Category Archives: 2011 Team Previews

Our annual of what we expect from teams in the upcoming 2011 football season. Preseason Predictions and Super Bowl Predictions.

2011 Baltimore Ravens Preview

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Well, well, well…. How much did a forced fumble alter the course of the Baltimore Ravens franchise??  It was late in the fourth quarter and the host Ravens were up 9-3 in a tough, tough football game.   It was week 13 with the AFC North on the line during a Sunday night tilt with their hated rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers.  A win would lock up the division and probably the number 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, setting themselves up for a legitimate Super Bowl run.  With less than 7 minutes left in the game; Flacco drops back and doesn’t read the blitz,  Troy Palamalu comes unblocked and….

Quarterback: There are reservations about Joe Flacco.  There were some points of improvement but there are times he just doesn’t pass the eyeball test in the big games.  I’ll have to go back to that fumble by Joe Flacco no matter how hard it pains Ravens fans.  That was one where he needs to read the defense and get rid of the football within 3 steps.  In his 3rd season, all as a starter, he should been able to detect a blitz as the Steelers were getting into desperate times.  That fumble could have been the difference between this team playing in Super Bowl XLV and watching it.

Going into his 4th season, Flacco has improved steadily each year and in  2010 was the 7th rated passer in the NFL.  He completed 62.6% of his passes for 3,622 yards, 25TDs and only 10 interceptions.  He did have a game winning throw to T.J. Houshmanzadeh against Pittsburgh in week 4 but let face a few facts:  Against playoff teams in 2010, Flacco had a 2-4 record against playoff bound teams.  In 3 of those games the offense could only muster 10, 14, and 10 points while averaging 17.5 points against playoff teams.  With the signing of Anquan Boldin and Dontae Stallworth a little more firepower from Flacco was expected during these games.  He showed up in games against Buffalo with a 3 TD performance in an overtime win yet could only throw for 1 TD against the Steelers in both games.  He disappears too often against  strong competition and needs to show he can win games and not just rely on the defense. Has to become a leader.

His game lacks confidence and has to go downfield and use his receivers more.  Too many check down throws to Ray Rice.    Quarterback in Baltimore is average at best.

Running Back: The Ravens parted ways with Willis McGahee who has slowed down in recent years.  Ray Rice could use some help with the overall workload yet had an outstanding year.  The fireplug ran for 1,220 yards on 307 carries and was also second on the team with 62 receptions and another 556  yards.  With nearly 370 touches could only reach the endzone 6 times (5 rushing / 1 receiving) and could burn out like Wilbert Montgomery from overuse.  Although he is a willing warrior it would be in his best interest if the Ravens drafted some help here for him.  There could be additional carries for LeRon McClain #33 who is a straight forward running fullback.  He may have to step in and replace the 6 touchdowns McGahee ran in from short yardage.

Right now Ray Rice is a chain moving first down machine who averaged 4.0 yards per carry. If Flacco doesn’t develop further, teams can gang up on him and the mounting hits could slow him down.  Its imperative that they get him some help and possibly more of a break away threat.  Ravens are solid at running back

Receivers: Last year they brought in Anquan Boldin and Dontae Stallworth to bolster this position which produced minimal returns.  Although Boldin led the team with 64 receptions, his 837 yards and 7 touchdowns, were less than Raven fans had hoped for.   A physical and tough receiver who will catch the tough passes over the middle had too few passes thrown his way.  Stallworth was a disappointment in only catching 2 passes in an injury plagued year.  Yet Derrick Mason was there to pick up the slack with 61 receptions for 802 yards and 7 touchdowns to match Boldin.

The Ravens need a boost in the arm here and needs a deep threat at receiver to stretch the field.  The departed Houshmanzadeh, Stallworth and incumbent Boldin and TE Todd Heap are all intermediate threats.  This allowed teams to gang up on all pass routes 20 yards and under which was one of the reasons the ball was checked down so much.  Definite upgrade needed to develop as an offense and there has been talk that the team is going after Santonio Holmes.

Offensive Line: A mixed review for the offensive line in 2010.  For a running team this team had problems pushing the ball into the endzone with only 11 touchdowns on the season, which ranked 18th in the NFL.  Further issues arise when you look at the numbers for Flacco’s passing. Although Flacco ranked 13th in passing attempts with 489, he was sacked 40 times and hit 79 times.  Each of those numbers ranked 23rd in the NFL and they need to improve on those clearly.  Compare that to Peyton Manning who passed 679  times and was only sacked 16 times or rookie Sam Bradford who threw 590 times and was sacked just 34 times. The question is: What does this line do well??

When it comes to power rushing plays on 3rd /4th and 2 or fewer?  This team converted less than 50% of the time running to the left or the right.  They were able to plow forward for the 1st down 75% of the time going up the middle.  The line gets blame for this because if the blocks are performed up front, even a marginal back should get 3-4 yards where the good back can get beyond that.  Matt Birk, is the elder statesman of this line entering his 13th year and anchors the Ravens at center.  At LG and LT is Ben Grubs and Michael Oher respectively, each need to play lower to get more push in the running game.  The same can be said for RG Chris Chester and RT Marshall Yanda who being on the strong side need to provide the impetus to convert those 3rd and 2s coming off tackle.

This line is young with every player on the line aside from Birk all with less than 4 years in the league.  Yet the coaching staff need to get these guys on the 7 man sled and get low and root out the opposing defense.  They play too high which tells us at Taylor Blitz that they spend most of their practice time passing the football.  With a little luck, Harbaugh will push his offensive line to get more in the running game and rest a Super Bowl quality defense.  Offensive Line is slightly below average right now.  Could see a draft pick or two coming to light a fire under these players.

Defensive Line: Lets face it, in the 3-4 defense its these men that have to hold their ground and not be pushed off the ball allowing the inside linebackers to make most of the tackles.  Mission accomplished with Ray Lewis and Jameel McClain combining for an astounding 236 tackles. It starts up front with 6’0, 310 lb. Kelly Gregg at NT.  He ties up blockers with his low play allowing the aforementioned Lewis and McClain to scrape into punish ball carriers.  Ends Haloti Ngata and Cory Redding are also hard to move off the ball aiding in the Ravens overall ranking of 10th in the NFL and 5th against the run.  Redding and Ngata also combined for 8.5 sacks also. At 6’4 and 335 lbs., Ngata is in his prime, has made the last two Pro Bowls along with the distinction of being voted 1st team all pro.

Now don’t forget this team last year drafted 6’4 370lbs. Terrence “Mount” Cody from 2009 National Champion Alabama.  He played some during his rookie year and I expect to see him hit the field even more this year to spell Gregg.  In two years at Alabama they were ranked 2nd in the nation against the run! If he replaces Gregg that gives the Ravens 700 lbs of immovable object in he and Ngata…yikes! Ray Lewis could chase down runners another 5 years behind that.


Linebackers: Again the heart and soul of the defense is Ray Lewis, from the U, is the NFL’s best ever Middle Linebacker.  Although he is going into his 16th season, he has shown exceptional range in the passing game as well as defending the run.  The majority of it is he rarely takes a false step and his exceptional film study has him a step ahead of the offense.  Amazingly he is still the emotional sparkplug of the defense which is a rarity in a player who is an elder statesman.  Again he led the Ravens with 145 tackles, had 2 sacks and 2 interceptions.  He forced 2 fumbles and recovered 3 more.  The only question is when is this future Hall of Famer going to slow down.   He has to be on borrowed time…How long can he play at such a high level??

Which brings us to Terrell Suggs. The Ravens pass rushing ace once again led the team with 11.5 sacks and was terrorizing Ben Roethlisberger with 3 sacks and a forced fumble in the playoff loss to Pittsburgh.  The heir apparent to Lewis’ emotional leading mantle for Baltimore is in the prime of his career and is in perfect position to mentor young Sergio Kindle from Texas.  Suggs is entering his 9th season, has made the Pro Bowl 4 times, is second in all time sacks for the Ravens franchise with 68.5.  He could benefit with another strong pass rusher on the other side and not command so many double teams.  If Kindle can come in and provide that, a 15 -18 sack season for Suggs isn’t out of the question.

Which brings us to Sergio Kindle…Kindle missed his entire rookie season due to injury.  At 6’3 and 250lbs, Kindle could give the Ravens the best set of outside linebackers this side of Pittsburgh if he can rush the passer.  He was a defensive end in college so the transition should be a smoother one with Suggs to show him the ropes.  Kindle was a 5 star blue chip recruit going into Texas yet has had a few injuries.  He was the Texas Longhorns defensive star in the 2009 National Championship Game opposite Alabama’s Cody.  If, and thats a nice sized if, he can hit the field running this team can really bolster its pass rush.  Not to be pushed aside is Jameel McClain #53 at the other inside linebacker spot, who was a solid tracker and recorded 91 tackles in a breakout season in 2010.  Throw in a developing Dannell Ellerbe #59 and you have Super Bowl quality linebackers as they are.  Improvement with Kindle will turn this group into a special unit.

Secondary: Sigh… How in the hell do you give up a 59 yard bomb in the 4th quarter of a playoff game when the Steelers are facing 3rd and 17?? Would like to see the Ravens use a few draft picks here.  Dominique Foxworth, Chris Carr, and Fabian Washington at corner.  Improvement is needed here for the defense that ranked 21st against the pass and get a jam on the receiver on 3rd and 17!!  This team is still hasn’t replaced Jim Leonard who moved on with Rex Ryan to the Jets.  Dawan Landry is a faster and stronger SS yet doesn’t get any interceptions.  He is stout against the run as evidenced by his 111 tackles which ranked 2nd on the team to Lewis, yet didn’t pick off a pass.   He defensed 3 passes but couldn’t corral 1 interception.  That number needs to improve and should with an improved pass rush.

Which brings us to future Hall of Famer, former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and former NFL Defensive Rookie of the year Ed Reed (from The U).  This tremendous talent missed 6 games and still led the league with 8 interceptions and is creeping up on the all time interceptions list with 54.  He is 46 interception return yards from breaking the all time record by Rod Woodoson with 1,483 yards. He has tied or broken 5 NFL records including the two longest interception returns in league history with 106 and 107 yard returns. A seven time Pro Bowler who is going into his 10th season is getting better with age.  He is cagey and fools quarterbacks into throwing into regions that look uncovered and Reed swoops in and turns those plays into instant offense for Baltimore.  As for 2010 he finished with 39 tackles along with his 16 passes defensed and 1 forced fumble.

As a secondary there should be improvement in Landry’s third season as a starter yet this team needs to get their hands on a few good cornerbacks.  They need to play the younger corners and see what they have or draft a few more.  Weak at the corner and monster at the safety makes this an above average secondary as long as Ed Reed can make plays.  Although the wear and tear is mounting on Reed who had hinted at retirement before the season.

Overall: A golden opportunity slipped away last January in the form of Antonio Brown’s 59 yard reception late in the fourth quarter in the playoffs.  This team had a few key drops by their recievers in Boldin and the 4th down drop by Houshmanzadeh.  The offense couldn’t run the ball with consistency against Pittsburgh.  These issues manifested themselves clearly in the playoffs.  Improvement is needed in these key areas for this team to return to the AFC elite.  They have another year where they are among the top definitely, but this is the last year for this team to get Ray Lewis another ring.  Belichick is about to rebuild on the run with 6 draft picks in New England and this team along with Pittsburgh should fall behind the Jets also this year.

Offensive firepower is needed to offset this tremendous defense in case there is a slip in Reed or Lewis’ play.  What is interesting is that in 2010 there was a youth movement with 10 rookies that made the team as compared to 1 in ’09.  Yet much of that talent is unproven including Sergio Kindle and Terrence “Mount” Cody.  Well we shall soon see what they do with next months draft.

Next Up: Philadelphia Eagles

2011 Atlanta Falcons Preview

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The 2010 season was a banner year for the Atlanta Falcon franchise.  Although it ended in disappointment, they came back to dethrone the defending Super Bowl champion Saints and reclaim the NFC South, as they won in 2008 also.  They have a nucleus of talent that is still young and growing, they just happened to run into a buzzsaw in Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs.  They were beaten in the playoffs by the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers who made two herculean interceptions by Tremond Williams to turn the tide, one of which returned for a halftime touchdown, iced the game. Yet through the 2010 season we learned about this team. They were battle tested in facing Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the AFC, then the Eagles, Packers, Seahawks, and split with the Saints.  Thats right 7 playoff teams and thats before we bring up the season sweep of the 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers that kept them from the playoffs.  This team has won 2 of 3 division titles in the toughest division in football, the NFC South.  So where do they go from here?? What do they do for an encore??

Quarterback: This team is set at quarterback for many years to come in Matt Ryan.  Not only does he pass the eyeball test, “Matty Ice” is going to be one of the faces of the NFL through his play over the next decade barring injury.  His third season was a fruitful one completing 357 of 571 passes for 3,705 yards, 28 TDs and only 9 interceptions.  If you only saw his playoff game and saw that late 2nd quarter interception that put the Falcons behind by two scores at the half, you’re short changing one of 2010’s best pressure qbs.  He led drives to take the lead in 7 games last year, most notably, games 3 and 4 in the upset win of New Orleans and San Francsico to get the Falcons season underway.  Then rose to the occasion to do the same in what many thought could be a Super Bowl preview against the Baltimore Ravens in week 9 on a Monday Night.  The 26-21 win with the last second touchdown pass to Roddy White will be the calling card of his career until he wins a playoff game or a Super Bowl.

Ryan has worked hard on his footwork within the pocket.  He always keeps his feet set for to throw and doesn’t throw off his backfoot which caused some balls to sail on him in his first two years.  Another quality he’s worked on is not staring down his receiver allowing the defender to get a jump on his throws.  The playoff interception was an aberration because he was scrambling to that half of the field with time running out and should have thrown it away. Little more improvement and we’re looking at a perennial NFC Pro Bowl quarterback.  Its just time for him to win a playoff game.  Clearly on the rise…Super Bowl quality

Offensive Backfield: One of the NFC’s best and most physical rushing attacks with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling.  They are still scratching their heads in San Diego over why they didn’t re-sign Turner who used to spell LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, opting for the undersized Darren Sproles…yet i digress.  Turner has been a constant force for this Falcons team since his arrival.  In 2010 he was 2nd in the NFC and 6th in the NFL overall with 1,371 yards rushing with a gaudy 4.1 yards per rush average.  Turner is only 3 seasons removed from a career year of 1,699 yards rushing and may be able to best that mark this year.  He’s not much of a threat as a receiver with only 12 catches yet with the Falcons play action passing attack he’s utilized more as a pass blocker.  He can push the pile and fall forward for the extra yards that sustain drives.

With Turner going into his 8th season there is a chance he could start slowing due to hits piling up on that body.  Enter Jason Snelling.  Most teams have a second running back that comes in with a slightly different running style than the starter, not here.  Snelling comes in with his 223lbs. and slashes into the hole and physically finishes off runs the same as Turner.  In his five years he has averaged 4.1 yards per rush and the Falcons can run for a tough 3rd and 2 attempt with either back.  A luxury many teams don’t have.  Running downhill is what this team does.

Rushing attack from time to time is too centered in power football and needs a little bit of wiggle.  Could see a third down back or a scat back to add to their arsenal of backs.  A draft could be used here to pick up a wildcard type of player to provide a little explosion to the mix.  Especially once the bruisers have softened up the underbelly of opponents defenses.  If they stand pat, still an impressive backfield.

Receivers: It all starts with Roddy White, the best receiver in the NFL.  He led the league with 115 receptions for 1,389 yards and 10 TDs.  A Pro Bowl starter and 1st team All pro performer that has a volatile streak is actually the emotional sparkplug for this team.  From time to time the coaches reel him in a little bit but they know they can’t turn him into a church-mouse.  His personality and fight permeates this team and propels his play and if you curb that, the team would go flat.  Coming off 4 straight 1,000 yard seasons this was no fluke.  White is in the prime of his career and should be catching Ryan passes the rest of the decade.  Michael Jenkins is a solid receiver who disappears at times during games. However he had 41 receptions and averaged 12.3 yards per receptions to keep the chains moving.  He only scored twice and needs to break more plays for the Falcons.  At receiver the Falcons could use a boost here in the draft..

Tony Gonzalez showed up as the all time leader in receptions for an NFL tight end and didn’t disappoint with a 70 reception season for nearly 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.  He gave Matt Ryan the safety valve necessary to stay calm in the pocket and get into a passing rhythm week after week.  The Falcons hope to coax another season out of Gonzalez that could propel both to their first Super Bowl victories.  At least that is the plan.  Receiver is great with a little room for improvement from Jenkins or a rookie to step in and help.

Offensive Line: Aside from C Todd McClure, the remaining 4 linemen have 5 years or less on their resume, with McClure entering his 11th.  Not one of the five starters for Atlanta missed a start in 2010 and their performance bore this out.  They were 3rd in the NFL with only 23 sacks allowed while paving the way for 497 carries and 1,891 yards and 14 TDs.  Although the rushing total was only good enough to rank 12th, only the New York Giants and the New England Patriots could boast more rushing yards and less than25 sacks allowed.

Lets face facts, this is a quality line whose cohesion and youth should serve them well in what will be a dogfight in football’s best division.  For the Falcons to reach Super Bowl XLVI this line will need another great year from this offensive line.  Sam Baker (T) and Justin Blaylock (G) man the left side and keep blindside blitzers off of Ryan.  Each one of them are entering only their 3rd year.  Harvey Dahl (RG) and Tyson Clabo (RT) are each entering only their 5th seasons.  This is arguably the best line in football and should continue to improve.  Coach Mike Smith knows his team wins or loses it in the trenches and the heartbeat of this team is the offensive line.  Super Bowl Caliber

Defensive Line: This defense had a decent year in the statistical sense but its totally misleading.  John Abraham had a good year with 13 of the 20 sacks garnered by the defensive line.  However they could use more force at defensive tackle and here is the dilemma:  Although the defense ranked 10th against the run, this team ranked 25th in yards given up per rush with 4.6.  Thats terrible.

Jonathon Babineaux and Corey Peters need to eat up those blockers yet not get pushed off the ball so much.  More pressure is needed from the defensive end opposite Abraham, Kroy Bierman’s 3 sacks is nowhere near enough for a starting defensive end in a 4-3 defense.  Could see several draft picks used on the defensive line although Peters at DT was a rookie.  Abraham is going into his 11th year and has had injury issues throughout his career.

This team’s defense relies on their offense running the ball after getting a lead and controlling the clock to keep them off the field. However as evidenced in the 48-21 divisional playoff loss to the Packers, if the defense can’t force teams off the field on their own the wheels can come off quickly.  This also happened in Philadelphia early in the season in a 31-17 loss.  Spend a couple draft picks to bolster this defensive line. Coaxing another year out of this line as it is wouldn’t be wise…not against up and coming Tampa Bay and the dangerous Saints in the division.  They have to get better. This defensive line is below average…they achieved through smoke and mirrors last year

Linebacker: Curtis Lofton had a solid 2010 at MLB and finished with a team leading 118 total tackles.  He was able to get 2 sacks and force 3 fumbles.  However too often opposing linemen were able to push through the Falcon front and gobble up the smallish linebacker (6’0 /244lbs.) which is a two fold issue.  He has to shed blockers a little better if the defensive front doesn’t improve.  He has good range but what most teams will do is run directly at the Falcon middle until they prove they can stop it.  Steven Nicholas has good speed and range and finished the season with 78 total tackles yet only 1 interception and no sacks.  Needs to make a few more plays like he did in the 1st quarter of the playoff loss when he chased Packer WR Greg Jennings down and forced a fumble 25 yards downfield.  An amazing play.  Solid and strong on the outside should get a few more interceptions facing tight ends.  Mike Peterson is going into year 12 and should give way to the younger Sean Weatherspoon, last year’s 1st round pick, who did start 5 games in place of Nicholas last year.  Either he or Nicholas needs to move in and replace an aging Peterson and get a little more athleticism on the field.  Falcon linebackers are solid but not spectacular…if Weatherspoon can get on the field and pan out…this could change.

Secondary: A funny thing happened here last year.  After making a splash with the free agent signing of CB Dunte Robinson, the play of CB Brent Grimes improved dramatically.  Grimes went to his first pro bowl after leading the Falcons with 5 interceptions, highlighted by a game clinching interception in a week 12 showdown with Tampa for first place. Grimes finished second on the team with 87 tackles showing he will support the run. Tremendous season for the other cornerback.  Robinson only finished with 1 interception and needs a better second season in Atlanta.

Of course the company line is he was getting used to the Falcon system yet was last seen struggling against the Packers.  He definitely needs a bounce back year and he should.  He’s only entering his 6th season and is a physical corner.  He gains some humility from watching Grimes become a prime time player could propel this team into having the best set of cornerbacks in the NFC.  Two young safeties in William Moore and Thomas McCloud have played solid but not spectacular.  Moore tied for the team lead with 5 interceptions.  A very good secondary and if the Falcons can muster a real pass rush can be Super Bowl quality.

Overall: This is the team that will make the pilgrimmage up north to take on the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field for the NFC Championship Game.  The Falcons were 13-3 last year yet they need to improve on the defensive lines and the other wideout needs to make a few more plays.  Yet how they play now it would bode well in Green Bay.  Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to throw for 400 yards in below zero weather outdoors as he did in last year’s domed playoff game.  Stranger things have happened and a piece of history to take with you is that in 2002 the Atlanta Falcons went to Green Bay and won a playoff game in the snow.  The first ever post season loss at Lambeau….ever.   Just sayin’….

Next: Baltimore Ravens

2011 Chicago Bears Preview

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Julius Peppers will have to get after opposing passers to cover up a youthful linebacker set.

The Windy City had a special football season going in 2010.  The pyroetechnics (fireworks) and excitement filled the air as the first ever NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears aroused passions, renewed a century long rivalry as the Super Bowl beckoned.  The sky was blue, the air crisp and hitting could be heard all around Soldier Field and then a mysterious injury to Jay Cutler brought an end to Super Bowl dreams for the Bears and cast a pall over a town, its team, Jay Cutler’s integrity, and the Bears immediate future.  This team wasted a perfect window for themselves! What happened??

Many of us who observed that game were unhappy with the way Cutler removed himself from the NFC Championship. We never saw him hurt in the game.  For me it wasn’t that he looked aloof and didn’t seem interested in a game where he should have had to have been carried off the field against the hated Packers.  He would not help 3rd string qB Hainie as he scrambled through polaroids trying to get a bead on what he was going into.  A few questions come to mind…

How could a quarterback on the brink of rewriting his own image, after the Seahawk playoff game, do so much to reinforce his selfish veneer? Was the response by his teammates and Lovie Smith genuine??  The rest of the players of the NFL sounded off on twitter, as well as fans during our interactive football madness, with a ferocity questioning Cutler’s lack of heart that seem to permeate all media outlets before the game even ended.  Where does Cutler go from here?  Has he lost his teammates?  These are questions that are right on the Chicago Bear’s mantle that have to be addressed before this team can move forward.

Quarterback: Sigh, this is one where we won’t know the extent of the fallout damage from the NFC Championship until the season unfolds.  Cutler showed signs of improvement with the system Mike Martz installed and they came into the second half of 2010 on a roll with the emphasis more on running.  Early on Martz was afflicted with trying to empty the backfield and the sacks, interceptions, and mistakes were prevalent.  Most notably the 9 sack first half of the Giants game on Monday night.  Cutler removed himself from that game in a questionable fashion… hmm?

Entering his 6th season, Cutler should be in his prime, especially with this being his third year in Chicago.  This second under Martz could prove to be a coming out party for him or the nail in the coffin.  The truth of the matter is we have to see if Cutler has lost his team and we’ll get back to that.  In all actuality, his play improved to 23 TDs and 16 interceptions from 27 TDs and 26 interceptions between his second and first seasons in The City of Broad Shoulders. Cutler was asked to throw the ball 123 less times in 2010 in an attempt to minimize turnovers.  He was still sacked a league high 52 times and was accused of holding the ball too long.  There are times when he lacks a feel for the pass rush that comes back to haunt him at inopportune times.   Martz is working on Cutler delivering the football on 5 step drops on time.  He needs to show more consistency in throwing the ball away quicker.  At quarterback the Bears are average and we need to see how Jay deals with throwing the ball away to avoid sacks and turnovers. This year is career make or break for Jay and right now you’d have to call him a break even quarterback at best.  Could see a draft pick going to the quarterback right here in a second or third rounder like Boise St’s Kellen Moore. A year ahead of myself…but you get the picture

Offensive Backfield: An identity needs to be forged here also.  Right now the Bears are working between two 3rd down backs in Matt Forte and Chester Taylor.   They need a more physical franchise back here to help this offense field an identity.  Too often the Bears had to kick the ball back to their opponent because they couldnt power the ball down teams throats on 3rd and 2.   The Bears missed a few years back when they let Rashard Mendenhall of Illinois get away, this time they need to grab Illini RB Mikel Leshoure.  He’s a 6 ft 230lbs bruiser who is a perfect Bear back.  Forte and Chester Taylor are 3rd down backs at best.  Sure Matt Forte ran for 1,069 yards on 237 carries for a nice 4.5 yards per carry, yet all too often the Bears couldn’t establish a traditional running game.  They would rely on running out of passing formations and draws to catch the defense off guard.  A bigger back can make a hole and be able to fall forward and pick up another 4 1st downs a game allowing the Bears to run out the clock.

There are 6 physical running backs coming out in this draft that the Bears would be better served replacing Forte as the every down starter.  This way they can close out ball games,  have Cutler become a second option and play to the strength of the team; defense and special teams.  Stand pat…below average going into this season.  Could see the Bears using two draft picks on runners if need be.  Taylor needs to be released…just an enigmatic signing that needs to be rectified.

Receivers: Many pundits are calling for a splash to be made at receiver to help out Jay Cutler, I think they could use a quality guy here but strategically running back would pay immediate dividends where a receiver would not .  Johnny Knox is serviceable and could be this year’s Miles Austin if the Bears can find the running game to make teams play more 8 in the box.  The reduced screen passes to Forte and bubble screens that supplement the running game would be thrown here.  He has speed and good hands, evidenced by his 51 rec. for 960 yards and 5TDs.  His whopping 18.8 yds per reception plus additional 1 on 1 opportunities would turn him easily into a 70 catch 1,300 yard receiver like that. Think about it. Only receiver to give you impact like that as a rookie was Randy Moss in ’98, so picking that up in the draft is not likely.

Furthermore use Earl Bennett and Greg Olsen’s big bodies a little more and DO NOT rely on passing formations (3 / 4 receivers) so much.  The Bears telegraphed too often when they were going to throw and that clogs too many passing lanes for them.  Olsen (from the U) could have a breakout year with linebackers paying attention to the run. We saw evidence of this in the divisional playoff win against Seattle when we watched Olsen get deep and scorch safety Lawyer Milloy on a 58yd TD on the second play of the game.   Seattle expected run and from a traditional set got on top of their linebackers.  The Bears  could have two , 1000 yard receivers in Olsen and Knox, with Bennett a chain moving intermediate supplement at the other receiver.  Bennett caught 41 rec. for 561 yards and could catch a few more with this offensive premise.  Devin Hester and Aramashodu would be wild cards to be used for special plays or three receiver sets.  The dependable Desmond Clark should be used more in 2 TE sets and this team would really best utilize Cutler with intermediate throws on defenses in traditional sets.

Offensive Line: This team could use an upgrade in several spots.  This team allowed for the most hits on their quarterback and sacks with 56.  Not good!  We have already mentioned the inability to move the ball on the ground in critical opportunities.  The Bears were 23rd in the league in rushing average with 3.9 yds per rush and 21st in the league with 10TDs rushing as an offense.  Instead of really coming down hard on individual players lets just say this is an area that needs upgrading.   A few draft picks here and in a few powerful backs could band aid an offensive approach that would allow offensive line coach Mike Tice to take some young linemen and get on the 7 man sled and run the football.  This is how they can cover deficiencies on their line, Cutler at quarterback, and rush the ball more effectively.  Young lineman can run block easier than pass block.  Stand pat…below average…

Defensive Line: Julius Peppers tilted the field in 2010.  His sacks and subsequent pressure caused numerous holding penalties against Green Bay that were key in a Monday Night win.  He reworked his contract to allow some cap relief and hopefully they will get him some help now that they have released the underachieving Tommie Harris.  Peppers sack total wasnt as high as he would have hoped with 8, but the attention afforded him allowed Israel Idonijie to match him with 8 sacks and an overall defensive ranking of 9. This team was 5th in 3rd down % allowed at 35% which kept the field short for Devin Hester in the return game…yet I digress.  Peppers should get 12-15  sacks this year.

The Bears had a shuttle of defensive tackles in the game to take place of the underachieving Harris. Matt Toeaina #75, just signed an extension started 10 games had 28 tackles and had 2.5 sacks last season.  Immovable on the point which allows Bear linebackers to flow to the ball.  Look for a breakout year with teams unable to gameplan for this 6ft 2 305 lbs plodder.  Anthony Adams #95 (take that off…its Richard Dent’s) was the other tackle who also had a good year with 37 tackles while tying up blockers.  Peppers and Idonijie are in their prime and the tackles are young and immovable.  A Super Bowl defensive front

Linebackers: Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are probably the best 1-2 punch at Middle and Outside Linebacker in the NFL.  Urlacher really benefitted from missing the entire season before and he looked fresh all through the 2010 season.  “If only he had legs to get that 3rd quarter interception of Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship to the endzone” is echoing through the minds of Bears fans everywhere. Yet that play showcased his skills entirely. His drop, read and react skills, quickness to catch the ball in traffic and make a play when his team desperately needed one. Urlacher was 1st on the team in tackles with 126, 3rd on the team with 4 sacks and was one of the leaders of a punishing defense.

Briggs came in second with 88 tackles, had 2 sacks and 2 interceptions in a fine all around performance.  He along with Urlacher were able to roam free with offensive line attention placed on the D-Line.  Briggs is as good against the run as he is against the pass.  A sure tackler who is also in the prime of his career.  Briggs is entering his 10th season and Urlacher his 13th so its imperative the Bears make a move on the defensive side of the ball in next years draft.  The Bears should be even better with the return of Hunter Hillenmeyer #92 from injury.  A solid linebacker who is best on the outside can play inside in a pinch as evidenced by his 2009 performance.  A solid group that is getting up there in years but going into this season is still a Super Bowl set of ‘backers.

Secondary: First and foremost Charles “Peanut” Tillman was robbed of an NFC Pro Bowl spot in  2010.  Get this; he was 3rd on the team in tackles with 83 behind Briggs and Urlacher, 1st on the team with forced fumbles with 4, and 1st on the team with 5 interceptions. All of this on a top 10 defense that made the NFC Championship Game and no pro bowl? Seriously? A great zone cornerback with cover skills and will tackle in the running game. Tillman should have a long career and is in his prime right now.  Players like this are able to move to safety when they lose a step so don’t be surprised in a few years when he’s back there.  Tim Jennings #26 was playing some good football the last time we saw him in the NFC Championship Game.  The Bears coaching staff should have allowed the Bears corners a chance to be more aggressive on the line of scrimmage. Jennings is quick but can get muscled by stronger receivers.

At safety Harris and Daniel Manning are solid safeties.  They do lack swivel hips to turn and run and require a good reroute of the receivers at the line.  However against the run they each have some heft and will put the finishing touches on a ball carrier.

Overall: This team could be in for a long season if they don’t move quickly and get their hands on a few running backs and offensive linemen to give them the best chance in 2011.  Spending too much for a top flight receiver to get Jay Cutler to throw more would be disastrous and showcase a line that is in serious need of a rebuild.  Furthermore it could damage the psyche of the team and how they feel about Jay Cutler.  They let a golden window for a Super Bowl run close on them yet with a few astute moves can keep it open one more year slightly.

This team had an esprit du corp that was second to none going into that championship tilt with Green Bay.  With the defense allowing Devin Hester ample kick return opportunities they should fend off Detroit and stay ahead of the rebuilding Vikings this year.  Will they catch Green Bay?? Only if they can get to an NFC Championship at Lambeau Field…now that would be full circle and will take an olympian effort to get there.

2011 New England Patriots Preview

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Somewhere in Massachusetts the question is still being asked; “What happened?” A Patriot team that re-invented itself on the move, by going back to the more conservative offensive approach that brought three championships earlier in Tom Brady’s career. Brady finished the season on an 11 game streak without throwing an interception.  A young defense that seemed to be jelling as the playoffs neared.  Jerrod Mayo led the league with 175 tackles while the Patriots held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 7 or fewer points.  Only 5 weeks removed from a 45-3 beatdown of division opponent New York, and here they were going into the rematch in the Divisonal playoffs…uh “What did happen?”

Will the Patriots march to another 14-2 record? What will Bill Belichick address with his stockpile of picks going into this year’s draft?  Did the New York Jets tilt the balance of power in their favor and did they gain a psychological edge over their divisional opponent?  Things to keep an eye on as this season unfolds.

The one ace in his sleeve is Brady.

Quarterback: There isn’t a quarterback in the NFL that rates as high as Tom Brady.  He won the MVP for 2010 unanimously for arguably the best of his 11 career seasons.  With a pedestrian receiving corps and series of backs, he threw for 36TDs and only 4 interceptions.  At midseason, we were unsure how Brady and the Patriots offense would fare after moving Randy Moss.  Tom made Julian Edelman, an older Deion Branch, and TEs Gronkowski and Hernandez look like seasoned pros as the Patriots moved to more of a possession passing game.  After setting the record for most pass attempts without an interception at 335, Brady set another career record for touchdown-to-interception ratio at 9.0. It seems time to remove Brady from contemporary comparisons and focus on his place in history.  He has an overall record of 125 wins and only 37 losses to go along with his 3 Super Bowl wins.

However there is a book on Brady as there is on every other quarterback, you have to hit Brady early and get him to look down at the rush.  This happened in Super Bowl XLII against the Giants and the camera caught Brady with that same flustered look in the loss to the Jets.  We have to remember that Brady is going into year 12 and his mobility is limited and seems to wince when someone is going to hit him in the legs.  This has become more evident since his 2008 knee injury.  When a team can get to him physically Brady can throw errantly as he did to David Harris of the Jets in the first quarter which set the tone in last year’s playoff loss.  Of course this is easier said than done yet Brady is going into the stage of being one of the game’s elder statesman and the question has to be asked;  How much longer can he play at such a high level?  At least another four years in our opinion.  Quarterback is Super Bowl quality in Foxboro

Offensive Backfield: This backfield is in need of an upgrade.  Danny Woodhead and Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis are marginal at best.  Woodhead played commendably during the second half of the season, rushing for 579 yards total.  Green-Ellis ran for 1,008 yards and 13 TDs and did not fumble over the entire season.  They ran for many yards out of passing formations and won’t be affective when game planned for.  When push came to shove and the Patriots had to run in the playoff game they couldn’t, as evidenced by their 5 for 16 effort in converting 3rd or 4th downs against the Jets.  If Belichick can get his hands on a solid, physical running back like Ryan Williams of Virginia Tech,  or Mikel Leshoure of Illinois.  With six of the first 33 picks in this year’s draft, its conceivable they could select both of these guys and return to having a real power back like a Corey Dillon.  Woodhead and / or Green-Ellis would be better served as 3rd down backs then they could release Kevin Faulk who is long in the tooth.  Woodhead was a great story and is this team’s version of Rudy which is nice but Rudy won’t run this team to the Super Bowl.  Serviceable to below average if they stand pat.

Receivers: Wes Welker is the best slot receiver in football and is as elusive a player there is in the NFL.  His numbers were down in 2010 with 86 catches for 848 yards v. the 123 catches for 1,348 he garnered in ’09.  It was the move to a possession offense that brought down his numbers with many of the receptions that he would have seen now being thrown to rookie TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. In fact Gronkowski set a team record for TDs by a TE with 10 while catching  42 receptions and 546 yards for the season.  Hernanadez caught 45 passes for 563 yards and 6 more TDs.  The 2 tight end alignment became more prevalent after Randy Moss’ departure and the short passing game offset the rushing game.

Brad Edelman is a Welker clone and is serviceable but can’t get deep.  Deion Branch played several games like the Branch of old and may benefit after a full training camp. The new deep threat is Brandon Tate who is a burner yet needs to learn a few set up moves to get himself deep.  There are nuances a receiver uses to set up a cornerback to get behind them and Tate will be a better receiver once he learns them.  Its conceivable to see the Patriots address the receiver position as well with Branch going into his 11th season and Welker his 9th.  Injuries are starting to add up and there is a chance for these receivers to be tightly covered without any serious burners.  As a group these receivers are serviceable.

Offensive Line: Remember earlier when it was said that the best way to get to Brady was with a pass rush?  Well here comes the problem. This veteran line  was among the best at protecting Tom Brady coming in 3rd in fewest quarterback hits with 52, and 3rd in fewest sacks allowed with 25.  Starts up front with Matt Light at LT who takes on the best blindside rushers and keeps Brady upright.  A solid tackle whose fellow linemen G Logan Mankins, C Dan Koppen, G Dan Connolly, and fellow tackle Nick Kaczur may be the best offensive line in the biz.  They also paved the way for 1,973 yards and 19 TDs.  There were several times where this offensive line couldnt get a push on a critical third and two yet the Patriots make the most with astute play calling and short throws to the TEs to offset this.  The week of the Super Bowl the Patriots offensive line won the second annual Madden Most Valuable Protectors  Award for the most outstanding offensive line. This is a Super Bowl caliber offensive line and along with Tom Brady made some marginal RBs and WRs look like stars.

Defensive Line: The beef upfront starts with Vince Wilfork, the immovable DE / DT from “The U”.  As we go to press this week the ink is drying on the free agent contract for Marcus Stroud formerly of Buffalo.   Wilfork has been joined by Gerard Warren in clogging the middle of the Patriots line allowing for linebackers to make tackles unselfishly.  Evidence of this?? The leading tackler in the NFL in 2010 was Patriot ILB Jerrod Mayo with 175.  Thanks in large part to Warren and Wilfolk tying up blockers.  Mike Wright and 2nd year DE Ron Brace need to stay on the path to improvement that led to such a strong defensive finish.  However the Patriots could use 1 or 2 of those first 6 picks here to improve a pass rush that relies on ‘backers to get to the quarterback and not it’s D-Line. Thirteen sacks by the D-Line is not enough.  Steady up front but not spectacular.

Linebackers: This group begins and ends with the stellar play of Jerrod Mayo, who was a first team All Pro selection after leading the league in tackles with 175.  Following him along the Belichick learning curve is Brandon Spikes from Florida.  Entering his second season watch for teams to try and fool him out of position as they did early in his rookie season to no avail.  No one has been teaching excellent linebacker play over the last couple of decades like Bill Belichick, expect him to round these two into shape and anchor his defense for the next decade. If there is an injury that robs either of time, there is special team ace Gary Guyton to fill in nicely.  Decent set of linebackers with room to grow.  Throw in second year linebacker Jermaine Cunningham and you can see Belichick has much to tinker with.

Secondary: This was the area the youth movement on defense made some strides that may come to benefit the Patriots entering 2011.  Rookie Devin McCourty picked off seven passes on his way to his first pro bowl.  Brandon Merriweather the starting FS from Miami has to reel in a sometimes undisciplined approach that saw him gain notoriety from a head to head shot on Ravens tight end Todd Heap last season.  Aside from that this was a Pro Bowl safety with a penchant for making big plays in the secondary once teams made it past the linebackers.  Merriweather tied twin strong safeties Patrick Chung and James Sanders for second on the team with 3 interceptions.   There should be a spirited battle between former 1st round pick Darius Butler and Kyle Arrington for one of the corner spots.  This is a young, aggressive secondary.  One with two pro bowlers on it and with continued improvement could grow into the best in the NFL. With 3 quality corners and safeties, Belichick can turn them loose in very exotic dime packages to confuse rival passers.  A good secondary with a chance to be really good this year.

Overall: If you detected a pattern of looking back to the AFC Divisional loss to the New York Jets during this article, there was a reason for it.  This is the only team that stands in the way of the Jets playing in that elusive Super Bowl.  It will be the Jets v. these Patriots for the AFC Championship Crown.  A little improvement in the running game will benefit this team greatly.  Once teams realize Brady can’t get deep on them they will have the intermediate routes fully clogged with defenders to smother his hot routes and crossing plays.  If the Patriots stay pedestrian in the running game they will continue to lose during the playoffs and not get back to the Super Bowl and excorcise the demons of Super Bowl XLII and subsequent back to back home playoff losses.  Take some of the pressure off of Tom Brady and they can overcome the Jets, without that pressure, the Patriots pedestrian receivers will doom them against superior Jets corners again.  Thanks to the Jets winning last year, let it be known that a rivalry has been born.  Hatfield v. McCoys for the AFC Championship.  Rex Ryan said, in one of his rookie press conferences, that he wasn’t ‘brought in to kiss Belichick’s rings’ … What you going to do about it Bill??  A good draft by the Patriots can tilt the balance of power back in their favor. Can the Patriots match their 14-2 record??  I think there will be a slip from that to maybe 11 or 12 wins but they will be there battling in the end.

Next: 2011 Chicago Bears Preview

2011 New York Jets Preview

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Twice to the AFC Championship Game and vanquished one game away from the Super Bowl.  Do they go the way of the 70s Houston Oilers or 80s Cleveland Browns who made it to the pinnacle of the conference only to fall back into obscurity. Or fulfill their promise like the ’94 49ers, after losses in ’92 & 93, then advance to a Super Bowl win?  Time will tell but as we go to press today, the Jets have released center turned tackle Damien Woody and are parting ways with DE/OLB Jason Taylor, NT Kris Jenkins, and OLB Vernon Gholston.  The loss of Jenkins and Taylor would hurt the team from a locker room standpoint yet Gholsten has underachieved to record levels.  Yet don’t be surprised when / if Jenkins or Taylor are brought back later.  I don’t see either being pursued  by other teams and no, Taylor is not going to go back to Miami.

The Jets have an ‘esprit de corps that permeates their roster yet they seem to be on borrowed time with a smaller window than most elite teams.  This is a veteran laden squad that really leans on veteran leadership to offset the bombast of Rex Ryan to keep the team on point.  There are moments where veteran players bridge the gap between Coach Ryan’s declarations and the work that needs to be impressed into the young players minds to make that happen.  Careful New York, don’t let too many of these guys get away.

Quarterback: Very young Mark Sanchez, whom former USC / present Seattle Seahawk  Head Coach Pete Carroll proclaimed wasn’t ready for the NFL.  (Cue laughter) This is the only quarterback in the NFL to defeat both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in a single season playoff run.  Understand what you are seeing here and yes the Jets are a run first / pass second team.  Its a more traditional take on how to run offense yet no other quarterback in history was asked to defeat 3 consecutive Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in one post season run.  Yet he didn’t crack under the pressure and proved to be a leader on the rise until the bitter end.  After throwing for 5 TDs and only 1 interception in last year’s playoffs, Sanchez was seen rallying the troops on the sideline (most notably) on camera with Jerricho Crotchery that the cameras picked up in the waning moments of the AFC Championship.  This kid is the real deal.

Speaking of kid, its imperative that his brothers who run most of his business affairs, keep him from the pratfalls that could derail a tremendous career.  He’s a traditionalist in terms of finding a rhythm once the rushing game has established its dominance but hell Bart Starr played that way.  However look at the improvement Sanchez provided in year two: 17TDs to 13 ints v. 12 TDs to 20 ints in year one.  That same level of improvement, however unlikely, would be Mark throwing for 25TDs and only 6 interception and that I could promise you would be those of a Super Bowl champion.

Unlike Joe Flacco, Sanchez is improving as a quarterback.  His play in the second half of football games, AFC Championship included,  Sanchez has thrown for the go ahead touchdown on 4 occasions last year.  His improvement can be measured in the coaching staff asking him to throw more than his rookie season.  Although his completion percentage stayed the same (53.8 to 54.8) he threw for nearly 900 more yards.  He was asked to throw 507 times last year as compared to 364 times during his rookie year and he threw 7 LESS interceptions in his sophomore year.  Detractors of his play need to take a long look in the mirror because thats legitimate improvement.

Playing in the fishbowl that is the New York media, Rex Ryan has been brilliant at deflecting the heat of winning and losing onto himself allowing for his young quarterback to flourish with minimal pressure.  Mark Sanchize is on the rise.

Offensive Backfield: This backfield has one more season in its present state. Shonn Greene and Ladainian Tomlinson spelling each other allows the Jets to go with the hot hand during various games as well as share the pounding.  This allowed Tomlinson to have lively legs toward the end of the season.  But lets face it he came into the season with a chip on his shoulder to show that he can still play and came in in great shape.  This proud future Hall of Famer ran for 914 yards in his first season in Gotham, up from the 730 yards the season before, even though he ran 4 FEWER times than his last in San Diego.  He showed the burst that many thought he lost a few years back.  The Jets believe they can coax another season out of him and we believe so as well.  His locker room impact is even greater than his on field presence but his shelf life will run out after this season as a player.

As for Shonn Greene, he was asked to take on more of the heavy lifting at running back and had a decent second season.  However his averaged dropped to 4.1 per carry from 5.0 as a rookie.  Teams game planned for him more and were affective in slowing his production.  Greene has patient feet yet sometimes runs up the back of his blockers.  This can be seen as a positive or a negative depending on how the play ends.  One of the better plays came as he bounced out the game clinching touchdown run that sealed the Patriots fate in the playoffs.  Although he believes he can pound the football and move the pile, he can get thrown for an occasional loss.  Greene slip some of those solid hits and prolong your career.  He ran for 766 yards and may run for 900 this year.  Teams will plan for Sanchez to be better at throwing the football and allow for the Jets to run for even more yardage this year.  Greene will be the big beneficiary of that with LT taking more of a supplemental role earlier in this new season.  A draft pick should be spent at RB to prepare for LT’s imminent departure.

Receivers: Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are a good match as a set of receviers.   Edwards handling the intermediate routes and Holmes as the game breaker. Uh…well not quite.  A closer look at the numbers shows that they were close in receptions (Edwards 53 rec. / Holmes 52 rec.) yet Edwards gained 904 yards to Holmes 746.  Their combined 13 touchdowns and yardage should be up with a maturing Sanchez.  With that being the case look for fewer catches for Jerricho Crotchery who caught 41 passes last year.  This year there will be more plays called for Holmes to get short passes in space and gain yardage after the catch.  This is a solid threesome at receiver.  They could use a draft pick here to obtain a speedy receiver who could double as a returner.

Offensive Line: This team just took a hit with the loss of tackle Damien Woody.  Hopefully there is a succession in place because this team may need to re-sign him if there is a drop in production.  For this was the 4th best rushing offense in football rushing for 2,374 yards and a lofty 4.4 yard average.  As a group this team tied for 7th giving up only 28 sacks so hopefully this a cap relief and resign move.  Nick Mangold, Matt Slauson, D’Brickshaw Ferguson, and Brandon Moore make up the nucleus of a solid line that will be a cohesive unit for years to come.  With Moore the only linemen who has more than 5 years experience.  Mangold is a Pro Bowler center and first team all pro, who is in the prime of his career.  A solid anchor that will make all the blocking audibles along this very solid front.  This line is Super Bowl ready.

Defensive Line: Shaun Ellis is entering his 11th year and is still stout against the run but slowing as a pass rusher.  Well partly, a 3-4 end usually is running twists and stunts to free linebackers and other blitzers to get to the quarterback.  Rex Ryan would be happy to get more than 4.5 sacks out of his starting end to keep him from blitzing.  The Jets parted ways with NT Kris Jenkins who has been hit with too many injuries as of late.  Age and injuries have slowed one of the best run stuffers in recent years.  Don’t be surprised if they bring him back as an insurance policy when the playoffs near. DE Mike Devito is adequate but not spectacular. This team could use a few draft picks on their D-line, this team needs a jolt when it comes to rushing the passer.  They haven’t replaced John Abraham as a top shelf pass rusher.  Could easily see the Jets draft several pass rushers as they did with Abraham and Shaun Ellis back in 2000.

Linebackers: Absolutely the heart and soul of the defense. There isn’t a better set of inside linebackers than Bart Scott and David Harris.  Scott is the emotional leader and a physical hitter with great tackle to tackle range.  Playing next to a great talent makes one either shrink or raise their level of play.  The latter is what has taken place with “Hitman” Harris, who was designated this year’s franchise tag to keep him from leaving via free agency.  He’s averaged 107 tackles and 3 sacks over his 4 years in New York and also provided the signature play in the AFC Divisional upset of New England.  His 58 yard interception return in the 1st quarter was the first hint that Tom Brady was about to have a long day.

The aforementioned Bart Scott is the soul of this defense.  His intensity and strong play is why Ryan brought him in from Baltimore the moment he got the head coaching job in Gotham.  In his two seasons in New York Scott has averaged 86.5 tackles and is still in his prime entering his 10th season.  Scott and Harris punish runners and smother tight ends on underneath routes.  Hopefully the Jets can get an injury free season from OLB Calvin Pace who no longer has Jason Taylor sharing time with him.  Taylor was released earlier this week yet maybe a cap insurance policy to be brought back later in the season.  Pace will need to produce the 10.5 sacks that he and Taylor combined for in ’10.  With Bryan Thomas coming in from the other side (6 sacks) this is as solid a set of linebackers in the NFL. Near Super Bowl quality.

Secondary: OK I was guilty of giving Darrelle Revis grief for getting beaten a few times early last year but lets face it, he didn’t get a proper training camp in and was back to his usual self when he rounded into game shape later in the season.  His 0 interceptions last year was an anomaly and he will be there from day one of camp and will return to the shut down corner averaging 5 interceptions per year.  Antonio Cromartie came through with a good season also.  He battled Randy Moss to a standstill in that early season matchup against New England.  His long arms throw off receivers when he gets physical and jams wideouts and not depend solely on his athleticism.  Revis and Cromartie are entering their 5th and 6th seasons respectively and remind me of the Hanford Dixon / Frank Minnifield pairing in Cleveland in the 1980s.  Do not be surprised if they both make the pro bowl and a strong interception total by Cromartie as teams throw away from Revis.   A 10 interception season by Cromartie is not out of the question.  Nickelback Drew Coleman is a solid 3rd corner and affective blitzer.

Jim Leonard is quietly one of the leaders of this defense and is affective in keeping the secondary together.  A coach on the field also doubles as the team’s punt returner.  The Jets missed him in the playoffs and for a Super Bowl run they’d be better served with their captain.  Pool and Smith are solid at the free safety position as well.  As a unit, this could be the best secondary in football, certainly in the AFC and they are Super Bowl quality.

Overall: This team is primed to reach Super Bowl XLVI, make no mistakes about it.  A friend of mine, Randy Davis was right about this team being the real deal last year and I wasn’t sure.  After that playoff run I am totally sold.  This isn’t just Rex Ryan talk either.  If you analyze this team as I have you’ll see that there are no obvious weaknesses.  A quarterback who is growing in stature and on the verge of a breakout season.  An organization with a signature playoff win against New England that has them brimming with confidence.  The key is for them to not get overconfident and remember that sick feeling they had as the time ticked away in Heinz Field last January.

I can’t say it enough but Mark Sanchez is on the cusp of super stardom.  He’s young, mobile and grew a thick skin during the ’10 playoff run.  With the NFL having played exhibition and a regular season game in Mexico, where American football has tremendous popularity, its befitting to see a rising Hispanic star come to the forefront.  Uh…Pete Carroll you missed, this kid is ready and he already has the NFL all time record for road playoff wins with 4.  He will improve even further and once this team gets home field advantage…yes this is going to be the AFC participant v. the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLVI.  Move over Broadway Joe,  Mark Sanchize, Bart “Can’t Wait!” Scott, LT, David “Hitman” Harris and Rex Ryan are about to make a Super Bowl run.  Long suffering Jets misery should come to an end next February.

2011 Steelers Preview

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Welcome to the casual Friday version of the Taylor Blitz Times.  Time to look at what the Steelers have to address as we look into the crystal ball and figure what this team needs to address going into 2011.  While it’s true Pittsburgh has made it to 3 Super Bowls in 5 years they do have a few things to address.   The Steelers have another solid year of being clearly better than all but Baltimore in their division.  The Browns are improving and the Bengals aren’t sure if they are coming or going, especially with the ongoing Carson Palmer saga.  Yet a closer look and there are some positions where the Steelers are showing age and wear.  This can haunt a team that is used to winning close games for a fickle bounce of the ball one way late can turn what would have been a win into a loss.  So lets get started.

Quarterback: Big Ben Roethlisberger, who doesn’t play according to the quarterback ratings system and doesn’t seem to be a polished passer.  He’s not in the Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning class right? Thats perception until you look at the actual numbers. In 2010 Roethlisberger threw for 17 TDs and only 5 interceptions and had a passer rating of 97.0.  His TD to interception ratio is as good as any QB in the NFL.  His never give up on a play attitude does lead to some sacks and turnovers but it also leads to breathtaking plays like the 59 yard bomb to rookie Antonio Brown, with 2 minutes to go in the divisional playoff with the Ravens.  His comebacks are more schizophrenic than artistic yet his statistics are starting to show he belongs in the upper echelon of quarterbacks.

Going into his 7th season Ben is clearly in his prime.  In 2009 he threw for over 4,300 yards and 26tds a season after throwing for a career high 32tds in 2007.  Scrambling and making plays has masked a deficient running game a few years back and now a suspect offensive line.  You have to give him credit he’s a winner.  He had an off game early in Super Bowl XLV against the Packers, yet battled back in that one as well.   Still on the upswing…

Offensive Backfield: The Steelers are set for the forseeable future with Mendenhall.  A physical runner with quick, patient feet.  No running back in football defines his team with his style of play.  Although he’s had back to back 1,100 yard seasons, 1,273 in 2010, and he’s done so behind a patchwork offensive line  which needs to be improved.  Could challenge for a rushing title behind a better line. Entering his 4th season, he’s proven durable and may have his best season.  He wants to make good after his 4th quarter Super Bowl fumble and you know he’s living with it this entire off-season.  Look for him to come into 2011 with a serious chip on his shoulder.  Mewelde Moore is a capable backup and can fill in for Mendenhall in spells yet is better as a back on screens and draws than off tackle plays.   A little of Mendenhall has rubbed off on Moore who has run with more authority since Rashard’s arrival.

Offensive Line: A beleaguered group did hit a good note with the drafting of center Maurkice Pouncey.  He can anchor the Steelers line for many years to come.  Where there are issues is when you move out to Tackle.  Flozell Adams was only a stop gap measure for the injuries to both Willie Colon and Max Starks.  The Ravens Terrell Suggs had 3 sacks against this line in the divisional playoff also.  When healthy, Starks has problems with quicker pass rushing ends and linebackers anyway.  Look to the Steelers to draft some help here.

Contrary to popular belief, this line doesn’t get as much push in the running game as it seems.  They have benefited from Mendenhall breaking tackles and making them look better than they have played.  Much like Roethlisberger’s scrambles have helped their sack numbers.  In the Super Bowl you could see this when Mendenhall was hit in the backfield 6 times on rushing plays including the critical 4th quarter fumble that sealed the Steelers fate.  More and more drives depend on Ben making a play to keep drives alive than the Steelers powering the ball down opponents throats.  That deficiency clearly comes from this line not getting much push.   Need a serious upgrade and should use 2 draft picks here.

Receivers: After the loss of Santonio Holmes, I for one, thought this would be a weakness that would come back to haunt the Steelers.  The emergence of Mike Wallace, who was a Pro Bowl snub, more than made up for Holmes departure.  Wallace’s performance?  60 receptions for 1,257 yards and 10 touchdowns with a whopping 21 yards per reception and no Pro Bowl? Come on man!  This deep, threat entering his third year, played better than expected and compliments Big Ben’s scrambling to put fear in rival defenses and will only get better.  Rookie Antonio Brown started to emerge as the playoffs neared and should replace Randle El.  He showed explosive speed as well and was a jolt to the Steelers special teams and will come into year 2 brimming with confidence.

Hines Ward has really slowed, he looked like a tight end through much of last year.  He’s been a durable Hall of Fame receiver who may retire before we get to the 2011 season. The Steelers will need to develop a possession receiver or move to more 2 tight ends if Ward doesn’t come back.  If he does look to teams running man under coverage and smothering him on underneath routes because he can’t get deep.  He may need to be platooned and come out in certain situations. He’s slowed too much.  At tight end Matt Spaeth and Heath Miller are the best one – two punch in football. Each block and are sure handed underneath receivers and bail Ben out on those 3rd and 4 scrambles.   At receiver, the Steelers are really in good shape.

Defensive Line: Although this team was one of history’s most stout defensive fronts, this team can become old and give up yards in a hurry like the Steel Curtain of the 70’s did in 1980.  DE Aaron Smith enters his 13th year along with fellow DE Brett Keisel going into his 10th.  At NT, you have Casey Hampton entering his 11th season while his backup Chris Hoke is going into his 10th…Yikes!! They could be on the verge of a defensive collapse. They really had no affect in Super Bowl XLV.  They did draft Ziggy Hood who has been a little more consistent as of late but 2011 could be the last hurrah with fingers crossed that 2010 wasn’t for this group.  Face it from halftime of the AFC Championship game against the New York Jets on through the Super Bowl, this group was non existent.  The Packers and Jets ran when they wanted to.  Watchout…seriously

Linebackers: Don’t look now but the Steelers are getting a little long in the tooth at inside linebacker also.  James Farrior has quietly been one of football’s best ILBs for the last six years.  He’s been a consumate pro since he came over from the NY Jets yet he’s entering his 15th season.  The Steelers brought back Larry Foote who played well last year and he’s entering his 10th season while they’re backup Keyaron Fox is entering his 8th.  Fox also had a dumb personal foul call on the kickoff before the Steelers final drive that pushed them back to a point of desperation in the Super Bowl.  The Steelers need to draft here to prepare for the enevitable.

At outside linebacker this team couldn’t be more set with former NFL Defensive Player of the Year in James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley.  The best set of outside linebackers in football bar none.  Even if one of them goes down, the Steelers have Lawrence Timmons out of Florida State, whom they play out of position as a nickel inside linebacker just to get him on the field.  Harrison and Woodley are stout against the run and rush the passer as well as any set of linebackers in history.  Their disappearance in Super Bowl XLV was puzzling….Woodley, Farrior, and Harrison combined for only 7 tackles in that football game.  The Packers handled this team at the line of scrimmage and no one was used to that.  Need to draft some inside linebacker help….

Secondary: The word for today kids is exposure.  LOL  Ike Taylor and William Gay were struggling to chase down Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson in the Super Bowl.  Do you realize had Jordy held onto the 3 passes he dropped he would have broken Jerry Rice’s Super Bowl receiving record for yardage?  This bunch got scorched once the pass rush was stymied.  Need legitimate help here. Taylor is a free agent and may leave, barring the team that tries to sign him not look at the Super Bowl footage, yet I digress.  a stat was floating around that this was the 22nd best defensive backfield as a group yet it was the corners who were the Achilles heal.  Help needed immediately

For the safeties are the best in football as a tandem in NFL Defensive Player of the Year Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark out of LSU.  However how long can these two play at such a high level?  Polamalu is going into year 9 and Clark is going into year 10 and the pounding is taking its toll on Troy who has missed 5 games in the last two seasons due to injury.  He rushed to come back and wasn’t the same player and you saw he couldn’t get to the corner to stop Aaron Rodgers throws over the corner.  Troy just couldn’t get there.  When healthy he is the most instinctive defensive players in the NFL and will go to the Hall of Fame.  Has his physical style of play rendered his body to the point he can’t complete a full season anymore?? Hmmm??

Draft, draft, draft!!  There are some needs everywhere from both the offensive and defensive lines, the inside linebacker position and cornerback. Age can really hit this team all at once.  Although its not likely they just have to prepare.  This is that last season where they are clearly better than the rest of the division.  They are about to transition into being more of an offensive football team than that of a defensive one.   The defense will need to be rebuilt in 2012. The Steelers have to get younger.