Tag Archives: nfl playoffs

’25 AFC Divisional Preview: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

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This isnt Drake Maye v. CJ Stroud as much as each QB v the respective defenses they face. In last week’s round the Houston Texans pass rush with 4 in Danielle Hunter & Will Anderson tore through Pittsburgh.

They allowed Azeez Al Shaair to roam blanketing TEs inside and punish runners if they made it past the line. The colder it is go with the best defense and this #1 ranked unit will get after Drake Maye once they extinguish the running game.

Maye will have to contend with All Pro CB Derek Stingley Jr who last year sharpened his play with then teammate Stephon Diggs. Stingley & Kamari Lassiter will blanket Diggs & Boutte.  This team is looking for a shutout.

The Patriots finished 22nd in the NFL and schematically play well enough to limit CJ Stroud who is missing WR Niko Collins. However the Texans will force 3 or more turnovers to flip the field, givimg Stroud a few short fields

Momentum in football games can turn when a defender makes a thunderous hit or force a fumble or both. Just as we watched Singleton #49 yesterday for the Broncos when he tattooed James Cook of the Bills.

Drake Maye will have nerves in his first playoff game where Stroud, who had a shaky start, should be over his. The Texans need to have their pass rush rattle Maye early and keep him off balance all game. He has feasted off patsies with a weak schedule. Nervous in his first playoff game against a #1 defense is rattling…

Heading to the AFC Championship and possibly Super Bowl LX:

The Houston Texans 25- 17!

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’25 AFC Divisonal Preview: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

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We’re locked in now where the rubber meets the road for NFL teams. All the promise and build up leads to this moment where plans are actualized on the field of battle and you’re rewarded with a berth in the conference championship game. In this instance, the Bills plight has morphed into Josh Allen’s career arc which needs a Super Bowl triumph to mark him as an all time great. Or do we get Sean Payton’s anointed resurrection from unfulfilled promise after his Super Bowl XLIV triumph has gathered dust on the shelf. That was nearly 16 years ago.

The question among most looking at this game is can Bo Nix make enough plays to fight off Josh Allen?? We’ll get back to this.

Bonito’s 14 sacks and Cooper with 8 have led one of the NFL’s greatest pass rushes.

The Denver defense leads the marquee having collected a team record 68 sacks, the NFL’s #2 ranking (4,730 yds allowed) and field the reigning NFLDPoY in Pat Surtain III. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and hold off this blood thirsty unit. Can they?? Well the Bills do come in with NFL rushing champion James Cook (1,621 yards/12TDs) and most forgot he ran for 121 against the Broncos in last year’s 31-7 Wildcard victory.

The matchup that will determine the game is OLB Nick Bonito vs LT Dion Dawkins. Bonito is 2nd in the NFL in ESPN’s pass rushing win rate while Buffalo’s line ranked 6th in pass blocking by PFF. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and play from a 2 TE alignment with Dalton Kincaid (39 rec. 571 yds 5tds) & Dawson Know (34 rec. 417 yds 4tds) to force Bonito to rush from further out as well as chip him when they do go out. The additional blocking aids Cook in rushing and contribute with key first down gaining receptions. The Bills will need to help Dawkins with the season on the line and have to establish Cook period.

Cook in last year’s wild card game against Denver.

One uneasy truth is the Broncos’ Bo Nix has struggled in the 2nd half of the season. He has 5 come from behind victories with the biggest the 33-32 chronicled here.

Yet when you look closely its occurred over the whole season. From that come from behind thriller over the Giants, Nix has gone 114 of 176 for 1,103 yds 9tds and 4 interceptions. His average per attempt is 6.2 yds and he has a passer rating of 89.6. Yet if you are new here I showed you how useless passer rating is and is easily manipulated with b.s. bubble screen completions.

Nix led the NFL with 612 attempts and only has thrown for 3,931 yards!?! Are you serious? In 1984 Dan Marino in 564 attempts threw for a then record 5,084 yds and 48 tds not the 25tds and 1,153 less yards. This isn’t effective as nix hasn’t passed the eyeball test over these last 5 weeks. In fact First Things First showed his position among NFL quarterbacks yesterday with this graphic:

These are not statistics of a QB that should win an AFC Divisional Playoff Game.

Can the Bills stop the run and force the game into Bo Nix’s hands? That is the question. If they can you do realize the Bills have the NFL’s 7th ranked defense only finishing 250 yards behind Denver (4,983 ot 4,730). While the Bills do not have a closer they will need someone to make 1 or 2 big plays to capture 1st half momentum.

In the end Josh Allen and the running attack needs to take control and they will. The Bills will be able to keep the Broncos pass rush at bay with sustained drives to wear them out and slow them with a short range passing attack. Not to pad stats but to move the chains and keep possession of the ball. Josh and the Bills will win this one in a slow steady approach winning 30-16 pulling away on a late touchdown.

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The Soul Of The Game: 1986 Conference Championships

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Article reissue from 11, August 2012

When we say “The Chancellor never sleeps”, we mean there is always football on. Whether we’re talking about the Hall of Fame exhibition game between the Arizona Cardinals and the New Orleans Saints, or a former landmark game, there is always football on in the imagination. Although I’m writing a football book based upon the Super Bowls, my favorite week are those of the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

There you will find the last of the games between passionate fans of the home teams versus the sterile groups that attend the Super Bowl. The season ticket holder who has been cheering and screaming for 4 months… it leads to a contrast that can’t be matched by the corporate Super Bowl ticket holder.

86TaylorWhen the home team wins the conference championship the celebration reverberates throughout the stadium. The fans don’t want to leave and in some instances players take a victory lap long after the cameras are gone. On the other hand the silence that can overcome a stadium when the home team goes down can be deafening. It’s almost like something has gone wrong with your ears. How can 80,000 people go that silent?? Yet you remember last January how quiet it got in Candlestick Park when Lawrence Tynes kicked the New York Giants to the Super Bowl.

In 1986, the Championships were two tightly fought games. The New York Giants beat the Washington Redskins 17-0 and did so based upon good field position with a fierce wind in the first quarter. In Cleveland a defensive battle gave way to John Elway coming of age with “The Drive”. From there the Broncos, who had gained 216 total yards throughout the first 54:00 of the game, drove 98 yards to the tying score. Then won it in overtime.

These fiercely contested game made Super Bowl XXI anti-climactic. They had intensity that bordered on the Hatfields and the McCoy’s and all four defenses played terrific football that day. The two games before the Super Bowl are normally better games than the Super Bowl and my love for the conference finals started with these fiercely fought games.

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The Music City Miracle: Story of the Homerun Throwback (forward) Titans v Bills ’99 AFC Wildcard

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Reissue of painful article offered 17, June 2019

As we make our way to the NFL’s 106th season we have to take a look back at the great moments over the last century. These great games that go on to impact careers, eras, and Hall of Fame legacies take place in the NFL playoffs. At times you’ll have something momentus happen during the regular season but it’s the finality and visibility of postseason play where everyone is viewing an individual event at the same time that grow into lore.

A first playoff game for a team in a new city and stadium where the Titans had been 8-0 in the regular season. The ’99 campaign had a collegiate type spirit as the Titans finally had a home after bouncing around like nomads for 2 seasons.

Now they were going to take on the Buffalo Bills in the ’99 AFC Wildcard Game. It came with a sense of irony as you looked back at the tumultuous turn that saw the franchise’s descent from the beloved Houston Oilers to the nomadic Tennessee Oilers. It’s genesis was the ’92 AFC Wildcard game some 7 years earlier.

At the time the Oilers were nearing the end of a frustrating era in which they’re Run n Shoot offense had been the scourge of the league. Hall of Fame QB Warren Moon had put up video game numbers as he and his trio of 1,000 yard receivers in Ernest Givins, Haywood Jeffires, and the late Drew Hill torched defenses in the regular season. Yet in the postseason the football gods weren’t so kind.

Between 1987-1991 the Oilers had made the playoffs all 5 years yet never seemed to have that signature game from Warren Moon to get to an AFC Championship Game. Injuries and timely defense from their opponents seemed to undo this team in the postseason and their window for a championship run was nearing it’s end.

Moon was turning 36 and how long could he play at a high level?

The ’92 team went 10-6 and had to go to take on the 2 time AFC Champion Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park. They had beat the Bills 27-3 in the finale to set up the Wild Card tilt. In that game the Oilers knocked out Jim Kelly with a knee injury and wouldn’t have to face him in the Wildcard round.

Andre Reed scores the go ahead touchdown in the greatest comeback in NFL history.

In what should have been his signature win Moon blistered the Bills to go 19 of 22 for 4TDs and took a commanding 28-3 halftime lead. In the 2nd half the Bills turned the tables coming back from a 35-3 deficit to win 41-38 in overtime. The greatest comeback in NFL history.

The collapse was devastating and the doubt and discourse whittled away fan support as the team descended in to medicocrity over the next couple of years.

Finally Owner Bud Adams decided to move the team in 1996. He had watched Art Modell pull the plug in Cleveland & move the Browns to Baltimore the season before. Why try to win back a city that had tired of your failures when you can win anew elsewhere?? The Houston Oilers were no more and the Tennessee Oilers wandered the desert in search of a home.

They played the ’97 season in the Liberty Bowl and ’98 in Vanderbilt Stadium. Both were college arenas where they weren’t the main tenants and playing on a college campus. It didn’t have the look and feel of an NFL ball club as Eddie George and Steve McNair emerged as the team’s new stars. Then they made the decision to change the name of the team to reflect a new identity… the Tennessee Titans and would play in their own brand new stadium as Nashville became their new home.

A new energy hit Adlephia Coliseum immediately as the team was refreshed with new uniforms befitting the change. They played to raucous fans who showed an appreciation for having their own team. It never felt that way when they still had their Oilers name from their years in Texas. The team went 13-3 on the strength of Eddie George (1,304 yds / 9TDs) Steve McNair (337 yds rushing/ 8 TDs) and a smash mouth rushing offense while super rookie DE Jevon Kearse burst onto the scene with a rookie record 14.5 sacks.

The Freak was the playmaker on an aggressive physical defense and turned in the most impactful season since Lawrence Taylor in 1981. He was voted to his 1st Pro Bowl, All Pro, and took home the ’99 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. They won 7 of their last 8 including a 41-14 win over division winner Jacksonville in week 15. They were primed to make a run and 1st up in the wildcard round??

Those Buffalo Bills who were nearing the end of their run with future Hall of Famers Bruce Smith, Andre Reed, and Thurman Thomas. Jim Kelly had already left the building after ’96 and the Bills began this strange odyssey of who should be quarterbacking??

Wade Phillips had taken over for Hall of Fame Head Coach Marv Levy and by all accounts favored Doug Flutie. He brought an energy to the team and an excitement even at this advanced age. Things seemed to pick up when he would go on a long serpentine run or scramble then hit an open receiver. An excitment christened “Flutie Magic”.

Eric Moulds was the new big threat in the Bills offense after a breakout ’98 (1,368 yds rec / 9 TDs) which was only bolstered by an NFL playoff record 240 yards in a Wildcard loss to Miami. Moulds was the future yet Andre Reed was still there to provide punch in the passing game.

Antowain Smith had become the featured runner as Thurman Thomas had shown wear after a Hall of Fame career. In ’99 he was injured with a lacerated liver that allowed him to return with fresh legs late in ’99 as Smith and Jonathan Linton had worn down toward season’s end.

One thing the Bills could bank on was the league’s #1 defense as Bruce Smith, Phil Hansen, and Marcellus Wiley provided a solid pass rush.

Yet all that paled in comparison to the ultimate betrayal that haunts Buffalo to this very day.

In an attempt to get a leg up on the franchise quarterback derby the Bills signed Rob Johnson before the ’98 season. He had started one game for an injured Mark Brunell while playing for Jacksonville. The offense would sputter under his leadership as he was often sacked for holding the ball too long. This is what prompted Phillips to replace him in ’98 & Flutie beat him out and started the 1st 15 games of ’99.

With a wildcard wrapped up and unable to improve their playoff position the Bills decided to rest Doug Flutie for the finale. It looked and sounded suspicious as Rob Johnson played the finale against a playoff bound Colts team also resting their starters. Then Coach Phillips dropped a bombshell and named Johnson the starter going into the Wildcard Game.

What?!?!?!?!!? The fanbase went bonkers and blew up switchboards and talk shows all week discussed Flutie v. Rob Johnson. Why would you disrupt the teams momentum to satisfy a front office pressuring you to start the $25 milion free agent?? Facing a Defensive Rookie of the Year coming off the ball with the intensity of a young Lawrence Taylor you decide to face him with an immobile quarterback?? What could possibly go wrong??

Less than 5 minutes into a game destined to be a defensive struggle, Kearse came screaming off the corner and sacked Johnson causing him to fumble out of the endzone. Safety 2-0! The Titans received the free kick and drove for a TD on a short field making it 9-0 just 7:00 into the game. It allowed Adelphia’s rowdy fans to stay at a fevered pitch as Buffalo fought uphill the entire game. Bruce Smith, in his last playoff appearance, kept Steve McNair under wraps sacking him 2.5 times.

The Bills clawed their way back in it and found themselves down 15-13 with 1:41 to go. Johnson had the chance to be a hero. Although he completed just 8 passes going into this final drive, he knew a playoff win could be the launching pad for his career. Johnson appeared calm amid the chaos and drove Buffalo to a last second field goal and a 16-15 lead! It appeared he had done it!! On one play he escaped his nemesis, Kearse and zipped his last completion to Peerless Price, all while scrambling with just one she on.

Once Steve Christie’s kick was good the Bills sideline exploded with emotion as the team brass scrambled to make reservations to go to Indianapolis for a rematch with Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and the 13-3 upstart Colts… all they had to do was get through the final :16

It was The Immaculate Reception of the new millenium since we were in January of 2000. The parallels were there as a city was hosting it’s 1st playoff game, a last second touchdown when the home team had no hope, and a long delay where the officials had to discuss the legitamacy of the scoring play. Only this time Instant Replay was used as an officiating tool. As a Billls fan I was screaming forward lateral and did so right before writing this…

The conclusive evidence is the 4th replay as Joe Theismann, Paul Mcguire, and Mike Patrick exalts “From THAT angle…” and I tried to argue for years it was a forward lateral.

It was the end of an era as Hall of Famers Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, and Bruce Smith were let go at the end of the season. They were the last of the Bills that had played in the 4 Super Bowls at the beginning of the decade. The football gods struck back for doing Flutie dirty and benching him going into the playoffs. It was only the 2nd time in NFL history where a backup was named to start the playoffs without an injury. Only the Jets in 1986 when Pat Ryan was named to start the ’86 AFC Wildcard over Ken O’Brien after the Jets lost their last 6 games was the other occasion.

As for the Titans… they rode this incredible momentum all the way to Super Bowl XXXIV where Kevin Dyson wound up in another famous play. Mike Jones tackling him at the 1 yard line as time ran out. Over the next 8 seasons the Titans were an elite team as Eddie George and Steve McNair became household names. Kevin Dyson had a good NFL career and is now Principle of a local school in the Nashville area.

The Music City Miracle didn’t become as famous as The Immaculate Reception…however had the Titans won a Super Bowl in the years that followed, it would have.

In January of 2000 it was played on ESPN and NFL Shows the rest of the month as it was truly a great play. One for the ages for everyone that wasn’t a Bills fan. We still bristle.

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If The Bills Lose This Wildcard to Jacksonville HC Sean McDermott Will Be Fired

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You heard it here first! Yes Sean McDermott will be let go if they lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars in this weekend’s wildcard round.

The first thing that comes to mind is the Patriots have been resurrected after a 4 year slumber to snatch the AFC East from Buffalo. A proven NFL Coach in Mike Vrabel and brain trust from the Belichick regime have built a facsimile of the dyanasty whose ashes have just gone out will be around for a long time. The Bills brass will make a move just as the Ravens did realizing the current regime has underachieved in aiding their franchise quarterback with the horses to get to the Super Bowl.

They have gone as far as they could with Josh Allen and a couple guys from the local bar. The Bills need blue chip talent and can’t waste all of Allen’s career. A new offensive approach needs to be installed taking the ball out of Allen’s hands and reducing the number of hits he takes each year. I explained this fully back in November when The Chancellor offered “Has Buffalo’s Super Bowl Window Closed?” Sad to say as a Bills fan I concluded it had.

Josh your mission should you choose to accept it is to beat a rising Jaguars team that has won 7 straight or 8 of their last 9. The team from Duvall beat down the #1 seeded Denver Broncos just 3 weeks ago where we had embarrassing road losses in Miami & Atlanta. One team fired its coach (Falcons – Raheem Morris) and the Dolphins should have fired theirs.

McDermott guys are “try hard Rudy’s” in a sea of blue chip NFL talent. When Josh Hines-Allen & Travon Walker come off the corner this weekend. I pray we have worked on half roll plays and work in some runs with Allen as its imperative to get off to a big 1st half lead…. If we don’t there will be a coaching change as the Bills will realize we have wasted a significant prime of Josh Allen’s career.

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Thoughts On The Ravens Firing John Harbaugh

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John Harbaugh being let go needed to happen as his message had become stale in the locker room. Beyond that you can’t waste the career of a franchise quarterback in the prime of his career when you have Super Bowl aspirations. Even The Chancellor had them picked to appear in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara.

Lamar Jackson isn’t innocent in any of this as his playoff performances have been skittish and incomplete. He has been 3-5 in the playoffs and has yet to play a complete game. Jackson supporters point to last year’s playoff loss in Buffalo blaming TE Mark Andrews’ 2 point conversion dropped pass but omit Jackson’s 5 of 9 103 yds and an interception falling behind 21-10 at the half.

What about the 2023 AFC Championship when he came out hot but fell in a rut while Patrick Mahomes built a 17-7 lead? As a #1 seed with homefield advantage and the #1 defense, their star QB went 5 of 12 for 67 yards and 1 TD in the 1st half. The worm started to turn in many circles as ’23 mirrored ’19 where the defense had been dominant but Jackson and the homefield throughout Ravens fell 28-12 in the divisional to the Tennesee Titans. You don’t want the stats and Jackson didn’t get the Ravens a touchdown until 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter. What went wrong??

In my original series Shameful Impatience With Black Quarterbacks, one of the warnings I gave when Lamar Jackson was coming to the NFL was this: “One is the lack of commitment to fully developing black qbs to be more than an offensive anomaly for a few years.” In this instance they didnt but under the guise of hiring 4 different offensive coordinators in 5 years, they ran practically the same offense – Read Option run first from the Pistol. What I meant originally and expanded on elsewhere is the coaching to bring the QB out of the running stage of his career into one where he passes more as the years went on. The specificity of pass play dynamics from under center on time to intermediate routes. This was Harbaugh’s failing.

Keep in mind my article was right before the 2018 NFL Draft when the Ravens selected Jackson.

Also from Shameful Impatience  “Its on the offensive coaches to gradually mature these scramblers into pocket quarterbacks. Landry did it with Roger Staubach and Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren did this with Steve Young. It takes years… it takes commitment.” I reminded you that Buddy Ryan brought in BYU passing guru Doug Scovil to coach the passing game to a young raw Randall Cunningham in the mid 80s.

They leaned as much for Lamar to “use his legs” at 29 years of age as he had at 21 years of age and the punishment is catching up with him. He has missed 17 games over the last seven years due to the blows he takes. Think back to Steve Young in 1987 with the 49ers, he was scrambling while learning The West Coast Offense out in San Francisco. Fast forward 7 seasons and in 1994 he was winning his 3rd straight passing crown and taking the 49ers to Super Bowl XXIX. There he carved the Chargers up for a record 6TDs to win the game. Throwing from the pocket… if you don’t remember click here.

Harbaugh is the Head Coach and should have told his OC I want to utilize Jackson running more back in that ’23 AFC Championship since he came out cold throwing. He didn’t… He never adjusted to an OC that didn’t run the same college plays that don’t bode well in the NFL playoffs nor teach Lamar an offensive approach allowing for audibles to a more sophisticated pass play when he needed to. There were times he needed to tell OC Todd Munken to get Derrick Henry in the game and stop going with lesser running backs. Asert yourself as the Head Coach and override your OC trying to show how much of a genius he is. Especially when its your ass on the line for winning and losing these big games.

In the NFL you can’t waste the prime of a franchise quarterback and Jackson just finished his 8th year and just turned 29 years old today! His 29th birthday and here we are he hasn’t been submerged in a true NFL passing attack. He should be much further along and has maybe another 3 years playing in the style he’s accustomed to. The Ravens need to bring in a real offensive approach with their next move whether a defensive coach and an OC who can teach true QB play. They don’t need to bring in one of these Madden Coaches who doesn’t understand the importance of full dimensional football which includes a Derrick Henry in the attack.

They had a good run with Jackson being named MVP on 2 occassions but they need a change to prolong Jackson’s tenure as a franchise quarterback and reach the Super Bowl. They have to get him under center and teach the full nuance of playing NFL quarterback and get him out of these garbage read option college plays. If they don’t he will never beat a sophisticated defense in an AFC Championship Game.

Jonn Harbaugh will go on and coach again in the NFL but he needs to reboot with a team playing more traditional offense. With this marriage it was just time.

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