2014 NFC Predictions

If there is one thing we learned from week 2 of the NFL, it’s that appearances are deceiving. Are the Seahawks as vulnerable as they appeared in a 30-21 loss to San Diego?? Have we begun to see the cracks in the 49er defense, after allowing Chicago to score 21 4th quarter points in a 28-20 loss?? Seriously if they lose to Arizona this week, they’ll be 3rd in the west??

One pass defense could have altered the legacies of both teams.

Seattle Seahawks will be the 2014 NFC Champions.

NFC North Champs: Chicago Bears

NFC East Champs: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC South Champs: Atlanta Falcons

NFC West Champs: Seattle Seahawks

Wildcards: Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints

Joining The Chancellor of Football in Glendale Arizona and Super Bowl XLIX from the NFC will be the Seattle Seahawks. They will renew their playoff rivalry when they beat the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game.

With another Super Bowl title, Lynch could be building a Hall of Fame resume.

With another Super Bowl title, Lynch could be building a Hall of Fame resume.

The Falcons went into the tank when they lost Julio Jones last year. They lost 6 games last year by 6 points or less. Not only do they bring back the big play with his return, now they have Devin Hester in the slot. This offense will be the scourge of the south. They just need to be adequate on defense and should finish with 12 wins.

Similar situation will happen in the NFC North. Not in Green Bay but in the Windy City. Marc Trestman’s offense in it’s 2nd year should roll with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Matt Forte. The Bears receiving corps is so imposing they could win hurt just running hooks against the 49ers last week. No intricate pass patterns and  they scored 21 unanswered points.

Yes you did read correct The Chancellor of Football doesn’t think San Francisco will make the playoffs. A knee jerk reaction to blowing a big lead in week 2?? No try Taylor Blitz’s NFC West Preview before the season. They will lose to the Cardinals this week and the pressure will build from there.

Calais Campbell has to come up big this season.

Calais Campbell has to come up big this season.

Which brings us to the Cardinals who will win today to start 3-0. A great start but the losses they took on defense will take it’s toll as teams develop game plans for this new personnel. They surprised San Diego in week 1 with cover 0 blitzes. In fact, on the last 3 plays to end the game. Last week they beat the back pedaling Giants who look lost on offense. They are masking their limitations at linebacker with all this blitzing. It will catch up to them.

Sproles has been the sparkplug behindthe Eagles 2-0 start.

Sproles has been the sparkplug behindthe Eagles 2-0 start.

The Philadelphia Eagles will win the NFC East with the best personnel in the division. The acquisition of Darren Sproles will pay dividends all season. The inability to account for him has led to mismatches and huge momentum changing plays. These were the plays he used to make for the Saints when they’re offense bogged down.

Sproles change of pace plays are exactly what the Saints miss in the NFC South. Although they’re 0-2, they lost those games by 3 points and 2 points respectively. We’re only talking a few plays per game difference and they’d be 2-0. Sproles is /was that difference. Sean Payton is using Mark Ingram more in the passing game but he’s not the dynamic playmaker Sproles was. Brees and the offense will get it together despite the slow start.

Cliff Avril still brings pressure from the edge.

Cliff Avril still brings pressure from the edge.

Last week the Seahawks learned what it meant to be the Super Bowl for every opponent they will face this year. The Chargers were crisp and physical in their offensive execution. This week they get to right the ship against the finesse Denver Broncos. One aspect of their defense this year is they need more heat on the quarterback. So far they have just 4 sacks and a 1-1 record. They will right the ship and should finish with homefield advantage.

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2014 AFC Pedictions

Under normal circumstances Taylor Blitz Times would have these published before the season starts. However this has been a different off-season where more focus was on historical articles. Although we’re 1 week into the new season, we still haven’t seen a sample size large enough to alter The Chancellor of Football’s picks.

2014 AFC Champions will be the Denver Broncos

2014 AFC Champions will be the Denver Broncos

AFC North Champs: Cincinnati Bengals

AFC East Champs: New England Patriots

AFC South Champs: Indianapolis Colts

AFC West Champs: Denver Broncos

Wildcards: Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens

The representative to make it to Glendale, AZ and Super Bowl XLIX will be the Denver Broncos. They will narrowly defeat the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game they should win at home.

Ware will make Von Miller a better player as well.

Ware will make Von Miller a better player as well.

Lets face facts, not many trust Bengals QB Andy Dalton but he will take a big step up this year and win his first playoff game. He won’t have the moxie to take on not only Peyton Manning but what should be one of the AFC’s best defenses. The signing of DeMarcus Ware, TJ Ward, and Aquib Talib give the Broncos a defensive swagger they haven’t had before.

More importantly none of these players have won a championship which only adds to the overall hunger of the team. The Broncos won’t score anywhere near last year’s 606 point performance. They won’t have to as they will become more balanced.

The player that is growing on The Chancellor the most is Andrew Luck.

The player that is growing on The Chancellor the most is Andrew Luck.

Right behind these two teams will be the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. Was there anyone more impressive than Andrew Luck in week 1 of the NFL season?? The fight he brought the Colts back with was infectious. He made his entire team believe they could come back and they were playing without DE/LB Robert Mathis. The Colts gained more from that 31-24 loss in Denver than teams that won in the first week.

The Patriots will bounce back from week 1 but will they feel the effects of trading away G Logan Mankins the rest of the season?? Brady and the offense was under attack in their 2nd half loss to the Dolphins. They gained less than 100 yards as Miami pulled away. Bill Belichick will right the ship and they should win the AFC East with at least 11 wins.

The Bengals and Colts look like the two that will play in the 2015 AFC Championship Game however we have to get through 2014 first. The Broncos will look to take a more battle hardened team to Glendale than the one they took to New York last year. Will Denver win Super Bowl XLIX??


2014 NFC West Predictions

Its football season and all is right with the world. Unlike in previous seasons, The Chancellor of Football spent the majority of this summer writing historical pieces instead of in depth team previews. However nearly every preseason game was watched as well as the roster moves for the top tier teams. So without further adieu lets take a look at the NFC for 2014.

Seattle Seahawks alternate logo.

Seattle Seahawks alternate logo.

NFC West

1. Seahawks 14-2**

2. 49ers 9-7

3. Cardinals 7-9

4. Rams 4-12

No division will see as big a drop off in production as the NFC West. Once the province of 3 Super Bowl caliber defenses only 1 remains. Arizona lost Darnell Dockett off the DLine. He used to take on and beat double teams allowing Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington to flow sideline to sideline to the football. With his being gone for the season, teams will focus on DE Calais Campbell. Rendering him less effective.

Pro Bowl Corner Patrick Peterson and the secondary have to pick up the slack.

Pro Bowl Corner Patrick Peterson and the secondary have to pick up the slack.

Couple the loss of Dockett with the free agent defection of Dansby and season long suspension of Washington, the heart & soul of this unit is gone. How about the pending suspension for pass rush specialist John Abraham?? With 13 year veteran Larry Foote and Kevin Minter taking over for Dansby and Washinton this defense became two steps slower. Worse they’ll have to substitute more telegraphing their intentions.

Carson Palmer is the Andy Dalton of the NFC. One week he looks like a world beater then he’ll play uninspired and throw head scratching interceptions. He has to play his best to lift this team but he is a beta quarterback. His career has already been defined by this and it won’t happen. Ask the Raiders and ask Cincinnati.

In San Francisco…see the above about the Cardinals. Former Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year Navorro Bowman will start on the PUP list which keeps him off the field until week 7. OLB Aldon Smith (28 sacks last 2 years) faces a 9 game suspension along with DE Ray McDonald facing a 6 game suspension. Just days after Roger Goodell unveiled his new discipline protocol for domestic violence too?? He might get more than 6 games.

Harbaugh will be on the hot seat.

This will be Harbaugh’s last season in San Francisco

Last year the 49ers were 7th in pass defense while ranking 18th in sacks with 38. Well removing these 3 players represents 17 of those 38. How much easier will it be to concentrate blocking efforts on 15 year veteran Justin Smith and OLB Ahmad Brooks?? Did you know NT Glenn Dorsey was put on the IR/PUP list and won’t be back until week 7 also?? Remember the Super Bowl caliber defense San Francisco fielded over the last 3 seasons?? This isn’t it. Addition from subtraction only works in creative math…not in football

Now couple this with GM Trent Balke not willing to offer a contract extension to Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. In fact Balke and 49ers brass almost traded Harbaugh to the Cleveland Browns this summer. Traded?? Yes. There have been grumblings his message is getting old in San Francisco and now he’s being tied to the development of one Colin Kapernick. Honestly his game has not advanced in this last year and a half.

If this team comes out to the 2-4 record The Chancellor sees on the horizon, this science beaker will explode. Let’s say they are 3-3 or even 4-2. They will still drag a hodge podge defense into a week 7 road match-up with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Denver pasted the 49ers 34-0 in preseason to christen their new stadium. It could begin with a loss to the Cowboys in week 1.

One pass defense could have altered the legacies of both teams.

One pass defense could have altered the legacies of both teams.

With all that has been offered: How significant was this pass defense in the grand scheme of these teams?? Their legacies?? Where they’re going?? Seattle just jumped all over the Green Bay Packers last night 36-16 to begin the defense of their Super Bowl championship.

We’ve already previewed the Seahawks and they played as advertised. Russell Wilson is maturing as a QB and they could have Percy Harvin all season. If they’re champions already with a young team that is getting better, what will that mean for the rest of the league?? Homefield advantage…

We do know what team will face them in the NFC Championship but won’t reveal it until later. One hint… it won’t be a team from the NFC West.

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2014 Seattle Seahawks Preview – The Birth of a Dynasty?

As time wound down toward the end of Super Bowl XLVIII, there were several questions floating around Met Life Stadium. Was this one of the NFL’s greatest defenses?? Are we looking at the birth of a dynasty out in Seattle?? The first question is a resounding yes and the next question can’t be answered for a few years. Yet one point definitely remains, how can the Seahawks not be the odds on favorite to defend their crown in Super Bowl XLIX out in Arizona next February??

The Legion of Boom leads one of the best defenses in NFL history.

The Legion of Boom leads one of the best defenses in NFL history.

They just re-signed WR Sidney Rice to bolster the receiving corps along with a healthy Percy Harvin. The front office just signed Pro Bowl S Earl Thomas and CB Richard Sheman to long-term deals. It’s only a matter of time before they ink a deal with QB Russell Wilson.

Next is the feel good story that shapes the Seahawks different from other NFL franchises from a culture standpoint. The signing of 6th round pick OT Garrett Scott knowing he had a heart condition, allows him his full compensation of $550,000 even though they had to release him. Guarantee that struck a positive chord in every player across the league. If you thought free agents wanted to play for Seattle now, this move will resonate for years to come.

Quarterback: The Seahawks seem slated for a 7-10 year run with Russell Wilson at the helm. Yet make no mistake he still has to improve his ability to go through his progressions within the structure of the offense.

Russell Wilson keeps plays alive with his legs if they're not there initially.

Russell Wilson keeps plays alive with his legs if they’re not there initially.

Think back to the NFC Championship where Russell was really in a slump. Up until that 4th quarter touchdown bomb to Jermaine Kearse, we weren’t sure Wilson could make a play to end the ball game. Too many times if his first read wasn’t there, he’d take off. Coach Pete Carroll’s staff does a great job in calling play action roll-outs and half rolls where he has two reads. Sure this limits throws to half the field. However Wilson’s decision making of when to run or when to throw has been great. It was off kilter for those first two playoff games though.

For the season, Wilson completed 63.1% of his passes for 3,357 yards 26TDs to only 9 interceptions. Terrific numbers but his game has to evolve. When the Seahawks are in shotgun they normally run slants and go routes. Teams will adjust and start throwing zone blitzes in an attempt to force him to be hesitant and cut off running lanes with speed. The Seahawks also should watch for delayed blitzes designed for him to pull the ball down and scramble into an area where a defender will be headed.

If The Chancellor of Football has seen this on film, you better believe Jeff Fisher, Bruce Arrians, and Jim Harbaugh within the division have. Yet because of his decision making and ability to run, their playoff level at quarterback.

Offensive Backfield: For all the conversation, the NFL is a passing league and the running back has been devalued, here is exhibit A on quite the contrary.  Marshawn Lynch is the attitude and toughness of his team. From an X’s and O’s standpoint his downhill running style is why Russell Wilson is effective.  Teams have to honor that stretch run which makes the play fake so successful. When they don’t, Lynch bursts through for 4.2 yards per carry. Last year he did so while running for 1,257 yards and a career best 12 touchdowns.

Marshawn Lynch is the key to Seattle winning this game.

Lynch is the tone setter for the Seahawks.

Lynch runs with fury and reminds The Chancellor of Marion ‘The Barbarian”Barber yet he doesn’t seem likely to burn out in the next year or so. He sets the tone for the entire Seahawk football team. This year they may have to spell him in games to keep him fresh for the stretch run. If he’s able to power the team to another Super Bowl win, his resume becomes a Hall of Fame one. Still Super Bowl quality at running back.

Receiver: This is where the offense needs improvement the most. A rejuvenated Sidney Rice could help them stretch the field. Doug Baldwin is a gritty receiver who won’t wow you but slips to get open when Wilson scrambles and catches passes in traffic.

However the Seahawks have a serious jolt of speed with 2nd round selection Paul Richardson. If Harvin can stay healthy, this group could be lethal from multiple receiver (3 or more WR) sets on the field. First is where will Harvin line up?? In a slot position? Wing Back? Out of the backfield. While opponents concentrate on Percy, the Seahawks now have several receivers who can get deep.

The player who should be on the field more this year is Jermaine Kearse. Going into his 3rd year he should fully know the system. He just passes the eyeball test at there is more potential to his play than Baldwin. This year will also be a full year with Percy Harvin in the mix. This is still a receiver by committee group. If Sidney Rice can be the player he once was this could be a playoff caliber group. As of right now they’re average.

Offensive Line: The most misleading statistic afforded this team all year would be the 44 sacks allowed in 2013. How many times on rolls and scrambles were defenders able to track down Wilson to shove him out of bounds behind the line?? Those are recorded as sacks. Yet it’s a give and take scenario with Wilson making a rusher miss when protection breaks down.

Led by Pro Bowl Center Max Unger, this is a relatively young line with no starter past his fifth season. In pounding up the middle, Seattle in obvious power situations (3rd/4th & 2 or less) converted 60% of the time. For a straight ahead running team with 509 rushing attempts, to be tied for 5th in the league with just 6 negative rushing plays, says a lot about their blocking. When you can power your team to 2,188 yards, 14 TDs, and a 4.3 yard average, you’re playoff caliber up front.

Defensive Line: Now the best off-season move last year happened on day two of free agency when they plucked DE Cliff Avril, formerly of the Detroit Lions. His addition along with Michael Bennett allowed the team to terrorize opponents with a 3 DE alignment in Nickle and Dime sub packages. Bennett had 8 1/2 sacks while lined up inside Avril who had 8 as well. These two combined for 10 forced fumbles that usually broke the back of opponents.

Avril terrorized quarterbacks rushing them from the front side.

Avril terrorized quarterbacks rushing them from the front side.

Brandon Mebane is the stay at home Defensive Tackle that offsets this. So when teams run draws and screens, he’s nomally there with the linebackers to make a play. Seattle did lose DE Chris Clemons, but he had his least effective season with only 4 sacks. One replacement for the 3rd rusher is 3rd year player Bruce Irvin #51.  He was used more at linebacker in 2013 yet amassed 8 sacks as a rookie. Still a Super Bowl level group up front.

Linebackers: Did you know that Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith wasn’t a week 1 starter?? That’s right the man who sealed both the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl has to beat out KJ Wright #50 (80 tackles/4 passes defensed) for the OLB position on the weakside.

Yet Smith had a great postseason to boost his resume. In the regular season he started 8 games had 54 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 sack and 2 interceptions. He will definitely be on the field to accompany MLB Bobby Wagner (120 tackles/ 7 passes defensed/ 5 sacks). With another season like that he will replace either Bowman or Willis of San Fran in the Pro Bowl. Don’t forget Bruce Irvin also aids here. Defensive speed is the mantra to this group and it cleans up what makes it past the front four with aplomb. This is a playoff level group. They need to force a few more turnovers.

Once Seattle funnels your receivers to the middle, Cam is there to knock 'em  out.

Once Seattle funnels your receivers to the middle, Kam is there to knock ’em out.

Secondary: The reciprocal advantage to a pass rush is a secondary that won’t have to cover more than 5 seconds. When the secondary play extends beyond that, it allows the pass rush more time to get to the quarterback& you get the coverage sack.

Both happen in Seattle. Starting with the coverage of reigning Taylor Blitz Time Defensive Player of the Year in Richard Sherman. He led the NFL with 8 interceptions, returning them for 158 yards and that significant touchdown. He also was 7th on the team in tackles with 48, defensed 17 passes and recovered 2 fumbles.

By the time you add Pro Bowl FS Earl Thomas (105 tackles/ 5 ints/ 11 pass defensed/ 2 forced fumbles) & the thunderous shots by Pro Bowl SS Kam Chancellor (99 tackles / 3 ints/ 12 passes defensed/ 1 forced fumble) you have one of the best secondaries in history. That’s what a championship can elevate you to. Three of four in the secondary in the Pro Bowl. That’s beyond outstanding and now Sherman and Thomas are signed to long term deals.

Seattle did lose Nickel Back Walter Thurmond and regular starting CB Brandon Browner to free agency. However Byron Maxwell manned one of the corners after Browner’s suspension, and picked off 4 passes and defensed 11 others while starting 5 games. This is a Super Bowl caliber secondary if ever there was one.

Overall: This juggernaut has been the NFL’s best for the last two seasons and will be for a third. Although they are league champion you still can’t put a finger on where you would start to attack this team. One of history’s finest defenses and they come at you in waves with no true focal point. Right now the rest of the NFL is in a conundrum. Everyone is lining up in multiple receiver sets and playing in space. Seattle performs best here and Chancellor, Wright, and Wagner are there to lay pads on receivers.


Teisha, will it be confetti or raining skittles next February in Arizona??

They stay to the ground and minimize offensive mistakes. Since they take long drives and dominate time of possession, opponents feel rushed to score and get back into the game. This plays into Seattle’s hands again where they have taken the 2007 New York Giants’ blue print of 3 DE alignments, and tweaked it. Instead of 3 power rushers they have ends who are speed rushers. Couple that with the crowd noise and this is going to be a 14-2 or 15-1 team when you look at their schedule. A possible loss to St Louis on the road in week 7 and maybe one more in Arizona in week 15 look like the only hiccups. Carroll’s team should bludgeon their way to Super Bowl XLIX easily.

Next up: The Denver Broncos

The model in the pic where it’s raining skittles is the lovely Teisha Lyons. International Fashion Model and friend to TBT. Please click the link and like her page as well.

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Quiet On the Set

The Cleveland Browns are starting to demonstrate when subterfuge gives way to not knowing when to stop talking. General Manager Ray Farmer says that incumbent starter Brian Hoyer is ahead of Johnny Manziel by a wide margin. Really?? Then why were you looking for a quarterback in the first round again??

Manziel at his first rookie camp in Cleveland.

Manziel at his first rookie camp in Cleveland.

There is a difference between making a person earn their keep and when you can start to erode one’s confidence or irritate a player. Coming off like this in the press isn’t in your best interest. Be conservative with what you express outwardly. You’re Cleveland, not the Dallas Cowboys. Deflect the questions in a way that doesn’t come off as pompous or dismissive. Especially to one you want to develop into becoming the face of your franchise.

When grooming a quarterback to be a leader, you never tear him down publicly or even in front of his teammates. It has to happen behind closed doors. Manziel will have enough critics trying to break him down in AFC North defenses, than in the coming competition with Hoyer for the starting QB spot. You have to show more of a partnership approach so Manziel knows you’re in it with him. Otherwise he’ll develop as a quarterback but you could erode his stance to be viewed as a leader within the structure of the team.

So my message is simple… close ranks. Be the quiet Cleveland Browns and leave everyone guessing how Manziel is doing in the OTAs. Go so far as limiting how much press can even be around Manziel to minimize the circus on the inside. Make Roger Goodell fine you because of the secrecy kept in limiting the press access to your team. Then stop talking altogether to build anticipation while others speculate on what they will see when the 2014 Browns take the field in preseason.

While its important to know how to sell, it’s just as important to know when to sell. Be very quiet in the front office Cleveland. Go groom Manziel behind an iron curtain.

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The Truth About Michael Sam

Now the world is abuzz with the first openly gay player in Michael Sam drafted by the NFL. The ironic side to this is how this story had gone away in the month before the draft. After coming out, talk had died down once the combine and pro day at Missouri was over. Pundits waxed philosophical about what quarterback would be taken where in the following weeks. Once Johnny Manziel was drafted, there was no lead story until Sam’s selection in the 7th round and the kiss seen around the world.

The SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year, Michael Sam was drafted in the 7th round by the St Louis Rams.

The SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year, Michael Sam was drafted in the 7th round by the St Louis Rams.

Now we see draftees every year turn and kiss their girlfriends, fiances, and the loving peck on the cheek to dear old mom. It happens all the time, but nothing like this. Which tells you all you need to know about Sam. He understands he is carrying the torch for the gay community into the NFL and is going to be front and center about it.

Yet when you calculate your moves for maximum affect as he has, were these the best things to do for Michael Sam the football player?? As a 7th round draft pick, wouldn’t he have been better served to come in quietly with the focus on making the team?? He has put a bigger target on his back because of it and the scrutiny has just started.

Don’t forget he is coming into a Rams pass rush that was 3rd in sacks with 53 on the year. All Pro Defensive End Robert Quinn was 2nd in the league with 19 sacks followed by Chris Long’s 8.5. Four players recorded 5 or more sacks last season are still on the roster. This is going to be no easy task. He will have to play special teams and could make it if the Rams mimic the Nickel rush of Seattle’s with 3 speed rushing ends.

However we’re moving into supposed uncharted territory with Sam being the first openly gay active player. David Kopay, the late Jerry Smith of the Redskins, and the late Roy Simmons of the New York Giants were the first to come out after their careers ended. There have been rumors on players over the years but this will be different. The issue being put forth seems to be more about life style choice than it is about being able to play football.

The Miami Dolphins moved swift to fine CB Don Jones for tweeting disgust of the kiss between Sam and his partner. Then sent to sensitivity training also. Why isn’t he entitled to voice his own opinion?? He didn’t stop Sam from entering a locker room or causing a problem within a team structure. Everyone won’t be comfortable with the changes taking place with the inclusion of openly gay players. The media is pushing this too strongly and it’s forcing a backlash of either you support the cause, or ostracized for non support. That is wrong.

The gay agenda has been thrust on to everyone in a way that makes many of us Americans uncomfortable. Tolerance is different than acceptance. Sam needs to be accepted by his teammates and his lifestyle tolerated. Not everyone is going to like it and some based on religious grounds. The pendulum has swung too far when a person can’t voice their opinion without sanctions levied against them. What the Dolphins did was wrong. Ease up on the knee-jerk reactions.

As for Michael Sam, better click clack that chinstrap. You have to go against the Rams #1 draft pick in Tackle Greg Robinson. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to make the opening day roster and that task begins here.

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