2012 NFC Picks & Prognostications

Well the 2012 season is upon us and the question beckons: Who will make it to Super Bowl XLVII?? Every NFL team believes they have made moves to improve their roster yet only 15 or so really has a legitimate shot to make it to New Orleans. Each NFL season takes on a new look as new players make names for themselves, injuries derail teams and give hope to others, and then you have teams that come from out of nowhere. The latter rarely happens but when it does it makes for great theater.

An interesting thing happens the season after a surprise champion wins it, everyone thinks the team that should have won it, will win it the next year. Many are pointing to last year’s 15-1 Green Bay Packers to win it all. They were defending Super Bowl champions last year right? If the NFL were a television show like the NBA has become, I could understand your argument. However injuries and performance peaks and valleys alter a football team’s fortunes every season. In 2010, the Green Bay Packers were 10-6 with 16 players on injured reserve. Yet they rode the momentum of winning their final regular season game all the way to a championship. Last year they rested their players going into the playoffs and the Giants promptly took their lunch money in a quiet exit from the playoffs. The Giants used the same method Green Bay had used the year before: Get hot going into the playoffs.

As for The Chancellor’s crystal ball on the NFC this year:

2012 NFC Playoff Predictions

1. Detroit Lions 13-3 ##  NFC North Champs Homefield Advantage

2. Atlanta Falcons 11-5  NFC South Champs

3. San Francisco 49ers 11-5 NFC West Champs

4. New York Giants 10-6 NFC East Champs

5. Green Bay Packers 11-5 Wild Card

6. Chicago Bears 10-6 Wild Card

NFC CHAMPION: Detroit Lions

It’s hard for some to wrap the thought of the Lions playing in the Super Bowl but this team is growing in stature and has the perfect blend of youth and talent. The strides they made last season with a healthy Matthew Stafford were immense and puts them in position to come out of the pack in 2012 a better football team. They will mature into that team as this season progresses. The NFC North as a whole will be the scourge of the league with the Packers and Bears also making the playoffs. The Packers took a big loss when they placed 2011 leading tackler Desmond Bishop on injured reserve. If they lose 15 more, that’s the recipe for their winning it in 2011…

Many folks point to the Philadelphia Eagles as a team to come into this season with something to prove. Yet their recent history has Michael Vick missing several games due to injury and 2012 will be no different. In the first six games he faces 3 of last year’s top ten defenses. Andy Reid’s job will be on the line with another 8-8 season as owner Jeffrie Lurie alluded to, but they will win 10 games.

Now many Saints fans will think their team is back in the hunt with the suspensions of Jonathon Vilma and Will Smith overturned. The Chancellor doesn’t see that. First off, the team has an interim coach standing in for interim coach Joe Vitt. The game plans of Sean Payton and in-game adjustments will be missed. The loss in continuity with players missing all those practices and which coach has what responsibilities will result in a few clock management mistakes. Count on it. Many point to Drew Brees as though he can overcome all of these obstacles, not without his confidant in Payton. The Saints will struggle.

As for the Dallas Cowboys, right now they have the number one defense in the NFL… except no one else has played. They did look good  in the win over the New York Giants. DeMarco Murray ran hard. However it was just week one and the NFL season is a marathon, not a short sprint. In a long race, the NFC North Champion Detroit Lions will be the team standing at the finish.

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2012 NFC North Previews & Predictions

Julius Peppers has freakish athleticism for a man his size.

Just when you want to call it the return of the Black and Blue Division, you are reminded that these teams take to the air as much as any in pro football. The Chicago Bears were once the exception to this rule, however with reuniting Jay Cutler with WR Brandon Marshall, there will be footballs in the air in the Windy City. Don’t forget, the last time they played together Marshall caught 104 receptions for 1,265 yards and 6 touchdowns while both were voted to the Pro Bowl. That would go a long way in returning the Chicago Bears to the NFC Championship Game or beyond.

This is going to be the most competitive division in football this  year. We have witnessed the rebirth of the Lions, the Green Bay Packers are one season removed from defending  a Super Bowl championship, and you have a Chicago Bears team that has retooled on the run with some big name signings and acquisitions in recent years. The lone team out of contention this year will be the Minnesota Vikings. Sure stranger things have happened but to bank on a first time signal caller in Christian Ponder and RB Adrian Peterson returning from major knee surgery. How will they fare?

2012 NFC North Predictions

Detroit Lions 13-3 *

Green Bay Packers 11-5 #

Chicago Bears 10-6

Minnesota Vikings 3-13

Right now the perfect storm is brewing in Detroit. They are about to mature into a force that hasn’t been seen from this organization since the 1950s. You have to realize last year’s renaissance was no fluke. This year the defense will benefit from DT Nick Fairley being healthy from the start. His play will blossom with Ndamukong Suh and team sack leader DE Cliff Avril drawing double teams. Remember Avril signed a one year tender and will be playing for a bigger contract. He will be motivated to get after the quarterback.

Another benefit to the Lions attack will be the presence of RB Mikel Leshoure, who also missed all of last season and made it through the pre-season injury free. However the emergence of Joique Bell and Keiland Williams, who each rushed for 5.2 yards per carry in pre-season, will be there if Leshoure proves ineffective. The Lions ran with commitment and are intent on bringing balance to the offensive side of the ball. Ever since our first preview was written, The Chancellor’s crystal ball still comes up with the Lions winning this division on the arm of Matthew Stafford and a defense that is still making moves to improve against the pass. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/07/07/2012-detroit-lions-preview/ It’s rumored that veteran CB Drayton Florence could be headed to Detroit just 4 days after trading for former Redskin CB Kevin Barnes. The growth of these players and the overall maturation as a team will take this team deep into the playoffs and possibly the Super Bowl.

The Packers have to free Clay Matthews III from double teams this year.

One team standing in the Lions way will be the Green Bay Packers who have bristled at the notion they have been passed up by their division rival. After all they did have a 15-1 campaign last year and swept Detroit in 2011. Yet their defense is too up and down and suffered a major setback with LB Desmond Bishop being placed on injured reserve and the player that can fill in, Frank Zombo, was placed on the PUP list. When you’re trying to improve on last year’s 32nd ranked defense, this is going in the wrong direction.

The one thing the Packers can do is move the football on offense. Aside from All World QB Aaron Rodgers the Packers have the best set of receivers in all of football.https://taylorblitztimes.com/2012/06/19/2012-green-bay-packers-preview/  They will be forced to handle more of the workload and brought in RB Cedric Benson to aid the ground game.

This year the Packers season will turn because of a murderous second half schedule. Its a good thing they have 3 of their first 4 at home because in weeks 11 through 15 they’re at Detroit, at the New York Giants, home to the Vikings and Lions, and then a trip to Chicago to face a Bears team who will be in the thick of things. This team could lose as many as 4 of those match-ups with a defense not playing up to what their capable of. You can’t just line up and outscore everyone. Eventually you have to have your defense play well and in 2012, the defense is going to hold this team back.

Which brings us back to Chicago… With Matt Forte now signed to a long term deal, the Bears have their ‘big three” in Cutler, Marshall, and Matt Forte. However this pre-season did see WR Johnny Knox injured and put on the Physically Unable to Perform list which will allow him to come back this season. The Lions and Packers had better have their “A” game going. Any slip in play will result in the Bears taking their place in the post-season. Right now The Chancellor’s crystal ball has them on the outside looking in. Just barely outside.

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Matt Forte Signs A 4 Year Deal Worth $32 Million

On the deadline to lock up your franchise player, Matt Forte signs a four year deal and should solidify the Bears offense this season. With Jay Cutler being reunited with WR Brandon Marshall, this could be the best offense the Windy City has seen in years. Forte is a space runner and flourishes on screens and draws. He should project out to 2,200 yards from scrimmage if this offense can hit the field healthy this season.

At 26, a four year deal was good for both Forte and the Bears organization. Teams are reluctant to pay running backs as they near 30 years of age and the Bears should have a succession in place by then. Forte has been a solid player who looks like he has many years left. He’s a slippery runner who rarely takes the solid hit. Compare this with the reluctance the Baltimore Ravens are taking with Ray Rice. Each runner was franchised but there is a growing suspicion that Rice may be on the verge of wearing down from a heavy sustained workload. He also takes a lot more solid hits than Forte and it may show up shortly. Rice still hasn’t signed his tenure and wants a longer deal like Forte.

Brandon Marshall and Forte need each other for this to work. If teams are keeping their safeties back and outside linebacker to Marshall’s side watching for outs, hooks and slants, Forte will have more space to operate than ever before. The NFC North is weak when it comes to outside linebacker play as well. Whether rushing or receiving this is going to open up for the Bears beautifully.

As for the Bears as a franchise, remember the sentiment that Michael McCaskey was handicapping his team with offseason inactivity?? You can lay that claim to rest. The trading for QB Jay Cutler, signing big time free agent Julius Peppers a few seasons back, then bringing in Marshall from Miami for cheap. The Bears front office deserves some credit for not overspending and finding players for specific points. They’ve kept the nucleus of the team together (Lance Briggs withstanding) while becoming a player in free agency. In reality the current roster has about a 4 year window to reach the Super Bowl. The aforementioned players and those of Devin Hester, Urlacher, “Peanut” Tillman are all in their prime. Do they have enough to cool down the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers??

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The Soul of the Game: Dick Butkus

When it comes to the soul of the game, we’re talking about hitters, those that epitomized the toughness when you think of NFL football. Without question one of the first, if not the first person who comes to mind is Dick Butkus.Butkus2

If only Jim Brown had played a few more years. What would the highlights of their collisions look like?? Yikes!! At 6’3 245 lbs, Butkus was the size of most offensive linemen in the 1960s and he used that mass to crush ball carriers. If you love the hitting element of football, you have to love the way he played.

One element of how fiercely he competed had to come from playing on such bad teams. During his 9 year career the Chicago Bears were bottom feeders in the NFL. In 1969 the Bears went 1-13 on a team with he and Gale Sayers who are both Hall of Famers. How bad was the rest of that team? He channeled that rage and frustration and took it out on his opponents. He was to the NFL’s first 50 years what Ray Lewis has been to the last 50 years: The best and hardest hitting linebacker of his era

Once we move into the future and the way football is played now we have to look at the next 50 years. Ray Lewis defined the 50 after Butkus and Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher was the next in Chicago Bears lineage that suited up after 2000. Great player but didnt engender the menace a visceral hitter like Butkus did. The two vids we just watched and you cringed at the hitting of an era gone by.

Butkus Dick Butkus was a legendary “Soul of The Game” performer.

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Brandon Marshall To The Bears

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Remember the time when the Bears, as an organization, were thought of as arcane and too conservative in the front office?? Not anymore. Today the Bears landed WR Brandon Marshall to reunite with QB Jay Cutler. The last time these two were together, Cutler was an up and coming gun slinger and Marshall was his go to guy with over 100 catches.

This is the third aggresive offseason acquisiton along with Jay Cutler& then Julius Peppers in recent years. It is also rumored that the Bears are after former Texan and overall #1 draft pick DE/LB Mario Williams. Talk about flashbacks to Dan Hampton and Richard Dent. Yikes!!

Yet this is about Marshall heading to the Bears. With this move, the Bears finally have a #1 receiver for Cutler who is a confidante to the often beleaguered quarterback. This should end the failed experiment of trying to make Devin Hester a polished receiver.

This team needed to make some bold moves to keep pace with the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. Couple Brandon Marshall with RB Matt Forte & Cutler, the Bears may have their big three. If they makr a fourth bold move and land Mario Williams they may have more than that.

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Week 7 NFC North: Sobering Developments

Every NFL season has it’s ups and downs. One month you’re a world beater and headed to the Super Bowl, once those other pesky ten games get out of the way. A month later you’re a team in search of a few answers on how to right the ship. Or in the case of the Chicago Bears, the mantra is to prove last year’s run to the NFC Championship wasn’t a fluke and they were / are worthy of primetime coverage. Last Sunday the Bears crossed the pond and held off an up and coming Tampa Bay team 24-18, for their 3rd win in 4 weeks.

Look no further than RB Matt Forte for their resurgence. Do you realize that in four weeks he’s run for 553 and 2 TDs and catapulted himself into one of the NFL’s rushing leaders with 672 yards?? He ranks third in rushing and with the Bears schedule becoming easier after this week’s bye, he could run the Bears right back into the playoff chase.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2011.htm  Has there been a running back this year who has played better than Forte?? we don’t think so. He also leads the team in receptions (39) and receiving yards (419) and if he keeps going may be up for NFL MVP consideration as well.

What is shocking is the Bears defense being ranked 24th in all of pro football. This week saw the Bears wave goodbye to S Chris Harris who started against the Bucs over at Wembley. Against the run they are a respectable 13th yet their pass defense has been awful of late ranking 27th. What is puzzling is the fact that the Bears are rushing the passer well. Led by Julius Peppers (4 sacks) there are at least four Bears with 3 sacks or more in just seven games. Lance Briggs was just named NFC Defensive Player of the Week and has 55 tackles. Urlacher is right behind him with 39 tackles and 3 interceptions. With all this pressure and solid linebacker play, what is going on in the secondary?? The play at nickleback and safety needs to be shored up. They have a bye week and then they face Philadelphia and the Michael Vick Experience. With so much attention on the World Champion Packers and the resurgent Lions, most experts don’t see this Bear team who quietly sits within striking distance of the division leaders.

 

NFC NORTH W L T PCT HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK
Green Bay 7 0 0 1.000 3-0-0 4-0-0 2-0-0 6-0-0 230 141 +89 Won 7
Detroit 5 2 0 .714 2-2-0 3-0-0 2-0-0 4-2-0 194 137 +57 Lost 2
Chicago 4 3 0 .571 3-1-0 1-2-0 1-2-0 4-3-0 170 150 +20 Won 2
Minnesota 1 6 0 .143 1-3-0 0-3-0 0-3-0 1-4-0 148 178 -30 Lost 2

A little wind has been swept from the sails of the Detroit Lions amidst back to back losses to San Francisco and Atlanta until you realize 6 of the 7 teams they have played are .500 and above. The Falcons have won their division 2 of the last 3 years and fighting to keep pace with the Saints and Bucs (whom the Lions beat already). Their other loss came was against the NFC West leading San Francisco 49ers. Each can be attributed to facing Pro Bowl caliber running backs in Frank Gore (141 yds /1TD) two weeks ago and Michael Turner (122 yds) who ran effectively against them. In fact the Lions are 28th against the run and has only held 1 team under 100 yards rushing this season. http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&season=2011&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

While the Lions have been a scoring machine the first 5 games they have been somewhat slowed in the last two. The missing punch out of the backfield in Mikel Leshoure, on injured reserve, is slowing this team down. Jahvid Best is filling the void as best he can but is a limited runner on 3rd and short. However the maturation of soon to be Pro Bowl quarterback Matthew Stafford (1,912 yards /16TDs & 4 int.) is right on schedule.https://taylorblitztimes.wordpress.com/2011/05/19/2011-detroit-lions-preview/ Calvin “Megatron” Johnson’s touchdowns have slowed a bit (8 in 4 games v. 2 in last 3 games) yet he topped 100 yards receiving in each defeat. They just have to get past Denver and recharge their batteries in the following bye week.  To us, these games seemed to be growing pains for a young team yet they should be concerned about their run defense. Especially in a rematch with the Bears with Matt Forte’s recent rushing performance.

Sailing along are the World Champion Packers whose offense is one of the best in all of football. Aaron Rodgers is moving well in the pocket and distributing the football without taking sacks or hits like he did last season. Concerns about his concussion situation seems a thing of the past. The Packers are passing at will on opponents who can’t generate enough heat to get to Rodgers. How affective are the champs with the ball? Well their offense is ranked #3 overall with Rodgers unbelievable statistics. Rodgers has completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,372 yards, 20TDs to only 3 interceptions. Yikes!! It’s as though he’s playing Madden Football on rookie. Do you realize he’s on pace to throw for 5,421 yards with 45 TDs. That would destroy Dan Marino’s single season yardage mark if maintained and just off pace to break Brady’s all time touchdown record. Lethal.

Lets ask a question: What happened to this defense?? Green Bay has been giving up candy on defense this year to the tune of 391 yards  per game. Where last year the team was galvanized and held together by the leagues’s #2 ranked defense, this year’s edition is ranked 27th. Without a significant injury to the starting 11, you’d have to say it’s a terrible performance. In 7 games they have only held one team to 10 or less. They even gave up 27 points to an inept rival Viking team last week.

Eventually offensive juggernauts fall to a superior defense in postseason play. The Packers are walking a tightrope. They want to finish like last year’s team with a Super Bowl victory yet are playing defense like their 2009 edition that was knocked out in the wildcard round. It would be best for this team to get to some Oklahoma drills this off week. Their title defense will come down to their defense in the end and they definitely have to play better.

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