Tag Archives: NFL Predictions

Super Bowl LX: Sam Darnold Has A Chance To Become An Elite Quarterback

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Sam Darnold is arriving at Super Bowl LX much like Jim Plunkett arrived at Super Bowl XV many moons ago. A 1st round draft pick who was a bust & the team that drafted him jettisoned him off like garbage. He had become a punchline with his “seeing ghosts” comment while being interviewed after a game in New York. Had stops at Carolina and San Fran before taking the Vikings to a 14-3 season last year and then dumped for unproven JJ McCarthy. The Vikings opting for #9 unstated told us they believed Darnold’s last 2 games in ’24 over the first 16.

Minnesota had their best record dating back to their 2009 NFC Championship Game run with Brett Favre at the helm. However all year long fans (and quietly the Vikings brass) waited for the shoe to drop & the jittery knock kneed Darnold of old would show up. He didn’t until a winner take all for the NFC Championship Game against Detroit where he had his worst game of the season. On a Sunday Night with the nation watching he went 18 of 41 for 166 yards in a 31-9 undressing in a game that didn’t appear that close.

It all fell apart with a 27-9 loss in the wildcard round to Los Angeles. Darnold was sacked 9 times and never had his team in the game. They were down 24-3 at the half and the Vikings had seen enough. In the offseason they gave him a low ball 1 year contract and Darnold left for Seattle. Had he really turned his career around? Was the ’24 season he had in Minnesota a mirage??

  • ’24 Vikings season: 361 of 545 – 4,319 yds 35TDs 12 ints. (7.92 yds per att.)
  • ’25 Seahawks season: 323 of 477 -4,048 yds 4,048 yds 25TDs 14ints. (8.48 yds per att.)

The truth of the matter is that gaudy 8.48 yards per attempt is 2nd in the league to Drake Maye. If you’re new here I wrote out on Dec 9th “The Lie Behind Quarterback Passer Rating & Several Useless Statistics” where I told you yards per attempt is the statistic that equates to team success not passer rating… well #1 and #2 in yards per attempt are facing off in LX or 1st vs 11th in passer rating … yet I digress

The truth of the matter we kept holding our breath waiting for Darnold to falter in the end like he did last year, check it… how he has dating back to the 2018 draft. Its not that he rode the coat tails of his team to make it to Santa Clara, he outgunned Matthew Stafford in a career defining NFC Championship Game. Throwing for 346 yards going 25 of 36 with 3TDs. When he came out and hit Rasheed Shehee with that 51 yard bomb 0n the first drive you knew he came to play. He was laughed out of Sofi Stadium losing to the Rams and ultimately his job and came back to excorcise several demons.

To see him stay the course, make the adjustments in his career when he could have slunked away as the draft bust he came to be known for, its impossible to not pull for him. He just stared down his bully in the NFC Championship Game and carved a Ram defense up that gave him nightmares in ’24. He is one game away from validating his 3rd pick in the NFL draft status with his performance in LX.

LOL Now he is in a Super Bowl where fellow draftees who have won NFL MVPs in Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen have to sit and watch and neither have made it this far. Neither has 1st pick in the draft Baker Mayfield. He wins this game and you have to call him an elite quarterback. Period. With new information we have to change our perspectives.

You’re one game away. San Darnold… Your mission, should you choose to accept it…

The Buffalo Bills Should Hire Bill Belichick

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With the ink drying in the record books for the end of the Buffalo Bills 2025 season and now the firing of Head Coach Sean McDermott, its time ot move forward and hire Bill Belichick. Keep in mind if you’re new here The Chancellor was calling for Sean McDermott’s dismissal the last few weeks here and in social circles since November.

Then my original question was “Has The Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Window Closed” believing it had with Coach McDermott at the helm. The disappointing part is GM Brandon Beane is still inhouse who built such a weak team around Josh Allen.

The epitaph on the McDermott regime is too many “Rudy try hard” types and not blue chip players especially on the defensive side of the ball. No momentum swinging playmakers with sacks, forced fumbles, or turnovers of any kind. Just a schematically sound defense that without playmakers has allowed 31.6 points per game in 7 of our 8 playoff losses. No one to stem the tide and crest momentum in the Bills direction.

Furthermore what is upsetting was the scapegoating then DC Leslie Frazier over the :13 playoff loss to Kansas City in the 36-33 divisional playoff loss in ’21 to KC. Override the DC if you believe something different should have been called. You’re both defensive coordinators…yet I digress.

Our plight has been one of not getting over the hump and winning a Super Bowl and now we’ve wasted most of Josh Allen’s career as he is now 30. The years are running out and the time is now for a quarterback that has taken more hits over the last 7 years than any in the NFL.

If this is all about bringing in culture, know how and intimate knowledge of your newest AFC East antagonist in the Patriots, go hire Bill Belichick before anyone knows what hit them. Yes the man who cultivated “The Patriot Way” that Coach Vrabel resurrected and is taking to the AFC Championship would do Buffalo some good. He knows the discipline and approach it takes to get to and win the Super Bowl that has not been in Orchard Park.

Do you realize he is 14 wins from becoming the NFL’s All Time winningest Coach?? How many times has he been mentioned as being a defensive genius for his morphing a 3-4 to just using Nickle in the ’90 NFC Championship Game?? His 2-5 defense he copied from the late Fritz Shurmer to win Super Bowl XXV?? Or the Ameoba defense also borrowed from Fritz Shurmer to confuse QBs with all standing personnel that he taught to & Brian Flores is killing it with in Minnesota?

Belichick struggled when Brady left because he couldn’t develop a QB like Mike Tomlin. The difference is Bill Belichick’s maintained his genius in crafting top defenses despite their offensive woes. Do you realize he had the 15th (2020), 4th (2021), 9th (2022), & 7th (2023) ranked defenses in the years after Tom?? This isn’t an out of touch Pete Carroll coming back a decade after leaving Seattle. Belichick fielded a top ten defense just 2 years ago. I’d go Tomlin but he wants to take a year off and just had the league’s 26th ranked defense.

The Bills window is now with a franchise quarterback who could use some short fields from a better defense. An offensive coordinator who can maximize an aging Josh Allen and prepare him for a legitimate Super Bowl run. What goes into each meeting, divisional dominance, and championship preparedness. Many people sent me messages and talked behind my back after proclaiming McDermott should be bounced, well he has and you might want to listen to The Chancellor this time as Belichick is key to a championship legacy. Its one of the reasons I used a Gatorade bath from the Giants ’86 playoff win to stretch your imagination. After all…I did mention what his overall legacy had grown to leading in to Super Bowl XLVI. Its high time to listen.

The Buffalo Bills mission…if you want to win one of these.

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Epilogue: So today I sit down to have lunch after having a series of Bills fans scream “No!” in hiring Bill Belichick and on First Things First Nick Wright offered this:

’25 AFC Divisonal Preview: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

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We’re locked in now where the rubber meets the road for NFL teams. All the promise and build up leads to this moment where plans are actualized on the field of battle and you’re rewarded with a berth in the conference championship game. In this instance, the Bills plight has morphed into Josh Allen’s career arc which needs a Super Bowl triumph to mark him as an all time great. Or do we get Sean Payton’s anointed resurrection from unfulfilled promise after his Super Bowl XLIV triumph has gathered dust on the shelf. That was nearly 16 years ago.

The question among most looking at this game is can Bo Nix make enough plays to fight off Josh Allen?? We’ll get back to this.

Bonito’s 14 sacks and Cooper with 8 have led one of the NFL’s greatest pass rushes.

The Denver defense leads the marquee having collected a team record 68 sacks, the NFL’s #2 ranking (4,730 yds allowed) and field the reigning NFLDPoY in Pat Surtain III. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and hold off this blood thirsty unit. Can they?? Well the Bills do come in with NFL rushing champion James Cook (1,621 yards/12TDs) and most forgot he ran for 121 against the Broncos in last year’s 31-7 Wildcard victory.

The matchup that will determine the game is OLB Nick Bonito vs LT Dion Dawkins. Bonito is 2nd in the NFL in ESPN’s pass rushing win rate while Buffalo’s line ranked 6th in pass blocking by PFF. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and play from a 2 TE alignment with Dalton Kincaid (39 rec. 571 yds 5tds) & Dawson Know (34 rec. 417 yds 4tds) to force Bonito to rush from further out as well as chip him when they do go out. The additional blocking aids Cook in rushing and contribute with key first down gaining receptions. The Bills will need to help Dawkins with the season on the line and have to establish Cook period.

Cook in last year’s wild card game against Denver.

One uneasy truth is the Broncos’ Bo Nix has struggled in the 2nd half of the season. He has 5 come from behind victories with the biggest the 33-32 chronicled here.

Yet when you look closely its occurred over the whole season. From that come from behind thriller over the Giants, Nix has gone 114 of 176 for 1,103 yds 9tds and 4 interceptions. His average per attempt is 6.2 yds and he has a passer rating of 89.6. Yet if you are new here I showed you how useless passer rating is and is easily manipulated with b.s. bubble screen completions.

Nix led the NFL with 612 attempts and only has thrown for 3,931 yards!?! Are you serious? In 1984 Dan Marino in 564 attempts threw for a then record 5,084 yds and 48 tds not the 25tds and 1,153 less yards. This isn’t effective as nix hasn’t passed the eyeball test over these last 5 weeks. In fact First Things First showed his position among NFL quarterbacks yesterday with this graphic:

These are not statistics of a QB that should win an AFC Divisional Playoff Game.

Can the Bills stop the run and force the game into Bo Nix’s hands? That is the question. If they can you do realize the Bills have the NFL’s 7th ranked defense only finishing 250 yards behind Denver (4,983 ot 4,730). While the Bills do not have a closer they will need someone to make 1 or 2 big plays to capture 1st half momentum.

In the end Josh Allen and the running attack needs to take control and they will. The Bills will be able to keep the Broncos pass rush at bay with sustained drives to wear them out and slow them with a short range passing attack. Not to pad stats but to move the chains and keep possession of the ball. Josh and the Bills will win this one in a slow steady approach winning 30-16 pulling away on a late touchdown.

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If The Bills Lose This Wildcard to Jacksonville HC Sean McDermott Will Be Fired

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You heard it here first! Yes Sean McDermott will be let go if they lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars in this weekend’s wildcard round.

The first thing that comes to mind is the Patriots have been resurrected after a 4 year slumber to snatch the AFC East from Buffalo. A proven NFL Coach in Mike Vrabel and brain trust from the Belichick regime have built a facsimile of the dyanasty whose ashes have just gone out will be around for a long time. The Bills brass will make a move just as the Ravens did realizing the current regime has underachieved in aiding their franchise quarterback with the horses to get to the Super Bowl.

They have gone as far as they could with Josh Allen and a couple guys from the local bar. The Bills need blue chip talent and can’t waste all of Allen’s career. A new offensive approach needs to be installed taking the ball out of Allen’s hands and reducing the number of hits he takes each year. I explained this fully back in November when The Chancellor offered “Has Buffalo’s Super Bowl Window Closed?” Sad to say as a Bills fan I concluded it had.

Josh your mission should you choose to accept it is to beat a rising Jaguars team that has won 7 straight or 8 of their last 9. The team from Duvall beat down the #1 seeded Denver Broncos just 3 weeks ago where we had embarrassing road losses in Miami & Atlanta. One team fired its coach (Falcons – Raheem Morris) and the Dolphins should have fired theirs.

McDermott guys are “try hard Rudy’s” in a sea of blue chip NFL talent. When Josh Hines-Allen & Travon Walker come off the corner this weekend. I pray we have worked on half roll plays and work in some runs with Allen as its imperative to get off to a big 1st half lead…. If we don’t there will be a coaching change as the Bills will realize we have wasted a significant prime of Josh Allen’s career.

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The Truth About Jordan Love

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Now I don’t want to go off on a ran here…but its time to talk about Jordan Love’s performance thus far. He earned the large contract and was on a trajectory to become one of the faces of the NFL but something happened. For clarity sake I am fond of the history of the Packers organization and championed the positions of black quarterbacks (Shameful Impatience w/ Black QB series) through many articles.

Its been a heavy burden filling Aaron Rodgers shoes and leading this football team. He’s done it admirably and when there were questions if he was the right quarterback he silenced them with his performance in the 2023 playoffs. After squeaking into the playoffs at 9-8 they were a heavy underdog and Love cooly led the Packers to a 20-0 start in Dallas on the way to a 48-21 upset. He went an efficient 16 of 21 for 272 yds throwing 3 TDs and never showed the nerves that most QBs face in their first playoff game.

Then the following week again on the road against the favored 2nd seeded 12-5 49ers, Love outplayed Brock Purdy. Going into the 4th quarter the Packers held a 24-14 lead before a defensive collapse and a costly 4th quarter interception. San Francisco didn’t take their 1st lead until McCaffrey’s 6yd run with just 1:07 to go in the game. Love had the Pakcers on the brink of the NFC Championship Game with a 21 for 34 performance 194 yds 2 TDs and 2 Ints, yet everyone left that game feeling Love showed growth solidifying his status as a franchise quarterback. Every pundit lauded his performance and couldn’t wait to see what was to come.

He was sailing along smoothly the following season until he came up against the new bullies of the block in Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions. These were the two surprising teams from  the previous season showing promise and the 11-1 Lions were hosting Love’s 9-3 Packers with the winner having inside track to homefield throughout the playoffs. Love was never in the game and came out slowly in a 34-31 loss. Hey were the Lions just that good or…. hmmm? Then two weeks later a repeat performance against the red hot 13-2 Vikings, falling behind 27-10, ultimately losing 27-25.

They had gone from playing for a chance at homefield advantage and the best in the NFC to 3rd place in just the NFC North. Love and the offense were anemic at the start of each game and then scrambled back to make the score look respectable. When the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles vanquished them 22-10 in the playoffs we were left with “Which is the real Jordan Love?” The Daniel who took his slingshot after 2 Goliaths in the ’23 playoffs or the disinterested lackluster QB we saw in 3 gigantic games with most of America watching when all was on the line?? All 3 happened in primetime and we needed to remove the stink that those 3 games gave us.

He now has the big contract and clearly the most important player on the Packers with a 9-6-1 record and losers of 3 straight.and barely hanging on in the 7th seed. Seriously?? Micah Parsons knee injury late in the year didn’t help but hold on with the excuses… Love went 18 of 25 for 183 yards in an inexplicable 13-10 loss to the 4-12 Browns. The opposing QB Joe Flacco, was traded just weeks later. Love could only muster 13 points in a loss to the Carolina Panthers in Lambeau & only 7 American points in a loss to the Eagles in back to back weeks. Each of the teams he was facing have had terrible offensive seasons where Bryce Young may not be back in Carolina and turmoil is abound in Philadelphia over Jalen Hurts play.

Love and the Packers were 3-5 against winning teams in 2024 & 2-4 in 2025. There could be more but 4 teams they faced this year are currently 8-8 but this has been a poor follow-up to the ’23 playoff run. This is a team that acquired a bellcow runner in Josh Jacobs (1,329 yds in ’24) they haven’t had since Ahman Green. Made a trade for impact defensive terrorist Micah Parsons to bolster the defense and his receivers? Well Josh Allen would light the NFL up if he had Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvian (what kind of name is that?) Wicks, and Jayden Reed. Ask any Bills fan to which I am one if we would trade receiving staffs even up with the Packers… in a New York minute!!

All these moves were made to aid Love in fulfilling the promise from 2 seasons ago and we just haven’t seen any progress. Every time he has faced the teams with winning records he has come out with the yips. Only scoring 10 in a home loss to the 8-8 Panther team who were 4-5 at the time with only 1 win on the road (Jets)? They breathed playoff life into a team when they should have buried them. Same with only scoring 10 in a loss to the 4-12 Browns constitutes a bigger pattern. Love and the Packers keep playing with their food when it comes to weak teams also. After two years of this underperfomance and watching Malik Willis play well in relief it may be time to ask “Is Jordan Love the franchise quarterback we thought he was after 2023?”

I’m leaning toward no for an answer and he has to prove it or watch over his shoulder for a replacement in 2026. He may need a deep playoff run to stem the tide but this is a very large sample size to analyze & he may have become Pope Dak Prescott II. I don’t see him coming out of this as he hans’t exhibited a killer instinct to put his opponents away. That is something that can’t be coached…it has to be already in a player especially a franchise quarterback.

At the beginning of the season I was of the ilk this is the season Jordan Love would stake his claim and take the Packers to the NFC Championship. I was high on Love to rebound but as the season wore on I knew. This was why I predicted they would lose 2 weeks ago to Chicago whose overtaken them after predicting they would finish ahead of the Bears in my NFC North Preview. Caleb Williams has grown to the place Jordan Love did not. I have seen enough!

Should they trade Jordan Love and go with Malik Willis next year?? *shrugs shoulders*

What do you think?

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2025 NFL Week 16 Packers at Bears Preview

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At the beginning of the season The Chancellor had the Packers winning the NFC North and meeting Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. The Bears were to finish a few games back and win a wild card berth. Well here we are with those 2 teams primed with the divisions best records in a mondo game in Soldier Field on a Saturday Night.

Byard has been an All Pro level force with 74 tackles and 6 picks in ’25.

The Bears are 7-1 in their last 8 games which includes a 28-21 loss to Green Bay 2 weeks ago. In 3 of those games they held their opponents to 20 points or less. They’re ranked 23rd defensively however they have only allowed 291.5 yards per game in their last 5. That is the same rate as Green Bay’s 5th ranked defense with 294.5 yards per game for the season with one caveat…. the Packers just lost All Pro Micah Parsons who took 12.5 sacks and 25 quarterback hits with him.

The loss of Parsons impacts this game tremendously and he won’t be there to harrass QB Caleb Williams who has a chance to completely come of age in this game. This is the biggest game of his career and a stepping stone to fulfilling his overal #1 status. In last week’s game on the road they allowed Bo Nix a career best 4TD passes.

Caleb (266 of 459 for 3,150 yds 21TDs with 6 ints) has been coming on and showing promise. Even in the game 2 weeks ago he brought his team back from a 14-3 deficit to a 21-21 tie late in Lambeau Field. He is growing as a QB where Jordan Love has left us frustrated. Just when he seems ready to take that leap he plays lackluster in an inexplicable loss (13-10 to Eagles) and a16-13 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

This team should be wrapping up homefield througout the NFC playoffs and find themselves embroiled in a fight with a Bears team all accounts thought of as less of a ball club when the season began.

Love’s stats are similar to Caleb’s (283 of 426 3,304 yds 23TDs and 6 picks) but he was where Williams was as 2023 was concluding. He hasn’t taken that killer leap we have been waiting for since and just showed flashes. Williams flashes are a sign he is “getting it” and just became the NFL’s best ever QB when it comes to turnovers within their 1st 1,000 passes thrown. Ironically the last pass he threw when these two teams were playing was his underthrown interception to kill the Bears chances 28-21.

Well we know Williams has been haunted with that last pass he had intercepted at Lambeau but today he will lean on the running attack averaging 160 on the ground in their last 5 games. Their high water mark was a 281 yard performance in their 24-15 upset of the World Champion Eagles on the road just 2 weeks ago. Now they’re at home…. *sucks teeth*

Head Coach Ben Johnson has his Windy City version of Gibbs & Montgomery in D’Andre Switf (935 yds / 7TDs) & Kyle Monangai (681 yds /5TDs) and the only way the Packers win this is Josh Jacobs (890 yds /13TDs) coming out first and dominating Chicago early forcing the game into Williams hands solely.

That just seems unlikely and in this game with Micah Parsons at home watching, the Bears will win this 30-24. The team that dominates the clock will win and Chicago’s 2 headed monster will be able to go with the hot hand if one back shows more spark. The Chicago franchise is looking to establish a new era that Jordan Love and the Packers should have established last year but played around and didn’t.

Caleb will reverse the curse that has sat over this franchise since losing the 2010 NFC Championship Game to Green Bay.

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