NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Well here we are again for the third time during the 2013 season, this time with a trip to Super Bowl XLVIII at stake. We named the first battle Ali v. Frazier I in week 2 of the regular season and now it’s time to get ready for The Rumble in The Jungle or Ali v Frazier III

The game NFL fans have anticipated since last year's NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs.

The game NFL fans have anticipated since last year’s NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs.

A gem of a defensive battle looms in the Pacific Northwest between two teams whose coaches hate one another from back in their college days a few years back. This game will boil down to the defense that forces the first turnover.

The George Halas Trophy.

The George Halas Trophy.

Although the Seahawks aren’t asking much from Russell Wilson, he has to play better than he did against New Orleans. He will have to make a few plays on the go while they establish the running game. The exact same thing holds true with Colin Kaepernick.

The one wild card is Anquan Boldin. He is the one player the 49ers have that can change the game. He looks to make plays when the team needs him most. Yet he has to make the most of his opportunities. There won’t be many against Seattle’s secondary.

Seattle has been our pick to win the Super Bowl since last January and nothing has changed. This is one of the finest defenses in modern football history which will take them to the Super Bowl if the offense doesn’t turn the football over. For the 49ers to win they have to force turnovers early and take the crowd out of it. However the Seahawks will run the football and play a tight game and allow the defense to play on a long field.

In the end….we have to stay the course with Seattle in a 26-16 win tonight.

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AFC Divisional Playoff: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

The last game of the National Football League’s divisional round of the playoffs. All week long we have heard two camps: The pundits who always say Peyton Manning can do no wrong. In the other the question is being raised on the legitimacy of his legacy having lost so many times in the playoffs in his first game. Did you know that Joe Montana only lost four times in the playoffs in his first game?? Peyton has double that with 8. How is Manning being called the greatest ever quarterback again?? Yet I digress…

Phillip River's team has beaten Manning led teams twice in the playoffs in the past.

Phillip River’s team has beaten Manning led teams twice in the playoffs in the past.

One amazing aspect is if you go back to the beginning of the 2012 season, it was up in the air how the Manning tenure in Denver was going to go. They were 2-3 when they were down 24-0 to the San Diego Chargers. Phillip Rivers was having his customary good game when the wheels came off. Denver roared back to win 35-24. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201210150sdg.htm The Broncos went on to win the final 11 games of the season while San Diego lost 7 of their last 11. They even lost their coach as Norv Turner was fired.

So the Chargers brought in the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator when they made Mike McCoy their head coach. You don’t think he brought information with him to Southern Cal playbook information?? You don’t think that Chargers defense doesn’t know Bronco tendencies and formations?

The Chargers quite frankly shouldn’t be here. They struggled against a Chiefs team that was playing mostly back-ups. Yet here they are playing with house money. They ran the football 40 times in the upset of Cincinnati and now they get to rematch and close the circle against Manning and the Broncos. Did you know that Phillip Rivers is 6-2 v Denver?? The key to San Diego winning at Invesco Field is to run the football like that with Ryan Matthews again. Without Von Miller and Kevin Vickerson, the Bronco defense is missing a lot of firepower v the pass and the run.

Ryan Matthews is the key to this football game.

Ryan Matthews is the key to this football game.

For the Broncos they have to run the ball 40 times themselves and take the ball out of Manning’s hands a little. Remember Super Bowl XXXVII when Jon Gruden taught the Buccaneers every tendency of his former quarterback and team in Rich Gannon and the Raiders?? Turned out great for the Bucs in that Super Bowl triumph. We think the same thing is going to happen here. Remember the Chargers are riding a 5 game winning streak. In an upset the Chargers win 30-24.

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NFC Divisional Playoff: San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

This is the one playoff game this weekend that could have been interesting. With Carolina wideout Steve Smith at 60% by his own admission, or at least doubtful, it takes steam out of this match-up. Smith is the conscious and fighting spirit of that football team. Although the league’s #2 defense is intact, this team peaked a few weeks ago.

Cam Newton is going into his first NFL playoff game.

Cam Newton is going into his first NFL playoff game.

Cam Newton can’t play sporadic and expect the defense to keep him in a playoff game until he finds his accuracy. Sure they won 10-9 in Candlestick but that really woke the Niners up for this one. In that previous game Vernon Davis left injured, Michael Crabtree didn’t play, and Aldon Smith was just coming back and rounding into shape. Colin Kaepernick is coming off of a third career playoff win and they haven’t lost since Crabtree has come back.

The best all around linebacker in the NFL. Last year's Taylor Blitz Defensive Player of the Year: Navorro Bowman

The best all around linebacker in the NFL. Last year’s Taylor Blitz Defensive Player of the Year: Navorro Bowman

One element of this game is the threat of the pass from the Tight End position. Vernon Davis has the speed to pull Luke Kuechely deep where he has to play the run honestly. Consequently Greg Olsen doesn’t do the same and Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman will creep up and shut down the run.

So watch for Frank Gore to have a good day and San Francisco to dominate the time of possession. The Niners win 26-13 today.

Even when I think back to Cam Newton’s National Championship performance against Oregon. His play that day wasn’t transcendent. Stars have to come out when the games get big like this. Weaknesses are magnified and without Smith 100%, he has to play above a pedestrian performance. He has to be a star for them to win. Just can’t see that in his first playoff game.

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The Chancellor’s Take on Peyton Manning

The old NFL logo

The old NFL logo

When it comes to NFL football no one has watched more games and studied the game more than The Chancellor of Football. It has always been the great escape for me to study the players, analyze games, dissect teams and playing styles of different eras. I can think back to the early 80’s when someone was watching “The Cosby Show” in the other room, I had a ton of paper out drawing up the “46 defense” and studying Bears games I recorded over in mine.

If I didn’t have a football video game going, I was outside playing it with friends. All  the while my mind was studying the nuances of the game. Then the study migrated to understanding the dynamics of coaches, the sociological aspects of football, the psyche of players, and the psychological make up of a team. What made the player tick…and why certain players received the coverage they did.

One of the real reasons I have been such a harsh Peyton Manning critic is the Alpha or Beta quarterback argument. He’s proven to be an alpha quarterback obviously but I wasn’t going to give him a pass because he was Archie’s son the way the mainstream media did.  I have never been a media darling type. I abhor it. The reason I gravitated to sports and football in general from the beginning was the exploits the athletes made were earned on the field of endeavor. Not what someone made up for them like a Hollywood movie or covered favorably when others are tortured by media types for the same short comings. Take a look at this comment from Facebook earlier when I described Matt Schaub in yesterday’s article. The Beta Quarterback.

“To come off this list you have to start winning the big games. I knew Schaub would regress for one simple reason. He NEVER beat the bully on his block. The Indianapolis Colts own him and even retooled on the run. He NEVER bested the Colts in significant games while Peyton Manning was there and now a whole new regime is in place and he still hasn’t grown. Pundits started to pick the Texans as a possible Super Bowl team because of other talent on the squad. Truth is…he’s a beta qb until he proves it beating good teams like Joe Flacco did last year. Only one way past the bully…you have to kick his ass…. If you don’t, you remain in this twilight.”

Peyton Manning with his college coach Phil Fulmer.

Peyton Manning with his college coach Phil Fulmer.

Think back to Peyton Manning’s inability to beat Florida when he was at Tennessee. The Chancellor of Football watched “the next big thing” all throughout his college career. I still have the highlights recorded when he and Jay Graham powered past Eddie George, Terry Glenn and the 4th ranked Buckeyes in the Outback Bowl in 1996…yet I digress

The fundamental flaw to NEVER take down your bully on your block goes with you psychologically for a lifetime. That bully is just substituted later by other people. i.e. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Yet in his coverage the mainstream media wanted to “make” him a champion before he became one.

What got his career launched is he played with 3 Hall of Fame talents that didn’t get the credit for it. Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison. Faulk, who in 1998 nearly had the same stats as he did when the St Louis Rams won it all in 1999. He had 1319 yards to go with 86 receptions and 908 more yards and 10 TDs. Sure a baby faced rookie Manning showed promise, but he threw a rookie record 28 interceptions. Yet you didn’t hear of that through the mainstream media. However Kurt Warner in 1999, who had never started in the NFL won the Super Bowl the following season with Faulk.

Marshll had been relieved of duty when the Colts traded him to the Rams to so they could draft Edgerrin James. In 1999, James became the first rookie to lead the NFL in  rushing in nearly 20 years. In fact he joined Jim Brown, Earl Campell, and Eric Dickerson as the only runners to lead the league in rushing in their first two seasons. That is dating back to 1957. Yet all the coverage went to Manning as though Edgerrin wasn’t even there. James is one of only 3 running backs (Barry Sanders & Eric Dickerson) to have 4 seasons of over 1,500 yards rushing yet when we suggest he’s a Hall of Fame player, some scoff at the notion. Why?? All the coverage was on Peyton Manning and the mainstream media NEVER fed this information to the football masses. Never. He also went on to a Super Bowl without Manning with Kurt Warner ironically in Arizona 2008.

Then you have the quiet Marvin Harrison. Although the end of his career was somewhat shrouded with the backdrop of a gang related shooting death. This performer is the current record holder for receptions in an NFL season with 143 in 2002, and caught 1,102 passes for 14,580 yards and 128 touchdowns during his career. Just about the same as new Hall of Fame enshrinee Cris Carter, and finally we’re hearing about his Pro Football Hall of Fame candidacy. This was a #1 draft pick and All America talent at Syracuse catching passes from Donovan McNabb. Yet here is another that rarely received coverage because Manning was the national media’s end all be all when it came to covering the Indianapolis Colts.

The biggest issue is how the media chose to cover him as they thought he would be and not cover him fairly for how he performed. His first forays into the playoffs were underwhelming to say the least. In ’99 when they were the 2nd seed, they only managed 13 at home in a loss to the Titans. Three years later came the worst playoff loss of this millenia in a 41-0 loss to the New York Jets in the Meadowlands. Ironically the site of this year’s Super Bowl. They only gained 167 yards total in that game which was nearly a record low performance. Yet you never heard of these performances or the fact he has a record 11 playoff losses. Why?? Too much jock sniffing by the national media. Guys who wished they were Peyton Manning instead of just covering him.

One of the reasons you're seeing a record breaking season for Manning started here. The 2003 AFC Championship Game.

One of the reasons you’re seeing a record breaking season for Manning started here. The 2003 AFC Championship Game.

Keep in mind he was favored in Super Bowl XLIV and fell behind the New Orleans Saints. Marching for the tying touchdown in the fourth quarter he threw the pick six to Tracy Porter to seal the Colts fate. What would the media have said had that been Eli Manning?? Tony Romo?? Jay Cutler?? They would have buried him like he was Rex Grossman. You have to keep in mind the NFL offices pay attention to media coverage. We saw how much sway media had when the Colts lost the 2003 AFC Championship 24-14 to Brady’s Patriots.

The immediate coverage was on how the Patriots held their receivers and stretched the 5 yard “chuck zone” further downfield. Complaints from the Colts were all over ESPN and dominated the airwaves leading into Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Patriots and Panthers. Ironically they set a Super Bowl record with both quarterbacks throwing for more than 300 yards for the first time in history.

That off-season the NFL stated they were going to reinforce that rule just because of the complaints from Manning and the Colts. No one was able to touch his receivers without a flag and ironically this was the season he broke Marino’s touchdown record of 48. Funny, he couldn’t come within 16 touchdowns of it in his 6 previous seasons.

Is Manning a Hall of Fame??? Absolutely

Is Manning a Hall of Famer??? Absolutely

The coddling of Manning and the favorable officiating is why the Broncos receivers are able to run pass interference routes at their leisure. Whenever you hear these announcers say “pick” its a form of offensive pass interference. Ironically the league hasn’t had a knee jerk reaction to reinforce those rules. So the record book has shattered from this.

The real problem here is it cheapens the record book and cheapens the league as a whole. Just like rules for Michael Jordan ruined the NBA for purists, the same thing is happening in the NFL. What you’re doing is turning the sport into a television show. One where his games are officiated differently than other teams to manufacture a successful environment. Don’t tell me it’s a quarterback driven league when there are just as many who tune in for a stout defense or a record breaking runner. Then you hear the corporate types, who are wholly responsible for this, talk about ratings. Listen, in 1986 the Chicago Bears won Super Bowl XX in front of 120 million viewers. At the time on American television, the top 20 watched shows were 18 Super Bowls, the MASH finale, and Roots. The ratings have always been there, so come off that excuse.

Where Peyton Manning was / is concerned he’s given a pass for his flaws and celebrated for what he has done right as though it’s never been done before. Is he really better than Joe Montana when it comes to pre-snap reads?? He’s a better gun slinger than Dan Fouts?? A better deep ball than Terry Bradshaw or Johnny Unitas?? Is he better than Joe Montana at any aspect of quarterbacking?? I know he wasn’t better than Dan Marino in his prime. Yet you hear these pundits wax philosophical as though there is no footage of the 77 years of the NFL before his arrival.

Well here at Taylor Blitz Times, we do have tons of footage of all the greats. No, Manning isn’t the first who handled pre-snap adjustments. Audibles have been a part of the league for greater than 50 years.  The one description I love is how he plays with what scouts call “nervous feet”, which was to a quarterbacks detriment. All of a sudden pundits helped change that to a positive attribute.  Go figure.  He is a Hall of Fame player but keep it in perspective from a historical sense. Everything happening today isn’t the greatest ever seen and make sure you cover players fairly for what they do. After all it is a sport, right??

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AFC Divisional Playoff: Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

After one of the greatest come from behind victories in NFL history, the Colts have earned a first class trip to New England. Their mission, should they choose to accept it, is to stop the Patriots from making a 3rd straight trip to the AFC Championship Game. The Colts are riding an emotional high but do they have the horses to win a high stakes playoff game against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady??

Andrew Luck came of age in last week's comeback. The Colts will always believe they can win from this point forward, no matter the deficit.

Andrew Luck came of age in last week’s comeback. The Colts will always believe they can win from this point forward, no matter the deficit.

One of the items that gets lost in the aftermath of last week is Indy gave up a near playoff record 513 yards and 44 points. They gave up 378 yards passing and 4 touchdowns to Alex Smith at home, and now they plan to improve on that against Brady on the road?? Never forget weaknesses are magnified in the playoffs. Hard to improve on the 20th ranked defense when they’re not playing well.

Don’t forget the last time Tom Brady saw the Indianapolis Colts, he draped 59 points on them. Of course fans will say Luck is playing better now. However he doesn’t play linebacker or cover receivers. Last week, Pro Bowl DE Robert Mathis had a timely sack and forced fumble, but that was it.

Legarrette Blount has played like Dorsey Levens  of late.

Legarrette Blount has played like Dorsey Levens of late.

Now some may point out the Patriots aren’t the same team they were a year ago and they’re right. Brady has had a modest season by his standards. Yet the Pats have shifted strategies. In their last two games against the Ravens and Buffalo Bills, they rushed for 142 and 267 yards respectively. Those were the 10th and 12th best defenses also, Indy’s is 20th. One was getting revenge on the defending champions that ended their season last year, and the other was against a division rival playing in the equivalent of their Super Bowl.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will pressure Andrew Luck today.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will pressure Andrew Luck today.

The Colts will need to run the football and control the tempo of the game. If not Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will come after Luck. Their not as flashy as a Robert Mathis but they did combine for 19.5 sacks 3 forced fumbles and 4 fumble recoveries. Add to that the genius of Belichick when it comes to taking away an opponents best receiver. He will keep TY Hilton from getting open which will make Luck hold the football even longer which will allow the rush more time to get there.

Everyone has their eye on Andrew Luck but The Chancellor of Football’s is on the defensive alignment and assignments that Belichick will throw at him. I have gone on record calling him the greatest coach of the last 50 years in the NFL. He configured a 2 man line defense that slowed the 90 Bills in Super Bowl XXV. The week before he stopped Joe Montana and the Niners from 3-peating with normal 3-4 and safeties over the top. He stopped The Greatest Show on Turf when he repeated his Super Bowl XXV performance upsetting the Rams in XXXVI. He spent the last decade keeping Peyton, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison from reaching the Super Bowl while he won 3. Each of those teams had 3 Pro Football Hall of Fame talents on those rosters.. Do you really think he can’t stop a second year quarterback and a modest talent in Hilton??

Look for LaGarrette Blount to get the football on a rainy day. The Colts weren’t tackling well last week and will struggle stopping the run. In a physical game the Patriots will win 31-13. What happened to this team when they played earlier against the Seahawks and 49ers?? They rose to the occassion then and Head Coach Chuck Pagano needs them to wake up and get back to that tonight.

Who do you have in this game??

 

 

 

 

NFC Divisional Playoff: New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

As we make our way into the second week of the NFL playoffs, its time to put on the big boy pads as the heavyweights join the fray. First giant to be awakened are the Seattle Seahawks. Not only have they gone 15-1 at home over the last two regular seasons, but Coach Pete Carroll excels at getting his teams up for big games. This dates back to his days when he led the Men of Troy to 2 straight collegiate national championships.

Kam Chancellor's thunderous hit on Vernon Davis a year ago is still the defense's seminal moment in becoming the NFl's most feared defense.

Kam Chancellor’s thunderous hit on Vernon Davis a year ago is still the defense’s seminal moment in becoming the NFL’s most feared defense.

Don’t forget the New Orleans Saints were dethroned as defending Super Bowl champion in Seattle to a team less talented than this one 41-36. Remember the 2010 Seahawks were the first team to enter the playoffs with a losing record. Now fast forward to this year’s 34-7 Monday night massacre in week 13 and keep a few things in mind.

The first is Pete Carroll’s expertise is teaching in the secondary. And let’s face it, The Legion of Boom is led by the league’s best secondary and there isn’t a group close to this one. Not in physicality or cover skills. Richard Sherman has talked the talk while leading the league in interceptions with 8. The safety tandem of Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas is easily the best and most physical. Carroll’s defense and bad weather is the kryptonite to Sean Payton’s offense.

Seattle Seahawks alternate logo.

Seattle Seahawks alternate logo.

The second is the road record from the boys on the bayou. Do you realize they were 1-4 in their last five road games to end the season?? The lone win?? A 17-13 win over the Falcons who were in the midst of a tailspin of a season in week 12. Sure they made team history with a win in Philadelphia but that was against a first time playoff coach in Chip Kelly. A first time playoff starter in Nick Foles and a playoff inexperienced team in the Eagles. Those jitters kept the game close and a more experienced Saints team took advantage.

Yet are the psychological scars from the primetime beat down in Seattle healed?? The Chancellor of Football says no. You can be more ready to play a team but when one physically beats you down, that lives with you in high stakes collision sports and boxing. Have you ever listened to a boxer discuss in an interview how haunted they were when they were physically manhandled by an opponent. If it’s psychological than it’s sociological and a team has to re-live that nightmare.

The Saints bring a defense to Seattle this weekend and is the real wild card in this rematch.

The Saints bring a defense to Seattle this weekend and is the real wild card in this rematch.

However there is a silver lining in Rob Ryan and the Saints defense. You remember him right?? Jerry Jones fired him last year and brought in Lane Kiffin and had the worst ….alright I digress. They come in with the 4th best defense in football and have forced 13 fumbles this year. On a rainy day, this could be where this defense could turn this playoff game.

After reviewing the regular season match-up again, the Saints offense was completely manhandled by the NFL’s #1 defense. One theme that has held is how badly the Saints fare against top defenses on the road. With NFC supremacy on the line, they only scored 7 and had 188 total yards in the Monday night massacre in Seattle. Then with NFC South supremacy on the line two weeks later in Carolina, they score 13 in another loss that relegated them to a wild card.

Russell Wilson is used to playing in the elements. Thanks to his college days in Wisconsin and Seattle as a pro.

Russell Wilson is used to playing in the elements. Thanks to his college days in Wisconsin and Seattle as a pro.

Sandwiched between these was a 27-16 loss to St Louis where they were outhit again. Do you realize these 3 losses were all on the road in weeks 13-16?? Now they are going out on the road again to the rainy Pacific Northwest with that passing game?? It doesn’t look good.

Now this is the playoffs where you elevate your game and this Seahawks defense is the best The Chancellor of Football has seen since the 2000 Ravens. https://taylorblitztimes.com/2013/03/08/2013-seattle-seahawks-preview-ready-to-make-a-move/ This is the team we picked to win the Super Bowl and Percy Harvin is back to add a missing element. The Saints hope to get to him and force a turnover when he gets it. Russell Wilson will play his usual heady game and run when he has to. The coverage of Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell is necessary to keep it going. Yet look for a thunderous shot by Kam Chancellor on Jimmy Graham early in the game to send a message.  The Seahawks are too good and too fast for New Orleans and should win 38-3. The only way the Saints stay in this game is to force some turnovers.

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