Category Archives: 2012 Team Previews

2012 San Francisco 49ers Preview

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Alex Smith celebrating with Vernon Davis after “The Catch III”

With all the excitement that Candlestick Park saw last season, it’s hard not to think of the contrast between the ending of their two playoff games. First the frenzied, raucous crowd who witnessed “The Catch III” as the Niners beat New Orleans in the final seconds. Then, the  fans that quietly filed out after Lawrence Tynes overtime field goal sent the Giants on to Super Bowl XLVI. It was a season where the ending was so abrupt, you could feel everyone in the stadium felt the 49ers let a golden opportunity slip away. Then have to watch with abject horror the Giants throttle the Patriots, and San Francisco had an even better defense… Yes, they let a possible sixth Super Bowl trophy vanish like a mirage in the desert. So will they come back baring emotional scars from the NFC Championship meltdown, or will they gain psychological momentum from a triumphant season culminating with the win over the Saints??

Quarterback: Back in 2009, the Packer insider had an article comparing the paths that Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith had taken since they hailed from the NFL ’05 draft. http://packersinsider.com/2009/11/class-of-2005-alex-smith-vs-aaron-rodgers/ Of course it was written because Rodgers, having the better path of the two, was going to face Smith in a regular season game. That was nearly our match up in last year’s NFC Championship. Yet unlike Rodgers, who laid an egg in an upset playoff loss to the Giants, we saw Smith come of age in his first playoff game. Sure Smith still has his detractors, however they were nowhere to be found in the midst of the noisy celebration in the comeback win.

Coach Harbaugh will have his work cut out for him to do better than his 13-3 inaugural season with the club.

Last year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh “Trent Dilfer-ized” the offense. By asking Smith to acquiesce throwing high risk passes downfield, the offense played to it’s strengths. The running game and the defense carried this team through the early part of the season yet he started to mature into his role and started to take shots downfield with TE Vernon Davis. The Chancellor believes Smith has turned a corner. First off he comes into the 2012 season having gone his last 8 games without an interception which includes two playoff games.  You have to go back to the November 24th game with the Ravens when he last threw a pick. If you look at his 7 games going into the NFC Championship, he had gone 111 of 189 for 1,327 yards and 7 TDs. Even in the championship against the Giants he threw 12 completions in 26 attempts for 196 yards and 2 more TDs. He didn’t force the ball downfield into coverage and the 49ers have given him weapons this year. Has the emotional fallout completely healed from Niners brass courting Peyton Manning and letting Smith dangle in free agency?? We’ll have to wait for a rough patch during the season to see if it has… Until then, we have to give the quarterback position a playoff caliber grade.

Frank Gore is a workhorse running back.

Offensive Backfield: Now who can remember all the “I want to be traded” talk from Frank Gore (The [[_]]) as the team came back from the lockout?? Funny how winning cures all that negative talk in the locker room huh?? Not a peep out of Gore as the team stormed to a 9-1 start. Gore bludgeoned his way to 1,211 yards, 8TDs and had an average of 4.3 yards per carry. His 2011 yardage was second highest for his career, and  was his fifth 1,000 yard rushing season in the last six seasons. He is the last of a dying breed…. The big running back that can control the game and the clock.

Kendall Hunter was a good change of pace running back that had a combined 668 yards from scrimmage, 473 of which rushing.  Yet the 49ers drafted speedy LaMichael James out of Oregon. James brings an explosive element to an offense that desperately needs it. We know he’ll play on 3rd downs, passing situations and special teams at least. With his falling to them in the draft, we believe the odd man out will be free agent Brandon Jacobs. His lack of versatility will make him expendable as we reach September. With Hunter and James to take some of the load off, it should keep Gore fresh for the stretch run. Running back is above average or as we say around here, playoff quality.

Receivers: Here is the position that let the team down last year and could be the difference between the 49ers playing in Super Bowl XLVII, or watching it. TE Vernon Davis is one of the emotional leaders of this football team. Last year Davis had 67 receptions for 792 yards and 6 scores. He has been the target most teams try to take away first in the Niners passing game and he still manages to get the football. Davis should return to the Pro Bowl now that he will receive some help on the outside. With the signing of Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and the drafting of A.J. Jenkins in the first round, the Michael Crabtree / Ted Ginn Jr experiment is over. Ginn should be cut this summer. These two can’t get open on a consistent basis and neither has been able to get deep. If Randy Moss can provide that element as he did for the 2007 Patriots, this could swing the offense wide open. Three receiver sets may become more prominent which could even open space for James coming out of the backfield. Moss as a veteran, could be a locker room presence since most of these players grew up watching his exploits. If he can still get deep, this is a playoff quality group yet will have to go through some growing pains to start the season and find everyone their role.

Offensive Line: Last year this line was good enough to rank a respectable 8th rushing the football and 10th in rushing first downs with 101. However protecting the passer they were 25th in allowing 44 sacks and ranked 24th in QB hits allowed with 82. Let’s face it,  on some of those plays Smith held the ball too long, yet at times against top defenses this line couldn’t hold up. When rushing the football in obvious power situations, they converted 44% to the strong side and 67% up the gut. Those need to improve on the strong side for a heavy rushing team. They spent two draft picks in G Joe Looney of Wake Forest and they took C Jason Slowey from Western Oregon with the 199th selection. Looney should be able to contribute immediately. Slowey could push journeyman center Jonathon Goodwin who is entering his 10th season. This line will be asked to protect better or they may be relegated to another “Trent Dilfer-ized” season as an offense. They want a vertical passing game with Moss and Manningham which calls for 5 and 7 step drops. They have to get better.  Until we see them improve in the pre-season we have to give them a below average grade.

Ray McDonald making his presence felt in last year’s NFC Championship Game.

Defensive Line: Aside from Patrick Willis on the defense, has there been a steadier performer than Justin Smith?? He’s a complete motor guy who gets by on hard work who plays the run as well as the pass. He just came off his 3rd straight Pro Bowl berth with his best season. With 65 tackles, 7.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles he paces a defensive line that was stout against the run. Pass rush specialist Aldon Smith teamed with Smith to form a formidable rush and he tallied 14 sacks. As a team they produced 42 sacks which was 7th best in football.  Keep your eye on Ray McDonald #91. This could be his breakout year. He recorded 43 tackles along with 5.5 sacks, all produced from the lines interior. He was all over the place in the NFC Championship game sacking Eli Manning 2.5 times. He should be in Hawai’i in about 7 months. Mark it down.

The three man line even more so than a four man line is there to keep blockers off the linebackers. This unit didn’t allow a rushing touchdown for the first ten games of the season. Every team in NFL history that was able to do that made it to the conference championship game. Smith (Justin) is going into his 12th season and they may want to sub for him a little more to keep him fresh by seasons end. He did record sacks in each playoff game last year but there is a lot of mileage on his spedometer. Defensive line is Super Bowl quality by the Bay.

Linebackers: Did we say something about the defensive line keeping blockers off of the linebackers?? How about to the tune of 305 tackles by the top three guys… Navarro Bowman with 150, Patrick Willis with 105 although he missed a game, and Ahmad Brooks with 50. Yikes!! That is a lot of scraping into the hole and meeting runners before they can get started. How Bowman was named 1st team All Pro (along with Justin Smith & Patrick Willis) and NOT the Pro Bowl is beyond me. This group is active and instinctive and plays extremely fast. Willis forced 4 of the team’s 20 forced fumbles on the years. In addition, Bowman and Willis produced 2 sacks each during the regular season. This is a Super Bowl quality group who should actually get better given their relative youth.

Rogers has found a home after leaving the Washington Redskins

Secondary: Retaining CB Carlos Rogers was essential in keeping this defense playing at a high level. Last year he went to the Pro Bowl with a 55 tackle, 6 interception season. He can man up against the fastest receivers and turn and run with them. He should make it to Hawai’i again. The quiet secret to this defense is the safety play of safeties Dashon Goldson and Dontae Whitner. At first glance SS Whitner’s 65 tackles don’t impress you until you realize how many were gobbled up by the linebackers. He did intercept two passes and was rarely out of position. Folks, like our CEO still wish he were in Buffalo. Goldson covers serious ground and did make the Pro Bowl thanks to a 69 tackle, 6 interception season. Whitner and Goldson are 26 & 27 respectively and should be stout for another 3 seasons. A veteran secondary that is Super Bowl quality as well.

Overall: This team is returning all of the starters from the 4th best defense in football. One that held opponents to 35% conversion rate on 3rd down (76 of 216) and should have another outstanding season. It’s imperative that they do since they start the 2012 campaign in Green Bay, then host the Lions on Sept 16th. They could be 0-2 to start the season. Hopefully they can keep the same hunger as they did last year. They were 6-2 on the road yet this year bring not only the aforementioned trip to Lambeau, add a trip to New England, and another against the revenge minded Saints. They also host the tough Chicago Bears and the Super Bowl champion Giants, so anticipate a tougher year. They should still win the west but their record will slip to to 11-5. They face some potent offenses from the AFC East which are better than the AFC North offenses of a year ago. In the Chancellor’s crystal ball, the 49ers should return to the NFC Championship Game barring injuries. Games one and two against the Packers & Lions could well decide which team will host it.

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Next up: Green Bay Packers

2012 New England Patriots Preview

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As the final pass from Tom Brady fell harmlessly to the turf in last February’s Super Bowl, the immediate thoughts move to the upcoming offseason. Of course the incomplete pass touched off a celebration for New York, but the assessment for each team’s possible return began. One thing was evident as you looked at New England: Bill Belichick and his Patriots may have arrived at the Super Bowl a year too early. Do you realize of the 22 starters from the 2007 16-0 team, 17 of them have been replaced some 4 years later?? Oops make that 18 with Left Tackle Matt Light’s retirement. This team has been completely overhauled and has remained a force in the AFC and the question has to be asked: If Belichick’s young defense is maturing and Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski remain a force on offense, who is going to keep this team from reaching Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans??

Quarterback: The number one reason why that question can be asked is Tom Brady is still at quarterback. He’s the only quarterback in NFL history to make it to the NFL Championship Game or Super Bowl with 4 different starting running backs. So losing Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis won’t cause to large a problem. He is the only quarterback in NFL history to have 5 seasons with 13 or more wins and only two of his Super Bowl wins were during those seasons. Last year’s stat-line?? He went 401 of 611 attempts for a team and AFC record 5,235 yards 39TDs and only 12 interceptions. Yet he’s only going into his 13th season and holds these distinctions as well:

 

  • In 2011 he tied John Elway for the most Super Bowls as a starting quarterback with 5.
  • Brady holds the record for most touchdown passes in a season with 50. (2007)
  • In 2010 set the record for touchdown to interception ratio at 9. (36TDs / 4Ints)
  • In 2010 set the record for most passing attempts without an interception at 335.

Although he’s one of the game’s elder statesmen, he still seems to have good feet within the pocket. He still has a zeal for the game and has helped TEs Hernandez and Gronkowski grow into the league’s best pair of tight ends through his leadership and play. So it’s at this point we expect Tom Terrific to have another great season. Possibly no passer in history utilizes his weapons better. His achille’s heal has been ever since the 2007 Super Bowl, if you get to him and hit him in his legs early, he will look down at the pass rush. Opponents hope to do more of that with the Patriots grooming a new Left Tackle. However it’s time to stop comparing Brady to his contemporaries. Where does he fit in history?? Well at quarterback the Patriots are Super Bowl quality.

Offensive Backfield: One of the reasons the Patriots used their short passing game so much was the inability to run the football with any consistency. They have replaced the departed Green-Ellis with former Indianapolis Colt Joseph Addai. The Patriots are hoping for a little more burst than the 3.7 yard rushing average Green-Ellis gave them. Although he did score 11TDs his number one problem was he couldn’t stretch a play past what it was designed for. At times in the NFL you have to be able to break a few 10 -15 yard runs. Neither he (667 yards) or Danny Woodhead (351 yds /1 TD) or Stevan Ridley (441 yds/ 1TD) could sustain a solid rushing attack.  This was one of the deficiencies that came to haunt them in last year’s Super Bowl. They’re asking a lot of Addai who hasn’t rushed for more than 500 yards in his last two seasons. Since they didn’t draft a running back they may be forced to run by committee again. They’re still below average at running back.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 54 million new reasons to smile with his new contract.

Receivers: Believe it or not this was the other deficiency that reared it’s head in not only the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, but the loss to the Jets in the 2010 playoffs as well. This team can’t get deep. However it took teams with superior corners that allowed safeties and linebackers to sit on intermediate routes (20 yards and under) to finally get to Brady. Wes Welker has been re-signed and hasn’t declined at all as the game’s best slot receiver. His 122 receptions gave him his 4th season with over 100 which ties him with Jerry Rice for the most all time. Think about that for a second…that’s rarified air for a receiver who has only had 4, 1,000 yard seasons.

However when you couple Welker’s stats with those of TEs Rob Gronkowski (90 rec. 1,327 yds 17TDs), and Aaron Hernandez (79 rec. 910 yds 7TDs), you understand this is actually the Patriots replacement for an anemic running game. Yet this team can’t stretch the field and that brings down their grade at receiver. Deion Branch has lost a step and can’t threaten vertically either. When they go up against high ranking defenses they will have trouble. At receiver, this team is playoff quality not Super Bowl quality.

Offensive Line: Will have their hands full replacing Left Tackle Matt Light but shouldn’t be a serious problem. The Patriots favor the short passing game anyway. Last year this line ranked 10th in sacks allowed with 32 and 13th in quarterback hits allowed with 71. The team has been very cavalier moving to get a free agent tackle into camp. Belichick is going to go with the same passing style of the last few years, and Brady will see little pass rush with most plays being 5 step drops or less. Get used to mini rollouts in games also to keep backside pressure down as well. Yet don’t forget the Patriots selected Tackle Marcus Cannon from TCU in the 2011 draft. So “The Hoodie” is ready. However this line has to take a step back to average since Light was such a staple on the team and was a locker room presence. After all, he was the spokesperson who presented Robert Kraft with the painting to commemorate the 2011 season in his late wife’s honor. Locker room leaders like that are hard to replace.

Andre Carter registered 10 sacks last year for New England.

Defensive Line: Proof positive that the NFL was upside down last year??  Here you had the NFL’s 31st ranked defense winning the AFC and they had to draft defense, defense, defense. Last year giving up 411 yards per game were too many and most of the issues come from a defensive line that is influx. Vince Wilfork is still a force in the middle but the hodgepodge set of pass rushers needs to be bolstered with a bonafide blue chip player. Last year Mark Anderson and journeyman Andre Carter each registered 10 sacks but Belichick was forced to juggle his line too much last year.

The Patriots used 1st and 3rd round draft picks on DEs Chandler Jones of Syracuse and Jake Bequette from Arkansas. Each player stands 6’5 and Jones is trying to beef up from his 247 lbs to rush the passer from the blind side. Last year the Patriots were 14th in sacks with 40. However Carter made the Pro Bowl last year and the Patriots need to re-sign this unrestricted free agent to help bring along a young Jones and give Belichick a chance to field a 3 DE pass rush alignment like the Giants. If they re-sign Carter this group has a chance to be playoff quality. If not defensive growing pains will drop them below average.

Linebackers: This unit took a step back last year. First Jerrod Mayo, who had an out of this world 2010 leading the NFL with 175 tackles came down to Earth with a total of 102 last year. Sure he missed a few games but the slip in play was the catalyst to the slide of the defense overall. However with an injury free camp, the Patriots expect a bounce back season for Mayo. A pleasant surprise was the heady play of LB Rob Ninkovich (80 tackles) who proved to be a solid overall defender. He registered 6.5 sacks last year and Mark Sanchez is still having nightmares from the pick six he took back to ice a pivotal divisional game last year. If he can repeat his performance and LB Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton can stay on the field this season, the Patriots can improve to a good to middle of the pack defense overall. We have to see how they evolve this pre-season. Right now we have to give the linebacking corps an average ranking with a chance to be good.

A young and growing secondary.

Secondary: Quiet as it’s kept, the best set of corners in the AFC this season might be Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty. You have McCourty #32 who made the Pro Bowl in 2010 with 7 interceptions and Arrington who should have made it last year. His 7 interceptions had a lot to do with teams backing away from McCourty. These two have had some growing pains but at 24 and 25 years of age respectively, this year Belichick will have the best corner play this team has seen since Ty Law and Otis Smith. Yet with their speed, youth, and now on field experience, expect the pass defense rankings to go up this year.

Patrick Chung is a good young safety who came on after injuries early in the season. He needs to make just a few more plays and should in his second season after supplanting Brandon Merriweather. He only had 1 interception as an 8 game starter last year after having 3 in spot duty in 2010. Had he been just one step quicker, he could have knocked down that Eli Manning to Mario Manningham 4th quarter pass in the Super Bowl. Nah…that was just a fabulous throw. Well if you think about it if he improves a quarter of a step or half a step?? Regardless he’s expected to have a better 2012 than 2011. This is a good young secondary and it’s growing… have to give them an above average or playoff grade.

Overall: This team arrived at the Super Bowl one year too early. With a bounce back season from Mayo and improved play from a young secondary this team should win Super Bowl XLVII going away. Tom Brady can adapt and cover any deficiencies that could arise on the offensive end. If they re-sign Andre Carter and one of their rookie defensive ends can pay immediate dividends… Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will win their fourth Super Bowl with a fifth on the near horizon.

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Next: San Francisco 49ers

The Chancellor Weighs In On Jerry Jones Comments on Cowboys Super Bowl Window Closing

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Earlier this week there were musings from both Jerry Jones and his son Stephen as to the window closing on the Dallas Cowboys.  I thought “window to reach the Super Bowl?” What planet have these two been living on?? Don’t they know that more than half of Cowboy fans everywhere want to string up Tony Romo?? We’ll deal with Romo being the scapegoat in a minute but this team isn’t good enough to heap this type of pressure on it. Now of course every NFL owner has aspirations of his team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year but why add pressure to an already combustible mix??

First off your head coach is an unproven commodity.  Jason Garrett comes from a long line of coaches yet has shown he’ll mismanage ball games from time to time. Last year he inexplicably iced his own kicker in a mind numbing loss at mid-season. This would be more forgivable had it been the first game of the season, but systems should be well oiled at that point. Well it’s true that the NFL is more of a passing league now yet when you look at Garrett’s offense, all of his running plays are based on trickery. Draws and screens for the most part from pass formation looks. This emphasizes not only what they practice most, it shows the type of RBs they have acquired in the last 4 years. Tashard Choice, DeMarco Murray, and Felix Jones are all 3rd down type backs. Not one of these guys can break a tackle and go down at first contact.

Think back to the loss to the Detroit Lions last year. This team had a 17 point lead in the second half when the Lions began to roar back. Once the Lions closed to 30-24 with 9 minutes to go in the game, they punted and pinned the Cowboys to their own 3 yard line. It was at this exact same point in the 1995 NFC Championship Game that Emmitt Smith burst through a hole and arm tackle from George Koonce, and ran 35 yards to get the team breathing room. This finished with a game clinching 7 minute scoring drive. Yet in this game, with Romo having thrown 2 interceptions for touchdowns in the 3rd quarter, couldn’t turn to his running game to bail him out. All that could be mustered??http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201110020dal.htm  Two anemic runs for 2 yards, one each by Jones and Choice, then an incomplete pass and the rest is history. In both attempts these two went down at first contact.

The Dallas Cowboys can’t run the football and it stems from not getting their pad level low on the offensive line and making holes. They don’t practice it and they can’t push their way out of a bad smelling bathroom evidenced by only rushing for 5 touchdowns all season. Are you serious?? What Super Bowl quality rushing attack are the Jones’ talking about?? I know….some Cowboy zealot will bring up DeMarco Murray’s season and let’s take a look at it shall we?? He rushed 164 times for 897 yards and 2 touchdowns and a 5.5 yard average. Not bad until you take a closer look at the numbers. Take out his 25 carries for 253 yards and a 91 yard touchdown performance against the 31st ranked against the run St. Louis Rams and what do you have?? A modest 644 yards on 139 carries and only 1 touchdown. Not only does this team not have a running back to close ball games, Garrett’s play calling and practice habits lend to this team not being able to run for vital first downs or goal line touchdowns. Hence Romo is forced to throw in obvious running situations down near the goal line which leads to many field goals.

What is also left out of the equation is you fielded a defense that ranked 14th overall and a paltry 23rd against the pass. This was with All World LB DeMarcus Ware who had 19.5 sacks, which ranked second in the NFL. What would have happened had Ware not been this productive?? Did you also know that along with last year’s Minnesota Vikings, this is the only time in NFL history that a defense fielding a defender with 19 or more sacks played on a team ranked 20th or below in pass defense for that year?? In other words where are your other defenders?? Your safety position is still in disarray and 1st round draft pick CB Morris Claiborne had better hit the ground running. Especially with Terrence Newman having departed via free agency.

For most teams that did field expert pass rushers they had other defensive stalwarts to offset him. Whether it was Keith Millard 19 sacks to Chris Doleman’s 21 sacks in 1989 for the Vikings, Lamar Lathon’s 13.5 sacks to Kevin Greene’s 14 in 1996 in Carolina, Leonard Marshall’s 15.5 sacks to Lawrence Taylor’s 20.5 for New York in 1986, to Otis Wilson’s 10.5 sacks to Richard Dent’s 17 for the ’85 Bears, Ware needs help. Only one of those teams didn’t make it to the conference championship with two of them winning Super Bowls. Now Anthony Spencer played well in the second half of the season and came up with 6 sacks but aside from Ware there are no playmakers on defense. Sean Lee is showing flashes but not yet has he put it together for an entire season.  I’m definitely not seeing a Super Bowl caliber defense here…not until a true superstar emerges to help Ware.

Which leads us to Tony Romo. Now it’s been noted that I have said he is a good quarterback and statistics bear that out. However something is amiss with his fight or flight mechanism. In critical late game scenarios his decision making has cost the Cowboys several games. It’s been a systemic issue since the team can’t run out the clock which forces him to pass at times he shouldn’t be. Yet it’s a reciprocating issue. Last year, Thomas “Hollywood” Henderson blasted Romo for throwing a late game interception to Darrelle Revis in the loss to the Jets on opening night. The argument went on for days on Facebook, yet I tried to point out the blocked punt for a touchdown the special teams gave up and the collapsing of the defense on a long drive. Both also came in the fourth quarter.

“Hollywood” was right he shouldn’t have thrown that pass but who get’s the blame?? The defense that gave up 335 yards passing to Mark Sanchez?? Head Coach Garrett who when leading just 24-23 on the road with 1:10 to go in the game, calls for a passing play in the first place which was the Romo interception?? Did Garrett make that decision based on the fact the Cowboys could only run for 64 yards in the first place?? This in microcosm epitomizes the Cowboys as a Super Bowl team. Add these up and you’ll come up with the conclusion that I have as The Chancellor of Football… The Cowboys are nowhere close to a Super Bowl window in terms of talent nor coaching and especially not in temprament. Jerry Jones is like many rich men with total control in their lives… often are delusional and think they can buy their way to what they want. Yet when it comes to football, that approach is just misappropriated spending. Just ask Daniel Snyder in Washington.

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The Chancellor’s Take On Mark Sanchez v. Tim Tebow in New York

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Everyone is giving an opinion on the quarterback controversy between Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow in New York,  now it’s time for The Chancellor to weigh in. The latest comments coming from New York Jets quarterback coach Matt Cavanaugh. First he expressed that Sanchez made ‘poor decisions’ last year and now the next day raving about the upside of Tebow’s throwing prowess. It’s been interesting to watch. From the second New York signed Tebow the controversy started and as usual the Jets have been vocal in the media yet none seem to support their starting quarterback of the last three years.

Ironically now Tebow comes to work and the first item praised is how he’s working on his throwing ability. Are you kidding me?? His stat-line for the 2011 season was 126 of 271 for 1,729 yards 12 TDs and 6 interceptions. He completed just 46% of his passes….46%?? In an NFL that has changed the rules and officiating to the point that every major passing record fell last year and that was the best Tebow could do?? So he’s to unseat Mark Sanchez who competed 56% in going 308 passes out of 543 attempts for 3,474 yards, 26TDs and 18 interceptions??  That can’t be a sentiment expressed with a straight face… not if you know football.

By the way, Sanchez’s 26TDs were the most by a New York Jet since Vinny Testaverde threw for 29 in 1998. In that year Testaverde led the Jets to the AFC Championship Game.

No doubt Sanchez has to improve on his interceptions but too much has been thrown on his shoulders. Let’s talk about the complete and utter collapse of the New York rushing attack and defense to start the 2011 campaign. First off going into week 5, the Jets defense had given up 34 points in back to back outings against the Raiders and Ravens. Where was that stout defense you were known for?? It was at that point we here at Taylor Blitz started to criticize the anemic rushing attack of Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson who were averaging 3.1 and 3 yards respectively.  https://taylorblitztimes.com/2011/10/09/nfl-week-4-afc-east-see-you-at-the-crossroads/ Greene only had 157 yards rushing in the first four games. This before the Patriots throttled them 30-21. Although the team fought back and had a chance for the playoffs this really derailed your season. The blueprint was the Patriots game.

The Jets as an organization and a coaching staff are more to blame than the quarterback. It was you who let Sanchez confidante and productive route running receiver Braylon Edwards go. How close were they?? When Braylon landed in New York the teammate he met was Sanchez who was studying film at the house of then Jets safety Kerry Rhodes. He was his go to guy. You signed Santonio Holmes to a $50 million contract who runs very lazy routes yet was supposed to be the deep threat. Isn’t it ironic that Edwards had better statistics in 2010 when you made this bonehead decision (Edwards 53 rec. 904 yds /7TDs to Holmes 52 rec. 746 yds /6TDs).  http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyj/2010.htm Edwards reception yardage record was nealy 3 yards better than Holmes. To top it off you lost WR Brad Smith in free agency then to add further insult to injury you signed another terrible route runner in the slow Plaxico Burress, who had been incarcerated for more than a year and was not in football playing shape. All of this before you also lost dependable 3rd down WR Jerricho Cotchery.  Fittingly the first grumbling heard about Sanchez was from Holmes, the receiver the Steelers gave up on after he was a Super Bowl MVP for them. Great for chemistry.

As for Tebow, the circus comes to town with him. He has a tremendous following that has more to do with his religious convictions than pure football skills. He did have many a fourth quarter rally and you have to give him credit for that. What needed to be pointed out that wasn’t, was the Bronco defense keeping him in all those games. Tebow fans say how much of a leader he is…well so are most quarterbacks. Yet time and time again we kept saying that the Broncos have to minimize his passing to make him more effective. https://taylorblitztimes.com/?s=Tebow+Quotient Coming out of college, our CEO had Tebow as an H-Back or Tight End because of his questionable throwing and his statistics bore that out. We said we would grade him fairly and we have. Tebow fans point to his 6 fourth quarter comebacks yet seem to go blank on the 40-14 loss to Buffalo, 45-10 trouncing they took at home from the Detroit Lions, the 41-23 pounding they took from the Patriots before being routed 45-10 in the playoffs.

The last time I checked, Mark Sanchez won in the playoffs IN New England the year before and held the NFL record for road playoff wins with four until Eli Manning broke it last year. Tebow has one home wildcard win to Sanchez’ four road playoff wins and 2 trips to the AFC Championship Game. So let me get this straight… You want to replace a quarterback who’s beaten Belichick and New England on several occasions including playoffs for one that has been routed each time he’s played them with an ineffective running game?? Good luck. If you wanted to light a fire under your present quarterback, draft one. These non votes of confidence for your incumbent could derail this entire season if things don’t get off to a good clean start. Don’t take blame front office it’s all the quarterbacks fault and now you’ve whipped your fans into a frenzy with all the talk coming out of New York. First with Super Bowl promises and now with nonsensical desperate moves. Did you know the Broncos scored 309 points while allowing 390?? That’s a negative 81 point differential… and if Tebow was so effective, why did he get ousted and Peyton Manning signed in the blink of an eye??

By the way…if Tebow starts, Rex Ryan will be the first coach fired this year because it will be an abject failure…and you heard it here first.

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2012 New York Giants Preview

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When we last saw the New York Giants, they were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Indianapolis. Lingering questions remained about the impending personnel decisions on RB Brandon Jacobs and DE Osi Yumeniora.  Which obscured the real reality: Eli Manning is on his way to becoming a Hall of Fame quarterback. One who will win more championships than his celebrated brother Peyton when it’s all said and done. He is also surrounded by several playmaking receivers in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.

The Giants rely on a stout pass rush, and tactically sound defense and with the emergence of DE Pierre Paul on a relatively young team, it would appear that they’re not done competing for championships.  Tom Coughlin’s group won it all with the worst record ever at 9-7, yet proved an axiom that is becoming the NFL’s most prevalent theme: Just get hot going into the playoffs. It worked for the Giants last year just as it had with Green Bay the season before. Will the Giants repeat as champions or further frustrate their fans with spotty inconsistent play??

Quarterback: After another mind numbing last second drive to upend the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl setting, Eli Manning’s legend is growing and he has half of his career to build upon it. However Giant fans have to realize that Manning may never turn in a Joe Montana-like season where he just completes pass after pass for a 70% completion rating. Get used to it Giant fans, Manning is like a great “B” student. He will stumble on some assignments but he’s a great test taker and comes through in the end. Do you realize Manning is now 7-1 in postseason games away from the Meadowlands? He now has postseason wins over an 18-0 Patriot team in Super Bowl XLII, and an upset over a 15-1 Packers team in last year’s playoff.  He is the only quarterback in NFL history to defeat 5 postseason foes with records of 13-3 or better.  No one even comes close to that.

We here at the Taylor Blitz Times tried to prepare you of his ascendant potential before the NFC Championship last year. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/01/18/2011-nfc-championship-preview-eli-manning-the-silent-killer/  He just missed becoming the fifth quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards in a season with 4,933. That is the highest for a Super Bowl champion quarterback by the way.  For the season, he was 359 of 589 while throwing for 29 touchdowns to just 16 interceptions. You look at 61% completion rating and think “that’s not that high”, yet a closer look reveals he lowered his interception total from 25 the year before. Credit that to a more mature Manning throwing the ball away more.

His maturation as a quarterback was evident in last year’s playoffs.  He was in total command in both the NFC Championship Game as well as the Super Bowl.  When the season was on the line, he led his team to a 17-14 4th quarter lead gunning a 17 yard touchdown to Mario Manningham. Then the winning drive in overtime. If that weren’t enough.. in the fading minutes of Super Bowl XLVI, Manning got his team out of the shadow of their goal line with a 38 yard strike to Manningham.  Eli looked down the middle to hold the Patriot safety, subtly took two steps to his left (shortened the trajectory of the throw) and fired the best pass seen in a Super Bowl.  Complete command in that situation and again he was flawless in the 4th quarter. Remember last year before the season Manning was asked; “Are you an elite quarterback??” Everyone scoffed when he responded “yes” well he shut up a lot of critics. Even though he’s a great “B” student the Giants at quarterback get an A and is Super Bowl quality.

Offensive Backfield: Although they weren’t necessarily thunder and lightning, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw were an effective tandem running the football. Yet this partnership has ended with Jacobs signing with the 49ers and let’s face it, at times he just didn’t run with the thunder a 264 lb running back should. Part of that was the fault of the coaches trying to run him wide. Other times he “beat his feet” before hitting a hole and could be stood up by a scraping linebacker.   Bradshaw had a good year and was the most versatile RB the Giants had. He ran for 659 yards and 9 touchdowns in spot duty, and also caught 34 passes out of the backfield for another 2 TDs. He’s a good space runner out of 3 and 4 receivers sets yet may have to handle pushing the pile at the goal line this year. Not sure he’s suited for that. In the Super Bowl he scored from a multiple receiver set in the final seconds. Who is going to be this team’s goal line runner??

The Giants brought in a potential playmaker in draft pick David Wilson out of Virginia Tech who was ACC Player of the Year. When you look at how he plays…he’s a quicker, shiftier version of Bradshaw with more of a burst. If he can pick up the blitzes he may be the starter by the time we get to September. During the draft just about every play showcasing his ability came from spread and multiple receiver sets. Think of him as a quicker, thicker Dave Meggett who can also return kicks. Running back is average  in New York and we have to find out who will be the 3rd & 1, 4th & 1 guy.

Receivers: This is one of the quiet strengths of this team. Last year’s emergence of Victor Cruz illustrates how well this position is taught in New York. Everyone forgets offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride used to coach the run and shoot in Houston. Along with Tom Coughlin being a former wide receiver coach we now understand how Hakeem Nicks caught 76 for 1,192 yards and 7 touchdowns in a supporting role. The star was Cruz who gathered in 82 asses for a whopping 1,536 yards and 9 scores. His average was over 3 yards greater than Nicks last season who was thought of as the team’s deep threat. At 23 and 25 years respectively, these two should terrorize NFC East foes for several years. No wonder Dallas drafted a CB #1.

Definitely this team is Super Bowl quality at receiver and that is before we get to draft pick Reuben Randle out of LSU. He will have to learn the routes just as an undrafted Cruz picked them up. You can clearly see Gilbride’s teachings when the Giants face zone. You will see their receivers hook in open spaces and then slide behind adjusting linebackers on intermediate routes. A complete run and shoot principle. These guys may go for over 1,300 yards each this season.

Offensive Line: This is an area of concern for this team. What came first the chicken or the egg?? What we mean by that is has this team become a passing team out of necessity or can they run the football?? According to NFL accounting it was out of necessity. The Giants were last in rushing with 1,427 yards and last in average with 3.5 yards per carry. That’s terrible and the worst ever for a Super Bowl champion. These guys just aren’t driving anyone off the ball…period. Otherwise the Giants wouldn’t have gone after two OT in this year’s draft.

Passing the football they fared pretty well ranking 7th with 28 sacks yet were middle of the pack getting Eli hit with 72 hits. This could be attributed to Manning’s quick decision making more than the line’s total performance because he took a lot of hits. We have to see what type of camp draftees Brandon Mosely (Auburn) and Matt McCants (UAB) have to see if one goes after Kareem McKenzie’s job. This line is in a state of flux and may need to meld the early part of the season. Right now the line is well below average.

Pierre Paul emerging from a sack of Alex Smith in the NFC Championship Game

Defensive Line: Clearly a strength and possibly the heart and soul of this team. The story of the 2011 campaign was the emergence of 2010 1st round pick Jason Pierre Paul, who impersonated Michael Strahan to the tune of 16.5 sacks. Incredibly he was third on the team in tackles with 93 total. That is a high tackle number for a DE. His combination of size and athleticism could be the finest ever seen in a defensive end. Remember the footage of him doing back flips before the Super Bowl?? Yikes! He’s just tapping into his potential and could have won NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors last year.

However it’s the total rotation package with fellow DE’s Justin Tuck and Osi Yumeniora that has opponents struggling with whom to focus the most attention on. Tuck has to bounce back from a season where his sack total fell from 11.5 in 2010 to 5 last year. Of course he missed four games with injury but going into this year he should see far fewer double teams with Pierre Paul on the other side. It’s still unclear if Yumeniora will return yet the Giants also signed 350 lbs Shaun Rogers to help plug the middle. Last year this team was 3rd in the NFL with 48 sacks. This year if they can return healthy they could hit 60. Defensive line is Super Bowl quality in Gotham.

Linebackers: Surprisingly this team didn’t go after a linebacker in free agency or the draft. Michael Boley seems to be the only complete linebacker of the bunch. He made plays all over the field and was 2nd on the team in solo tackles with 74. Mathias Kiwanuka did have a solid year but gets lost out there at times if his hand isn’t on the ground rushing the passer. Super Bowl hero Chase Blackburn was re-signed after a short trip through free agency. Aside from Boley, Kiwanuka, Blackburn, Greg Jones, and company are pedestrian linebackers each with clear shortcomings. Kiwanuka struggles in space where Jones, Blackburn can’t disengage if linemen get their hands on them. Hence the Giants can be run on…hence their 19th ranking against the run. They don’t have a true middle linebacker and until they do this is the only weakness of this defense. Linebacker is below average.

Corey Webster should become a Pro Bowl at corner in 2012

Secondary: The most versatile secondary in the NFL yet the loss of CB Aaron Ross would have been a greater impact had the Giants not drafted CB Jayron Hosely out of Virginia Tech. Truth be told the Giants run a lot of zone behind that pass rush. So this team should be good with current corners Corey Webster and Hosely if he can get into camp and develop quickly. One of the personnel packages that worked out well was when the Giants could use S Antrel Rolle, a converted corner, to drop down and cover a TE or 3rd WR as well as most corners. If Hosely isn’t ready and the G-men have to go with a veteran on corner opposite Webster. Speaking of Webster, he’s coming off his best season as a pro where he picked off 6 passes, returning them for 71 yards. Webster should make his first Pro Bowl this year. With a 3rd safety in Deon Grant seeing playing time the Giants were able to play with 3 safeties and gave extreme flexibility to their exotic coverages.

Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell utilized his backfield in a varitey of ways. They played a cat and mouse game in obvious passing situations as in Super Bowl XLVI. In the second half they lined up safeties Kenny Phillips and Rolle just 15 yards off the ball in what looked like a cover two. At the snap Brady read cover two yet the safeties DIDNT go deep, they stayed in the 15-20 yard zone right off the line of scrimmage and dared the slow Patriots to throw deep. Which they couldn’t and the Giants shut them down in the last two drives. They need rookie CB Hosely to develop or they’ll have to go more vanilla with personnel and play call manipulation. Early on there will be some defensive breakdowns and it’s imperative the pass rush shows up as the 2012 season begins to cover these shortcomings. The last line of defense is a “B” right now but can improve to Super Bowl quality if they can get the corner situation handled.

Overall: Again Giants fans will be frustrated by the Giants inability to roll up their fists and hit their opponent with a haymaker and win the game big. They will always play close to the vest affairs and should finish this season with a 10-6 record. Manning will have a great season and is unquestionably a leader on this team. In defensing their title, we believe they’ll make the playoffs yet lose in the divisional round after a typical late season push to gain the playoffs.

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Next up: San Francisco 49ers

Peyton Manning Sweepstakes Ends In Denver

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Manning signs with the Broncos

In a surprising move, the Broncos land the biggest free agent in over a decade in Manning’s signing. During the last week and a half there had been speculation and reporting of Peyton landing in San Francisco, Arizona, Tennessee, possibly Miami, yet Denver didn’t seem to be a front runner. Now with Manning coming in, it looks like the Tebow era ends in Denver.  With the 4 time NFL MVP, does this make the Broncos legitimate Super Bowl contenders??

Armchair quarterbacks have flooded cyberspace touting the Broncos as soon to be champions yet if you look at it from a coaching standpoint: What offense are they going to run?? From a general manager standpoint: Do they have any players that fit the offense Manning wants to run?? Who do they sign (free agent) and draft now?? This is a two to three year window so they have to get players who can contribute right away.

This team was 8-8 in an underwhelming division last year. The AFC West is ripe for the taking as it was with last year’s division championship. Yet it was the Chiefs and Chargers who were the hunted and now we’ll see what happens with it being Denver’s turn. Understand this is a team that was 23rd in sacks allowed with 42 and were misleading with a ranking of 8 in QB hits allowed with 62. Tebow would take off when the pass rush made it past the line which kept that number low. However as we watched the NFC Championship Game with the Giants v. 49ers, we saw Alex Smith struggle and hold onto the ball when his receivers couldn’t get open. If they can’t sign a WR or two to get open they may have to still be a running team.

Time will tell and we’ll see who the Broncos will bring in now that the top free agent receivers have signed elsewhere.  There are a few receivers in-house but not sure if they match up well with Peyton Manning. There is a lot of work to be done and a new offense to install. Yet they have the centerpiece to begin with although he’s entering his 15th season. It’s a short window and Bronco fans are optimistic. Can he become the first QB since Norm Van Brocklin to lead 2 teams to NFL Championships?? Hell he needs at least one more just to compare with Eli.

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