Overcoaching: Vol 3. Super Bowl XLIX Edition

Reissued Aritcle: 9, February 2014

“One of the dumbest calls in Super Bowl history that robbed the Seattle Seahawks from establishing a dynasty. Became the turning point in the way Russell Wilson was seen as a leader. He lost his PFHoF status on the goal line in Pheonix and his descent in stature began at that point. Its impossible to see the Seahawks v Patriots in the Super Bowl and not think back to the game and that stupid call at the goal line. Do you realize the play run was the exact same play concept the Tennessee Titans ran that didn’t work in Super Bowl XXXIV?? They just ran it with Kevin Dyson cutting behind TE Frank Wycheck. Gave you the link. Go look… but after you read this…”

Super Bowl XLIX was a great game but the end left a lot of fans empty as Seattle opted for a pass from the 1 with seconds left to play. Immediately I railed it was the worst play call in Super Bowl history on social media. Many former NFLers agreed. So after a small hiatus my thought hadn’t changed and now it was time to revisit another classic case of overcoaching in the NFL.

First off… if anyone thinks the Seattle  throwing that pass at the one yard line was the right play call, then they think Vince Lombardi called the wrong play on the final play of the Ice Bowl. Its that simple. One of his philosophies played out at the goal line during the final seconds of both the 1966 & 1967 NFL Championship Games.

Lombardi’s philosophy was in a pressure situation, players would make mistakes in Tom Landry’s complicated offense. The Cowboys had the ball at the 2 with less than 2 minutes to go down 34-27. They had momentum and had just scored on the drive previous. True to form T Jim Bokeim had a false start… remember they did a lot of shifting on the line. On the final play, which was a rollout, RG Leon Donohue ran past Packer LB Dave Robinson instead of blocking him. Robinson hurried Don Meredith into a game ending endzone interception.

The rubber match for the Ice  Bowl (1967 championship) saw the reverse as the Packers were down to the 2 yard line with less than 2 minutes to go. After two plays and a final timeout, Green Bay was at the 1 with :16 left down 17-14. Where Tom Landry was heard yelling “watch Starr on the rollout”, Lombardi’s Packers went with a QB sneak to win the game. A simplified play.  Years later in recalling Lombardi’s philosophy, G Jerry Kramer said “When the game or life is on the line, you don’t gamble and you put your faith in the defensive player’s chest.”

A philosophy the Seattle Seahawks had believed in until the 1 minute mark of Super Bowl XLIX. Some new age philosophies have made coaches overthink and overcoach situations lately. Ever since that Monday Night game where Brian Westbrook had that breakaway run at the end of the game against the Dallas Cowboys and slid down to run out the clock, people have been overcoaching end of game scenarios.

03_ball_grand_canyon_1_hi_nat1366However I said it right after…that was the same play call the Titans went with in Super Bowl XXXIV when Mike Jones tackled Kevin Dyson at the 1 yard line also. That stacked receiver slant is 0-2 in late Super Bowl moments. Truth is they should have run the ball twice with the read option and kept it on the ground. They should have immediately run a play after Lynch made it to the 1.

Fist lets take a look at the early stages of the game when Marshawn Lynch scored to tie the game at 7.

You’ll note the first run Lynch face initial contact at the 9 ans made it to the 6 1/2 yard line. Then on the touchdown he faced initial contact at the two and powered to more than a yard into the endzone. He’s the best contact runner since Corey Dillon and he was constantly falling forward during the game.

Now we get to the fateful last plays of Super Bowl XLIX.

Had Seattle rushed to the line of scrimmage with the 1:06 left (after Lynch made it to the 1) New England may have let them score (another bone head new age move) to ensure Brady would have a chance with the football and more clock. Don’t tell me Belichick doesn’t think that way because he was lauded for his taking a late game safety against Denver 10 years ago so the Patriots would get the ball back with time and field position… Had Seattle got up and rushed to the line, New England also wouldn’t have sent in their goal line 3 corners package where Seattle would have been better suited to block. Wasn’t that why Pete Carroll said they were wasting a play??

By not rushing back to the line the Seahawks overcoached the situation. There comes a time where coaches have to drop those silly play charts and coach on guts. Lynch had gained positive yards after contact on all of his runs. Even his last carry he broke a tackle at the 4 and made it to the 1. Had they hurried and faced the same defense the next play you don’t think he scores from the 1?? That same personnel he powered through for their first touchdown and 3 yards after contact.

Bill Belichick was saving all of his timeouts and let the clock run down to :32 seconds before Seattle snapped the football.

Yet alas Malcolm Butler ended the Seahawks bid for back to back Super Bowl championships. Coaches have to get back to owning each situation and score first and win the game. Don’t sit and speculate when you can or even if you will score on a later play. You just have to trust your defense. If you can think back to Super Bowl XLVI between the Patriots and the Giants, Ahmad Bradshaw tried not to score when he “accidently” fell in the endzone. Taking a 17-15 lead, the Giant defense held off Tom Brady in that one. You have to rely on your defense.

Another clear case of overcoaching and now Seattle has to let this fester as they ponder an opportunity lost. It could fuel their trip to Super Bowl L in San Francisco’s new stadium. Stay tuned…

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Top Ten Single Season Defenses in NFL History : #8 1975 Minnesota Vikings

Article Reissue: 26, June 2014

Much like the “dead ball” era in major league baseball when pitchers dominated the 1960’s, NFL defenses in the ’70’s were the equivalent in football. Up in Minnesota, the Vikings used a dominant front four to limit opponents to 225.2 yards per game. Far and away the best in the league that year. In fact the ’75 Steelers, #9 on this list, was ranked 4th allowing 261.5 yards for the season. They only gave up 180 points or 12.3 pts per game in the ’75 campaign.

Interestingly this team didn’t use it’s cold weather advantage to compile these statistics. They played 3 of their final 4 games on the road. One of those came in the temperature controlled Silverdome against the Lions. Within their statistics you can definitely see their dominance. They held 6 teams to 10 points or less while ranking #1 against the pass (115.8 yds / gm) and #1 against the run (109.4 yds/ gm).  This team threatened to go undefeated bolting out to a 10-0 start.

Hall of Fame DE Carl Eller warming up pregame.

Led by All Pro and Pro Bowl DT Alan Page, this group put significant pressure on the quarterback. Free Safety Paul Krause, the NFL’s all time leading interceptor had 10 on the season. He made the Pro Bowl in ’75 along with MLB Jeff Siemon who picked off 3 more passes and CB Bobby Bryant who snatched 6. They were 3rd in interceptions with 28.

The only knock on this group is they played just 2 top 10 offenses the entire year. However they did face the #1 ranked offense in the Buffalo Bills in the season finale. OJ was threatening for 2,000 again and playing at home, was held to 57 yards rushing to finish with 1,817. They held the Bills to just 13 points and forced them to miss the playoffs.

Hall of Fame FS Paul Krause. The all time NFL interception leader with 81.

From this group, Alan Page, Paul Krause, and DE Carl Eller all made the Pro Football Hall of Fame. There are many who believe DE Jim Marshall should be in as well. This team went into the playoffs with a head of steam. They lost 17-10, when Roger Staubach hit Drew Pearson in the famous “Hail Mary” with :24 left in the NFC Divisonal Playoffs.

There stellar defensive season ranks 8th in The Chancellor of Football’s list.

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Phillip Rivers As Head Coach of The Buffalo Bills Is Ridiculous

Yesterday friends started peppering me on social media about Phillip Rivers interviewing to be Buffalo Bills HC. This is the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen since he was just coaching high school. Nothing says how far Buffalo’s front office has fallen then to even grant this interview after that disastrous press conference. Right now there is a petition swriling in upstate New York with 69,000 signatures to reinstate Sean McDermott.

My sentiment is he should go and we need a proven Head Coach who will know how to mine a title from the ore of an aging roster. Too many are enjoying the “Aww shucks” demeanor and channelling this into a he could do the job and was a leader of offenses in the league. Lets take a closer look at Rivers’ effectiveness.

#1 Phillip Rivers in 2010 was the leader on a team that finished #1 on offense and #1 on defense. Do you realize this is the only team in the Super Bowl era that had this distinction and didn’t make the playoffs?? The others?? The 1977 Dallas Cowboys (12-2) who ran away with the Super Bowl XII Lombardi & the 1987 San Francisco 49ers (13-2) who should have won XXII but were upset in the playoffs by the Vikings. I covered this anomaly in my 2011 Chargers preview. How well was his leadership then??

#2 Phillip Rivers led his team to the playoffs 7 times in (now) 18 years to the playoffs and only made 1 AFC Championship Game. That was closed by an electric performance of Shawn Merriman. He had a 5-7 record in the playoffs and all of a sudden he knows what it takes to get Buffalo to the Super Bowl in a win at all costs within 3 years?

Yes he is a good soundbite and deserves credit or coming to try to save the Colts season but lets be real here… he went 0-3 and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt and I showed you how anemic those numbers are. Remember? Oh you don’t…

Yes 5.9 yards per attempt would have been 30th if he had enough pass attempts. He’d be with JJ McCarthy who is getting laughed at in Minnesota.

Now all of a sudden he is going to know what Defensive Coordinator to hire to mesh with the offense he is going to bring in. And what offense is that by the way?? Now he is developing talent and knows what to coach based upon high school kids.

Coaching an all white high school team is not the same as coaching an NFL ball club where the majority of those players are black and why doesn’t this same line of biased thinking not extend to black players?

Cam Newton was more accomplished than Rivers when he played, why not call him?? He was an NFL MVP and made it to Super Bowl 50. I’m sure the GM could help Cam get the right coaches in a committee’d approach to it. Evaluate with scouts to know who to select in the draft and free agency. He’ll hire the DLine Coach, LB Coach, Secondary Coach.

You know… Cam will grow into the positi0n. If my assertion sounds ridiculous to you then you know how ridiculous Phillip Rivers sounds to me.

Don’t even have me go into the qualified black coaches in the NFL like Eric Bienemy or even Duce Staley who haven’t been given a shot after a decade plus coaching in the NFL.

Tired of the privileged ploy and my choice is a proven Coach in Bill Belichick I already told you in the last article.

Truth of the matter is GM Brandon Beane never should have kept his job. His roster was atrocious as was the interview selection of Phillip Rivers as Head Coach. It was bad enough you and Terry Pagula looked like Montgomery Burns and Smithers at that debacle of a press conference. Hire Rivers as Coach and you’ll become a full fledged cartoon.

Thank You Taylor Blitz Time Readers!

Thank you Taylor Blitz Times readers as we had a record month in December that has drawn in more readers than ever before. 30,424 to be exact. To those new readers  who subscribed there are 725 articles covering all the players, teams, and historical articles. So please go to the search bar or subject categories and look for a particular team, player or subject, you’ll be surprised what you’ll find.

This endeavor was started to highlight defensive football and offer an alternative look at the game through the eyes of a historian. Most football shows have deevolved into staring at stats and only talking through the lense of a Walter Mitty type talking about the quarterback position. All the patterned nuance of hitting and visceral football that you and I both grew up playing gets lost. That essence that made us fall in love with the game.

So why The Chancellor of Fooball? Its simple… the love of the game is to cover every single football team and player throughout history, not just my Buffalo Bills. The American Football League and NFL teams before the merger. Writing and talking about your favorite team is too easy to me. It became a challenge to cover every single team with the same fervor than just who you are a fan of. That was my challenge to myself.

The new goal is to see Taylor Blitz Times hit our 1,000,000th read! So yes share the article, comment, agree with points or disagree with points, just be respectful while doing so. I want someone showing their son, nephew, or daughter a player from the past without stumbling across rancor in the comment section. Its not what I built here and as I curate my work its fun seeing articles showing up in places with youngsters because of such. Now you’ll see an occassional cute model for some eye candy but that’s all. Hey if the networks do it why can’t I? But no mudslinging back and forth you see on Twitter, Threads, or Youtube.

For those that are new here I want to encourage you to look around and there were several projects from the past that will be reissued this month. Some are having additional videos or pics loaded up with them to give them a fresher look. Then there are several projects from years gone by you’ll find interesting

Top Ten Single Season Defenses – An 11 article offering where the top 10 received their own article and my list of those that almost made the cut. Criteria? What were they ranked for the season, record vs ProBowl QBs, how many teams held under 10 points in their season and how they did against Top 10 offenses that year. There are 10 more criteria and too much to cover. This link takes you to the “honorable mention” once there go to the bottom and hit next to cycle through the 10 articles.

Where were you when Dwight Clark made “The Catch” to begin the 49ers dynasty of the 1980s? What about the hit in the 1990 NFC Championship that took out Joe Montana for two years? Well you can hear from Giant Leonard Marshall & Mark Collins and their thougts clicking the link. And Joe Montana , I loved seeing him get absolutely decked but this last link is for appreciating the greatest QB in the history of the game? Wouldn’t it be cool to see videos and NFL Films to show you how they were thought of at the time? Click the link… you’ll be right there.

What about The Pro Football Hall of Fame? Well I can tell you my first two subjects Robert Brazile & the late Kevin Greene were written on the same night. Kevin & his lovely wife Tara had me at his 2016 PFHoF induction and I was in attendance for Mr Brazile in 2018. I had the chance to meet him since I had been invited by Jerry Kramer to the induction ceremony in 2018.

With Kevin Greene after the Induction ceremony.

All of this stems from advocating for players and coaches who I believed belong in The Pro Football Hall of Fame. In all 14 of the 22 I’ve written about and sent letters for have been enshrined. I’m still connected with each family and its not lost on me as we head to Super B0wl LX in San Fran not to remember Kevin & Tara learning he had made it in San Francisco before Super Bowl L.

Who did I hear he had made it into Canton? NFL Network? ESPN? No Alicia Kramer, Jerry’s daughter after the disappointment he didn’t get in again. Which made this picture and the trip to Canton in 2018 so special! Very emotional hug right as Rich Eisen was telling everyone to sit down as The Gold Jacket broadcast was seconds from beginning. She was her father’s presenter on Saturday inside the stadium.

What about retrospecives on Ronnie Lott, Jack Tatum, OJ Simpson, Dick Butkus, or the legendary Johnny Unitas? I just gave you 14 links to articles out of 726 or 1.92% of all the articles compiled here with video and personal touch commentary. What other players or stories or conjecture pieces are in the other 712?? Thats for you to go and look for whatever you want to look up. Pay attention to the comment section also you never know what former players have stopped by to leave remarks.

Grab your old man and ask him who Jaguar Jon Arnett was and show him this.RIP he was a friend to Taylor Blitz Times and commented often. As did Chris Burford, do you know who that was? The first ever player signed by Lamar Hunt to play for the Dallas Texans/Kansas City Chiefs. Another friend to Taylor Blitz over the years.

Well enjoy and remember: If you enjoy or learn something like sometthing. Comment on it let me know you were here and what you thought. If you do that go ahead and share then subscribe.

Hey….another one of those cute football ladies again.

I’m off to have a dirty Martini with the Mrs. Thanks and I hope you come back and tell your friends to look up Taylor Blitz Times.

 

 

 

The Lie Behind Quarterback Passer Rating & Several Useless Statistics

The NFL’s quarterback rating system has been in place since 1973 but wasn’t a mainstay when it comes to statistics until the mid 1980s. Think about it, for the championship games and seasons of the 1960s and 70s you can’t think of the quarterback passer rating of any qb of the past. Yet you can rememeber the NFL record for TD passes with 36 (YA Tittle, George Blanda 1963) or the first 4,000 yard passer in Joe Namath in the AFL in 1968. Yet none of us old heads could tell you what Johnny Unitas Quarterback Rating was in any of his record breaking MVP seasons because it wasn’t around.

In reality new statistical data is created to prop up a player whose performance doesn’t match an evaluator’s appreciation. You should never have to invent a statistic to improve the view of a player you support but people do it all the time. Now with NextGenStats or PFF…sigh just stop it.

Lets face it these ratings are just another way for people to sound smart who can’t play football and show they have expertise. How many times have you asked yourself “Why is a perfect Quarterback Rating game 158.3?” What even makes up the current rating and how can you equate it to winning? The bottom line is you can’t. It’s as scientifically useless as analytics has been to NFL Head Coaches in recent years.

Sometime around Super Bowl XXVII I came across a statistic that ran true for every champion. Each had a quarterback who averaged 7-9 yards per pass attempt and from that moment on this became a go to measure that usually told you the fortunes of the football team as well. Take a look right now for the 2025 season:

All of these teams are in the playoff hunt. Mac Jones started 8 games for the 9-4 San Francisco 49ers and was 5-3 in those contests with several pundits saying he ran the 49ers offense better than incumbent Brock Purdy. You see last year’s MVP Josh Allen along with Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott who have been discussed as this year’s frontrunners.

So let’s take a look at the bottom of this exact same list for 2025 for the worst rated quarterbacks (for record here is the complete list):

Now you might need a drink as everything you knew is about to be blown away. Dillon Gabriel is ranked 34th with 5.1 yards I gave you the link to see the entire list. Five of these quarterbacks have been benched with a 41 year old Joe Flacco being traded. Only Bo Nix and Baker Mayfield in a bad division are the only 2 in playoff contention. They’re tied for the NFC South lead with a 7-6 record and if they lose the division won’t make a wildcard.

Yet this doesn’t hold true when you plug in the NFL’s quarterbacks by because a benched Spencer Rattler who went 1-7 (78.9 passer rating) is just below Bo Nix (86.1 passer rating) & Trevor Lawrence  (90.1 passer rating) and only Lawrence (20th) made the NFL’s top 25. Where can you equate team success when Denver looks like they will have homefield advantage??

However statistics like this can be completely manipulated by scared quarterbacks who complete 4 yard passes on 3rd and 6. His team is punting but his QBR and completion percentage will go up. The Chancellor of Football has been arguing againt this with fans and lets show it to you.

Did you know if an NFL QB went 8 of 9 for 27 yards and 1 TD you’d have a 116.2 passer rating? Consequently if that same QB went 16 of 25 for 229 yards and an interception his rating would be 76.2. Yet this would be 7.75 yards per attempt and face it the additional 8 completions and 202 yards would gain how many 1st downs and put his team in scoring position how many more times?

So for my man Quincy Carter, my friends at Pro Football Reference has the NFL passer rating calculator for you to plug in numbers at your leisure. When you want to look at the quarterback and always go with their yards per attempt, yardage and touchdowns to interceptions. Toss the NFL passer rating away as its a useless stat to easily manipulated. Same with this current QBR that has been pushed lately.  The same with completion percentage as a quarterback can throw 10 bubble screens in a game and bloat their stats as well. Its all about yardage as this is the unit used to measure the NFL’s best defense, best offense, rushing champions, etc…

Keep all of this in mind when you hear the talking heads who just cite statistics without context to showcase they understand pro football.

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For the record… the great Chris Berman is NOT a talking head, he is the Walter Cronkite of football coverage and glad he and Booger McFarland are doing NFL Primetime on ESPN+.

AJ Brown Dilemma With Jalen Hurts

Now before we start this off keep in mind Taylor Blitz Times has been advocating for Jalen Hurst since he came up for the NFL Draft in 2020. In Shameful Impatience With Black QBs Take Two, we let everyone know the values he would bring to his future team and maturity would make him a franchise QB. Or the article when The Chancellor called for Hurts to replace Carson Wentz and trying to pinpoint when the Eagles would make the move. It pains me to say Hurts hasn’t developed enough as an NFL quarterback.

Yes he has gone to 2 Super Bowls and was the MVP in LIX but the nuance of playing QB in the NFL goes beyond The Pistol read option, single high throw deep play we see in Philadelphia. Where are the back shoulder throws Aaron Rodgers & Peyton Manning have built Hall of Fame careers on? Where are the slants or hot routes that come from Hurts recognizing a defense pre-snap that puts AJ Brown in a situation where he will win off the line?? So lets reword that… Nick Siriani and the Eagles Coaching Staff hasn’t developed Hurts enough as an NFL quarterback. Madden Coaches.

Caught in this vice is All Pro Receiver AJ Brown having a down year for the 2nd straight year in the middle of a possible Hall of Fame career. In ’22 & ’23 Brown had 1,496 and 1,456 yards on 88 & 106 receptions respectively, he is on pace to have 65 receptions with 867 yards. His frustrations are warranted as the Eagles can’t adjust the game plan to include one of the best receivers in football. He has a right to want to produce and make the stats, accolades, and maximize his chance at the Hall of Fame. Its not selfish… If his stats stay low, you can bet the Eagles will come back and want to rework his contract…. guaranteed.

One aspect of his game is he isn’t a total burner on the outside but he does make contested catches against close guarding corners. Hurts has to let the ball go and develop the trust that seems to be lacking. A few years back he gave AJ those chances so what’s happened??

Well here we are with another supposed set of coaching gurus who can’t scheme their top passing weapon open. I’ve never heard something so pathetic in my life. Jerry Rice’s whole career the 49ers would have 5 plays within their first 15 to get the ball to him. They’d move him in formation as well as have him in motion. It is not that hard.

Y0u can’t move him inside and isolate him on an OLB when the team is in a predictable zone alignment?? What are you watching game film for?? Well here lets give you Madden Coaches a quick example if you want to stay with simplified reads and play calls … sigh.

 

Line up in this formation and just run double slants with Jalen Hurts under center. Get out of the Pistol as it limits linebacker influence and do this on a play where you expect zone coverage. Have Brown as the “X” and Smith “Z”… If it’s Cover 3, Hurts throws it right on his 5th step to Brown right as he’s breaking with a low trajectory throw. If they run Cover 2 just hit Smitty  on the post.

You can do it with a FB in the game or do it from a 2 TE alignment with the second TE lining up in the FB position. Hurts…no dancing around you throw it right when your 5th step plants whether going “X” Brown or “Z” Smitty. Make sure your eyes are on that Free Safety to not tip off the MLB in case their running a “Tampa Cover 2.” 5th step…turn and fire.

Here is the practical application on 1st down by one of the greatest passing teams in history with The Greatest Show on Turf so don’t tell me it doesn’t work:

Ok… they threw it to Smitty who was in place of where HOF Isaac Bruce was but I promise you any defense will adjust to their FS in the middle and open up this same play for Brown on his post. This play has been in the NFL for 50 plus years and Brown can muscle through any CB trying to jam him so this is a fool proof play. Get out of that jackass Pistol and open up the passing lanes by holding the linebackers.

Truth of the matter is the Eagles haven’t developed the nuances of playing QB with Jalen Hurts and its shown. Any Madden Coach can have 200 plays but if they don’t tailor it to the personnel they have its useless. More important if the plays don’t have progression / priority changes based on the possible defense from the exact same look, its also worthless.

Beyond that, skillful play selection should culminate in moving or influencing a specific defensive player to react in a way to attack him later in the game. Same look, same formation, same down and distance and make adjustments to what he’ll cheat on when he sees the formation set up for the 3rd, 4th or 5th time in the game.

To play for another Lombardi you have to get the ball to AJ Brown.

The Eagles have kept it simple and not worked on holding the safeties with your eyes and throwing on time to a spot on the field. Throw your receivers open. Teach / Coach the full nuance of an NFL quarterback. This was something I warned in my original article “The NFL’s Shameful Impatience With Black Quarterbacks” and its time to develop the full arsenal of Jalen Hurts.

Get the ball to AJ Brown… sigh. There should be no less 8-10 throws to him per game and get him engaged early. Its no secret the game doesn’t begin in a receiver’s mind until that first catch and he gets hit. Every conversation the best receivers always admit this so why not get the ball to Brown 2 or 3 times on the first drive alone? Hurts has to pull the trigger and throw it to him and quit playing in fear of throwing an interception.

The psyche of this offense and their ability to defend their Super Bowl championship depends on it.

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