Tag Archives: NFL Predictions

2011 NFC South Previews & Predictions

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First things first, we’d like to welcome you to the best division in all of pro football. Although the NFL’s marquee rivalries exist between it’s glamour teams, no division is as competitive from week to week like the NFC South. Do you realize that since the division’s inception in 2002, there has been NO repeat champion in it’s history??  It also has the distinction of being the only division in the NFL, where each team has played for the conference championship and a right to go to the Super Bowl in that same time. Not even the NFC East can match that because neither Dallas or Washington have sniffed the NFC Championship in the last decade. This division is defined by physical, spirited play punctuated by last year’s bloodbath between the upcoming Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons in week 13. The hardest hitting game of the NFL season came down to a game sealing interception by Falcon CB Brent Grimes with under a minute to go. As a going away present, Tampa quarterback Josh Freeman was given an unnecessary roughness, personal foul for hitting him several yards out of bounds. Man, you have to love football season!!

As we make our way toward the 2011 season, there are several questions about the teams in this division. Are the New Orleans Saints poised to reclaim the divison from the Falcons?? Are the Buccaneers and the aforementioned Josh Freeman for real after a 10-6 season?? Have the Buccaneers improved enough to unseat them both and become the 10th different division winner in so many years?? How will the Carolina Panthers progress under new coach Ron Rivera and develop Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton?? What will become of last year’s #1 draft pick, quarterback Jimmy Clausen??

To answer a few of these questions, you’ll have to read deeper into this article. As for our picks

2011 NFC SOUTH PREDICTION

Atlanta Falcons 12-4 *

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 +

New Orleans Saints 9-7

Carolina Panthers 3-13

We look to the Atlanta Falcons to end the revolving door of NFC South Division Champions. Head Coach Mike Smith has them playing mistake proof football behind a power rushing attack that is augmented by the play action passing of Matt Ryan. With the NFL’s leading receiver (Roddy White) in the fold, it will be interesting to see how potent the offense can become with 1st round draft pick Julio Jones from Alabama. The Falcons overspent for Jones’ services but it seems as though they figure to score with Green Bay if they see them again in the playoffs. They still need a player to emerge to rush the passer along with John Abraham. It was this glaring weakness that was exposed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the 48-21 loss to the eventual world champions. Last year’s big splash was CB Dunta Robinson. He needs to play up to his potential and not be overshadowed by his Pro Bowl counterpart in Brent Grimes. That embarrassing playoff loss should keep this team motivated and working hard to improve.

It’s time for Matt Ryan to win his first playoff game.  He has amassed a regular season record of 33-13 and has led his team to 2 division championships. Going into his fourth season should be able to handle the entire playbook as well.  He still has workhorse running back Michael Turner and now has 3rd down back Jacquizz Rodgers from Oregon State to add to the explosive Jones. The Falcons are primed for a Super Bowl run and on the Georgia Dome turf this team will  be hard to catch. Right now they still have the lone weakness of rushing the passer that hasn’t been addressed.

The Buccaneers young signal caller, Josh Freeman.

Now buoyed by the fact that they learned how to win last season will propel the Buccaneers into the playoffs in 2011. Coach Raheem Morris has to get some early pressure from draft picks Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers, and Mason Foster to help cover secondary deficiencies until CB Aquib Talib gets back from suspension. Where did they learn how to win? Well last year going into week 15 they hadn’t won a game against a team with a winning record. They had lost several close games to teams with winning records but when it counted in the last two weeks, they beat the playoff bound Seahawks 38-15. Then in the last game of the season they outhit and beat the defending champion Saints 23-13 in the Super Dome. In that game the Saints were trying to catch the Atlanta Falcons to steal the NFC South but called off the dogs when they realized the Bucs weren’t going away.

What has been lost in this offseason is how good this team was playing when the season’s final seconds ticked away. Did you know that Josh Freeman completed 61.4 % of his passes and finished the season with 25TDs thrown to only 6 interceptions?? Or how about Freeman was second only to Tom Brady with an interception percentage of only 1.3% with 474 passing attempts?? Right, we know you didn’t. The NFL pundits are too busy talking about Manning and Brees than to actually see what is happening on a week to week basis right in front of them. Consider that he is only going into his 3rd season. Yikes!! Now add to that battering rams RB LaGarrette Blount, then FB Earnest Graham, and you can see this team overpowering the weak tackling New Orleans Saints as they did last January.  They have to approve against the run and they addressed their defensive front 7 with 3 picks and several free agents. On the rise and will make the playoffs this year. Possibly the promised land next year.

Descending back to the pack are the New Orleans Saints. The light defense that couldn’t tackle Marshawn Lynch in last year’s playoffs is still in tact. Why they are returning to the pack?? Try the fact that in their Super Bowl season when they had Darren Sharper, they led the NFL with 26 interceptions. Those numbers fell to less than 10 for the 2010 season and the last time we saw the Saints secondary?? Matt Hasselbeck threw for over 400 yards, 4 touchdowns and had a perfect passer rating in the Seahawks WildCard 41-36 win. They added DE Cameron Jordan in the draft to help the pass rush but the team returns with 10 of 11 defensive starters who underwhelmed last year. So the last two times we saw this defense was when division rival Tampa took their lunch money and Matt Hasselbeck throwing a 7 on 7 skeleton drill. Listen, Drew Brees can pass for 6,000 yards and wouldn’t be able to right this ship.

As a passer he has been on a roll ever since arriving in New Orleans. Brees has won a Super Bowl, passed for over 5,000 yards in a season and has been regarded as one of the best in football.  All of this after the Chargers left him unsigned with a shoulder that needed surgery, it seemed his career was over. So here we are several seasons later in the midst of Brees’ renaissance, will he take the ball out of his hands and hand it off to a Mark Ingram as often as he should?? A question no one is really asking. If Ingram provides a more stout running game, it will rest the Saints defense, but will it knock the Saints passing game out of it’s rhythm?? Last year, the Saints were knocked out of a good passing rhythm by their own defense’s inability to get off the field. It’s one of the reasons Brees tossed 22 interceptions last year. Interesting questions that we think it will take New Orleans beyond this year to figure out. So no playoffs trip this year.

In Cam they trust. Coach Rivera has decided to go with Newton in their final pre season game and we know what that means: He’s going to start the season barring a subpar performance. Somehow this could be the vanguard of introducing the spread offense as a pro football attack. With power backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart still in the fold, we know the Panthers will be running the football. Against some 8 man fronts this season, Newton or Clausen should have 1 on 1 opportunities to showcase their arms. If Clausen gets in the game he needs to hit on those since he’s auditioning for his next NFL stop with each throw. Its a mistake if the Panthers start Newton right away. They should let him get into the season first before inserting him into the lineup, somewhere around week 5. Right now the Panthers have a great young group of defensive linemen and building a solid defense around MLB Jonathon Beason. They just need to trade QB Jimmy Clausen, WR Steve Smith for draft considerations and bring in some weapons on the outside. Right now, they’re in last place in the NFC South.

Next up, the NFC North!!

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2011 NFC West Previews & Predictions

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In the NFL, all divisions are not created equally. The NFC West has been in flux for the last decade without a clear cut champion. Even the 2008 Arizona Cardinals run to Super Bowl XLIII was a season where they were 9-7, and lost a late season game 47-7 to Matt Cassel and the Patriots. Last year’s 7-9 division champion Seahawks was more of a product of a young St. Louis Rams team that came up short in the end than brilliant Seattle play.  As we march into 2011, it looks like the Rams will rise from the ashes in this division.

2011 NFC WEST PREDICTION

St Louis Rams        9-7  *

Seattle Seahawks  6-10

Arizona Cardinals 5-11

San Fran 49ers       3-13

St Louis Rams have the best young quarterback in Sam Bradford and another solid season with Stephen Jackson at running back.  Last year, Coach Spagnuolo’s team had to learn how to win and did so with a 5 game improvement in the win total. If they can get a significant contribution from WR Austin Pettis, drafted from Boise St to help Bradford further develop. Folks seem to forget that Sam Bradford is only a few years removed from a Heisman trophy season that saw him throw for nearly 50 TDs as a junior. This is no fluke. Now that Chris Long is coming on (last season 8.5 sacks) and James Laurinitis leadership at linebacker, this team is on the rise and should rule the NFC West for the next few years. They have a murderous early schedule but starting with week 9, should run the table the rest of the way. The only notable game to show that they have grown up is the week 16 matchup in Pittsburgh on Christmas Eve. Just don’t be thrown off when they start out slow.

The Seahawks will look like a totally retooled team in the early part of this season and will revert  back to the enigmatic bunch we saw through much of last season. Only this time it’s going to be growing pains through breaking in Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback once sorry Tavarris Jackson underwhelms again. The second time is a charm, he helped collapse Minnesota when they kept him and let Sage Rosenfels go. So once Favre got injured…they crash landed with Jackson at the controls and that was a team with the same offensive co-ordinator and new wideout Sidney Rice there as well.  Same story, different channel.

They also have to find a leader to take over for Lofa Tatupu who was released. Aaron Curry has to move into that role and now needs to develop into the elite linebacker his draft status calls for. Will Marshawn Lynch blossom into the running back that emerged with the great run in last year’s playoff or will he revert back to the on again, off again runner he was in Buffalo?? This team will win a few games early but will descend to search mode as they need to find out who they are. They still don’t have an identity and the second half of the season will be a struggle for Coach Carroll and his team.

As for the Arizona Cardinals, congratulations on finding a quarterback in Kevin Kolb but you spent too much for him. Should have kept Rodgers-Cromartie and had the division’s best cornerback tandem with he and Patrick Peterson. Yes go ahead and start the rookie and let him take his lumps.  The Cardinals are still anemic rushing the football and teams can gang up on Larry Fitzgerald now that Steve Breaston is gone to Kansas City. Early Doucet and Andre Roberts have to have early success at receiver on the other side or this team will have a long season on offense. Kolb will be out to prove that he is a top flight quarterback and he should have kept his job in Philadelphia. Truth is, he played like he was given the job and not one that he earned. Both Mike Vick and Kafka from Northwestern had better statistics in last year’s pre-season.

Yet Kolb will solidify this franchise’s quarterback situation for the first time since Neil Lomax. Yes Kurt Warner was outstanding for 2 years, we mean a quarterback to build a franchise around for a 5-7 year run. He needs one of his other receivers to emerge to begin the process. On defense this team is in a little bit of flux so they need to break out on offense to win games. They just don’t have enough horses to do that at this point.

San Francisco needs to blow the team up and start from scratch. You have Colin Kaepernick as a quarterback, who isn’t ready, and busts Alex Smith and Troy Smith to man the position until he is. The first item up for bids is to trade Frank Gore for several draft picks to an AFC team. The Browns, Bengals, Patriots, Bills, Colts, all need a marquee running back. Several of those teams want to get over the hump and think they are a running back away, capitalize on it and get some draft picks.  Especially a team you can expect to underwhelm and get even higher draft picks from the resultant record. With an anemic offense and an underachieving receiving corp in Michael Crabtree and Ted Ginn Jr, expect 8 man fronts to limit Gore’s effectiveness anyway. He wants to be traded and won’t run hard once the team dips out of contention, so alleviate that problem.

Right now go with Vernon Davis as your leader on offense and Patrick Willis on defense. Treat the 2011 campaign as a prolonged preseason and see who will fit Coach Harbaugh’s future roster. Don’t be surprised if former Stanford Cardinal Toby Gerhart doesn’t find his way to the bay to join next year’s draft pick Andrew Luck (Stanford) if the 49ers finish 3-13 as we think they will. The rebirth of the 49ers could just be in it’s beginning phases and this is a glimpse into next year for 49er fans to get excited about.

Next up: NFC South

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Terrell Davis Belongs In The Hall of Fame

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Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII

When you think back to the Denver Broncos of the late 90s, Terrell Davis is usually the first player you think of.  He brought an NFC toughness to the AFC in terms of running the football.

You have to remember that the NFC was in the midst of a 13 game winning streak before the Broncos broke through with their win in Super Bowl XXXII.  The AFC had been filled with primarily scat backs and finesse runners when Davis was drafted in the 6th round of the 1995 draft.  He ran with power between the tackles and had the speed to pull away once he made his upfield cut.

For four years he was one of the best runners in football. An all time great until a knee injury in ’99 derailed a promising career.  Just like Gale Sayers he was a whirlwind of production before that injury so why should he be denied Hall of Fame consideration??

In 1995, Davis became the lowest draft pick ever to rush for 1,000 yards when he bolted for 1,117 on a Denver team that was retooling itself. Coach Shanahan had just come over from the World Champion 49ers and combined a single back set and merged it with a version of the “west coast” offense. Davis was an affective runner in that system but it was once the team moved to an offset I formation with the addition of FB Howard Griffith in ’96 did Davis’ production reach the stratosphere.

It was the ’96 season that Davis wrested the mantle of best power back from a fading Emmitt Smith with a 1,538 yard, 13TD rushing performance. If we add in his receiving totals he had 1848 all purpose yards and 15 total touchdowns. Yet despite the 13-3 record, his ’96 Broncos were upset in the divisional round of the playoffs by Jacksonville 30-27.

Davis in the ’97 AFC Divisional Playoff win over KC 13-10

Davis’ numbers would have been higher for the ’96 season yet Shanahan rested he and most of the starters after jumping out to an 11-1 start.  The team rusted before the playoffs and Davis lost 3 second halves where he could have piled up more yards and should have been an 1,800 yard rusher.

The ’97 season saw the Broncos move to a 12-4 record yet were cast in the roll of wildcard by virtue of Kansas City’s 13-3 record. Again Davis was the driving force running for 1,750 yards and 15TDs leading the AFC in rushing and the NFL in touchdowns. He then ran for over 100 yards against the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Steelers enroute to Super Bowl XXXII. Now their physical running game would be put to the test against the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers and their mammoth defensive line.

In one of the best performances in Super Bowl history, Davis ran for 157 yards and a Super Bowl record 3 touchdowns propelling the Broncos to a 31-24  upset win.  Davis had a superb performance and may have broken Tim Smith’s record of 204 yards had he not missed the 2nd quarter with a migraine headache. In the game he punished the Green Bay defense with physical, tackle breaking runs that broke the former world champions down. He was MVP of the NFL’s signature game in his own hometown what more could be on the horizon??

One year after the sporting press celebrated Barry Sanders rushing for 2,053 yards in ’97, there was speculation that Terrell Davis could repeat that feat in 1998. Terrell Davis and his Broncos ran out to a 13-0 record and threatened the ’72 Dolphins unbeaten streak but an upset by the Giants then the Dolphins relegated the AFC West champions to a 14-2 record.  Davis ran for over 170 yards in the final game of the season to finish with 2,008 yards, 23 TDs and he was voted NFL Most Valuable Player in the process.

His total was even more impressive than Eric Dickerson’s, Barry Sanders or O.J. Simpson’s total for one reason: his 2,000 yard season came with his sitting out over 8 quarters in blowout wins. With his average per game divided out over a 14 game season his numbers project out to 2,294 yards and 26 TDs. Had that happened he would have broken Emmitt Smith’s record of 25 TDs and Marshall Faulk never would have had the record in 2000. Keep in mind he attained all this while playing for a defending Super Bowl champion with a bullseye on their back for the entire season. Something the other 2,000 yard rushers didn’t have to contend with.

After leading the Broncos to another Super Bowl triumph in the XXXIIIrd edition, a 34-19 win over the Falcons. Davis was on pace for a record setting career yet in the 3rd game of the ’99 season he tore ligaments in his knee making a tackle against the Jets and was never the same player after a year and a half off to recover. He retired after the 2001 season with 7,607 yards rushing and 60TDs in 7 seasons.

Now it’s at this point where you have to realize the greatness of Davis. At the current rate he was running the ball at the time of his injury, he was on pace to gain 12,824 yards in only EIGHT years! Only comparison to that  is Jim Brown who ran for 12,312 in 9 years. This was a north south runner who didn’t rely on moves to gain his yards so its very likely that he could have maintained his pace. His 56 touchdown total swells out past 110 given he would have made it injury free for those same 8 years. Thats production..

Here is another talent who didn’t play for a long career but as a comet burned bright as any ever seen in the football heavens. He was the power and impetus for a two time league champion, a celebrated 2,000 yard rusher, a Super Bowl MVP, and NFL MVP. What more could he have done? Those 3 years (96-98) he was an All Pro and Pro Bowl performer.

Just like Gale Sayers his career was cut short and he was never the same yet Davis deserves the same Hall of Fame distinction. He wasn’t as flashy as Sayers but he was more productive with a bullseye on his back and powered a league champion. That has to be worth something more than distinction. He was a great player and ambassador of the game. Never an off field issue uttered with his name and came off as an affable likeable player and person. He has to be considered the top Bronco running back of all time and that includes Hall of Famer Floyd Little who came three decades earlier.

Yet thats another debate for a different day…For induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame I present to you: Terrell Davis

2011 San Diego Chargers Preview

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The San Diego Chargers took their fans on a weird football odyssey last year. In 2010, NFL had some strange twists but do you realize that the Chargers finished #1 in offense AND defense yet finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs?? The last two times we at Taylor Blitz Times can remember that happening was in 1977 when the 12-2 Dallas Cowboys won it all, and the ’87 San Francisco 49ers who were 13-2 and should have won it.

When a team plays up and down to the level of their competition its suffering from a lack of leadership. Direct reflection of Norv Turner who should have been let go for having that much talent & not make the playoffs. Its evident that they played to the level of their competition and weren’t motivated to do away with the lesser teams.

How do you improve on having the best offense and defense in the NFL? How does a team with the second rated passer in Phillip Rivers sit at home in January? The Chargers were the 2nd highest scoring team and gave up the 10th fewest points in the NFL. These numbers and rankings just aren’t adding up.  There has to be a change in the culture of this football team for its psyche is a little off, yet where would you tinker as to not upset the production of the team? Norv Turner is definitely on the hot seat this year and throughout his head coaching career his leadership qualities have always been in question.  He’s shed some of that over the last few years with a trip to the ’07 AFC Championship Game but the team has had enigmatic season endings ever since. So those allegations are resurfacing.

Phillip Rivers handing off to rookie Ryan Matthews

Quarterback: Its sometimes strange in how media covers certain players or why fans don’t readily accept them. Phillip Rivers is on the flip side of the great trade for Eli Manning and is best known for his verbal skirmishes with Jay Cutler when he was a Denver Bronco. From time to time you see him in the face of a defender if he feels he was hit late and gets into it with opponents verbally. To us thats moxie, hutzpah, the type of fire from within that Dallas Cowboy fans would like to see from Tony Romo.  So why is it that Rivers public persona takes a hit for this side of his personality??

When they talk of the NFL’s best quarterbacks his name rarely comes up. Take a look at what he did last year; 357 of 541 for 4,710 yards and 30TDs with 13 int. Yikes folks those are Dan Fouts numbers!! He was the 2nd highest rated quarterback, led the NFL in passing yards and his touchdown total ranked 5th.  Do you realize he also led the NFL with 65 pass plays last year that gained over 20 yards??  He was named to his 3rd Pro Bowl, this time as a starter so maybe perceptions are starting to change. Entering his 8th season Rivers is in his prime and playing some great football.  He’s averaged nearly 31 touchdowns over the last three seasons and seems to be getting better with age.

The natural tendency is to gauge his success with that of his 2004 draft counterparts Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Now each of them have Super Bowl rings, so that has become the measuring stick for him to be graded by.  As a quarterback he has performed better than the both of his counterparts but without the hardware, he has to get his ring before he’s going to get his due.  May not be fair but perception is reality. He earned his courage badge forever when he limped one legged through the playoffs to the AFC Championship with a torn knee ligament in 2007.  It might be high time for Rivers to take on more of a leadership role yet what he has to have his team avoid falling behind and having to try and rally the Chargers in every game. He is a Super Bowl quality quarterback who might be just one year away from winning his.

Matthews in a 2010 pre season game against Chicago

Offensive Backfield: It took a year for everything to roll over but the Chargers learned that there is life after Ladainian Tomlinson.  After a year in which the Chargers found out the hard way that Darren Sproles was only a 3rd down back, they drafted Ryan Matthews from Fresno State. Last year he teamed with 243lb. butterball ex fullback Mike Tolbert, to form a formidable rushing attack. Tolbert led the team with 735 yards rushing with 11 TDs, while Matthews ran for 678 yards and 7 TDs despite missing 4 games. This year look for Matthews to go over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career.  He runs with power yet has more wiggle than Tolbert and can turn vicious shots into glancing blows.  We expect him to take on the featured role and have Tolbert’s carries diminish in 2011.  Now do we expect Matthews to duplicate the 1400 yards and 18 touchdowns that he and Tolbert combined for?? He’s going to come close. We expect a 1,200 yard 13 TD season this year.

Out of the backfield on 3rd down is where Darren Sproles was best utilized. Last year he gathered in 59 receptions for 520 yards and 2TDs.  Matthews and Tolbert combined for 47 receptions and another 361 yards out of the backfield.  By the time we put in FB Jacob Hester, this team can run out of any formation with either power or speed and should try some Power-I formations to cut down on penalties and  take control of the line of scrimmage early in ball games. They have 3rd down speed to get after linebackers and cause the mismatches that Sproles can turn into first downs. This team is set at running back and Tolbert can take over when Matthews needs a rest or is injured.  Both are young with Matthews in his 2nd year and Tolbert entering his 4th.  They also drafted Jordan Todman out of UConn for insurance.  At running back this team is playoff caliber as a committee. They have the breakout year from Matthews that we’re expecting and they could be Super Bowl quality.

Receivers: When you stop to think that between Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, there were a combined 17 games missed in 2010. Despite that the Chargers still finished with over 4,700 yards through the air?? Yikes! Even though he missed 6 games, Gates still made the Pro Bowl after a 50 catch season & scoring 10 TDs.  Once again his yards per reception average ranked up there with those of an outside receiver at 15.6.  However at 30, has he hit the wall when it comes to completing a full 16 game season?

He has been durable in the past in not missing games but he has been on the injury report a bunch with turf toe and ankle sprains over the last 3 years. After 8 seasons as the main “go to guy”, the last 7 with Pro Bowl distinction, has the pounding started to take its toll on Gates?? Keep an eye on this.

Receiving by committee was what the Chargers went through without their best wideout in Vincent Jackson. Emerging from the pack was Malcolm Floyd, who snagged 37 catches for 717 yards and 6 TDs. With Jackson healthy, maybe the Chargers don’t need that other big time receiver as many pundits think they do.  However they took a flyer on hometown product Vincent Brown, a 5-11, 187 lbs. with a 3rd round pick. He is shiftier than the taller, more stiff receivers in Nanee and Floyd who are straight line route runners.  If Brown comes in and contributes this could reduce playing time for former Cowboy Patrick Crayton.  In 2011 Crayton was 4th on the team with 28 catches for 514 yards yet only produced 1 TD. The Chargers need just a little more explosion out of the slot position and Brown could be that guy.

Vincent Jackson’s return is important to the Chargers maintaining mismatches in the passing game. At 6’5, 241 lbs. Jackson is a huge receiver who can muscle most corners. Add to that a 6’5, Floyd and a 6’3 Legedu Naanee and you have a receiving corp that causes serious physical mismatches in speed against linebackers in the nickle or smaller DBs to cover them. Along with Gates this is a near Super Bowl caliber group.

Offensive Line: An individual source of issues can be seen with this offensive line. Although they were number one in total offense, some deficiencies show up here.  However we have to remember San Diego is a passing team or at least they’re perceived to be since they were always scrambling from behind last year. The Chargers were 15th in NFL rushing with 1,810 yards and their 18 TDs ranked 4th.  In 2010, the offensive line did have 12 missed starts mainly at LT and RG due to injury yet the offensive line at RT was manned all season by Jeromey Clary. They drafted Steve Schilling , a guard from Michigan to compete for the RG spot. However when this team ran the football to the strong side, they only produced 22 rushing first downs and on 3rd and shorts/goal line were only successful 45 times. These numbers ranked 30th and 24th respectively. That has to get better so this team can run out the clock and win more games.

Consider the fact that the Chargers dropped back 578 times last year, they weren’t that bad when it came to protection. Rivers was sacked 38 time last year and hit another 68 times. Some of this can be attributed to Rivers penchant for holding on to the ball a little too long. San Diego’s protection ranked 21st in sacks allowed yet only 13th in hits on the quarterback so the protection breakdowns are infrequent. Once they get the right side of the line fortified this group can make it up to average

Defensive Line: Where everyone has been talking about the defenses in Pittsburgh and Green Bay yet this was the number one defense in all of football. This line was the impetus for the Chargers being 4th in the NFL against the run, allowing opponents  only 3.7 yards per carry.  Add to that the very first pick was on DT/DE Corey Liuget from Illinois, whom “Bolts From The Blue” believes will replace Jacques Cesaire at LDE.http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/4/30/2145940/2011-nfl-draft-san-diego-chargers-selections That may have been true before the lockout but if Liuget starts slow he’ll at least provide some serious depth. Aside from a lack of consistency in his pass rushing (1.5 sacks) we would have a hard time replacing him unless he was clearly outplayed in the pre season.

RE Luis Castillo and NT Antonio Garay hold ground against the run as well as Keisel and Hampton in Pittsburgh. Garay also pitched in with 5.5 sacks which is hard to do facing double and triple teams on the point. On paper this is another above average unit the Chargers field. If they can produce a few more sacks lookout.

Charger linebackers getting fired up!!

Linebacker: Shaun Phillips again went to the Pro Bowl after a solid season. His 55 total tackles was low but his impact was felt elsewhere with his 11 sacks, 7 passes defensed and 1 interception. Almost 20 times forcing a turnover or a punt is tremendous from one defender. The surprise campaign was turned in by inside ‘backer Kevin Burnett formerly of Dallas. He may have been robbed of a Pro Bowl season after a 95 tackle, 6 sack, 2 interception performance. Both Burnett and Phillips returned an interception for a touchdown in 2010. Each are primed to duplicate those performances the first issue is to retain Burnett’s services since he’s a free agent.

As for Stephen Cooper at the other inside linebacker spot, he will be challenged by Jonas Mouton out of Michigan who was selected in the second round.  What is surprising is that there was actually someone on the Michigan football team that could tackle last year?? We didn’t see it but we didn’t watch every game either. Our apologies this was an insurance move that was necessary but we see it playing out that Cooper will start early and then be replaced if Mouton can pick up the defensive sets and calls.  Last year Cooper accounted for 44 tackles in 12 games with 1 sack and an interception. Since he will turn 32 this year his production doesn’t merit what his tenure says he should be paid under the current collective bargaining agreement.

This team is still reeling from the loss of Shawne Merriman. He was their spiritual leader as much as a vocal one and his replacement Antwan Applewhite is serviceable but not the playmaker Merriman was. Alright we’re a little harsh but he did record 46 tackles and 3 sacks in the 13 games he replaced Merriman. At times he could be fooled but you have to attribute that to a lack of experience and he should be less stiff in his play this year. At 26 years of age Applewhite should be in his prime, the question is will they call for him to make the plays they used to ask of Merriman?  Linebacker on this team is slightly above average with a chance to be really good if Mouton shows up ready to play and Applewhite improves with his play recognition.

Antoine Cason making a solid tackle

Secondary: How is this team going to play at the corner with the loss of Cromartie? Remember that question before last season? Quite well thank you. His replacement Antoine Cason had 67 tackles, 17 passes defensed and 4 interceptions along with a forced fumble in a solid all around performance. He outperformed his counterpart Quentin Jammer who had 45 tackles, 11 passes defensed with 2 interceptions.  Understand that this team was #1 against the pass and was the only NFL team to allow less than 3,000 yards passing for the season. These corners are beyond solid.

By the time we make it back to the safeties, Eric Weddle (FS) and Paul Oliver (SS) you have two guys are who are willing to tackle. Weddle was second on the team with 95 tackles.  On a team that produced 47 sacks and a lot of pressure you’d think that the safeties would have more interceptions than the 2 Weddle produced and 1 for Oliver. Yet being the last line of defense they will step up and hit you that much we do know. As a secondary this is a near Super Bowl caliber secondary based on the corners. This might be the best corner tandem in football, rivaling that of Revis and Cromartie in New York.

Overall: Something is missing from this football team and it starts at the top when it comes to motivation.  This team starts too many games slow and then come roaring back only to fall short. In losses last year to the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals, and Rams it was the same thing over and over. The Chargers either didn’t score in the first quarter or first half and then scored in a mad scramble at the end of the game. This team lacks urgency and reminds us of the situation in Tampa right before Gruden took over. We think Norv Turner has taken this team as far as he could take it and the next coach may put them in the Super Bowl.

There is just no way Turner can survive not making the playoffs again with this much talent on the roster. This team might want to take a page from the Buffalo Bills in 1989 to squash their slow starts.  Since they’re so proficient at the hurry up offense, start the game with it to put their opponents on their heels a bit. If this team can get a lead they’re super dangerous. In 8 of their 9 wins, this team scored over 30 points averaging 34 points per game.  This is a Super Bowl champion in waiting. 2012 may be their year the question is will Norv Turner still be there.  This is the best team in the AFC on paper but they will frustrate their fans again this year.

2011 Oakland Raiders Preview

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Oakland Raiders Pre Kickoff

At some point the Oakland Raiders are going to make a few football moves that I’ll agree with although firing Tom Cable was not one of them. Many have attributed their newfound offensive success to Hue Jackson, who succeeded Cable as Head Coach. They did put the NFL on notice last year with a powerful rushing attack that kept them in games. Last year at midseason they were 5-4 and had just defeated the Chiefs, the eventual division winner, and looked to be headed to the playoffs. That stumble in Indianapolis in week 16 (31-26 loss) kept them from the postseason and they finished 8-8.

Last year the Raiders went undefeated in the AFC West, sweeping the division champion Chiefs in the process.  Can they duplicate that feat and win a few more games and get to the playoffs??  Well in football there is a saying that in order to be good you have to run the football and stop the run. They were 2nd in the NFL averaging 155 yards per game and a stout 4.9 yards per carry average. However there are two sides to that equation and where their numerator was good, their low common denominator of being 29th against the run, allowing 2,138 yards rushing was atrocious. They don’t fix this they have to watch the playoffs again.  As for Jason Campbell, pull the trigger and don’t play so overly cautious.  His team will need him to make more plays with defenses creeping up to stop the run.  So how will they fare this year?

Campbell needs to pull the trigger in 2011. Too often held the ball and took sacks or threw too quickly to his running backs.  Has to learn to let the passing windows develop to deliver the intermediate throws.

Quarterback: Face it, Jason Campbell is a serious upgrade from JaMarcus Russell.  Yet that’s not saying much when you’re replacing the biggest draft bust in NFL history. This was addition by subtraction in the team felt like it could win without seeing Russell in the lineup. Where in years past they looked defeated walking onto the field. The first thing asked of Campbell was to minimize the turnovers and he did that. However there were plays where Campbell was too apprehensive. He has to realize its his team and play with some abandon.  In 2010 he was 7-5 as a starter, completed 59% of his passes for 2,387 yds, 13 TDs, and only 8 interceptions. Statistically thats not bad yet many times he would check down to the running back without letting his downfield options develop. Then there were a few chances when Jacoby Ford broke into the open and Campbell would overthrow his target.  Maybe he’ll be more settled in his second season as the starter. They need him to make all the throws if they are to become a playoff team. Going into his 6th season its time for him to put it together and he has the tools. Will he??

Then you have his backup in scrappy Bruce Gradkowski. This guy plays from his gut and plays with a reckless abandon that Campbell should.  He passes further up the passing tree and will take a few more chances.  Some came out good and some bad.  He threw for 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions with his 157 attempts last year. Naturally his completion percentage was only 52.9% yet again he took more chances and inspires his teammates when he’s in there.  If there were a way to fuse these two into a single player, the Raiders would be set at quarterback.  Its like this “Have your read, know your defense, when you see the defense take their first steps, know where you’re going with the football and let it fly Jason Campbell.” Don’t be overly cautious! Remember when the Raiders won Super Bowl XVIII? In that season Jim Plunkett threw for 20 TDs and 18 interceptions so sometimes it can go against you but you can’t win most of your games throwing sideways passes.  Silver and black is below average. Campbell has to take charge and not go through the motions.

Darren McFadden ran like a beast in 2010. Has he finally arrived or was this an aberration??

Offensive Backfield: Did you see that??  Darren McFadden finally showed up! Yeah the guy from Arkansas who was the do everything back coming out of college.  Something happened last year and McFadden played motivated and ran with authority. His 1,157 yards were a career high and he ran with power between the tackles along with Michael Bush. Bush complemented McFadden with 655 yards of his own and ran for a team high 8 TDs to 7 for McFadden.  By the time you throw in Marcel Reece, no Raider running back averaged less than 4.1 yards.  Gaudy numbers when the league average is 4.0. As for McFadden he stopped going down with the first point of contact like he had in his previous 2 seasons.  He ran like the DMC we expected out of college.  He complemented his first 1,000 yard rushing year with 47 receptions out of the backfield for another 3 TDs.  He was the driving force behind the resurgent running game and Oakland had him for 13 of a possible 16 games last year v. the 12 combined starts over 2 seasons being nagged by injuries. He runs with abandon like he did last year and a 1,400 – 1,500 yard season is not out of the question.

Something was definitely in the gatorade last year for the Raiders.  Bush was the complimentary back who had an excellent year where he ran for nearly 700 yards, he caught 18 passes for nearly 200 more.  These two were giving defenses absolutely no rest as the 210 lb.s McFadden hit them first, then the 243 lbs. Bush would help tire them further and holes opened up later in games for McFadden to hit the big one on opponents.  Was this a fluke? Absolutely not. The Raiders ran with thunder and did so all year constantly knocking opponents back. This is the best 1-2 punch next to Kansas City at running back, so this team is Super Bowl quality at running back. What remains to be seen is how 4th round draft pick Taiwan Jones fits into the equation. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/profiles/taiwan-jones?id=2495467  If he’s a special team player or comes in as a supplemental 3rd down back this team stays Super Bowl quality at running back

2010 Pro Bowl TE Zach Miller

Receivers: Well everyone chides and teases about Al Davis and his penchant for the vertical passing game yet consequently he should have it. From a football strategist standpoint, they will lure teams into 7 and 8 man fronts to stop the run opening lanes for seam routes, verticals, digs, and deep corner patterns. As soon as that SS comes up these guys have to get open.    Here is where the Raiders may need to see improvement to become a playoff team. Darius Heyward Bey and Jacoby Ford have shown flashes that they can get deep, but can they learn to set up rival cornerbacks and not telegraph what they are running? Can they sell the first half of the play action pass to get free releases into the intermediate (10-15 yard) area of the passing tree? Right now they have some more learning to do but these are young players.

Going into his 3rd year, this is where Darrius Heyward-Bey needs to have his breakout year to justify his lofty 1st round selection and 7th pick overall status. Last year he caught 25 passes for 366 yards and only 1 touchdown, yet was overthrown on multiple times when he did get deep. Campbell hits him on those and he could possibly have his first 1,000 yard season or close to it. Right now Heyward-Bey is inconsistent with his set up moves to get deep on veteran corners. Jacoby Ford actually flashed more as a rookie than his 1st round counterpart. He only started 9 games yet went on to grab 25 passes for 470 yards and 2 TDs. He’s a quicker, more explosive receiver with more of an upside because he can get in and out of routes a little quicker to get himself open. They’re going to have to trust Campbell and Campbell has to trust them by throwing catchable passes they’re way. When in doubt, Campbell has Pro Bowl TE Zach Miller who had a stellar 2010 with 60 receptions for 685 yards and 5 touchdowns.  He led the Raiders in all 3 receiving categories yet that has to change for this team to see the postseason.  At receiver the Raiders are growing but right now we have to give them a below average rating.

Offensive Line: This group was given a bum rap by many for their sack totals given up last year.  Its true they gave up 44 sacks yet Raider quarterbacks were hit on only 77 plays all told.  For every team that ranked in the bottom half of the league for sacks their quarterbacks were usually hit double or even triple the amount of times they were sacked.  Much of this can be attributed Campbell holding onto the ball to long rather than consistent poor pass blocking.  Yet the Raiders went after OLine talent in the draft, first taking Stefen Wisniewski in the second round from Penn St, then Joseph Barksdale in the 3rd from LSU.  Incumbent RT Langston Walker may have a hard time fighting off Barksdale for the starting position. Wisniewski is fighting for one of the guard spots.

Not exactly sure we agree with tinkering with this line when you dissect last year’s numbers. They’re adding this talent to a line that mashed its way to 2,494 yards and a 4.9 yards per carry average.  Both those numbers ranked second in the NFL but the Eagles (yards per carry) numbers were distorted because of Michael Vick, so the Raiders were really the league’s best ground team.  Those are some tremendous numbers for an offensive line that didn’t have 1 pro bowler on it. In fact when it came to 3rd or 4th and 2 or shorter, the Raiders gained a first down or touchdown 67 times running to the left and 79 times running right up the gut.  They weren’t that successful running right with only 25 successes. So you can see where those two draft picks will be fighting for playing time. This line is playoff caliber and with improved quarterback play could be Super Bowl caliber.

Kelly and Shaughnessy welcoming Tim Tebow to Oakland

Defensive Line: What defensive line?? As we mentioned before, the ranking of 29th against the run and giving up over 2,100 yards on the ground starts right here. They also allowed 14 rushing touchdowns which negated the advantage the offense gave them anyway.  How bad are these numbers?? If the totals that Oakland gave up on the ground were attributed to a 33rd NFL team, they would have finished seventh in rushing. Yikes!! Tackle somebody! How did Richard Seymour make the Pro Bowl again?? Why wasn’t a draft pick spent here??

Well one thing they did do really well last year was get to the quarterback.  The Raiders tallied 47 sacks and 27.5 came from their front line. Matt Shaughnessy (who?) and Tommy Kelly led the line with 7 sacks each followed by Semour’s 5.5, and Lamar Houston’s (#99) 5 quarterback take downs. They may not want to tear up the field after the quarterback and disregard the run so much. Richard Seymour did see a ton of  double teams which freed up Shaughnessy and Kelly to garner 56 & 59 tackles respectively.  They may need to play at home more and become solid at stopping the run. However with 3 defensive linemen over 30 there is a chance they’ll wear down by the end of the season.  Again, why wasn’t there a draft pick spent here?  Defensive line is below average in the Bay Area.

McClain is the real deal!

Linebackers: Quite simply, the heart and soul of this defense. The Raiders have found their MLB for years to come in Rolando McClain out of Alabama. He didn’t disappoint in his rookie season, producing 85 tackles, half a sack and had an interception.  The years of a stopgap free agent filling this spot has ended. This kid is the real deal. He has range and at 6’3, 254 lbs arrives with thunder once he gets there.  This is Oakland’s version of Patrick Willis. Will soon be a Pro Bowler once Ray Lewis and a few veterans retire or play slacks off.

Speaking of Pro Bowls, we think Kamerion Wimbley was cheated of going to one last year.  He didn’t make a tremendous amount of splash plays but he was consistent.  He led the Raiders with 9 sacks, and tallied 57 tackles with 1 forced fumble from his outside linebacker spot. Those numbers on a higher ranked defense and he may have been in Hawai’i.  These 2 men were 3rd and 4th in tackles for the silver and black in 2010 and should be around for years to come.  Before the lockout, the Raiders re-signed Wimbley, formerly of the Cleveland Browns, to a one year deal designating him a franchise player for 2011. Expect a big year from him because he knows a multi-million dollar deal awaits with another performance like 2010.  These two are stellar yet need some help.  Teams have been able to get offensive linemen on them because of the leaks up front. Better play by the DTs up front and their numbers could go way up.  Raiders are playoff ready at linebacker.

Secondary: With the impending free agent loss of Namedi Asougmha looming, the Raiders quickly moved to pick up CB DeMarcus VanDyke and Chimdi Chekwa as possible replacements. VanDyke, from the U, is similar in build to Namedi, at 6-1, 180 lbs.  He has long arms and should prove to be disruptive in jamming receivers.  Along with special teamer Chris Johnson #37, they should have a succession in place.  Johnson started 4 games last year and had 16 tackles, defended 9 passes and had 2 interceptions. So this isn’t a stab in the dark. If the rookies aren’t ready don’t be surprised or disappointed if #37 is starting at one of the corner spots.  The other corner is Stanford Routt #26 who quietly had a good season with 54 tackles, 13 passes defensed, and 2 interceptions. They’ll be fine at the corner.

At safety they might be too beat up to pick off any passes.  SS Tyvon Branch and FS Michael Huff led the team in tackles with 101 and 84 tackles respectively.  That is far too many plays getting past the front seven.  These two were active and were effective blitzers with each tallying 4 sacks. Some have been disappointed with Huff from a fan’s perspective but he seems to make enough plays for me.  Last year he defensed 7 passes and had 3 interceptions. If the defensive front keeps opposing ball carriers from running at him full speed, he can concentrate on the pass where is numbers there will improve.  As a defensive foursome this group is going to get an above average ranking even with the loss of the aforementioned #21. They have 3 corners to replace him and Johnson is a cousin to former Raider’s running back Kenny King, so he has family ties within the organization.

Violator and the crazies in the Black Hole

Overall: The Raiders should be improved from 2010 and the next step is at quarterback. Campbell has to be told that he’s the starter so he can play without fear.  All those groans from long balls that don’t connect needs to go away for you can’t hide your quarterback.  The question is can he move from being a quarterback playing not to make a mistake, to one thats trying to win the game? Will he improve with his downfield reads and let fly? If he does this the Raiders challenge the Chiefs for the AFC West crown with 10 or 11 wins.  If he doesn’t the Raiders will know what to draft first starting the 2012 season and a 7-9 or 8-8 season awaits.  The other factor is if they use the money they didn’t pay Namedi to get some defensive line help.  They have to improve against the run for the aforementioned development of Campbell to get them to the playoffs. Can they?? Will they??

Green Bay Receives Super Bowl XLV Championship Ring

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Super Bowl XLV Packer’s Championship Ring

Well the day finally arrived and the Green Bay Packers had their Super Bowl Ring ceremony.  Each player, coach, staff assistant and player personnel members all received their rings.  Its a beautiful ring and for the 4th time Jostens was the jeweler selected to commemorate the championship with a ring design.  Its a beautiful ring and I love the 4 footballs on top signifying the 4 Super Bowl titles.  One side has the block Packers logo and a Super Bowl trophy where the other side has a nice carved out Lambeau Field and the player /coaches name under two rows of diamonds.  This design is easy on the eye and very modern and wearable.

This way the achievement itself seems to be focused on.  It was customary to have the score of the game and that of the conference championship on most rings of the past. Lets take a look at a few of the other Packers’ rings of the past.  So now Coach McCarthy,  Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews III, , company have championship hardware to go along with Holmgren, Favre, Reggie White, LeRoy Butler, Antonio Freeman of the new guard.  The old guard? Yes they get to have their names up there with Lombardi, Starr, Kramer, Hornung, Davis, Adderley, and Nitschke.  It would have been nice to see the total of NFL Championships on the ring to offset when short sighted fans talk of Sixburgh, or the 5 won by Dallas and San Francisco. That they are all holding less than half of what the Packers have won. Congrats Green Bay.

1965 NFL Championship Ring

Lets take a look at some of the other Packers rings…How about the 1965 NFL Championship Ring.  The Packers beat the defending champion Browns in Jim Brown’s last football game and set sail on the monumental effort of winning 3 championships in a row. The field was muddy and Jim Taylor played with a heavily taped thigh for a pulled hamstring. Lambeau was a quagmire as the Packer slipped past the Browns 23-12.

In the 2 seasons before this one, the Packers had lost star halfback Paul Hornung and watched their hated rival Chicago Bears win in 1963 and the Cleveland Browns in 1964. Hornung was suspended in ’63 and was rounding into shape in ’64.  Then Lombardi started to rebuild some pieces of his defense during these years and in 1965 sicc’d them on the unsuspecting NFL.

Then you have the ring for winning the first Super Bowl. War of the Worlds. First they beat the upstart Dallas Cowboys 34-27 in one of the ’60s greatest games.  Bart Starr threw for 4 touchdown passes and the game came down to the 2 yard line in the old Cotton Bowl.  A goal line stand held the Cowboys and on third down Don Meredith rolled right. A missed block let a blitzing Dave Robinson free to hit Meredith just as he threw.  The pass was picked off by S Tom Brown in the endzone preserving the win.

Off to Los Angeles and the first Super Bowl where the Packers beat the AFL’s Kansas City Chiefs 35-10.  A tougher game than many anticipated until Willie Wood intercepted a Len Dawson pass and took it back 50 yards.  Packers score a few plays later to go up 21-10 and it was accademic from there. The singular diamond signfies the Packers status as number one in ALL of professional football.

Then came the game that has been etched into the minds of football fans everywhere. The Ice Bowl.  Played in -15 degree weather and a windchill at -60, the Packers beat the Cowboys 21-17 on Bart Starr’s last second touchdown plunge to give the Packers their third straight championship. This was the last time this has been accomplished.  The only other time was the Packers from 1929-1931.

The best record in football belonged to the 13-1 Oakland Raiders of the AFL but they weren’t championship ready for the  9-4-1 Packers.  Lombardi’s final champion was devoid of Paul Hornung & Jim Taylor. Chuck Mercein, Donny Anderson, and Ben Wilson were the runners during the playoff run.  The Packers carried off Lombardi after a 33-14 triumph.  This ring showcases 3 very large diamonds to commemorate their achievement winning 3 in a row. No other team has won 3 straight championships since. Its chronicled in my “Ghost of Lombardi” story the quirky, bizarre circumstances that halted 5 others trying to attempt it.

Then there was Super Bowl XXXI. Can’t you still picture Reggie White taking off with the Super Bowl trophy? One of the lasting images was the clock clicking down and that blizzard of confetti for the first time at the Super Bowl. Packer coaches and players hugging each other and you could hardly see them.  Packers 35-21 over the New England Patriots.

A close game that was threatening to be closer until Desmond Howard took the kickoff back 99 yards to demoralize the Patriots.  After that, the Minister of Defense recorded 3 sacks against a despearate Patriot’s team forced to pass. White delivered in his quest to bring Green Bay a championship after signing as a free agent in 1993. In the years prior, it was discussed that black players wouldnt want to go to Green Bay. His signing was not only a coup, don’t forget Keith Jackson, Eugene Robinson, Ron Cox, Andre Rison and Desmond Howard all came in the latter two years to dispell that notion.  Then they went on to bring home the Lombardi after a 29 year hiatus.

1962 NFL Championship Ring

For good measure lets throw in a ring from the 1962 NFL Champions and the middle of a first chance at Lombardi winning a third in a row. Alas, Hornung was suspended for gambling in 1963 and the team would have to rebuild before they put themselves in position to go for it later in the decade.

Yet this is just a tip of the iceberg for the team with the richest heritage in the NFL. THIRTEEN NFL CHAMPIONSHIPS! Most teams if you add their championships to their rivals wouldn’t come close to that staggering number.  Then the 2011 edition in most pundits expert opinion are favored to return to the Super Bowl.  Not like most defending champions being afforded lip service, I mean this team won the Super Bowl with a second string football team.  How could this team not be picked to win it all returning those 16 players on injured reserve and then a good draft?? Well we’ll have time to get into all of that. This is a celebration of their championship heritage and the latest bauble to commemorate it.