Tag Archives: NFL Predictions

2011 Minnesota Vikings Preview

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New Head Coach Leslie Frazier

When a team reaches a championship game, in many instances the team doesn’t recognize all that transpired to propel them there.  So when they come up short you’ll hear the tried and true axioms being thrown around: “Wait ’til next year.” “We’ll learn from this lesson and come back stronger.” etc…etc That is not how the sporting landscape is shaped.  Other teams are developing specific player match-ups that may not have gone in their favor this year yet will do so in the following season.  Some teams had injuries at critical times where your team didn’t suffer such setbacks. Draft picks and free agents are signed by your divisional brethren in an attempt to tilt the player match-ups in their favor if they don’t have those talents already on the roster.  While at the same time the team that was on top tries to match what they did the season before. The teams that fall hard are those that dont’ counter opponents personnel and strategic changes and think they can beat those teams again.  Especially when they disregard age at key positions. This was the plight of the 2010 Minnesota Vikings and the failures cost Coach Childress his job at mid-season.  Where do they go from here?

Enter new Head Coach Leslie Frazier.  Frazier should realize that he has to run the football more effectively to take pressure off of an aging defensive front. He has the horses in Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart to do it and since he is a former defensive coach, seems like a good strategic start.  He brought in former teammate and 49er Head Coach Mike Singletary to aid with teaching his linebackers and to be a sounding board for gameday decisions. How do we know this? He made Singletary assistant head coach.   The first thing is the Vikings need to learn who they are where under Childress they lost their way.  Too often in the modern NFL, offensive co-ordinators who become head coaches want to take to the air to prove their genius to the sports writing pundits instead of doing what is best for their team.  Subsequently you put your team into a series of 3 and outs or interceptions and your aging, tiring defense has to be on the field 2-3 more times in a half.  Frazier needs to reverse this immediately to be successful. The first thing to watch out for.

Will Tavaris Jackson be back in ’11?

Quarterback: Alright it’s time to move on from the Brett Favre experiment.  The timing of his signing was great two years ago but the shelf life for this product ran out last year and ….wait …Who is throwing the football in Mississippi?  Nope, just kidding. Favre Watch is over and the Vikings have moved on and drafted QB Christian Ponder for their future and have Tavaris Jackson who should be the starter this year if they resign him. http://www.vikingsgab.com/2011/03/02/vikings-plan-no-tender-offer-for-tavaris-jackson/  Going into his 6th season, this should be his make or break year.  Last year, in a move that we didn’t support, the Vikings released Sage Rosenfels to keep Jackson as the number 2.  Looking back that was actually a good move because he didn’t fit what they were trying to do last year (multiple receiver sets & throwing 40 times) to one that should benefit his talents in a more run heavy attack this year.  Also the Vikings have to stand behind their young quarterback so he doesn’t feel like he’ll get yanked or too dressed down when any mistakes are made.  He is going to have to be a leader on this team and its up to the coaching staff to help him get there.

Jackson has a strong arm and can move effortlessly with the football.  He’s a stronger, faster version of Mark Sanchez. Use the running game and get him into the game with rhythm throws from a play action standpoint. If they continue to run that stretch play to Peterson, the first counter to that is the play action boot off that motion. This will keep the opposing defensive line from tearing up the field, hold the linebackers who will check to see if Peterson has the ball, and open up gaps 10-15 yards down field to get the ball to Shiancoe, Rice, or Harvin. Another key would be to borrow an old Hank Stram ploy that the Patriots used against Julius Peppers in Super bowl XXXVIII, and roll him out often so the rush can’t tee off on him at any time. This way if he has to take off with the football he’s in motion and can accelerate from there. Or the offside linebacker(s) that is sliding with him maintaining zone discipline open up those routes to the TE and RBs. Go with a steady passing tree early in the season from 2RB, 2WR, 1TE sets, and 3 WR, 2RB sets and this would set him up for success.

These strategies would be the best to implement because if he goes down or is replaced, its an easier passing tree for a young Christian Ponder to step in and achieve some success. Another is you’ll back teams out of blitzing your quarterbacks. This is not a dumbing down of the offense. Keep in mind, passing out of traditional sets is when Tom Brady won his 3 Super Bowl rings, same with Kurt Warner in St. Louis in ’99. Its when these teams were lined up in 4 receiver sets 40% of the time is when they lost. Ask Coach Childress, who kept missing that point last year…then tried to blame Favre…yet I digress.  This is how the aforementioned Sanchez has been successful early on and the same to be said for Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan down in Atlanta. The play action pass is the best weapon in football. Defensive coaches and players know this….if Frazier holds true to form, quarterback is average for now.

Peterson putting in work

Offensive Backfield: Lets think about this for a second….really give this some introspective thought. One back holds the NFL record for rushing for 296 yards in a game and has averaged 4.8 yards per carry, while rushing for 5,782 yards and 52TDs in 4 years. The other should have won the Heisman Trophy his senior season when he ran for over 1,700 yards and last year as a rookie averaged 4.0 yards per carry spelling the first guy.  They have a new quarterback that will be under center too.  Still  thinking over here…hmmmm what should they do?

Aha!! How about running the football!! If we fused Eric Dickerson with Walter Payton you’d have Adrian Peterson.  He’s a violent runner who punishes tacklers yet can break the big one with his speed. His longest run last year was an 80 yard touchdown. The best part of the last two years is with all the passing, they saved him some wear and tear.  Even on a pass first team he ran 283 times for 1,298 yards and 12TDs in a supporting role while going to his 4th Pro Bowl. Like Dickerson he has a reputation for fumbling, yet last year he only fumbled once.  The game needs to be geared through this talent. If the Vikings knuckle up and come off the ball he could rush for 2,000 in a season. Run out of traditional sets to have more players at or among the line of scrimmage so when he breaks it, he’s gone. It was once said that if you take a TE off the field, the defense removes a LB. Remove a FB and the defense adds a dime back. This removes 17% of body mass from the line of scrimmage so when your back breaks into the open, there are defenders off the line of scrimmage to cut him off and force fumbles coming in from multiple angles. Thats how Barry Sanders was caught from behind many times and Ernest Byner had “The Fumble” in ’87.  So get the defense up near the line of scrimmage and then pop him through it.

As for Gerhart, he came into his rookie season quietly and ran tough. He is a hard nosed runner and at 234 lbs., he fell forward at the end of many of his runs in the style of a John Riggins. He ran 81 times for 322 yards and 1 TD while showing decent hands, catching 21 passes for 167 yards.  The Vikings may want to have a few drives per game that are his to punish and wear down the defense so Peterson gets strategic rests and can break the long one on a tiring defense.  It might be in their best interest to run some 2 halfback plays as well. This has to be the engine that powers the Vikings in 2011, and their so well suited to do so.  With two thumpers in the backfield, get away from the slick ’em and just get into some sic ’em!! Run right at your opponent with these guys…Super Bowl quality at the running back spot in the Twin Cities.

Receivers: The Vikings missed Sidney Rice last year.  The 11 games missed was one of the main reasons the season got away from them.  In his absence, 3rd down receiver Percy Harvin picked up the slack from a first down production standpoint. Harvin caught 71 passes for 868 yards and 5 TDs and many of the 5 yard dumpoff variety.  He would make that first guy miss and pick up the first down and did so 41 times last year. Especially once Rice was injured and defenses crept up on a team devoid of deep threats. He became more invaluable in the passing game or they may have lost even more games. Still more of a 3rd down back / slot receiver.

Before Vikings brass decided to shelve him for the season, Sidney Rice caught 17 for 280 yards and 2 TDs. It was his loss that doomed last season. The Vikings tried every stopgap measure including bringing back Randy Moss for a few weeks to offset his absence. Coming off his breakout 2009, he’s just entering his prime and could return to the 80 catch 1,200 yard club (83 for 1312 in ’09) with defenses moving more 8 in the box to stop Peterson.

To free him from double teams they need someone to emerge on the other side. Don’t think they have done enough for that.  They drafted a big possession receiver with 7th round pick Stephen Burton. Really?? This would have Harvin and TE Visante Shiancoe’s (47rec. for 530yds) intermediate routes further crowded if he’s on the field with them. This may be where a veteran like Hank Baskett could get the nod and solidify this receiving unit. Have to stretch the field a little more.  Otherwise obvious passing situations will turn into throwaways and punts. Receiver is average in Minnesota unless they get their “other” wideout downfield.

LT Bryant McKinnie from The U

Offensive Line: Did we say something about running the football before? Geez, before we get into this, think back to last year and how many Brett Favre flashbacks sandwiched between defensive linemen come to mind? Like Green Bay early last year this team was allowing too many sacks with 36 compared to the Packer’s 38. They ranked 18th and 19th respectively yet the difference between the Vikings season coming to an abrupt halt to where their rivals went on to achieve greatness is where Viking quarterbacks were hit 87 times to the Packers 67.  Those subsequent 20 hits knocked Favre into retirement, Jackson out for a few weeks and had Joe Webb thrown to the wolves in the latter part of the season. Thats terrible…you do realize that getting your quarterback hit 87 times not only ranked 24th but should get everyone fired.

Until you realize what this group could do going forward. This unit pushed other teams off the ball to the tune of 1,942 yards, a lofty 4.4 yards per carry average and 16TDs. These are NFL rankings of 10th, 8th, and 7th respectively and you wonder why we are imploring the Vikings to run the football. This was with LG Steve Hutchinson missing 5 games last year. Those numbers could go up to top five in all categories with a commitment to running the football behind these guys.  Bryant McKinney (The U) is his running mate at tackle on the left side. However the Vikings did take two 6th round OL picks to help solidify the RG spot that was manned by Anthony Herrera and Ryan Cook last year.  Its the same for young offensive linemen as it is for young running backs, just run right at your opponent and you don’t have to overthink.  Offensive line is average because of their inability to keep the heat off their quarterback. If they keep Jackson and utilize his mobility this ranking will be much higher.

Pat and Kevin Williams make up over 700lbs of defensive tackle for the Vikes.

Defensive Line: For several years its been “The Williams Show” upfront with Pat and Kevin manning the defensive tackle spots. However age is catching up to 38 year old Pat Williams and soon the Vikings may need to find Kevin a new running mate.  These guys eat up blockers and allow the linebackers to make tackles and Ends Jared Allen and Ray Edwards to chalk up sacks with 11 and 8 respectively.  The pass rush would be able to pin their ears back if they could play with a few more leads.  However this line was the impetus to the NFL’s 8th best defense.  Even though the defense is giving a little more ground the Vikings ranked 9th against the run and 10th against the pass.

They drafted a defensive tackle Christian Ballard, from the Iowa Hawkeyes with their 4th round selection. This should help with in keeping each Williams fresh throughout the season since they have a median age of 34 between them. At DE they are a little bit fresher and younger.  The Chiefs should still be kicking themselves for letting RDE Jared Allen get away. Last year was the first time in 4 years that Allen was not an All Pro or Pro Bowl performer. His sack total of 11 is 4 shy of the 15 sacks he’d been averaging over those same 4 years. His effectiveness will increase if he’s able to play with a lead.  After a second season of 8 or more sacks by Ray Edwards, this team is primed to have their bests sack totals since the  ’89 Vikings of Keith Millard & Chris Doleman fame. With both DEs under 30 years of age there is a lot of life left among this front four.  This defensive line is Super Bowl quality if this team plays to its strengths.  If they do as they did last year this is a playoff grade at least.

E.J. Henderson

Linebackers: In any 4-3 defense, its the defensive line’s job to keep blockers off of the linebackers and they did so to the tune of Chad Greenway leading the team with 144 tackles. Job well done to the Williams’ boys. Pro Bowl MLB E.J. Henderson was 2nd on the team with 100 tackles yet displayed more range producing 3 interceptions and forced 1 fumble. Going into his ninth season, Henderson is finally getting recognition for being one of the best at his position and can also supplement the front four with an occasional blitz. He had one sack last year but tallied as many as 4.5 back in 2007.

Ben Leber rounds out this linebacking corps that really doesn’t have a weakness. The one thing they could do more of is force turnovers but upon further review, this group combined to force 4 fumbles, gathered in 4 interceptions, and recording 3 fumble recoveries betwen them.  This group is active and instinctive. Leber’s 45 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and an interception seem to be decent numbers until you realize that he missed all of six games. Yikes!!  Greenway has really come into his own as a former 7th round selection and the Vikings hope to strike gold like that again in drafting Ross Homan in the 6th round from Ohio St. With Henderson and Leber’s ages starting to creep up on them, a developing linebacker within the team is a sound move. Linebackers are playoff quality.

Antoine Winfield from Ohio St.

Secondary:  This defense is starting to age and show some wear and tear.  The tear came in the form of CB Cedric Griffin’s knee during the 4th quarter of the 2009 NFC Championship Game.  He was slow to recover and only appeared in 2 games during 2010 and had 7 tackles. Hopefully he can return with full range of his knee in 2012 and reclaim his starting role.  He should have one to empathize with him in Head Coach Leslie Frazier. Frazier’s CB career came to an end with a knee injury running a punt return reverse in Super Bowl XX. The wear has come in the form of Pro Bowl CB Antoine Winfield who was dinged up toward the end of the year.  He did record 89 tackles, 2 sacks, and nabbed 2 interceptions. However various injuries have started to mount on his 34 year old body and the Vikings may need to look at replacing him within a year.  His style is physical and it would be hard for him to change that.

Asher Allen filled in at one of the cornerback spots and had a solid year.  He had 53 tackles, 2 interceptions and defensed 7 passes.  However he’s not the most physical cornerback and he is better suited to be a nickel back just like reserve CB Lito Sheppard. However help is on the way in the form of Brad Burton out of Utah with the Vikings 5th round pick and  Mistral Raymond in the 6th. These youngsters should be able to bolster the special teams in the least yet if one proves to be a more solid player who can crash the roster like a Chad Greenway? Hmmm.

At safety the pairing of Williams and Abdullah was a solid one from a tackling standpoint with their ranking 4th and 5th on the team in tackles with 74 and 71. Great they want to tackle but 1 interception and only 2 passes defensed for your FS in Williams is a weak count no matter how you slice it. That’s playing too much predictable cover 2 and they have to take chances from time to time and force more turnovers. He was only in on 3 passing plays over the season? I almost did that from the couch. SS was a little more active with 7 passes defensed and 3 interceptions by Abdullah.  Without question I would start a game against the Vikings in a double slot formation and run double posts on Madieu Williams 5 times and I bet we’d score on 3 of them. This is the Vikings weakest link and he has to respond to the ball better than that.  He has a good pass rush in front of him. What is he waiting for?  Secondary is above average with a mark against the free safety

Overall: This team has obvious strengths to play to and why they didn’t you can easily see how Childress was let go last year.  Most offensive co-ordinators turned head coach can’t wait to be called genius by virtue of their play calling.  Once Favre was in tow, the Vikings forgot to look at the rest of their personnel and see what they were built for. Jared Allen is a beast when you’re up 10 and he can rush the passer, not so when you’re down 10 and the opponent is running the ball at him. Catch our drift?  Can this team get back to the playoffs in 2010? They have to have several things bounce their way including injuries to catch Green Bay or Chicago in the division. Deficiencies at quarterback could be their ultimate downfall, if they throw in rookie QB Ponder in the season will be one of growing pains and 6 wins is all they can get.  With a Tavaris Jackson in there they can get that total up to 9. So this team should miss the playoffs but if they get a few lucky bounces…

2011 Dallas Cowboys Preview

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For the Dallas Cowboys, 2009 began with the optimistic view of becoming the first team in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl on their own home field. The reality was that their roster wasn’t dynamic enough to fulfill these expectations and they hadn’t adequately replaced Flozell Adams who had departed at Left Tackle.  Subsequently Tony Romo ran for his life until an injury finished his season. Although the Cowboys won 5 of 8 games to finish the season, it makes you wonder how close are they really?  Are they a few players away as Jerry Jones and company would like to make us think?  Was the improvement shown toward the end of the season a product of Jason Garrett’s coaching or from the fire lit under everyone’s ass when they learned they were all expendable??

Tony Romo

Quarterback: Going into his fifth season as the starter, the Cowboys have a good quarterback in Tony Romo.  So much is made of what he does off the field that many Cowboys fans don’t recognize he owns all the significant passing records in team history. He’s thrown for twice as many 300 yard passing games as Troy Aikman.  Get this: In 2009 he threw for 4,483 yards and 29 TDs, had he not thrown for 36TDs in 2007, those would have both been Cowboy records as well.  He has a good arm and can deliver the football from the pocket or on the run.  His dropback is fluid and he moves effortlessly when he escapes the pocket.  Also he needs to show more daring, when its 3rd and 10, throw to the second level and get the first down and not some 3 yard dump off that achieves nothing. Physically he has the tools to be a great quarterback.

Psychologically, Romo hasn’t shown to be the inspirational leader that the Cowboys hoped he’d be once they released Terrell Owens.  He hasn’t dropped his “aw shucks” persona and taken on that of a field general. The type of generalship that Jon “Cockroach” Kitna showed in those last 8 games. You saw him pleading, cajoling and getting in teammates faces, especially after dumb penalties, and played ball from his gut. Last year he completed 209 of 318 passes for 2,365 yards, 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Kitna’s 65.7% completion rating was the best of his 14 year career.  Project those numbers over a year and thats a Pro Bowl season. The best he’s ever played and a solid backup.

The best way to get to Romo is to come with delayed blitzes. When he senses the outside rush coming, he’s quick to step up through the gaps looking for space to run or throw. In self scouting you can see the Cowboys are aware of this and they run a lot of draws and delays to the running backs to make it all look the same.  Keep defensive ends from coming up the field too quick and opening those gaps between themselves and the inside rushers. Another thing is to keep putting hits on him, there are times Romo will look down at the rush if hit or sacked early. Its yet to be seen if his game changes any coming back from a broken clavicle. Will he be willing to take those hits??However, Dallas is very good at quarterback.

Offensive Backfield: Dallas has the best set of 3rd down backs in the league in Tashard Choice and Felix Jones. The problem is what to do on 1st and 2nd down. Early last year an astute Cowboy fan, Gary Bumgarner, suggested that Marion Barber had really slowed down.  The eyeball test didn’t lie. Amazingly over the last 3 years Barber has only averaged over 4.0 yards per rush (league avg.) in only one season. Last season he ran for a paltry 374 yards while scoring 4 TDs.  Surprisingly he has not run for more than 1,000 yards at any point of his career.  He has run hard, with heart and great determination, but he seems to be this generations Wilbert Montgomery and has beaten the ability from his body early.  Along with his high salary and the drafting of DeMarco Murray, we at Taylor Blitz Times think he will be cut before the season.

Felix Jones had his best season while taking over for Barber.  He rushed for 800 yards on 185 carries but only scored 1 touchdown.  His average per carry was good (4.3 yrd avg) but his touchdown total tells the story.  He and Choice are space players, neither have the heft to knuckle up and get that 3rd and 2 or power in from the two like Barber could.  Since Felix Jones is supposed to be a homerun hitter, he should have been able to break an arm tackle and take it the distance 4 or 5 times last year wouldn’t you think? Or at least in space, right? Well, out of the backfield Jones had 48 rec. for 450 yards and again only 1 TD.  Thats 233 touches of the football and only 2 TDs for a breakaway threat?

Choice seemed like the odd man out last year, carrying the ball only 66 times for 243 yards and 3 TDs. At 5’11 and 212 lbs, Choice should be the starter with Jones as the 3rd down back. Can Choice take the pounding? He did run for 100 yards in a week 13 win over the Colts in a 38-35 overtime thriller. Yet between Choice, Jones or 3rd round pick DeMarco Murray none seem to thrive running between the tackles. So if Marion “The Barbarian” gets released who is going to run the football in goal line and closing situations? Running back is below average for the Cowboys until someone emerges and the pick of Murray was a puzzling one for us.

Receivers: This is where the Cowboys are in the best shape of any unit. Once the Cowboys were out of contention they started to put Dez Bryant in different situations to see what he could do. Bryant came in as a rookie and played with fire and flair, who knew at 6’2 225lbs he would be a good kick returner? He averaged 24.4 yards on 12 kickoff returns and a whopping 14.3 on punt returns, taking 2 back for touchdowns on only 15 attempts. Do you realize projected over a complete season those would be NFL leading numbers in both categories? Throw in his 45 receptions for 561 yards and 6 touchdowns and what do you have? The bench for a certain Roy E. Williams. Look some players just have the it factor and this kid is it.  He plays like he wants it and if I were Jason Garrett I’d sick him on defenses 15 times per game. He’s tall, muscular, fast and can jump. The first of many Pro Bowls should come this year with his first 1,000 yard season. Don’t be surprised if he goes over 80 catches for 1,300 yards and 12-15TDs. Terrell Owens has finally been replaced.

How can we be so high on Bryant? Well the first part of that equation is his skill set and the second is he’s teamed with Pro Bowlers Jason Witten (94 rec. 1,002 yds 9 TDs), and Miles Austin (69 rec. 1,041 yds 7TDs). Yikes! This is not going to be easy for anybody to defend. Witten is the best tight end in football. A solid blocker who at TE has the heft to muscle safeties and the speed to get over back pedaling linebackers.  Thats two straight years with 94 receptions and with another season like that will have crossed 715 receptions in his career. Guess what? The all time reception record for tight ends is within reach. He was a Pro Bowler for the 7th time and was first team All Pro for the second.

Which brings us to little Miles Austin. Of course we’re kidding here but at 6’3, 215lbs. he is the smallest of the two receivers. So coming up and jamming these guys is going to be difficult. Austin didn’t have quite the year he had in his breakout 2009 campaign but he had to deal with teams really game planning and paying attention to him and had to work with backup Jon Kitna at quarterback. Still he crossed 1,000 yards and made the Pro Bowl a second time. Reminds me of Andre Reed the way he runs after the catch and unlike many receivers you can’t arm tackle him. With Austin, the hope is he keeps playing with that chip on his shoulder. The practice squad guy who finally made good and not fall into that celebrity dating nonsense to get his mind off of football.

What? Oh Roy Williams with an “E” could work out as a really good third receiver to help stretch for first downs.  Are you seeing what we’re seeing? This is shaping up to be one of the best receiving corps since the 2007 Patriots. We already told you the Cowboys have a good quarterback who owns the 2 highest touchdown marks passing in Cowboys history at 36 and 29. If Romo comes back healthy… Lets just say that at WR & TE, this is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Offensive Line: Where the Cowboys did their best work on draft day.  They brought in T Tyron Smith out of USC with their 1st round selection, then snagged G David Arkin of Missouri St. This offensive line did benefit early on with Tony Romo scrambling. That kept the sack totals down yet they did surrender 31 which was 11th best.  It was the 73 hits, 17th allowed, that is unacceptable and sidelined their quarterback for the year. Although they were 16th in rushing with a 1,786 yards in 2010, the Cowboys struggled to push when they needed to.  Critical 3rd and 2 power plays saw the marginal success of 59  1st downs up the middle and only 44 times to the strong side which ranked 23rd and 25th respectively. Terrible.  What is surprising is that C Andre Gurode was a Pro Bowl selection in 2010.

The Cowboys drafted Smith #1 for him to go into the lineup. They may have finally replaced Flozell Adams if he can beat out incumbent Doug Free at LT. Arkin or 7th round pick  C Bill Nagy should push to make both guard spots. Too much improvement is needed at the guard spot for at least one of these rookies to get into the starting lineup. Most likely would be Larkin.  By addressing their offensive line in the draft and watching the Packers win the Super Bowl with several young linemen, they should be influenced to go young and live with the consequences.  They worked their way up to average with a chance to be good on the offensive front.

Defensive Line: This team needs to pick up a few free agents to solidify themselves on the defensive front. Defensive ends Igor Olshansky, Marcus Spears, and Stephen Bowen combined for 1.5 sacks in 2010. Before you say ‘well they are there to tie up blockers and not give ground in the Cowboy 3-4’, they were 12th in the NFL against the run and gave up over 4.3 yards per rush, which ranked 17th.  Thank goodness Jay Ratliff had a Pro Bowl year by not giving up too much ground in the middle or this defense could have finished dead last in all of football. Seriously. Ratliff provided the only push from this unit recording 3.5 sacks where opposing lines could concentrate on him. He needs help. Not signing any defensive help yet, we have tho give the Cowboys a below average grade here.

All Pro OLB DeMarcus Ware

Linebacker: This defense begins and ends with DeMarcus Ware, NFL sack champion for 2010.  His 15.5 sacks was the only consistent element on the defensive side of the football for the Cowboys. He’s simply a beast and its imperative that they get some pressure generated elsewhere and he may have a shot at the single season sack record.  However at times it seems that he can disappear in games yet its a misnomer. Teams game plan for him and are sometimes successful.  Imagine what he could do with a bookend to relieve him of some of the double and triple teams? With all this attention he still has been the All Pro (3 times) and Pro Bowl (5 times) performer out of Troy that Bill Parcells envisioned. He’s the best outside linebacker in the NFC.

Toward the end of the season Anthony Spencer started making some plays and was the most improved defender on the team. He amassed 63 total tackles, had 5 sacks and forced 2 fumbles. Bradie James and Keith Brooking  manned the inside linebacking spots. James led the Cowboys with 118 tackles, had 2 forced fumbles and 1 interception. A solid performance.  Brooking has proven to be the team’s inspirational leader and was second on the team with 97 tackles and had 1 interception. A player that made a splash in 2010 was linebacker Sean Lee, especially against the Colts and Peyton Manning.  He picked him off twice and had a pick six in that game while making several splash plays against the pass and the run.  He finished the season with 25 total tackles in a relief role and those 2 interceptions with 1 forced fumble.  If James or Brooking go down during the season this kid can fill in without a drop off. The linebacker play in Dallas is well above average.  They need the line to keep blockers off of them better.

Secondary: At first glance you want to lambast this secondary for the dismal 26th ranking against the pass yet this is a two fold issue. If the secondary was so bad why did they snatch 17 of the team’s 20 interceptions?? Sure there is some improvement needed at the corner position where Mike Jenkins has regressed from his play a few seasons back and tallied only1 interception. He has to improve, no make that he better improve http://bleacherreport.com/articles/686084-dallas-cowboys-2011-draft-report-card-grades-for-all-eight-draft-picks has high regard for 5th round draft pick Josh Thomas from the University of Buffalo. He will push both Jenkins and Newman (whom Cowboy fans have wanted replaced for 100 years now) for a starting spot.  We say that because its going to be hard to move Orlando Scandrick.  He was very effective as a blitzer and a nickel back.  He made 2.5 sacks, 45 total tackles with 8 passes defensed, nearly matching  Jenkins production of 55 tackles, 9 passes defensed with a single interception.

At safety Gerald Sensabaugh led the team with 5 interceptions, tied with Newman for the team lead.  He seems a little stiff in his backpedal but that is normally the case with most strong safeties.  Free safety is where we and other pundits feel the Cowboys can improve their secondary’s skill set.  Watch out for possibly a Darren Sharper signing to put more moxie into their secondary if he comes available.  Incumbent starter Alan Ball only defensed 4 passes and had just 1 interception.  He had plenty of opportunities while team’s racked up 3,894 yards passing last year.  A little more pass rush and this secondary would be decent.  Without it and we have to say slightly below average.  If Ball starts playing with instinct and can be more of a factor against the pass they can rate as good.  Right now have to stay with the present ranking.

Overall: Upon further review, the Cowboys don’t really want to run. Not in the traditional sense and the drafting of another space back is evidence of this.  They are going to throw the football and run off of draws and screens. What rugged NFC East?? With the New York Giants and definitely with the Philadelphia Eagles taking more to the air, Dallas is going to be throwing out of 3 receiver sets heavily.  Expect every passing record in team history to fall in Dallas this year.

Romo should throw for nearly 40 TDs this year if they stay as they are with the running back personnel. The problem is: Did they do enough on defense to improve on their overall ranking of 17th??  Taylor Blitz Times doesn’t think so and Dallas is going to be involved in shootouts and will win most of them.  The best they can expect is a 10-6 season where they will be fighting for a wildcard playoff berth.

They are too deficient on the defensive line to improve dramatically against the run and in goal line. Garrett is going to take to the air and Jerry World will look like the Transworld Dome of the Rams in ’99. Ask yourself this one fundamental question… You are the defensive co-ordinator facing Dallas on a 3rd and 7. They come out with a three receiver set: an explosive Antonio Bryant, a Pro Bowl Miles Austin who excels after the catch, an All Pro TE in Witten, with a 6’4 Roy E. Williams next to him, and Choice in the backfield. Who are you going to gear toward??  Points will ring up in Dallas…count on it.  Playoffs?? Hmmmm??

2011 Kansas City Chiefs Preview

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What produces a good team?  Is it based upon the accumulation of top shelf talent or can you coach a lesser talented team with top shelf coaching?  Head Coach Todd Haley put together a staff with 3 former head coaches with multiple Super Bowl rings from the 00’s Patriots and 1980s New York Giants. Did you know that current defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has 5 Super Bowl rings?  Yet is overlooked when it comes to credit in formulating defensive gameplans and getting the most out of moderate talent.

The Chiefs lost Charlie Weiss, who went back to the college ranks with the Florida Gators.  Yet the offense he leaves behind was the sparkplug that powered this team to a 10-6 record and the AFC West Divisional Crown.  Haley, who was the former offensive coordinator for the 2008 NFC Champion Cardinals, should have more of a hand in the play calling.  Can the Chiefs improve on the rapid rise and improvement shown in 2010?  Has the talent on this team developed enough to take the next step?

Quarterback: Time to enter the confessional: How many of you were thinking Matt Cassel was the second coming of Scott Mitchell or Rob Johnson? Quarterbacks who filled in for an injured starter, played well, parlayed it into a big free agent contract, then faltered with his new team. Well after a lukewarm 2009 in which Cassel tossed 16 TDs and 16 interceptions, he improved dramatically in his single season under Weiss. Cassel tossed 27 TDs with only 7 interceptions while moving his passer rating to a respectable 8th in the NFL. His improvement from 69.9 in 2009, to 93 was the best turnaround in all of pro football.

These numbers even top his 2008 campaign when he filled in for Tom Brady and led the Patriots to a surprising 11-5 season, which included a 5 game winning streak to conclude the season. Going into his 7th season,, he is entering his prime as a signal caller. One way to get to Cassel is to rush him from his front side.  He seems to throw the ball away or pull it down prematurely at times when he has a split second to complete the throw.  Even though he’s intelligent enough to know when to throw it away, this contributed to his ranking of 18th in passing yards per attempt (6.9yd avg.) along with his dumpoffs. He’s a little quick to move his feet from a throwing position.  So time your front side overload blitzes and jump his short routes when you do.  The Ravens were affective with this in last year’s wildcard playoff loss. Otherwise he can play action pass the Chiefs to efficient drives and to narrow wins. Arrowhead stadium has its most effective quarterback since Len Dawson and quarterback is good in Kansas City.

Offensive Backfield:  This team is set at running back with the continued development of Jamaal Charles. Entering his 4th season he is averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry over 3 seasons. His 1,467 yards last year was 2nd in the NFL while snaring 45 receptions for another 468 yards, scoring 8 times overall. His yards per reception average of 10.4 shows you can’t discount Charles in the passing game.  You had better bring some healthy, in shape linebackers to  play Kansas City or you might be in for a long day. At 5’11 199 lbs., it was thought by some that Charles may not be tough enough between the tackles, coming into the NFL.  Last year showed his 1,100 yard season in 2009 was no fluke. He started only 5 games last year and the Chiefs are doing the right thing playing him with 2 backs sharing the workload otherwise Charles might break down.  This keeps Charles fresh and allows him to break big plays once the Chiefs opponents start to wear down. Many good years ahead for this talent from Texas.

One thing we can’t come to grips with at the Taylor Blitz Times is why teams have let Thomas Jones go when he has been so productive? The last two stops he was let go by teams fearing he’d get old on them and not perform which is nuts if you see this guy out of uniform.  In his last year with the Bears in 2006, he led the Bears to the Super Bowl rushing for 1,210 yards. He even ran for 112 yards in Super Bowl XLI, which was the first time since Thurman Thomas in Super Bowl XXV to do so. In his last year with the Jets in 2009, he rushed for 1,402  yards and 14 TDs, leading the Jets to the AFC Championship game.  Then released after those two years?? Are you kiddin’ me? Its no coincidence that Jones physical running style embodied the attitude of his team’s offense on a 3rd successive team that made the playoffs.  Last year was the first time in 6 years Jones didn’t cross the 1,000 yard threshold finishing with 896.

First glance at his 3.7 yard average per rush, you’d think he was slowing down when in reality he carried the ball in all obvious running situations.  The Chiefs may benefit themselves by not telegraphing that they are always going to run when Jones is on the field.  Make no mistake that Jones is in the twilight of his career. Yet this is an extreme physical specimen who keeps himself in great shape with a body weight lifters could be proud of. So even at the age of 32 we expect him to have at least two good years left in him with the current situation.  With teams focusing a little more on Cassel, WR Bowe, and first round draft pick in Pitt wideout Jonathon Baldwin, expect him to cross the 1,000 yard threshold yet again.  As a matter of fact the Chiefs may post the first 1,000 yard rushing tandem in AFC West history.  Rushing the football over 500 times last year, yikes. At running back, Kansas City is Super Bowl quality…better bring some linebackers with “big boy” pads on to play them too.

Receivers: The Chiefs wanted to ensure that teams couldn’t concentrate solely on Dewayne Bowe last year by running effectively, and this year by drafting him a running mate in Pitt’s Jonathon Baldwin.  As for Bowe, he had an explosive year pulling in 72 receptions for 1,162 yards and 15 TDs.  A physical specimen at 6’2 221lbs with good speed, is only going into his 5th season and should be there for the Chiefs for years to come.  With a strong running game to force more 8 man fronts Bowe had a field day against undersized DBs. With the addition of 6’4 228 lbs Baldwin, the Chiefs will field one of football’s largest set of receivers. They will be a team that can move the chains yet we have to see how Bowe comes back after this lockout.  If he’s worked out fiendishly so that his hamstrings hold up, he will be the deep threat with Baldwin the itermediate target. With wideouts this big Oakland had better think twice about Namedi getting out of town as a corner.

The Chiefs are serviceable at TE with Leonard Pope and Tony Moeaki combining for 57 receptions and 5 TDs. Its hard to think of that being productive after Tony Gonzalez manned this spot for so long but these guys are better blockers.  Also 3rd down back Dexter McCluster ate into some of this group’s production running the up and under routes that the tight end would usually run.  With some of the division’s defenses in flux, this should be a good receiving group in Kansas City.

Offensive Line: After leading the NFL in rushing attempts (556), rushing yards (2,627), and finishing tied for 4th in rushing attempts with a 4.7 yards per carry average, this team comes off the ball with consistency.  The seven man sled is alive and well in Kansas City practices.  This team had 72 runs of over 10 yards or more and pushed for first downs on 3rd or 4th and 2, 73% of the time up the gut. Coach Haley has to love that!  How they only had one Pro Bowl lineman in LG Brian Waters is embarrassing.  As always it takes the league 1 year after a performance to recognize emerging talent.  With a heavy dose of running the football, you have to say RG Ryan Lilja and RT Barry Richardson are getting the job done.  They are in their 7th and 3rd years respectively and should be able to maintain their level of play for the foreseeable future.

One of the ways to get after the Kansas City offensive line is to get on top of this team by 7 or more points.  Since they are a heavy run offense they aren’t conditioned to come back or protect the quarterback for extended drives consisting of a majority of passing.  This team ranked 12th in the NFL allowing 32 sacks, and 18th allowing 74 hits on the quarterback.  So they are better suited in pushing off the ball than they are at protecting the passer.  With this line I’d definitely overload blitz in the face of Matt Cassell who gets the ball out a tad early which couples with the tendency that he gets hit a lot on dropbacks.  All told this team has a lot of leads and stays committed to the run so they don’t fall too far behind.  Offensive line is superior in Kansas City and may be a shade better than New England.

Defensive Line: Surprisingly the Chiefs aren’t getting the return they had originally envisioned in DE Glenn Dorsey out of LSU.  This is partially the team’s fault for drafting a 3 technique 4-3 tackle then converting to a 3-4 defense the next season.  He got caught in the middle, just ask former Green Bay Packer DE Aaron Kampman.  Now that isn’t an excuse for an anemic showing with only 2 sacks in nickle situations when they employ 4 man fronts, but he isn’t effective as a DE.  The Chiefs should trade him to a team committed at a 4-3 defense like Chicago, Minnesota, Atlanta, or home to New Orleans and getting something in return.  His build is conducive to be a “rooter”, to shove the middle of a pass pocket and not come from the additional 3 yards away at DE. Since the Chiefs are 14th in rushing yards allowed and average with 1,764 and 4.3 respectively they could use more help on this line.

The combined 5.5 sacks amongst the front 3 needs to be higher, especially for a defense that should be that rested on a team that ran the most in the NFL. DT Ron Edwards and DE Shaun Smith are decent players yet could improve as pass rushers.  The issue is that in year’s 9 and 6 respectively, this is as good as they will be and play for the aging Edwards could slip. To that avail the Chiefs drafted specimen Allen Bailey from Miami to help with that interior push.  The question is where will they play him.  He seems suitable to rush from the inside on nickle and dime packages with his explosion and strength. He should be able to play special teams to keep him engaged in games but again his body type doesn’t lend to a DE, maybe part time DT. He could be disruptive if he learns to fight better with his hands.  The defensive line is slightly below average yet it could make a few strides this season if Bailey disrupts on 3rd down.

Linebackers: The Patriots flat out gave Scott Pioli and the Chiefs brass a gift when they traded Mike Vrabel to them.  A heady linebacker who’s veteran leadership and 3 Super Bowl rings give him the locker room clout to have the ear of his younger teammates. He has shown invaluable in helping the Chiefs grow up fast under Romeo Crennel’s watch.  He is showing signs of wear in not making any splash plays but he just made the right ones yet father time may be catching this 14th year vet. Star of this defense is Tamba Hali closing in at the right side OLB spot.  The Chiefs were hoping he’d improve on his 2009 and he didn’t disappoint charting 14.5 sacks (1st in AFC) and second in the league to DeMarcus Ware with 15. Hali forced 4 fumbles, recovered 2 and knocked down 3 passes and should have been to the Pro Bowl.  He’s only 27 years of age and has steadily improved with now 3 years with over 8 sacks.  Only going to get better.

Inside linebacker Derrick Johnson #56 led the team with 120 combined tackles and returned his only interception for a TD.  He gets to the football and along with Jovan Belcher’s 84 tackles this may be the best younger set of inside ‘backers in all of football.  Combined they had 2 sacks and 4 forced fumbles bringing some thump with their tackles.  Belcher was a rookie and Johnson is only entering his 6th season.  Couple that with the ages of the Jets and Raven’s inside tandem and this could be the AFC’s best within a year or two.  Linebacker is really good in Kansas City.

Secondary: Of all the playoff teams out of the AFC last year, the Chiefs were fair larsonists with 11 interceptions between their starters. They had solid play out of free safeties John McGraw and Kendrick Lewis who combined for 5 interceptions and benefitted from teams throwing away from Pro Bowl SS Eric Berry.  In 2010 Berry had 4 interceptions while making 87 tackles.  Of his 4 interceptions he did take one back for a pick 6 from 54 yards out.  This guy is a playmaker.  At the corner position, high draft pick Javier Arenas could only make the field in obvious passing situations as a nickle back. Why?? Ask the Chiefs brass about the play of corners Brandon Flower with 14passes defensed, and Brandon Carr’s 23.  An active group.  Now throw in Arenas’ 7 passes defensed and 1 interception to go along with the 2 Brandon’s 3 picks and teams had better not throw into this secondary.  With their top three corners all being 24 years old or less, this is the best secondary fielded by the Chiefs since the million dollar secondary of Kevin Ross, Albert Lewis, Lloyd Burrus, and Deron Cherry of mid to late 80s fame.  Superior is the only grade to be given out here and if this team can get another pass rusher to force more errant throws….yikes!!

Overall: Still the best in the AFC West, and if they could take something from the intensity they faced in the wild card round against Baltimore, this team could be headed to the AFC Championship Game or beyond.  Last year early on the question was were they as good as their 3-0 record. They weren’t.  They were better as evidenced by their 5-2 stretch to win the division crown when the pressure was on at the end of the season.  As strong as they are in the phases of running the football and defending the pass, if they get a lead its curtains.  They are well coached and they could make a conference splash this year if age shows up in Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  A team with no obvious weaknesses that has to see Head Coach Haley scout himself and not get pass happy with another big target opposite Bowe. He could get flashbacks to his offensive co ordinator days with the Arizona Cardinals and take to the air.

Careful Coach Haley, you have a good thing building in Kansas City and this team could make a Super Bowl run in these next two seasons.  One of the chances for this team to see growth is in week 10 with a Monday night matchup in New England.  Kansas City comes through with a win there in a championship building block game, this team could be the AFC’s sleeper.  I know that sounds crazy to say of a possible two time division champion, but they are not the sexy pick and most pundits would list them as the 5th or 6th best AFC team. They should finish with a record of 11-5 or 12-4 with another AFC West Title. Plenty of bar-b-que and handwarmers come playoff time in Kansas City.

2011 New Orleans Saints Preview

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Its amazing what happens in pro football when a team becomes Super Bowl champion.  Every little nuance is studied and every small flaw gets worked on until it becomes a crack, then transformed into a team’s Achille’s heel.  However when you think about it, the same problems the Saints had in 2009 were there in 2010.

In ’09 the ball just seemed to keep bouncing their way, from the Robert Meachem stealing the ball from a Redskin who intercepted Brees then ran it in for a TD, to the tipped pass to Darren Sharper who returned it for a clinching TD in a struggle with the Dolphins. What goes up must come down and all those you climb over to get that ring are all of those who will give you their best shot on your way down.  Does it wear on a team? Week after week everyone takes their best shot and the war of attrition sets in…yes  By the end of the 2010 season the New Orleans Saints were running on empty.  We at the Taylor Blitz Times are still waiting for the Saints to tackle Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch.  With the additions and target on someone else’s back, can they liberate the NFC South mantle from the Atlanta Falcons??

Quarterback: Aside from Green Bay and New England, no team is in better shape at the quarterback position.  You could argue that Drew Brees is still the NFC ‘s best quarterback over Aaron Rodgers.  Hell the NFL for that matter. Without his steady play this team would have slid into the abyss with a running game that wasn’t as formidable as the title run the year before.

Although Brees passer rating dropped to 12th, (90.9) he threw a whopping 658 times completing 448 for 4,620 yards, 33TDs yet had 20 interceptions. Having to overcompensate for the anemic running game and being forced to throw, contributed to the high turnover totals.  Sounds like a down year coming off of his 5,ooo yard masterpiece two years before but get this… He was still 3rd in yards passing, 2nd in touchdowns thrown while leading the league in completion percentage at 68.1%.  Even in the 41-36 playoff upset loss to the Seattle Seahawks he was forced to hoist 60 passes. Far too many.  He completed 33 for 404 yards and he was masterful in that game throwing no interceptions.  He now ranks 1st in every Saints  career passing category: yards, completions, attempts and touchdown passes.

What hasn’t been showcased is how to get the best of Drew Brees as a defense.  Even last season he threw several interceptions late in games when he was forced to take chances.  Sean Payton has constructed a passing game that gets the ball out of Brees hands the instant his back foot hits the turf.  They make great use of 3 and 5 step drops and bubble screens to get the jump on opposing defenses.

Teams may be better suited to come up and press his receivers and send overload blitzes at him because the way the rules are now, he’s going to go up the field throwing 5 to 6 yard throws.  Send a series of zone blitzes and overload blitzes to rough him up seems like the only way. Otherwise its basketball on grass and you won’t stop him.  He is in his prime and barring catastrophy should have another 5 years left in him.  Without question quarterback is Super Bowl quality in New Orleans.

Offensive Backfield: After being derailed by backfield injuries, the Saints pulled the second biggest coup of the 2011 draft landing Heisman winner Mark Ingram from Alabama.  They stole a lot of thunder being made on draft day by their NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, for trading up for Julio Jones, Ingram’s teammate from the 2009 National Championship team.  This solves a tremendous problem the Saints have had for several years now: running consistently tough between the tackles.

Many think Ingram is a “can’t miss” running back and an Emmitt Smith clone.  A patient runner with short choppy steps who runs with a low pad level to prevent him from fumbling while powering forward for the tough yards.  He had a few injuries in his senior season where he rushed for 875 yards, yet dazzled in his Heisman season where he ran for 1,658 yards and 17 TDs.  The running back position in the NFL is not a position where a player grows into it. All great running backs have their best years in the first three.  Running the football, Ingram will prove to be a fit immediately.

Speaking of a fit, time to talk about a running back who doesn’t. This should spell the end for Reggie Bush who couldn’t make it work in the pros unless he was in space. A bust with a few splash plays per year doesn’t merit the $11 million he is scheduled to make this season.  He has had some impact on special teams but face it, his 36 carries for 150 yards rushing and 34 rec. for 208 yards for a combined 2 TDs is nowhere close to enough. After Mike Bell departed for Cleveland, the rushing game was turned over to Chris Ivory, who led the Saints with 716 yards, and Pierre Thomas who gained 269 more.

Yet each proved unable to handle the pounding and the Saints had to bring in former Dallas Cowboy Julius Jones off the streets to man the backfield in the playoff loss to the Seahawks.  These backs just couldn’t stay on the field and when they were, the offense couldn’t sustain drives which caused team wide problems. Having to pass so much led to being unable to control the clock which put an undersized defense on the field too much. (See early 90’s Buffalo Bills) Its a systemic solution that one solid running back, in Mark Ingram, should  solve.  At running back the Saints leaped back to very good. He can also power the ball from in tight and the Saints should improve on 9 rushing TDs.

Receivers: The beneficiaries to all this passing is a receiving corp devoid of stars yet are solid intermediate receivers.  Marques Colston led the way with 84 rec. for 1,023 yards and 7 TDs followed by Lance Moore’s 66 receptions for 763 yards with a team leading 8 touchdowns.  What is unique is Colston, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem are the same type of receiver, tall, rangy and they play relatively slow.  Its Brees throwing the ball on time that makes this receiving corp look better than it is.

Yet Moore is quick and darts in and out of small cracks to gain 40 first downs out of his 66 catches. He and Colston  each made 1st downs on their receptions 60% and 67% of the time respectively.  This team runs the bubble screen as affective as any team in football.  This was an extension of their running game in 2010.

Yet this group is slow and defenses should press this group more. Teams are playing so fearful of Brees that they immediately drop into zones when this team has no burners on it.  Defense this receiving corps with combo coverages on their slot players and get physical with your corners on slower receivers and make Brees throw out of rhythm. This pressure on the receivers would make Brees pump fake and pull the ball down allowing your pass rush extra time to sack him.

Looks like the Saints will be moving on at tight end going with Jimmy Graham as Jeremy Shockey’s successor. Their numbers were nearly identical yet Graham reached the endzone 5 times to Shockey’s 3 yet this is a salary cap issue. They get to maintain that production while paying less and thats the NFL we follow now.  Receiver is serviceable to good in the Crescent City.

Offensive Line: In the words of Vince Lombardi, football is always going to be a game of blocking and tackling.  Well this offensive line had some issues with the blocking side of that equation. This team only rushed for 1,519 yards (28th) yet averaged 4.0 yards per attempt yet had problems pushing into the endzone when the team drove down close.  The 9 rushing touchdowns (28th) this team scored is evidence of that. What is unique is between the 20s this team ran off right tackle and gained first downs 67 times which ranked 9th.  You would think that would translate down at the goal line. Puzzling.

The Saints passing statistics from a line standpoint are mixed.  One of the aspects of Sean Payton’s playbook is for Brees to get the ball out quickly with 3 and 5 step drops.  The Saints were 5th lowest in sacks allowing 26th and were ranked 11th in allowing Brees to be hit 67 times.  They need to improve on their pass protection with the Buccaneers building a strong defensive front as a division opponent and the Panthers will be building a defense under former defensive co-ordinator and current Head Coach Ron Rivera.

Teams will be coming after Brees and if he is injured the Saints would be in trouble.  The New Orleans front did have a pro bowl performer in LG Carl Nicks out of Nebraska. This line is average to below average…just doesn’t get the push when close to the goal line and those passing numbers are high for a team that throws from short quarterback drop backs.

Defensive Line: This line had a fair year yet needs some help. Of the 33 sacks the Saints collected, 21.5 came from a committee of 7 linemen with none totalling more than DT Sedrick Ellis’ 6.  Will Smith needs to stop acting and rapping and get after the damn quarterback.  His sack total of 5.5 doesn’t cut it for a former first round draft pick and is down from 13.5 from the year before. In defensive co-ordinator Greg Williams scheme, DEs are to get after the quarterback and check on the run on their way there.

This is the system Jevon Kearse broke in with. So come on Smith, get after it. The Saints spent their1st round draft pick for the services of Cal DE Cameron Jordan to help bolster the pass rush. At 6’4, 287lbs he has the size and wingspan to rush in the pros.  His father Steve Jordan was a pro bowl tight end with the Minnesota Vikings in the 80s and 90s so the athletic pedigree is there.  They also drafted Greg Romeus out of Pitt to help get after the passer. Veteran DE Alex Brown may be the odd man out.

If the Saints want to regain the NFC South crown one thing they need to do is play a little more stout up front against the run.  This team was 16th against the rush and gave up a mediocre 4.3 yards per attempt. At times this line was shoved into the linebacker and the safeties faces. With big running backs to face in the division with Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Tampa Bay’s Blount, and Carolina’s Jonathon Stewart / DeAngelo Williams combo, this has to be a priority. Surprisingly they didn’t draft a DT, yet right before the lockout they picked up Shaun Rogers, former Cleveland Brown, to help hold the middle.  At 6’3 350 lbs he should eat up blockers and allow Vilma, and Shanle to make plays. Defensive front is slightly below average and they should get another DT when free agency opens up.

Linebackers: The anchor of this defense is Pro Bowl MLB Jonathon Vilma out of the University of Miami.  He led the team with 107 tackles, had 4 sacks and forced 3 fumbles. He’s instinctive and quick yet at 230 lbs can be engulfed by blockers so its imperative the DT play improves.  Scott Shanle (76 tackles) and Danny Clark (59 tackles) are the starters on the outside. They’re solid tacklers yet rarely make big hits or splash plays.

Between the two of them there wasn’t a sack or interception turned in all year…and they still haven’t tackled Marshawn Lynch.  Saint’s brass must be in agreeance with us since they spent two draft picks here on Illinois linebackers Martez Wilson and Nate Bussey in the 3rd and 7th rounds respectively.

Linebacker is below average thanks to the outside ‘backer play.  This group needs to force more turnovers and its puzzling that they don’t since they play pretty fast.

Secondary: When a pass rush can’t get to the quarterback, the play that is most affected will be that of the secondary. The starting quartet only pulled in 5 interceptions among them.  Former Buckeyes Malcolm Jenkins and Jabari Greer each had two interceptions.  The secondary missed the veteran play of Darren Sharper at free safety, however Jenkins is a converted corner and should grow with the position.  Its a good thing SS Roman Harper likes to tackle, he gets many shots at it. Not only did he make the pro bowl in 2010, he was second on the team with 94 tackles, had 3 sacks, and forced 6 fumbles. Thats a tremendous performance.

Tracy Porter only had 1 interception in 2010 while defending 6 passes.  This is as solid a secondary as the NFC South offers.  It rates better than what is shown statistically.  Once the pass rush resumes, this team will pick off more passes.  Porter in particular since Will Smith is on the same side.

It sounds like we’re piling on Smith but one of the recipes for interceptions is for quarterbacks too throw over a disruptive, tall pass rusher. If you can’t get to the quarterback, at least get your hands up.  This is how Lester Hayes once picked off 13 passes in a season behind a 6’8 Ted Hendricks, and an Everson Walls snatched 11 the next year behind a 6’9 “Too Tall” Jones.  Smith did deflect 5 passes last year so keep watching.

Overall: This is going  to be an interesting year for the Saints.  Drew Brees enjoys being one of the faces of the league, will he turn around and hand the ball off to Mark Ingram as much as he should??  Brees like any other good athlete has an ego.  This will be a good watch to see what he audibles to and how he responds if his rhythm is thrown off with a more balanced attack.  Will Ingram fit into the passing game well enough so they can have him as an every down back? If he is platooned, the Saints could suffer from the syndrome that affected the Dallas Cowboys last year.

They telegraphed what they were going to run based on which running back was in there.  Defenses would get the jump on them. We’re still unsure at Taylor Blitz Times if they did enough on the defensive front to solidify themselves against the run.  We see a mixed year coming up with a record of 9-7 to 10-6 and another wild card berth.

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Word count: 1256 Last edited by jeftaylor on May 20, 2011 at 12:00 pm

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2011 Detroit Lions Preview

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A look back at last football season for this team and the question that lingers is: What would have happened had Calvin Johnson’s 4th quarter touchdown stood in week 1 at Chicago? Would that early season win served as a launching pad for the 2010 Lions?  After a season in which the Lions made strides on both sides of the ball, they came through with the best draft in all of pro football.  The coup to land Auburn DT Nick Fairley to team with Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch sent shockwaves throughout the league. Fellow draft picks Titus Young, an explosive receiver from Boise St., and tough RB Mike Leshoure give the Lions three picks that should contribute immediately.  This is a spirited young team that learned it could be competitive and they are growing before our eyes.  Circled is the week 5 matchup where they host Chicago with their first Monday Night game in many years.  Will this matchup with Chicago serve as a launching pad?

Quarterback:  The key to the Lions playoff push is the health of Matthew Stafford. He’s shown improvement and earned a degree of respect from his team when he came in with a separated shoulder to throw for the winning score against Cleveland.  Yet he has shown a penchant for injury and this is the year he has to develop over a complete season to justify his #1 pick and fulfill expectations.  Last year Stafford only started 3 games, yet he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 int.  He was more relaxed in the pocket and looked like a solid leader. His team needs to grow with him during the season for the Lions to take that next step.

In Stafford’s absence, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton played solidly with Hill starting 10 games and Stanton 3. Hill actually had the highest completion percentage of the three QBs with 61.8% while throwing for 16TDs to 12 interceptions.  Yet at 30 yrs of age, this is the zenith of what we can expect from him.  He’s a serviceable backup who can step in. However it was when Drew Stanton (formerly of Michigan St) played that the team seemed to show real spirit.  His mobility was showcased when the pocket breaks down running for 118 yards and 1 TD. In fact of the 6 wins in 2010: 3 happened when Hill started, 1 with Stafford, and 2 with Stanton.  Stanton’s growth completing 58% of his passes for 4TDs to 3ints, while being 5 years younger, could make Hill trade bait. We saw how Lions players rallied around him when he played.  The quarterback position is average yet growing in Motown.

Offensive Backfield: Last year’s selection of Jahvid Best turned out to be a good one.  Not for last year’s rushing performance (555yds / 3.2 avg.) but for his receiving totals.  His 58 receptions for 487 yards out of the backfield included a 75 yard touchdown.  Thats a whopping 8.4 yards per reception.  He isn’t an every down back and his average shows he is best as a change of pace back.  Once he doesn’t take a starter’s pounding, he will be that much more explosive out of the backfield.  Maurice Morris is more solid between the tackles yet lacks homerun punch.  His rushing average of 3.7 was stronger than Best’s but again showcases he is a ball carrier, not a top shelf runner that can make things happen. Morris is better suited as a backup.

Enter draft pick Mikel Leshoure from Illinois, who may be the best fit for his team than any running back drafted this year. At 6’0, 227lbs, he offers the power between the tackles that the Lions have been missing, and should move Best to a 3rd down role. He is more explosive than Morris and with teams worried about the passing game; there should be openings for Leshoure to be a splash player this year.  He ran for nearly 1,700 yards in his final collegiate season and could be a 1,000 yard rusher as a rookie.  The Lions backfield projects to good

Receivers:  Entering his 5th year, Calvin “Megatron” Johnson is in his prime and was the Lions lone offensive pro bowl performer in 2011.  His 77 receptions for 1,120 yards for 12 TDs ranked him in the top 20 in all 3 categories.  His 12 TDs receiving was second in the league.  This was enough for his peers to vote him into the Pro Bowl with a top tier performance while working with multiple quarterbacks.  With a healthy Stafford all year, it would be easy to see his numbers grow to 90 -100 receptions for 1,500 yards, he’s that talented! At 6’6 and 235 lbs. while running a sub 4.4 / 40, he is as lethal a receiver that has come into the NFL since Randy Moss in 1998.  Up until now he has needed some help.

Even “Megatron” has to have a “Starscream.”  That help may have arrived with the Lions second pick in Boise St’s WR Titus Young.  A 5’11, 175 lbs. burner with 4.3 / 40 speed, he should add further vertical explosion to an offense to dependent on Johnson making the big play in the passing game.  Nate Burleson is a good intermediate receiver and has been serviceable; Young gives Detroit the home run threat on both sides.  This should be Detroit’s best 1-2 punch at receiver since Herman Moore and Brett Perriman (twin 100 reception receivers in 1995). This team could be the NFC’s most explosive offense fielding 3 weapons with 4.3 speed in Johnson, Best, and Young.  Look out! Titus also is an excellent kick returner.

Rounding out Detroit’s receiving corp. is the prize of the 2009 draft in Oklahoma St’s Brandon Pettigrew. (Tim Evans) Last year the big tight end made strides in his play, doubling his catch totals, receiving yards and touchdowns. Oh, you wanted numbers…well he caught 71 passes for 722 yards and caught 4 touchdowns. Pettigrew can stretch the middle and is a mismatch for linebackers and at 6’5, 257 lbs. is growing into too much man for most strong safeties.

With all this speed and the three main receivers having 5 years or less service, the NFC North had better draft some secondary speed.  Stafford stays healthy and develops over a season with this group, team passing records could fall.  At receiver this team could be frightening.  Receiver in Detroit is good with a chance to be beyond pro bowl caliber as a group.

Offensive Line:  This team needs more punch on the right side.  RG Stephen Peterman and RT Gosder Cherilus only led to 20 rushing first downs and had 23 negative running plays.  On the strong side with a right handed quarterback? Those need to be dramatically improved and this team ran a lot of draws and counters to offset that weakness. Now running to the weakside produced 46 1st downs, over 24 rushing plays that gained 10 or more yards and anchored the quarterback protection.  Those rushing totals need to be reversed as the team was 23rd in rushing with 1,613 yards and only had 11TDs. They need Leshoure to come through to aid here.

Although Matt Stafford has been knocked from action on several occasions, this OLine has actually given up the 6th fewest sacks last year with 27.  Detroit QBs were hit on 64 different drop backs which ranked 10th.  This may be where the move to a more mobile Drew Stanton to the second string position at QB could prove beneficial if Stafford is to go down for any significant time.  The offensive line is slightly above average but needs to improve driving teams off the ball.  They could use a free agent acquisition to provide some competition on the right side.

Defensive Line:  By far the surprise of the 2011 draft was landing Auburn DT Nick Fairley. You could feel the collective gasp of the NFL when the selection was announced in Radio City Music Hall. The realization that Fairley, who should have went #1 or at least top 5, fell to a team who fielded arguably the best rookie defensive lineman in NFL history in Ndamukong Suh. Wow!  All Suh did was amass 66 tackles, had 1 interception, and forced a fumble with his 10 sacks. At defensive tackle? Yikes! He was runaway NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowl starter.  His motor and attitude was just what the Lions need to make a turnaround and should rub off positively on Fairley.

When we last saw Fairley, he was busy wreaking havoc in the Oregon backfield during the Tostitos National Championship Game.  He was the most dominant player on the field in that game and next to Heisman winner Cam Newton was the best player in the SEC.  He plays with the perfect degree of nastiness in a defensive player, right on the edge.  While it has led to a few penalties, it’s also led to him completely taking over games.  His experience in playing at a high level in big games like the SEC Championship and National Championship Games will go a long way in the overall maturation of a Lions team trying to achieve the playoffs. Along with the added incentive of wanting to play hard against the teams that didn’t select him, his maturing, and having the perfect running mate in Suh, should terrorize the NFC North for the next 5-7 years easy barring injury.

Forgotten in this mix is the leadership and toughness of returning DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. He may turn into a double digit sack performer with so much attention on the twin DTs.  In 11 games last year he only had 33 tackles and 4 sacks.  Bosch is a work out fiend who should come into this season in terrific shape, thanks to the lockout extending time where his 32 yr old body won’t have to take hits through the summer. Other quarterback hunters on the team totaled 19.5 sacks with LDE Cliff Avril leading the way with 8.5 despite missing 3 games. The Lions amassed a mind boggling 44 sacks, which ranked 6th in the NFL, a tremendous amount for a team that rarely held leads. They should improve on their rankings of 21st on defense, 24th against the run starting with this young defensive line.  NFC North, watch out! With Suh in year 2, Fairley in year 1, and Avril in year 3, they will only improve. Defensive line is superior with the Lions.

Linebackers: This is where a free agent pick up could go a long way to make this a top ten defense. Play here is steady but not spectacular.  Julian Peterson last year was 2nd on the team with 57 tackles yet didn’t force a fumble or intercept a pass. That isn’t enough with that much pressure being generated up front. MLB DeAndre Levy, who missed 5 games, combined with his backup Ashley Palmer for 83 tackles. Levy did pick off 2 passes and Palmer forced 3 fumbles, so they have made some plays.  Sam linebacker Landon Johnson was 11th on the team in tackles behind ALL of Detroit’s secondary?  Terrible! At the strong side he has to shed blocks of the TE and make more plays than that. Olsen in Chicago, Shiancoe in Minnesota, and JerMichael Finley in Green Bay are more pass receiving tight ends than massive blockers and he has to play better. This group needs help on the outside and needs to make plays.  Maybe the addition of 5th round pick Douglas Hogue can help.  Linebacker is below average and this lockout could keep the Lions from getting that key free agent acquisition.

Secondary:  Louis Delmas at FS led the Lions in tackles with 62 tackles and 2 forced fumbles yet didn’t intercept a pass all year…all year! With that much pressure up front? Clearly his ball hawking skills have to improve. Going into his 3rd year he has to show improvement against the pass or they should move him to SS since he is willing to tackle. SS Amari Spivey should have made a higher amount of tackles than 33 yet we will attribute that to being a rookie.  He did have 2 interceptions on the season which ranked 2nd on the team.  First on the team was CB Alphonso Smith with 5, yet the other corners, Chris Houston, and Nathan Vasher, only had 1 a piece.

Part of this problem is the defense is playing too much cover 2 zone and need to mix their coverages more.  Although one of their better performances came in the late season upset of the Green Bay Packers in week 14.  They held the Super Bowl champions to only 3 points while smothering Aaron Rodgers targets. Youthful and with some improvement could get another 10 interceptions across the board. Secondary is slightly below average.

Overall: This team is coming in with a 4 game winning streak to end the season.  It started with the upset of the Packers and then the 10 win Buccaneers. They proved to themselves that they can play with anyone and with the new additions should win 10 games in the upcoming season.  With Minnesota in flux after the retirement of Brett Favre and the Bears not really improving their offense, this is the year the Lions should find their way to the postseason.  This roster is youthful and improvement should come from many positions.  First off they are playing with a tremendous chip on their shoulder where Titus Young’s underdog Boise St attitude, and Nick Fairley’s wanting to “show other teams what they passed on” attitude will further foster.  The excitement that this team finished with has only heightened with a great draft.

In the free agency era the formula for a team rising from the ashes starts with a good finish the year before. Notably the ’98 Falcons finishing 6-2 in ‘97 before a surprise Super Bowl run, ’99 Ravens finishing 6-2 before a Super Bowl run in ‘00, and the ’03 Bengals finishing 7-4 before a playoff run in ’04, and even the “99 Eagles winning their last two games includng a victory over the eventual champion St. Louis Rams.  (just to name a few)   . This team can see that type of turnaround with a little bit of luck.  That week 5 Monday Night Game hosting Chicago should be a coming out party. The league had better get ready.

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Next Up: New Orleans Saints

Sterling Sharpe Belongs In The Hall of Fame

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As those in and Packerland celebrate the team’s 13th championship in NFL history, the mind travels back to when Green Bay was the desolate outpost that few players wanted to go to.  The team had a celebrated past yet the years after Vince Lombardi’s team won Super Bowl II were lean with very few postseason appearances.

Everyone points to the hiring of GM Ron Wolf  or Mike Holmgren, or Reggie White’s free agent signing in 1993, or even Brett Favre being picked up in 1992 as the first step in the team returning to prominence.  Each were significant but weren’t the first step.  That distinction belongs to former All Pro receiver Sterling Sharpe who became the preeminent receiver of his time and was outplaying the legendary Jerry Rice at the time of his forced retirement because of a neck injury.

The Packers selected Sharpe in the ’88 NFL Draft and he played for 7 seasons. During that time he would go on to produce….nope not going to tell the story in that fashion. This was Terrell Owens before Terrell Owens meaning he would run over cornerbacks who tried to jam him or tackle him on slants.  I can still see the touchdown in ’92 when he drug CB Darryl Henley and half the LA Rams secondary into the endzone from the 5 yard line, knocking out Safety Pat Terrell in the process.

In an era where receivers were sleek, run and shoot quick guys like Earnest Givins, Drew Hill, & Andre Rison as the preferred types.  Michael Irvin and Sterling Sharpe were breaking in a new mold later carried on by Detroit’s Herman Moore and Minnesota’s Cris Carter.  The muscular intermediate receiver who were physical with cornerbacks then would slip by them for 40 yard gains later in the game once they beat up on them a bit.

Sterling started rather slow with a 55 catch rookie season where he only scored 1 touchdown and vowed to improve his approach to the game.  He felt the media was harsh in how they treated him and nearly went the rest of his career without granting an interview…well almost.  In 1989 he burst onto the national scene with 90 receptions for 1,423 yards and 12 TDs, earning the first of his 5 Pro Bowl and All Pro appearances.

He teamed with Don Majkowski to power The Pack to a stellar record of 10-6 which included a late season win over the World Champion 49ers in Candlestick.  He became the focal point of Head Coach Lindy Infante’s offense and gave the Packers a legitimate star to help attract Plan B free agents. Sharpe went on to Pro Bowl and All Pro status in the 1990, 1992-1994 seasons.

The greatness of this talent was showcased in 1992, he had to learn a new offense from a new coach in Mike Holmgren and during the third game learn to play with first time starter Brett Favre. How did he perform?

Well he went on to break Art Monk’s all time NFL record of 106 catches in a season, going for 108.  He totaled a career high 1,461 yards and scored another 13 TDs.  Sharpe won the triple crown as he led the NFL in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in 1992 which is amazing considering the coach & quarterback scenario.

Think about it for a sec… Jerry Rice’s most prolific years were 1987 and 1995 where he totaled 22 TDs receiving (87) and 122 catches / 1,808 yards gained in 1995.  These were achieved with league MVPs & Super Bowl MVPs Joe Montana and Steve Young in their 8th and 5th seasons as starters respectively. So naturally he would get better in the ensuing years with a new system in place right?

In 1993, his second year in Holmgren’s system, he broke his previous All Time NFL record of 108 catches going for 112 rec., 1,274 yard and 11TDs.  He also introduced “turf toe” as an injury to the sporting world lexicon which was a dislocated large toe basically.  The painful injury not only kept him from practicing ALL YEAR, he had to wear a shoe 1 1/2 sizes larger on the foot with the injury. What would he have done had he been able to hone his pass routes in practice?

sterling-sharpe-record-glovesThe Packers went 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wild card.  They played their division rival Detroit Lions in the Silverdome and Sharpe electrified with a 5 rec., 101 yd 3TD performance.  His 3TD receptions tied the NFL All-Time Post season record which still stands.  The last of which (pictured above) was a 40 yard TD from Favre with less than a minute to play.  Not bad for his first playoff game huh? It was a day so interesting and exciting that he broke his 5 year boycott of granting interviews and spoke at the post game press conference.

The next week the Packers lost to the world champion Dallas Cowboys 27-17 yet Sharpe caught 6 passes for 128 yards and 1 TD.  He showed he was a prime time performer even in the postseason.  He had led the league in receptions in back to back years and was still improving with a young up and coming quarterback.  What more could the future hold?

Yet 1994 proved to be the last season in the NFL for Sterling Sharpe. A promising career cut short with a serious neck injury that robbed us of viewing the best receiver in the league at the time. Really? Yes really! Sharpe went out with a bang. In ’94 he amassed 94 rec. for 1,119 yards and an astounding 18 touchdowns.

The 18 receiving TDs were the second most in NFL history (at that time) tying the old all time record with Mark Clayton (who did it in ’84) and who ironically was Sharpe’s teammate in ’93.  Along the way there was a much ballyhooed showdown on Thanksgiving in Dallas to show the nation Sharpe and the Packers had arrived.  They lost 42-31, but again Sharpe dazzled the nation with a 9 rec. 122 yards and 4 TDs on the league’s #1 defense,  totally outperforming counterpart Michael Irvin.  Both players, along with Andre Rison, battled Jerry Rice in the stat sheets for league supremacy at receiver in the early 90’s.  However Sharpe missed the playoff rematch and retired after the season.

Sterling Sharpe left the game after 7 super productive seasons with 595 rec. for 8,134 yards and 65 TDs which doesn’t truly paint the full picture. In his last 3 years he caught 314 passes for 3,854 yards and 42 TDs averaging 104 receptions per season. At that rate over 3 more seasons he would have crossed 900 catches for almost 12,000 yards and 107 TDs which he easily would have done.  How do we know this? Brett Favre’s next three years in ’95,’96, and ’97, not only was he league MVP all 3 years, he threw for 38, 39 and 35TDs in those seasons.

Those three seasons the Packers lost the NFC Championshp Game in ’95 yet made the Super Bowl the next two years. It’s a shame that the team he led back to NFL prominence would go on to be league champion without him.  Ironically his brother Shannon gave him his first Super Bowl ring when the Broncos defeated the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII, citing Sterling as his greatest male influence.

How do you gauge impact? Well you need to ask yourself a few questions.  In 1992 Mike Holmgren was the hottest coaching commodity when the Vikings, Steelers, and Packers were vying for his services.  Seeing that Holmgren wanted to install his “west coast offense”, don’t you think Green Bay won out by having Sterling Sharpe as his Jerry Rice already in tow to play his “Z” receiver?  What happens if the star receiver wasn’t on hand to aid a nervous young Brett Favre, allowing him to gain confidence?

If he would have struggled, Don Majkowski gets his job back 7 weeks later and we may never have known of Brett… think about it. Favre only became the NFL’s all time quarterback in ….well everything. In fact it was Sharpe who got Favre rolling in his first start against Pittsburgh absolutely scorching Rod Woodson on a stutter-go 76 yard touchdown to settle Favre down.  Without Sterling Sharpe, NFL history and certainly Green Bay Packers history would have been altered drastically.

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This was a talent that blocked in the running game and didn’t dance in the endzone when he did score.  He didn’t jump up signaling first down when he made a catch.  He was the absolute antithesis of the “me” receiver that has overtaken the league over the last 20 years.  After Charlie Hennigan in 1961 ( 101 rec. /AFL’s Houston Oilers), Art Monk in ’84 (106 rec. / Washington Redskins), and ’90 Jerry Rice (100 rec. / San Fran 49ers) it was Sharpe who made the 100 catch season a staple in league totals, going for 108 receptions then 112 the following year.

The fact that he didn’t self promote on every television camera he saw yet isn’t in the Hall of Fame, may give way to why we see receivers that do.  Gale Sayers isn’t the only great player to have his career cut short by injury so Sharpe needs to be more than considered.  His play and on field conduct was a celebration of how and why football is played and loved by millions.

Please lend your thoughts as well by writing in to the Pro Football Hall of Fame to the address below. Please be respectful and positively lend your voice:

Please write & nominate #84
Send letters to:
Pro Football Hall of Fame
Attention: Senior Selection Committee
2121 George Halas Dr NW, Canton, 
OH 44708

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corey harris