NFL Wild Card Week – Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Russell Wilson has proven himself all season long. The playoffs shouldn't intimidate him.

Russell Wilson has proven himself all season long. The playoffs shouldn’t intimidate him.

Now after a blistering finish to the NFL regular season we have two of the NFL’s best stories meeting in the Wild Card round. This might be the first time two rookie quarterbacks have faced each other in the NFL playoffs. Where there has been great and deserved fan-fare over Robert Griffin III resurrecting the Redskins, think about the maturation of Russell Wilson. After beating out high priced free agent Matt Flynn, he has taken the job and improved as the season has gone on.

The first battle-line that can be drawn: Can Russell Wilson win this game on the road?? In the early stages of this season you’d have to say no, but if you look at his performances in the latter stages of this campaign you have to say yes. Some prognosticator today will blurt out the Seahawks 3-5 road record today. Don’t forget they had to grow into allowing Wilson more playbook freedom as the season progressed. The defense kept them in games early and each of those losses were by 6 points or less.

The reason we’re watching this team in the playoffs and not the Chicago Bears is their week 13 , 23-17 win in Soldier Field. Wilson came of age as he hit Sidney Rice for the game winner in that overtime thriller. Serious wild card ramifications were on the line and Seattle pulled through on the road. Couple that with his 3 rushing touchdown performance on the road against Buffalo in Toronto, this team is now portable. Wilson, along with RGIII, are no longer rookies. When you’re in your 17th game in the pros, you now know what to expect. Get this: Dating back to October 18th, Russell has only thrown 5 interceptions with only 2 of those coming on the road and none in his last 3 away from Seattle. He’s a smart player and has grown as the games have grown more important.

From th eopener to the present, Robert Griffin III has come to be the face of the veteran laden  Redskins.

From th eopener to the present, Robert Griffin III has come to be the face of the veteran laden Redskins.

Did we just say something about growing as the games have grown more important?? Robert Griffin III’s rookie season can only be marveled at. Did you see the exchange between he and Santana Moss as the clock wound down against Dallas in the season finale?? Our CEO can’t remember the last time a rookie quarterback held that much sway as a leader among teammates much older. Someone may say what about Andrew Luck?? For the most part the Colts are young whereas this Redskin team is full of veterans.

However this is the NFL playoffs and something has to give… We have a Redskin team in the midst of a 7 game winning streak against a Seattle team that has won 7 of 8. This game is going to come down to defense…plain and simple. The Seahawks are 4th overall and have only given up 17 points on average in their last few outings. The Redskins are 28th. When it comes to defensing the run, the Redskins are actually ranked high…5th against the run. However a closer look reveals that they are 30th against the pass so that is a bit of a misnomer.

KJ Wright leads the NFL's 4th best defense in 2012.

KJ Wright leads the NFL’s 4th best defense in 2012.

In all actuality the Redskins have been abysmal on defense. Six teams have scored 27 or more on this group this year. Sure none have scored that much in 4 weeks but let’s ask the question: Does that have more to do with the Redskins defensive prowess or does that have to do with scaled back game plans by opponents as the temperatures dropped?? We told you as far back as week 2 that this Seattle defense was supremely stout. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/09/21/nfl-week-3-nfc-west-not-just-the-province-of-the-49ers/. They have been no further back than 6th in all of football.

With a gimpier RGIII in a knee brace, this defense can track him down and make life miserable for Redskin 1,000 yard rusher Alfred Morris.  Griffin will have to throw into the lair of Cam Chancellor and Pro Bowl S Earl Thomas. The portable running game that doesn’t need the quarterback’s play-faking that will get on track is Marshawn Lynch, who has run for 1,590 yards and 11 touchdowns. Although Alfred Morris has outgained him (1,613 yards /13TDs) lets face it…. he benefits from a mobile RG III keeping the backside of the defense honest. Without that, the speedy Seahawks should be able to cascade down on Washington’s running attack.

The defensive prowess stepping to the fore…we have to pick Seattle in this one.

NFL Week 14: NFC West – Not The Sole Province of the 49ers

Lynch and the Seahawks have been coming on as the season has progressed.

Lynch and the Seahawks have been coming on as the season has progressed.

Back in week 3, we tried to warn you of this, and now it’s coming close to the end of the season and this division looks like it is about to turnover. Have the Seattle Seahawks ever played with more force and purpose than they have this year?? With all due respect to their Super Bowl XL team, this group has grown and come forward to challenge a San Francisco team that thought they had this division all to themselves. The verve and spirit they have displayed all year has been infectious. Yet with a win against Buffalo and a loss by the 49ers, who travel to New England, they will be within half a game of the NFC West lead. Then guess who a Seahawk team that is undefeated hosts the following week??

Considering the non explosion that was supposed to happen for the 49ers when they switched quarterbacks, a win in New England doesn’t seem likely. San Francisco brings a defense but they have to travel cross country and take on a Patriot offense that is averaging 42 points per game in the last 5 weeks. They are going to slow a Tom Brady who has completed 64.4% of his passes while throwing for 29TDs to only 4 interceptions?? They’re mission should they choose to accept it…

Let’s take a look at the standings…

West Division

W

L

T

PCT

PF

PA

HOME

ROAD

DIV

CONF

STRK

LAST5

San Francisco 49ers 49ers 9 3 1 .731 316 184 5-1 4-2 2-1 6-3 W1 3-1
Seattle Seahawks Seahawks 8 5 0 .615 300 202 6-0 2-5 1-3 6-4 W2 4-1
St. Louis Rams Rams 6 6 1 .500 236 279 4-3 2-3 4-0 5-3 W3 3-1
Arizona Cardinals Cardinals 4 9 0 .308 186 292 3-3 1-6 1-4 2-7 L9 0-5

Now our CEO has been very opinionated about the 49ers turning the quarterbacking duty to Colin Kaepernick and think they sabotaged a possible Super Bowl run. Coach Harbaugh should take a look at the teams Alex Smith had to take on right before he got injured. Do you realize that in defensive rankings the Seahawks are 3rd, the Rams are 10th, and the Cardinals rank 12th. Who would have sustained offense against that many top flight defenses?? Consequently, facing the Saints (32nd) and the Dolphins (19th) haven’t really improved Kaepernick’s numbers. He is still completing a smaller percent of his passes (70%-67.4%), in four games he has only thrown 3 touchdowns. Smith’s touchdown percentage per pass was even higher.

Now you send a quarterback starting his 5th game to face the defending AFC Champions and the master of situation defense in Bill Belichick. The last time we saw Kaepernick on the road it was his huge miscue (safety) that turned a game San Fran was winning, into a loss to the Rams. The Patriots have a faster defense and will keep him tracked. In this game he’s going to have to sustain real technical offense even if the 49er defense starts off well. Relying on scrambles or gimmick plays won’t get it done. Eventually, the Patriots will score. This isn’t the team that Arizona beat in week 3 and Seattle beat in week 6. Right now the Patriots are averaging 36.3 points per game. If they can sustain that pace they will score 582 points or 7 short of the NFL all time record of 589 scored by the 2007 Patriots. Kaepernick is going to keep pace?? No way… a rout could be looming. All it takes is a few miscues on the road, let momentum get away from you and…

Isn’t that what happened last week in Seattle?? Goodness that game was over with before the Cardinals knew what hit them. FIFTY EIGHT to nothing?? That is a 1980’s college football score when a big school would clobber a smaller one. Once they jumped on the Cardinals 17-0 and the 12th man got into it, the turnovers came in bunches. If you haven’t seen this team play they swarm like bees on defense and special teams. This week their Pro Bowl bound running back Marshawn Lynch gets a crack at the Buffalo Bills, which is the team that drafted him. The Seahawks get a break in the fact that they will play the Bills up in Toronto and not in an outdoor Ralph Wilson Stadium. They will need Lynch (1266 yards /9TDs) to keep the Bills offense on the sideline by running it 30 times or more. They need to ease Russell Wilson into this game. The Bills are 5th against the pass and the Seahawks have to minimize turnovers. Let their defense force the action.

Speaking of which, in 2 of their last 4 games, they have given up less than 200 yards of offense and are currently ranked #3 in total defense. Linebackers Bobby Wagner (108 tackles), KJ Wright (77 tackles) have 8 passes and 2 sacks between them but only have 1 fumble forced. This team is just a few turnovers forced from being one of the best in the business. In fact their lack of forcing turnovers on the road has been there achille’s heel as they have gone 2-5 on the road. However they did beat Chicago in overtime a few weeks ago   to wrest wild card tie break benefits from the Bears. They also beat the Vikings 6 weeks ago for further wildcard tie breakers there. However this team is looking further ahead.

russellwilsonWith a San Francisco loss and a Seattle win this week, the 49ers will have to travel to Seattle with the division lead on the line. Our CEO has the Seahawks winning that game and taking the NFC West championship away from Jim Harbaugh’s boys in a head knocker. They are 6-0 at home and play with reckless abandon in Qwest Field. You remember how loud it was when they knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in the playoffs 2 years ago. It will be the first match-up between Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, who quietly has to be considered for NFL Rookie of The Year. His 208 of 330 for 2,492 yards and 20 touchdowns isn’t that spectacular, but his 9 interceptions is low enough to keep them in games. In fact he’s only thrown 1 interception at home all season.

Seattle will be in the playoffs this year and they should make the NFC Championship with what The Chancellor has seen. Think about their run this year against playoff hopefuls. They hold tie breaker advantages over Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago, and with a win by more than 7 next week, San Francisco. The 49ers will regret giving that game up in St Louis… sure we’re getting ahead of ourselves but this is what we do.

Well an NFC West heavyweight fight looms next week… we’re picking Seattle

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NFL Week 3: NFC West – Not Just The Province of The 49ers

Cardinals reaction to Gostkowski’s blown field goal in their 20-18 upset of New England

Last year the San Francisco 49ers ran away with the division and it seemed a forgone conclusion they would repeat that performance this year. So far San Francisco has proven to be the vanguard of the NFC with convincing wins in Lambeau over the Packers, then the Lions. However there is more than a pulse being generated by fellow NFC West teams.

The biggest upset of the season so far was the dominant defensive performance put on by the Cardinals in New England. With a 20-18 victory the Cardinals proved they’re a force to be reckoned with. All day they made Tom Brady uncomfortable with an array of blitzes and crisp tackling once he checked down to backs and receivers. A performance for the ages when you consider the offense needed Kevin Kolb to come off the bench for an offense that was outgained 387 to 245 in the game.  They came up with timely stops and played a physical brand of football that kept Gillette Stadium quiet from the beginning of the game. This week they face Michael Vick and the NFL’s #1 offense at home. So far they haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game. If they can come up with another defensive gem and come out of this 3-0, look out. On top of that Kevin Kolb gets a shot at the team that traded him away. Our CEO thinks they’ll get it in this week’s upset special. Cardinals should beat the Eagles.

Lets take a look at the NFC West Standings:

West Division

W

L

T

PCT

PF

PA

HOME

ROAD

DIV

CONF

STRK

LAST5

Arizona Cardinals Cardinals 2 0 0 1.000 40 34 1-0 1-0 1-0 1-0 W2 2-0
San Francisco 49ers 49ers 2 0 0 1.000 57 41 1-0 1-0 0-0 2-0 W2 2-0
St. Louis Rams Rams 1 1 0 .500 54 55 1-0 0-1 0-0 1-1 W1 1-1
Seattle Seahawks Seahawks 1 1 0 .500 43 27 1-0 0-1 0-1 1-1 W1 1-1

Seahawks score on special teams to get the Seattle crowd fired up to a fevered pitch.

So after two weeks who has the best defense in the NFC West?? A surprising look at the statistics will show you the Seattle Seahawks are 6th in the NFL in total defense. The highest ranking in the division. On Sunday they punched the Dallas Cowboys square in the mouth as they held the Cowboys to under 300 yards of offense in winning 27-7. You saw a team flying to the football when they burst out of the locker room. The special teams got into the act blocking a punt and returning it for a touchdown and got the 12th man into the game.

For all the talk of Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck, its time to give fellow rookie QB Russell Wilson some credit. He’s looked comfortable and hasn’t turned the football over. Did you know he has a 1.9% interception ration after two games?? Sure he has only thrown for 304 yards in two games but he has Marshawn Lynch (207 yards in 2 games) to do the heavy lifting. He will improve as the season goes on and has big play WR Sidney Rice right there to help with that development. This week is a true test as they host the Green Bay Packers. If they play with emotion and can get an early lead they could pull off another shocker. Again they need to put themselves in position to run the football at the Packers 27th against the run defense. Can they do it again?? If they do it again, how serious does the rest of the NFL have to take them?? Pete Carroll has a sneaky fast, aggressive team.

The Rams got off the canvas after a week 1 narrow defeat in Detroit and outlasted the Redskins 31-28. They had a huge game from WR Danny Amendola (the new Wes Welker) who torched the Skins for 15 rec. for 160 yards and a touchdown. However the Rams have allowed way too many yards and points per game. In week 1 they were opportunistic with 3 interceptions, including two near the goal line. Yet last week Griffin III torched them going 20 for 29 206 yards and a touchdown. His rushing for 82 yards and another 2 touchdowns kept the Rams off balance all day. Had the Redskins not incurred a dumb unsportsmanlike conduct foul, Billy Cundiff would have had a more reasonable field goal attempt. Jeff Fisher has to get his defense playing more stout and he has to get the football to RB Steven Jackson. Right now Sam Bradford is completing 71% of his passes (508 yds / 4TDs/1int) in what has become a bounce back season for him. Can they beat the Chicago Bears (with 10 days off) this week?? Not sure about that one but they better bring a defense.

Frank Gore gashed the Lions on the ground Sunday Night.

Which brings us back to last week’s marquee matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions. In a 27-19 win again showed a penchant for smash mouth straight ahead football. With teams rushing themselves in exotic 4 receiver sets, this team lines up with H-Backs, multiple tight end sets and comes off the ball like a team of yesteryear. They have a battering ram in Frank Gore (89 yards / 1TD against Detroit) and Kendall Hunter (23 yards) to keep him fresh. Understand the old axiom: Rushing the football with power wears down the defense late in games. They impose their will on their opponent.

Do you realize we have to go back 9 games (incl. playoffs) to find the last time Alex Smith threw an interception?? That’s going back to November 24th against the Ravens. How about the fact Smith has only thrown 6 interceptions in his last twenty three games?? That is a phenomenal number. His stat line is 40 of 57 (70.2%) for 437 yards and 4 touchdowns on the new season. Can you say Pro Bowl quarterback?? The Chancellor can. There are some pessimistic fans who are waiting for the old Alex Smith to show up but they need to wake up. The team still hasn’t really worked LaMichael James and Randy Moss totally in the mix yet. It’s scary as to how good this San Francisco team can be. Right now the league is playing right into their hands from a tactical standpoint. If everyone keeps lining up and passing, passing, passing…this team will continue to come off the ball and beat teams that are playing too high. Better get your pad level low.  The second you do, Smith is popping up and off play action is getting the ball downfield to one of the best tight ends in football.

Right now this is the best team in the NFL. Looking ahead, they go to Minnesota then off to the New York Jets. Unless they lose a game where they’re weary from travel, it’s hard to find a spot on their schedule where you can see a loss coming. However it looks like some of the best competition surprisingly may come from inside their own division. Arizona is looking the strongest and split with the Niners last year and don’t look now but the season finale has these two playing it out in Candlestick. Could be a big one brewing there.

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2011 NFC West Previews & Predictions

In the NFL, all divisions are not created equally. The NFC West has been in flux for the last decade without a clear cut champion. Even the 2008 Arizona Cardinals run to Super Bowl XLIII was a season where they were 9-7, and lost a late season game 47-7 to Matt Cassel and the Patriots. Last year’s 7-9 division champion Seahawks was more of a product of a young St. Louis Rams team that came up short in the end than brilliant Seattle play.  As we march into 2011, it looks like the Rams will rise from the ashes in this division.

2011 NFC WEST PREDICTION

St Louis Rams        9-7  *

Seattle Seahawks  6-10

Arizona Cardinals 5-11

San Fran 49ers       3-13

St Louis Rams have the best young quarterback in Sam Bradford and another solid season with Stephen Jackson at running back.  Last year, Coach Spagnuolo’s team had to learn how to win and did so with a 5 game improvement in the win total. If they can get a significant contribution from WR Austin Pettis, drafted from Boise St to help Bradford further develop. Folks seem to forget that Sam Bradford is only a few years removed from a Heisman trophy season that saw him throw for nearly 50 TDs as a junior. This is no fluke. Now that Chris Long is coming on (last season 8.5 sacks) and James Laurinitis leadership at linebacker, this team is on the rise and should rule the NFC West for the next few years. They have a murderous early schedule but starting with week 9, should run the table the rest of the way. The only notable game to show that they have grown up is the week 16 matchup in Pittsburgh on Christmas Eve. Just don’t be thrown off when they start out slow.

The Seahawks will look like a totally retooled team in the early part of this season and will revert  back to the enigmatic bunch we saw through much of last season. Only this time it’s going to be growing pains through breaking in Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback once sorry Tavarris Jackson underwhelms again. The second time is a charm, he helped collapse Minnesota when they kept him and let Sage Rosenfels go. So once Favre got injured…they crash landed with Jackson at the controls and that was a team with the same offensive co-ordinator and new wideout Sidney Rice there as well.  Same story, different channel.

They also have to find a leader to take over for Lofa Tatupu who was released. Aaron Curry has to move into that role and now needs to develop into the elite linebacker his draft status calls for. Will Marshawn Lynch blossom into the running back that emerged with the great run in last year’s playoff or will he revert back to the on again, off again runner he was in Buffalo?? This team will win a few games early but will descend to search mode as they need to find out who they are. They still don’t have an identity and the second half of the season will be a struggle for Coach Carroll and his team.

As for the Arizona Cardinals, congratulations on finding a quarterback in Kevin Kolb but you spent too much for him. Should have kept Rodgers-Cromartie and had the division’s best cornerback tandem with he and Patrick Peterson. Yes go ahead and start the rookie and let him take his lumps.  The Cardinals are still anemic rushing the football and teams can gang up on Larry Fitzgerald now that Steve Breaston is gone to Kansas City. Early Doucet and Andre Roberts have to have early success at receiver on the other side or this team will have a long season on offense. Kolb will be out to prove that he is a top flight quarterback and he should have kept his job in Philadelphia. Truth is, he played like he was given the job and not one that he earned. Both Mike Vick and Kafka from Northwestern had better statistics in last year’s pre-season.

Yet Kolb will solidify this franchise’s quarterback situation for the first time since Neil Lomax. Yes Kurt Warner was outstanding for 2 years, we mean a quarterback to build a franchise around for a 5-7 year run. He needs one of his other receivers to emerge to begin the process. On defense this team is in a little bit of flux so they need to break out on offense to win games. They just don’t have enough horses to do that at this point.

San Francisco needs to blow the team up and start from scratch. You have Colin Kaepernick as a quarterback, who isn’t ready, and busts Alex Smith and Troy Smith to man the position until he is. The first item up for bids is to trade Frank Gore for several draft picks to an AFC team. The Browns, Bengals, Patriots, Bills, Colts, all need a marquee running back. Several of those teams want to get over the hump and think they are a running back away, capitalize on it and get some draft picks.  Especially a team you can expect to underwhelm and get even higher draft picks from the resultant record. With an anemic offense and an underachieving receiving corp in Michael Crabtree and Ted Ginn Jr, expect 8 man fronts to limit Gore’s effectiveness anyway. He wants to be traded and won’t run hard once the team dips out of contention, so alleviate that problem.

Right now go with Vernon Davis as your leader on offense and Patrick Willis on defense. Treat the 2011 campaign as a prolonged preseason and see who will fit Coach Harbaugh’s future roster. Don’t be surprised if former Stanford Cardinal Toby Gerhart doesn’t find his way to the bay to join next year’s draft pick Andrew Luck (Stanford) if the 49ers finish 3-13 as we think they will. The rebirth of the 49ers could just be in it’s beginning phases and this is a glimpse into next year for 49er fans to get excited about.

Next up: NFC South

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2011 Seattle Seahawks Preview

What a strange and goofy odyssey the Seahawks took their fans on last year.  They became the first team in NFL History to make the playoffs with a losing record going 7-9.  This is a team that could look completely listless as they were in a Halloween loss to the Raiders 33-3, yet look like a world beater like they did in their 41-36 wildcard victory over defending champion New Orleans.  Get this…the Seahawks gave up 97 more points than they scored in 2010 (310 for / 407 opp.) while posting the 28th best offense and 27th ranked defense. Which makes one ask the question; Who in the hell are they? Are they a division champion or a team that was just the best of an NFC West that was just terrible?? In their first year under Pete Carroll few new what to expect from this team.  Now with a season under our belt, we’re going to take a shot at it…maybe

Hasselbeck throwing the rock

Quarterback: If you were to ask me this question before last year’s playoff tilt against the Saints, I’d say it might be time to see what the Seahawks have in Charlie Whitehead.  Lets face it for much of last season Hasselbeck looked uninspired. He seemed to be an aging quarterback on a fading team and out of nowhere came this masterful playoff performance. Against the Saints he threw for 272 yards, 4TDs and only 1 interception.  He was even better in the loss to Chicago where after a mediocre first half, he wouldn’t let his team quit.  His 258 yards and 3TDs withstanding, it was his leadership and inspirational play that rallied the Seahawks to finish with a flair.  What happened?? Who was the guy wearing #8 for them in the regular season??  You know the guy who threw for 3001 yards, 12 TDs with 17 interceptions and a dismal 73 quarterback rating. Lets see if we have this right…14 regular season games 12TDs v. 2 playoff games and 7TDs. Tell him they’re all playoff games and Hasselbeck may throw for over 50TDs this season.

Obviously that isn’t going to happen but there was a button pushed psychologically for Hasselbeck going into those playoffs and it might have been the way the Seahawks were being mocked by the media. If he plays like that with his back against the wall Carroll may want to keep that fire lit with a spirited competition for the starting quarterback role with Hasselbeck and Whitehurst. In the two games that Whitehurst started, he went 57 of 99 for 2TDs and 3 interceptions.  If Hasselbeck were to go down again the season won’t be lost. However they have to plan for the future and next year may need to draft a quarterback.  When the Seahawks passed on local college star Jake Locker and didnt draft a quarterback this year, we know he thinks he can get one more good year out of ole #8.  Quarterback is average in the Emerald City

Offensive Backfield: Well here we are with the University of Cal Golden Bears backfield of 2007 with Marshawn Lynch starting and Justin Forsett backing him up.  Oddly enough Forsett had slightly better numbers when he was in the lineup with a 4.4 yards per carry average.  As with the case with Hasselbeck, Lynch didn’t seem inspired until the post season.  With that thunderous 67 yard run in last year’s playoff win over the Saints, he showcased what he can do and what he possibly could be.  That has been the problem, he showed a flash here and there in Buffalo yet would slip back into an easy to tackle, marginal running back. Last year Lynch rushed for 573 yards on 165 carries for a 3.5 yard average and that has to improve for this team to return to the playoffs.

Forsett is better suited as a 3rd down back.  He shows burst, just not the bulk you want in a runner when its time for the 10 play 75 yard clock killing 4th quarter drive. Evidence of this is he only scored twice rushing the football to Lynch’s six.  He plays better in space when a defense isn’t keying on him.  He rushed for 523 yards and caught 33 passes for another 252 yards out of the backfield.  Decent but not spectacular.  At running back the Seahawks are below average.  This group just doesn’t pass the eyeball test and when focused upon is easily stopped.  As a team, they only had 6 games where the Seahawks ran for more than 100 yards.  Thats an indictment of their line but also their backs who rarely make plays in space.  Maybe thats why the roar of the crowd was so loud on that playoff run by Lynch.  This team should have drafted a running back.

Receivers: This was a position in flux over the entirety of 2010.  First they released T.J. Houshmandzadeh before the season.  They traded Deion Branch back to the New England Patriots and shuffled their receivers to the tune of 5 different starters over the course of the season. Former USC WR Mike Williams resurrected his career and was fairly productive between the 20s catching 65 passes for 721 yards yet he only scored 2 times.  Then in the draft the Seahawks draft the same type of receiver in Kris Durham who is 6’5 and 215 lbs, another possession type receiver with not much burst. Why would you need two of the same type of receiver when you lack playmakers?? Puzzling selection to say the least.

The Seahawks did have 2 younger receivers come to the forefront in Deon Butler and Ben Obomanu, who could be the match set of receivers for this team in the near future.  Butler caught 36 for 385 yards, while Obomanu caught 30 for 496 yards, and they each scored four times.  Golden Tate out of Notre Dame rounds out this group and is trying to learn the pro game at receiver after switching to receiver from running back in college.  He did grab 21 receptions for 227 yards yet showed nervous hands which is understandable for a young receiver.  He is suited to the slot receiver role in a 3 receiver set where he can come out of cuts quickly and get up field after the catch. Unless one of these receivers has a breakout year, this group is slightly below average and doesn’t pack a punch.

Offensive Line: Aha, we found the source of the offense’s problems.  Do you realize this team was 31st in rushing yards, 30th in rushing average as a team (3.7 yds per carry) and was 16th in allowing their quarterback sacked 35 times?? Come on you have to be good at one of them don’t you?? This team could only power the football for the first down 54% of the time up the middle and 57% of the time on 3rd and 2 or shorter.  When push came to shove this line didn’t get enough push. Now here are some well spent draft picks. First they took James Carpenter in the 1st round, a 6’4, 321lbs. mountain of a man who was a blocker for 2009 Heisman winner Mark Ingram at Alabama. Will he be a guard or a tackle? Hmm.. They spent their 2nd selection on Wisconsin G John Moffitt, who at 6’4 319lbs can come off the ball and punish linebackers if  he gets to the 2nd line of defense.  Hopefully this team will run the football with more regularity this season keeping pressure off these rookies when it comes to pass protection.

One of the reasons the sack total was higher than anticipated was rookie T Russell Okung settling into his LT spot.  If he meshes with the two young studs they drafted this group could come off the ball and really improve the Seahawks ability to run. The question is will the coaching staff call those running plays as often as they should? They didn’t draft these guys this high to sit the bench.  The Seahawks never adequately replaced Steve Hutchinson from a few years back.  They may have finally done so.  We’ll give the offensive line a grade of average for now until we see these guys take the field.  If they return with the regulars from last year,  completely below average.

Defensive Line: Surprisingly the Seahawks had a decent pass rush that produced 37 sacks in 2010.  Not a bad total for the league’s 27th defense.  That total was high enough to rank 13th in the NFL for rushing the passer.  Chris Clemons swo0ped in for 11 sacks, while former Colt and current pass rush specialist Raheem Brock came in for 9 sacks as well. This was the bulk of the Seahawk pass rush with several rushers coming on for 1 sack a piece.  DT Brandon Mebane teamed with Junior Savii for not only 2 sacks from the defensive tackle’s sacks they combined for 43 tackles. That isn’t enough and they need to get enough inside push to offset the pass rushing from the outside. The Seahawks were a dismal 21st against the run and couldn’t stop their opponents when they needed to.  They could use a boost here.  They did draft Levingston Lazarious in the 7th round from LSU, but at 6-4 292lbs, he seems suited to play end more than tackle.  This defensive line is below average and am surprised they didn’t make more of an attempt to address this in the draft.

Linebackers: The strength of this defense can be found in this linebacking corps. Lofa Tatupu, David Hawthorne, and Aaron Curry started all 16 games and made plays all over the field. It was OLB Hawthorne who led the team in tackles with 105 tackles, he forced 2 fumbles and did have one interception last year. Yet it looks like the brass is trying to replace him.  They used two draft picks on outside linebackers K.J. Wright in the 4th and Malcolm Smith in the 7th from Pete Carroll’s USC tree.  This could push him to have an even more spectacular 2011 campaign.  Lofa Tatupu is a solid MLB, but I expected him to make more splash plays than he does.  He’s instinctive and solid diagnosing the play but if a lineman gets on him he doesn’t shed blocks that well. He did shed enough blocks to make 88 total tackles and had 1 sack, an interception and forced one fumble. Just a little more out of Tatupu and ….

Which brings us to #1 draft pick Aaron Curry out of Wake Forest. At 6’4, 250 lbs., this is a linebacker that can really run.  He made 70 tackles, forced 2 fumbles and had 3.5 sacks when he did blitz.  His 3rd year should be a breakout year for him now that he is used to the pro game. He can get to the flank and defend against the pass and should intercept a few passes this year as well.  Last year you could see plays where he was a half step off in recognizing specific plays, with his athleticism and study those will be turnovers this year.  He should make his first pro bowl in 2010.  Watch this kid… Linebackers are good with a chance to be great if Lofa could just….

Secondary: This was an active secondary. SS Lawyer Milloy had a real good year logging 89 tackles and 4 sacks on blitzes.  He also forced two fumbles yet I can’t remember the last time I saw him intercept a pass. He has always been beatable when you can get him to cover man to man. See last year’s TD play by Greg Olsen (The U) in the playoff loss to the Bears.  He’s muscular and hips don’t swivel that well yet in a zone or phonebooth (near the line of scrimmage) he is as solid as they come.  Age is a concern though and at 38 he could age in a hurry during the season. Earl Thomas had a good year at FS leading the team with 5 interceptions and had 71 tackles which was 5th best on the team.

Corner play was up and down with Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings (The U). Jennings play picked up when he returned to the lineup from injury.  Although he missed 2 games he led the Seahawks with 13 passes defensed and may be rounding into a solid NFL corner. Trufant often got his nose dirty making 80 tackles which was 4th on the team. So where is the down side?  As a tandem, they only had two interceptions which prompted them to draft CB Richard Sherman from Stanford and CB Byron Maxwell from Clemson. One way or another they should get more active corner play.  It looks like they will move Marcus Trufant to SS to replace Milloy since he is willing to tackle and is 8 years younger.  The Seahawks are slightly above average and are the beneficiary of a weak front that doesn’t put teams in obvious passing situations. However they were exposed in the playoffs by Jay Cutler and Drew Brees and looked tired at the end of the season.  They need help from the defensive front.

Forsett

Overall: After all this research we still don’t know who the Seahawks are.  If they can get the return they expect from their top two picks on the offensive line this can be a much improved team. Lynch will have a 1,000 yard season and they could win 10 games.  Still can’t make since of their picking two linebackers when one led the team in tackles and the other is on the verge of stardom.  Why not pick up defensive line help? Puzzling… This team is puzzling and we have to wait and see which Matt Hasselbeck comes into the new season. Will they make it back to the playoffs? Still unclear however they have to watch out for the Rams.

2011 New Orleans Saints Preview

Its amazing what happens in pro football when a team becomes Super Bowl champion.  Every little nuance is studied and every small flaw gets worked on until it becomes a crack, then transformed into a team’s Achille’s heel.  However when you think about it, the same problems the Saints had in 2009 were there in 2010.

In ’09 the ball just seemed to keep bouncing their way, from the Robert Meachem stealing the ball from a Redskin who intercepted Brees then ran it in for a TD, to the tipped pass to Darren Sharper who returned it for a clinching TD in a struggle with the Dolphins. What goes up must come down and all those you climb over to get that ring are all of those who will give you their best shot on your way down.  Does it wear on a team? Week after week everyone takes their best shot and the war of attrition sets in…yes  By the end of the 2010 season the New Orleans Saints were running on empty.  We at the Taylor Blitz Times are still waiting for the Saints to tackle Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch.  With the additions and target on someone else’s back, can they liberate the NFC South mantle from the Atlanta Falcons??

Quarterback: Aside from Green Bay and New England, no team is in better shape at the quarterback position.  You could argue that Drew Brees is still the NFC ‘s best quarterback over Aaron Rodgers.  Hell the NFL for that matter. Without his steady play this team would have slid into the abyss with a running game that wasn’t as formidable as the title run the year before.

Although Brees passer rating dropped to 12th, (90.9) he threw a whopping 658 times completing 448 for 4,620 yards, 33TDs yet had 20 interceptions. Having to overcompensate for the anemic running game and being forced to throw, contributed to the high turnover totals.  Sounds like a down year coming off of his 5,ooo yard masterpiece two years before but get this… He was still 3rd in yards passing, 2nd in touchdowns thrown while leading the league in completion percentage at 68.1%.  Even in the 41-36 playoff upset loss to the Seattle Seahawks he was forced to hoist 60 passes. Far too many.  He completed 33 for 404 yards and he was masterful in that game throwing no interceptions.  He now ranks 1st in every Saints  career passing category: yards, completions, attempts and touchdown passes.

What hasn’t been showcased is how to get the best of Drew Brees as a defense.  Even last season he threw several interceptions late in games when he was forced to take chances.  Sean Payton has constructed a passing game that gets the ball out of Brees hands the instant his back foot hits the turf.  They make great use of 3 and 5 step drops and bubble screens to get the jump on opposing defenses.

Teams may be better suited to come up and press his receivers and send overload blitzes at him because the way the rules are now, he’s going to go up the field throwing 5 to 6 yard throws.  Send a series of zone blitzes and overload blitzes to rough him up seems like the only way. Otherwise its basketball on grass and you won’t stop him.  He is in his prime and barring catastrophy should have another 5 years left in him.  Without question quarterback is Super Bowl quality in New Orleans.

Offensive Backfield: After being derailed by backfield injuries, the Saints pulled the second biggest coup of the 2011 draft landing Heisman winner Mark Ingram from Alabama.  They stole a lot of thunder being made on draft day by their NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, for trading up for Julio Jones, Ingram’s teammate from the 2009 National Championship team.  This solves a tremendous problem the Saints have had for several years now: running consistently tough between the tackles.

Many think Ingram is a “can’t miss” running back and an Emmitt Smith clone.  A patient runner with short choppy steps who runs with a low pad level to prevent him from fumbling while powering forward for the tough yards.  He had a few injuries in his senior season where he rushed for 875 yards, yet dazzled in his Heisman season where he ran for 1,658 yards and 17 TDs.  The running back position in the NFL is not a position where a player grows into it. All great running backs have their best years in the first three.  Running the football, Ingram will prove to be a fit immediately.

Speaking of a fit, time to talk about a running back who doesn’t. This should spell the end for Reggie Bush who couldn’t make it work in the pros unless he was in space. A bust with a few splash plays per year doesn’t merit the $11 million he is scheduled to make this season.  He has had some impact on special teams but face it, his 36 carries for 150 yards rushing and 34 rec. for 208 yards for a combined 2 TDs is nowhere close to enough. After Mike Bell departed for Cleveland, the rushing game was turned over to Chris Ivory, who led the Saints with 716 yards, and Pierre Thomas who gained 269 more.

Yet each proved unable to handle the pounding and the Saints had to bring in former Dallas Cowboy Julius Jones off the streets to man the backfield in the playoff loss to the Seahawks.  These backs just couldn’t stay on the field and when they were, the offense couldn’t sustain drives which caused team wide problems. Having to pass so much led to being unable to control the clock which put an undersized defense on the field too much. (See early 90’s Buffalo Bills) Its a systemic solution that one solid running back, in Mark Ingram, should  solve.  At running back the Saints leaped back to very good. He can also power the ball from in tight and the Saints should improve on 9 rushing TDs.

Receivers: The beneficiaries to all this passing is a receiving corp devoid of stars yet are solid intermediate receivers.  Marques Colston led the way with 84 rec. for 1,023 yards and 7 TDs followed by Lance Moore’s 66 receptions for 763 yards with a team leading 8 touchdowns.  What is unique is Colston, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem are the same type of receiver, tall, rangy and they play relatively slow.  Its Brees throwing the ball on time that makes this receiving corp look better than it is.

Yet Moore is quick and darts in and out of small cracks to gain 40 first downs out of his 66 catches. He and Colston  each made 1st downs on their receptions 60% and 67% of the time respectively.  This team runs the bubble screen as affective as any team in football.  This was an extension of their running game in 2010.

Yet this group is slow and defenses should press this group more. Teams are playing so fearful of Brees that they immediately drop into zones when this team has no burners on it.  Defense this receiving corps with combo coverages on their slot players and get physical with your corners on slower receivers and make Brees throw out of rhythm. This pressure on the receivers would make Brees pump fake and pull the ball down allowing your pass rush extra time to sack him.

Looks like the Saints will be moving on at tight end going with Jimmy Graham as Jeremy Shockey’s successor. Their numbers were nearly identical yet Graham reached the endzone 5 times to Shockey’s 3 yet this is a salary cap issue. They get to maintain that production while paying less and thats the NFL we follow now.  Receiver is serviceable to good in the Crescent City.

Offensive Line: In the words of Vince Lombardi, football is always going to be a game of blocking and tackling.  Well this offensive line had some issues with the blocking side of that equation. This team only rushed for 1,519 yards (28th) yet averaged 4.0 yards per attempt yet had problems pushing into the endzone when the team drove down close.  The 9 rushing touchdowns (28th) this team scored is evidence of that. What is unique is between the 20s this team ran off right tackle and gained first downs 67 times which ranked 9th.  You would think that would translate down at the goal line. Puzzling.

The Saints passing statistics from a line standpoint are mixed.  One of the aspects of Sean Payton’s playbook is for Brees to get the ball out quickly with 3 and 5 step drops.  The Saints were 5th lowest in sacks allowing 26th and were ranked 11th in allowing Brees to be hit 67 times.  They need to improve on their pass protection with the Buccaneers building a strong defensive front as a division opponent and the Panthers will be building a defense under former defensive co-ordinator and current Head Coach Ron Rivera.

Teams will be coming after Brees and if he is injured the Saints would be in trouble.  The New Orleans front did have a pro bowl performer in LG Carl Nicks out of Nebraska. This line is average to below average…just doesn’t get the push when close to the goal line and those passing numbers are high for a team that throws from short quarterback drop backs.

Defensive Line: This line had a fair year yet needs some help. Of the 33 sacks the Saints collected, 21.5 came from a committee of 7 linemen with none totalling more than DT Sedrick Ellis’ 6.  Will Smith needs to stop acting and rapping and get after the damn quarterback.  His sack total of 5.5 doesn’t cut it for a former first round draft pick and is down from 13.5 from the year before. In defensive co-ordinator Greg Williams scheme, DEs are to get after the quarterback and check on the run on their way there.

This is the system Jevon Kearse broke in with. So come on Smith, get after it. The Saints spent their1st round draft pick for the services of Cal DE Cameron Jordan to help bolster the pass rush. At 6’4, 287lbs he has the size and wingspan to rush in the pros.  His father Steve Jordan was a pro bowl tight end with the Minnesota Vikings in the 80s and 90s so the athletic pedigree is there.  They also drafted Greg Romeus out of Pitt to help get after the passer. Veteran DE Alex Brown may be the odd man out.

If the Saints want to regain the NFC South crown one thing they need to do is play a little more stout up front against the run.  This team was 16th against the rush and gave up a mediocre 4.3 yards per attempt. At times this line was shoved into the linebacker and the safeties faces. With big running backs to face in the division with Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Tampa Bay’s Blount, and Carolina’s Jonathon Stewart / DeAngelo Williams combo, this has to be a priority. Surprisingly they didn’t draft a DT, yet right before the lockout they picked up Shaun Rogers, former Cleveland Brown, to help hold the middle.  At 6’3 350 lbs he should eat up blockers and allow Vilma, and Shanle to make plays. Defensive front is slightly below average and they should get another DT when free agency opens up.

Linebackers: The anchor of this defense is Pro Bowl MLB Jonathon Vilma out of the University of Miami.  He led the team with 107 tackles, had 4 sacks and forced 3 fumbles. He’s instinctive and quick yet at 230 lbs can be engulfed by blockers so its imperative the DT play improves.  Scott Shanle (76 tackles) and Danny Clark (59 tackles) are the starters on the outside. They’re solid tacklers yet rarely make big hits or splash plays.

Between the two of them there wasn’t a sack or interception turned in all year…and they still haven’t tackled Marshawn Lynch.  Saint’s brass must be in agreeance with us since they spent two draft picks here on Illinois linebackers Martez Wilson and Nate Bussey in the 3rd and 7th rounds respectively.

Linebacker is below average thanks to the outside ‘backer play.  This group needs to force more turnovers and its puzzling that they don’t since they play pretty fast.

Secondary: When a pass rush can’t get to the quarterback, the play that is most affected will be that of the secondary. The starting quartet only pulled in 5 interceptions among them.  Former Buckeyes Malcolm Jenkins and Jabari Greer each had two interceptions.  The secondary missed the veteran play of Darren Sharper at free safety, however Jenkins is a converted corner and should grow with the position.  Its a good thing SS Roman Harper likes to tackle, he gets many shots at it. Not only did he make the pro bowl in 2010, he was second on the team with 94 tackles, had 3 sacks, and forced 6 fumbles. Thats a tremendous performance.

Tracy Porter only had 1 interception in 2010 while defending 6 passes.  This is as solid a secondary as the NFC South offers.  It rates better than what is shown statistically.  Once the pass rush resumes, this team will pick off more passes.  Porter in particular since Will Smith is on the same side.

It sounds like we’re piling on Smith but one of the recipes for interceptions is for quarterbacks too throw over a disruptive, tall pass rusher. If you can’t get to the quarterback, at least get your hands up.  This is how Lester Hayes once picked off 13 passes in a season behind a 6’8 Ted Hendricks, and an Everson Walls snatched 11 the next year behind a 6’9 “Too Tall” Jones.  Smith did deflect 5 passes last year so keep watching.

Overall: This is going  to be an interesting year for the Saints.  Drew Brees enjoys being one of the faces of the league, will he turn around and hand the ball off to Mark Ingram as much as he should??  Brees like any other good athlete has an ego.  This will be a good watch to see what he audibles to and how he responds if his rhythm is thrown off with a more balanced attack.  Will Ingram fit into the passing game well enough so they can have him as an every down back? If he is platooned, the Saints could suffer from the syndrome that affected the Dallas Cowboys last year.

They telegraphed what they were going to run based on which running back was in there.  Defenses would get the jump on them. We’re still unsure at Taylor Blitz Times if they did enough on the defensive front to solidify themselves against the run.  We see a mixed year coming up with a record of 9-7 to 10-6 and another wild card berth.

Pathp
Word count: 1256 Last edited by jeftaylor on May 20, 2011 at 12:00 pm

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