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2013 New England Patriots Preview – Bill Belichick’s Greatest Challenge

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How tortured was Bill Belichick when he watched a less talented team in the Baltimore Ravens finally get past his New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game?? He would have had a different game plan had he made the Super Bowl and faced Colin Kaepernick a second time. It’s been his history. He’s in the midst of rebuilding the Patriots defense with many young defensive players maturing. Here at Taylor Blitz Times, our CEO had this team picked to win last year’s Super Bowl. With a solid quiet off-season, who could possibly get in the Patriot’s way?? Uhhh…. did we say quiet??

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

Bill Belichick has to have aged with this offseason. This will be a coaching challenge unlike any other in recent memory for his Patriots.

For once the Patriots have had a tumultuous off-season and we have to see how this affects the team. In the past there were surprising cuts like Lawyer Milloy’s release just before the 2003 season opener. Yet that’s just it. That move was right before the season, where preparing for a regular season opponent kept players from dealing with it too much. Now TE Aaron Hernandez, who may have to step up if Rob Gronkowski is slow to recover from surgery, has been arrested for first degree murder. What will happen to his two TE offense now?? No Wes Welker to turn to as Belichick did last year when injuries hit the tight end position.

Do we know if there is lingering fallout from Welker’s departure?? How could one who produced so much for this organization be so disregarded at the negotiating table?? Now Danny Amendola is the big ticket receiver and he comes in with marginal credentials. Teammates are definitely looking at that. By the way, Gronkowski is laying on the table after surgery on his forearm and now another on his back. When will he come back?? Will we have the old Gronk when he does come back??

With this latest situation with Hernandez, it throws the offense for a complete loop personnel and practice wise. When Ray Lewis went through his arrest and trial it started in January and was over with by May. All of this after Belichick diffused the media situation when he signed Tim Tebow, now questions arise about where will he play. The Patriots completely cut ties and released a disgraced Hernandez. Now does this slow the decision to trade backup QB Ryan Mallett as many Patriot insiders believe??

Keep in mind, this isn’t 2003 where the Patriot locker room was a veteran laden group with Tedi Bruschi, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, and an in-coming Rodney Harrison. This is a young group and this will have some affect on the team overall. Sure they have Tom Brady, but we’re talking leaders within the rank and file of the Patriots. A soon to be 36 year old quarterback isn’t the same as a 36 year old Ray Lewis inspiring the rank and file of the Ravens. Not raising the physicality of his football team. Once you think about it, maybe the Patriots can learn something from those Ravens that beat them last year. This could be Belichick’s greatest coaching challenge.

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

The ace up his sleeve is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Yes, but for how much longer??

Quarterback: Think back to the early part of this off-season. Tom Brady renegotiated his contract to offer the cap relief he believed would keep Wes Welker in the fold. At best they would be able to acquire a top notch receiver to go with the continuity they had at tight end. Now Hernandez is released, Welker is in Denver, Brandon Lloyd released, and Gronk still recovering. ESPN’s Numbers Never Lie put out a stat last week: Of the 346 receptions made by Patriots WR/TE, 91% were by players currently injured or no longer on the roster. Welcome to the summer of Tom Brady’s discontent.

To underscore the enormity of the situation, Brady is coming off back to back seasons of 5,235 yards with 39 touchdowns in 2011, and 4,827 yards and 34 touchdowns last year. The Patriots scored 513 points in 2011 then 557 last year. After a 3rd straight 500 point season, they equaled the 3 straight years of 500 point seasons of the St Louis Ram’s Greatest Show on Turf.

Now he has a short off-season to get to know a new bunch of receivers. With his place in history already secured, this could prove to be his greatest challenge as well. The key to getting to Brady has been to clog his underneath patterns and allow the rush to get to him. Once he’s hit in the legs he does look down at the rush. He’s going to need players making the right sight adjustments with him this year and there will be more breakdowns or playcalling will limit the offense. The Patriots are still Super Bowl caliber at quarterback but will his new personnel keep him from reaching that game itself??

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Can Stevan Ridley carry the full load in the Patriots backfield?

Offensive Backfield:  One position that is solid on this side of the ball is running back. Third year back Stevan Ridley proved to be an effective runner after a 293 attempts for 1,263 yards and 12 TD performance in 2012. The one thing he will have to do is pick up the receptions out of the backfield (40) that left with the release of Danny Woodhead. Yet let’s face facts, when Woodhead was in the game the Patriots were going to pass the football.

Going into 2013, most fans outside of the North east remember Ridley from that crushing hit taken in the AFC Championship Game from the Ravens Bernard Pollard. To that avail, Belichick traded for LeGarrette Blount formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the heavy carries.  At 6’0 247 lbs, Blount is a heavy hitter between the tackles. Once you throw in a Shane Vereen and you can see the Patriots will be solid at running back. Or in our eyes playoff quality.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Of the two rookie receivers, Boyce presents a dangerous element to the Patriots receiver arsenal.

Receivers: Now with Wes Welker running routes for Peyton Manning 2000 miles away, Aaron Hernandez getting used to life on cell block B, Brandon Lloyd released, and Rob Gronkowski recovering who is Brady to throw to?? Well “The Hoodie” has brought in a few receivers in the draft in Aaron Dobson (2nd round) and Josh Boyce (4th round) to accompany Amendola to camp. These guys absolutely have to get in camp and develop their timing with Brady. Everything from audibles to sight adjustments to non-verbal communication to keep from slowing this offense down.

Amendola will play the slot in 3 receiver sets and will be the “Z” in traditional formations. Dobson and his 6’3 frame is thought to be the “X” and has decent speed (4.4/40). Boyce has great speed (4.38 / 40) and looks to play in multiple receiver sets unless he unseats Dobson as a starter.  He presents the deep threat that hasn’t been in Foxboro since Randy Moss departure. This has been an obvious weakness in recent years as teams sat on all the underneath routes in every one of their postseason defeats. If Dobson is slow to develop, Donald Jones should figure prominently or Michael Jenkins formerly of the Falcons. These would be steps back however.

To team with Gronkowski at TE will be Michael Hoomanawanui, Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard or possibly a move here with Tim Tebow. Or at least the competition will include these men. When in reality, Hernandez’s skill set can’t be matched by any of these players. None have even been long time starters and are all mediocre journeymen. Expect a slow descent on the use of the 2 TE offense or a huge drop in production if they try to stay with it. Receiver has dropped to below average in Foxboro.

Offensive Line:  This group won the John Madden award for the best set of protectors a few seasons ago and wasn’t too far off that performance in 2012. Last year they were 6th in sacks allowed with 27 and tied for 11th in quarterback hits allowed with 67. However if the receivers don’t develop outside, these numbers will go up. Brady isn’t that mobile and at 35 years of age, this would be the wrong time to take more hits. These numbers were made better by the ability to 1…2…3 quick pass to Welker, or Hernandez that may no longer be there.

Where this group is tremendous is their run blocking from passing formations. They paved the way for 2,184 yards and 25 touchdowns. Most of which came from running out of the shotgun and multiple receiver sets. However in power rushing situations on 3rd/4th and 2 or less, this group only converted on 56% of the time to the strong side. That isn’t enough. Although they re-signed RT Sebastian Vollmer, there are rumblings he is in for a battle with Marcus Cannon in this year’s camp. This is still a playoff level group.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can't afford a sophomore slump.

A stronger defense will be needed with the offense scoring less this season. Chandler Jones can’t afford a sophomore slump.

Defensive Line: For the last several years, Belichick has been getting by on schemes and situational juggling of personnel.  Vince Wilfork (the [[_]]) has been a mainstay (49 tackles/3 sacks) but aside from Rob Ninkovich (8 sacks), only rookie Chandler Jones (45 tackles /6 sacks) distinguished himself. Is Ninkovich a linebacker or a defensive end?? In the nickle, Dont’a Hightower produced 4 sacks yet should be unseated by 7th round draft selection Michael Buchanan out of Illinois. A long armed athletic pass rusher that should give Belichick more to tinker with.

One of the best things about the Patriots is they keep their opponents from keying in on their personnel on the line. At the same time it works against them in terms of becoming a top shelf defense. No one has been able to work to become dominant as they still haven’t found the replacement for Richard Seymour. Without a second strong lineman, this group has been in the bottom half of the league as they were 25th in defense in 2012, and 31st the year before that. This group gets by on using linebackers for much of it’s production for sack totals and has trouble stopping the run. Below average is the best we can give this group.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don't know where he'll be coming from next in Belichick's schemes.

Ninkovich has been a the wild card on this defense. Teams don’t know where he’ll be coming from next in Belichick’s schemes.

Linebackers: How about the bounce back season of Jerod Mayo?? He made the Pro Bowl after registering 147 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 3 sacks, an interception, and 3 passes defensed. Not quite his 175 tackle masterpiece of a few years ago but he was more of a factor against the pass. Only 26, he’s going to be Belichick’s defensive anchor for many years to come. Brandon Spikes was right with him with another 4 forced fumbles to go with 91 tackles, 7 passes defensed and a sack. These two accounted for 10 total turnovers. That’s getting the job done. Now throw in Hightower’s rookie performance (60 tackles / 4 sacks) and this is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Secondary: A full offseason with a re-signed Aquib Talib and bringing in SS Adrian Wilson should greatly benefit this defense. Kyle Arrington needs a bounce back year where he didn’t intercept a pass. Devin McCourty had a solid year with 79 tackles, 5 interceptions, 13 passes defensed and 2 forced fumbles. Was it us, or did he look comfortable at Safety??  He gives them a Charles Woodson type ability to face 3 and 4 receiver sets if he has to lock onto a receiver. If he stays there now that Patrick Chung is healthy.

We’ve said for a few years this group is set to mature into something special. With the addition of Wilson and Talib, expect this to be one of the top secondaries in football. Going into his 13th season, Wilson keeps himself in tip top shape and has been a Pro Bowl player 4 of the last 5 seasons. Over the last 5 years he’s collected 9.5 sacks playing so close to the line of scrimmage. A frequent blitzer. He automatically makes this group better. A playoff caliber group.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Adrian Wilson is an attitude player that brings thunder to the Patriot secondary.

Overall: You have to realize we’re coming down to the end of Tom Brady’s career. At 35 years of age how much longer will he do this?? What type of toll will this season have on him if his receivers are slow to develop?? This will be a unique study as we make our way through this season. It could be the last with the Patriots being the clear cut best in the AFC East.

They will see trouble early on in weeks 3-6 when they host Tampa, go to Atlanta, to Cincinnati, then host the potent New Orleans Saints. A 3-3 record could be the situation  before ironing out issues and playing to a rocky 10-6 finish. Payback will be on the minds of  the Texans when they host New England in week 13. Back to back road trips to Miami and Baltimore in weeks 15 & 16, figure to be difficult as well. Last year being 100% healthy they lost 31-30 to the Ravens so expect a dogfight in that one. With their #1 offense, they barely escaped in Miami 23-16 and the Dolphins have improved their defense.

This is the case if Gronkowski comes back early and is 100% for the season. If he doesn’t this team could slip to 9-7 or 8-8. Don’t forget last year they had 3 games against division opponents where games were decided by 7 points or less. Bill Belichick may have to will this team down the stretch to another division title. It will not be the same as it’s been though. Depending on Brady’s frame of mind, the Patriots could be in a mode of complete transition in 2014.

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Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

The Soul Of The Game: Pat Fischer

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In the long history of the NFL there have been players who defined their positions because of their physicality. Men like Dick Butkus, Dick “Night Train” Lane, and Lawrence Taylor were freaks at their position. They were bigger than what other teams were geared to deal with normally. Yet there are those that stand out as hitters first although their size would suggest something different. Enter Pat Fischer.

Standing only 5’9, and 170 lbs (that can’t be right) Smith played in an era where the NFL was a running league. Unlike today’s game where he could play out in space chasing an X, Z, or slot receiver, Fischer had to come up and tackle in an era where everyone was emulating Green Bay’s power sweep. He had to take on pulling guards,  some fullbacks along with his coverage responsibilities. Yet he only missed 10 games in his first 16 years.

Pat Fisher played cornerback for 17 NFL seasons.

Pat Fisher played cornerback for 17 NFL seasons.

His physical play belied his diminutive size as he played as a pint sized intimidator. Lionel “Train” James loves to say “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” Never was this more true than of Pat Fisher. Even in the Super Bowl VII highlight, NFL Films had John Facenda narrate how much a nemesis he was against the run and the pass. Let’s face it, a cornerback his size now is primarily a special team guy who is platooned only against multiple receiver sets. They rarely tackle players other than small slot receivers. Take a look at how Fisher played…

In the NFL of the 1960’s there was a concentration of talent that stayed with the same teams and systems for many years. Fischer was caught in this vice where Hall of Fame cornerbacks Dick “Night Train” Lane, Herb Adderley, Jimmy Johnson, and Lem Barney were playing. He was an overlooked player for awhile and some of it could have been other players not leaving behind on-field animosity when voting for fellow players.

There has to be some truth to it or Fischer wouldn’t have had one of his 3 Pro Bowl seasons in 1969 when he had just 2 interceptions. Now his first, in 1964, where he picked off 10 returning them for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns couldn’t be ignored. That was 1 TD short of the all time record. Yet other years he was overshadowed by these other players.

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Pat Fischer played well into the 70’s and here he is going against Mel Gray in the mid ’70s.

One could also make the argument Fischer’s 1969 Pro Bowl and All Pro season came because of the higher visibility Vince Lombardi brought to the team in his only year coaching there.

Whatever the reason, Fischer played from 1961-1977 and retired having played in more games at cornerback in NFL history. If you think about that time frame, he came in 9 years before the AFL / NFL merger and played through the 12th Super Bowl. This is before the modern athlete could have arthroscopic surgery between seasons to prolong their careers. Does he belong in the Hall of Fame??

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Denver Broncos Release Willis McGahee

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Willis-McGaheeWillis McGahee was released by the Denver Broncos this morning. Now Denver Broncos have turned it over to Montee Ball and cut Willis and not Knowshon Moreno as we had predicted in our 2013 preview. McGahee is now a free agent now that he’s been released.

https://taylorblitztimes.com/2013/05/08/2013-denver-broncos-preview-one-more-moment-for-manning/

Tim Tebow A TE In New England??

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Tim Tebow... Newest New England Patriot.

Tim Tebow… Newest New England Patriot.

Ever since Tim Tebow’s junior season at Florida, our CEO has said over and over he would be a tight end in the NFL. The Broncos and Patriots tried him at quarterback and all indications are the Patriots will do the same. However we are talking the master of deception in Bill Belichick.

Isn’t it ironic that he is being signed when Hernandez is nicked up and Rob Gronkowski is due to have surgery on his arm (again) and then his back. Truth be told we may never see the “old Gronk” again through all these injuries. This is a team that brought in Kellen Winslow Jr last year to shore things up.

So now the speculating begins as to where Tebow will play. So let’s ask some hardline questions.

Do you really think Belichick will take this generation’s best quarterback in Tom Brady off the field to accomodate a 46% passer?? Even if the Patriots trade incumbent 2nd stringer Ryan Mallett, do you think Belichick will take practice time from Brady to run a “read option offense so Tebow can take his place??

If he’s going to be a third string QB and help on the scout offense to prepare his defense for mobile quarterbacks, couldn’t Belichick have done it cheaper?? Tebow’s league minimum for 4 years of service is $70K higher than a rookie.

Even though he worked out with the quarterbacks exclusively, Belichick nor anyone else poured cold water on Tebow playing another position. Don’t forget this is the coach who deployed Troy Brown as a cornerback when there was a shortage of corners. He also platooned LB Mike Vrabel as a TE, who scored in Super Bowls, and DT/DE Richard Seymour as a blocking back.

Is it really far fetched to think of Tim Tebow at another position?? Rob Gronkowski is 6’6 265lbs., Aaron Hernandez stands 6’2 250 lbs, and Tebow is of the same build type at 6’2 236 lbs. Don’t forget that Hernandez was his college teammate for 3 years at the University of Florida.

Remember Jim Jensen??

Remember Jim Jensen??

Just like the media when it tries to pry information out of Belichick, you know there is more there than meets the eye. The Chancellor sees the Patriots transforming Tebow into an H-Back- TE Hybrid like former Miami Dolphins. Remember him wearing #11 for the Dolphins?? Ironically, he stood 6’4 215 lbs.

2013 Denver Broncos Preview – One More Moment For Manning

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Mannung delivered in year one as the Broncos finished 13-3 in 2012.

Manning delivered in year one as the Broncos finished 13-3 in 2012.

Last year the Mile High City was buzzing with the prospect of Peyton Manning taking over the quarterbacking duties for a team that had been 8-8 in 2011. He didn’t disappoint as he led the Broncos to a second straight AFC West crown. This time with a 13-3 record accompanied with a first round bye. However a 38-35 overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens brought an abrupt end to a dream season.

The window for the Broncos to crash the Super Bowl with a 37 year old quarterback is a short one. This off-season they picked up ace slot receiver Wes Welker and made some key draft selections that should have the Broncos in the thick of things in the AFC West. Was it enough to allow Denver to maintain their status as the division’s best??

Quarterback: Now we did mention that Manning will be 37 years of age right? That is 259 in dog years and is an age that could prove difficult to make it through a complete NFL season. When you flash back to last year’s playoff loss to Baltimore, there were a few times his passes seemed to get away from him. Some sailed and some floated and the question had to be asked: Was Manning tired or was he struggling in the cold??

Although he was learning new receivers in 2012, it could be argued Manning had his best season. He completed 400 of 583 passes (68.3%) for 4,659 yards, 37 TDs with just 11 interceptions. During the early part of the season he would have to find his stride during the first quarter of games. Then his production would pick up for the latter 3 quarters. Keep in mind during their season ending 11 game winning streak, only 3 of the defenses faced finished in the top half of the league statistically.

Now the element of surprise is gone as teams have a complete season worth of film to study the Broncos offense. Last year the penchant for throwing only in the middle of the field was noticed by many teams. The saving grace is he has big receivers that are good space eaters. However as the season progresses he will wind up with a “sore” arm and defenses will crowd the intermediate pass routes under 20 yards. He won’t have as good a year statistically as it happened to Brett Favre in his second year with the Vikings & Joe Montana in his second year with the Chiefs.  He will still be playoff caliber at quarterback in what should be his last season.

Montee Ball fell to the Broncos late in the second round.

Montee Ball fell to the Broncos late in the second round.

Offensive Backfield:  Yes it’s true Willis McGahee (731 yds / 4.4 avg) was on  pace for 1,000 yard season before he fell to an injury, but that’s just it. At 32 years of age a running back is at the point of breaking down and needs to be replaced or spot duty at best. Enter draftee Montee Ball out of Wisconsin. The NCAA all time touchdown scorer (83) will have every chance to win the job outright. He’s played against tough Big Ten defenses and can take the pounding. Ball runs between the tackles and has decent speed.

The same can’t be said of Knowshon Moreno (525 yds / 3.8 avg) or Ronnie Hillman (327 yds /3.9 avg). Neither have shown the tackle breaking power consistent enough to sustain a starting assignment. In fact it was Moreno’s inability to sell his wares to the coaching staff that made Broncos’ brass sign McGahee in the first place in 2011. Moreno has missed 17 games in the last two years to injury and entering the final year of his contract. He will be cut this summer.

The Broncos need the drafting of Ball to pay off. If he comes in and either starts or splits time with McGahee this can be a playoff caliber backfield. However they will only run enough as a team to make them an average backfield.

Thomas and Decker are the best Bronco receiver tandem since Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey.

Thomas and Decker are the best Bronco receiver tandem since Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey.

Receivers: The equivalent of hitting the lottery happened to Demaryius Thomas (94 rec.1,434 yds 10 TDs) and Eric Decker (85 rec. 1,064 yds 13TDs) in 2012. They had career years with a quality passer in Manning with Thomas improving his receptions by 62 and Decker 41. Now they have perennial 100 reception season slot ace Wes Welker to add to the fold. All three will see their reception totals go down as there aren’t enough passes thrown to sustain those numbers.

Now they also add Georgia wideout Tavarres King with a 5th round pick. This team is really stacked before we get to TE Jacob Tamme. Who benefits from being a part of a talented receiving corps more than just his excellent physical gifts.

However defensive coordinators have to ask themselves; Which receiver do you gear your defense  to stop first?? Thomas and Decker with their size can go up and get the football over smaller corners. It’s de ja vu’ as they look like a bigger version of Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey, yet like the aforementioned Bronco pair neither are burners. They can get deep in situational scenarios but both of them are big targets in intermediate routes and will continue to produce. This is a playoff caliber group and Thomas should have made the Pro Bowl in 2012.

At 6'6 315lbs., Clady has become the prototypical LT and has made the Pro Bowl 3 times in the past five years. He has a long career ahead of him as the Bronco blind side protector.

At 6’6 315lbs., Clady has become the prototypical LT and has made the Pro Bowl 3 times in the past five years. He has a long career ahead of him as the Bronco blind side protector.

Offensive Line: To underscore the difference between a Hall of Fame quarterback and a couple of substitute teachers… Do you realize in 2012 the Denver Broncos attempted 159 more passes than in 2011 yet had their sack totals drop from 42 to 21?? As we alluded to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            last year, this offensive line was better than their sack totals showed. Now that they have a pro quarterback in Manning to get rid of the football whether completing the pass or throwing it away, this groups was second in sacks allowed (21) while allowing the fewest hits on the quarterback in the NFL with 46.

Again LT Ryan Clady from Boise St didn’t disappoint, as he garnered 1st team All Pro status and made his 3rd Pro Bowl in a brief 5 year career. He hasn’t missed a game in his career up to this point. One place where the line could use some improvement is in the running game. They had 46 negative rushing plays and on obvious power situations (3rd /4th & 2 or goal) they were only able to power for a first down 69% of the time up the middle, and 62% to the strong side. If they were to run the football more effectively they can rest Manning’s arm during the season’s stretch run. Until we see more out of the running game we have to give them a playoff caliber grade.

If Sylvester Williams shows up in Denver, the rest of the AFC West could be in trouble.

If Sylvester Williams shows up in Denver, the rest of the AFC West could be in trouble.

Defensive Line: Whatever you do, don’t bring up former DE Elvis Dumervil when it comes to the defensive line. The Broncos spent their first round draft pick this year on DT Sylvester Williams who should be in the rotation from day one. Then they drafted DE Quanterus Smith in the 5th round who is going to be given every chance to show that he’s recovered from a knee ligament injury last season. They have signed a DT free agent in Terrence Knightson along with re-signing DT Kevin Vickerson. Keep in mind this is a team that finished #2 in defense overall and #3 against the run.

Vickerson turned in a solid 2012 with 40 total tackles and 2 sacks. He and Justin Bannan (42 tackles /2 passes defensed) were there to keep offensive linemen off the middle linebacker. Adding Williams in the first round will add some explosion to disrupting opposing running games. Second year DE Derek Wolfe quietly contributed 6 sacks last year opposite Dumervil. Have they adequately replaced him?? No… not yet but this team is sitting at  Super Bowl quality against the run without him. Especially if Williams and Smith can come through as rookies.

The AFC's best linebacker will see more double teams unless someone can emerge to replace Elvis Dumervil.

The AFC’s best linebacker will see more double teams unless someone can emerge to replace Elvis Dumervil.

Linebackers: The conversation on who is the best Outside Linebacker in the AFC begins and ends with Von Miller. In 2012 his stat-line was NFL Defensive Player of the Year worthy with 68 tackles, 18 1/2 sacks, 6 forced fumbles and an interception. He’s only 24 years of age and has a lot of productive years left. With Dumervil gone look for teams to slide their protection to him until someone emerges on the other side. He did disappear in last year’s playoff loss to Baltimore and had to live with that all offseason. He will come into 2013 motivated to show he can play without Dumervil on the other side, but his production will go down.

One glaring hole is at Inside Linebacker where Joe Mays stands to inherit Keith Brooking’s spot. On many occasions he misdiagnosed plays and couldn’t disengage from blocks. Play from the line up front masked most of this. If he can’t unseat a 38 year old linebacker in Brooking, the Broncos have to look elsewhere.

Another season like last year and Wesley Woodyard could be on his way to the Pro Bowl as his speedy play from the weakside made up for the lack of production from Inside Linebacker. He led the Broncos with 114 tackles and had 5 1/2 sacks along with 3 interceptions. With this much production we’re not necessarily sure where free agent pickup Shawn Phillips fits in here. This is a playoff caliber group until they can improve more on the inside.

Secondary: This is the Achille’s Heel of this defense. No we’re not just talking about S Rahim Moore, who let Jacoby Jones get behind him with 1 minute left in last year’s playoff loss. With such a strong pass rush (52 sacks) they should have had more interceptions (12) as a secondary. Also exposed in last year’s playoff loss was grey beard Champ Bailey who could not stay with the Ravens Torrey Smith. Twitter and Facebook blew up with fans saying he needs to be moved to safety next year. To which Elway and Broncos brass assured that wouldn’t happen.

S Rahim Moore will be able to excorcise his demons when the Broncos host Jacoby Jones and the Super Bowl champion Ravens in week one.

S Rahim Moore will be able to excorcise his demons when the Broncos host Jacoby Jones and the Super Bowl champion Ravens in week one.

Time to face some facts, by the time we get to the latter stages of the 2013 season, Bailey will be a liability and need safety help. He will be 35 and the season will take it’s toll. The problem is this safety group is anemic against the pass. How does Rahim Moore and Mike Adams only snatch one interception between them on a 13-3 team that always played with a lead?? Behind one of the league’s best pass rushes that had 52 sacks? That’s pathetic. Now the rush may not be as strong without Dumervil and if they have to blitz to make up for it….uh oh.

The Broncos brought in Dominique Rogers -Cromartie to help solidify the corner and drafted  Kayvon Webster in the 3rd round. Many draft pundits considered Webster a reach which underscores how desperate they are to get their secondary together. Rogers-Cromartie’s play has been mixed in the last two seasons. This is a good tackling secondary but bad in coverage. This is a below average secondary.

Overall: Last year the Broncos feasted on patsies while running away with the division. At one point last year, they’re division brethren were mired in a 17 game losing streak late in the year. Fellow AFC West teams have geared themselves toward facing the Broncos offense with Peyton Manning. Expect other teams to be better prepared this year. In all actuality the Broncos let one get away and now will have to face a newcomer in Kansas City and Andy Reid within the division.

This year they finish the regular season with 3 of 5 on the road facing the Chiefs and Texans. That December 1st game with Kansas City will have AFC West title ramifications. Denver also lost to Houston at home last year and many feel the Texans are geared to make it to their first Super Bowl. That will also be a big game. Don’t forget they start by hosting the defending champion Ravens then travel to New York to face the former champion Giants. This is no easy schedule.

http://www.denverbroncos.com/news-and-blogs/article-1/2013-Denver-Broncos-Schedule/aff0d7d5-1726-48ab-8979-73e02b391f43

What about Peyton Manning going back to play the resurrected Colts with Andrew Luck in week 7 on Sunday night?? Remember they were a playoff team last year and the Broncos were 1-3 against playoff teams in 2012. The murderous stretch run in December is the reason they will finish 10-6 this year. A possible wildcard could be looming…at least that is where The Chancellor of Football’s crystal ball tells us for 2013.

Next up: Kansas City Chiefs

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Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

Taylor Blitz Times new logo!!

2013 Green Bay Packers Preview – Change Has Come To Lambeau

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The Packers stand-out linebacker just inked a five year deal worth $65 million.

The Packers stand-out linebacker just inked a five year deal worth $65 million.

The Green Bay Packers filed out of San Francisco’s Candlestick Park in stunned amazement last January. They had just been victimized by one of the most electrifying post season performances in NFL history. Colin Kaepernick’s record setting 181 yards rushing on 16 carries while throwing for another 263 yards for a combined 4 touchdowns suggested the Packers were indeed a bad defense.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense for the better part of 2 years masked the Packers defensive deficiencies. Yet they were exposed as needing speed in the secondary and  in need of power on the defensive side of the line. This off-season, gone is Charles Woodson, the game having robbed him of his once great speed through a series of injuries. Linebacker Eric Walden took his talents to Indianapolis. Factor these departures with the medical retirement of S Nick Collins, LB Frank Zombo signing with the Chiefs this offseason, then the run defense having never recovered from DT Cullen Jenkins’ departure and you have a defense in ruin.

This isn’t the team that won Super Bowl XLV in Dallas, February 2011. Now they have lost arguably their best receiver in Greg Jennings to the hated Vikings.  Ted Thompson and Mark Murphy have some work ahead of them in this year’s draft to restock a defense that had been deep. The question is: Will they keep their “Midas Touch” in mining good talent for the Packers coaching staff to mold into a good defense?? Or will this side of the ball let down Green Bay when they face the NFL’s elite?? Did you know the Packers were only 1-4 against playoff teams last year??

If Rodgers continues at this pace, his career statistics could be staggering.

If Rodgers continues at this pace, his career statistics could be staggering.

Quarterback: Suffice to say the Packers are more than sufficient behind center. Aaron Rodgers is in his prime and his last four years have been off the charts comparing him to any quarterback in football history. In contemporary times it is he and Drew Brees that have battled it out as to who is the best quarterback in the NFL. Taylor Blitz Times gives the nod to Rodgers. In the last four years he has attempted 429 less passes than Brees, yet is just behind Brees 142TDs to 156 TDs, while throwing a ton less interceptions with 32 to 66 for the man in the Bayou. By the numbers, if he threw another 429 passes he would be nearly 15 touchdowns ahead of Brees.

In 2012, the Packers won on his right arm as he conected on 371 of 552 attempts for 4,295 yards, 39 TDs and only 8 interceptions. A whopping 7.1  TD to interception ratio and 67.2% completion percentage. Rodgers is up for a big payday, an extension in the neighborhood of $120 million, but will this cripple the franchise by doing so?? https://taylorblitztimes.com/2013/03/30/huge-quarterback-salaries-feast-or-famine/

One thing that has crept up is Rodgers has a tendency to press in close games in the second half. It happened up in Seattle in the 14-12 loss   on Monday Night. We saw it in the loss to the Giants last year in the regular season, the 2011 playoff loss to the Giants and last year’s loss to the 49ers in the playoffs. He’ll miss on some throws that he has hit all year long, especially if he has been hit early in the game.

One game he didn’t was the 37-34 loss in the season finale to the Minnesota Vikings. Despite being sacked 5 times, he threw for 365 yards and 4 touchdowns which included a game tying touchdown to Jordy Nelson. Yet keep an eye out for this with a team with a deficient defense and an offense minus Greg Jennings. The boys in Lambeau are Super Bowl quality at quarterback no question.

Offensive Backfield: This is a spot on this team that is a mess right now. When Aaron Rodgers, who is not a running quarterback is second on the team in rushing with 259 yards, something is definitely wrong. Free agent Cedric Benson failed to pan out with only 248 yards, and a favorite during the Super Bowl stretch two years ago James Starks, rushed for only 255 yards. For us the jury is out on James Starks much as it is on Miles Austin in Dallas. When there are weapons around them… they can surprise. But when those defenses start focusing on them, they turn back into the moderate talents that they were scouted and regarded as. Could be time to cut ties here.

The Packers need to draft a quality back to take some of the pressure off Rodgers. Not a sixth round steal, they need a blue chip talent. Just as we warned before about putting all your money at the quarterback position and not spending to improve other positions, the Packers are at the crossroads. They haven’t gone after any runners in free agency this year. Hopefully they realize this and make some moves this weekend in New York at the draft. This group has a bad ranking until they draft someone better.

Randall Cobb brought a game breaking element to the Packers receiving corps as a rookie.

Randall Cobb brought a game breaking element to the Packers receiving corps in his second year.

Receivers: We mentioned several times already that Greg Jennings departed for the lakes of Minnesota. Now James Jones will have to step up to be “that guy”. Last year he led the Packers with 14 receiving touchdowns (64 rec. for 748 yards) which was due in large part to being the third receiver in four wide formations. Is he polished enough to be a solid X in Jennings place??

At tight end, Jermichael Finley is as solid as they come and should have his best season this year. Last year he hauled in 61 receptions for 667 yards and 2 TDs despite missing two games. The coverage he drew when the Packers were close to scoring is why Jones had so many touchdowns. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb round out this receiving corps. These are the big play men when it comes to the passing game.

Nelson was nicked by injuries and only started 10 games. He averaged 15.2 yards per catch (49 rec / 745 yds / 7 TDs) and hopes to have a year like 2011 when he reached the endzone 15 times. Cobb is the explosive new element to the Green Bay arsenal. He’s a threat to return a punt for a touchdown or do so after a short pass. Last year he made it on the field as a receiver and had the type of season (80 rec /954 yds/ 8 TDs) that Packers’ brass believed they could let Jennings go. This is a playoff caliber group rather than a Super Bowl group… We have to see if Jones can be as solid as Jennings was as a starter. If not they can go 4 wide and still be effective.

Offensive Line: This is a spot where the Packers could use some improvement big time. If you’re going to pump $120 million dollars to retain the best quarterback in the league, you better be able to protect him. Everyone forgets that Rodgers, during the Super Bowl year, was one concussion from sitting the rest of the year by mid-season. Last year the Packers were second to last with 51 sacks allowed and he was hit an additional 85 times. He will get hit and with no proven depth behind him, his loss would doom the season if he were injured.

Everyone saw the Monday night massacre in Seattle when Rodgers was sacked 8 times and chased all over Qwest Field. In 6 of the first 8 games of this season, they face top ten defenses when it came to quarterback sacks last year. Three of those they play on the road… at Cincinnati, at Baltimore with Elvis Dumervil now, and at Minnesota. They start the season in San Francisco and they can ill afford to get Rodgers hit in that game.Don’t be surprised if the Packers use a high draft pick on the offensive line.

Part of their problem is they practice their passing and can’t provide a push in the running department. The Packers were 22nd in the NFl with less than a 4 yard average. Along with the injuries seen at the running back position, a fleet of runners started for Green Bay last year and not on of them could average 4 yard per carry. The weakness of this offensive front has been covered up by Rodgers and the receiving corps connecting on quick passes. This is a below average group and have to get tougher up front.

Defensive Line: Where do we begin when it comes to this defensive front?? In all reality this group wasn’t one of the reasons the Packers rose to 11th overall in defense. They were still ranked 17th in defense against the run and allowed 4.5 yards per rush to rival ball carriers. This is a need position in the draft. No question…

No player has fallen from grace as far as DT BJ Raji. He was pushed around and bullied in that playoff loss to San Francisco for playing too high. He recorded 0 tackles and 0 quarterback pressures during that game. For the season he recorded 26 total tackles and 0 sacks. Terrible. Fellow inside Defensive Tackle Ryan Pickett also never recorded a sack during the 2012 season. Here is where the Packers should use a draft pick in the next four days when the draft commences on Thursday. How could they not??

We spoke of the Packers inability to stop the run since the departure from Ryan Pickett. This defensive line gets shoved right into the safeties faces. Evidence by Adrian Petersen’s nearly back to back 200 yard games against them. With no transactions during free agency we have to wait and see who they pick in the draft. If they could spend two picks here…it would be beneficial to the defense. right now this group is bad….not below average. They’re making far too many plays downfield after the ball carrier has gained 5 yards.

Desmond_Bishop

The Packers best all around linebacker spent 2012 on injured reserve.

Linebacker: Although Clay Matthews was inked to a long term deal, the best overall linebacker was Desmond Bishop that missed last season on injured reserve.. He led the team with 121 total tackles 5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in 2011.  He rejoins AJ Hawk who led the 2012 Packers with 120 total tackles and 3 sacks. However Hawk is somewhat of a liability against the pass without a  single pass defensed all year. He can get caught in space against speedy receivers and third down backs at times also.

One question is who will Kevin Greene develop to take Walden’s place at OLB opposite Matthews?? Will they draft a new player or possibly shift present ILB Brad Jones outside or promote Dezman Moses who had 4 sacks in spot duty last season. One position that is solidified is Matthews who is one of the league’s best pass rusher. His new five year deal will keep him in Green Bay until he’s 31. Last year he had 13 sacks and is the focal point of the pass rush. This group had 34 of the team’s 52 sacks. This is a playoff caliber group that is the best part of this defense.

Secondary: This group will have to develop a new leader with the loss of team captain and team favorite Charles Woodson. However they will be better at cornerback with the development of Casey Hayward (6ints) to go along with Sam Shields and Tramon Williams. Hayward led the team in interceptions and passes defensed with 21. Williams was 5th on the team with 61 total tackles and another 15 passes defensed.

New FS Morgan Burnett made plenty of open field tackles with 122 but needs to make a few more plays against the pass. He should improve in his second season as a starter. Right now there are more cornerbacks than safeties in-house and may. They would be better suited to move Burnett to Strong Safety and drafting a more natural ball hawk. Not trying to keep a fading Woodson in the lineup, this secondary could be even better and should be a playoff caliber group.

Casey Hayward, Morgan Burnett

Hayward’s development gives the Packers three quality young corners.

Overview: Now someone may read that and ask if The Chancellor felt they needed to improve on back  seven yet gave the a playoff caliber grade. The Packers do pressure opposing quarterbacks yet have to blitz to do it. This includes the secondary who contributed with 5.5 sacks themselves. Yet this feast or famine leaves players in coverage too long or provide a Colin Kapernick immense running lanes.

The Packers have been quiet this off-season keeping the team intact and trusting their ability to draft. Over the last few years Green Bay has been able to stock the roster with quality talent. Can they stay ahead of their NFC North counterparts?? This draft will tell the tale. However they have come down from their perch as an NFC heavyweight and looks like they will battle it out just to be a wild card in 2013. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game can cover only so many deficiencies.

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