Tag Archives: nfl playoffs

Has Buffalo’s Super Bowl Window Closed?

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Its time to really take a look at the Buffalo Bills and the closing of their Super Bowl window with Josh Allen. There are those that will argue but the front office did the same thing back in the 90s when they were going to the big game. They stopped trying to get blue chip talent and just leaned on those in tow. However if we go back to that time they had 5 Hall of Fame players where this incarnation has one…. Josh Allen and let others slip away.

Yes he is the reigning MVP but the way he played these last 8 years, yeah 8 years… he has taken 2 to 3 times the hits other quarterbacks have. The willingness to take on tacklers with his big body on planned running plays but his accuracy may get beat out of his body. Think back to Cam Newton and it was his 8th season (2018 / 6-8 record playing just 14 games) when the losses and injuries started to mount. The next year (for those who didn’t hit the link) he was 0-2 in the games he played and the bottom fell out for a (5-11) team who just 4 years before was 15-1, had an MVP Newton and playing in Super Bowl 50.

Well it was 4 years ago when Allen had his signature game in the 42-36 divisional loss to Kansas City. It was one of the NFL’s greatest games and we’re still clinging to that promise. The Bills fell in love with Allen as a cheat code where the passing windows aren’t open, Josh will take off and run or buy time to get them open.  Then there are the QB sweeps where we get to play 11 on 11 football. This gave the Bills a dimension to lean into other teams didn’t have the luxury of… but at what expense?

Stephon Diggs for one as he came back and lit up the Bills for 10 receptions 146 yards in spearheading a 23-20 win in Buffalo. It looked like an upset at the time but the 8-2 Patriots have Diggs leading the charge with 50 rec. 554yds/3Tds but most importantly he can get open with his quickness in a phone booth Drake Maye has grown to depend on. Allen used to have this as a part of his arsenal and has been scrambling for his life to get a “D” rate receiving corps time to get open. He looked like a beaten fighter at the end of the loss in Miami.

Where is the blue chip receiver the Bills should have acquired once Diggs departed?? Where are the blue chip defenders to make plays (forced fumbles / 3rd down sacks in key moments)?? My Bills just rely on schematically correct defense without any playmakers to change the momentum in a game. Same iwth the offense and I know they acquired Amari Cooper last year however, that is in his 14th year on his 4th team and his forte was never quickness to get open and provide a quick target.

Forgive me as we look at the graphic above but wasn’t Tyler Lockett available a few weeks ago?? Why not sign Lockett?? Trade for Rasheed Shaheed with New Orleans? There was so much more the Bills could have done but they kept relying on Josh to be Superman when he needs some Super Friends.

As he keeps taking all these hits the additional padding he will put on can change his throwing motion moving forward. This will be something to watch. This game has been played well over 100 years and the one thing we do know is a young QB will  use his legs and run when a play isn’t there. By their 5th year starting they have to evolve into almost strictly a passer and rely on guile reading defenses and audibling into the right play.

As a Bills fan The Chancellor doesn’t want to see this happen to Josh Allen but the writing is on the wall. The Bills are 6-3 and aside from the 28-21 win over the 5-4 Chiefs there isn’t another big win. Well you can count the 41-40 come from behind epic to start the season but the Bills had been manhandled much of the game and had some lucky bounces to come from 16 down to win it. That won’t happen a 2nd time and if we don’t catch the Patriots and win the division we’re going to be on the road in the playoffs. We’re 2-2 this year on the road with losses to Atlanta and Miami. Not against elite teams.

What no one is talking about is the punishment accumulation Josh Allen is taking along with the pressure to be Superman every game. We watched this ruin Cam Newton by year 8 a decade before and watched it happen in the 70s with Bert Jones for my old timers. It happened with Steve Young and so many others. Sure the loss to Miami was a division opponent and anything can happen but if you look at the tell tale signs something else was signaled with that loss in South Florida.

The Super Bowl window with this incarnation of the Bills has closed and a retooling has to happen.

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Plight of The 2025 Kansas City Chiefs

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The 2025 Kansas City Chiefs look like the 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers. The dynasty ended while they’re players and coaches were still intact. People aren’t seeing them correctly due to suspended muscle memory.

Its like watching Mike Tyson fight after his incarceration. Yes he kept on winning but he wasn’t knocking prime fighters out in less than 2 rounds as we had become accustomed. 1997 Michael Tyson wasn’t 1988 Mike Tyson. Same with the 2025 Chiefs. Time has caught this dynasty. Taylor Blitz AFC West Preview had them finishing 9-8 and missing the playoffs just like that 1980 team.

Keep in mind their core players have played in 21 postseason games dating back to the 2018 season and everyone knows playoff football is amped much more than reguar season games. They haven’t had great records and were able to rest their players these last few years also.

Where does the wear and tear show up? All Pro DT Chris Jones for one looks warn out. Remember the loaf he had in the loss to Jacksonville on Trevor Lawrence’s last second touchdown run?

Let’s be honest, we haven’t seen him make a big play this season when he has been the Chiefs closer the last 7 years. He has a Pro Football Hall of Fame resume built on the multiple big play stops made in the biggest of games. He’s been the hungriest of lions on a defense that now leads the teams. In fact they should be a 4 time champion if it wasn’t for a bogus roughing the passer call in the 2018 AFC Championship Game. With a 21-17 lead on Brady’s Patriots they were hit with this bogus penalty after the Chiefs had roared back to take the lead.

Of course you can scoff that was 7 years ago and he was a younger hungrier player, but thats the point. The Chris Jones of old closed out many games when teams had a sliver of hope in the 4th quarter. Even after his press conference being called out earlier this year we were expecting him to return to the dominant 4th quarter defender thats defined his career. Same body… same number but the fire isn’t there.

Pundits have Patrick Mahomes and still argue he is the best quarterback in the NFL but a slow erosion has taken place. Last year he had to engineer 7 game winning drives in his 15 wins. His passing percentage was better in 2024 (64.5%) was better than his ’22 MVP season (64.1%) but it was for 1,282 less yards and a drop in TD passes by 15. The pack has caught up and last year the wolf was at the door where they had just enough to keep them at bay.

This team with a 5-4 record looks tired and they’ve been a great champion. They still have time to right the ship and mount another comeback but its a lot to expect from an older team after being on top for nearly a decade. Even Travis Kelce and his antics with Taylor Swift make him appear youthful, keep in mind he is running routes and getting hit in a 36 year old body. That is old in NFL years.

His dropoff to 3TDs in 2024 is glaring considering he averaged 11TDs the previous 3 years.

The clock struck midnight on this dynasty in the middle of Super Bowl week last year. They were two steps slow and the old knight couldn’t keep the young lion from taking their crown and fell hopelessly behind 34-0 in LIX when they were trying to 3Peat.

But alas Chiefs fans will say The Chancellor is hating but its the truth and all the cracks in the dynasty are there. You can sit with your brews as you did when an older Michael Tyson took on Evander Holyfield but just like that night…looks like Tyson.. shows flashes like the old Tyson but…. sigh look at this remaining schedule. Going to Mile High (7 game winning streak) and the Colts with NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor in these first 2?? Daunting task to say the least…

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SUPER BOWL XXXVI CHAMPION 2001 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

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One of the NFL’s greatest dynasties was stolen from a team set to become one in the St Louis Rams. New England’s 20-17 upset win was a carbon copy of Bill Belichick’s Super Bowl XXV gameplan when the NY Giants beat the Buffalo Bills.

Stolen? Well there had been claims the Patriots recorded the Rams walk through giving them an illegal and unfair advantage. In a game of simulated war you’d have to suspect there would be espionage at play. The Patriots were fined for this practice in 2007 and the taped evidence from the Super Bowl XXXVI incident were inadvertently destroyed. Which raised suspicion…

Super Bowl XXXVI Logo prior to 9/11

Espionage in the game of football?? Everyone is worried about it. Why do you think there are closed practices? Teams practicing wearing numbers different than what they play with on game day. Lombardi’s Packers did this in case they were spied on. In fact before the 1958 NFL Championship Carroll Rosenbloom had a Colts staffer spy on the New York Giants practice, promising him a job for life if caught.

This overshdowed the defensive brilliance of Bill Belichick’s carbon copy of his old Giants defenses. His secondary was physical with all his defensive backs 200 lbs or heavier. SS Lawyer Milloy (6’0 200 lbs) was the new Myron Guyton (6’1 205 lbs) & Tebucky Jones (6-2 218 lbs) were where the Rams receivers were funnelled to and were punished if they survived Patriots Linebackers clogging those lanes.

Super Bowl XXXVI Logo after 9/11 with the date pushed into February.

One of the most telling plays of the game was when NFL MVP Kurt Warner had Torry Holt open up the left sideline. The Rams were desperate to get their offense going and knowing Tebucky Jones was coming from a Cover 2 Safety alignment, came up alligator armed and dropped the pass. Jones hit him full force anyway and the camera NFL Films had on Holt, you saw him take his eye off the ball and look at Jones coming instead of securing the catch.

That drop where he didnt want the smoke is the reason Holt hasn’t made the Pro Football Hall of Fame in The Chancellor’s estimation. It was a lasting image on a huge stage.

Yet the 1st Super Bowl TD of the Patriots dynasty catapulted CB Ty Law on his way to Canton. Midway through the 2nd quarter a hurried Warner threw an out Law jumped and took to the house. Now down 7-3 The Greatest Show on Turf was completely in scramble mode.

Belichick’s bunch had Mike Martz right where they wanted him. An Offensive genius falls in to the trap believing his finesse x’s & o’s will trump fundamental football and arrogantly pass, pass, pass. Leaving NFL Offensive Player of the Year Marshall Faulk on the tarmac having abandoned the run.

This team had been constructed to be a newer version of Bill Parcells & Bill Belichick’s Giants and came to full fruition in February 2002. They were a surprise champion with a Cinderella season where Tom Brady won “The Tuck Rule” game against the Raiders in 1 playoff game. To original starter Drew Bledsoe replacing an injured Brady to lead the Patriots to  a win in the AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.

For all the world this seemed like a one time champion as they fielded 7 defenders 30 years of age or older. CB Otis Smith (36), DE Willie McGinest (30), ILB Roman Phifer (33), LB Bryan Cox (33), DE Bobby Hamilton (30), DE Anthony Pleasant (33) and Nickle Corner Terrell Buckley (30). They would have to retool but this 1st championship Patriot team was built on defensive might.

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Prime Pass Rushers Tilt The Field

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I forgot where we were having the conversation but I remember explaining to a football fan that nothing changes a team’s fortunes faster than a prime pass rusher. Not only does it improve your defense against the pass but it masks defensive deficiencies in the secondary. Its one of the reasons Taylor Blitz has Green Bay on its way to at least the NFC Championship Game this year with the acquisition of Micah Parsons.

This has been a lesson passed down from days gone by from two defensive terrorists The Chancellor has met that rushed the passer. Fred Dean & Cedrick Hardman. This especially holds true when a pass rusher in his prime is all of a sudden dropped on to a new team in a new division and I needed to elaborate further.

In 5th grade (1980) i remember the Raiders signing veteran Cedrick Hardman to rush the passer #86. He got 9.5 sacks as a designated pass rusher that helped Lester Hayes lead the NFL with 13 interceptions & they won Super Bowl XV.

The next year the idiotic move was San Diego sending a prime Fred Dean to San Francisco and they came out of nowhere to win Super Bowl XVI. It was Hardman, Dean and Lawrence Taylor that taught me the effects of great pass rushers.
To further the notion, the 1980 Chargers with Fred Dean was 6th in total defense & led the league with 60 sacks. Without Dean they gave up 1,500 more yards (4,691 to 6,136 yards allowed) and fell to a ranking of 27th and history misremembers them as Air Coryell & a terrible defense. They had finished 5th in ’79 & 6th in ’80 with Dean on the roster.
Other notables:
  • DE Charles Haley in ’92 – Cowboys were 16th in defense and rose to #1 and won Super Bowl XXVII
  • DE Jevon Kearse in ’99 – Titans had 30 sacks in ’98, they had 54 as Kearse’s Titans made Super Bowl XXXIV
  • OLB Von Miller in ’21 – Added to the #1 defense from ’20 & had 2 sacks in Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles.
  • OLB Haason Reddick in ’22 – Improved from 10th to 3rd in defense & 39 sacks to 770 sacks. Went to Super Bowl LVII.

In Kearse’s case he set the NFL Rookie Record with 13.5 sacks and the Titans became one of the league’s most physical defenses. Reddick was Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year with 16.5 sacks and spearheaded one of the NFL’s historic sack totals. We hadn’t seen a sack total like that since the ’89 Vikings with 71 sacks, just 1 off the league record of 72 by Chicago. Both the Bears & Vikings were #1 defensively and the Eagles would have been had they not been in so many blowout victories.

Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick forces a first quarter fumble on San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, January 29, 2023 in Philadelphia.

The NFL world is still buzzing with the idiotic trade of Dallas prime pass rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers. Moves like this completely tilt the field when a defense receives a weapon to bolster its lineup. Especially in this division. We all know of the seismic shift that took place when Green Bay signed the late Reggie White back in 1993, but remember the Bears bringing in PFHOF Julius Peppers to the division in 2010?

Chicago went from 17th in defense in 2009 to 4th and made it to the NFC Championship Game where they hosted Green Bay. Peppers was an All Pro for the 6th time in his career & 4th in NFL DPOY voting.

They did it again trading for future PFHoF Khalil Mack in 2018 leaping from 10th in defense to 3rd. They had been #1 for most of the season and Mack made his 5th straight Pro Bowl, 3rd All Pro selection, came in 2nd in voting for NFL DPOY (he won it in 2015) and led the Bears to a 12-4 record and first round bye. Mack was Taylor Blitz Defensive Player of the Year a 2nd time and The Chancellor predicted the carnage he would lay in Green Bay that first game on Monday Night. Why??

Well it was the 2nd coming of what happened when the San Francisco 49ers made the surprise move to pick up PFHoF DE Fred Dean at the start of 1981. Rivals within the division were unable to prepare for this terrorist to be dropped in their lap. They were unable to prepare via the draft or free agent personnel and here comes 4 time All Pro Micah Parsons. They were already the NFL’s 5th best defense in 2024. Yikes!

You could even bring up  PFHoF DeMarcus Ware when he joined Von Miller in Denver to win Super Bowl 50. Yet that was in his 2nd season in Denver and not the surprise element of tilting the field in the 1st.  Same can be said of fellow PFHoF DE Jared Allen. In his 2nd season in Minnesota (2009) he was among the league leaders in sacks (14.5) and led his Vikings to the NFC Championship Game featured here in a “Missing Rings” article.

Same can be said of the late Kevin Greene who tilted the field 3 times aiding 3 teams to either the conference championship or Super Bowl in 4 straight seasons. He led the league in sacks (14) in ’94 leading the Steelers to the AFC Championship then Super Bowl XXX the following season. He then joins the Carolina Panthers in ’96 leading the NFL in sacks again (14.5) and was the impetus in making the NFC Championship Game in their 2nd season of existence. He follows that up going to San Francisco as a designated pass rusher and accumulates another 10.5 sacks as they make the ’97 NFC Championship Game.
Fred Dean, Kevin Greene, Charles Haley, Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, and DeMarcus Ware are all enshrined in Canton. Von Miller will be there one day and with a few more All Pro selections Micah will be there as well. Just understand more than any other position, a prime pass rusher whether from a Defensive End or Outside Linebacker dramatically increases a team’s success more than any other position.
Starting in that 1981 season when I learned the lesson of the importance of the weak side pass rusher. All of a sudden drafting the Left Tackle became a focal point of the offense and many teams lead rebuilds around selecting one in the 1st round. It’s also when you started to see Left Tackle salaries soar. Do you realize in 2025, 23 of the NFL’s 32 teams have their LT in their top 5 highest paid players? If stopping prime pass rushers carries this type of weight what value do the pass rushers have themselves?
Nothing tilts the field for a team’s immediate fortunes like landing a prime pass rusher. Nothing… franchise QBs or all time great running backs don’t get dealt at their zenith.
Again the lessons learned have brought me as a defensive afecionado to writing about these exploits and spreading this with fellow fans. For me it started with Cedrick Hardman & Fred Dean, both of whom I had the chance to meet.
With Cedrick I used to run into him at The White House in Laguna Beach California early 2000s Talked football over many drinks. Same with Fred at the PFHoF hotel in Canton. We’re having a drink at the bar in Canton and I explained the both of them teaching me the lesson of pass rush terrorists and Dean said “Your ass is too young to remember all this zhit” I hit him back… “You know that’s the same muthaphukkin’ thing Cedrick’s ass said.” Great times ….great laughs. I had waited 37 years to shake Dean’s hand and thank him for that lesson.
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2025 AFC West Preview!

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Its amazing how week 1 looked a lot like Super Bowl LIX with Patrick Mahomes running for his life against the Chargers. To be fair their gameplan changed when they lost Xavier Worthy to injury but it’s a microcosm of what they will face in 2025.

AFC West 2025 Predictions

1 Denver Broncos 12-5 *

2 Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 +

3 Kansas City Chiefs 9-8

4 Oakland Raiders 6-11

Do you realize the Broncos defense finished ranked 7th but just 101 yards from finishing 2nd?? With twin OLB Nick Bonito (13.5 sacks) & Jonathan Cooper (10.5 sacks) speeding quarterbacks clocks into ’24 NFL Defensive POY Patrick Surtain II, this defense will be even more disruptive this year.

They led the NFL with 63 sacks last year and their two main pass rushers are just 25 & 26 years of age respectively. Now add in 24 yr old 2nd year QB Bo Nix and this team is growing into a winner right before your eyes. Nix broke the late Marlon Briscoe’s 55 year old Broncos rookie TD passing (14) record with 29. He improved throughout the season and played well early in the Wildcard playoff loss in Buffalo. This team is on the rise and watch for RB RJ Harvey as the season wears on.

The Kansas City Chiefs have fatigued and ran into a wall early in Super Bowl LIX which still lingers. Patrick Mahomes has his 5th starting Left Tackle in 5 years and his RT Jawaan Taylor  hasn’t improved has been struggling and could have had 30 false starts in 2024 has yet to improve. The officials are going to watch him closer and these penalties will sink a team that had 10 wins in 1 score games.

Having lost G Joe Thumey to the Bears, 2 of Mahomes 5 Offensive Linemen have been replaced since the Super Bowl.

With Xavier Worthy injured and Rashee Rice suspended for the first 6 games, the Chiefs have to lean on the running game with Isiah Pacheco & Kareem Hunt more. The issue is will Pacheco still run with the abandon he did before his latest injury.

Replacing KC in the 2025 playoffs will be Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers who just outdueled the Chiefs in week 1. Justin Herbert finally pulled off a win vs a quality opponent. He was 1-9 in his last 10 matchups with playoff teams. The win in Brazil over KC can go a long way to his maturing into the QB most of us thought he was on the way to being back in 2023.

The 1-0 Raiders looked solid in their win against the Patriots on opening day but lets face it, Geno Smith beat 2nd year starter Drake Maye. He won’t have the luxury of playing a rebuilding team every week. He does have 1st round pick Ashton Jeanty who The Chancellor believes will have a super rookie season. The Raiders without serious weapons at wideout must rely on the running game when they face better teams.

Geno’s history shows once teams have a bead on what he does he really struggles which will come back to haunt against the Broncos, Chargers, & Chiefs. Right now he doesn’t have enough offensive help outside Pro Bowl TE Brock Bowers. A steady performer but not specacular enough to win more than 6 games.

How far will Denver go in 2025? Well… stay tuned. Thanks for reading and please share the article.

2025 NFC West Preview!

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When you hear an aging quarterback is having aches and pains its one thing, but not practicing or playing in a preseason when the team’s biggest acquisition is a top flight receiver? Not good and when its the back of a 37 year old Matt Stafford, its impossible to look off the beating he took as qurterback of the Detroit Lions and recently out in Los Angeles.

A healthy  Matt Stafford and this team could make the NFC Championship however the crystal ball says he won’t and will succumb to missing 4 games this year due to a rising defense within the division.

NFC West 2025 Prediction:

  1. Arizona Cardinals 11-6 *
  2. Los Angeles Rams 9-8
  3. San Francisco 49ers 6-10
  4. Seattle Seahawks 3-14

With the addition of 2nd round selection CB Will Johnson, DT Calais Campbell, and DE Josh Sweat the Cardinals defense will vault from 21st into the top 10.

Johnson was college football’s best defensive back at Michigan and was skating to a top 10 selection until he was lost to injury in his last year. At 6’2 200 lbs, he has the physicality to face up with an “X” and the agility to blanket a “Z”. He is a 1 stepper that jumps routes with the best and has the chance to be the Cardinals best ever Corner. The kid is special.  Did you notice how many plays he made against All American Marvin Harrison Jr in the video? Those were huge Michigan v OSU matchups. Now they sharpen each other’s iron on the same team in the pros.

Josh Sweat should have been Super Bowl LIX MVP with his 2 1/2 sack performance against Mahomes back in February. He had my vote…  They need him to build off the 25 sacks garnered over the last 3 seasons playing in Philadelphia’s defensive rotation. Keep in mind his best season came in ’22 with 11.5 sacks playing for current Head Coach Jonathan Gannon when the Eagles played in Super Bowl LVII. The team with 70 sacks.

A lead dog pass rusher was what the Cardinals needed to force more turnovers and errant throws. Schematically their pass defense has been sound. In ’24 they were 14th against the pass but was 5th in fewest touchdowns allowed with 20. They plan on forcing more turnovers and creating short fields for the offense.

This is a make or break year for Kyler Murray and he has to show he can play within the specificity of the offense. Last year this team started 4-4 losing close games to Buffalo (34-28) and Detroit (20-13) when Murray played well. The growth has been steady and he has to put it all together and have Marvin Harrison Jr in his 2nd year where he is set to make a big leap to elite status. This team has the chance to start 6-0 this year and will win the West.

The 49ers brought back DC Robert Saleh but the defense has been rebuilt and no longer has the DLine rotation he enjoyed in his 1st stint. Fred Warner is there to lead a youthful unit but they will have some growing pains this year. Do you realize the 49ers are missing 7 defensive starters since Super Bowl XLVIII just a year and a half ago?

Brock Purdy got the big payday and now has to be the catalyst to San Francisco’s offense with TE Kittle and a Christian McCaffrey who was injury riddled in 2024 and has some serious mileage on his tires. 49ers brass traded for RB Brian Robinson to lighten the load. Keep in mind McCaffrey has missed 37 games due to leg injuries dating back to 2020 and if you notice, more workhorse style backs are who they bring in to spell him.

The loss of Deebo Samuel will be huge. Over the last 4 years he was the swiss army knife of the offense they could turn to when a critical 1st down was needed. He did it from the backfield, the slot, bubble screens, jet sweeps and reverses. Without him Purdy will be called on to make more throws when defenses will be expecting them. The limitations in his play that surfaced last year will be front and center without Deebo to mask deficiencies.

The Cardinals have a rough and rugged team and will emerge in the NFC West in 2025. They have to learn to win those games they have stayed close in the past. This is a lesson they will learn but they start the season with an extremely favorable schedule. Gannon’s team will cash in this season.

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