2021 NFC South Previews & Predictions: Chance at Redemption

One year after Tom Brady parted with Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, he won his 7th Super Bowl validating he had plenty left in his tank. Is it possible for lightning to strike twice?? After all this is the 1st team to return all 22 starters from a championship team in nearly 40 years. In most football circles the Bucs are the talk to make it to Super Bowl LVI out in Sofi Stadium.

Feb 7, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

However The Chancellor’s crystal ball is focused elsewhere in the division. For once upon a time there was a quarterback whisperer at coach who resurrected the career of a former starter who hadn’t met expectations. Yes we’re talking about Sean Payton of the New Orleans Saints and no we’re not talking Drew Brees. We’ll get to that…

2021 NFC North Predictions

  1. New Orleans Saints 13-4*
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12-5**
  3. Atlanta Falcons 6-11
  4. Carolina Panthers 4-13

Tampa has to absorb every team’s best effort as they were forced to in the 31-29 opener against Dallas. In the next 7 weeks Brady, Gronk, Evans and the Bucs face 3 of the top 11 defenses from 2020.  Two of which are on the road where they face last year’s #1 ranked Rams with Aaron Donald and the Saints defense which finished 4th. 

In two of others, they face the Patriots on the road who finished #1 in defense in 2019 before having 8 defenders opt out last year. The other is the Chicago Bears who sacked Brady 3 times and punished the offense on a Monday Night winning 20-19.  Ohhh… check that former Taylor Blitz Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack sacked Brady on 3 occasions himself:

We had to remind you more than just Super Bowl LV was played and the Bucs offense has been bullied before. Other pundits have blinded you with ridiculous talk of the Bucs going undefeated but the fire breathing defenses the champs will face in these first 8 games will ensure 3 to 4 losses by the midway point. These teams will be taking their best shots when relatively healthy.

Heavy is the head that wears the crown and the offensive line will see former DPOY in Mack, Aaron Donald and throw in a Cam Jordan of New Orleans for good  measure. This offensive line has several sleepless nights coming this fall. These teams also reflect 4 of Tampa’s losses last year.

What will keep Tampa afloat and spur on a late season surge is Devin White and their 6th ranked defense. Between White (140 tackles/9 sacks) and Lavonte David (117 tackles /3 f.fumbles) this team has the most active set of linebackers in football. Once you combine DT Vita Vea, and interchangeable OLBs Jason Pierre Paul and 2019 Taylor Blitz Defensive Player of the Year Shaq Barrett this might be football’s best front 7. The Achille’s Heal is the play and health of their secondary. 

Tampa will make the playoffs and have a chance to defend their title. 

However there is a serious threat within the division seething over the Bucs hoisting the Lombardi Trophy last year. Its the New Orleans Saints. Fueled with the knowledge they had swept Tampa last year and former Bucs LB Kwon Alexander and QB Jameis Winston had to eat it and watch their former team become champions without them. 

Furthermore this group still hasn’t gotten over the horrible non interference call in the 2019 NFC Championship vs the Rams, or the Minneapolis Miracle in another heart breaking playoff loss in ’18. Sean Payton, Winston and everyone within that organization believe the Bucs stole their trophy last February. Sending Drew Brees, the NFL’s all time leading passer into retirement without a 2nd championship. 

Yet when you really take a look back an older Brees just couldnt throw the ball deep anymore and that allowed Saints opponents to clamp down on all patterns under 25 yards. 

Its up to the quarterback whisperer Sean Payton to work his magic a 3rd time. A 3rd time?? Yes… a 3rd time. Payton’s greatest work in sculpting a championship quarterback came before Drew Brees. Remember Kerry Collins??

Collins teamed with KiJana Carter on an undefeated Penn St team from 1994 and Kerry was the 1st franchise QB for the Carolina Panthers. Their 1st ever draft pick. He had moderate stats playing for a defensive minded Dom Capers in a conservative offense. They made the ’96 NFC Championship led by the late Kevin Greene, Lamar Lathon and a blood thirsty defense. Collins only threw for 14TDs that season.

Collins flamed out and after a series of personal battles found himself with a young offensive coordinator named Sean Payton in New York. Under his tutelage, Collins went from averaging 2300 yards per season to 3800 over 3 seasons. The crowning gem was the 2000 NFC Championship Game where Collins who was never expected to be a great pinpoint passer, set records for 1st half points, passing yards and passing TDs with both 4 in a half & 5 in a game. It was Payton’s masterpiece as Collins threw his 5th TD with 12:52 left in the 3rd quarter and the Giants were up 41-0 and began to remove starters. Collins could have thrown for 11 TDs in that game it was that lopsided:

Only Collins and Sid Luckman have thrown 5TDs in an NFL or NFC Championship Game… from 1933-2021. 

We have to apologize as we had to lend visual context to understand how spectacular a passing performance Collins put on under Payton’s guidance. Then go through the NFL’s All Time leading passer in Drew Brees and now you come to Jameis Winston.

Winston is clearly a greater passer than Kerry Collins as he was a Heisman Trophy Winner at Florida State when he threw for 4,000 yards and 40TDs as a freshman. Yes a freshman. Remember him winning the National Championship in front of 110,000 out in the Rose Bowl to conclude that year?? Funny how the media …keeps forgetting to show that yet I digress. 

What will Sean Payton be able to sculpt as he has a 5,000 yard passer with 30TDs in his last full season from Winston?? If Payton could reach NFL record heights with Brees, championship heights with both Collins and Brees what can he do with … hold on…. wait a second… “this just in” *Ahem* Jameis Winston throws for 5 touchdowns in a 38-3 drubbing of Green Bay!

Where was I? New Orleans will win the NFC South and the question is how far can Payton go with Winston?? Alvin Kamara will have a 1,000/1,000 yard season now that Latavius Murray signed with Baltimore. By the time teams begin to figure out New Orleans Payton will decide what to do with NFL single season reception record holder Michael Thomas coming off injury.

Stacked and motivated!

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The 2018 Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year – Khalil Mack

With the NFL’s second season upon us we have to look back to the team and players who made the 2018 season. Keep in mind this blog is about defense and the unheralded players appreciated by the rank and file. Yet bookending a season where Taylor Blitz & The Chancellor was there for the induction ceremony for our 1st subject written for the PFHoF in Robert Brazile, it’s with great pride to announce the 1st 2 time Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year in Chicago Bear Khalil Mack.

Mack made his presence felt the second he put on a Bears uniform.

Mack bested ’17 Taylor Blitz DoY Aaron Donald for this honor based upon his ability to show up in important games and the domino affect he has had on a division and a conference.

Dating back to a 2010 loss to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship, the Bears were 2-12 against them while Aaron Rodgers and company won the NFC North 5 times. The Bears either finished 3rd or last in all 7 of those years.

The Bears trade for Mack and sign him on Sept 2nd and one week later & not in football playing shape introduced himself in week 1 on Sunday Night Football.

Mack dazzled a national audience becoming the 1st defensive player in NFL history to record a tackle, a sack, force a fumble, recover a fumble and return an interception for a touchdown in the same game. On one of his 5 hurries forced Rodgers into a sack that knocked him out for much of the game as the Bears forged to a 20-0 lead in front of a shocked and silenced Lambeau Field. His impact on that game far exceeded his 3 tackles, sack, forced fumble and TD on an interception return. Although they lost 23-22 to their NFC North antagonist, the mantle of dominance shifted to Chicago from Green Bay on that day.

Mack shifted the entire focus of opponents blocking schemes.

The following week against perennial NFC West force Seattle he terrorized Russell Wilson sacking him once, forced a fumble, 5 tackles and another tackle for loss. Yet with all the attention focused on Mack, the Bears integrated 1st round draft pick Roquan Smith into the lineup and the Bears chased Wilson into 6 sacks. A monster defense was born.

The affect both of these games had on Sunday night in primetime was immense. Not only did Mack infuse confidence and swagger into his team, opposing teams had to adjust their blocking schemes to accommodate him. Where was he lining up?? We even warned in our week 1 preview: All of a sudden the 2016 Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year & NFL Defensive Player of the Year lands in an NFC North without a Pro Bowl Tackle and you don’t think it will be an issue??

The clincher was another big game where the 9-3 Bears, still battling for respect, hosted the 11-1 Rams and 2017 Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Where Donald was neutralized Mack had another 3 tackles, sack and forced fumble as the Rams #2 offense was held to 214 yards and 6 points. By far these were their season lows as the Bears announced they were for real. On two of Jared Goff’s 4 interceptions he was hurried by #52.

Mack’s performance has raised the NFL’s 10th ranked defense in 2017 to a ranking of 3rd while garnering 50 sacks. This also ranks 3rd. The Bears won the NFC North for the first time since 2010 and host the defending champion Eagles this weekend. They will do so with a terrorist to come off the corner in Khalil Mack.

For good measure the Bears won the NFC North with a 24-17 win over Green Bay in front of a frenzied Soldier Field. Mack had 6 tackles and 2.5 sacks as the Bears eliminated the Packers from the playoffs and soon after fired Coach Mike McCarthy. The changing of the guard was complete.

Mack finished with 47 tackles, 10 for loss, 6 forced fumbles, 4 recoveries and an interception for a touchdown. His best performances came against Chicago’s superior competition where Aaron Donald disappeared in games the Rams lost.

Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year recipients:

  1. 2011 -D’Qwell Jackson: Cleveland Browns – Recorded 158 total tackles (115 solo) 3.5 dqwell-jackson-11sacks, 1 forced fumble with 2 recoveries and garnered 1 interception as the only light on a 4-12 team. The Browns were in the top ten defensively all year and finished 10th.
  2. 2012 –Navorro Bowman: San Francisco 49ers – Garnered 148 total tackles (98 solo) 2 sacks, 6 passes defensed, and 1 interception with a fumble forced. Was an All Pro force who outperformed his more celebrated All Pro teammate Patrick Willis. Starred on the NFL’s #3 defense and made the play of the year knocking down a 4th down pass to Roddy White on the last play of the NFC Championship Game. Sent the Niners to the Super Bowl.
  3. 2013 – Richard Sherman: Seattle Seahawks – He led the NFL with 8 interceptions, returning them for 158 yards and a week 4 TD against Houston that turned their season around. He also had 48 tackles, defensed 17 passes, recovered 2 fumbles and tipped Colin Kaepernick’s desperation throw into the game clinching interception in the NFC Championship Game.
  4. watt2014 – J.J. Watt: Houston Texans – One of the greatest defensive performances ever with 78 tackles, led the league with 20.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 5 recoveries returning 1 for a touchdown. Then had 1 interception returned 80 yards for his 2nd defensive touchdown. He drug a rebuilding Texan team to within a game of making the  playoffs with a 9-7 record in Bill O’Brien’s rookie season. May have been the greatest season by a defender in NFL history.
  5. 2015 – Thomas Davis: Carolina Panthers – The 6th best defense in 2015 & made it to Super Bowl L where Davis played with a plate in his broken arm just 2 weeks after the original injury. Toughness aside he garnered 105 total tackles (75 solo) 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 4 interceptions, and 2 fumble recoveries. Although his teammate Luke Kuechly garnered national media attention, the 4 additional sacks and 2 more forced fumble won Davis the Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year Award.
  6. 2016 – Khalil Mack – Mack’s season has been transcendent as he collected 55 tackles (46 solo) 11 sacks with 5 forced fumbles. He’s recovered 3, returning 1 for a touchdown before we remind you he has 1 pick for another touchdown that also came in the win over Carolina. These are huge impact plays that decide contests not innocuous stats in the middle of a game without meaning or context. In the last 2 seasons he has 14 sacks that have come in the 3rd & 4th quarter of games.
  7. 2017 – Aaron Donald – Despite missing 2 games, Donald forced 5 fumbles in his 11.5 sacks and had 15 tackles for loss. Keep in mind he held out all of the preseason awaiting a new contract. Imagine had he been in game shape in week one??

Congratulations to Khalil Mack and his Bears have a big game with Philadelphia tomorrow… will he have another big game performance himself??

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The 2018 Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year Preview: Aaron Donald

When the Rams left St Louis to return to Tinseltown it was hard to think of a defensive team or dominant defensive player to rise from the ranks as one of the league’s best. Yet the reigning Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald is leading the league in sacks with 16.5 and has been the only consistent Ram defender this year.

Donald tracks down Russell Wilson

With all the high profile signings of DT Ndamukong Suh, Aquib Talib and Marcus Peters this defense was supposed to sprint to Super Bowl LIII with the balance of a potent offense. At times Suh has been handled by rival lines and not the force he’s been in years past. Talib has missed 8 games due to injury and Peters has been scorched over the last 7 weeks.

Even DE Dante Fowler’s play (2 sacks) has cooled after his mid-season trade from Jacksonville.

Although Donald was held at bay against Philadelphia and Chicago, he wreaked havoc against Detroit in the Rams last win 3 weeks back. Donald terrorized the Lion’s front line for 4 hits on Matthew Stafford, another 4 tackles for loss and 2 sacks and a forced fumble. That performance in a 30-16 win propelled the Rams to 11-1 and a 2nd straight NFC West championship.

The most disruptive DT since John Randle or Warren Sapp.

As Donald goes so go the Rams. One glaring stat that pops up is of his league leading 19.5 sacks, none have come in the 3 losses to New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Chicago. He did hit Drew Brees 4 times in a 45-35 loss however not enough to slow the Saints down.

Yesterday he set the single season team record after a 3 sack performance in a 31-9 win over the Cardinals. He left a lasting impression on rookie QB Josh Rosen. Yet will he show up to dominate the big game come playoff time??

He is the leader of an underachieving defense that began the season with Super Bowl aspirations. He has his sights on breaking Hall of Famer Michael Strahan’s sack record of 22.5. All that stands in his way is a 49ers front line that Donald killed garnering 4 sacks, 8 tackles and another 5 hits on QB C. .J. Beathard.

If Donald gets the record it’s going to be hard to not give it to him. He’ll be the first to win our Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year in back to back seasons. Stay tuned.

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