Author Archives: The Chancellor of Football

Ravens Rebuilding Defense With Dumervil and Huff Signings

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Michael Huff signs 3 year deal to replace Ed Reed at safety.

Michael Huff signs 3 year deal to replace Ed Reed at safety.

The start of NFL free agency wasn’t kind to the Baltimore Ravens. They lost LB Dannell Ellerbe,  LB Paul Kruger, then both Safeties in Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard. All of this with the retirement of Ray Lewis meant the defense would see a dramatic makeover. Yesterday they signed former Raider S Michael Huff just days after landing DE/OLB Elvis Dumervil. You can hear the “ahhhs” coming from the Raven fan base that there is life after Reed and Lewis. The question is did they get better??

Well upon further review… In Huff you have to measure his projected production vs what Ed Reed would have brought to the table. First things first they signed him  for $6 million over 3 years where Ed commanded $15 million from the Texans. They did get younger by 5 years going with Huff but they’ll need him to be more productive than he’s been. In 7 years he has averaged 58 tackles and only has 11 career interceptions. Reed had 15 in the last three years and 4 last year alone.

In some circles he has been considered a bust after being drafted so high out of Texas. He averages 8 passes defensed per season and needs to make more tackles. In that department Reed had 15 passes defensed in 2012 and averaged 12.5 per season. He has to show improvement and that is hard to do when learning a new system. He will probably be teamed with a rookie unless an experienced SS comes available later before the season starts. They signed a veteran safety but our CEO doesn’t think they improved the position.

Elvis Dumervil provides primetime pass rush that even Terrell Suggs didn't offer in 2012.

Elvis Dumervil provides primetime pass rush that even Terrell Suggs didn’t offer in 2012.

With the signing of Elvis Dumervil, GM Ozzie Newsome has pulled a coup. Not only did they rip the Broncos for one of the league’s best pass rushers, they took a defensive captain from a conference rival. What do you think that “C” means on his jersey. Don’t forget he’s only going into his 8th year, has been to the last three Pro Bowls and is just two seasons removed from a 17 sack season.

They saved $5 million in signing him v. Paul Kruger, whom has to live up to his contract and hasn’t been a full time starter yet. Dumervil is just in time to aid a Terrell Suggs who should be back to full strength and needs a bounce back year. Coming back from an Achille’s injury he was a shell of his former self. It might be ironic that his best game of the season was the 2 sacks he had against Denver in the playoffs with Dumervil watching.

Now its reported that Suggs helped recruit Dumervil and has a proven running mate to crash the pass pocket. Elvis is going into his 8th year and has averaged 10.5 sacks in his first 6. Which is good until you realize how good he was last year. He was a force across from Von Miller and had 11 sacks but more important 6 forced fumbles. He’s not only going to be able to duplicate the pass rush with two guys on the corners, there will be Haloti Ngata providing a push up the middle. He’s also reuniting with linebacker coach Don Martindale, who coached in Denver when Dumervil came into the league. He’s already played in a 3-4, is familiar with the coaching staff and has an effective pass rusher on the other side, this was a dramatic upgrade that should affect the overall defense.

You can hear GM Ozzie Newsome saying quietly "I got this" can't you?

You can hear GM Ozzie Newsome saying quietly “I got this” can’t you?

What Ozzie is hoping for is the improved pass rush to affect Huff in being a better center fielder as a safety. However there is a wait and see aspect to this because it hasn’t translated into better performance yet. In 2010, the Oakland Raiders were 2nd in the NFL with 47 sacks and he only had 3 interceptions. Last year they were 31st in sacks with 25 and he had 2 picks. However he can benefit from the standpoint of more crowd noise and Baltimore having more leads which forces opponents to pass.

Let it be known that Dumervil will draw the initial double teams and if Suggs returns to form, this could be a sack machine in 2013.  Haloti in the middle and these two from the outside and don’t forget they picked up Chris Canty and Marcus Spears to possibly emerge as a DE who can provide support.  This can be a 40 -45 sack team in 2013. The question remains who they have at the inside linebacker position. However now you get a sense that Ozzie might have something up his sleeve. Which leads to a question… Having built two different Super Bowl winners, is Ozzie Newsome the best General Manager in the NFL??

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2013 Atlanta Falcons Preview – Did They Let Their Super Bowl Window Close?

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Julio Jones was on a roll in the first half of the NFC Championship Game.

Julio Jones was on a roll in the first half of the NFC Championship Game.

Think back to the second quarter of last year’s NFC Championship Game for a second. Julio Jones had just caught his second touchdown to put the Atlanta Falcons up 17-0. The crowd was into the game and after the comeback scare the Seattle Seahawks threw at them the week before, there was no way the 49ers were going to comeback. No way. They were just a little over 2 quarters away from Super Bowl XLVII….or so they thought.

The 49ers roared back to rob the Falcons of that trip. It looked like the maturation of the 5 year plan of Head Coach Mike Smith had fallen just short. Future Hall of Fame Tight End Tony Gonzalez stood before the media  saying goodbye. A great NFL season had come to an abrupt halt.

However it looks like the 5 year plan came with a one year option as the Falcons coaxed Gonzalez out of retiring. They replaced a slowing Michael Turner with former St Louis Ram Steven Jackson to increase offensive firepower. Talks are still ongoing with former Giant DE Osi Yumeniora, who lives in Atlanta by the way, to replace the departed John Abraham.  Then get this… since the Falcons have lost more free agents then they have signed they have been awarded four additional draft picks for this year. An extra fourth rounder and three seventh rounders for a total of 11 draft picks. Maybe this sixth year won’t be so bad after all.

Matt Ryan's 6th year is where he has to step into the league's elite in the playoffs.

Matt Ryan’s 6th year is where he has to step into the league’s elite in the playoffs.

Quarterback: Nowhere else can you look at a quarterback and say the future is now like you have to with Matt Ryan. Once we watched Joe Flacco break through to join the ranks of Super Bowl champion quarterbacks, just winning a playoff game is not enough. Although if you look at the playoff game he won he showed you why some still have question marks about him. In that game he was 24 of 35 for 250 yards 3TDs, but threw 2 interceptions that helped fuel Seattle’s comeback. He disappears in the middle of games and did so in the NFC Championship as well.

What leads to the upside is he did march the Falcons to his first playoff win after falling behind with :31 left to play. With a berth in the NFC  Championship at stake “Matty Ice” connected on 3 passes and put them in range of the winning field goal to escape 30-28. He led the Falcons on 6 last second winning drives like that in the regular season, so he is cool under fire.

For the season, his stats were spectacular completing 68.6% of his passes for a team record 4,719 yards and 32 touchdowns. Owner Arthur Blank succeeded in drafting a QB to be the face of the franchise after the Michael Vick era. However Ryan sat in that tier of “yeah-but” quarterbacks with Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, and Tony Romo as regular season statistical guys that hadn’t shown up in the post-season. Now that he’s in his prime and Flacco broke through that wall, he has to do so as well. He has to keep his intensity for the entire game and not wait until the last minute. At quarterback the Falcons are Super Bowl quality.

Jackson should be deadly in this offense.

Jackson should be deadly in this offense.

Offensive Backfield: The signing of former St Louis Ram running back Steven Jackson could be the move to put Atlanta over the top. Face it Michael Turner in recent years declined from being a good running back to a marginal ball carrier. He could only get the yardage the offensive line produced and nothing more. Evidence?? How about 3.6 yards per carry for the season??

Enter Steven Jackson. There was an overall feeling in previous years, throughout the league, that the Falcons weren’t a tough team. Jackson with his bruising style should change that completely. Although the Rams went to a passing offense he still made it to 1,042 yards in just 257 carries. In 7 of the last 8 seasons he has averaged 4.1 yards per carry or greater. That’s as the focal point of the offense.

Now he gets to line up with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonalez as passing targets to free the running lanes?? Yikes!! He hasn’t had anywhere near that much talent around him before…trust us Danny Amendola doesn’t scare defensive co-ordinators. He should have a 1,400 yard season now that he has a chance at a Super Bowl ring. That hunger should feed the team’s urgency as well. Jacquizz Rodgers is the 3rd down / change of pace back who has some burst. Only going into his 3rd year he’s learning the game and is adept at slipping out and catching passes for 1st downs. They’re going to be playoff quality at least with Jason Snelling backing up Jackson as well.

One more year for the future Hall of Famer.

One more year for the future Hall of Famer.

Receivers: Just when NFC South defensive co-ordinators thought they could take a break, Atlanta drafts Julio Jones. Now they bring back Tony Gonzalez for another go ’round. By the way you do realize in 2010 Roddy White led the NFL with 115 receptions while being second in yards with 1389 yards right? That was 3 years ago?? Well last year White caught 92 passes for 1,351 yards and 7 touchdowns and may not be the best receiver on the team anymore. Julio Jones replaced him on the NFC Pro Bowl roster after a 79 catch  1,198 yard season where he scored 10 touchdowns. This is firepower!! Jones is only going into his 3rd season and benefits from the coverage afforded White and Gonzalez. Defenses can pick their poison because they are going to lose.

Which brings us to the slowing, aging veteran tight end in Tony Gonzalez. Wait a minute, what aging process?? He caught 93 passes for 930 yards and 8 touchdowns. He was voted All Pro and made the Pro Bowl. In all actuality, this may be the greatest group of traditional receivers (2WR / 1TE) in NFL history. It certainly is when it comes to production. These guys had 264 rec. for 3,479 yards and 25 touchdowns. Compare this with the 1980 San Diego Chargers who had John Jefferson, Charlie Joiner, and Kellen Winslow when they had 242 receptions for 3,762 yards and 26 touchdowns. It’s certainly worth debating and for one more year this team is Super Bowl quality at the receiver position.

Offensive Line: One loss for Atlanta is the retirement of 14 year Center Todd McClure. However the line needs some improvement as evidenced by their fall to 29th in rushing with just over 1,300 yards. In contrast with the same cast of characters they were 12th in 2010 with almost 1900 yards. Look for a draft pick to be used to fortify the offensive line, whether a Center is drafted or a guard is picked. One will switch over to snap the football. They only allowed 28 sacks as a unit but frequently couldn’t push the pile on 3rd and 1 to keep drives going. Did you know that on 3rd or 4th and 1 including goal line, this group could only power for the first down or touchdown on 50% of rushing plays up the middle or to the strong side??

How much of that falls on the line and how much falls on the running backs?? Well since every running back ran for less than 4.0 yards per carry and the short yard percentages were 25th and 24th respectively, this group gets the blame. When it’s 3rd and 1, you don’t need Eric Dickerson to get that yard. It’s a matter of attitude and toughness at that point and this team needs to get tougher on the point when they run. Since they did get Matt Ryan hit 80 times passing the football this team gets an average grade on the offensive line. We have to see how they develop.

Defensive Line: Although there is speculation this team still hasn’t signed Osi Yumeniora or the replacement for John  Abraham yet. You have to understand they needed help to rush the passer anyway. Did you know that John Abraham not only didn’t record a sack in last year’s two playoff games, he didn’t produce 1 tackle?? You have to go back to the two losses to the Giants and Packers in 2011 and 2010 to find some postseason pass rush from him. Just one sack in each of those which turned out to be losses. Kroy Bierman (4 1/2 sacks) Jonathon Babineaux (3 1/2 sacks) and Vance Wlker (3 sacks) are the returning linemen. Just 10 sacks between them. The Falcons were 24th overall and 21st against the run and this group has to take the brunt of that as well.

The Falcons will need to draft some help and possibly sign two key free agents here. After watching this group get tortured trying to chase Russell Wilson who threw for a postseason rookie record of 385 yards against them, you see why Falcon’s Brass is making the change. That should have favored a John Abraham and it didn’t. This could be the group that sinks the Super Bowl aspirations of this team and is below average.

Weatherspoon is a fast heady player who should continue to get better.

Weatherspoon is a fast heady player who should continue to get better.

Linebackers: This is a speedy group that often gets linemen out on them when the team is run on. They have to shed blocks better and Sean Weatherspoon should have a breakout year going into his fourth season. Last year he tied Stephan Nicholas with 95 tackles for the team lead while compiling 3 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble.This is with him missing 3 games last year.

Nicholas also garnered 2 sacks and an interception in his 6th season. Right now they are as good as it gets in the NFC South. These two are on the field for nearly every play including the Spread and Pistol formations. They just need to make a few more splash plays and force more turnovers to improve the defense from a statistical and tactical standpoint. With a little improvement this will be a playoff quality group.

Secondary: Last year the Falcons acquired Asante Samuel to help with the nickle slot receivers and insurance if they lost Brent Grimes or Dunta Robinson. Turns out Grimes went down with an injury and all Samuel did was intercept 5 passes returning them for 110 yards and 1 touchdown. What was amazing is the Falcons only had 7 total interceptions from their cornerbacks. Now Grimes and Robinson are elsewhere and Samuel is entrenched as a starter. Opposite him could be Robert McClain but he’s more of a journeyman than a starting cornerback. Look for the Falcons to make a move for a veteran here with a late summer pick up more than a draft choice since they’re trying to win now.

Samuel is the NFL's all time post season interceptor, yardage, and touchdown leader.

Samuel is the NFL’s all time post season interceptor, yardage, and touchdown leader.

The Falcons are better at safety where Thomas DeCoud (76 tackles / 6 ints) and William Moore (76 tackles / 4 ints) had a nose for the football. Each will support the run and tackle well in space. Since the Falcons have to manufacture a pass rush they’ll blitz their safeties as well. Both DeCoud and Moore recorded sacks last year. One of the reasons the Falcons were exposed in the secondary was the weak pass rush that left them in coverage too long. If they can shore that up this would be a playoff quality group, right now we have to leave their ranking as average.

Overall: The Chancellor of Football’s crystal ball comes down to the Falcons taking a trip to Seattle for the NFC Championship if the Falcons complete the moves necessary to move forward. Shore up the Center position, rush the quarterback better and give the ball to Steven Jackson to maintain drives like Michael Turner used to in years gone by. Matt Ryan needs to play complete games and not take 3rd quarters off and a better running game can aid from a tactical standpoint. Shore these up and they can make a run at history. Keep your eye on one or two defenders that get cut by other teams being scooped up to fill holes in the defense. Last year it worked with Samuel. For the 3rd straight year Taylor Blitz Times has the Atlanta Falcons headed for the conference championship…

They host RG III and the Redskins, Patriots, and Seattle again with the winner of that game possibly getting the homefield advantage. After that there are two away games that present problems. One trip to San Francisco and one to Green Bay, if the running game is intact each of those are very winnable. The Chancellor sees the Falcons with an 11-5 or a 12-4 record. They won’t go 13-3 again. It’s all lined up for them if they get the breaks and shore up their defensive front. Time will tell if Matt Ryan is going to make them a Super Bowl team.

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Free Agency Days 3 – 5: Moves That Complete Teams

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It was the hard hitting SS Leonard Smith that pushed the late 80s Bills into the NFL elite.

It was the hard hitting SS Leonard Smith that pushed the late 80s Bills into the NFL elite.

Just because some of  the sexier names have taken up the headlines the last two days doesn’t mean there aren’t valued players left to be signed. Those spots that can complete a team and put a team over the top. When you look back at moves of yesteryear, the Buffalo Bills were building through the draft with Bruce Smith, Cornelius Bennett, Jim Kelly, Andre Reed, and Thurman Thomas. It was a move to bring a leader and proven old pro in SS Leonard Smith to push the Bills into the league’s elite. He was the last move that sent the Bills to several Super Bowls as the next decade dawned.

Not Charles Haley...it was Thomas Everett that pushed the Cowboys over the top back in the early 1990s.

Not Charles Haley…it was Thomas Everett that pushed the Cowboys over the top back in the early 1990s.

Same thing for the early 90’s Dallas Cowboys when they traded for Pittsburgh Steelers’ Safety Thomas Everett in 1992. Where they had been 1-3 against Run & Shoot teams in 1991, they went 5-0 against those teams including the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXVII that finished as the top passing teams that year. It was this interception in Super Bowl XXVII that started the 1990’s reign of the Dallas Cowboys. Otherwise the Bills take a 17-14 lead and the Bills take control of the game.

Wilson moves to New England.

Wilson moves to New England.

In these cases as it has in many instances, it’s the non headline signings that have made the difference in teams turning around their fortunes. One such signing could be SS Adrian Wilson joining the Patriots. Going into his 13th season he is a quick fix that can pay short-term dividends on the field. However he can pay long term dividends  for Belichick by mentoring a young secondary.

You’ll notice the Patriots re-signed CB Kyle Arrington to a four-year deal worth $16.5 million and a one year deal with Aquib Talib, who is only entering his 6th season. They are looking to upgrade the 29th ranked pass defense and will benefit from a full offseason to improve players who know the Bill Belichick and the Patriot way. What happens if the Patriots can improve to a ranking in the teens against the pass?? After all their last two seasons ended in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl XLVI respectively.

Another way to improve your pass defense is to improve on the pass rush. Don’t overlook the fiasco that left Bronco LB/DE Elvis Dumervil a free agent. Now the New England Patriots are among those that are pursuing him. Sure he was going to re-sign for a lesser amount to stay with the Broncos. That was all well and good until other teams start to entice him with offers. Just ask the 49ers who didn’t franchise S Dashon Goldson and are now looking at lesser talents in an aging Charles Woodson and the signing of SS Craig Dahl. Who?? Exactly!! Keep your eye on Dumervil with the Steelers, and Ravens also vying for his services. To strengthen yourself and weaken your enemy is the root of free agency.

Greg Jennings is going to look different in a Viking uniform.

Greg Jennings is going to look different in a Viking uniform.

In the words of Robin “Holy Brett Favre batman.” After watching the animosity and angst thrust at his former teammate, Greg Jennings decides to play for the hated Minnesota Vikings. Going into just his 8th season he’s as complete a receiver there is in the NFL. Unlike a Wes Welker, he can play the X receiver, Z receiver, or the slot.  This more than makes up for the loss of Percy Harvin who wasn’t a polished receiver. Taking his career 425 receptions 6,537 yards and 53TDs to a division rival, he will get booed lustily when he returns to Lambeau Field. His play will help the maturation of QB Christian Ponder and take heat off of Adrian Peterson. Don’t forget the Vikings will be going outdoors after next season. Having a cold weather receiver will pay dividends down the road.

Steven Jackson's physicality might be what the Falcons needed. They aren't perceived as a tough team.

Steven Jackson’s physicality might be what the Falcons needed. They aren’t perceived as a tough team.

The Atlanta Falcons have made many moves this off-season and one of the best moves was coaxing Tony Gonzalez from retiring and playing one more year. This up’s the ante for the organization to get it done in 2013 even though he’s signed a two-year $13 million deal. To fill the role of the departed Michael Turner, the St Louis Rams all time leading rusher Steven Jackson signs and brings a big play running back to the defending NFC South Champions. His hunger and desire to be a champion along with Tony’s could propel this team to the top or at least another NFC Championship appearance.  They now have every piece in place with wideouts Roddy White, Julio Jones, Matt Ryan having his first playoff win under his belt, along with Coach Smith are these the two signings that will put the Falcons over the top??

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Free Agency Day 2 – Late Signings

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A move to bolster the Seahawks pass rush weakens conference rival Detroit.

A move to bolster the Seahawks pass rush weakens conference rival Detroit.

The Seattle Seahawks are really after a trip to Super Bowl XLVIII and continued to strengthen themselves with the signing of DE Cliff Avril formerly of Detroit. In 5 seasons with the Lions he amassed 168 tackles and 39 1/2 sacks. They almost lost  him last year when they gave him the franchise tag after an 11 1/2 sack season. They had made a 10-6 season and looked to be headed to sunny days when the roof fell in during 2012. Now the front running Seahawks have added a pass rusher in his prime to join Bruce Irvin (8 sacks) and a recovering DE Chris Clemons from injury.

At 27 years of age Avril signs a 2 year contract worth $15 million, to help this team get to the Super Bowl. He has another chance at a free agent contract if he performs during these next two seasons. Even then he’d be 29 years of age and should be able to get after the passer with a three man rush in passing situations. The Seahawks have insulated themselves that two of the three best pass rushers should be healthy by the time we get to the 2013 playoffs.

The Indianapolis Colts come to terms with former New York Jet S LaRon Landry to bolster the NFL’s 21st against the pass defense. Not bad for a team that finished 11-5 in 2012, although they gave up 387 points. Head Coach Chuck Pagano knows his team can’t depend on Andrew Luck bringing the team from behind multiple times again. Now they sign a Pro Bowl S to a 4 year $24 million deal.

Amendola will have to fill some big shoes in New England.

Amendola will have to fill some big shoes in New England.

After losing Wes Welker to conference rival Denver, the Patriots signed former St Louis Ram slot receiver Danny Amendola a 5 year deal worth $31 million. Really?? Over a receiver that set a league record having 5, 100 catch seasons?? Sure Amendola is only turning 28 years old, he’s caught just 196 career passes in 4 years. Compare that to the last two years where Welker caught 240 combined. Go figure. The callousness that Chad Ochocinco was shown to a fan favorite coming off 5 straight Pro Bowl seasons. Amendola will have some pressure on him this year as fans and pundits compare the two all next year.

The Denver Broncos signed former Eagle CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to a one year deal after struggling in the City of Brotherly Love. His story is intriguing since he was almost an after-thought thrown into the trade between the Arizona Cardinals and Eagles for quarterback Kevin Kolb. If he can give a better performance than Tracy Porter, he can possibly turn it into a serious payday next year. He’s also going to a contender and can resurrect his career as a definitive starting corner, or be relegated to that of a nickel back and special teams player only from here on out. He better bring his “A” game since he’ll be playing across Champ Bailey.

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Free Agency Day 2: Wes Welker Signs With the Denver Broncos

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Wes Welker is going to the AFC West.

Wes Welker is going to the AFC West.

The New England Patriots tried to render him obsolete last year and once the tight ends went down, they returned to their small receiver. Well they didn’t want to offer Wes Welker what he and his agent wanted. Enter John Elway and the Denver Broncos. They sign Welker to a 2 year deal for $12 million, and he is 8 years younger than current slot receiver Brandon Stokely.

Now the only player in NFL history with 5 different 100 reception seasons is heading to play with Peyton Manning.  Time will  tell and he will definitely get back at the Patriots when they play. With the Ravens coming apart and the Steelers struggling to hold onto their players, Denver is still in the mix for the AFC Championship. It’s now up in the air

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Free Agency Day 2: Dashon Goldson Signs With Tampa Bay

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The San Francisco 49ers lost an enforcer with Goldson's departure.

The San Francisco 49ers lost an enforcer with Goldson’s departure.

When a team sends its private jet to fly you cross-country, you knew they were going to throw a contract at Dashon Goldson he couldn’t refuse. The former Pro Bowl and All Pro safety leaves a glaring hole in the back 7 of the 49ers. This is a blow to the defending NFC Champions who are looking at Charles Woodson to replace him. First things first, Goldson is a hitter and terrorized receivers coming into his area.  At 6’2 205 lbs he brings the lumber whether facing a tight end, receiver over the middle, or coming up to support the run.

He’s been a Pro Bowler the last two years and his 67 tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 3 interceptions joins last year’s 1st round selection in SS Mark Barron. Now the Buccaneers have two hitters in the secondary and Barron just gained a mentor.  This move could spell the end for Ronde Barber. Two natural safeties should improve the Buccaneer secondary.

At 28 years of age, Goldson should be able to complete his contract and will be needed to improve the 32nd ranked pass defense last year. They were horrible allowing 4,758 yards and 30 touchdowns. They need all the help they can get. Well he signs a 5 year deal and financial points will be disclosed tonight.

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