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2011 Kansas City Chiefs Preview

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What produces a good team?  Is it based upon the accumulation of top shelf talent or can you coach a lesser talented team with top shelf coaching?  Head Coach Todd Haley put together a staff with 3 former head coaches with multiple Super Bowl rings from the 00’s Patriots and 1980s New York Giants. Did you know that current defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has 5 Super Bowl rings?  Yet is overlooked when it comes to credit in formulating defensive gameplans and getting the most out of moderate talent.

The Chiefs lost Charlie Weiss, who went back to the college ranks with the Florida Gators.  Yet the offense he leaves behind was the sparkplug that powered this team to a 10-6 record and the AFC West Divisional Crown.  Haley, who was the former offensive coordinator for the 2008 NFC Champion Cardinals, should have more of a hand in the play calling.  Can the Chiefs improve on the rapid rise and improvement shown in 2010?  Has the talent on this team developed enough to take the next step?

Quarterback: Time to enter the confessional: How many of you were thinking Matt Cassel was the second coming of Scott Mitchell or Rob Johnson? Quarterbacks who filled in for an injured starter, played well, parlayed it into a big free agent contract, then faltered with his new team. Well after a lukewarm 2009 in which Cassel tossed 16 TDs and 16 interceptions, he improved dramatically in his single season under Weiss. Cassel tossed 27 TDs with only 7 interceptions while moving his passer rating to a respectable 8th in the NFL. His improvement from 69.9 in 2009, to 93 was the best turnaround in all of pro football.

These numbers even top his 2008 campaign when he filled in for Tom Brady and led the Patriots to a surprising 11-5 season, which included a 5 game winning streak to conclude the season. Going into his 7th season,, he is entering his prime as a signal caller. One way to get to Cassel is to rush him from his front side.  He seems to throw the ball away or pull it down prematurely at times when he has a split second to complete the throw.  Even though he’s intelligent enough to know when to throw it away, this contributed to his ranking of 18th in passing yards per attempt (6.9yd avg.) along with his dumpoffs. He’s a little quick to move his feet from a throwing position.  So time your front side overload blitzes and jump his short routes when you do.  The Ravens were affective with this in last year’s wildcard playoff loss. Otherwise he can play action pass the Chiefs to efficient drives and to narrow wins. Arrowhead stadium has its most effective quarterback since Len Dawson and quarterback is good in Kansas City.

Offensive Backfield:  This team is set at running back with the continued development of Jamaal Charles. Entering his 4th season he is averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry over 3 seasons. His 1,467 yards last year was 2nd in the NFL while snaring 45 receptions for another 468 yards, scoring 8 times overall. His yards per reception average of 10.4 shows you can’t discount Charles in the passing game.  You had better bring some healthy, in shape linebackers to  play Kansas City or you might be in for a long day. At 5’11 199 lbs., it was thought by some that Charles may not be tough enough between the tackles, coming into the NFL.  Last year showed his 1,100 yard season in 2009 was no fluke. He started only 5 games last year and the Chiefs are doing the right thing playing him with 2 backs sharing the workload otherwise Charles might break down.  This keeps Charles fresh and allows him to break big plays once the Chiefs opponents start to wear down. Many good years ahead for this talent from Texas.

One thing we can’t come to grips with at the Taylor Blitz Times is why teams have let Thomas Jones go when he has been so productive? The last two stops he was let go by teams fearing he’d get old on them and not perform which is nuts if you see this guy out of uniform.  In his last year with the Bears in 2006, he led the Bears to the Super Bowl rushing for 1,210 yards. He even ran for 112 yards in Super Bowl XLI, which was the first time since Thurman Thomas in Super Bowl XXV to do so. In his last year with the Jets in 2009, he rushed for 1,402  yards and 14 TDs, leading the Jets to the AFC Championship game.  Then released after those two years?? Are you kiddin’ me? Its no coincidence that Jones physical running style embodied the attitude of his team’s offense on a 3rd successive team that made the playoffs.  Last year was the first time in 6 years Jones didn’t cross the 1,000 yard threshold finishing with 896.

First glance at his 3.7 yard average per rush, you’d think he was slowing down when in reality he carried the ball in all obvious running situations.  The Chiefs may benefit themselves by not telegraphing that they are always going to run when Jones is on the field.  Make no mistake that Jones is in the twilight of his career. Yet this is an extreme physical specimen who keeps himself in great shape with a body weight lifters could be proud of. So even at the age of 32 we expect him to have at least two good years left in him with the current situation.  With teams focusing a little more on Cassel, WR Bowe, and first round draft pick in Pitt wideout Jonathon Baldwin, expect him to cross the 1,000 yard threshold yet again.  As a matter of fact the Chiefs may post the first 1,000 yard rushing tandem in AFC West history.  Rushing the football over 500 times last year, yikes. At running back, Kansas City is Super Bowl quality…better bring some linebackers with “big boy” pads on to play them too.

Receivers: The Chiefs wanted to ensure that teams couldn’t concentrate solely on Dewayne Bowe last year by running effectively, and this year by drafting him a running mate in Pitt’s Jonathon Baldwin.  As for Bowe, he had an explosive year pulling in 72 receptions for 1,162 yards and 15 TDs.  A physical specimen at 6’2 221lbs with good speed, is only going into his 5th season and should be there for the Chiefs for years to come.  With a strong running game to force more 8 man fronts Bowe had a field day against undersized DBs. With the addition of 6’4 228 lbs Baldwin, the Chiefs will field one of football’s largest set of receivers. They will be a team that can move the chains yet we have to see how Bowe comes back after this lockout.  If he’s worked out fiendishly so that his hamstrings hold up, he will be the deep threat with Baldwin the itermediate target. With wideouts this big Oakland had better think twice about Namedi getting out of town as a corner.

The Chiefs are serviceable at TE with Leonard Pope and Tony Moeaki combining for 57 receptions and 5 TDs. Its hard to think of that being productive after Tony Gonzalez manned this spot for so long but these guys are better blockers.  Also 3rd down back Dexter McCluster ate into some of this group’s production running the up and under routes that the tight end would usually run.  With some of the division’s defenses in flux, this should be a good receiving group in Kansas City.

Offensive Line: After leading the NFL in rushing attempts (556), rushing yards (2,627), and finishing tied for 4th in rushing attempts with a 4.7 yards per carry average, this team comes off the ball with consistency.  The seven man sled is alive and well in Kansas City practices.  This team had 72 runs of over 10 yards or more and pushed for first downs on 3rd or 4th and 2, 73% of the time up the gut. Coach Haley has to love that!  How they only had one Pro Bowl lineman in LG Brian Waters is embarrassing.  As always it takes the league 1 year after a performance to recognize emerging talent.  With a heavy dose of running the football, you have to say RG Ryan Lilja and RT Barry Richardson are getting the job done.  They are in their 7th and 3rd years respectively and should be able to maintain their level of play for the foreseeable future.

One of the ways to get after the Kansas City offensive line is to get on top of this team by 7 or more points.  Since they are a heavy run offense they aren’t conditioned to come back or protect the quarterback for extended drives consisting of a majority of passing.  This team ranked 12th in the NFL allowing 32 sacks, and 18th allowing 74 hits on the quarterback.  So they are better suited in pushing off the ball than they are at protecting the passer.  With this line I’d definitely overload blitz in the face of Matt Cassell who gets the ball out a tad early which couples with the tendency that he gets hit a lot on dropbacks.  All told this team has a lot of leads and stays committed to the run so they don’t fall too far behind.  Offensive line is superior in Kansas City and may be a shade better than New England.

Defensive Line: Surprisingly the Chiefs aren’t getting the return they had originally envisioned in DE Glenn Dorsey out of LSU.  This is partially the team’s fault for drafting a 3 technique 4-3 tackle then converting to a 3-4 defense the next season.  He got caught in the middle, just ask former Green Bay Packer DE Aaron Kampman.  Now that isn’t an excuse for an anemic showing with only 2 sacks in nickle situations when they employ 4 man fronts, but he isn’t effective as a DE.  The Chiefs should trade him to a team committed at a 4-3 defense like Chicago, Minnesota, Atlanta, or home to New Orleans and getting something in return.  His build is conducive to be a “rooter”, to shove the middle of a pass pocket and not come from the additional 3 yards away at DE. Since the Chiefs are 14th in rushing yards allowed and average with 1,764 and 4.3 respectively they could use more help on this line.

The combined 5.5 sacks amongst the front 3 needs to be higher, especially for a defense that should be that rested on a team that ran the most in the NFL. DT Ron Edwards and DE Shaun Smith are decent players yet could improve as pass rushers.  The issue is that in year’s 9 and 6 respectively, this is as good as they will be and play for the aging Edwards could slip. To that avail the Chiefs drafted specimen Allen Bailey from Miami to help with that interior push.  The question is where will they play him.  He seems suitable to rush from the inside on nickle and dime packages with his explosion and strength. He should be able to play special teams to keep him engaged in games but again his body type doesn’t lend to a DE, maybe part time DT. He could be disruptive if he learns to fight better with his hands.  The defensive line is slightly below average yet it could make a few strides this season if Bailey disrupts on 3rd down.

Linebackers: The Patriots flat out gave Scott Pioli and the Chiefs brass a gift when they traded Mike Vrabel to them.  A heady linebacker who’s veteran leadership and 3 Super Bowl rings give him the locker room clout to have the ear of his younger teammates. He has shown invaluable in helping the Chiefs grow up fast under Romeo Crennel’s watch.  He is showing signs of wear in not making any splash plays but he just made the right ones yet father time may be catching this 14th year vet. Star of this defense is Tamba Hali closing in at the right side OLB spot.  The Chiefs were hoping he’d improve on his 2009 and he didn’t disappoint charting 14.5 sacks (1st in AFC) and second in the league to DeMarcus Ware with 15. Hali forced 4 fumbles, recovered 2 and knocked down 3 passes and should have been to the Pro Bowl.  He’s only 27 years of age and has steadily improved with now 3 years with over 8 sacks.  Only going to get better.

Inside linebacker Derrick Johnson #56 led the team with 120 combined tackles and returned his only interception for a TD.  He gets to the football and along with Jovan Belcher’s 84 tackles this may be the best younger set of inside ‘backers in all of football.  Combined they had 2 sacks and 4 forced fumbles bringing some thump with their tackles.  Belcher was a rookie and Johnson is only entering his 6th season.  Couple that with the ages of the Jets and Raven’s inside tandem and this could be the AFC’s best within a year or two.  Linebacker is really good in Kansas City.

Secondary: Of all the playoff teams out of the AFC last year, the Chiefs were fair larsonists with 11 interceptions between their starters. They had solid play out of free safeties John McGraw and Kendrick Lewis who combined for 5 interceptions and benefitted from teams throwing away from Pro Bowl SS Eric Berry.  In 2010 Berry had 4 interceptions while making 87 tackles.  Of his 4 interceptions he did take one back for a pick 6 from 54 yards out.  This guy is a playmaker.  At the corner position, high draft pick Javier Arenas could only make the field in obvious passing situations as a nickle back. Why?? Ask the Chiefs brass about the play of corners Brandon Flower with 14passes defensed, and Brandon Carr’s 23.  An active group.  Now throw in Arenas’ 7 passes defensed and 1 interception to go along with the 2 Brandon’s 3 picks and teams had better not throw into this secondary.  With their top three corners all being 24 years old or less, this is the best secondary fielded by the Chiefs since the million dollar secondary of Kevin Ross, Albert Lewis, Lloyd Burrus, and Deron Cherry of mid to late 80s fame.  Superior is the only grade to be given out here and if this team can get another pass rusher to force more errant throws….yikes!!

Overall: Still the best in the AFC West, and if they could take something from the intensity they faced in the wild card round against Baltimore, this team could be headed to the AFC Championship Game or beyond.  Last year early on the question was were they as good as their 3-0 record. They weren’t.  They were better as evidenced by their 5-2 stretch to win the division crown when the pressure was on at the end of the season.  As strong as they are in the phases of running the football and defending the pass, if they get a lead its curtains.  They are well coached and they could make a conference splash this year if age shows up in Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  A team with no obvious weaknesses that has to see Head Coach Haley scout himself and not get pass happy with another big target opposite Bowe. He could get flashbacks to his offensive co ordinator days with the Arizona Cardinals and take to the air.

Careful Coach Haley, you have a good thing building in Kansas City and this team could make a Super Bowl run in these next two seasons.  One of the chances for this team to see growth is in week 10 with a Monday night matchup in New England.  Kansas City comes through with a win there in a championship building block game, this team could be the AFC’s sleeper.  I know that sounds crazy to say of a possible two time division champion, but they are not the sexy pick and most pundits would list them as the 5th or 6th best AFC team. They should finish with a record of 11-5 or 12-4 with another AFC West Title. Plenty of bar-b-que and handwarmers come playoff time in Kansas City.

2011 New Orleans Saints Preview

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Its amazing what happens in pro football when a team becomes Super Bowl champion.  Every little nuance is studied and every small flaw gets worked on until it becomes a crack, then transformed into a team’s Achille’s heel.  However when you think about it, the same problems the Saints had in 2009 were there in 2010.

In ’09 the ball just seemed to keep bouncing their way, from the Robert Meachem stealing the ball from a Redskin who intercepted Brees then ran it in for a TD, to the tipped pass to Darren Sharper who returned it for a clinching TD in a struggle with the Dolphins. What goes up must come down and all those you climb over to get that ring are all of those who will give you their best shot on your way down.  Does it wear on a team? Week after week everyone takes their best shot and the war of attrition sets in…yes  By the end of the 2010 season the New Orleans Saints were running on empty.  We at the Taylor Blitz Times are still waiting for the Saints to tackle Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch.  With the additions and target on someone else’s back, can they liberate the NFC South mantle from the Atlanta Falcons??

Quarterback: Aside from Green Bay and New England, no team is in better shape at the quarterback position.  You could argue that Drew Brees is still the NFC ‘s best quarterback over Aaron Rodgers.  Hell the NFL for that matter. Without his steady play this team would have slid into the abyss with a running game that wasn’t as formidable as the title run the year before.

Although Brees passer rating dropped to 12th, (90.9) he threw a whopping 658 times completing 448 for 4,620 yards, 33TDs yet had 20 interceptions. Having to overcompensate for the anemic running game and being forced to throw, contributed to the high turnover totals.  Sounds like a down year coming off of his 5,ooo yard masterpiece two years before but get this… He was still 3rd in yards passing, 2nd in touchdowns thrown while leading the league in completion percentage at 68.1%.  Even in the 41-36 playoff upset loss to the Seattle Seahawks he was forced to hoist 60 passes. Far too many.  He completed 33 for 404 yards and he was masterful in that game throwing no interceptions.  He now ranks 1st in every Saints  career passing category: yards, completions, attempts and touchdown passes.

What hasn’t been showcased is how to get the best of Drew Brees as a defense.  Even last season he threw several interceptions late in games when he was forced to take chances.  Sean Payton has constructed a passing game that gets the ball out of Brees hands the instant his back foot hits the turf.  They make great use of 3 and 5 step drops and bubble screens to get the jump on opposing defenses.

Teams may be better suited to come up and press his receivers and send overload blitzes at him because the way the rules are now, he’s going to go up the field throwing 5 to 6 yard throws.  Send a series of zone blitzes and overload blitzes to rough him up seems like the only way. Otherwise its basketball on grass and you won’t stop him.  He is in his prime and barring catastrophy should have another 5 years left in him.  Without question quarterback is Super Bowl quality in New Orleans.

Offensive Backfield: After being derailed by backfield injuries, the Saints pulled the second biggest coup of the 2011 draft landing Heisman winner Mark Ingram from Alabama.  They stole a lot of thunder being made on draft day by their NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, for trading up for Julio Jones, Ingram’s teammate from the 2009 National Championship team.  This solves a tremendous problem the Saints have had for several years now: running consistently tough between the tackles.

Many think Ingram is a “can’t miss” running back and an Emmitt Smith clone.  A patient runner with short choppy steps who runs with a low pad level to prevent him from fumbling while powering forward for the tough yards.  He had a few injuries in his senior season where he rushed for 875 yards, yet dazzled in his Heisman season where he ran for 1,658 yards and 17 TDs.  The running back position in the NFL is not a position where a player grows into it. All great running backs have their best years in the first three.  Running the football, Ingram will prove to be a fit immediately.

Speaking of a fit, time to talk about a running back who doesn’t. This should spell the end for Reggie Bush who couldn’t make it work in the pros unless he was in space. A bust with a few splash plays per year doesn’t merit the $11 million he is scheduled to make this season.  He has had some impact on special teams but face it, his 36 carries for 150 yards rushing and 34 rec. for 208 yards for a combined 2 TDs is nowhere close to enough. After Mike Bell departed for Cleveland, the rushing game was turned over to Chris Ivory, who led the Saints with 716 yards, and Pierre Thomas who gained 269 more.

Yet each proved unable to handle the pounding and the Saints had to bring in former Dallas Cowboy Julius Jones off the streets to man the backfield in the playoff loss to the Seahawks.  These backs just couldn’t stay on the field and when they were, the offense couldn’t sustain drives which caused team wide problems. Having to pass so much led to being unable to control the clock which put an undersized defense on the field too much. (See early 90’s Buffalo Bills) Its a systemic solution that one solid running back, in Mark Ingram, should  solve.  At running back the Saints leaped back to very good. He can also power the ball from in tight and the Saints should improve on 9 rushing TDs.

Receivers: The beneficiaries to all this passing is a receiving corp devoid of stars yet are solid intermediate receivers.  Marques Colston led the way with 84 rec. for 1,023 yards and 7 TDs followed by Lance Moore’s 66 receptions for 763 yards with a team leading 8 touchdowns.  What is unique is Colston, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem are the same type of receiver, tall, rangy and they play relatively slow.  Its Brees throwing the ball on time that makes this receiving corp look better than it is.

Yet Moore is quick and darts in and out of small cracks to gain 40 first downs out of his 66 catches. He and Colston  each made 1st downs on their receptions 60% and 67% of the time respectively.  This team runs the bubble screen as affective as any team in football.  This was an extension of their running game in 2010.

Yet this group is slow and defenses should press this group more. Teams are playing so fearful of Brees that they immediately drop into zones when this team has no burners on it.  Defense this receiving corps with combo coverages on their slot players and get physical with your corners on slower receivers and make Brees throw out of rhythm. This pressure on the receivers would make Brees pump fake and pull the ball down allowing your pass rush extra time to sack him.

Looks like the Saints will be moving on at tight end going with Jimmy Graham as Jeremy Shockey’s successor. Their numbers were nearly identical yet Graham reached the endzone 5 times to Shockey’s 3 yet this is a salary cap issue. They get to maintain that production while paying less and thats the NFL we follow now.  Receiver is serviceable to good in the Crescent City.

Offensive Line: In the words of Vince Lombardi, football is always going to be a game of blocking and tackling.  Well this offensive line had some issues with the blocking side of that equation. This team only rushed for 1,519 yards (28th) yet averaged 4.0 yards per attempt yet had problems pushing into the endzone when the team drove down close.  The 9 rushing touchdowns (28th) this team scored is evidence of that. What is unique is between the 20s this team ran off right tackle and gained first downs 67 times which ranked 9th.  You would think that would translate down at the goal line. Puzzling.

The Saints passing statistics from a line standpoint are mixed.  One of the aspects of Sean Payton’s playbook is for Brees to get the ball out quickly with 3 and 5 step drops.  The Saints were 5th lowest in sacks allowing 26th and were ranked 11th in allowing Brees to be hit 67 times.  They need to improve on their pass protection with the Buccaneers building a strong defensive front as a division opponent and the Panthers will be building a defense under former defensive co-ordinator and current Head Coach Ron Rivera.

Teams will be coming after Brees and if he is injured the Saints would be in trouble.  The New Orleans front did have a pro bowl performer in LG Carl Nicks out of Nebraska. This line is average to below average…just doesn’t get the push when close to the goal line and those passing numbers are high for a team that throws from short quarterback drop backs.

Defensive Line: This line had a fair year yet needs some help. Of the 33 sacks the Saints collected, 21.5 came from a committee of 7 linemen with none totalling more than DT Sedrick Ellis’ 6.  Will Smith needs to stop acting and rapping and get after the damn quarterback.  His sack total of 5.5 doesn’t cut it for a former first round draft pick and is down from 13.5 from the year before. In defensive co-ordinator Greg Williams scheme, DEs are to get after the quarterback and check on the run on their way there.

This is the system Jevon Kearse broke in with. So come on Smith, get after it. The Saints spent their1st round draft pick for the services of Cal DE Cameron Jordan to help bolster the pass rush. At 6’4, 287lbs he has the size and wingspan to rush in the pros.  His father Steve Jordan was a pro bowl tight end with the Minnesota Vikings in the 80s and 90s so the athletic pedigree is there.  They also drafted Greg Romeus out of Pitt to help get after the passer. Veteran DE Alex Brown may be the odd man out.

If the Saints want to regain the NFC South crown one thing they need to do is play a little more stout up front against the run.  This team was 16th against the rush and gave up a mediocre 4.3 yards per attempt. At times this line was shoved into the linebacker and the safeties faces. With big running backs to face in the division with Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Tampa Bay’s Blount, and Carolina’s Jonathon Stewart / DeAngelo Williams combo, this has to be a priority. Surprisingly they didn’t draft a DT, yet right before the lockout they picked up Shaun Rogers, former Cleveland Brown, to help hold the middle.  At 6’3 350 lbs he should eat up blockers and allow Vilma, and Shanle to make plays. Defensive front is slightly below average and they should get another DT when free agency opens up.

Linebackers: The anchor of this defense is Pro Bowl MLB Jonathon Vilma out of the University of Miami.  He led the team with 107 tackles, had 4 sacks and forced 3 fumbles. He’s instinctive and quick yet at 230 lbs can be engulfed by blockers so its imperative the DT play improves.  Scott Shanle (76 tackles) and Danny Clark (59 tackles) are the starters on the outside. They’re solid tacklers yet rarely make big hits or splash plays.

Between the two of them there wasn’t a sack or interception turned in all year…and they still haven’t tackled Marshawn Lynch.  Saint’s brass must be in agreeance with us since they spent two draft picks here on Illinois linebackers Martez Wilson and Nate Bussey in the 3rd and 7th rounds respectively.

Linebacker is below average thanks to the outside ‘backer play.  This group needs to force more turnovers and its puzzling that they don’t since they play pretty fast.

Secondary: When a pass rush can’t get to the quarterback, the play that is most affected will be that of the secondary. The starting quartet only pulled in 5 interceptions among them.  Former Buckeyes Malcolm Jenkins and Jabari Greer each had two interceptions.  The secondary missed the veteran play of Darren Sharper at free safety, however Jenkins is a converted corner and should grow with the position.  Its a good thing SS Roman Harper likes to tackle, he gets many shots at it. Not only did he make the pro bowl in 2010, he was second on the team with 94 tackles, had 3 sacks, and forced 6 fumbles. Thats a tremendous performance.

Tracy Porter only had 1 interception in 2010 while defending 6 passes.  This is as solid a secondary as the NFC South offers.  It rates better than what is shown statistically.  Once the pass rush resumes, this team will pick off more passes.  Porter in particular since Will Smith is on the same side.

It sounds like we’re piling on Smith but one of the recipes for interceptions is for quarterbacks too throw over a disruptive, tall pass rusher. If you can’t get to the quarterback, at least get your hands up.  This is how Lester Hayes once picked off 13 passes in a season behind a 6’8 Ted Hendricks, and an Everson Walls snatched 11 the next year behind a 6’9 “Too Tall” Jones.  Smith did deflect 5 passes last year so keep watching.

Overall: This is going  to be an interesting year for the Saints.  Drew Brees enjoys being one of the faces of the league, will he turn around and hand the ball off to Mark Ingram as much as he should??  Brees like any other good athlete has an ego.  This will be a good watch to see what he audibles to and how he responds if his rhythm is thrown off with a more balanced attack.  Will Ingram fit into the passing game well enough so they can have him as an every down back? If he is platooned, the Saints could suffer from the syndrome that affected the Dallas Cowboys last year.

They telegraphed what they were going to run based on which running back was in there.  Defenses would get the jump on them. We’re still unsure at Taylor Blitz Times if they did enough on the defensive front to solidify themselves against the run.  We see a mixed year coming up with a record of 9-7 to 10-6 and another wild card berth.

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Word count: 1256 Last edited by jeftaylor on May 20, 2011 at 12:00 pm

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2011 Detroit Lions Preview

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A look back at last football season for this team and the question that lingers is: What would have happened had Calvin Johnson’s 4th quarter touchdown stood in week 1 at Chicago? Would that early season win served as a launching pad for the 2010 Lions?  After a season in which the Lions made strides on both sides of the ball, they came through with the best draft in all of pro football.  The coup to land Auburn DT Nick Fairley to team with Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch sent shockwaves throughout the league. Fellow draft picks Titus Young, an explosive receiver from Boise St., and tough RB Mike Leshoure give the Lions three picks that should contribute immediately.  This is a spirited young team that learned it could be competitive and they are growing before our eyes.  Circled is the week 5 matchup where they host Chicago with their first Monday Night game in many years.  Will this matchup with Chicago serve as a launching pad?

Quarterback:  The key to the Lions playoff push is the health of Matthew Stafford. He’s shown improvement and earned a degree of respect from his team when he came in with a separated shoulder to throw for the winning score against Cleveland.  Yet he has shown a penchant for injury and this is the year he has to develop over a complete season to justify his #1 pick and fulfill expectations.  Last year Stafford only started 3 games, yet he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 int.  He was more relaxed in the pocket and looked like a solid leader. His team needs to grow with him during the season for the Lions to take that next step.

In Stafford’s absence, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton played solidly with Hill starting 10 games and Stanton 3. Hill actually had the highest completion percentage of the three QBs with 61.8% while throwing for 16TDs to 12 interceptions.  Yet at 30 yrs of age, this is the zenith of what we can expect from him.  He’s a serviceable backup who can step in. However it was when Drew Stanton (formerly of Michigan St) played that the team seemed to show real spirit.  His mobility was showcased when the pocket breaks down running for 118 yards and 1 TD. In fact of the 6 wins in 2010: 3 happened when Hill started, 1 with Stafford, and 2 with Stanton.  Stanton’s growth completing 58% of his passes for 4TDs to 3ints, while being 5 years younger, could make Hill trade bait. We saw how Lions players rallied around him when he played.  The quarterback position is average yet growing in Motown.

Offensive Backfield: Last year’s selection of Jahvid Best turned out to be a good one.  Not for last year’s rushing performance (555yds / 3.2 avg.) but for his receiving totals.  His 58 receptions for 487 yards out of the backfield included a 75 yard touchdown.  Thats a whopping 8.4 yards per reception.  He isn’t an every down back and his average shows he is best as a change of pace back.  Once he doesn’t take a starter’s pounding, he will be that much more explosive out of the backfield.  Maurice Morris is more solid between the tackles yet lacks homerun punch.  His rushing average of 3.7 was stronger than Best’s but again showcases he is a ball carrier, not a top shelf runner that can make things happen. Morris is better suited as a backup.

Enter draft pick Mikel Leshoure from Illinois, who may be the best fit for his team than any running back drafted this year. At 6’0, 227lbs, he offers the power between the tackles that the Lions have been missing, and should move Best to a 3rd down role. He is more explosive than Morris and with teams worried about the passing game; there should be openings for Leshoure to be a splash player this year.  He ran for nearly 1,700 yards in his final collegiate season and could be a 1,000 yard rusher as a rookie.  The Lions backfield projects to good

Receivers:  Entering his 5th year, Calvin “Megatron” Johnson is in his prime and was the Lions lone offensive pro bowl performer in 2011.  His 77 receptions for 1,120 yards for 12 TDs ranked him in the top 20 in all 3 categories.  His 12 TDs receiving was second in the league.  This was enough for his peers to vote him into the Pro Bowl with a top tier performance while working with multiple quarterbacks.  With a healthy Stafford all year, it would be easy to see his numbers grow to 90 -100 receptions for 1,500 yards, he’s that talented! At 6’6 and 235 lbs. while running a sub 4.4 / 40, he is as lethal a receiver that has come into the NFL since Randy Moss in 1998.  Up until now he has needed some help.

Even “Megatron” has to have a “Starscream.”  That help may have arrived with the Lions second pick in Boise St’s WR Titus Young.  A 5’11, 175 lbs. burner with 4.3 / 40 speed, he should add further vertical explosion to an offense to dependent on Johnson making the big play in the passing game.  Nate Burleson is a good intermediate receiver and has been serviceable; Young gives Detroit the home run threat on both sides.  This should be Detroit’s best 1-2 punch at receiver since Herman Moore and Brett Perriman (twin 100 reception receivers in 1995). This team could be the NFC’s most explosive offense fielding 3 weapons with 4.3 speed in Johnson, Best, and Young.  Look out! Titus also is an excellent kick returner.

Rounding out Detroit’s receiving corp. is the prize of the 2009 draft in Oklahoma St’s Brandon Pettigrew. (Tim Evans) Last year the big tight end made strides in his play, doubling his catch totals, receiving yards and touchdowns. Oh, you wanted numbers…well he caught 71 passes for 722 yards and caught 4 touchdowns. Pettigrew can stretch the middle and is a mismatch for linebackers and at 6’5, 257 lbs. is growing into too much man for most strong safeties.

With all this speed and the three main receivers having 5 years or less service, the NFC North had better draft some secondary speed.  Stafford stays healthy and develops over a season with this group, team passing records could fall.  At receiver this team could be frightening.  Receiver in Detroit is good with a chance to be beyond pro bowl caliber as a group.

Offensive Line:  This team needs more punch on the right side.  RG Stephen Peterman and RT Gosder Cherilus only led to 20 rushing first downs and had 23 negative running plays.  On the strong side with a right handed quarterback? Those need to be dramatically improved and this team ran a lot of draws and counters to offset that weakness. Now running to the weakside produced 46 1st downs, over 24 rushing plays that gained 10 or more yards and anchored the quarterback protection.  Those rushing totals need to be reversed as the team was 23rd in rushing with 1,613 yards and only had 11TDs. They need Leshoure to come through to aid here.

Although Matt Stafford has been knocked from action on several occasions, this OLine has actually given up the 6th fewest sacks last year with 27.  Detroit QBs were hit on 64 different drop backs which ranked 10th.  This may be where the move to a more mobile Drew Stanton to the second string position at QB could prove beneficial if Stafford is to go down for any significant time.  The offensive line is slightly above average but needs to improve driving teams off the ball.  They could use a free agent acquisition to provide some competition on the right side.

Defensive Line:  By far the surprise of the 2011 draft was landing Auburn DT Nick Fairley. You could feel the collective gasp of the NFL when the selection was announced in Radio City Music Hall. The realization that Fairley, who should have went #1 or at least top 5, fell to a team who fielded arguably the best rookie defensive lineman in NFL history in Ndamukong Suh. Wow!  All Suh did was amass 66 tackles, had 1 interception, and forced a fumble with his 10 sacks. At defensive tackle? Yikes! He was runaway NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowl starter.  His motor and attitude was just what the Lions need to make a turnaround and should rub off positively on Fairley.

When we last saw Fairley, he was busy wreaking havoc in the Oregon backfield during the Tostitos National Championship Game.  He was the most dominant player on the field in that game and next to Heisman winner Cam Newton was the best player in the SEC.  He plays with the perfect degree of nastiness in a defensive player, right on the edge.  While it has led to a few penalties, it’s also led to him completely taking over games.  His experience in playing at a high level in big games like the SEC Championship and National Championship Games will go a long way in the overall maturation of a Lions team trying to achieve the playoffs. Along with the added incentive of wanting to play hard against the teams that didn’t select him, his maturing, and having the perfect running mate in Suh, should terrorize the NFC North for the next 5-7 years easy barring injury.

Forgotten in this mix is the leadership and toughness of returning DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. He may turn into a double digit sack performer with so much attention on the twin DTs.  In 11 games last year he only had 33 tackles and 4 sacks.  Bosch is a work out fiend who should come into this season in terrific shape, thanks to the lockout extending time where his 32 yr old body won’t have to take hits through the summer. Other quarterback hunters on the team totaled 19.5 sacks with LDE Cliff Avril leading the way with 8.5 despite missing 3 games. The Lions amassed a mind boggling 44 sacks, which ranked 6th in the NFL, a tremendous amount for a team that rarely held leads. They should improve on their rankings of 21st on defense, 24th against the run starting with this young defensive line.  NFC North, watch out! With Suh in year 2, Fairley in year 1, and Avril in year 3, they will only improve. Defensive line is superior with the Lions.

Linebackers: This is where a free agent pick up could go a long way to make this a top ten defense. Play here is steady but not spectacular.  Julian Peterson last year was 2nd on the team with 57 tackles yet didn’t force a fumble or intercept a pass. That isn’t enough with that much pressure being generated up front. MLB DeAndre Levy, who missed 5 games, combined with his backup Ashley Palmer for 83 tackles. Levy did pick off 2 passes and Palmer forced 3 fumbles, so they have made some plays.  Sam linebacker Landon Johnson was 11th on the team in tackles behind ALL of Detroit’s secondary?  Terrible! At the strong side he has to shed blocks of the TE and make more plays than that. Olsen in Chicago, Shiancoe in Minnesota, and JerMichael Finley in Green Bay are more pass receiving tight ends than massive blockers and he has to play better. This group needs help on the outside and needs to make plays.  Maybe the addition of 5th round pick Douglas Hogue can help.  Linebacker is below average and this lockout could keep the Lions from getting that key free agent acquisition.

Secondary:  Louis Delmas at FS led the Lions in tackles with 62 tackles and 2 forced fumbles yet didn’t intercept a pass all year…all year! With that much pressure up front? Clearly his ball hawking skills have to improve. Going into his 3rd year he has to show improvement against the pass or they should move him to SS since he is willing to tackle. SS Amari Spivey should have made a higher amount of tackles than 33 yet we will attribute that to being a rookie.  He did have 2 interceptions on the season which ranked 2nd on the team.  First on the team was CB Alphonso Smith with 5, yet the other corners, Chris Houston, and Nathan Vasher, only had 1 a piece.

Part of this problem is the defense is playing too much cover 2 zone and need to mix their coverages more.  Although one of their better performances came in the late season upset of the Green Bay Packers in week 14.  They held the Super Bowl champions to only 3 points while smothering Aaron Rodgers targets. Youthful and with some improvement could get another 10 interceptions across the board. Secondary is slightly below average.

Overall: This team is coming in with a 4 game winning streak to end the season.  It started with the upset of the Packers and then the 10 win Buccaneers. They proved to themselves that they can play with anyone and with the new additions should win 10 games in the upcoming season.  With Minnesota in flux after the retirement of Brett Favre and the Bears not really improving their offense, this is the year the Lions should find their way to the postseason.  This roster is youthful and improvement should come from many positions.  First off they are playing with a tremendous chip on their shoulder where Titus Young’s underdog Boise St attitude, and Nick Fairley’s wanting to “show other teams what they passed on” attitude will further foster.  The excitement that this team finished with has only heightened with a great draft.

In the free agency era the formula for a team rising from the ashes starts with a good finish the year before. Notably the ’98 Falcons finishing 6-2 in ‘97 before a surprise Super Bowl run, ’99 Ravens finishing 6-2 before a Super Bowl run in ‘00, and the ’03 Bengals finishing 7-4 before a playoff run in ’04, and even the “99 Eagles winning their last two games includng a victory over the eventual champion St. Louis Rams.  (just to name a few)   . This team can see that type of turnaround with a little bit of luck.  That week 5 Monday Night Game hosting Chicago should be a coming out party. The league had better get ready.

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Next Up: New Orleans Saints

Sterling Sharpe Belongs In The Hall of Fame

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As those in and Packerland celebrate the team’s 13th championship in NFL history, the mind travels back to when Green Bay was the desolate outpost that few players wanted to go to.  The team had a celebrated past yet the years after Vince Lombardi’s team won Super Bowl II were lean with very few postseason appearances.

Everyone points to the hiring of GM Ron Wolf  or Mike Holmgren, or Reggie White’s free agent signing in 1993, or even Brett Favre being picked up in 1992 as the first step in the team returning to prominence.  Each were significant but weren’t the first step.  That distinction belongs to former All Pro receiver Sterling Sharpe who became the preeminent receiver of his time and was outplaying the legendary Jerry Rice at the time of his forced retirement because of a neck injury.

The Packers selected Sharpe in the ’88 NFL Draft and he played for 7 seasons. During that time he would go on to produce….nope not going to tell the story in that fashion. This was Terrell Owens before Terrell Owens meaning he would run over cornerbacks who tried to jam him or tackle him on slants.  I can still see the touchdown in ’92 when he drug CB Darryl Henley and half the LA Rams secondary into the endzone from the 5 yard line, knocking out Safety Pat Terrell in the process.

In an era where receivers were sleek, run and shoot quick guys like Earnest Givins, Drew Hill, & Andre Rison as the preferred types.  Michael Irvin and Sterling Sharpe were breaking in a new mold later carried on by Detroit’s Herman Moore and Minnesota’s Cris Carter.  The muscular intermediate receiver who were physical with cornerbacks then would slip by them for 40 yard gains later in the game once they beat up on them a bit.

Sterling started rather slow with a 55 catch rookie season where he only scored 1 touchdown and vowed to improve his approach to the game.  He felt the media was harsh in how they treated him and nearly went the rest of his career without granting an interview…well almost.  In 1989 he burst onto the national scene with 90 receptions for 1,423 yards and 12 TDs, earning the first of his 5 Pro Bowl and All Pro appearances.

He teamed with Don Majkowski to power The Pack to a stellar record of 10-6 which included a late season win over the World Champion 49ers in Candlestick.  He became the focal point of Head Coach Lindy Infante’s offense and gave the Packers a legitimate star to help attract Plan B free agents. Sharpe went on to Pro Bowl and All Pro status in the 1990, 1992-1994 seasons.

The greatness of this talent was showcased in 1992, he had to learn a new offense from a new coach in Mike Holmgren and during the third game learn to play with first time starter Brett Favre. How did he perform?

Well he went on to break Art Monk’s all time NFL record of 106 catches in a season, going for 108.  He totaled a career high 1,461 yards and scored another 13 TDs.  Sharpe won the triple crown as he led the NFL in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in 1992 which is amazing considering the coach & quarterback scenario.

Think about it for a sec… Jerry Rice’s most prolific years were 1987 and 1995 where he totaled 22 TDs receiving (87) and 122 catches / 1,808 yards gained in 1995.  These were achieved with league MVPs & Super Bowl MVPs Joe Montana and Steve Young in their 8th and 5th seasons as starters respectively. So naturally he would get better in the ensuing years with a new system in place right?

In 1993, his second year in Holmgren’s system, he broke his previous All Time NFL record of 108 catches going for 112 rec., 1,274 yard and 11TDs.  He also introduced “turf toe” as an injury to the sporting world lexicon which was a dislocated large toe basically.  The painful injury not only kept him from practicing ALL YEAR, he had to wear a shoe 1 1/2 sizes larger on the foot with the injury. What would he have done had he been able to hone his pass routes in practice?

sterling-sharpe-record-glovesThe Packers went 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wild card.  They played their division rival Detroit Lions in the Silverdome and Sharpe electrified with a 5 rec., 101 yd 3TD performance.  His 3TD receptions tied the NFL All-Time Post season record which still stands.  The last of which (pictured above) was a 40 yard TD from Favre with less than a minute to play.  Not bad for his first playoff game huh? It was a day so interesting and exciting that he broke his 5 year boycott of granting interviews and spoke at the post game press conference.

The next week the Packers lost to the world champion Dallas Cowboys 27-17 yet Sharpe caught 6 passes for 128 yards and 1 TD.  He showed he was a prime time performer even in the postseason.  He had led the league in receptions in back to back years and was still improving with a young up and coming quarterback.  What more could the future hold?

Yet 1994 proved to be the last season in the NFL for Sterling Sharpe. A promising career cut short with a serious neck injury that robbed us of viewing the best receiver in the league at the time. Really? Yes really! Sharpe went out with a bang. In ’94 he amassed 94 rec. for 1,119 yards and an astounding 18 touchdowns.

The 18 receiving TDs were the second most in NFL history (at that time) tying the old all time record with Mark Clayton (who did it in ’84) and who ironically was Sharpe’s teammate in ’93.  Along the way there was a much ballyhooed showdown on Thanksgiving in Dallas to show the nation Sharpe and the Packers had arrived.  They lost 42-31, but again Sharpe dazzled the nation with a 9 rec. 122 yards and 4 TDs on the league’s #1 defense,  totally outperforming counterpart Michael Irvin.  Both players, along with Andre Rison, battled Jerry Rice in the stat sheets for league supremacy at receiver in the early 90’s.  However Sharpe missed the playoff rematch and retired after the season.

Sterling Sharpe left the game after 7 super productive seasons with 595 rec. for 8,134 yards and 65 TDs which doesn’t truly paint the full picture. In his last 3 years he caught 314 passes for 3,854 yards and 42 TDs averaging 104 receptions per season. At that rate over 3 more seasons he would have crossed 900 catches for almost 12,000 yards and 107 TDs which he easily would have done.  How do we know this? Brett Favre’s next three years in ’95,’96, and ’97, not only was he league MVP all 3 years, he threw for 38, 39 and 35TDs in those seasons.

Those three seasons the Packers lost the NFC Championshp Game in ’95 yet made the Super Bowl the next two years. It’s a shame that the team he led back to NFL prominence would go on to be league champion without him.  Ironically his brother Shannon gave him his first Super Bowl ring when the Broncos defeated the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII, citing Sterling as his greatest male influence.

How do you gauge impact? Well you need to ask yourself a few questions.  In 1992 Mike Holmgren was the hottest coaching commodity when the Vikings, Steelers, and Packers were vying for his services.  Seeing that Holmgren wanted to install his “west coast offense”, don’t you think Green Bay won out by having Sterling Sharpe as his Jerry Rice already in tow to play his “Z” receiver?  What happens if the star receiver wasn’t on hand to aid a nervous young Brett Favre, allowing him to gain confidence?

If he would have struggled, Don Majkowski gets his job back 7 weeks later and we may never have known of Brett… think about it. Favre only became the NFL’s all time quarterback in ….well everything. In fact it was Sharpe who got Favre rolling in his first start against Pittsburgh absolutely scorching Rod Woodson on a stutter-go 76 yard touchdown to settle Favre down.  Without Sterling Sharpe, NFL history and certainly Green Bay Packers history would have been altered drastically.

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This was a talent that blocked in the running game and didn’t dance in the endzone when he did score.  He didn’t jump up signaling first down when he made a catch.  He was the absolute antithesis of the “me” receiver that has overtaken the league over the last 20 years.  After Charlie Hennigan in 1961 ( 101 rec. /AFL’s Houston Oilers), Art Monk in ’84 (106 rec. / Washington Redskins), and ’90 Jerry Rice (100 rec. / San Fran 49ers) it was Sharpe who made the 100 catch season a staple in league totals, going for 108 receptions then 112 the following year.

The fact that he didn’t self promote on every television camera he saw yet isn’t in the Hall of Fame, may give way to why we see receivers that do.  Gale Sayers isn’t the only great player to have his career cut short by injury so Sharpe needs to be more than considered.  His play and on field conduct was a celebration of how and why football is played and loved by millions.

Please lend your thoughts as well by writing in to the Pro Football Hall of Fame to the address below. Please be respectful and positively lend your voice:

Please write & nominate #84
Send letters to:
Pro Football Hall of Fame
Attention: Senior Selection Committee
2121 George Halas Dr NW, Canton, 
OH 44708

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corey harris

Is Mike Shanahan Overrated??

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Too often we give a coach or player a pass for bad decisions because they have won a championship.  Look at how Mike Shanahan is handling the Donovan McNabb situation in Washington.  This is a quarterback he hand selected then traded for.  He benches him for Rex Grossman,whom the Chicago Bears deemed expendable for single handedly losing a Super Bowl and regressing.  What is he doing? Is there a psychological edge to what he’s doing?

No this is an ego-maniac who fell in love with his genius mantle and is personally  affronting McNabb with benching him and embarrassing him.  You know what? We’ve seen this before…

Mike Shanahan is one of a long list of coaches who fell into some good situations and were given more credit than they really deserved.  He was the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos when John  Elway led them to the Super Bowl yet this was a Hall of Fame talent already in tow.  What is missed during those years is everyone forgets that the 1986 Denver Broncos were #1 in the AFC in defense and were highly ranked in 1987.

We tend to forget that when we remember those defenses collapsing in the Super Bowl against the Giants, Redskins, and 49ers respectively. When he finally was given a head coaching job with the Los Angeles Raiders, his results were terrible.  He had a losing record (8-12) and was fired mid season.  Funny thing is 1 1/2 years later Art Shell had those same Los Angeles Raiders in the 1990 AFC Championship Game in Buffalo playing for the right to go to Super Bowl XXV. So don’t sell me on his expertise.

Here is where it gets interesting.  The San Francisco 49ers offensive plays, playbook, and ALL training sessions were all on video for the incoming offensive coordinator.   From Bill Walsh on down.  There was no serious input and you HAD to learn how the 49ers ran their offense period to be hired as a coordinator.  So when Mike Holmgren was hired away to be the Green Bay Packers head coach, Shanahan was hired on and had to learn their system.

Holmgren had just led the 1988 & 1989 Super Bowl champion’s powerful offense.  Throw in the 14-2 1990 season where the 49ers made the NFC Championship Game, and then in ’91 they again had the #1 offense although Joe Montana and Steve Young missed significant playing time.  So when they hired Shanahan in 1992 the 49er offense was already a juggernaut.  They ranked highly through the Super Bowl XXIX triumph that made it seem as though Shanahan was some genius when he ran what was already in place in deployment and personnel.

Now we know he inherited Hall of Famer John Elway when he became head coach of the Denver Broncos in 1995.  By a twist of luck they had Terrell Davis develop as a running back.  He installed a running offense and signed a ton of defensive free agents to fortify the defense and he was rewarded with back to back Super Bowls.  He coached well and had the pulse of his team along with defensive coordinator Greg Robinson.

Yet for all his offensive acumen he hasn’t developed his own quarterback having inherited Steve Young and John Elway. He drafted Brian Griese in 1998 and that didn’t work out as well as Bronco fans would have hoped.  He traded away for Jake Plummer who did play good enough to help the Broncos to the 2005 AFC Championship, yet they were upset at home. From 1999-2005, a 7 year period,  he only won 1 playoff game after the retirement of John Elway.

With the help of Alex Gibbs zone blocking schemes the Broncos did provide many a 1,000 yard rusher starting with Terrell Davis. Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary were surprising 1,000 yard rushers in Davis’ absent to knee injuries that derailed a Hall of Fame career.

Then with the 2002 NFL Draft, the Broncos nabbed Clinton Portis off of the NCAA Champion Miami Hurricanes.  Clinton seemed he would be a serviceable back although he had an outspoken personality.  What happened?? Clinton Porits turned out to be the most prolific back, for their first two years,  in the history of the Denver Broncos.

Where Terrell Davis rushed for 1,117 and 1,538 yards his first two seasons, Portis burst onto the scene to the tune of 1,508 and 1,591 yards. Portis also scored 29TDs to Davis 20TDs while garnering the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year for 2002 and setting an NFL record of averaging 5.5 yards per carry for his first two years.  He also became the youngest player in league history to have a 5 TD game and was a rising star.

So did he build another champion around a talented running back? Nope. He traded away one of history’s most prolific backs for CB Champ Bailey.  Not only did the Broncos not improve on their defensive statistics in terms of touchdowns given up, guess what happened with their star cornerback in tow??

The ’04 AFC Wildcard Tilt saw Peyton Manning throw for the most yards EVER in the playoffs for a non overtime game with 457 yards passing while losing 49-24.  Now thats genius!! The record is Bernie Kosar [The U] who threw for 489 yards in a double overtime victory over the Jets in the 1986 divisional round.  Peyton almost did that in 4 quarters. Yikes!

So where did the genius mantle come from?  He did win 2 straight Super Bowls with the NFL’s all time winningest (at the time) quarterback in John Elway, but where is the other developed talent?  Where is the other quarterback he’s groomed into an elite passer whether we are talking about Brian Griese or even Jake Plummer??

So now here we are with his on again off again mistreatment of Donovan McNabb. He won’t give him a vote of confidence in being the starter yet this lockout is keeping him from trading Donovan.  Shanahan is the same coach who put McNabb in the news signing him to a huge contract extension only to bench him two weeks later. Lets face it the re-signing was only to back-load the contract money to years McNabb would not see.  For a reason that has not been introduced to us this seems to have gone into the realm of the personal.

Once you look at the body of work, I don’t see an elite coach.  I see an old coach who is achieving what he always has: marginal years with a couple playoff years.  Doesn’t really develop any of the talent he drafts and is callous to many of his players.  Rod Smith and Terrell Davis the notable exceptions.

I think the sand is out of his hour glass and he won’t be coach of the Redskins after this season with a sub-par performance.  I would like to word things differently Redskin fans but I call them like I see them. He is overrated and past his prime.  The Albert Haynesworth debacle withstanding, what has he really done in Washington? Its hard to see the present situation with Donovan McNabb as anything other than personal.  Now the NFL lockout is keeping McNabb in place to prolong the agony which is unfortunate.

2011 Indianapolis Colts Preview

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Even though it doesn’t feel like it, the Colts had a successful season.  After coming up short in Super Bowl XLIV, they did come back and win the AFC South and battled until the bitter end:  a wild card loss to the New York Jets.  Peyton Manning masked so many deficiencies that the Colts were convinced they were formidable, yet a closer look reveals a pro football team that needs to be rebuilt.  The Colts won 115 games in the decade of the 2000s and the constant low picks have loaded the roster with decent talent, not top shelf talent.  Once injuries hit this group, a legitimate chance at returning to the Super Bowl was reduced to that of a puncher’s chance.  The Colts held off the rest of the AFC South last year but lets face it the entire division regressed or imploded.  Can they stave off the Houston Texans who seem to be the heir apparent in becoming the division’s most dominant team??

Qarterback: The Colts trigger -man going into his 15th season is one of the league’s elder statesmen in Peyton Manning.  We forget to think of him in terms of tenure until you realize that in Manning’s rookie season he was handing the ball off to Marshall Faulk before being traded and the Greatest Show on Turf was even in existence.  Yet here we are with Faulk retired and elected to the Hall of Fame and Manning is still throwing bombs in Indianapolis.  Last year Manning had to institute a short passing game to offset the Colts inability to run consistently and had a good year.  Throwing for 450 completions on 679 attempts for 4,700 yards, 33TDs and 17 interceptions was good enough for 10th with a 91.9 rating.  His ability to audible and read what a defenses true intentions were have aided the offensive line and he was only sacked 16 times.  He led the league in completions and attempts while ranking second behind Drew Brees in completion percentage with 66.3%.   All things must come to an end and how long can Manning continue to play at such a high level?

So what is the book on defending Peyton Manning? Many teams have tried and had success in disguising their intentions until under 10 seconds left in the play clock and then sending exotic blitzes at him.  Thus robbing the QB of adequate time to audible.  Defenders are jumping on the short routes without any Colts burners to throw the ball deep to.  The Ravens and Jets have carried on this approach against Manning after the Patriots used it for much of the decade of the 2000s to deny him Super Bowl trips.  If you can get some hits on Manning early, he will get happy feet and uncharacteristically will force a throw.  He relies on the receivers having the same sight adjustments and occasionally has to take the gamble that his receiver will get there.  See the Tracy Porter interception that sealed the Colts fate in Super Bowl XLIV against the Saints as evidence of this.

That withstanding,  he is a future Hall of Famer and has a couple years left in his prime before he sees his skills diminish any.  Right now he is the only serious weapon in the Colts arsenal.  Can he play well enough that he can continue to mask the team’s other deficiencies?  The window may have closed on that….Still Super Bowl quality at quarterback in Indy.

Offensive Backfield: Remember the perennial 1,000 yard seasons from Edgerrin James (The U) that gave the Colts a formidable rushing attack?? Seems like a distant memory now that for the last several seasons its been a committee carrying the load in Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes, Mike Hart, and Donald Brown out of UConn.  This group underperformed in 2010 and thrust the pressure onto the passing game.  Colts backs rushed for a total of 1,440 yards on 383 carries for an average of 3.7 yards where league average is 4.0.  Not good enough.

This group couldn’t stay on the field and were bitten by the injury bug repeatedly during the season.  Starter Joseph Addai may be better served as a change of pace running back.  He doesn’t seem to have the heft to take the pounding of an every down back and has missed games during the last few seasons.  However he averaged 4.3 yds on his carries gaining 495 yards during the 2010 campaign.  If he were spelling another back these would be satisfactory numbers.  As a lead back this isn’t enough seeing that others had to carry the load on the other 267 Colt rushing attempts.  Going into his 6th season he looks like injuries are slowing him some and this team needs a Grade A running back to do the heavy lifting.

Donald Brown filled in admirably and ran for 471 yards yet ran in a more mechanical fashion.  He didn’t run as instinctual as he had back at Connecticut and ran up the backs of his blockers, or arrived too early to where the hole was going to be.  He only averaged 3.7 yards on his 126 carries once Addai went down.  He seemed to turn a corner late in the season against Jacksonville when he rushed for a season high 129 yards on 14 carries.  Javarris James, Edgerrin’s nephew, played well as a 3rd down back and rushed for 6 of the Colts 13 rushing touchdowns usually out of passing formations.

We should see the Colts go for their first marquee running back in this months draft since picking Faulk and James two decades ago. This team needs a true every down back that Addai can compliment, who can run with power between the tackles, pick up the blitz, and catch passes out of the backfield.  Everyone has their eyes on Mark Ingram of Alabama but he may not be around in the latter part of the 1st round.  However there are several backs in this year’s draft that should do the trick.  After all he wouldn’t be keyed on with #18 standing next to him to run play action passes anyway. The very success of the Colts 2011 season will wrest on the move they make here.  Need a marquee runner….running back is very below average.

Receiver: On the opposite end of all those throws were Manning’s receivers Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, and TEs Dallas Clark, and Jacob Tamme.  Again injuries were the story at this position also that had Tamme see significent time replacing Clark.  Blair White and Austin Collie emerged with the loss of Anthony Gonzalez and came through with respectable seasons.  White emerged as an up and coming intermediate receiver with 36 catches for 355 yards and 5 touchdowns.  He was a first down maker that Manning threw open on many a third down.  Austin Collie had 58 receptions for 649 yards and came through with 8 touchdowns.  Collie has a tremendous upside and can stretch the middle of the field better than White can.  Each are smaller receivers, better suited to the slot where a bigger corner isn’t able to manhandle them and throw off their routes.  Collie can get deep but can’t quite stretch the field like Anthony Gonzalez could yet injuries robbed him of the 2010 season.

Pierre Garcon had a solid season in 2010 yet will forever be linked to his dropped slant in Super Bowl XLIV that would have sent him off to the races and broken a 17-17 4th quarter deadlock…yet I digress.  He pulled in 67 passes to tie for second on the team with Jacob Tamme and to only outgain the unheralded tight end in yards (784 to 631) and touchdowns (6 to 4) illustrates another receiver who can’t get deep.  Manning is passing into a phone booth and its surprising he didn’t throw for more than 20 interceptions. Garcon is a young version of Wayne in the fact that he is a solid receiver with size and decent speed.

However there is Reggie Wayne, the veteran receiver from Miami who’s numbers are starting to reach those of a player who could receive  Hall of Fame consideration with a few more productive seasons.  The 2010 season wasn’t his most spectacular yet his production was tremendous.  With 111 receptions, 1,355 yards and 6 touchdowns, the successor to Marvin Harrison was the portrait of consistency.  Entering his 11th season, Wayne isn’t a threat to stretch the field beyond 40 yards yet has the moves to get open on most intermediate routes.  Never having blazing speed to begin with he can be caught by younger cornerbacks while the ball is in the air on fly patterns.  He needs to really set up a corner with a jab step to get deep on most corners.  For his career Wayne has gobbled 787 catches for 10,747 yards and 69 touchdowns.  If he duplicates his 2010 season he’ll have 900 catches, 12,000 yards, and will be right on the threshold of joining the likes of Jerry Rice, OSU’s Cris Carter,  and Notre Dame’s Tim Brown with over 1000 catches in their careers. A savvy veteran with another 3 prime years left.

Receiver is average in Indy yet they need a speed receiver to make them good again.  We don’t know how Anthony Gonzalez is going to recover and if any of his speed will be diminished upon his return.   Robert Irsay and the boys may want to think of a bigger receiver with speed also.  Too many smallish receivers that can be thrown around as we saw in last year’s playoff loss to New York.  Teams like the Jets with athletic, physical corners can take away Manning’s outside threats and allow the safety to help in the running game or squeeze off routes less than 25 yards downfield.  They need speed to scare free safeties deep.  A Julio Jones of Alabama could do the trick with their second round pick.

Offensive Line: Its amazing how a playoff loss in microcosm showcases a team’s deficiency that has plagued them all year.  You’ve read the aforementioned facts that this team allowed just 16 sacks for the season while only averaging 3.7 yards per carry rushing the ball.  In that 17-16 loss to the Jets, this line couldn’t sustain the running game for anytime during the game.  On 27 carries the Colts gained just 93 yards for an average of 3.4 yards per carry while being thrown for a loss on 4 of them.  They only allowed 1 sack in the game yet Manning threw the ball away numerous times before the pressure got to him.  Where are we going with this?

Jeff Saturday is an undersized center who made the Pro Bowl and along with fellow lineman LG John Detwiler, LT Charlie Johnson, RG Mike Pollack, and RT Ryan Diem are solid pass blockers who influence block too high to get movement on opposing defenses.  Since they are always in a passing stance this team can’t really get down and make a hole when it needs to.   This team tied for 16th with only 13 rushing touchdowns while only rushing for 28 1st downs all year.  The good new is with a synergy type existence between quarterback and center, the play audibles and blocking audibles have meshed to have Manning sacked the fewest times with 16 and 2nd with being hit with 47.

This line plays too high and depends on influence blocking too much.  Its great to have a Hall of Fame passer but get on the 7 man sled and let this team toughen up by coming off the ball.  We still don’t know if they were adequate in replacing Tarik Glenn at left tackle from a few years back.  His replacement, 5th year pro, Charlie Johnson seems to be holding up.  Yet could you imagine where this line would be without Manning’s alert audibles and checks??  Its still a smallish line that could use some size and draft picks right here.  Offensive Line is average…

Defensive Line: This unit begins with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis as the bookend pass rushers who accounted for 20.5 of the team’s 28 sacks.  These two on turf are lethal and are really the singular reason this team was able to run the “Tampa 2” for so many years.  The pass rush generated by these two allowed the Colts to drop 7 on a majority of the pass plays where they didn’t have to blitz to apply pressure.  Last year we saw Mathis outplay Freeney and finish with 10.5 sacks (team lead) and 59 total tackles which was good enough for 4th.  Are injuries starting to slow down the former All Pro End from Syracuse? He played through some nicks and bruises and had 10 sacks but his meager 23 tackles weren’t enough.  Yet both DEs landed in the Pro Bowl. The Colts may want to put a draft pick here to allow for a situational platoon deployment of Freeney who is undersized anyway.

The DTs Fili Moala and Daniel Muir are going into their 2nd and 4th seasons respectively and need to improve at the point of attack and not allow linemen to get on the smallish Gary Brakckett at MLB.  This is the anchor to the defense and yet without a real strong showing here helped the Colts to an overall ranking of 20th and 21st in 1st downs given up per game with 19.6.  This has to be attributed to a defensive line that needs a bigger anchor in the middle.  Teams have been rushing the football on the Colts for sometime.  A couple defensive picks could be used here to bolster the defensive tackle spots or one to spell Freeney and / or Mathis.  Defensive Line is average at best.

Linebackers: Colt linebackers could use a few more instinctive players and it starts with MLB Gary Brackett, who missed several games last year, yet finished second on the team with 73 tackles.  Rookie Pat Angerer played fairly well and had a tag team rookie partner Kavell Conner manned the other linebacker spot.  They were out of position several times yet finished with 72 and47 tackles respectively.  These players are young and developing where there is room for improvement, don’t draft here. Yet improvement is necessary here.  Linebackers are little below average, right now not very instinctive and this year they’ll see what they have.  In reserve is Clint Session and Terrence Hagler, hard hitting special teamers that lead the Colts special teams downfield.

Secondary: Hard to give a grade to a unit when the best member was on the field for only a few games. Former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, who was finally let go, was the fire starter to this defense. Yet we have to cover the players that remain: First there is cornerback Kelvin Hayden who played solidly with 58 tackles and only 2 interceptions.  Just two? This is the ball hawk who replaced Nick Harper in Super Bowl XLI and ran an intercpetion for the game clinching touchdown against Chicago and he only had two interceptions?  Not enough…although he defensed 8 passes.  Justin Tryon and Jacob Lacey only recorded 1 interception between the two of them at the other cornerback spot.  Once you put in Antoine Bethea’s one interception, you realize that 8 interceptions overall on a defense is pathetic.  They have been rushing the passer well enough for an alert secondary to intercept a few more passes than that.

This is where they miss a Sanders who would play the game at 100% full speed and instinctual at supporting the run and adept enough to knock down plays 25 yards downfield.  Antoine Bethea did finish with the team lead in tackles with 105.  Too many plays are getting beyond Colt linebackers also. This team has been pushed around on defense since that 2005 season.  Without the enforcer in Bob Sanders forcing turnovers where do they go from here? Secondary is poor and needs an overhaul now….

Overall: In all seriousness this team should have been overtaken by one of the up and coming teams in the AFC South yet they weren’t.  They went as far as they could with a roster that equaled Super Bowl Champion Green Bay with 16 on the Injured Reserve.  The Colts needed to be healthy to compete in the playoffs and very few teams are healthy at that time of the year.  Yet we’re supposed to be talking of 2011…. Its imperative that they use 2 of their first 3 picks on a speed receiver and an every down back. With Manning there to keep defensive pressure off of a resurgent running game this team could get out to twelve wins again.  They cannot throw the football 679 times again in the upcoming season, eventually he will be hit and in his mid 30s can be hurt.

Manning’s situation in 2011 reminds us of San Francisco’s Steve Young’s in 1999.  The team had deteriorated through age around him yet as he mastered the craft of quarterbacking, the team won (3-1) and everything seemed fine until a late reaction to an Aneas Williams blitz and …………  We hope that doesn’t happen obviously yet one can only go to the well so many times.  A good running back and receiver and this team is 12-4 with a solid performance.  If Manning were to get injured this team wouldn’t go 4-12, he’s that valuable to this team.  If they stand pat this team should miss the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2001 and their Super Bowl window with Manning will close.