2014 AFC Pedictions

Under normal circumstances Taylor Blitz Times would have these published before the season starts. However this has been a different off-season where more focus was on historical articles. Although we’re 1 week into the new season, we still haven’t seen a sample size large enough to alter The Chancellor of Football’s picks.

2014 AFC Champions will be the Denver Broncos

2014 AFC Champions will be the Denver Broncos

AFC North Champs: Cincinnati Bengals

AFC East Champs: New England Patriots

AFC South Champs: Indianapolis Colts

AFC West Champs: Denver Broncos

Wildcards: Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens

The representative to make it to Glendale, AZ and Super Bowl XLIX will be the Denver Broncos. They will narrowly defeat the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game they should win at home.

Ware will make Von Miller a better player as well.

Ware will make Von Miller a better player as well.

Lets face facts, not many trust Bengals QB Andy Dalton but he will take a big step up this year and win his first playoff game. He won’t have the moxie to take on not only Peyton Manning but what should be one of the AFC’s best defenses. The signing of DeMarcus Ware, TJ Ward, and Aquib Talib give the Broncos a defensive swagger they haven’t had before.

More importantly none of these players have won a championship which only adds to the overall hunger of the team. The Broncos won’t score anywhere near last year’s 606 point performance. They won’t have to as they will become more balanced.

The player that is growing on The Chancellor the most is Andrew Luck.

The player that is growing on The Chancellor the most is Andrew Luck.

Right behind these two teams will be the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. Was there anyone more impressive than Andrew Luck in week 1 of the NFL season?? The fight he brought the Colts back with was infectious. He made his entire team believe they could come back and they were playing without DE/LB Robert Mathis. The Colts gained more from that 31-24 loss in Denver than teams that won in the first week.

The Patriots will bounce back from week 1 but will they feel the effects of trading away G Logan Mankins the rest of the season?? Brady and the offense was under attack in their 2nd half loss to the Dolphins. They gained less than 100 yards as Miami pulled away. Bill Belichick will right the ship and they should win the AFC East with at least 11 wins.

The Bengals and Colts look like the two that will play in the 2015 AFC Championship Game however we have to get through 2014 first. The Broncos will look to take a more battle hardened team to Glendale than the one they took to New York last year. Will Denver win Super Bowl XLIX??

 

The Immaculate Reception Encore: 1972 AFC Championship Game

The No Name Defense stopping Franco Harris in the '72 AFC Championship Game.

The No Name Defense stopping Franco Harris in the ’72 AFC Championship Game.

One of the unique themes in NFL history is whenever a team has a famous miracle playoff win, those teams rarely win the Super Bowl. Well even the NFL championship for that matter when you think back to Detroit’s 31-27 win over San Francisco in the 1957 playoffs. In that game the 49ers were up 24-7 in the 3rd quarter only to lose to a series of backups for the Lions. It was the only instance where a miracle playoff win would culminate with a league championship. Fast forward to The Immaculate Reception and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1972 playoffs.

After winning their first ever playoff game over the Oakland Raiders, most people forget they ran smack into the undefeated Miami Dolphins. As far as the AFC Championship Game, the Steelers were playing with house money. They were one game away from the Super Bowl and were able to host the championship game since it was rotated by division back then.

Pete Rozelle didn’t institute home field advantage until 1978. He did it as a means to reward not only the team with the best record. He wanted to insure teams would play all the way through their schedule and not take the final weeks off. Yet in ’72, the 14-0 Miami Dolphins traveled to the 11-3 steel city to take on Franco’s Italian Army for the right to go to Super Bowl VII.

It was the first of only three times Don Shula and Miami would meet Chuck Noll’s Steelers in the playoffs during their coaching careers. Noll had served on Shula’s staff in Baltimore and had ties dating back to the Cleveland Browns of the 1950’s where they were both players.

Ironically the case remains. Why is it when a team should be riding an emotional lift like a miracle finish in the playoffs, they don’t win it all?? It’s easy to say they let down but would it be more that they’re an incomplete team that gets exposed as competition gets better?? The ’72 Steelers (Immaculate Reception) the ’72 Cowboys (Roger’s 1st comeback) the ’75 Cowboys (Hail Mary) ’80 Cowboys (Duel In Dixie) ’86 Denver Broncos (The Drive) ’99 Tennessee Titans (Homerun Throwback) all fell short of winning it all….. The lone exception would be the 1981 San Francisco 49ers with The Catch. 

RIP Coach Noll

RIP Coach Noll

Chuck Noll would obviously make his mark, embarking on one of the greatest runs in history. Over the next 7 seasons, his team made the playoffs every year with their winning a Super Bowl in 4 of those seasons. We lost another legend with Noll’s passing Friday night. This article is dedicated to the Hall of Fame coach…

SUPER BOWL VI RUNNER UP 1971 MIAMI DOLPHINS

Super Bowl VI in New Orleans pitted Dallas v. Miami.  The first serious season in the sun for Miami came to an inglorious end with a 24-3 loss yet served to be the springboard for the undefeated 1972 season that were to come.  However the trip through the AFC playoffs was an exercise in self discovery with the 2OT win over the Chiefs and the 21-0 AFC Championship over Shula’s former team and defending Super Bowl champion Colts.

superbowlvi2My feeling is this team had to have been emotionally drained by the time Super Bowl VI was kicked off.  If you look at the divisional playoff game, which was the longest game ever played at 82:40, that’s almost a game and a half that went deep into the 6th quarter!  Ed Podolak was a beast in that game for Kansas City with 350 all purpose yards.

It was a draining game being played away from home on Christmas of all things.  Miami outlasted the Chiefs (Super Bowl IV winner) 27-24 and staggered off to the AFC Championship game.

 

super-bowl-logo-1971If you read my post on the Super Bowl watch the Colts received for losing Super Bowl III, you remember me speaking on the corporate pressures that hastened Don Shula’s departure and Carroll Rosenbloom (then Colts owner) switching ownership with the Rams.

Well Rosenbloom was still the Colts owner when they won Super Bowl V and were headed down to Miami to play the AFC Championship game to make it to Super Bowl VI.  You knew that Shula and Rosenbloom both wanted that game against one another.  You know Shula was pushing the Dolphins hard that week and answering questions about playing his former team.  The Dolphins prevailed 21-0 and were off to New Orleans.

This team must have been exhausted going into that game coupled with the excitement of being in their first Super Bowl too.  They had to be drained… Alook back will show you no team that won a playoff game going into 6 quarters has gone on to win the Super Bowl in the same season. They were just the first to experience this type of exhaustion.

Yet this is the ring for conquering the rest of the AFC, and we know of course the Dolphins went on to back to back wins in Super Bowl VII and VIII.

Legends of The Fall: Dan Marino

When you ask someone what their definition of a great quarterback is, you invariably wind up with several answers. The one attribute in everyone’s criteria is that of a great passer. It can be argued that Dan Marino was the best pure passer in NFL history. Everyone mentions his quick release but forgets how fiery his delivery of the football was.

To define his quick release, for the football coaching impaired, is the time it took to complete his throwing motion. The easiest way to measure this back then were to slow film down to individual frames. The average QB release would take 15 frames where Marino was routinely between 8 & 9. So the ball was coming out half a second sooner.

Marino's legendary release.

Marino’s legendary release.

The direct results were more passes getting downfield and less sacks. If we look at his peak years of 1984-1986, Marino was only sacked 48 times while attempting 1,754 passes. The Dolphins led the league in fewest sacks all 3 seasons. Yet through that explosive delivery was the zip and hutzpah he put on the football. For he had one of the strongest arms in league history.

Unlike Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, who had league rules altered year after year to make them record breakers, Marino came in and shattered records through sheer ability. People talk of the great class of 1983 and most want to talk about John Elway first. Oh yeah?? Take a look at something:

  • Marino ’84-’86 – 1076 of 1754 for 13,967 yards & 122 TDs
  • Elway ’84-’86 – 821 of 1489 for 9,974 yards & 59 TDs

* To match Marino’s 122 TD total you would have to have Elway’s total from 1984 to the 13th week of the 1990 season! Almost 4 more years!

During this time both Marino and Elway had taken their teams to Super Bowl XIX and XXI respectively. Of these vids, if you only watch one, watch the 1986 vignette. Yet I digress… take a look at Marino’s record breaking fast pitch 1984:

Then you have 1985 where he led the Dolphins back to the AFC Championship Game. Had they won, we would have had a rematch between Marino and Chicago’s 46 defense in Super Bowl XX. Considering Miami gave the 18-1 Bears their only defeat, its something to think about.

Then you have perhaps his greatest season in 1986:

What made his 1986 season special is he was truly all they had and teams still couldn’t stop him. In 1984 he still had many teammates who had made it to Super Bowl XVII the year before he was drafted. The Killer Bs defense was there but aging. By 1986 most of those teammates were gone as a rebuliding phase had started. Still he went 378 of 623 for 4,746 yards and 44 touchdowns. The 44 was 8 more than the previous record and he was within 56 yards of Fouts’ other mark of 4,802.

Dan Marino bust

Also because it was the second time scaling those heights. He had set the record of 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns in his 1984 campaign. He shattered the old record of 36 touchdowns which had stood for 21 years. He did it in his first full season as a starter. Not his 7th or 8th when Manning and Brady finally topped his mark.

Or lets really bake your noodle for perspective: In 2004, Peyton Manning broke Marino’s record of 48 with 49TD tosses. If he destroyed Marino’s record to the degree Dan had in 1984, Manning would have needed to throw for 64 f’n touchdowns! Not just one more

Ultimately it was the fact that the game had passed by Don Shula as to why Marino didn’t make it back to the Super Bowl. The rest of his career the Dolphins failed to get a prime time receiver or runner. In 1995 they were the poster child for why the quick fix free agent route wasn’t the best place to build a team.

Yet when you look back at the promise of a young Dan Marino, the sky was the limit. He was definitely a legend of the fall.

Thanks for reading and please share the article. Don’t forget to subscribe!

Week 15: Will A Dominant Team Please Stand Up?!??

The late great NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle used to speak all the time about parody in the National Football League. Yet what we have seen over the last four days may have been tantamount to what his wishes were but it leaves a lot to be desired.

127888192_crop_650x440First on Thursday night the 11-3 Denver Broncos, who had the inside pole position for home field advantage, lose to the 7-7 San Diego Chargers 27-20. All of a sudden the Patriots can have home field if they win out. Oops they slipped on a banana peel against the 8-6 Miami Dolphins 24-20 and dropped to 10-4. Sure the Patriots had won 5 of 6 before that but they needed last second wins in 3 of those. The Broncos had won 6 of 7, yet lost at Invesco Field. Not the message to send to the league when securing home field.

Greg Jennings and the Vikings stunned the Eagles.

Greg Jennings and the Vikings stunned the Eagles.

Then we move to the NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles who were on a five game winning streak. All they had to do was keep their #2 ranked offense on track against a 31st ranked defense in Minnesota. Nevermind the Vikings were 3-7-1 in their last 11 games. They fell 48-30 and the chance for the Dallas Cowboys to tie them in the division.

The Cowboys knew that when they took the field agianst the Green Bay Packers led by back-up quarterback Matt Flynn. They stormed out to a 26-3 halftime lead, then did their best Run & Shoot impression and refused to run the football and use the clock. The Packers roared back and won 37-36 scoring on all five second half possessions and Tony Romo… sigh…pulled a Tony Romo. The 8-6 Eagles accidentally still lead the 7-7 Cowboys in the NFC East.

Did we say something about accidentally leading their division?? Take the Cincinnati Bengals. They took the field after the Patriots lost and now can take the #2 seed if they won their game with the Pittsburgh Steelers and won their next two games. Then they hit their heads on the goalposts in Pittsburgh and was down 21-0 at the end of the first quarter en route to a 30-20 loss to their division rival. Viola!! Back to the #3 spot that would have them playing on wildcard weekend.

The Bengals gave up 21 points to the Steelers before they got out of the 1st quarter.

The Bengals gave up 21 points to the Steelers before they got out of the 1st quarter.

Even the Arizona Cardinals almost pulled a fast one on themsleves. In the hunt for the final NFC playoff spot with an 8-5 record, and winners of 6 out of 7 contests traveled to Tennessee. They were up 34-17 in the fourth over a Titan team that had lost their starting quarterback for the season and losers of 4 of their last 5 contests. Wouldn’t you know they played down to their competition and allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to look like Joe Montana in roaring back to tie the game at 34. Just before the Cardinals could botch their season they squeezed out a 37-34 win.

Que the video short of Vince Lombardi screaming “What the hell is going on out here?!?”

Next to screw things up are the Baltimore Ravens. Thanks to the Bengals gaffe last night, they control their own destiny and can win the AFC North. No way can they in this weekend of parody not screw this up and lose to the Detroit Lions tonight. Stay tuned.

As for the teams that are making a case for being dominant, the Seattle Seahawks just finished their 2013 road stanza with a gaudy 6-2 record. Their next away game will be Super Bowl XLIII in the Meadowlands with just one more win. Considering they haven’t lost at home in nearly two years, this is a case for dominance. Counting their  6-0 home record, Seattle’s average margin of victory at home is by 3 touchdowns at 18.6.

Cold beer thrown on him from Oakland fans couldn't cool down Jamaal Charles near record day.

Cold beer thrown on him from Oakland fans couldn’t cool down Jamaal Charles near record day.

The Chiefs aren’t quite making a case for dominance but Jamaal Charles is. Andy Reid and the coaches should be ashamed they didn’t pay attention to the fact that Charles was 1 touchdown short of tying Gale Sayers, Dub Jones, and Ernie Nevers all time record of 6 touchdowns. With 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter you’d think someone would get that information to the sideline. Hell George Halas had pulled Gale Sayers with 5 touchdowns until the crowd called for Sayers to go for another.  Well he’ll have to settle for the Chiefs record book with his 215 yards from scrimmage 5 TDs including 4 receiving.

Lost in the shuffle is the fact that a defensive first team the first part of the season has transformed into an offensive team. Going into yesterday’s battle with Oakland, the Chiefs had averaged 37 points per game over the last four weeks. After yesterday’s 56-31 win, that averaged moved up to 41.75 over five games. Slightly better than AFC West rival Denver’s 32.5 points per game. Yet Denver swept the Chiefs and both have 11-3 records. The Chiefs are forced to see if the Broncos will blink in their final contests @ Houston then @ Oakland.  As you’ve just read with all these teams, stranger things just happened.

Thanks for reading and please share the article.

Miami Dolphins Making Moves on Free Agency Day One

Danell Ellerbe has flown the Ravens coup.

Danell Ellerbe has flown the Ravens coup.

If  you thought it was going to be difficult for the Ravens to stay among the league’s elite, things just got worse. One day after trading away Anquan Boldin, they lose the free agent they most wanted to keep in linebacker Danell Ellerbe.  He just signed with the Miami Dolphins. Today he received a 5 year $35 million deal that takes him down to sunny Florida. They should have franchised him…now his 89 tackles and 4 1/2 sacks will be in the AFC East.

Wallace is on his way to South Beach.

Wallace is on his way to South Beach.

Now add to that the Dolphins also signed WR Mike Wallace to a 5 year $60 million deal to leave the Steelers. Right now his agent is with the Dolphins brass to solidify the deal. They gave Ryan Tannenhill a deep threat that should open a few things up for Davone Bess and other underneath receivers. However they signed him for a guaranteed $30 million. Will these moves pan out?? Will the Dolphins make a move in the AFC East?? Don’t forget they are probably going to lose Reggie Bush.

Thanks for reading and please share the article.

 

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!