Tag Archives: NFL Predictions

Dak Prescott 2023 Preview- Next Year’s Champion

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Now that the dust has settled on the draft and free agent moves, there are a few things to address as we hurtle toward the 2023 NFL season. During my hiatus, a lot was brought to bear on the future of Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. Mainly how former Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore was scapegoated for all shortcomings his former quarterback had. To many observers Cowboy fans never want to admit the flameouts we have chronicled here at Taylor Blitz for years now.
All of a sudden, Head Coach McCarthy will take over play calling duties when he hasn’t performed that duty in 5 years. This was back when he was let go in Green Bay for running too predictable an offense. Remember?? But before we go there…
  • Last year the Cowboys were chastised for not replacing Amari Cooper after being dealt to Cleveland. Giving Dak a built in excuse.
  • Kellen Moore, who has a bright football mind and led the Cowboys to #1 offensive rankings, became the reason they didnt succeed in postseason.
  • In 2020, Dallas had the worst defense in football. It wasn’t Dak’s fault. The team couldnt stop anyone.
  • Before that it was Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan’s fault. Then Head Coach Jason Garrett’s fault.

Now after losing two offensive coordinators and a head coach, Cowboys brass and coverage would have you believe this is “Next Year’s Champion” and Dak Prescott will show us once and for all. Seriously? We chronicled this in 2021 and in subsequent articles on “The Beta Quarterback” where we outlined Prescott’s damaged ‘fight or flight’ mechanism that causes him to short circuit in crucial minutes of important ball games.

One is to dissect the decisions made by #4 that caused Moore’s dismissal. Prescott was outplayed by a 3rd round “Mr Irrelevant” quarterback in Brock Purdy in the NFC Divisional out in San Francisco. The loss in The Chancellor of Football’s estimation fell square on the fight or flight psychosis of a jittery quarterback that isn’t it.

This crucial mistake late in the 3rd quarter illustrates the “real” problem for the Dallas quarterback:
OK Cowboy fans… The Kellen Moore v Dak Prescott problem… If an offensive coordinator draws a play up and it wins and you misread your keys, its Dak’s fault. Take a look at this play in the 3rd qtr of their playoff loss
I placed the blue dot on MLB Fred Warner as the 49ers bluffed a blitz and running a Tampa 2. (1st pic) He has to cover the deep middle and has to cover the 3 side receiver most inside threat.
In the 2nd pic Warner turns and runs with the inside receiver on the 3 receiver side. Moore drew up and called this play anticipating this defense at this spot on the field. Warner still has the blue dot.
The 3rd pic is when Dak should be releasing the ball. Warner (blue dot) is in the hip of the inside receiver on the 3 receiver side. TY Hilton (green bar) is streaking WIDE THE F OPEN on the opposing 30 and the 2 safeties with blue dots cant get there from their 2 deep landmarks. Warner isnt even facing TY Hilton to help if he wanted to.
Dak could hit him with a line drive pass and Dallas would have had a 1st down inside the 15 possibly 10. If Dak throws it and leads him Dallas has a TD and a late 3rd quarter lead and complete momentum.
Kellen Moore had the play call, play design, spot on the field, anticpated defense and Dak misread the most BASIC pass defense in football “Cover 2”. He throws it to the receiver with Warner all over him and the play is broken up and you punt… never to threaten again.
Yet blame Moore who was 4 for 4 on this play and Dak threw it to the 3 receiver side when the Tampa 2 principle is to have the Middle Linebacker crowd the inside receiver threatening the deep middle. Stop it… Dak sympathizers have more excuses than defending an accidental pregnancy.
This is 7 years in!! Losing to a 3rd string rookie QB where if everyone was healthy he’d be watching in street clothes? Teams can only dress 2 QBs.
Film study? Practice? Did they talk about this play? Keys to the play’s success?
You know they did…
At what point will Dak Prescott be held accountable for these issues as the Cowboys come up short against elite teams?? Especially when it keeps happening in the playoffs at the end of games the Cowboys should have won. Yet here we are again where Cowboys brass and day to day coverage has this team anointed “Next Year’s Champion’s” and will be led by their supposedly great quarterback who struggles to get the job done in money situations.
Now McCarthy who was fired at the end of his tenure in Green Bay for predictable offense is going to get it done. Well?? OK… at Taylor Blitz it’s always follow the psyche of the player in the arena. Its the greatest predictor to future events. The jury is in on Dak Prescott with The Chancellor of Football but you’re free to believe what you want to believe. Only this time…come back in January and let me know I was right.
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Sean Payton Brought In to Fix Russell Wilson

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Back in the 1970’s Bum Phillips was being interviewed when he was asked to describe Hall of Fame Coach Don Shula. Bum in that southern drawl he had looked up and said “Don Shula can take his’n and beat your’n and then take your’n and beat his’n.” Meaning he could formulate a game plan and tailor it to the strength of the players he has no matter the opponent. A trait also shared with Bronco new Head Coach Sean Payton.

His reputation turning around quarterbacks and building a winning culture is why he came at such a hefty sum. Denver giving up another 1st and 2nd round draft pick to New Orleans to trade for his services. Many pundits are looking at what he did to turn Drew Brees career around and using this as a barometer. The Chancellor of Football has another subject in mind, mirroring what he has to do with Russ.

Kerry Collins was the 1st draft choice of the Carolina Panthers who never fulfilled his potential. The Panthers did make the NFC Championship his 2nd season in 1996, but that was a team fueled by NFL Defensive player of the year Kevin Greene, a suffocating defense and a balanced attack. Collins eventually flamed out throwing more interceptions (36) than touchdowns (23) the following 2 seasons.

After a drunk driving incident and the NFL sending him to rehab for alcohol abuse, he also had a racial incident with teammate Mushin Muhammad. Things internally went from bad to worse when he requested a trade and was released by Coach Dom Capers. Citing he had quit on the team. He was even let go after signing on and finishing the season with Mike Ditka’s Saints. These guys were desperate for a QB having traded their entire draft class for RB Ricky Williams.

This was the 1st ever draft choice of the Carolina Panther franchise who hit rock bottom. Five years after being selected he had two losing teams that didn’t want him and his reputation publicly and in NFL locker rooms couldn’t be worse.

Enter Sean Payton.

The Giants sign him in 99 to back up Kent Graham and he did see some action. He conquered his alcohol demons and began to play quarterback at a level greater than he had at any point in his career. He became the starter in 2000 and led the Giants to a 12-4 record and home field advantage for the best record in the conference. Collins was the NFL’s comeback player of the year. How much had he improved going into those playoffs?

  • Collins 1997: 200 of 381 (52.5%) 2,124 yds 11TDs 21 ints
  • Collins 2000: 311 of 529 (58.8%) 3,610 yds 22TDs 13 ints

All of this was happening under the watchful eye of a young Offensive Coordinator in Sean Payton. Through his tutelage Collins had grown from what many considered a game manager to one who could win shootouts if the Giants needed him to. He had never shown this type of promise at his prior stops. So this reclamation project at quarterback and young Offensive Coordinator headed into the 2000 playoffs. Experts were calling them the worst team to ever garner home field advantage. There were sexier choices like The Greatest Show on Turf Rams or the high flying Minnesota Vikings.

After a solid but unspectacular win in a playoff win against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sean Payton called his greatest game of his career in the next where he and Kerry Collins stunned the football world in the NFC Championship Game. A game where they were underdogs at home.

Collins went 23 of 34 for 338 yds and 4TDs in the 1st half alone. All of these were NFC/NFL championship records Joe Montana, Kurt Warner nor any could touch. His 4 1st half TDs broke the record of Sid Luckman. Yes, he broke a 57 year old record that had stood since 1943. He finished with 381 yards and didnt play from the midway point of the 3rd quarter up 41-0. His record of 381 yards stood until Matt Ryan broke it in the 2012 NFC Title Tilt.

Did I say the greatest game of Sean Payton’s career? In this historian’s eyes yes absolutely. Even with his Super Bowl XLIV win in tow because no one saw that type of performance coming. It put Sean Payton and Kerry Collins on the map for good. Payton through this experience where he led the Giants offense for 3 years making the postseason twice and his subsequent stop in Dallas primed him for his Saints tenure.

He then went on to directing Drew Brees to a Hall of Fame career, guiding Jameis Winston to a 5-2 record before injury and still winning with Tedy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill.

He has the pedigree and ability to formulate game plans and bring the best out of Russell Wilson. Especially coming from a position where Russ needs to rehab his reputation after an atrocious season. His lows aren’t to the degree that Kerry Collins were but now it should be football, X’s and O’s and all that fringe off the field nonsense takes a huge backseat. He’s got the quarterback whisperer now and the Denver Broncos should be off and running.

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2022 AFC Championship Preview: Cincinnati Bengals v Kansas City Chiefs

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Is it Arrowhead or Burrowhead? The battle lines have been drawn and the bulletin board material came out of the Queen City right after dusting off Buffalo. This has irked the Kansas City squad along with the national media reminding them Burrow’s Bengals are 3-0 against Mahomes and company. This includes the 2021 AFC Championship Game when they pulled off a shocker. What about this time??

The season began pundits along with The Chancellor of Football swearing the Chiefs were coming back to the pack losing Tyreek Hill. It hasn’t had the affect we anticipated but may today with Travis Kelce banged up and Patrick Mahomes nursing a bum ankle. Hill was used as a deep burner but often would come in motion and catch a “sprint right option” 5 yarder for key 1st downs.

The game will turn with the Chiefs young CBs L’Jarius Sneed & rookie Jaylen Watson trying to take on the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The trio has combined for 217 rec. 2,837 yards 21TDs and each are able to take over a game. Chase caught 7 for 97 in the last matchup and had 6 rec. for 54 yards and 1TD.

We have to see if Mahomes ankle is ready to go. If he still feels the affects of the high ankle sprain and we assume he will, has to rely on the physical running of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon on sweeps and screens.

One of the issues is Patrick Mahomes does most of his damage when he is moving out of the pocket. Most of his playoff touchdowns have come when he has bought time and adlibbed beyond the designed play. Removing that from his game really brings the running game into focus.

Once we look at the running game the Bengals have shows of late and its hard to imagine Joe Mixon (1,205 yds / 13TDs) and Samaje Perine to be outdone in that department.

While Mahomes has had a great season in 2022 this seems a bit much and we have the Bengals making it 4 in a row tonight 34-21.

Thanks for reading and we’ll see you at the Super Bowl!

2022 NFC Championship Preview: Philadelphia Eagles v San Francisco 49ers

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We have entered the home stretch to find out who will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. On one hand you have the 49ers riding an underdog wave of the next “Rudy” in 3rd string QB Brock Purdy. On the other, the final steps of validation for Jalen Hurts who leads a talented Eagle roster at home in this contest. However here at Taylor Blitz Times the excitement generates from the two best offensive lines and the NFL’s #1 & #2 ranked defenses taking the stage.

Did you know the difference between the NFL’s #1 and #2 ranked defense is less than a yard this season? San Francisco 300.59 ypg to Philadelphia 301.47?? Yet a tell tale sign is how those defenses fared coming down the stretch. In the last 7 games the edge goes to the Eagles (286.2 ypg) to (331 ypg).

The Eagles rushing attack led by Miles Sanders (1269 yds 11TD) and Hurts (760 yds rush/ 13TDs) is the 5th best in the NFL. With design runs whether they come from RPOs, sweeps or scrambles should be able to maintain their 147.5 yards per game average. The graphic below shows the 49ers are 1-3 when allowing just 100 yards.

Christian McCaffrey has to have a career game to keep the 49ers in it. Yes the Niners have other backs and Deebo Samuel but they will need their best play makers to win on bubble screens and jet sweeps. McCaffrey will need to make Eagle defenders miss and silence a raucous Philly crowd.

Otherwise this game lands in the hands of a 3rd string QB whose Cinderella story is coming to an end. Not only will the hostile crowd be at full throat but the Eagles vicious pass rush will be loose. The Eagles have a historic pass rush which has recorded 70 sacks. Just 2 shy of the record set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. We haven’t seen this many since the 1989 Minnesota Vikings (71) and its a sack by committee defense. Hassan Reddick (16 sacks) Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat and Jay Hargrave each finished with 11! Where are you sliding the line to?

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) and center Jason Kelce (62) during the NFL divisional round playoff football game against the New York Giants, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)

The line of scrimmage is where this game will be won or lost and the edge has to go to Philadelphia. Once T Lane Johnson made it back last week and showed he can gut it out the Eagles looked like the team that was 14-1 with Jalen Hurts in the lineup. This game looks to be close for a quarter and a half with the Eagles pulling away 38-16.

As we clearly stated in our 2020 NFL draft preview, Jalen Hurts deserved to be the 2nd quarterback drafted after Joe Burrow. In the next 10 hours we will find out if they can rematch their 2019 college football playoff.

The Eagles are going to be headed to Super Bowl LVII.

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2023 NFC Wildcard: San Francisco 49ers v Seattle Seahawks

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Ahhhhh yes!! The NFL playoffs are upon us and the first matchup has two divisional foes that can’t stand one another. The 49ers are coming in hot having won 10 straight including a 21-13 win in Seattle just a month ago. The 49ers bring the NFL’s #1 ranked defense which plays at a blinding pace. Everywhere you look there is speed and Seattle has to establish Kenneth Walker early in this game and match the 49ers intensity & emotion in the first quarter.

However when you think back to the 1st game between these two, Walker and Rashad Penny combined for 25 yards on 10 carries. Which puts the ball sqarely on Taylor Blitz Times comeback player of the year Geno Smith. However a closer look shows how much the team has slowed after a torrid start.

In the 1st 10 games, Seattle scored over 27 points 5 times while only twice in the last 7. They haven’t scored 27 in any of the last 5.

Smith went 399 of 572 for 4,282 yards 30TDs and 11 ints. Do you realize 7 of the picks thrown were in the last 7 games as well? Two came in the finale against the Rams to even make it into the postseason.

Geno isn’t the most fleet of foot for an NFL QB and he will be hounded all day by a DE who is in Nick Bosa. Yes Mr 18 1/2 sacks coming out of his sprinter’s stance could be a step slower with today’s rain but will be a serious factor in determining today’s outcome.

Nick will chase Geno Smith all day today.

Seattle can’t overload to stop Bosa as fellow All Pros Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga will come on timely blitzes. Hufanga sacked Smith and forced a fumble the last time these teams played. He will be near the line of scrimmage to stop Walker and the running game and will be there to shut the door if Smith tries to scramble.

Offensively the 49ers need to stay aggressive in the running game and run “Power” and get away from bubble screens which can backfire with a wet football. These are needed to keep Seattle away from rookie QB Brock Purdy and dictate tempo and play with a lead.

With McCaffrey playing his first playoff game, he will be featured heavily today. A long time Taylor Blitz Times favorite should have 100 yards and 2 TDs today. With Kittle and Deebo Samuel as quick pass options and available for jet sweeps.

Misdirection plays will have a chance to break open today. Especially toward the end of a long drive. We know Coach Shanahan will stay patient and continue even with moderate success early. Its 3, 5, 5, 4 and boom 25 yards and a TD.

Seattle could get knocked out of this game early. They have to steal possessions with early turnovers to neutralize the crowd and gain strategic control of this football game.

Geno Smith can make plays to keep you in a football game but not the great play needed to win an important game.

San Francisco should roll today on a wet field 34-20. This is with Seattle scoring late to make it look closer.

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Going Over a Kliff in Arizona This Friday

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If ever there was a portrait of a coach who lied on his resume and is now being found out, its Kliff Kingsbury.

Never has an NFL coach stepped to the podium with more excuses as to why his team can’t get off to fast starts in ball games. Wasn’t this the anointed offensive guru as he was touted when he was brought to the desert? Yet for all his “brilliant” play calling, the Cardinals couldnt muster a touchdown against the NFL’s 31st ranked defense that had given up the most points in the NFL last Sunday in Seattle.

Before the season I predicted he would be the first coach fired early in the season after going 0-6. Well the Cardinals won 2 games and Matt Rhule beat him to the punch being let go last week by Carolina. However the anemic showing in Seattle has stoked the flames under his seat. In fact Arizona 98.7 FM, which is the Cardinals flag ship radio station, openly asked if he was now “coaching for his job”? To which he had all the standard cliche answers which do not engender confidence he knows what he’ll need to do to turn it around.

The Cardinals offense has been flat on its back for more than a year.

We are 6 games into the season and the Cardinals have only scored 2 1st half TDs by the offense. If you go back to the last 10 the offense has only generated 4.

Lets take a look at a few things:

  • Kingsbury’s Cardinals are 8-18 in the 2nd half of seasons including playoffs
  • Arizona couldnt score more than 20 points in both losses to top 10 defenses in Philadelphia and Los Angeles.

Keep in mind they have 2 games late against San Francisco with the #1 defense in all of football. At what point will this get better?

On top of the embarrassing situation with Kyler Murray not getting into his play book or film study, the team has no identity and this “Air Raid” offense has been ineffective. Constant bubble screens and gimmick plays that keep blowing up and placing the Cardinals behind the down marker.

It looks like they are waiting for DeAndre Hopkins to be the band aid when he comes back. He and Kyler can “make a few plays” to mask how deficient this offense has been. These first 6 games have illustrated how over his head Kingsbury has been in the NFL.

With a Thursday night matchup with New Orleans, here is a national stage where hopefully Hopkins can make some big plays to turn the tide. Yet will he be in game shape?

If not… and the Cardinals who currently are on an 8 game home losing streak make it 9, Kingsbury will be fired tomorrow. The media and the conversation in front of a national audience will be his death knell. Is Kingsbury coaching for his job?? You better believe it

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