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’25 AFC Divisional Preview: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

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This isnt Drake Maye v. CJ Stroud as much as each QB v the respective defenses they face. In last week’s round the Houston Texans pass rush with 4 in Danielle Hunter & Will Anderson tore through Pittsburgh.

They allowed Azeez Al Shaair to roam blanketing TEs inside and punish runners if they made it past the line. The colder it is go with the best defense and this #1 ranked unit will get after Drake Maye once they extinguish the running game.

Maye will have to contend with All Pro CB Derek Stingley Jr who last year sharpened his play with then teammate Stephon Diggs. Stingley & Kamari Lassiter will blanket Diggs & Boutte.  This team is looking for a shutout.

The Patriots finished 22nd in the NFL and schematically play well enough to limit CJ Stroud who is missing WR Niko Collins. However the Texans will force 3 or more turnovers to flip the field, givimg Stroud a few short fields

Momentum in football games can turn when a defender makes a thunderous hit or force a fumble or both. Just as we watched Singleton #49 yesterday for the Broncos when he tattooed James Cook of the Bills.

Drake Maye will have nerves in his first playoff game where Stroud, who had a shaky start, should be over his. The Texans need to have their pass rush rattle Maye early and keep him off balance all game. He has feasted off patsies with a weak schedule. Nervous in his first playoff game against a #1 defense is rattling…

Heading to the AFC Championship and possibly Super Bowl LX:

The Houston Texans 25- 17!

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Has Buffalo’s Super Bowl Window Closed?

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Its time to really take a look at the Buffalo Bills and the closing of their Super Bowl window with Josh Allen. There are those that will argue but the front office did the same thing back in the 90s when they were going to the big game. They stopped trying to get blue chip talent and just leaned on those in tow. However if we go back to that time they had 5 Hall of Fame players where this incarnation has one…. Josh Allen and let others slip away.

Yes he is the reigning MVP but the way he played these last 8 years, yeah 8 years… he has taken 2 to 3 times the hits other quarterbacks have. The willingness to take on tacklers with his big body on planned running plays but his accuracy may get beat out of his body. Think back to Cam Newton and it was his 8th season (2018 / 6-8 record playing just 14 games) when the losses and injuries started to mount. The next year (for those who didn’t hit the link) he was 0-2 in the games he played and the bottom fell out for a (5-11) team who just 4 years before was 15-1, had an MVP Newton and playing in Super Bowl 50.

Well it was 4 years ago when Allen had his signature game in the 42-36 divisional loss to Kansas City. It was one of the NFL’s greatest games and we’re still clinging to that promise. The Bills fell in love with Allen as a cheat code where the passing windows aren’t open, Josh will take off and run or buy time to get them open.  Then there are the QB sweeps where we get to play 11 on 11 football. This gave the Bills a dimension to lean into other teams didn’t have the luxury of… but at what expense?

Stephon Diggs for one as he came back and lit up the Bills for 10 receptions 146 yards in spearheading a 23-20 win in Buffalo. It looked like an upset at the time but the 8-2 Patriots have Diggs leading the charge with 50 rec. 554yds/3Tds but most importantly he can get open with his quickness in a phone booth Drake Maye has grown to depend on. Allen used to have this as a part of his arsenal and has been scrambling for his life to get a “D” rate receiving corps time to get open. He looked like a beaten fighter at the end of the loss in Miami.

Where is the blue chip receiver the Bills should have acquired once Diggs departed?? Where are the blue chip defenders to make plays (forced fumbles / 3rd down sacks in key moments)?? My Bills just rely on schematically correct defense without any playmakers to change the momentum in a game. Same iwth the offense and I know they acquired Amari Cooper last year however, that is in his 14th year on his 4th team and his forte was never quickness to get open and provide a quick target.

Forgive me as we look at the graphic above but wasn’t Tyler Lockett available a few weeks ago?? Why not sign Lockett?? Trade for Rasheed Shaheed with New Orleans? There was so much more the Bills could have done but they kept relying on Josh to be Superman when he needs some Super Friends.

As he keeps taking all these hits the additional padding he will put on can change his throwing motion moving forward. This will be something to watch. This game has been played well over 100 years and the one thing we do know is a young QB will  use his legs and run when a play isn’t there. By their 5th year starting they have to evolve into almost strictly a passer and rely on guile reading defenses and audibling into the right play.

As a Bills fan The Chancellor doesn’t want to see this happen to Josh Allen but the writing is on the wall. The Bills are 6-3 and aside from the 28-21 win over the 5-4 Chiefs there isn’t another big win. Well you can count the 41-40 come from behind epic to start the season but the Bills had been manhandled much of the game and had some lucky bounces to come from 16 down to win it. That won’t happen a 2nd time and if we don’t catch the Patriots and win the division we’re going to be on the road in the playoffs. We’re 2-2 this year on the road with losses to Atlanta and Miami. Not against elite teams.

What no one is talking about is the punishment accumulation Josh Allen is taking along with the pressure to be Superman every game. We watched this ruin Cam Newton by year 8 a decade before and watched it happen in the 70s with Bert Jones for my old timers. It happened with Steve Young and so many others. Sure the loss to Miami was a division opponent and anything can happen but if you look at the tell tale signs something else was signaled with that loss in South Florida.

The Super Bowl window with this incarnation of the Bills has closed and a retooling has to happen.

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2021 AFC East Preview: Division of Game Changers

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Welcome to the 2021 season where Bill Belichick has taken his Patriots down to Miami a full week early to thwart the 2-7 record his team has in away games with the Dolphins. This move mirrors the desperation of not naming an offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator in what looks to be an unceremonious end to Bill Belichick’s career. This will be his last year.

Where does this team turn when they start 0-4?? At Patriots, at Steelers, home to Baltimore then off to Green Bay. Yikes!

Yet elsewhere in the division it’s full speed ahead as Josh Allen and the Bills have become the talk of the league having made several upgrades heading into 2022.

AFC East Champions

  1. Buffalo Bills 13-4**
  2. New York Jets 9-8
  3. Miami Dolphins 6-11
  4. new England Patriots 5-12

The 1st of which is signing former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to bolster the reigning #1 defense and help school former 1st round DE Greg Rousseau. This should free up DT Ed Oliver from interior double teams as all 3 -1st rounders should be after QBs all season. Schematically this defense played well but needs playmaking game changers and this pass rush has to be that. Just look back to the last :13 in Kansas City.

Jan 23, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Rams outside linebacker Von Miller (40) forces a fumble by Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) during the second half in a NFC Divisional playoff football game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Hall of Fame pass rushers shouldn’t fall from the sky and the Bills got the biggest defensive acquisition in football. Miller has 4.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in Super Bowl competition. In the ’15 AFC Championship he had 2.5 sacks of Tom Brady and another 4 hits on him to rattle TB12. Then last year it was Von’s sack, forced fumble and fumble recovery on Brady that gave the Rams strategic control of the game sending them to the NFC Championship Game.

However the most improved team in the division is the New York Jets. Drafting Zach Wilson home run speed in OSU WR Garrett Wilson and grabbing CB Sauce Gardner and DE Jermaine Johnson with their #1 picks. Its Wilson taking the top off defenses that will allow Braxton Berrios to continue to be dynamic in the slot. However if 2nd round pick Breece Hall hits at running back this offense has the potential to be one of the best in football. They will mirror Joe Burrow and the weapons  in Cincinnati but they may be one year away from hitting full stride.

Miami will be the middle of the pack team they have been with Tua at quarterback. They did get Tyreek Hill who should turn heads early in the season with bubble screens and turning short gains into big ones early in the season. Yet look to defensive coordinators to figure out Tua’s arm can’t threaten downfield and his affectiveness to be minimized by midseason.

This season of dynamic playmakers begins and ends with Bills QB Josh Allen who could be league MVP with another great season. Completing 409 of 646 for 4,407 yds 36TDs with 15 interceptions had him in last year’s race. His 763 yards rushing will hopefully be lower and he needs to  slide more and not take so many hits. With Diggs (102 rec. 1,225 yds/ 10TDs) back and the emergence of Gabriel Davis (NFL playoff record 4 TDs in KC) this team has no obvious weaknesses. Barring injury this group of playmakers should be playing in early February in Super Bowl LVII.

It all begins by showcasing it Thursday Night against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams on the road. Time for the rubber to hit the road!

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2020 AFC East Preview: Winds of Change

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When Tom Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason the winds of change swept through the AFC East. The stranglehold Bill Belichick and Brady had was finally broken and teams began anew with dreams of storming the Patriots castle. Most notably the Buffalo Bills who were in the playoffs for the 2nd time in 3 years.

The Bills arrive with the NFL’s #3 ranked defense and added former Viking wideout Stefon Diggs to bolster the offense.  Josh Allen has the keys to the offense and RB Devin Singletary is the engine that powers this team forward. Will they emerge as division champions as many pundits believe?

2020 AFC East Predictions

  1. New England Patriots 11-5*
  2. Buffalo Bills 10-6**
  3. Miami Dolphins 6-10
  4. New York Jets 5-11

Not so fast as the Patriots will become a surprise division champion as Belichick and Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels will coax a turnaround season from Cam Newton. The former NFL MVP allows New England a solid weapon in the running game and will be able to work in a more traditional offense and some two tight ends. He has a spectacular young wideout in former ASU star N’Keal Harry and an underrated Jakobi Meyers. These two 2nd year players will benefit from Julian Edelman still in the slot to move the chains.

Singletary should have a 1,200 yard season in 2020.

In upstate New York the Bills have to get more out of Josh Allen as a downfield passer. He has to show the ability to get through his progressions and revert to running as a 3rd option in a make or break season. His fight or flight mechanics were highlighted in last year’s wild card loss. He has to get the ball into the endzone and not rely on field goals and get his defense a cushion.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, right, hands off the ball to Bills running back Zack Moss during an NFL football training camp in Orchard Park, N.Y., Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020. (James P. McCoy/The Buffalo News via AP, Pool)

One of the issues is the Bills didn’t step up and take one of the games against New England last year.  Each were in reach and they just couldn’t seize it. That came back to haunt them in why the Bills gave up a 16-0 lead in the wildcard game and couldn’t maintain it. They can’t assume they will win the division just because Brady is gone. The Bills have to learn to seize the opportunity and not expect to default into a division championship.

This team also lost a lot of leadership with the retirement of LB Lorenzo Alexander, RB Frank Gore, and DE Shaq Lawson. New leaders have to emerge for Buffalo to take that next step and why they will be in a wildcard slot again.

Aug 26, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) attempts a pass during training camp at Baptist Health Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Dolphins are building on the momentum of their 3-2 finish which included a win in New England in the finale. The future looks bright with the drafting of QB Tua Tagovailoa.  The team has brought in RB Matt Breida, and RB Jordan Howard to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick upright as well. He just doesn’t have the tools to move the ball downfield. The team drafted mostly defense to be better prepared to have a defense minded team when Tagovailoa takes over later in the year. Its only a matter of time.

Never underestimate Belichick and the NFL’s #1 defense as he is the best teacher of situational football in league history. He will coax another division championship in New England and Cam will be NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

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2018 AFC Predictions

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It seems that we have been predicting the demise of the New England Patriots unsuccessfully for the last 7 years. This season the Patriots will miss this player or this player. Yet here we are again with the 2 time defending AFC Champions ready to battle off conference contenders who appeared to have closed the gap.

3d illustration of an NFL logo behind a transparent silver American football on top of a green football field

Yet here we are with a great number of marquee players returning from serious injury. How quickly can DeShaun Watson, Andrew Luck, and JJ Watt return to form?? Can the Steelers offense find a rhythm once they get LeVeon Bell to report to the team??

There is this team out in Los Angeles no one wants. Not only do they return with the NFL’s 4th ranked offense featuring Melvin Gordon (1,105 yds 8 TDs rushing / 58 rec. 476 yds 4 TDs) & Phillip Rivers (4,515 yds 28 TDs and only 10 ints) on a team that went 9-3 to finish the season.  It took the Chargers 4 weeks to get used to Coach Anthony Lynn’s staff and a new home as they started 0-4.

2018 AFC Predictions:

AFC Wast Champs: LA Chargers 12-4*

AFC East Champs: New England Patriots 11-5

AFC North Champs: Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6

AFC South Champs: Houston Texans 9-7

Wild Card: New York Jets 10-6

Wild Card: Kansas City Chiefs 9-7

AFC Champions: LA Chargers

Yes the city of Los Angeles will have a team in Super Bowl LIII but not the team that everyone is anointing.

The Chargers best pass rush since the mid 80’s.

Keep in mind the Chargers defense was middle of the road ranked 15th and should improve as Joey Bosa returns from a foot injury. However a closer look shows this team gave up 319 yards per game in the last 8 games. Good enough to make the top ten. Fellow DE Melvin Engram III came on with 10.5 sacks to combine with Bosa’s 12.5 which anchored the NFL’s 3rd ranked defense against the pass. This team is ready to make a move.

A lot of pundits want to anoint Andrew Luck as back however The Chancellor sees nothing but rust, rust, rust. He hasn’t played football in over 600 days and Colts fans will wince everytime he hits the ground. Keep in mind he has 4 games against Sacksonville (55 sacks) and Tennessee (43 sacks) which finished in the top 5 in QB take downs. Oh…and 3 time NFL Defensive Player of the year JJ Watt also returns. Sorry Calvin Ladd the Colts will be losing a lot of games. Did you just see that Redzone interception??

Can Forunette stay healthy this season? Has a tendency to get nicked up.

The AFC South will have 3 even teams beating up on each other as no one will take command until the final week. The Titans and Jaguars play several close to the vest affairs. One bounce of the ball one way or the other spells win or loss in at least 6 of their games. Its going to come down to which QB can make plays beyond the X’s and O’s and DeShaun Watson edges Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles in that regard.

The Steelers and Patriots rule the AFC North and East respectively largely on Hall of Fame QBs. The underappreciated Ben Roethlisberger (4,251 yds 28TDs 14 ints) will have to keep the offense going in Bell’s absence. Pittsburgh is still the class of their division although this could be the last year on that perch. This situation with LeVeon Bell will linger all season. The back and forth between Pro Bowl C Maurkice Pouncey could prove disruptive to team chemistry once Bell joins the team.

This is how The Chancellor of Football’s crystal ball shapes up for 2018. It will be the L.A. Chargers traveling to Atlanta to play for this trophy:

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Super Bowl LII Recap: Eagles 41-33 Fly Eagles Fly!

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Ahhh yes Super Sunday dawned with the pomp and pageantry that has become an American holiday surrounding the NFL championship. Although this year was at a cold weather site, Minneapolis put on a great event.

Right from the opening kick the Eagles came out with their patented read-option look to settle Foles into the game. Each team came out with long marches that stalled inside the  leading to field goals.

The first big play came on the 2nd play of the following drive when LeGarrette Blount burst off guard for a 37 yard run where he broke two tackle attempts. Establishing an attitude the Eagles were here to play. Then Foles on another run option feathered a 34 yard bomb to Alshon Jeffries …surprise 9-3 Iggles!! Two bold strokes opened up a game where each team had been probing with intermediate shots.

All of a sudden we were reliving the early stages of Super Bowl LII as Brady fell behind by score and tempo of the game. The Patriots had been moving the ball and keeping even from a momentum perspective…and then S Malcolm Jenkins hit wideout Brandon Cooks knocking him out of the game. From that moment on the Patriots played nervous as momentum was on Philly’s side. New England even reverted to trickery with an Amendola reverse throw back to Brady. Once he dropped that pass and a failed 4th down attempt gave Foles a short field.

It was the corner throw from Foles to Jeffries that allowed the Iggles to maintain momentum. Then Blount turned in his second big play when he burst off a belly to the left for a 21 yard TD and a 15-3 lead.

Then came the 2nd turning point that many fans and pundits have issue with Patriot playoff games. With a 15-6 lead the Eagles were intercepted on a deep throw to Jeffies. The ball was tipped and intercepted. After beginning on their own 10 the Patriots started a drive that faced a 3rd and long when a questionable defensive holding call kept their drive alive. New England was saved by a bogus call again and a completed a 90 yard drive against a stunned Eagle defense. They cut the lead to 15-12 after White’s 26 yard touchdown tackle breaking run.

Just when the feeling of “here we go again” with the Patriots seizing control of the game, Nick Foles showed a cool no one thought he would have in a championship game. First he has Torrey Smith drop a sure 1st down and you could sense the unease rising where the Eagles needed a play. Then Foles hit with this:

The 55 yard swing pass to Clement brought the Eagles back to focus and after bogging down inside the 5, Foles threw to Jeffries where interference could have been called. Facing a 4th and goal Coach Pederson rolled the dice with Nick Foles…

In what could have been the greatest call in Super Bowl history Foles became the 1st QB in Super Bowl history to catch a TD. Its the type of play where an underdog has to take some chances and was the turning point of the game. Inside your opponents 5 on 4th down?? Those are some huge stones Coach Pederson and Offensive Coordinator Frank Reich called. Cinderella and her glass slippers led 22-12 going into the half.

However did we mention this is the Super Bowl?? Well Tom Brady who saw pressure yet had fired for nearly 200 yards in the 1st half. Well he went on to dominate the 3rd quarter and on his next drive completed 4 to a no longer quiet Gronkowski. The last being a 5 yard toss and the lead was 22-19 and could Philly answer the bell again??

super-bowl-52-tom-brady-loser-3Foles did answer with a touchdown however the defense that was supposed to put pressure on Brady was tiring out. Brady led the Patriots on 3 straight drives of 75 yards to take a 33-32 lead as the 4th quarter began. He was masterful and just completely demoralized the Eagle defense. The pass rush was exhausted and the Eagle DBs were running in cement. Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan were running open all through the 2nd half.

In what was becoming one of the greatest Super Bowls ever we were locked into a track meet where Nick Foles was battling Tom Brady in a heavy weight fight. Who would blink?

Finally Foles leads the Eagles on a touchdown drive with a pass to Zach Ertz that was debated, but clearly was a catch two steps and a lunge with an 11 yard pass to take a 41-33 lead. Cinderella was still dancing with a lead 2:21 to go on the clock and just steps away from their 1st championship since 1960. The stage was set for Tom Brady, who had been on 3 straight touchdown drives. Could Brady pull another miracle.

Holding their breath with a defense that hadn’t sacked Brady all night Brandon Graham blew into the backfield for the 1st, a forced fumble and a Lombardi Trophy for the City of Brotherly Love.

This was easily one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever played and the Chancellor of Football’s choice for MVP?? Nick Foles… how could you not?? He completes 28 of 43 for 373 yards 3 TDs and caught another touchdown.

Celebrate Philadelphia, you produced the timely plays to win it. Your first NFL Championship since 1960. Fly Eagles Fly! E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles!!

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