We’re locked in now where the rubber meets the road for NFL teams. All the promise and build up leads to this moment where plans are actualized on the field of battle and you’re rewarded with a berth in the conference championship game. In this instance, the Bills plight has morphed into Josh Allen’s career arc which needs a Super Bowl triumph to mark him as an all time great. Or do we get Sean Payton’s anointed resurrection from unfulfilled promise after his Super Bowl XLIV triumph has gathered dust on the shelf. That was nearly 16 years ago.

The question among most looking at this game is can Bo Nix make enough plays to fight off Josh Allen?? We’ll get back to this.

Bonito’s 14 sacks and Cooper with 8 have led one of the NFL’s greatest pass rushes.

The Denver defense leads the marquee having collected a team record 68 sacks, the NFL’s #2 ranking (4,730 yds allowed) and field the reigning NFLDPoY in Pat Surtain III. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and hold off this blood thirsty unit. Can they?? Well the Bills do come in with NFL rushing champion James Cook (1,621 yards/12TDs) and most forgot he ran for 121 against the Broncos in last year’s 31-7 Wildcard victory.

The matchup that will determine the game is OLB Nick Bonito vs LT Dion Dawkins. Bonito is 2nd in the NFL in ESPN’s pass rushing win rate while Buffalo’s line ranked 6th in pass blocking by PFF. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and play from a 2 TE alignment with Dalton Kincaid (39 rec. 571 yds 5tds) & Dawson Know (34 rec. 417 yds 4tds) to force Bonito to rush from further out as well as chip him when they do go out. The additional blocking aids Cook in rushing and contribute with key first down gaining receptions. The Bills will need to help Dawkins with the season on the line and have to establish Cook period.

Cook in last year’s wild card game against Denver.

One uneasy truth is the Broncos’ Bo Nix has struggled in the 2nd half of the season. He has 5 come from behind victories with the biggest the 33-32 chronicled here.

Yet when you look closely its occurred over the whole season. From that come from behind thriller over the Giants, Nix has gone 114 of 176 for 1,103 yds 9tds and 4 interceptions. His average per attempt is 6.2 yds and he has a passer rating of 89.6. Yet if you are new here I showed you how useless passer rating is and is easily manipulated with b.s. bubble screen completions.

Nix led the NFL with 612 attempts and only has thrown for 3,931 yards!?! Are you serious? In 1984 Dan Marino in 564 attempts threw for a then record 5,084 yds and 48 tds not the 25tds and 1,153 less yards. This isn’t effective as nix hasn’t passed the eyeball test over these last 5 weeks. In fact First Things First showed his position among NFL quarterbacks yesterday with this graphic:

These are not statistics of a QB that should win an AFC Divisional Playoff Game.

Can the Bills stop the run and force the game into Bo Nix’s hands? That is the question. If they can you do realize the Bills have the NFL’s 7th ranked defense only finishing 250 yards behind Denver (4,983 ot 4,730). While the Bills do not have a closer they will need someone to make 1 or 2 big plays to capture 1st half momentum.

In the end Josh Allen and the running attack needs to take control and they will. The Bills will be able to keep the Broncos pass rush at bay with sustained drives to wear them out and slow them with a short range passing attack. Not to pad stats but to move the chains and keep possession of the ball. Josh and the Bills will win this one in a slow steady approach winning 30-16 pulling away on a late touchdown.

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