the next step they need to put a play maker at this position instead of a stop-gap performer. With all the SEC picks in the last few years, would they take Eddie Lacy out of Alabama?

http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000122777/RB-Green-Ellis-29-yd-run

The time is now to plug in a viable rookie running back with Green-Ellis still in the fold. He’s only 27 and has a few years left in him. Bengals brass has also re-signed Cedric Peerman who had a better average than Green-Ellis (4.7 yard avg v. 3.9 yard avg) but there had to be a reason why they named Green-Ellis a starter over him. It couldn’t have been pass protection with the team giving up so many sacks. Cincinnati needs a runner not a ball carrier to push the envelope. The league average for yardage per rush is always around 4.0 and that’s all they can get with these players. With that in mind the Bengals can only be average at the position. Maybe Green-Ellis in his second year with the team can be that guy. We’ll wait and see.

AJ Green is the best young receiver in the AFC, period.

AJ Green is the best young receiver in the AFC, period.

Receivers: The other component to the equation why the Bengals are rising to prominence has been the play of AJ Green and TE Jermaine  Gresham. Both are coming off back to back Pro Bowl seasons even though they are so young. In only his second season, Green caught 97 passes for 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns. Do you realize he caught 32 more passes than his rookie year? He improved in all statistical categories. The Bengals have to develop or draft a complement to him so teams, like the Texans in last year’s playoffs, can’t roll coverage to his side.

Green has been able to blossom due to safeties having to pay attention to Gresham in the middle. At 6’5 261lbs, he is too much man for most safeties and linebackers struggle with his speed. He’s the AFC version of Vernon Davis just not as fast. Last year he had 64 receptions for 737 yards and 5 TDs. Career highs in catches and yardage. If the Bengals weren’t in so many spread formations, he would be a 1,000 yard performer. Do you realize he’s only going into his 4th season?? These two alone make the receiving corps. playoff caliber. Develop or draft another receiver and they will be Super Bowl quality.

Offensive Line: This is another area where the Bengals should look on draft day to improve team fortunes. Last year the Bengals rushed for 1,745 yards and 11 TDs. Very middle of the pack numbers in terms of production. Keep in mind they allowed 46 sacks which ranked 26th in the league. Now is not the time for RT Andre Smith to play hardball in contract negotiations. If they lose him they may have to draft a tackle in the first round. When rushing to the strong side last year, the Bengals were thrown for losses 10 times. While in obvious power situations (3rd /4th and 2 or goal line) they converted on 76% of their attempts. All factors indicate he will re-sign.

Left Tackle Andrew Whitworth just came off his first Pro Bowl and is going into his 8th season. Where he didn’t have to face a James Harrison in Pittsburgh last year, he’ll face division new comer Elvis Dumervil in Baltimore.  Elvis did beat him for a sack in last year’s 31-23 loss to the Broncos. This will be his nemesis when they face the Ravens. However up the middle is where the running game is most solid and should improve with Guards Kevin Zeitler and Clint Boling who will be 23 and 24 respectively. This group needs to improve in their pass protection and right now they are just average.

Geno Atkins leads the Bengals beastly pass rush.

Geno Atkins leads the Bengals beastly pass rush.

Defensive Line: One of the best defenses in the NFL is strongest right on the defensive front with DT/NT Geno Atkins and DE Michael Johnson. Atkins is only going into his fourth year and has been to the Pro Bowl two straight years. Last year he was 5th on the team in tackles with 54, had 12 1/2 sacks, and four forced fumbles while being voted All Pro. Johnson was right behind him with 52 tackles, 11 1/2 sacks as the team was 2nd in sacks with 52. Wallace Gilberry and Carlos Dunlap gave them 4 linemen with at least 6 sacks. This is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Linebackers: The surprising play of free agent rookie Vontaze Burfict gave the team a faster look on defense than in years prior. In only 14 starts, he led the team with 127 total tackles and had 1 sack. Rey Maualuga was right behind him with 122 stops and another sack. They just need to force more turnovers by interception or fumbles to be a great group.  If they can get a third blood thirsty linebacker behind that pass rush..watch out! Still a playoff caliber group with Manny Lawson still on board. Former Steeler James Harrison is close to a deal also. To add to the pass rush they already have??

Secondary: Did you know the Bengals were ranked 7th in the NFL against the pass and was 4th in passing touchdowns allowed  with 16?? They were right there with Atlanta (14), Seattle (15), and Baltimore (15) respectively. You’ll note that one won the Super Bowl and the other two battled to make the NFC Championship Game. However this group hasn’t lost anyone like the Ravens losing Ed Reed or the Falcons losing CB Brent Grimes to the Dolphins.

Defensive Co-Ordinator Mike Zimmer gets the most out of a hodge podge veteran laden group that doesn’t give up the big play. Leon Hall (37 tackles / 2 ints) is solid on one corner where they may need to look for Terrence Newman’s ( 73 tackles / 2 ints) replacement on the other side. He’s still playing well but will be 35 when the season starts. Adam “PacMan” Jones is there to lend support as is Nate Clements formerly of the Bills and Niners. Clements made the switch to safety for 9 games last season yet may have to mold a young safety if the Bengals can draft one. Another season like last year and Reggie Nelson will be in the Pro Bowl. He was 3rd on the team in tackles with 83, defensed 9 passes, and had 3 picks. This group is Super Bowl caliber based on their collective production.

Vontaze Burfict is another reason the Bengals are going to make a move in 2013.

Vontaze Burfict is another reason the Bengals are going to make a move in 2013.

Overview: This is as solid a team that the AFC has to offer. Their greatest asset this year is the continuity in coaches and player personnel. Then you look at the relative youth of all the key positions with Dalton, AJ Green, Vontaze Burfict, and Geno Atkins. Now The Chancellor has had his eye on this defense for some time now. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2011/11/01/week-8-afc-north-protecting-the-nfl-republic/ This team has an arc that is still going up. They were 7th in defense in 2011 and improved to 6th last year. This is no fluke.

If you look at their division record, in 2011 it was 2-4 which improved to 3-3 in 2012. They finished 10-6 which was the identical record of the Super Bowl Champion Ravens. Yet look at all the upheaval of personnel in both Baltimore and Pittsburgh this offseason. Now think of the hole Elvis Dumervil left in the Broncos defense. Who has a better defense than this football team??  The Bengals can finally concentrate on luxuries in the draft without any obvious weaknesses. Having adjusted to playing near the league’s elite, this young team will crash the playoffs and might make it to Super Bowl XLVIII. Don’t forget the first cold weather Super Bowl had the Bengals in the 16th edition. They will at least make it to the AFC Championship Game. You heard it here first.

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Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Wild Card Week: Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

cincinnati-bengals5We made it through the regular season and we’re off to start the race for Super Bowl XLVII!! Our first match-up is a rematch from last year’s playoffs between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans. Battle lines for this game start right there… the Bengals have been here before and it bodes well for them. Last year was a surprise where this year they expected to be here.

The first thing that jumps out is the Bengals and Texans are #6 & #7 in defense. Although JJ Watt has garnered most of the publicity, it’s the Bengals who are 3rd in sacks with 50. This will travel well with them since they gain them in a group. Watt with his 20 1/2 hasn’t helped that team over the last four weeks.

With the Bengals you have to pick your poison and either double Geno Atkins 12 1/2 sacks or Michael Johnson’s 11 1/2. Behind all that pressure is surprise rookie LB Vontaze Burfict (128 tackles) and Ray Maualuga (122 tackles) where they get to set their sites on Arian Foster. Burfict has proven to be a playmaker and Houston might try to take advantage of him with misdirection plays. Each team ranks in the 20’s against the run and for the Bengals, they have to stop Foster who rushed for 1,424 yards and 15 touchdowns this year. However he has only 1, 100 yard day in his last four outings.

The big thing that jumps out is the Houston Texans are not playing confident and peaked too early. Here at Taylor Blitz Times we asked if the Texans had enough playmakers to make it to New Orleans. In this late season slide there were no playmakers to turn any of these games around when they were close and we think that is what will happen in this one. The Bengals have been playing playoff football for two months now. They were chasing the Ravens, passed the Steelers and have won 7 of 8 just to make the playoffs. Matt Schaub is going to  play well but only if they’re ahead. These last few weeks you can see he presses if behind. Andre Johnson is still a top receiver but he’s no longer the complete package that could grab possession balls and beat you deep. The Bengals have several veteran cornerbacks in Terrance Newman, Nate Clements, “PacMan” Jones, and Leon Hall can cover the Texans. Do you realize they have defensed 35 passes between the four of them?? Do you realize combined with the 50 sacks, they have given up 20 points or less in 8 straight games??

At this point of the season, you are what you are and with that we are taking the Bengals over the Texans. Watch for Ben Jarvus Green Ellis to keep the pressure off of Andy Dalton. Will he get 100?? He’ll come close… Do you realize the Texans are 26th against the run?? Time for the Bengals to reverse they’re playoff history.

 

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Wild Card Week: Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

Welcome to the post season and here are two Cinderella stories meeting during NFL Wild Card week. Who would have thought that after losing Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer, Marvin Lewis would have his Cincinnati Bengals in the playoffs?? Very few… Now they have the chance to win a playoff game which is something they didn’t accomplish with Palmer or Chad. He comes in with a growing rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton and the NFL’s #7 defense. They were a top ten defense all season and finished with 45 sacks on the year and will face either T.J. Yates or Jake Delhomme.

Now neither quarterback is a world beater at this time however Yates led the Texans to a 20-19 victory over the Bengals just four weeks ago. Yet they haven’t won a game since. The  Texans have to lean on their defense which comes in ranked #2 and has given up the fourth fewest touchdowns this season with 31. Having Andre Johnson is a huge step in advancing to the divisional round. This team is a little beat up and going into the playoffs with a second or third string quarterback doesn’t bode well. We’re just not sure about Jake Delhomme at this point when facing a formidable pass rush.

You have to remember that Bengal’s rookie quarterback Andy Dalton is from TCU and should have some fans at this game. He will want to have a good showing. In his first year replacing Carson Palmer, the former Horned Frog threw for 3,398 yards and 20TDs. A strong showing overshadowed by the success of Cam Newton in Carolina. With 1,067 yards rushing this season from Cedric Benson, the Bengals are built to win this playoff game. Houston does have Arian Foster (1,224 yards rushing) to counter that but this is the first foray into the NFL playoffs for this team and many of their players.

The Texans would be better suited to win this game had Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were completely healthy but in this one…we’re taking the Cincinnati Bengals. You don’t go into the playoffs on a 3 game LOSING streak and expect to wake up in the playoffs. The only time we can remember that happening was in 1986 when the Jets lost their last 5 then beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the wildcard game. Yet they had to switch from Ken O’Brien to Pat Ryan at quarterback to achieve this…. Anyway this should be a game for the Bengals defense to get some respect today.

NFL Week 14 AFC North: De Ja Vu All Over Again

The Steeler defense that is defying father time and has vaulted back to #1 in all of Pro Football.

As this wacky NFL season has had ups and downs and surprise first place teams, the AFC North is taking on an all too familiar theme. It’s come down to the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers as it has much of the last decade. Yet just as we described in our Pre-Season spectacular, this is the last year these two teams will be head and shoulders above their division brethren.

On Thursday night, NFL network is going to showcase one of the league’s best defensive players in D’Quell Jackson, who in our estimation is the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. Right now he’s tied for second in tackles with 112, with 2.5 sacks, 4 passes defensed an interception and 2 fumble recoveries. Of the top 5 tacklers in the NFL this year he has more than 15 more solo tackles than the others, showcasing he is the initial defender to the ball. Oh we forgot to tell you, he plays for the Cleveland Browns. He is the anchor of the league’s #8 defense. What would he be doing had the Browns been able to field a healthy Peyton Hillis and were able to get adequate quarterbacking from Colt McCoy?? If next year the Browns can get an Andrew Luck, or Kellen Moore, or Baylor’s Robert Griffin III this could be a turnaround team for 2012.

As for now they’re still looking up at the neighborhood bully from Pittsburgh. After losing to the Texans, the Steelers have won 7 of their last 8 including a 25-17 win over AFC East leader New England. Unlike the beginning of the season where they had lost to teams with winning records, they also bested Cincinnati twice to take the division lead. The Ravens are ahead of them on a tie breaker but face it, as we head through the money games of November, the Steelers defense has come to life and the last two games didn’t allow 10 points in either contest. Experts, including our CEO, are waiting for this elder defense to age. Yet as we go to press guess who is back at the top spot with the league’s #1 defense. Yet lets take a look at the standings

AFC NORTH W L T PCT HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK
Baltimore 9 3 0 .750 6-0-0 3-3-0 4-0-0 6-2-0 296 192 +104 Won 3
Pittsburgh 9 3 0 .750 5-1-0 4-2-0 2-2-0 7-3-0 268 195 +73 Won 3
Cincinnati 7 5 0 .583 3-2-0 4-3-0 2-3-0 6-4-0 266 250 +16 Lost 1
Cleveland 4 8 0 .333 3-4-0 1-4-0 0-3-0 3-6-0 175 240 -65 Lost 2

The Steelers host Cleveland this Thursday Night in what should be a good defensive struggle. If you expect Pittsburgh to run over the Browns you will be shocked to see Jackson #52 making life miserable for Rashard Mendenhall. Truth be told the Steelers are a passing team. Granted they use the run to set up the pass however more and more they rely on Ben Roethlisberger to make a play on 3rd down to sustain drives. Mendenhall has rushed for 634 yards and 8 TDs and isn’t among the league’s elite in terms of rushing output. Right now they have to ride the wildcard that is Big Ben. He’s on pace to finish with 25TDs and 4,328 yards and only 13 interceptions. His frantic helter skelter comebacks are rarely artistic but they’re more successful than not. Normally there should be an air of worry with the Steelers leading tacklers being Palamalu and Ryan Clark, but that has more to do with they have started every game. Where James Farrior, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, and Larry Foote have each missed at least two games due to injury. They are coming back healthy for the playoffs and that is scary for most teams.

The Raven defense recorded a team record 9 sacks against the 49ers on Thanksgiving night.

The Ravens have the tie breaker having swept their nemesis in Pittsburgh, yet have 4 interesting games coming up. All season long this team has played up to and beat top competition, then down to and lost to lowly teams like Jacksonville and Seattle. Joe Flacco has been playing better as of late and has matured from that last second touchdown throw in the Steelers game. Coach Harbaugh hopes that is all behind them with the Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Browns lining up to play spoiler. The Ravens have maintained a menacing defense, currently ranked 3rd overall, without the services of Ray Lewis. In their last two games without Lewis they have given up only 170 yards to the 49ers, and 233 yards to the Browns respectively. On offense Ray Rice is about to cross the 1,000 yard threshold with 926 yards and 9 TDs, yet it’s Ricky Williams who seems to have fresh legs and is rejuvenated in Baltimore.

The stat that jumps out is Baltimore is 6-1 against teams with winning records. If they run the table in these last four games you’d have to say they are a shoo in for the AFC Championship game. With Ray Lewis healthy for the playoffs what do you think?? Could the Ravens best a Steelers team for a third time if they met in the playoffs?? Interesting questions that we’ll have to wait for an answer.

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