2016 AFC North Previews & Predictions

Burfict returns however S Reggie Nelson has moved on.

Burfict returns however S Reggie Nelson has moved on.

The last time we looked in on the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers were embroiled in an epic playoff battle with the Cincinnati Bengals when the unexpected happened… Vontaze Burfict sealed what looked like the first playoff win of the Marvin Lewis era. Then a Jeremy Hill fumble while trying to run out the clock opened the door, and a few senseless defensive penalties allowed the Steelers to steal an 18-16 win.

These two antagonists renew acquaintances in week 2 in Pittsburgh and a few questions arise. Will the Steelers be able to move the ball on the ground with LeVeon Bell serving a 3 game suspension?? Can QB Andy Dalton get that signature win vs. a top AFC contender??  Have the Bengals learned from last year’s meltdown in January??

2016 AFC North Predctions

steelerimage1. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5 **

2. Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 *

3. Baltimore Ravens 6-10

4. Cleveland Browns 4-12

Cincinnati has a tough beginning to their season with 4 of 6 on the road which includes trips to Pittsburgh in week 2, and to New England in week 6. How New England fares during Brady’s 4 game suspension dictates how desperate the Patriots could be for a win. Typically these are the games Andy Dalton always seems to lose. Will 2016 be different?

bell2Speaking of suspensions, the Steelers will be without LeVeon Bell for the first 3 weeks of the season. The only AFC team they play in that stretch will be against the Bengals. So they have time to catch Cincinnati with a slow start. They’ll have to run the ball with DeAngelo Williams and rely on Ben Roethlisberger (319 of 469 for 3,938 yds 21 TDs/ 16 ints) and Antonio Brown.

Last year Brown came in 2nd to Cam Newton for the Taylor Blitz Times MVP for 2016. With 136 receptions for 1,834 yds and 10 TDs, he was within reach of both NFL records for receptions and yards. He’s quick in and out of his cuts and has the speed to get deep. Barring injury he’ll have a similar season with the added attention in Bell’s early season absence

With age catching up to Adrian Peterson, Bell is arguably the best back in the NFL when he’s healthy and will be rounding into shape as the Steelers make their playoff push.

The Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns will definitely be on the outside looking in. The Ravens will have Terrell Suggs and Steve Smith to lead them into battle on both sides of the ball. However the Ravens struggle to run the football and Joe Flacco will be coming off of major knee surgery himself. Before his injury he was playing like the east coast version of Alex Smith and checking the ball down too much. Now with him possibly being gun-shy expect more of the same.

One intriguing story to watch is the resurrection of Robert Griffin III and Terrelle Pryor in Cleveland. Head coach Hue Jackson has mentored a series of NFL quarterbacks to successful seasons. This could be a perfect storm of coaches and players all having something to prove and the ability to get it done. If Josh Gordon stays with the team, this could be fun to watch. It will come to fruition in 2017 not this year. However they will be a competitive team to watch offensively.

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2013 Cincinnati Bengals Team Preview – Slowly Building A Winner

Pau Brown Stadium

Pau Brown Stadium

Over the last two years the Cincinnati Bengals have charged into the NFL playoffs. It’s the first time they have gone in back to back years since 1982, the year after their appearance in Super Bowl XVI. In these recent years, they fell to the Houston Texans in the wildcard round of the playoffs. In 2011 they fell 31-10, however last year they lost a tightly contested contest 19-13. This year many pundits are calling the Houston Texans a Super Bowl favorite. If the Bengals have made strides to catch the Texans what does that make them??

If they were to meet the Texans for a third straight time in the playoffs, you do realize the odds are on the Bengals side…correct?? Over the course of NFL history, there are few teams that have won 3 in a row against an opponent in a five year period in the playoffs. Since 1950, only 4 times out of 11 had a team won all three times. Remember how the Indianapolis Colts vanquished playoff nemesis New England on their way to the Super Bowl XLI title?? How about when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers turned the tables on Philadelphia in the 2002 NFC Championship on their way to the Super Bowl XXXVIII title?? What are we getting at here?? Keep reading

Third year pro has led the Bengals to the playoffs in back to back years.

Third year pro has led the Bengals to the playoffs in back to back years.

Quarterback: Well coming off a sophomore slump is Andy Dal…wait…what sophomore slump?? Dalton is entering his third year where he improved on his rookie numbers in completion percentage (62.3% v. 58.1%), yards (3,669 v. 3,398) and touchdowns (28 v. 20). Now don’t forget he made the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2011. Now that the Bengals have opened up the playbook further for a growing quarterback, he did suffer a few more interceptions (16 v. 13) and sacks (46 v. 24) than the year before. However the arc is going up on this kid at the exact same time the division is losing Raven Safety Ed Reed, and he’ll face 32 year old Safeties in Troy Palamalu along with a 34 year old Ryan Clark when he faces the Steelers. If their healthy.

He has gained NFL playoff experience over these last two years and you have to ask yourself; Is this the year he can break through and win a playoff game?? He has to continue his maturation for this to happen. Last year he didn’t look good in the wild card loss to the Texans. He was 14 of 30 for only 127 yards and 1 interception. He was a little unnerved by the crowd noise in Houston. He was apprehensive in that game and had to live with that the whole off-season.

He hasn’t missed a game in his brief career. At 6-2 215lbs, he is a big strong quarterback. He isn’t a threat to run like some of his contemporaries who have dazzled in The Pistol, however he did run for 4TDs last year. He isn’t afflicted by the Bengals losing ways of the past and has helped the team improve from 9-7 in 2011 to 10-6 in 2012. Only an injury seems to be all that could derail further development. Dalton is no fluke and gives the Bengals a fighting chance and ranks as a playoff caliber quarterback.

Offensive Backfield: This is where the Bengals should use a draft pick in a couple of weeks. Last year the Bengals let go of Cedric Benson and former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 1,097 yards and 6TDs. He is a steady but not spectacular player. Yet just like Benson, they keep grabbing running backs off the scrap heap. To take the next step they need to put a play maker at this position instead of a stop-gap performer. With all the SEC picks in the last few years, would they take Eddie Lacy out of Alabama?

http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000122777/RB-Green-Ellis-29-yd-run

The time is now to plug in a viable rookie running back with Green-Ellis still in the fold. He’s only 27 and has a few years left in him. Bengals brass has also re-signed Cedric Peerman who had a better average than Green-Ellis (4.7 yard avg v. 3.9 yard avg) but there had to be a reason why they named Green-Ellis a starter over him. It couldn’t have been pass protection with the team giving up so many sacks. Cincinnati needs a runner not a ball carrier to push the envelope. The league average for yardage per rush is always around 4.0 and that’s all they can get with these players. With that in mind the Bengals can only be average at the position. Maybe Green-Ellis in his second year with the team can be that guy. We’ll wait and see.

AJ Green is the best young receiver in the AFC, period.

AJ Green is the best young receiver in the AFC, period.

Receivers: The other component to the equation why the Bengals are rising to prominence has been the play of AJ Green and TE Jermaine  Gresham. Both are coming off back to back Pro Bowl seasons even though they are so young. In only his second season, Green caught 97 passes for 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns. Do you realize he caught 32 more passes than his rookie year? He improved in all statistical categories. The Bengals have to develop or draft a complement to him so teams, like the Texans in last year’s playoffs, can’t roll coverage to his side.

Green has been able to blossom due to safeties having to pay attention to Gresham in the middle. At 6’5 261lbs, he is too much man for most safeties and linebackers struggle with his speed. He’s the AFC version of Vernon Davis just not as fast. Last year he had 64 receptions for 737 yards and 5 TDs. Career highs in catches and yardage. If the Bengals weren’t in so many spread formations, he would be a 1,000 yard performer. Do you realize he’s only going into his 4th season?? These two alone make the receiving corps. playoff caliber. Develop or draft another receiver and they will be Super Bowl quality.

Offensive Line: This is another area where the Bengals should look on draft day to improve team fortunes. Last year the Bengals rushed for 1,745 yards and 11 TDs. Very middle of the pack numbers in terms of production. Keep in mind they allowed 46 sacks which ranked 26th in the league. Now is not the time for RT Andre Smith to play hardball in contract negotiations. If they lose him they may have to draft a tackle in the first round. When rushing to the strong side last year, the Bengals were thrown for losses 10 times. While in obvious power situations (3rd /4th and 2 or goal line) they converted on 76% of their attempts. All factors indicate he will re-sign.

Left Tackle Andrew Whitworth just came off his first Pro Bowl and is going into his 8th season. Where he didn’t have to face a James Harrison in Pittsburgh last year, he’ll face division new comer Elvis Dumervil in Baltimore.  Elvis did beat him for a sack in last year’s 31-23 loss to the Broncos. This will be his nemesis when they face the Ravens. However up the middle is where the running game is most solid and should improve with Guards Kevin Zeitler and Clint Boling who will be 23 and 24 respectively. This group needs to improve in their pass protection and right now they are just average.

Geno Atkins leads the Bengals beastly pass rush.

Geno Atkins leads the Bengals beastly pass rush.

Defensive Line: One of the best defenses in the NFL is strongest right on the defensive front with DT/NT Geno Atkins and DE Michael Johnson. Atkins is only going into his fourth year and has been to the Pro Bowl two straight years. Last year he was 5th on the team in tackles with 54, had 12 1/2 sacks, and four forced fumbles while being voted All Pro. Johnson was right behind him with 52 tackles, 11 1/2 sacks as the team was 2nd in sacks with 52. Wallace Gilberry and Carlos Dunlap gave them 4 linemen with at least 6 sacks. This is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Linebackers: The surprising play of free agent rookie Vontaze Burfict gave the team a faster look on defense than in years prior. In only 14 starts, he led the team with 127 total tackles and had 1 sack. Rey Maualuga was right behind him with 122 stops and another sack. They just need to force more turnovers by interception or fumbles to be a great group.  If they can get a third blood thirsty linebacker behind that pass rush..watch out! Still a playoff caliber group with Manny Lawson still on board. Former Steeler James Harrison is close to a deal also. To add to the pass rush they already have??

Secondary: Did you know the Bengals were ranked 7th in the NFL against the pass and was 4th in passing touchdowns allowed  with 16?? They were right there with Atlanta (14), Seattle (15), and Baltimore (15) respectively. You’ll note that one won the Super Bowl and the other two battled to make the NFC Championship Game. However this group hasn’t lost anyone like the Ravens losing Ed Reed or the Falcons losing CB Brent Grimes to the Dolphins.

Defensive Co-Ordinator Mike Zimmer gets the most out of a hodge podge veteran laden group that doesn’t give up the big play. Leon Hall (37 tackles / 2 ints) is solid on one corner where they may need to look for Terrence Newman’s ( 73 tackles / 2 ints) replacement on the other side. He’s still playing well but will be 35 when the season starts. Adam “PacMan” Jones is there to lend support as is Nate Clements formerly of the Bills and Niners. Clements made the switch to safety for 9 games last season yet may have to mold a young safety if the Bengals can draft one. Another season like last year and Reggie Nelson will be in the Pro Bowl. He was 3rd on the team in tackles with 83, defensed 9 passes, and had 3 picks. This group is Super Bowl caliber based on their collective production.

Vontaze Burfict is another reason the Bengals are going to make a move in 2013.

Vontaze Burfict is another reason the Bengals are going to make a move in 2013.

Overview: This is as solid a team that the AFC has to offer. Their greatest asset this year is the continuity in coaches and player personnel. Then you look at the relative youth of all the key positions with Dalton, AJ Green, Vontaze Burfict, and Geno Atkins. Now The Chancellor has had his eye on this defense for some time now. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2011/11/01/week-8-afc-north-protecting-the-nfl-republic/ This team has an arc that is still going up. They were 7th in defense in 2011 and improved to 6th last year. This is no fluke.

If you look at their division record, in 2011 it was 2-4 which improved to 3-3 in 2012. They finished 10-6 which was the identical record of the Super Bowl Champion Ravens. Yet look at all the upheaval of personnel in both Baltimore and Pittsburgh this offseason. Now think of the hole Elvis Dumervil left in the Broncos defense. Who has a better defense than this football team??  The Bengals can finally concentrate on luxuries in the draft without any obvious weaknesses. Having adjusted to playing near the league’s elite, this young team will crash the playoffs and might make it to Super Bowl XLVIII. Don’t forget the first cold weather Super Bowl had the Bengals in the 16th edition. They will at least make it to the AFC Championship Game. You heard it here first.

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Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Week 8 AFC North: Protecting the NFL Republic

Bengals defense has been beastly the first half of the ’11 season.

With all this talk of wide open offenses in the NFL this year, there is a division where a more traditional game favors the defensive side of the football. The AFC North. Going into yesterday’s games, this division’s four teams ranked 1, 2, 3, & 4 in total defense. Surprisingly it was the Cincinnati Bengals who has led for most of the year before being overtaken by the Ravens. Baltimore luckily had a chance to pad their stats on Monday Night playing an inept Jacksonville team in a 12-7 upset loss.

Each team has the old mantra of running tough, milking the clock, and supplement that with timely passing. Yet the main ingredient is defense, defense, defense. For it was the swarming defense of  the Cincinnati Bengals that knocked the offensive minded Buffalo Bills from the ranks of the unbeaten earlier this year 23-20. This was one week after coming out on the short end of a 13-8 alley fight with the 49ers.

These are your Cincinnati Bengals. One year removed from a season that saw Pri-Madonnas Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco fail as Batman and Robin. Watched their franchise quarterback in Carson Palmer threaten to retire over returning to the team. No problem, Bengals draft TCU’s Andy Dalton and fed Cedric Benson the football. Such thinking has been rewarded with 458 yards and 2 TDs despite the fact he sat out yesterday’s 34-12 beat down of Seattle. Dalton has endured a rookie season baptism by fire where he’s finished the first half of the season with 1,479 yards, 9 TDs and 7 interceptions. He is this year’s Mark Sanchez where he’s not being asked to do to much, rely on his running game and his defense. After a 5-2 start, it’s safe to say that Marvin Lewis and his Bengals have an old tried and true winning NFL formula working for them.

As for the defense, Geno Atkins leads the way with 3 sacks with Jonathon Fanene following with 3. Safety Reggie Nelson leads the way with 45 tackles with Ray Maualuga cleaning up with a hard hitting 38. Were you looking for extremely high numbers?? Sorry you don’t understand the formula. Run the football and minimize how much your defense has to play. Been a staple for over 93 years in the NFL. Lets take a look at the standings as well.

AFC NORTH W L T PCT HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK
Pittsburgh 6 2 0 .750 4-0-0 2-2-0 0-1-0 4-2-0 176 139 +37 Won 4
Cincinnati 5 2 0 .714 2-1-0 3-1-0 1-0-0 4-1-0 171 123 +48 Won 4
Baltimore 5 2 0 .714 4-0-0 1-2-0 1-0-0 3-2-0 185 110 +75 Won 1
Cleveland 3 4 0 .429 2-2-0 1-2-0 0-1-0 2-3-0 107 140 -33 Lost 1

Returning to the leader board after 4 straight wins are the defending AFC Champion Steelers who has seen it’s defense surrender more yards than in year’s past. In 2010 the Steelers were tremendous holding opponents to 62.5 yards per game rushing. This year they have had some struggles yet have bounced back to a respectable 8th allowing 99.1 and this week they get James Harrison back from injury. With a rubber match head knocker this week against division rival Baltimore, all hands need to be on deck. However it was the Ravens that bludgeoned the Steelers with 170 yards rushing in week one. In Harrison’s absence, LaMarr Woodley has picked up the slack and leads the team with 9 sacks. Two of which came in last week’s 25-17 win over decade long nemesis Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

Woodley sacks rookie Blaine Gabbert

Yet there are points for concern. Do you realize the win over New England represents their only win over a winning team this season?? Also for all the hard hitting the Steelers have been known for they have only forced 3 turnovers and 2 of those are interceptions. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/2011.htm Right now their leading tacklers are safeties Ryan Clark (50) and Troy Palamalu (48) which shows teams are moving the Steelers off the line of scrimmage. Truth be told they have an easy schedule that may be masking the real Steelers. Right now Pittsburgh is #2 overall in defense yet if you take out the win over New England, their wins come over the Colts (30th in offense), Seattle (31st), Tennessee (25th), Jacksonville (32nd or last), and Arizona (20th).

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2011&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

Just think it’s these anemic offenses that have passed for 10 TDs and only 2 interceptions?? This team is still deficient at defending the pass as they were in last February’s Super Bowl. Right now they are winning on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger. His 365 yards and 2TDs were the difference in the Steelers win on Sunday. Rashard Mendenhall has been solid (421 yds /3 TDs) however it’s come down to one frantic 3rd down scramble & throw after another to sustain drives. Can this formula keep?? If they can win this week at home against Baltimore they can sustain that they are in fact still the team to beat in the AFC North. A loss here and indeed the Ravens will have swept their nemesis and dropped them to 1-3 against teams with winning records. Which will really raise serious doubts on their ability to make it back to the AFC Championship Game.

Ready to try and sweep the Steelers are the up and down Baltimore Ravens. How is it the Ravens lost to the 2-6 Jaguars just two weeks ago 12-7 and to the Titans earlier in the season 26-13?? This team needs to quit overlooking it’s lessor opposition. Joe Flacco is coming under all kinds of heat for not showing much improvement over these last few seasons. He checks the football down too much and isn’t running the total offense when it comes to taking to the air. Yet the NFL’s #1 defense has led them to a 3-1 record against team’s with winning records. Ray Lewis (who else) leads the way with 55 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and 1 interception. As a unit they have 17 sacks, 7 interceptions and 6 fumble recoveries. Again it is up to this unit to carry this team as far as it can go.

The Ravens offense is too reliant on Ray Rice. He’s been super productive out of the backfield with 489 yards rushing, 5 TDs and 33 receptions for 373 yards and 2 more touchdowns. However his playing style takes too many hits and he may wear down by season’s end with this his 3rd season with such a heavy workload. It’s imperative that Flacco make better use of his receivers aside from Anquan Boldin (34 rec. 539 yds 2TDs) and TE Ed Dickson. Flacco is too predictable when you show him zone he won’t throw to the second level and just dumps it to Rice. He will be the reason this team doesn’t make it to the Super Bowl. In his 4th season he should have shown the growth to master more of the offense and learn the nuances of the quarterback position. Will he throw to the second level against the Steelers this week??

Cleveland’s D’Qwell Jackson is having a Pro Bowl season

Rounding out this defensive group are the “No Name” Cleveland Browns who are in the midst of shaping the same gameplan around a young QB in Colt McCoy while pounding the opposition with Peyton Hillis. Yet this season Hillis (211 yards / 2TDs) has been nicked with an assortment of injuries and has shared time with Montario Hardesty (244 yards). The Browns have been playing close to the vest games all year thanks to a defense filled with No Names that have roped teams into defensive struggles. Last Sunday they were out in San Francisco in another slugfest where they lost a close one 20-10. The 49ers jumped to an early17-3 lead and were nearly shut out from that point on. Again this defense was let down by an offense that couldn’t get out of it’s own way being held to 66 yards rushing. In their defense they were down to a second string running back with both Hillis and Hardesty out with injuries.

So how are the Browns just 3-4?? They have been able to best the weak teams in defensive struggles and can’t get over the hump when they require more offense. Their 5th ranked defense has been led by D’Qwell Jackson, a fifth year linebacker out of Maryland, who is having the best season of any MLB /ILB. He’s corralled 64 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 fumble recoveries and looks like a young Ray Lewis. In fact this team has 17 sacks while forcing 8 turnovers. Four linemen have multiple sacks so far this season, their first under defensive co-ordinator Dick Jauron. Their a hodge podge group of veteran free agents and a few unheard of stars like Jackson. If they can get through the next three games relatively healthy, five of their final 6 games are against defensive brethren in cold weather. Their defense can only carry them so far. Otherwise they stand a chance to make some serious noise in the division if they can get some offensive help. Will they get it??

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