Alex Smith v. Colin Kaepernick: In Whom Do You Trust

Today’s football game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs isn’t just another football game. The saga playing out will be the Alex Smith v Colin Kaepernick debate. Did the 49ers keep the right quarterback?? Most 49er fans think they did. Is that because they’re blind loyalists and wanted to move on with the new QB??

Alex Smith goes back to San Fran to take on the 49ers

Alex Smith goes back to San Fran to take on the 49ers

This has a similar backdrop to the 1994 game between the Chiefs and 49ers. In that one Steve Young brought the 49ers to Arrowhead to face his predecessor Joe Montana, now a Chief. However this one is taking place in San Francisco. Its a shame this game couldn’t happen at Candlestick Park with all the history.

For the record, The Chancellor of Football believes the 49ers kept the wrong quarterback.

Short sighted 49er fans forget that Smith drove Harbaugh’s first team to an NFC best 13-3 record. Then knocked off the Saints with “The Catch III” playoff winner to Vernon Davis in the final seconds. Smith didn’t lose that NFC Championship Game to the Giants. Those two muffed punts by Kyle Williams did them in.

In 2012 the 49ers were an established contender at 7-4, when Harbaugh made the switch to Kapernick. Smith said all the right things as he watched the 49ers make the Super Bowl. They lost that game to a superior team and the game revealed Kaepernick’s fatal flaw that still haunts him.

Kaepernick is dazzling when he runs but suspect when throwing.

Kaepernick is dazzling when he runs but suspect when throwing.

He makes splash plays when he runs the football but hasn’t developed as a downfield quarterback. Watch his play. He can’t throw his receiver open to a designated spot in the defense, and relies on a straight path to drill the football to his receivers. In other words, he can only complete passes like a game of catch. He hasn’t shown the ability to throw on time and drop the ball in over the linebackers or the fade routes to Crabtree Richard Sheman was talking about.

This is why you see so many of his interceptions by defenders undercutting his throws. Think back to the Monday Night game against Chicago. Kaepernick hasn’t developed the touch that failed him on that final throw in Super Bowl XLVII, and is still throwing the same way. Relies too much on running and scrambling instead of allowing the specificity of the planned offensive play to take shape.

As these two went on separate paths, the 49ers went 12-4 and did make it back to the NFC Championship Game. Not only did Smith have a better record the year before with the 49ers but went 11-5 with a new team and new offense. Yes the Chiefs lost in the AFC Wildcard 45-44 but it was the most points scored by a team that lost an NFL playoff game ever.

Is Harbaugh going to make it in San Francisco past this year??

Is Harbaugh going to make it in San Francisco past this year??

Last year Kaepernick threw for 3,197 yards 21 TDs to only 8 interceptions. Smith tossed 23 TDs, 7 interceptions and 3,313 yards. So the tale of the tape is close.

Isn’t it ironic that after a week in which the NFL community is questioning whether Harbaugh has lost his locker room, here comes what ultimately could be his demise in San Francisco?? The Chancellor of Football told you before the season, Harbaugh will be out after this year.

Both teams are showing up to today’s game at 2-2 and Smith knows this defense pretty well. If you think this game doesn’t mean a lot to him, look at last week’s footage between the Texans and Bills. Before that game Ryan Fitzpatrick passionately told the Texans what beating his former team meant.

If you thought the buzzards are starting to circle above Harbaugh now, don’t let them lose this football game. By the way…Joe Montana and the Chiefs won that game in 1994 too.

Thanks for reading and please share the article.

First Quarter Report Card: New Orleans Saints

It is totally amazing how in the game of football, a team can look nearly identical as it once did but the results are totally different. Take the 2014 New Orleans Saints. Here at Taylor Blitz Times The Chancellor of Football posed this question: When do you say when? What were the Saints about to sacrifice when they were about to commit heavily financially in Jimmy Graham??

Will the Saints turn it around in 2014??

Will the Saints turn it around in 2014??

Over the first quarter of the new season it looks like they sacrificed everything. When it was time to sign TE Jimmy Graham it was expressed he was the security blanket Brees needed. This isn’t true. He’s a weapon but the true chain mover of this offense was RB Darren Sproles.

Every time the Saints needed a first down they went to Sproles on screens, circle routes out of the backfield, draws, you name it. They haven’t had the same returns going to Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson. A combined 6 receptions for 40 yards and no big plays. Last year after 4 games Sproles had 23 receptions for 277 yards and 1 touchdown.

Defenses are focusing in on this and the Saints first down totals 30, 27, 26, and 20 are diminishing per game. You won’t see it in Drew Brees totals but you see it here and in defensive statistics.

Jarius Byrd is out for the year.

Jarius Byrd is out for the year.

Last year, the Saints owned time of possession and wound up with the league’s 4th best defense. In 2013 the Saints were 3rd in time of possession where this year they are 16th. Couple that with poor tackling and free agent losses and they’ve plummeted to 30th on defense. Allowing 89 more yards and 27.5 points per game.

They have a chance to right the ship in the upcoming weeks against the Bucs, Lions, Packers, and Panthers. None are offensive juggernauts and Green Bay is ranked 28th. ESPN and their talking heads keep mentioning Aaron Rodgers like this is 2010.

However Brees is playing like its 2010 as he has completed 71% of his passes for 1,203 yards and 7 TDs. He leads the NFL’s #3 offense into battle with the 26th, 1st, 22nd, and 24th ranked defenses in this next quarter. To get back into this season the Saints need to go 3-1 in this next quarter to give themselves a chance. If they can get to 4-4 or even 5-3 by the midway point, they will put themselves in wildcard contention.

If Atlanta keeps backsliding with their 31st ranked defense, they can still grab the division.

Thanks for reading and please share the article.

 

First Quarter Report Card New England Patriots

After watching last night’s obliteration of the New England Patriots, it’s time grade this team. Did we really just watch Tom Brady get benched?? Last night just looked strange seeing Belichick and Brady on the business end of a 41-14 bludgeoning. However when you looked around, there are no other playmakers on this team.

Tom Brady's frustrating 2014 start.

Tom Brady’s frustrating 2014 start.

Of course you don’t want to overreact to 1 game but we have now played 4. A quarter of the season is a good enough sample size to assess how a team is doing and project how they will do. So far Brady has been sacked 9 times but he’s been hurried and hit many more. The offensive line has been shuffled and one glaring front office decision is truly haunting this team.

Remember when the Patriots didn’t re-sign Wes Welker and decided to waste $31 million on Danny Amendola?? We’ll get into that but…how do you pay that to a marginal receiver who was once cut on Hard Knocks?? Do you realize New England has the NFL’s 29th ranked offense?? Only Tampa, Jacksonville, and Oakland have been more anemic. Right now the Patriots are ranked 30th passing the football…30th!!

The glaring lack of receivers to get deep is killing this team. Concentrate your defense 20 yards or less and you can bottle them up. Denver did this in the AFC Championship Game and it’s the blueprint opponents have used ever since. New England has averaged 20 points while facing the 7th, 17th, 20th, and 11th ranked defenses in this 1st quarter of the season. Patriots-Logo1

Now they go home to face the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals who boast the 14th ranked defense. Two things to keep in mind though. Brady and company could only muster 16 points at home against the 20th ranked Raider defense a few weeks back. Another is the Bengals held New England to their lowest output of the season last year with just 6 points.

The surprising part of last night’s loss was how gashed the Patriots 4th ranked defense was. They nearly gave up two 100 yard rushers in Jamaal Charles (92 yds) and Knile Davis (107 yds). Keep in mind one of their 2 wins came against the Raiders who are not only dead last on offense, but just fired head coach Dennis Allen.

This Sunday is a must win game against Cincinnati. They need to prove to themselves they are still among the league’s elite. If they lose this game they’ll have to travel to Buffalo with a 1-2 road record and 2-3 record overall. The Bills boast the 10th best defense in football right now. Of course some will scoff “Didn’t the Bills just bench their quarterback?”  Which is true. However with just 4 touchdowns so far this season, isn’t that what New England did to Tom Brady last night??  These are interesting times.

Thanks for reading and please share the article.

The RGIII v. Kirk Cousins Debate

With the Washington Redskins coming off a 45-14 loss to the New York Giants last night, many would think this would be the worse time for this conversation. Au contraire, for no time would be better for this debate than coming off this abominable performance.

Cousins or RGIII??

Cousins or RGIII??

Supporters of Robert Griffin III heard all week how Cousins was going to supplant him as the starter. The Chancellor of Football is one, for the record, who believes Cousins will become the permanent starter. Those in Griffin’s camp could be heard in the aftermath of Cousin’s 4 interception performance against New York. Yet were these people the week before?

Cousins dazzled in a week 2 shootout against the Eagles. He had gone 30 of 48 for 427 yards and 3 touchdowns. In that game he showed the complete package an NFL quarterback is supposed to have in his passing arsenal. The ability to make the proper read and trajectory on his throws. To throw the football on time within the zone of a defense.

So what happened this week??

Cousins was unglued by the Giants defense.

Cousins was unglued by the Giants defense.

To some it could have been the fact Cousins was starting in a prime time game where most of America was watching and came out nervous. There is some truth there but ultimately the clock in his head as a QB was thrown off by the early sack and forced fumble by Matthias Kiwanuka. One, two, three and boom he was hit and the ball came out. He played rushed the rest of the night.

A closer look reveals that ace Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell tricks quarterbacks into false pre-snap reads. His defenses for years have masked their intentions well. I can think of several plays where he confused Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLVI. His pre-snap read was a Cover 2 and at the snap of the ball, the two safeties stayed put 15 yards downfield. Fewell had a linebacker take the deep middle. Take  a look…

If Fewell can confuse a Hall of Famer playing in his 5th Super Bowl, he can rattle a young QB with less than 15 starts.

RGIII has to learn to let route options 2 & 3 open up downfield and less of this.

RGIII has to learn to let route options 2 & 3 open up downfield and less of this.

Robert Griffin III upon his return has to show he can be durable enough to be a starter. An even closer look shows he has to stay with the full development of a play from a specificity standpoint. Many times he comes off his receivers too early and either scrambles or quickly flips it to the running back. He has to learn to let the pass patterns move the defense to their predesignated spots to open where his passes should be thrown.

Its this facet of the game Griffin III needs to develop where Cousins has, but needs experience against complex defenses. This is the impetus on what will happen between these two. Which will come first??

Thanks for reading and please share the article.

 

Top Ten Single Season Defenses in NFL History : #3 2013 Seattle Seahawks

As we’re winding down this series of greatest single season defenses, the first question asked was where did the ’13 Seahawks belong in this group??

The Legion of Boom reigns supreme after 2013.

The Legion of Boom reigns supreme after 2013.

Do you realize Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith not only wasn’t a week 1 starter, but isn’t guaranteed to be one at Outside Linebacker for 2014?? He replaced  KJ Wright #50 who had been injured. Its the depth and lack of drop off in production that makes this group great. They ranked #1 and were led by The Legion of Boom secondary which boasts 3 Pro Bowl Players.

Starting with defending Taylor Blitz Times Defensive Player of the Year Richard Sherman, who led the NFL with 8 interceptions. He returned those for 158 yards and a significant week 4 touchdown. He also was 7th on the team in tackles with 48, defensed 17 passes and recovered 2 fumbles.

Kam Chancellor's thunderous hit on Vernon Davis a year ago is still the defense's seminal moment in becoming the NFl's most feared defense.

Kam Chancellor’s thunderous hit on Vernon Davis a year ago is still the defense’s seminal moment in becoming the NFl’s most feared defense.

By the time you add Pro Bowl FS Earl Thomas (105 tackles/ 5 ints/ 11 pass defensed/ 2 forced fumbles) & the thunderous shots by Pro Bowl SS Kam Chancellor (99 tackles / 3 ints/ 12 passes defensed/ 1 forced fumble) you have one of the best secondaries in history. That’s what a championship can elevate you to. Three of four in the secondary made the Pro Bowl.

This group was #1 overall (273.6 ypg.) while finishing #1 against the pass allowing 172 yards per game. Those stats were 28 and 22 ypg. better than the defenses ranked 2nd. Quarterbacks finished with a 63.4 rating in a modern game where the rules have been altered to favor the pass. How does that rank against other great defenses??

  • 2013 Seahawks passer rating allowed 63.4
  • 1985 Chicago Bears passer rating allowed 51.2
  • 1991 Philadelphia Eagles passer rating allowed 52.1
  • 2000 Baltimore Ravens passer rating allowed 62.5
Chancellor brings the intimidation factor. At 232 lbs. he hits with the force of a linebacker.

Chancellor brings the intimidation factor. At 232 lbs. he hits with the force of a linebacker.

For the season they held 7 opponents to 10 points or less and one of those was the 4th best offense in football, the New Orleans Saints.  An 8th team held to less than 10 was the record setting #1 offense of the Broncos in the Super Bowl when they could only muster 8 points. The highest scoring team in history with 606 points averaging 37.8 per game, was held scoreless until the last play of the 3rd quarter. By then they were down 36-0.

Avril terrorized quarterbacks rushing them from the front side.

Avril terrorized quarterbacks rushing them from the front side.

Before their 43-8 destruction of Denver, they bested Brees and the Saints in the playoffs were they held them to 15 points as well.  They did lose to one Pro Bowl quarterback in Andrew Luck but that is offset by shutting down the 5,477 yards and 55 TD record setting Peyton Manning in Super Bowl XLVIII. So 3-1 against Pro Bowl QBs and holding 2 of them to less than 10 points is strong defensive football. Keep in mind the defense was missing CB Brandon Browner (suspension) and LB KJ Wright (injury) or the Broncos may have been shut out.

By the time we get to the pass rush of Cliff Avril (8.5 sacks) and Michael Bennett(8 sacks) rushing side by side from the strong side, this group plays front 7 by committee. Utilizing blitzes they garnered 44 sacks while surrendering an NFL best 231 points. In contrast the 1971 Dallas Cowboys who won Super Bowl VI or the Doomsday Defense gave up 222 in 14 games.

So yes The Legion of Boom belongs on this list. To do it in the modern NFL where if you sneeze near a receiver it’s a penalty, they gave a world class performance. One of the best in history and #3 on The Chancellor of Football’s list.

Thanks for reading and please share the article.

Top Ten Single Season Defenses in NFL History : #6 1971 Baltimore Colts

One of the greatest defensive performances in NFL history happened in 1971. The defending Super Bowl champion Colts had the #1 defense and drug a struggling offense to the AFC Championship Game. They allowed the 2nd fewest yards per game mark in the NFL since 1970 with 203.7 yards. With only 140 points allowed, it would have been an NFL record had the ’69 Vikings not broken the ’68 Colts old scoring record of 144 with 133.

Bubba smith coming off the ball.

Bubba smith coming off the ball.

One interesting aspect of the ’71 Colts was how anemic their once great passing offense had become.  The 38 year old Unitas completed just 52.3% of his passes for 3 TDs and 9 interceptions. Earl Morrall, who was 37, fared no better with an even lower 50.3% with 7 TDs to 12 ints. They were 21st in passing offense and 12th overall making the defense work harder.

During the ’71 season the defense held 7 of their 14 opponents to 10 points or less. Including 5 of their first 6. Baltimore’s D recorded 3 shutouts and held their first playoff opponent to 3 points. In facing 5 top ten offenses that year, they were 4-1 and held two of those to 10 points or less. Yet why aren’t they remembered??

Now the media anoints others of that era and obscures this team…lets compare a few:

  • 1971 Baltimore Colts – #1 overall / 203.7 yds all. / 140 points given up / 28 int
  • 1971 Dallas Cowboys – #3 overall / 243.3 yds all. / 222 points given up / 26 int
  • 1972 Miami Dolphins – #1 overall / 235.5 yds all. / 171 points given up / 26 int
  • 1970 Minnesota Vikings – #1 overall / 200.2 yds all. / 143 points given up / 28 int
  • 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers – #4 overall / 261.5 yds all. / 162 points given up / 27 ints

Right now fans of the Doomsday Defense, The No Name Defense, and the Steel Curtain are saying to themselves ‘Its not all about stats”. Which is true until you realize this was a defending Super Bowl champion that made it back to the AFC Championship Game despite its offense. Had they won against Miami, they would have taken on the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl VI. Well that is who they beat in Super Bowl V to become champions in the first place.

Mike Curtis tackling Cliff Branch.

Mike Curtis tackling Cliff Branch.

Led by Pro Bowlers DE Bubba Smith, MLB Mike Curtis, LB Ted Hendricks, SS Jerry Logan, and FS Rick Volk, its amazing only Hendricks is in the Hall of Fame. Curtis definitely should be but when you think of Hendricks making the Hall that is primarily from his work with the Raiders.

This was the last hurrah for the Colts as everything came apart starting in 1972. That was the year owner Carroll Rosenbloom swapped franchises with Robert Irsay. Head Coach Don McCafferty fired, John Unitas sent to the bench and the run as an NFL elite team ended.

Yet a tremendous performance by the defense in 1971 allowed them to hang on for one more season.

Dedicated to the memories of Don McCafferty, Bubba Smith, & Carroll Rosenbloom