Tag Archives: Sean Payton

’25 AFC Divisonal Preview: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

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We’re locked in now where the rubber meets the road for NFL teams. All the promise and build up leads to this moment where plans are actualized on the field of battle and you’re rewarded with a berth in the conference championship game. In this instance, the Bills plight has morphed into Josh Allen’s career arc which needs a Super Bowl triumph to mark him as an all time great. Or do we get Sean Payton’s anointed resurrection from unfulfilled promise after his Super Bowl XLIV triumph has gathered dust on the shelf. That was nearly 16 years ago.

The question among most looking at this game is can Bo Nix make enough plays to fight off Josh Allen?? We’ll get back to this.

Bonito’s 14 sacks and Cooper with 8 have led one of the NFL’s greatest pass rushes.

The Denver defense leads the marquee having collected a team record 68 sacks, the NFL’s #2 ranking (4,730 yds allowed) and field the reigning NFLDPoY in Pat Surtain III. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and hold off this blood thirsty unit. Can they?? Well the Bills do come in with NFL rushing champion James Cook (1,621 yards/12TDs) and most forgot he ran for 121 against the Broncos in last year’s 31-7 Wildcard victory.

The matchup that will determine the game is OLB Nick Bonito vs LT Dion Dawkins. Bonito is 2nd in the NFL in ESPN’s pass rushing win rate while Buffalo’s line ranked 6th in pass blocking by PFF. Its imperative the Bills establish the run and play from a 2 TE alignment with Dalton Kincaid (39 rec. 571 yds 5tds) & Dawson Know (34 rec. 417 yds 4tds) to force Bonito to rush from further out as well as chip him when they do go out. The additional blocking aids Cook in rushing and contribute with key first down gaining receptions. The Bills will need to help Dawkins with the season on the line and have to establish Cook period.

Cook in last year’s wild card game against Denver.

One uneasy truth is the Broncos’ Bo Nix has struggled in the 2nd half of the season. He has 5 come from behind victories with the biggest the 33-32 chronicled here.

Yet when you look closely its occurred over the whole season. From that come from behind thriller over the Giants, Nix has gone 114 of 176 for 1,103 yds 9tds and 4 interceptions. His average per attempt is 6.2 yds and he has a passer rating of 89.6. Yet if you are new here I showed you how useless passer rating is and is easily manipulated with b.s. bubble screen completions.

Nix led the NFL with 612 attempts and only has thrown for 3,931 yards!?! Are you serious? In 1984 Dan Marino in 564 attempts threw for a then record 5,084 yds and 48 tds not the 25tds and 1,153 less yards. This isn’t effective as nix hasn’t passed the eyeball test over these last 5 weeks. In fact First Things First showed his position among NFL quarterbacks yesterday with this graphic:

These are not statistics of a QB that should win an AFC Divisional Playoff Game.

Can the Bills stop the run and force the game into Bo Nix’s hands? That is the question. If they can you do realize the Bills have the NFL’s 7th ranked defense only finishing 250 yards behind Denver (4,983 ot 4,730). While the Bills do not have a closer they will need someone to make 1 or 2 big plays to capture 1st half momentum.

In the end Josh Allen and the running attack needs to take control and they will. The Bills will be able to keep the Broncos pass rush at bay with sustained drives to wear them out and slow them with a short range passing attack. Not to pad stats but to move the chains and keep possession of the ball. Josh and the Bills will win this one in a slow steady approach winning 30-16 pulling away on a late touchdown.

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The Truth Behind Russell Wilson’s Benching

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The Broncos tried to make Russell Wilson restructure his contract and he didnt want to. They asked him in October and were trying to force his hand. This is why all the tension between Payton and Wilson aside from I dont think he cared for Wilson.

We never heard or saw sideline rants & tension when he had Taysom Hill or Tedy Bridgewater after Drew Brees.

Broncos brass tried to make him waive his injury clause so it would be easier to move him and they’d only owe the $37 million in 2024 guaranteed. Not the $33-37 million also due in 2025 if he gets injured. This is to make him tradeable but this press makes him less tradeable in my eyes.

Its a black eye for everyone involved and I think we’ll see a dispirited team hit the field. Players are human and know when it comes to business & the disrespect Wilson is being shown: “If it can happen to you ($250million) it can happen to me.” After this would you want to sign a big free agent contract in Denver?
You better believe players will be talking.

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Sean Payton… Your Mission, Should You Choose To Accept It

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Tell the truth Tuesday: The NFL is an arena that humbles successful coaches in 2nd tenures in new places. Most forget Hall of Fame Coach Jimmy Johnson’s last game was a 62-7 playoff loss to Jacksonville in ’99.
In 1989 Hall of Fame Coach Chuck Noll began 0-2 when he lost the opener at home 51-0 to Cleveland. Then fell 42-10 to the defending AFC Champion Bengals.
In 1990 Chuck Knox “Ground Chuck” in an attempt to modernize switched the Seattle Seahawk offense to “The Run n Shoot” and promptly began the season 0-3 and the club appeared lost on offense. Seattle was Knox’s 3rd Head Coaching gig.
While Johnson retired, both Knox and Noll rebounded with great in season turnarounds. Noll went 9-7, won a wildcard game in Houston before falling 24-23 in a divisional playoff in Denver. Just inches from the AFC Championship Game.
In one of the greatest coaching moves ever, Knox threw out the Run n Shoot playbook completely and went back to the playbook and formations they had been using for a decade plus. Yes… in week 4 scrapped everything!! The Seahawks went 9-4 the rest of the way to finish 9-7.
Payton will have to take solace here. His reputation is on the line and has to prove he still has the winning edge. A formula for success. Unlike Johnson he still has a lot of season left to make an imprint in 2023. It will not be easy. Losing 70-20 was a historic drubbing.
Well…. since 1960, Tuesday is film exchange day in the NFL, and right now the projectors are on in the Bronco facility. What changes will be made and what will be asked of the team?? Asked of Russell Wilson??
Professional reputations are on the line

Sean Payton Brought In to Fix Russell Wilson

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Back in the 1970’s Bum Phillips was being interviewed when he was asked to describe Hall of Fame Coach Don Shula. Bum in that southern drawl he had looked up and said “Don Shula can take his’n and beat your’n and then take your’n and beat his’n.” Meaning he could formulate a game plan and tailor it to the strength of the players he has no matter the opponent. A trait also shared with Bronco new Head Coach Sean Payton.

His reputation turning around quarterbacks and building a winning culture is why he came at such a hefty sum. Denver giving up another 1st and 2nd round draft pick to New Orleans to trade for his services. Many pundits are looking at what he did to turn Drew Brees career around and using this as a barometer. The Chancellor of Football has another subject in mind, mirroring what he has to do with Russ.

Kerry Collins was the 1st draft choice of the Carolina Panthers who never fulfilled his potential. The Panthers did make the NFC Championship his 2nd season in 1996, but that was a team fueled by NFL Defensive player of the year Kevin Greene, a suffocating defense and a balanced attack. Collins eventually flamed out throwing more interceptions (36) than touchdowns (23) the following 2 seasons.

After a drunk driving incident and the NFL sending him to rehab for alcohol abuse, he also had a racial incident with teammate Mushin Muhammad. Things internally went from bad to worse when he requested a trade and was released by Coach Dom Capers. Citing he had quit on the team. He was even let go after signing on and finishing the season with Mike Ditka’s Saints. These guys were desperate for a QB having traded their entire draft class for RB Ricky Williams.

This was the 1st ever draft choice of the Carolina Panther franchise who hit rock bottom. Five years after being selected he had two losing teams that didn’t want him and his reputation publicly and in NFL locker rooms couldn’t be worse.

Enter Sean Payton.

The Giants sign him in 99 to back up Kent Graham and he did see some action. He conquered his alcohol demons and began to play quarterback at a level greater than he had at any point in his career. He became the starter in 2000 and led the Giants to a 12-4 record and home field advantage for the best record in the conference. Collins was the NFL’s comeback player of the year. How much had he improved going into those playoffs?

  • Collins 1997: 200 of 381 (52.5%) 2,124 yds 11TDs 21 ints
  • Collins 2000: 311 of 529 (58.8%) 3,610 yds 22TDs 13 ints

All of this was happening under the watchful eye of a young Offensive Coordinator in Sean Payton. Through his tutelage Collins had grown from what many considered a game manager to one who could win shootouts if the Giants needed him to. He had never shown this type of promise at his prior stops. So this reclamation project at quarterback and young Offensive Coordinator headed into the 2000 playoffs. Experts were calling them the worst team to ever garner home field advantage. There were sexier choices like The Greatest Show on Turf Rams or the high flying Minnesota Vikings.

After a solid but unspectacular win in a playoff win against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sean Payton called his greatest game of his career in the next where he and Kerry Collins stunned the football world in the NFC Championship Game. A game where they were underdogs at home.

Collins went 23 of 34 for 338 yds and 4TDs in the 1st half alone. All of these were NFC/NFL championship records Joe Montana, Kurt Warner nor any could touch. His 4 1st half TDs broke the record of Sid Luckman. Yes, he broke a 57 year old record that had stood since 1943. He finished with 381 yards and didnt play from the midway point of the 3rd quarter up 41-0. His record of 381 yards stood until Matt Ryan broke it in the 2012 NFC Title Tilt.

Did I say the greatest game of Sean Payton’s career? In this historian’s eyes yes absolutely. Even with his Super Bowl XLIV win in tow because no one saw that type of performance coming. It put Sean Payton and Kerry Collins on the map for good. Payton through this experience where he led the Giants offense for 3 years making the postseason twice and his subsequent stop in Dallas primed him for his Saints tenure.

He then went on to directing Drew Brees to a Hall of Fame career, guiding Jameis Winston to a 5-2 record before injury and still winning with Tedy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill.

He has the pedigree and ability to formulate game plans and bring the best out of Russell Wilson. Especially coming from a position where Russ needs to rehab his reputation after an atrocious season. His lows aren’t to the degree that Kerry Collins were but now it should be football, X’s and O’s and all that fringe off the field nonsense takes a huge backseat. He’s got the quarterback whisperer now and the Denver Broncos should be off and running.

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2021 NFC South Previews & Predictions: Chance at Redemption

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One year after Tom Brady parted with Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, he won his 7th Super Bowl validating he had plenty left in his tank. Is it possible for lightning to strike twice?? After all this is the 1st team to return all 22 starters from a championship team in nearly 40 years. In most football circles the Bucs are the talk to make it to Super Bowl LVI out in Sofi Stadium.

Feb 7, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

However The Chancellor’s crystal ball is focused elsewhere in the division. For once upon a time there was a quarterback whisperer at coach who resurrected the career of a former starter who hadn’t met expectations. Yes we’re talking about Sean Payton of the New Orleans Saints and no we’re not talking Drew Brees. We’ll get to that…

2021 NFC North Predictions

  1. New Orleans Saints 13-4*
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12-5**
  3. Atlanta Falcons 6-11
  4. Carolina Panthers 4-13

Tampa has to absorb every team’s best effort as they were forced to in the 31-29 opener against Dallas. In the next 7 weeks Brady, Gronk, Evans and the Bucs face 3 of the top 11 defenses from 2020.  Two of which are on the road where they face last year’s #1 ranked Rams with Aaron Donald and the Saints defense which finished 4th. 

In two of others, they face the Patriots on the road who finished #1 in defense in 2019 before having 8 defenders opt out last year. The other is the Chicago Bears who sacked Brady 3 times and punished the offense on a Monday Night winning 20-19.  Ohhh… check that former Taylor Blitz Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack sacked Brady on 3 occasions himself:

We had to remind you more than just Super Bowl LV was played and the Bucs offense has been bullied before. Other pundits have blinded you with ridiculous talk of the Bucs going undefeated but the fire breathing defenses the champs will face in these first 8 games will ensure 3 to 4 losses by the midway point. These teams will be taking their best shots when relatively healthy.

Heavy is the head that wears the crown and the offensive line will see former DPOY in Mack, Aaron Donald and throw in a Cam Jordan of New Orleans for good  measure. This offensive line has several sleepless nights coming this fall. These teams also reflect 4 of Tampa’s losses last year.

What will keep Tampa afloat and spur on a late season surge is Devin White and their 6th ranked defense. Between White (140 tackles/9 sacks) and Lavonte David (117 tackles /3 f.fumbles) this team has the most active set of linebackers in football. Once you combine DT Vita Vea, and interchangeable OLBs Jason Pierre Paul and 2019 Taylor Blitz Defensive Player of the Year Shaq Barrett this might be football’s best front 7. The Achille’s Heal is the play and health of their secondary. 

Tampa will make the playoffs and have a chance to defend their title. 

However there is a serious threat within the division seething over the Bucs hoisting the Lombardi Trophy last year. Its the New Orleans Saints. Fueled with the knowledge they had swept Tampa last year and former Bucs LB Kwon Alexander and QB Jameis Winston had to eat it and watch their former team become champions without them. 

Furthermore this group still hasn’t gotten over the horrible non interference call in the 2019 NFC Championship vs the Rams, or the Minneapolis Miracle in another heart breaking playoff loss in ’18. Sean Payton, Winston and everyone within that organization believe the Bucs stole their trophy last February. Sending Drew Brees, the NFL’s all time leading passer into retirement without a 2nd championship. 

Yet when you really take a look back an older Brees just couldnt throw the ball deep anymore and that allowed Saints opponents to clamp down on all patterns under 25 yards. 

Its up to the quarterback whisperer Sean Payton to work his magic a 3rd time. A 3rd time?? Yes… a 3rd time. Payton’s greatest work in sculpting a championship quarterback came before Drew Brees. Remember Kerry Collins??

Collins teamed with KiJana Carter on an undefeated Penn St team from 1994 and Kerry was the 1st franchise QB for the Carolina Panthers. Their 1st ever draft pick. He had moderate stats playing for a defensive minded Dom Capers in a conservative offense. They made the ’96 NFC Championship led by the late Kevin Greene, Lamar Lathon and a blood thirsty defense. Collins only threw for 14TDs that season.

Collins flamed out and after a series of personal battles found himself with a young offensive coordinator named Sean Payton in New York. Under his tutelage, Collins went from averaging 2300 yards per season to 3800 over 3 seasons. The crowning gem was the 2000 NFC Championship Game where Collins who was never expected to be a great pinpoint passer, set records for 1st half points, passing yards and passing TDs with both 4 in a half & 5 in a game. It was Payton’s masterpiece as Collins threw his 5th TD with 12:52 left in the 3rd quarter and the Giants were up 41-0 and began to remove starters. Collins could have thrown for 11 TDs in that game it was that lopsided:

Only Collins and Sid Luckman have thrown 5TDs in an NFL or NFC Championship Game… from 1933-2021. 

We have to apologize as we had to lend visual context to understand how spectacular a passing performance Collins put on under Payton’s guidance. Then go through the NFL’s All Time leading passer in Drew Brees and now you come to Jameis Winston.

Winston is clearly a greater passer than Kerry Collins as he was a Heisman Trophy Winner at Florida State when he threw for 4,000 yards and 40TDs as a freshman. Yes a freshman. Remember him winning the National Championship in front of 110,000 out in the Rose Bowl to conclude that year?? Funny how the media …keeps forgetting to show that yet I digress. 

What will Sean Payton be able to sculpt as he has a 5,000 yard passer with 30TDs in his last full season from Winston?? If Payton could reach NFL record heights with Brees, championship heights with both Collins and Brees what can he do with … hold on…. wait a second… “this just in” *Ahem* Jameis Winston throws for 5 touchdowns in a 38-3 drubbing of Green Bay!

Where was I? New Orleans will win the NFC South and the question is how far can Payton go with Winston?? Alvin Kamara will have a 1,000/1,000 yard season now that Latavius Murray signed with Baltimore. By the time teams begin to figure out New Orleans Payton will decide what to do with NFL single season reception record holder Michael Thomas coming off injury.

Stacked and motivated!

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NFL Playoffs & Historically Bad Calls Take Two

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During each postseason every football fan dreads a moment where the game is decided by the referees and not the players on the field. We think back to “The Tuck Rule”, Mike Renfro’s catch/non catch in the ’79 AFC Championship, or Bert Emanuel’s catch/non catch in the NFC Championship. Yet yesterday for the 1st time since Referee Jim Tunney made the call after Renfro’s catch had a nationally televised audience yelling in anguish at a moment instant replay could have corrected.

Sean Payton despairs over one of the most egregious non calls in NFL history.

Football coaches and players at all levels will tell you “The eye in the sky doesn’t lie” meaning the truth is always caught on film. It’s there for teams to study film against an opponent or the camera can catch what has been missed by the naked eye of an out of place referee. On Sunday we were stricken with two occasions that marred both conference championship games.

Which raises some questions for the NFL:

  • Why can’t penalties or missed penalties like pass interference be reviewed??
  • Why can’t a team challenge a play during the last two minutes of a ball game when it’s the most important time of the contest??
  • Why does the ruling in under 2 minutes to go take place in a backroom at the NFL’s offices and not an official on the field in the arena??

Lets take a look at the 1st in the NFC Championship. With just 1:49 to go in a 20-20 tie at the 13 yard line, Drew Brees faced a 3rd and 10. Brees threw toward the near sideline to Tommylee Lewis who had run a wheel route out of the backfield when… and here it is in real time:

Coach Sean Payton screaming at the official withstanding, there were several penalties that could have and should have been called.

  • Pass Interference: Robey-Coleman never turned to locate the ball colliding with Lewis before the ball arrived.
  • Personal Foul: Blow to the head of a receiver reaching for the football.
  • Illegal Contact: As Robey-Coleman hit Lewis at the 6 yard line, 7 yards from the line of scrimmage. You’re only allowed to chuck a receiver 5 yards downfield or under.

The fact we’re talking the final minutes of a conference championship game on the line and a Super Bowl berth at stake, this is one of the worst outcomes in the history of the league.  The fact you had Fox analyst Mike Pereira, who is the former Vice President of Officiating for the NFL right there expressing there could have been two of the penalties I just highlighted lent to a national televised audience despair with the situation. Let alone the emotional release of the Super Dome crowd who was witnessing “the great train robbery.” With booing you could have heard across state lines in Mississippi.

Our minds as fans were just coming to grips with the fiasco in New Orleans and the NFC Championship when the AFC Title Tilt reached the 4th quarter. With 7:05 to go in the game Kansas City held the momentum and a 21-17 lead when Chris Jones was flagged for a “roughing the passer” penalty. It was such a bad call both Jim Nantz and Tony Romo were in the middle of professing it was a phantom call when former NFL official Gene Sterratore offered this commentary:

Andy Reid should have been allowed to challenge that personal foul call!!

Now we have to talk about what needs to be done in this situation. First where has Roger Goodell been in the midst of one of the worst scandals in the history of the NFL?? His silence is glaring during a week when the league’s integrity is being called into question. With a Super Bowl on the line, these calls to put what many feel to be the match-up the league office wanted to see makes this the equivalent of the Black Sox Scandal in baseball a century earlier. If the Los Angeles Rams were to win down in Atlanta next Sunday, the NFL could wind up with it’s first champion with claims against it’s legitimacy.

There are several precedents that should have taken place. Goodell should have stepped in and had the final 1:49 of that game replayed. However he didnt and we have to guard the integrity of the game and remove the league office from the involvement of any contest while it’s going on. The league office controlling the official instant replay calls with 2:00 or under has always been a sore spot of contention anyway.

#1. The official in charge of the game to make any and all decisions need to be in charge of the game. Not some nefarious figure in the NFL office. What difference does it make to change a call in the 1st quarter if you’re derailed by an untimely call at the most important juncture of the game??

#2. Open Instant Replay challenges to three (per half) to all coaches and allow challenges at any and all times of the game. This needs to be opened up to challenge penalties called on the field and any 15 yard foul or defensive penalty that carries the weight of an automatic first down whether called or not called.

#3. The NFL needs to move to assigning officiating crews who have worked together all year to oversee playoff games. Not an all star crew. This way these officials know how to work together and communicate verbal and non-verbal along with confidently conferring with each official before making a big call in an important juncture of a playoff game.

The purpose of instant replay as an officiating tool is to get the call right. Ironically the day before these events, The Chancellor heard from Jim Tunney “The Dean of NFL Referees” about the controversial call in the ’79 AFC Championship his crew made on Mike Renfro’s catch/no catch that gave berth to the first incarnation of instant replay in officiating:

Here is what Jim Tunney offered as an explanation: 

That scenario offered finality in knowing Tunney and his officials made the call on the field that day. As a historian I’ve never been able to speak on the Steelers as Super Bowl XIV champions and I doubt I would be able to do so if the Rams win it next Sunday.

However we need to see changes and the NFL needs to guard it’s integrity by letting the officials and an instant replay official on-site make every call concerning any contest. Blown calls need to be reversed even when it comes to a penalty being called or reversing a call where a flag had been thrown. Too much is at stake here.

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