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AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

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We are just hours away from one of the most anticipated conference finals in the history of the National Football League. The fifteenth meeting between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Yet these two don’t take the field against one another. One of the misleading things the media continues to miss on is to just label the record of 10 wins for Brady and 4 wins for Manning.

The Lamar Hunt Trophy is awarded to the champion of the American Football Conference.

The Lamar Hunt Trophy is awarded to the champion of the American Football Conference.

The truth in these statistics are more the quarterbacks v. the opposing defensive coordinators. The reality is Bill Belichick’s defense is 10-4 vs. Peyton and that’s where the analysis of this game begins. Over the last seven games, New England has forced 14 turnovers including 4 the last time they saw Denver. What Belichick thrives on is coaching situation football. He has to come up with schemes to confuse Manning and he has a young defense that Peyton doesn’t know. Aquib Talib will figure prominently in this game.

The team that establishes the run first wins this game. Knowshon Moreno was killing the Patriots in that earlier contest. His 224 yards was more a concession than it was a focus. Belichick did this in Super Bowl XXV and XXXI against the Bills and Rams respectively. He elected to take away the Denver receivers first. Will Peyton audible to running the football like he did on the road?? This time he’s at home in the AFC Championship Game. Are you sure he will acquiesce and not try for a great passing game against Brady??

The Patriots have evolved into a running team as of late with LaGarrette Blount pounding the football. Quiet as it’s kept, the Patriots are back to the strategem that brought Brady his 3 rings. Remember Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon?? Sure there are some plays from four and five receiver looks but they have evolved back to a power running team.

So who wins this game and why?? In a high stakes game as we stated before the match-up is the coordinators vs a given offense or quarterback. Belichick’s defenses are 10-4 against Manning which includes a win just 7 weeks ago. Tom Brady and the Patriots are 7-0 against Jack Del Rio led defenses. History can be made if Manning can become the second quarterback in history, to win 2 championships since Norm Van Brocklin in 1961, with two different teams. However Brady can become the second quarterback since Johnny Unitas to win two championships a decade apart. Those latter two are what has The Chancellor of Football excited. Peyton can win a Super Bowl in Eli’s home stadium after Eli has won one in his.

The newest commodity that can be an x factor: LaGarette Blount

The newest commodity that can be an x factor: LaGarrette Blount

With the Patriots winning situation football… Did you know the Patriots have a top ten defense in points allowed?? Belichick could be headed to his 9th Super Bowl. In his history he stopped Hall of Fame QB Jim Kelly at his zenith in Super Bowl XXV, soon to be Hall of Famer Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XXXVI, and Hall of Fame QB Joe Montana in an NFC Championship. He will come up with a scheme to make Manning nervous an out of rhythm at critical times. The Broncos will struggle tackling Blount and the Patriots will advance to the sixth Super Bowl of the Belichick/ Brady era…38-34

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The Chancellor’s Take on Peyton Manning

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The old NFL logo

The old NFL logo

When it comes to NFL football no one has watched more games and studied the game more than The Chancellor of Football. It has always been the great escape for me to study the players, analyze games, dissect teams and playing styles of different eras. I can think back to the early 80’s when someone was watching “The Cosby Show” in the other room, I had a ton of paper out drawing up the “46 defense” and studying Bears games I recorded over in mine.

If I didn’t have a football video game going, I was outside playing it with friends. All  the while my mind was studying the nuances of the game. Then the study migrated to understanding the dynamics of coaches, the sociological aspects of football, the psyche of players, and the psychological make up of a team. What made the player tick…and why certain players received the coverage they did.

One of the real reasons I have been such a harsh Peyton Manning critic is the Alpha or Beta quarterback argument. He’s proven to be an alpha quarterback obviously but I wasn’t going to give him a pass because he was Archie’s son the way the mainstream media did.  I have never been a media darling type. I abhor it. The reason I gravitated to sports and football in general from the beginning was the exploits the athletes made were earned on the field of endeavor. Not what someone made up for them like a Hollywood movie or covered favorably when others are tortured by media types for the same short comings. Take a look at this comment from Facebook earlier when I described Matt Schaub in yesterday’s article. The Beta Quarterback.

“To come off this list you have to start winning the big games. I knew Schaub would regress for one simple reason. He NEVER beat the bully on his block. The Indianapolis Colts own him and even retooled on the run. He NEVER bested the Colts in significant games while Peyton Manning was there and now a whole new regime is in place and he still hasn’t grown. Pundits started to pick the Texans as a possible Super Bowl team because of other talent on the squad. Truth is…he’s a beta qb until he proves it beating good teams like Joe Flacco did last year. Only one way past the bully…you have to kick his ass…. If you don’t, you remain in this twilight.”

Peyton Manning with his college coach Phil Fulmer.

Peyton Manning with his college coach Phil Fulmer.

Think back to Peyton Manning’s inability to beat Florida when he was at Tennessee. The Chancellor of Football watched “the next big thing” all throughout his college career. I still have the highlights recorded when he and Jay Graham powered past Eddie George, Terry Glenn and the 4th ranked Buckeyes in the Outback Bowl in 1996…yet I digress

The fundamental flaw to NEVER take down your bully on your block goes with you psychologically for a lifetime. That bully is just substituted later by other people. i.e. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Yet in his coverage the mainstream media wanted to “make” him a champion before he became one.

What got his career launched is he played with 3 Hall of Fame talents that didn’t get the credit for it. Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison. Faulk, who in 1998 nearly had the same stats as he did when the St Louis Rams won it all in 1999. He had 1319 yards to go with 86 receptions and 908 more yards and 10 TDs. Sure a baby faced rookie Manning showed promise, but he threw a rookie record 28 interceptions. Yet you didn’t hear of that through the mainstream media. However Kurt Warner in 1999, who had never started in the NFL won the Super Bowl the following season with Faulk.

Marshll had been relieved of duty when the Colts traded him to the Rams to so they could draft Edgerrin James. In 1999, James became the first rookie to lead the NFL in  rushing in nearly 20 years. In fact he joined Jim Brown, Earl Campell, and Eric Dickerson as the only runners to lead the league in rushing in their first two seasons. That is dating back to 1957. Yet all the coverage went to Manning as though Edgerrin wasn’t even there. James is one of only 3 running backs (Barry Sanders & Eric Dickerson) to have 4 seasons of over 1,500 yards rushing yet when we suggest he’s a Hall of Fame player, some scoff at the notion. Why?? All the coverage was on Peyton Manning and the mainstream media NEVER fed this information to the football masses. Never. He also went on to a Super Bowl without Manning with Kurt Warner ironically in Arizona 2008.

Then you have the quiet Marvin Harrison. Although the end of his career was somewhat shrouded with the backdrop of a gang related shooting death. This performer is the current record holder for receptions in an NFL season with 143 in 2002, and caught 1,102 passes for 14,580 yards and 128 touchdowns during his career. Just about the same as new Hall of Fame enshrinee Cris Carter, and finally we’re hearing about his Pro Football Hall of Fame candidacy. This was a #1 draft pick and All America talent at Syracuse catching passes from Donovan McNabb. Yet here is another that rarely received coverage because Manning was the national media’s end all be all when it came to covering the Indianapolis Colts.

The biggest issue is how the media chose to cover him as they thought he would be and not cover him fairly for how he performed. His first forays into the playoffs were underwhelming to say the least. In ’99 when they were the 2nd seed, they only managed 13 at home in a loss to the Titans. Three years later came the worst playoff loss of this millenia in a 41-0 loss to the New York Jets in the Meadowlands. Ironically the site of this year’s Super Bowl. They only gained 167 yards total in that game which was nearly a record low performance. Yet you never heard of these performances or the fact he has a record 11 playoff losses. Why?? Too much jock sniffing by the national media. Guys who wished they were Peyton Manning instead of just covering him.

One of the reasons you're seeing a record breaking season for Manning started here. The 2003 AFC Championship Game.

One of the reasons you’re seeing a record breaking season for Manning started here. The 2003 AFC Championship Game.

Keep in mind he was favored in Super Bowl XLIV and fell behind the New Orleans Saints. Marching for the tying touchdown in the fourth quarter he threw the pick six to Tracy Porter to seal the Colts fate. What would the media have said had that been Eli Manning?? Tony Romo?? Jay Cutler?? They would have buried him like he was Rex Grossman. You have to keep in mind the NFL offices pay attention to media coverage. We saw how much sway media had when the Colts lost the 2003 AFC Championship 24-14 to Brady’s Patriots.

The immediate coverage was on how the Patriots held their receivers and stretched the 5 yard “chuck zone” further downfield. Complaints from the Colts were all over ESPN and dominated the airwaves leading into Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Patriots and Panthers. Ironically they set a Super Bowl record with both quarterbacks throwing for more than 300 yards for the first time in history.

That off-season the NFL stated they were going to reinforce that rule just because of the complaints from Manning and the Colts. No one was able to touch his receivers without a flag and ironically this was the season he broke Marino’s touchdown record of 48. Funny, he couldn’t come within 16 touchdowns of it in his 6 previous seasons.

Is Manning a Hall of Fame??? Absolutely

Is Manning a Hall of Famer??? Absolutely

The coddling of Manning and the favorable officiating is why the Broncos receivers are able to run pass interference routes at their leisure. Whenever you hear these announcers say “pick” its a form of offensive pass interference. Ironically the league hasn’t had a knee jerk reaction to reinforce those rules. So the record book has shattered from this.

The real problem here is it cheapens the record book and cheapens the league as a whole. Just like rules for Michael Jordan ruined the NBA for purists, the same thing is happening in the NFL. What you’re doing is turning the sport into a television show. One where his games are officiated differently than other teams to manufacture a successful environment. Don’t tell me it’s a quarterback driven league when there are just as many who tune in for a stout defense or a record breaking runner. Then you hear the corporate types, who are wholly responsible for this, talk about ratings. Listen, in 1986 the Chicago Bears won Super Bowl XX in front of 120 million viewers. At the time on American television, the top 20 watched shows were 18 Super Bowls, the MASH finale, and Roots. The ratings have always been there, so come off that excuse.

Where Peyton Manning was / is concerned he’s given a pass for his flaws and celebrated for what he has done right as though it’s never been done before. Is he really better than Joe Montana when it comes to pre-snap reads?? He’s a better gun slinger than Dan Fouts?? A better deep ball than Terry Bradshaw or Johnny Unitas?? Is he better than Joe Montana at any aspect of quarterbacking?? I know he wasn’t better than Dan Marino in his prime. Yet you hear these pundits wax philosophical as though there is no footage of the 77 years of the NFL before his arrival.

Well here at Taylor Blitz Times, we do have tons of footage of all the greats. No, Manning isn’t the first who handled pre-snap adjustments. Audibles have been a part of the league for greater than 50 years.  The one description I love is how he plays with what scouts call “nervous feet”, which was to a quarterbacks detriment. All of a sudden pundits helped change that to a positive attribute.  Go figure.  He is a Hall of Fame player but keep it in perspective from a historical sense. Everything happening today isn’t the greatest ever seen and make sure you cover players fairly for what they do. After all it is a sport, right??

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AFC Divisional Playoff: Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

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After one of the greatest come from behind victories in NFL history, the Colts have earned a first class trip to New England. Their mission, should they choose to accept it, is to stop the Patriots from making a 3rd straight trip to the AFC Championship Game. The Colts are riding an emotional high but do they have the horses to win a high stakes playoff game against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady??

Andrew Luck came of age in last week's comeback. The Colts will always believe they can win from this point forward, no matter the deficit.

Andrew Luck came of age in last week’s comeback. The Colts will always believe they can win from this point forward, no matter the deficit.

One of the items that gets lost in the aftermath of last week is Indy gave up a near playoff record 513 yards and 44 points. They gave up 378 yards passing and 4 touchdowns to Alex Smith at home, and now they plan to improve on that against Brady on the road?? Never forget weaknesses are magnified in the playoffs. Hard to improve on the 20th ranked defense when they’re not playing well.

Don’t forget the last time Tom Brady saw the Indianapolis Colts, he draped 59 points on them. Of course fans will say Luck is playing better now. However he doesn’t play linebacker or cover receivers. Last week, Pro Bowl DE Robert Mathis had a timely sack and forced fumble, but that was it.

Legarrette Blount has played like Dorsey Levens of late.

Legarrette Blount has played like Dorsey Levens of late.

Now some may point out the Patriots aren’t the same team they were a year ago and they’re right. Brady has had a modest season by his standards. Yet the Pats have shifted strategies. In their last two games against the Ravens and Buffalo Bills, they rushed for 142 and 267 yards respectively. Those were the 10th and 12th best defenses also, Indy’s is 20th. One was getting revenge on the defending champions that ended their season last year, and the other was against a division rival playing in the equivalent of their Super Bowl.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will pressure Andrew Luck today.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will pressure Andrew Luck today.

The Colts will need to run the football and control the tempo of the game. If not Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will come after Luck. Their not as flashy as a Robert Mathis but they did combine for 19.5 sacks 3 forced fumbles and 4 fumble recoveries. Add to that the genius of Belichick when it comes to taking away an opponents best receiver. He will keep TY Hilton from getting open which will make Luck hold the football even longer which will allow the rush more time to get there.

Everyone has their eye on Andrew Luck but The Chancellor of Football’s is on the defensive alignment and assignments that Belichick will throw at him. I have gone on record calling him the greatest coach of the last 50 years in the NFL. He configured a 2 man line defense that slowed the 90 Bills in Super Bowl XXV. The week before he stopped Joe Montana and the Niners from 3-peating with normal 3-4 and safeties over the top. He stopped The Greatest Show on Turf when he repeated his Super Bowl XXV performance upsetting the Rams in XXXVI. He spent the last decade keeping Peyton, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison from reaching the Super Bowl while he won 3. Each of those teams had 3 Pro Football Hall of Fame talents on those rosters.. Do you really think he can’t stop a second year quarterback and a modest talent in Hilton??

Look for LaGarrette Blount to get the football on a rainy day. The Colts weren’t tackling well last week and will struggle stopping the run. In a physical game the Patriots will win 31-13. What happened to this team when they played earlier against the Seahawks and 49ers?? They rose to the occassion then and Head Coach Chuck Pagano needs them to wake up and get back to that tonight.

Who do you have in this game??

 

 

 

 

Overcoaching In the NFL

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One of the more unique pitfalls many NFL teams fall into is the inability to formulate a gameplan around the personnel they have. Too often on Sundays we’re seeing teams with inexperienced quarterbacks lined up in a Pistol (short shotgun), regular shotgun accompanied with 4 and 5 receiver sets.  Then you see these elaborate play sheets coaches have to chronicle what they would do in down and distance situations if….. Stop!! There is no need to go into a football game with 200 plays and formations.

Tom Matte's famous wristband resides in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Tom Matte’s famous wristband resides in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Too many NFL offensive co-ordinators and head coaches want to be seen as geniuses on ESPN is where this is coming from. If you follow the evolution of the play sheet, you had a series of formations and plays that were manageable. Have you ever taken a look at the famous “wrist-band” of Tom Matte?? A former Baltimore Colt running back who was forced to play quarterback when quarterbacks Johnny Unitas and Gary Cuozzo were injured in 1965.

As you can see there were 5-7 plays for each down and distance circumstance. Head Coach Don Shula came up with the concept so that Matte could call the plays necessary to move the offense. The Colts lost a 13-10 playoff game for the Western Conference that sent Green Bay to the NFL championship game and Matte’s wristband went into NFL lore.

What is interesting is the wristband disappeared for more than a decade in the NFL . As we fast forward through the evolution of football, more and more NFL coaches had sheets that they would use to send the play in. It really started to gather steam when the late Bill Walsh decided to script his first 15 plays back in 1979. That script accompanied down and distance play situations and the the list became a full fledged chart on the sideline. Walsh was truly a genius reviving the principles learned from Paul Brown to be effective in the modern game.

Here is an example of what one of these play charts these coaches carry around looks like.

Here is an example of what one of these play charts these coaches carry around looks like.

From that point on every coach had to have a chart to show he knew his craft as well as Walsh did. At least imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Yet where has that left us?? How many times have you watched a team burn multiple time outs because they couldn’t get their personnel in fast enough?? How often have you watched a team struggle for 28 minutes on offense and finally click in a 2 minute drive before the end of a half? Before the end of a game?? Why??

The late great college basketball coach John Wooden once said there was too much overcoaching in the modern game of basketball. The Chancellor definitely feels the same thing is happening in the NFL. It’s ironic when a team can’t make heads or tails with what their game plan is and then start moving the ball in the final few minutes.  Why was Viking quarterback Matt Cassel in shotgun formation more than 20 times when he has one of history’s finest backs right there in Adrian Peterson?? Overcoaching!! And it’s running rampant throughout the NFL.

Even Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady has a "Tom Matte" wristband the size of a bible.

Even Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady has a “Tom Matte” wristband the size of a bible.

Everyone wants to line up as though they have Tom Brady or Peyton Manning at the helm when in truth, only 10 to 12 teams have quarterbacks who can be trusted. Whether we’re talking Alpha or Beta quarterbacks, these guys can be trusted to win games on the road or at home. Most of these teams would benefit from simplifying their offense.

Players need to be playing, not thinking. Go back to last Sunday’s match-up between the New Orleans Saints vs the New England Patriots. All game long, young Patriot receivers were running the wrong routes, dropping passes. When the game was on the line and the routes were simplified…bang receivers were holding on to the football. Brady threw the game winning 17 yard strike to Kenbrell Thompkins (who?) with just :05 left.

Even the late Tom Landry had to “dumb down” his offense for a young Roger Staubach to thrive.

If you have a veteran quarterback, let him call the plays. In the most critical juncture (under 2 minutes) he calls them anyway. He should during the middle of the game as well. If you are grooming a young signal caller, it’s best to get him acclimated from more traditional sets. Sure you open the offense with a few open formations here and there. Yet watch how the Colts are grooming Andrew Luck. They’re using a fleet of running backs to pound the defense and allow Luck to perform play action throws against simplified reads. If you have watched, Luck has improved every single week and is set to have his biggest game of his young career this week. He and the Indianapolis Colts host the Denver Broncos as Peyton returns to Indy. A winnable game if they stick to a simplified approach.

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Top Ten Quarterbacks Going Into 2013

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NFL_Logo_NewWhen you’re outlining the play of NFL quarterback, you have to assess how the player will do going into the given season based upon performance and relative age. Will the quarterback break down during the season if he’s older?? What will be his prospects based upon the receiving talent coming into the new year.

The Chancellor of Football bases his analysis on a multitude of things. How does the quarterback fare statistically and is he still in his prime?? With Robert Griffin III just coming back from serious knee surgery, we left him off of this list. Everyone has their opinions and without further adieu here is ours.

Honorable Mention. Matt Schaub – Houston Texans: This has been a model quarterback in the regular season over the last 5 seasons, 3 of which he threw for more than 4,000 yards. His listing here is he has yet to gain a signature win in the playoffs. At 31 years of age we may have seen the best of Schaub who’s prime is passing with each day. This season is going to make or break his career in Houston where it’s Super Bowl or bust with an aging team.

Colin's 181 yard rushing performance was a transcendent performance.

Colin’s 181 yard rushing performance was a transcendent performance.

10. Colin Kaepernick -San Francisco 49ers: Now the knock on him is he hasn’t played a complete season as a starting quarterback. It doesn’t matter, you can’t underscore the performance he had in last year’s playoff run. The Pistol formation and the read option is a part of the NFL as it evolves into a space game.

Clogged lines of scrimmage is a thing of the past outside of obvious goal line and 3rd or 4th and shorts. Kaepernick proved last year he developed touch on his intermediate passing game and learned to exploit Vernon Davis during the playoff run. This year will be a set back season with the loss of Michael Crabtree. Could pass for 3,000 and run for 1,000 with a healthy season. You can’t coach speed…he breaks containment…good bye.

9. Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens: When you come through a post season with 1,140 yards 11 touchdowns and no interceptions, it’s hard not to anoint a quarterback among the league’s elite. Not so fast. He only completed 59% of his passes in the regular season which is what he had as a percentage in the playoffs. His security blanket in Anquan Boldin is running routes 2,000 miles to the west. This will have an affect on Flacco coming into 2013.

Think back to every tight situation the Ravens were in, who did Flacco turn to? He turned to Boldin where he hadn’t in years past. See pass to Lee Evans at the end of 2011 AFC Championship Game. Think back to last year’s Super Bowl when the 49ers made it to 31-29. Flacco had a key third down where he needed to keep the Niner’s offense off the field: Who did he go to even with tight coverage?? Boldin. He fought for the ball and a key first down. According to ESPN, he completed 62% of his passe attempt to Boldin and only 48% of his passes to every other Raven.

It took him nearly 5 years to develop a trust for Boldin in key situations. So where do we go from here?? He does have Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith to throw to but how bad will he miss Boldin. Today Jones fails the conditioning contest as the Ravens reported to training camp. Does he turn back into the dink and dunk quarterback throwing outlet passes to Ray Rice or keep throwing down-field?? This will be a season of growing pains early on for him and why he’s 8th on this list.

Mannung delivered in year one as the Broncos finished 13-3 in 2012.

Mannung delivered in year one as the Broncos finished 13-3 in 2012.

8. Peyton Manning -Denver Broncos: In the twilight of his career, he had one of his greatest statistical seasons in 2012. However a closer look at his play down the stretch and against teams in particular, lowered his ranking. His season mirrored that of the Broncos overall, they feasted on a lot of patsies to pad their stats. In the last five weeks of the season, he faced the Chiefs twice, Oakland, Baltimore, and Cleveland or the teams that were 12th (twice), 32nd, 20th, 17th, and 25th against the pass. Not a strong group as the team went 5-0 down the stretch. The only reason the 2-14 Chiefs pass defense wasn’t rated lower (12th), they were a team that had given up at that point of the season, were behind and opponents weren’t passing.

Yet if you look at his play against the five playoff teams faced, two of his worst outings were in this pack. He threw 3 interceptions losing in Atlanta, and 2 more in a 31-23 win against Cincinnati. Still he’s a Super Bowl caliber quarterback in the early part of the season and the AFC West will be better prepared for Manning 2.0. His arm may give out late on him again and he’s had some issues with his neck and arm this off-season. He’s never been that good in cold games and if the Broncos did make it to this year’s Super Bowl, good luck with the weather in New Jersey.

7. Matt Ryan-Atlanta Falcons: ‘Matty Ice” has grown every single year in the NFL and is this season’s version of Joe Flacco. He finally won his first playoff game and has had numerous 4th quarter drives as well. He had to lift his Falcons with a playoff comeback against the Seahawks in the final stanza as well. Last year he completed a whopping 68.6% of his passes for 32 touchdowns. One problem he has is he disappears in the middle of games which necessitates the need to come from behind. If he can make it to Super Bowl XLVIII, this list definitely gets revamped.

Center Max Unger was an All Pro and protected Russell Wilson like The Hope Diamond.

Center Max Unger was an All Pro and protected Russell Wilson like The Hope Diamond.

6. Russell Wilson- Seattle Seahawks: One of the biggest beneficiaries to RGIII when it comes to this list is Wilson. After all his team did beat Washington in the playoffs and took a late 28-27 lead against the Falcons in the divisional round, and appeared headed to the NFC Championship Game as well. However folks that want to talk about Andrew Luck and RG III, forgot that it was Wilson who had the best rookie QB season in NFL history. Not only did he tie Peyton Manning’s 1998 record of 26 TDs thrown, he only had 10 interceptions as compared to the 28 Manning threw. All this while throwing for 3,118 yards and rushing for 489 yards and another 4TDs. He also has Percy Harvin to run after the catch for him at least 65-70 times coming up. He could be Super Bowl bound this year also.

5. Ben Roethlisberger -Pittsburgh Steelers: The quarterback that is always left out of the conversation when you talk about the NFL’s best signal callers. One might look at this list and say Big Ben was only 7-6 as a starter last year. Yet those same pundits forget that the Steelers put in a new offense, one he didn’t favor. Yet in that crucible he still completed 63% of his passes for 26 TDs and only 8 interceptions. Uh…excuse me those TD and interception numbers were the second best of his 9 year career. What do you think he’ll do as an encore now that he has a running game with the arrival of LeVeon Bell??

Brady will be pointing out more than protections and who is the "Mike" linebacker in 2013.

Brady will be pointing out more than protections and who is the “Mike” linebacker in 2013.

4. Tom Brady -New England Patriots: It’s hard to believe but Brady could have and should have fallen farther on this list. No time in NFL history has a high ranking offense (#1) returned with 91% of their starters gone. We’re in uncharted waters here. However the Patriots drafted him two dynamite receivers in Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. Yet it remains to be seen how they’ll develop. The same can be said of the prospects of Gronkowski returning from multiple surgeries. Will Danny Amendola live up to the $31 million contract as well?? Odds are 2 of the 4 will come through but that would mean a drop from an offense that has scored over 500 points in 3 straight years.

Could you imagine The Greatest Show on Turf going into a new season and Kurt Warner didn’t have Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt, Az Zahir Hakim, and Marshall Faulk?? That is the only equivalent to what Brady faces going into the 2013 season. Why?? This was the only other team that scored 500 points in 3 successive seasons. Brady has played well with other receivers but remember last year the offense went back to Wes Welker once the tight ends were in the infirmary. Welker is in Denver now…so we shall see.

3. Drew Brees- New Orleans Saints: The Saints are coming off a year where Brees had to overcome Head Coach Sean Payton enduring a season long suspension. Now he gets his confidante back yet loses his Pro Bowl LT Jermon Bushrod in free agency to the Chicago Bears. They did retain WR Marques Colston but they found themselves over the cap and couldn’t help their $100 million quarterback out much.

The Saints face what all Super Bowl champions wind up facing. You try so hard to field the team that won the Super Bowl in ensuing years, that you forget to make adjustments to all the moves opponents are making to knock you off. So while they kept WR Marques Colston, in comes CB Darrelle Revis and S Dashon Goldson to Tampa Bay.

This illustrates how Brees will stay down a notch in 2013 like he did last year. He threw for 19 interceptions as he tried to rally the Saints from deficits his defense gave away. With 5,177 yards and 43 touchdowns this should be the #1 quarterback. With the flux on the line, better defenses within the division, and porous defense, he’s going to throw more interceptions than he should and keep him 3rd on this list.

If Rodgers continues at this pace, his career statistics could be staggering.

If Rodgers continues at this pace, his career statistics could be staggering.

2. Aaron Rodgers -Green Bay Packers: You’re looking at the game’s statistical anomaly in Rodgers. Do you realize he’s only thrown 14 interceptions vs 84 touchdowns over the last two years?? Only Drew Brees has stayed on such an extended run of excellence. Last year Rodgers completed an astonishing 67.2% of his passes for 4,295 yards. So why just a number two ranking??

The first is Rodgers is a tremendous quarterback as long as the Green Bay Packers have a lead. When others get in front he doesn’t bring them from behind. The same can be said if a defense knocks he and the Packers offense off of their timing early, they stay a bit off pace the rest of the game. Take a look at their losses to the San Francisco 49ers to bookend the season. In week one, the Niners jumped on top 16-7 in Lambeau before halftime. It took until 6:00 to go in the game before the Packers saw the endzone in a 30-22 loss. In the playoff loss they fell behind 24-21 and couldn’t muster a touchdown for nearly the entire second half. By then the 49ers were on cruise control 45-24.

Sure it can be harsh using a comparison for Rodgers against the eventual NFC Champion 49ers, but Russell Wilson clobbered them 42-13 on Sunday Night Football. Eli Manning danced over them 26- 3 in Candlestick. You want to believe you are the best you need to prove you can beat the best and Rodgers’s Packers fell short of that in 2012.

Last year Rodgers and the Packers lost 5 times, each to a  team that made the playoffs, while going 1-2 against quarterbacks on this list. The lone win?? A 28-27 win over Brees and New Orleans. Now Donald Driver retires and Rodgers favorite target of the last four years, Greg Jennings, signs with the hated Vikings. There is some speculation the team may move Jermichael Finley as well. This will be a new year for him now with a few rookie linemen protecting him also. He’s number one on a lot of lists….just not at the Taylor Blitz Times for all we just pointed out to you.

Eli Manning's late game heroics make him the best in the NFL today.

Eli Manning’s late game heroics make him the best in the NFL today.

1.Eli Manning-New York Giants: Our CEO lobbied loudly for Eli to be the number one quarterback on this list. Yet like we offered up front, this isn’t a lifetime achievement award but we are talking about a two time Super Bowl MVP. What separates Eli from his contemporaries is how he’s at his best against the highest level of competition, and his performance at the end of games. So you forgot that Eli and the Giants routed future NFC Champion San Francisco 26-3, routed Drew Brees and his Saints 52-27, and head slapped the Packers 38-10 last year. That’s #2 and 3 on this list he beat head to head in 2012.

Last year’s Pro Bowl status was actually cemented in week 2, when he threw for 245 yards in the fourth quarter to bring the Giants back to win 41-34. He finished with 510 yards passing & came within 44 yards of Norm Van Brocklin’s 62 year old record of 554. One of the NFL’s oldest records.  The Giants scored 25 4th quarter points. Yikes!

In that game, the nerves of steel he flashed on two Super Bowl winning drives before, was on full display and has won over some critics. Five weeks later, Eli was behind late in his first high profile game against RGIII’s Redskins, and he struck again. Down 23-20 with 1:27 left, the Giants were pinned to their own 20 yard line. Where other quarterbacks are conservative with their throws trying to get into field goal range, Manning struck a thunderous blow by going 77 yards for the winning touchdown with a bomb to Victor Cruz. Ballgame!! He caught the safety cheating up and applied a sword to the heart. The New York Football Giants are never out of a game with Manning at the helm. They came from behind 3 times last year.

Others don’t realize how durable he is. He hasn’t missed a game in 8 years and now he has been to the last two Pro Bowls. His best receiver Victor Cruz just signed a $46 million contract keeping him in New York along with WR Hakeem Nicks. He’s a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime and he will win a 3rd Super Bowl for the Giants within the next 3 years. Possibly this year in his own stadium. Do you realize he’s the only quarterback in the top 5 of this list who returns with his top receivers intact?? What will this list look like next year??

So that’s it… Our 2013 list…

Epilogue: Ron Jaworski picks Eli 8th in his selection going into 2013. Absolutely the dumbest analysis I have heard in nearly a decade. Just a year removed from his second Super Bowl ring I offered this in the Giants 2012 team preview — “Get used to it Giant fans, Manning is like a great “B” student. He will stumble on some assignments but he’s a great test taker and comes through in the end. Do you realize Manning is now 7-1 in postseason games away from the Meadowlands? He now has postseason wins over an 18-0 Patriot team in Super Bowl XLII, and an upset over a 15-1 Packers team in last year’s playoff.  He is the only quarterback in NFL history to defeat 5 postseason foes with records of 13-3 or better.  No one even comes close to that.”

Since he’s not the sexiest player in some sportswriters eyes, no one is talking about the fact he could possibly become the first quarterback in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl in his own home stadium. This isn’t the Cowboys and Tony Romo hoping against common sense two seasons ago when the big game was in Dallas. We’re talking about a two time Super Bowl MVP who could tie Joe Montana if he gets there and captures that award again. Recognize greatness when you see it…and don’t give him the ball for a final drive within striking distance either.

Next: Top ten running backs going into the 2013 season

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2013 New England Patriots Preview – Bill Belichick’s Greatest Challenge

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How tortured was Bill Belichick when he watched a less talented team in the Baltimore Ravens finally get past his New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game?? He would have had a different game plan had he made the Super Bowl and faced Colin Kaepernick a second time. It’s been his history. He’s in the midst of rebuilding the Patriots defense with many young defensive players maturing. Here at Taylor Blitz Times, our CEO had this team picked to win last year’s Super Bowl. With a solid quiet off-season, who could possibly get in the Patriot’s way?? Uhhh…. did we say quiet??

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

For once the Patriots have had a tumultuous off-season and we have to see how this affects the team. In the past there were surprising cuts like Lawyer Milloy’s release just before the 2003 season opener. Yet that’s just it. That move was right before the season, where preparing for a regular season opponent kept players from dealing with it too much. Now TE Aaron Hernandez, who may have to step up if Rob Gronkowski is slow to recover from surgery, has been arrested for first degree murder. What will happen to his two TE offense now?? No Wes Welker to turn to as Belichick did last year when injuries hit the tight end position.

Do we know if there is lingering fallout from Welker’s departure?? How could one who produced so much for this organization be so disregarded at the negotiating table?? Now Danny Amendola is the big ticket receiver and he comes in with marginal credentials. Teammates are definitely looking at that. By the way, Gronkowski is laying on the table after surgery on his forearm and now another on his back. When will he come back?? Will we have the old Gronk when he does come back??

With this latest situation with Hernandez, it throws the offense for a complete loop personnel and practice wise. When Ray Lewis went through his arrest and trial it started in January and was over with by May. All of this after Belichick diffused the media situation when he signed Tim Tebow, now questions arise about where will he play. The Patriots completely cut ties and released a disgraced Hernandez. Now does this slow the decision to trade backup QB Ryan Mallett as many Patriot insiders believe??

Keep in mind, this isn’t 2003 where the Patriot locker room was a veteran laden group with Tedi Bruschi, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, and an in-coming Rodney Harrison. This is a young group and this will have some affect on the team overall. Sure they have Tom Brady, but we’re talking leaders within the rank and file of the Patriots. A soon to be 36 year old quarterback isn’t the same as a 36 year old Ray Lewis inspiring the rank and file of the Ravens. Not raising the physicality of his football team. Once you think about it, maybe the Patriots can learn something from those Ravens that beat them last year. This could be Belichick’s greatest coaching challenge.

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

Quarterback: Think back to the early part of this off-season. Tom Brady renegotiated his contract to offer the cap relief he believed would keep Wes Welker in the fold. At best they would be able to acquire a top notch receiver to go with the continuity they had at tight end. Now Hernandez is released, Welker is in Denver, Brandon Lloyd released, and Gronk still recovering. ESPN’s Numbers Never Lie put out a stat last week: Of the 346 receptions made by Patriots WR/TE, 91% were by players currently injured or no longer on the roster. Welcome to the summer of Tom Brady’s discontent.

To underscore the enormity of the situation, Brady is coming off back to back seasons of 5,235 yards with 39 touchdowns in 2011, and 4,827 yards and 34 touchdowns last year. The Patriots scored 513 points in 2011 then 557 last year. After a 3rd straight 500 point season, they equaled the 3 straight years of 500 point seasons of the St Louis Ram’s Greatest Show on Turf.

Now he has a short off-season to get to know a new bunch of receivers. With his place in history already secured, this could prove to be his greatest challenge as well. The key to getting to Brady has been to clog his underneath patterns and allow the rush to get to him. Once he’s hit in the legs he does look down at the rush. He’s going to need players making the right sight adjustments with him this year and there will be more breakdowns or playcalling will limit the offense. The Patriots are still Super Bowl caliber at quarterback but will his new personnel keep him from reaching that game itself??

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Offensive Backfield:  One position that is solid on this side of the ball is running back. Third year back Stevan Ridley proved to be an effective runner after a 293 attempts for 1,263 yards and 12 TD performance in 2012. The one thing he will have to do is pick up the receptions out of the backfield (40) that left with the release of Danny Woodhead. Yet let’s face facts, when Woodhead was in the game the Patriots were going to pass the football.

Going into 2013, most fans outside of the North east remember Ridley from that crushing hit taken in the AFC Championship Game from the Ravens Bernard Pollard. To that avail, Belichick traded for LeGarrette Blount formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the heavy carries.  At 6’0 247 lbs, Blount is a heavy hitter between the tackles. Once you throw in a Shane Vereen and you can see the Patriots will be solid at running back. Or in our eyes playoff quality.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Receivers: Now with Wes Welker running routes for Peyton Manning 2000 miles away, Aaron Hernandez getting used to life on cell block B, Brandon Lloyd released, and Rob Gronkowski recovering who is Brady to throw to?? Well “The Hoodie” has brought in a few receivers in the draft in Aaron Dobson (2nd round) and Josh Boyce (4th round) to accompany Amendola to camp. These guys absolutely have to get in camp and develop their timing with Brady. Everything from audibles to sight adjustments to non-verbal communication to keep from slowing this offense down.

Amendola will play the slot in 3 receiver sets and will be the “Z” in traditional formations. Dobson and his 6’3 frame is thought to be the “X” and has decent speed (4.4/40). Boyce has great speed (4.38 / 40) and looks to play in multiple receiver sets unless he unseats Dobson as a starter.  He presents the deep threat that hasn’t been in Foxboro since Randy Moss departure. This has been an obvious weakness in recent years as teams sat on all the underneath routes in every one of their postseason defeats. If Dobson is slow to develop, Donald Jones should figure prominently or Michael Jenkins formerly of the Falcons. These would be steps back however.

To team with Gronkowski at TE will be Michael Hoomanawanui, Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard or possibly a move here with Tim Tebow. Or at least the competition will include these men. When in reality, Hernandez’s skill set can’t be matched by any of these players. None have even been long time starters and are all mediocre journeymen. Expect a slow descent on the use of the 2 TE offense or a huge drop in production if they try to stay with it. Receiver has dropped to below average in Foxboro.

Offensive Line:  This group won the John Madden award for the best set of protectors a few seasons ago and wasn’t too far off that performance in 2012. Last year they were 6th in sacks allowed with 27 and tied for 11th in quarterback hits allowed with 67. However if the receivers don’t develop outside, these numbers will go up. Brady isn’t that mobile and at 35 years of age, this would be the wrong time to take more hits. These numbers were made better by the ability to 1…2…3 quick pass to Welker, or Hernandez that may no longer be there.

Where this group is tremendous is their run blocking from passing formations. They paved the way for 2,184 yards and 25 touchdowns. Most of which came from running out of the shotgun and multiple receiver sets. However in power rushing situations on 3rd/4th and 2 or less, this group only converted on 56% of the time to the strong side. That isn’t enough. Although they re-signed RT Sebastian Vollmer, there are rumblings he is in for a battle with Marcus Cannon in this year’s camp. This is still a playoff level group.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can't afford a sophomore slump.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can’t afford a sophomore slump.

Defensive Line: For the last several years, Belichick has been getting by on schemes and situational juggling of personnel.  Vince Wilfork (the [[_]]) has been a mainstay (49 tackles/3 sacks) but aside from Rob Ninkovich (8 sacks), only rookie Chandler Jones (45 tackles /6 sacks) distinguished himself. Is Ninkovich a linebacker or a defensive end?? In the nickle, Dont’a Hightower produced 4 sacks yet should be unseated by 7th round draft selection Michael Buchanan out of Illinois. A long armed athletic pass rusher that should give Belichick more to tinker with.

One of the best things about the Patriots is they keep their opponents from keying in on their personnel on the line. At the same time it works against them in terms of becoming a top shelf defense. No one has been able to work to become dominant as they still haven’t found the replacement for Richard Seymour. Without a second strong lineman, this group has been in the bottom half of the league as they were 25th in defense in 2012, and 31st the year before that. This group gets by on using linebackers for much of it’s production for sack totals and has trouble stopping the run. Below average is the best we can give this group.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don't know where he'll be coming from next in Belichick's schemes.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don’t know where he’ll be coming from next in Belichick’s schemes.

Linebackers: How about the bounce back season of Jerod Mayo?? He made the Pro Bowl after registering 147 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 3 sacks, an interception, and 3 passes defensed. Not quite his 175 tackle masterpiece of a few years ago but he was more of a factor against the pass. Only 26, he’s going to be Belichick’s defensive anchor for many years to come. Brandon Spikes was right with him with another 4 forced fumbles to go with 91 tackles, 7 passes defensed and a sack. These two accounted for 10 total turnovers. That’s getting the job done. Now throw in Hightower’s rookie performance (60 tackles / 4 sacks) and this is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Secondary: A full offseason with a re-signed Aquib Talib and bringing in SS Adrian Wilson should greatly benefit this defense. Kyle Arrington needs a bounce back year where he didn’t intercept a pass. Devin McCourty had a solid year with 79 tackles, 5 interceptions, 13 passes defensed and 2 forced fumbles. Was it us, or did he look comfortable at Safety??  He gives them a Charles Woodson type ability to face 3 and 4 receiver sets if he has to lock onto a receiver. If he stays there now that Patrick Chung is healthy.

We’ve said for a few years this group is set to mature into something special. With the addition of Wilson and Talib, expect this to be one of the top secondaries in football. Going into his 13th season, Wilson keeps himself in tip top shape and has been a Pro Bowl player 4 of the last 5 seasons. Over the last 5 years he’s collected 9.5 sacks playing so close to the line of scrimmage. A frequent blitzer. He automatically makes this group better. A playoff caliber group.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Overall: You have to realize we’re coming down to the end of Tom Brady’s career. At 35 years of age how much longer will he do this?? What type of toll will this season have on him if his receivers are slow to develop?? This will be a unique study as we make our way through this season. It could be the last with the Patriots being the clear cut best in the AFC East.

They will see trouble early on in weeks 3-6 when they host Tampa, go to Atlanta, to Cincinnati, then host the potent New Orleans Saints. A 3-3 record could be the situation  before ironing out issues and playing to a rocky 10-6 finish. Payback will be on the minds of  the Texans when they host New England in week 13. Back to back road trips to Miami and Baltimore in weeks 15 & 16, figure to be difficult as well. Last year being 100% healthy they lost 31-30 to the Ravens so expect a dogfight in that one. With their #1 offense, they barely escaped in Miami 23-16 and the Dolphins have improved their defense.

This is the case if Gronkowski comes back early and is 100% for the season. If he doesn’t this team could slip to 9-7 or 8-8. Don’t forget last year they had 3 games against division opponents where games were decided by 7 points or less. Bill Belichick may have to will this team down the stretch to another division title. It will not be the same as it’s been though. Depending on Brady’s frame of mind, the Patriots could be in a mode of complete transition in 2014.

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