Tag Archives: NFL Predictions

Super Bowl XXI Giants v. Super Bowl XXV Giants

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SUPER BOWL XXV CHAMPION 1990 NEW YORK GIANTS <————————————Click Link

NFC Championship Preview

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Chicago Bears hosting the Green Bay Packers for the right to go to the Super Bowl.  If images of Vince Lombardi and George Halas aren’t coming to mind we may need to introduce you to table tennis as a favorite sport.  This is the essence of pro football with the backdrop of history, weather, most hated rival playing for the conference crown; how can this get any better?  It can’t, plain and simple.  One of the beautiful points to this championship for affecionados like me is to remind younger fans of the super rich heritage of the NFL.  No the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, nor San Francisco 49ers have the most championships in NFL history, that distinction belongs to these two teams.  The fact that fans have gone their entire lifetimes without seeing these two play with stakes this high makes this game special.  I know, I know…Jef get to the game at hand..

When we take a look at Aaron Rodgers what do you see?  Easily football’s finest young quarterback who is ascending to a place that was once reserved for only Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in most circles. Last weeks 31 of 36 for 366 yards and 3TDs in a 48-21 win over Atlanta was his calling card to greatness. He didn’t stand in the pocket and give a Joe Montana performance, he was flushed from the pocket on numerous occasions and completed passes while being chased from the pocket that realistically the defense should have been able to make a few stops.  There were throws that defied logic and its time to talk about Rodgers on the move as one of the best in the business.  His feet are always ready to deliver the football which is key to his game.  So in two playoff games Rodgers has led the Packers to 48 and 45 (last year’s loss to the Cardinals) point totals. Yikes, what will he look like in a year or two?

Over this season has there been a team that has evolved on offense more than the Chicago Bears?  Coming into the season I thought the marriage of Cutler and Mike Martz’s system would be able to get the most of Jay’s long ball arm.  They just had to rope the penchant for Martz to pass too often trying to show off his genius that nearly got Kurt Warner killed when he coached the Rams.  Evidenced by the dismal 9 sacks in the first half performance against the Giants and Cutler didn’t make it back for the second half.  Yet Lovie Smith and Martz have roped in the offense and over the second half of the season ran the ball more than they passed it.  Last week’s playoff game against Seattle, the running attack was supplemented with a variety of screens to further slow the pass rush.  Mike Martz can be a brilliant play caller.

Aaron Rodgers surveying the Bears defense

Jay Cutler has been the beneficiary of this more balanced play calling and has matured amidst detractors who refuse to notice. He’s never played a playoff game how will he perform? Hmm…play action down the middle for a 58 yard touchdown to Greg Olsen on his first pass attempt.  The last time the NFL saw that happen in a playoff game take a guess who was calling the plays?  Mike Martz when Kurt Warner hit Isaac Bruce for a 77 yarder td on the Rams first play in the ’99 divisonal tilt against Minnesota.  That withstanding, Cutler played under control threw for 2TDs in the game and ran for 2 more becoming the first QB since Otto Graham in 1955.  However a closer look and we saw a confident more determined quarterback, one who put his head down and smashed into the endzone on one run, and forcefully ran for a 4th and 1 near the goalline to set up the Bears 2nd TD.  This was not the same Cutler we saw on that fateful Monday Night against the Giants ducking for cover and unsure of himself.  He’s grown in stature as a pro quarterback over the second half of this season.    Advantage Packers in quarterbacking in this game…

The team that establishes the run best will take control of this football game.  The Packers have found a new workhorse in these playoffs with rookie James Starks.  However this is somewhat overblown.  He rushed 25 times for 66 yards for a paltry  2.6 yds avg.  against Atlanta in which the Packers put up 48 points. This is the issue when dealing with a rookie.  Do I believe in his performance against Philadelphia in the wildcard or this latest outting?  Enter Matt Forte for Chicago, he only rushed 25 times for 80 yards, a slightly better 3.2 yds avg. v. Seattle, yet he supplemented this with 3 receptions for 54 yards more.  Seeing that we have two highly ranked defenses in this game one of these offenses has to give.  Advantage Bears slightly…Martz needs to slip Forte on screens at the right time to slow down a certain Mr. Matthews to aid his passing attack.

Alright its cold out and we have football’s #5 and #9 ranked defenses in the Packers and Bears respectively.  Both stout against the run. Each with defensive stalwarts rushing the passer, the aforementioned Clay Matthews and a one Mr. Julius Peppers. The Packers have the better secondary in Charles Woodson and Tremond Williams, who just played his way onto the Pro Bowl roster with his performance last week.  Third cornerback, rookie Sam Shields from Miami, is coming on.  The Packers must get in front and make the Bears pass into their secondary.  The Bears have the better front seven and perhaps the best in football.  Julius Peppers tilts the field and this matchup in the Bears favor.  In their prior meeting at Soldier Field, the Packers had four penalties attributed to trying to slow down the athletic Peppers.  His presence takes attention away from a lethal Urlacher and Lance Briggs.  Add to that an awakening Tommie Harris and Idonijie #71 will be single blocked on the side away from Peppers.  Look for Idonijie and Peppers to corral Rodgers where Atlanta could not.  Advantage Chicago based on crowd noise and front seven strength across the board.

Which leads to special teams.  Sigh, do I really have to tell you about history’s finest ever kick returner Devin Hester from Miami? Of course its easy to say that he did return a punt for a touchdown in the Soldier Field meeting between these two teams, but its deeper, systemic if you will.  Thanks to Peppers and company, the Bears are the fifth best team in not allowing their opponent to convert on 3rd down at 35%. When opponents are stopped inside their own 40 yard line, teams can’t ask their punter to punt out of bounds in fear of a shanked kick, giving the Bears even better field position.  They are forced to kick it to Hester in that instance and here in late January amidst swirling winds he will get several shots in this game.  Advantage Bears.

For the Packers to win Aaron Rodgers and that superb receiving corps have to have a game like they did in Atlanta and Arizona last year to win.  The problem is those were heremetic, antiseptic dome games, not windy Soldier Field in late January.  The Bears want to put bruises on the body and the psyche of Rodgers.  The Bears should play to the strength of their defense and special teams while taking calculated shots with Cutler’s arm when they get near 50 yard line.

Prediction 2010 NFC Champion Chicago Bears  23-16

Shocker!!

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How does a team go from losing a battle for first place in a division 45-3 to winning an AFC Divisonal Playoff over the New England Patriots 28-21?  Emotion.  Well emotion and tight coverage.  The defense that we were promised between Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis finally showed up.  The coverage was so tight the defenese was able to get to Tom Brady sacking him 5 times and had him uncomfortable and double clutching all night.  A defense missing Kris Jenkins and Jim Leonard hadn’t looked this powerful in many weeks.  They backed up the bravado and talk that had dominated the week leading up to the game.

Tom Brady couldnt find an open reciever for much of the night and he was getting hit like he had been by the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.  The Patriots handicapped their own efforts by beginning the day with Wes Welker on the bench for disciplinary reasons.  This backfired and kept them from establishing a rhythm although they moved the football on their opening drive they struggled in close.  First they forced Brady into an interception by linebacker David Harris.   The lack of a running game came that plagued New England all year showed up at the goal line on the next drive.  They tried to pass into the endzone resulting in an endzone drop by TE Alge Crumpler.  The chance to get their crowd into the game and raise self doubt in the Jets had come and gone.  All of this before we get to New England’s ill advised fake punt which led to a Sanchez to Braylon Edwards to make it 14-3 and an eery blanket of silence cascaded over Gillette Stadium.  More important the self doubt started to permeate that Patriot sideline.

The Jets were highly motivated to make amends for the embarrassing defeat a month ago.  The emotion of disliking your divisional rival.  Rex Ryan and his team turned the tables on the favored Patriots starting with all the trash talk that roped the Patriots into some uncommon ground.  No not this week, go all the way back to when Rex was at the podium and made the declaration that they were going after the Patriots.  That he hadn’t come to New York to “kiss Belichick’s rings” and the barbs didn’t stop there.  Getting under the skin of Bill Belichick is what Rex was trying to do when he said this game was personal about wanting to beat Bill and the Patriots.

With tactical dominance established defensively, the Jet were able to let their offense settle down and get into the game.  Mark Sanchez came of age with a solid performance throwing for 194 yards on 16 of 25 passing and 3 touchdowns. Dare we say he outperformed Tom Brady?  Yes he did and a rushing attack that complemented Sanchez with over 120 yards rushing kept the clock moving.  Once they started to believe as an overall unit the game was effectively over.  The Jets received an emotional pep talk from Dennis Byrd before the game and carried his jersey out to the pregame coin toss.  They channeled that along with wanting to make amends for their embarrassing defeat a month ago.  Add to that the doubting press, and an angry Jet closed ranks and took the field with something to prove.  Did they?? LOL  See you in Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship.